Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil and petrochemicals, national defense, beauty care, and banking showing strong gains, while sectors like comprehensive services, real estate, media, construction materials, and retail faced declines [1][1][1] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase around the 4000-point mark, with a long-term upward trend expected to continue [1][1][1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in shipbuilding, precious metals, energy metals, and banking, while internet services, software development, cultural media, and electronic components lagged behind [1][1] - The market is in a critical phase for positioning for the upcoming year, with a likelihood of continued consolidation around the 4000-point level [1][1] Investor Sentiment - The stabilization of A-share indices is seen as a positive factor for short-term market confidence [1] - Despite geopolitical tensions leading to cautious funding behavior, the potential for increased market volatility remains [1] - Mid-term outlook remains optimistic due to sustained global tech investment enthusiasm, ongoing "anti-involution" policies, and increased retail investment [1][1]

丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 海外策略：美股 AI 泡沫是否存在？进行到哪儿 了？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从估值、流动性和资本开支三个角度来看，美股 AI 当前并没有明显的出现泡沫的迹象。从估值 来看，当前纳斯达克指数当前估值难言较低，但相比于 2000 年科网泡沫时期仍有差距。从流 动性角度看，12 月美联储降息的预期正逐步减弱，市场流动性过度充裕的可能性不大。分析资 本开支数据，美国企业层面的扩张行为与科网泡沫时期有所不同，当前的扩张行为仍较为有序。 市场仍然未到需要担忧 AI 泡沫是否会破裂的阶段，即使最终会形成泡沫，当前也只是在形成泡 沫的早期演进期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 海外策略：美股2] AI 泡沫是否存在？进行到哪儿 了？ [Table_Summary2] 市场焦点 1：美股 AI 泡沫是否存在？进行到哪儿了？ 导读：近期随着对于 ...

A股三大指数低开低走，截至收盘，沪指跌0.81%，深成指跌0.92%，创业板指跌1.16%。沪指、深成指盘中跌超1%。沪深两市成交额1.93万亿，较上一个 交易日放量153亿。全市场超4100只个股下跌。 从板块来看，AI应用概念逆势上涨，榕基软件、浪潮软件、宣亚国际、华胜天成2连板。半导体概念表现活跃，圣晖集成、龙迅股份涨停。机器人概念股 局部走强，首开股份5天3板。下跌方面，近期热门题材调整，电池、煤炭、钢铁等板块跌幅居前，福建板块重挫，福建金森、福建水泥等多股跌停。 今天，全球市场动荡，多个风险资产与避险资产同步下挫。 当地时间11月17日，欧美股市集体收跌。11月18日，亚太主要股指收盘全线下跌，日经225指数收盘下跌3.22%，创自四月以来最大单日跌幅，韩国综合 指数收盘下跌3.32%，澳洲标普200指数收盘跌1.28%，新西兰标普50指数收盘跌1.16%。 港股方面，截至15:40，恒生指数跌1.78%，恒生科技指数跌1.94%，小鹏汽车跌超10%，联想集团跌超4%，比亚迪股份、蔚来跌超3%。 黄金一度失守4000美元关口，现货黄金最新报4005美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货最新报4003美元/盎 ...

中原证券认为，周一，上证指数全天震荡走低；深证成指、创业板指全天窄幅震荡。盘中能源金属、软 件开发、互联网服务以及船舶制造等行业表现较好；医药、贵金属、保险以及光伏设备等行业表现较 弱。当前A股市场处于震荡蓄势、布局来年的重要阶段，上证指数围绕4000点附近蓄势整固的可能性较 大，市场风格再平衡仍将延续。10月金融数据显示居民资产配置向金融资产转移的长期趋势未变，为市 场提供增量资金。预计短期市场以稳步震荡上行为主，密切关注宏观经济数据、海外流动性变化以及政 策动向。 东莞证券认为，周一，A股市场低位震荡整理。当前上证指数在4000点附近震荡整理，资金分歧有所加 大，获利盘了结可能引发短期波动。不过当前经济处于动能转换关键期，预计四季度在政策支撑下基本 面将逐步改善。积极政策信号有望重塑资本市场主线和估值逻辑，提振风险偏好。A股市场短期或进入 震荡整理，中期震荡上行趋势仍有望延续。 财信证券认为，周一，A股市场弱势震荡。盘面上，锂电产业链走强，AI应用板块活跃，福建本地股表 现靠前，而贵金属、医药等板块表现靠后。短期内，随着上证指数在4000点附近震荡多时，卖盘或逐步 消化出清，该位置筹码结构相对稳固，因此指 ...

市场应该是从六月份开始走出了所谓的"慢牛"行情，一路走到现在，4000点都到了。回头再去看六月份 行情启动时，不少机构投资者及个人投资者都不相信慢牛行情已经开启，但我们当时的态度还是比较坚 定，这在我们过往的言论中也能看到。后来我们做了一份材料，向大家说明慢牛有可能能够实现的原 因，并从基本面、资金面、政策面及情绪面等多个角度进行了一些分析。 当时基本面呈现出一个有意思的现象，有很多机构投资者不相信六月份以来的行情是慢牛，这与基本面 相关。我们上半年GDP增速已经实现了5.3%，那么如果全年GDP的KPI是5%，那么下半年只需完成 4.7%至4.8%的增速其实就可以完成任务了。所以大家的预期是下半年盈利增速会往下走的，进而认 为"基本面下行的情况下，为什么会有慢牛诞生？"，这也是当时比较多的机构投资者觉得慢牛这件事情 要打个问号的重要原因。 但我们反复强调，股市它不是只由基本面决定的，还有资金面、情绪面、政策面这些情况。 我们先来看资金面，资金面虽然没有出现大水漫灌的情况，但整体资金并不紧张。此外，美联储自特朗 普上台后便一直被要求降息，并且今年九月份已经兑现一次降息；不过十二月份的降息暂时还看不到， 因为鲍 ...

Macro Strategy - Fixed asset investment in China showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -1.70% for the first ten months of 2025, worsening from -0.50% in September. Key components such as infrastructure investment and manufacturing also experienced declines, with infrastructure down by 1.83 percentage points and manufacturing down by 1.30 percentage points. Real estate development investment saw a significant drop of -14.70% compared to -13.90% in September [2][4][5] Stock Market Overview - A-share indices experienced narrow fluctuations and slight declines from November 10 to November 14, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% and the ChiNext Index down by 3.01%. The market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with expectations of continued wide fluctuations and gradual upward movement in November [3][4][7] Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, most showed gains, with the top performers being comprehensive and textile sectors, which rose by 6.99% and 4.41% respectively. In contrast, the communication and electronics sectors faced declines of -4.77% each. Year-to-date, energy metals and components have seen significant increases of 92.91% and 85.55% respectively [5][6] Banking Sector Insights - The central bank's report emphasized maintaining reasonable growth in financial totals and solidifying credit support. The report indicated that recent weak credit growth is influenced by various factors, including local government debt replacement and the structural evolution of the economy. The central bank aims to keep financial totals, including credit and bond financing, growing steadily [14][15] - The central bank plans to enhance support for technology finance, which is a key focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan. This includes optimizing monetary policy tools to support technological innovation and ensuring that banks maintain reasonable net interest margins to facilitate continued support for the real economy [15][17] Investment Recommendations - The banking sector is expected to attract investment due to high dividend yields, with recommendations to focus on state-owned banks and potential valuation recovery opportunities in joint-stock and regional banks. Specific banks highlighted include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, and others [17]

今年前三季度，险资投资的一大重点就是加仓股票。 第一财经记者根据金融监管总局最新发布的2025年三季度保险公司资金运用情况表（下称"资金运用情 况表"）梳理，三季度末，保险资金运用余额达到37.46万亿元，其中股票的账面余额为3.62万亿元。这 一数字较去年末增加了1.19万亿元，增幅近五成；其中第三季度增加5524亿元。 如果加上证券投资基金，则截至三季度末险资配置的核心权益资产近5.6万亿元，较去年末增加近1.5万 亿元，其中第三季度单季增加值为8640亿元。 从Choice显示的险资三季度重仓股来看，银行股依然是险资的"心头好"，不仅三季度末持仓市值占比超 一半，且第三季度险资增持股数也在所有重仓股中排名首位。在银行股外，据业内分析师统计，钢铁、 通信、食品饮料等行业在三季度获险资重点增持，而电力设备、有色金属、交通运输等则环比减持。 从去年末到今年三季度末，险资配置的股票余额一路上涨。资金运用情况表数据显示，今年三季度末险 资（指产险、寿险公司，下同）持有股票的账面余额为3.62万亿元，较去年末的2.43万亿元大幅增加了 1.19万亿元，涨幅高达49.14%，在资金运用余额中的占比也从去年末的7.30 ...

Market Outlook - The recent surge in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points and a cumulative increase of over 18% in three months, is seen as a new starting point for a slow bull market, but caution is advised [3] - The core support for this market rally is attributed to the influx of long-term capital, including increased holdings by central financial institutions, insurance funds, bank wealth management reallocating to equity assets, and foreign capital returning to the market [3] Sector Rotation - The rapid switching of A-share hotspots this year, from financial sectors to technology and new concepts, is interpreted as a reflection of policy-driven market adjustments rather than random fluctuations [4] - The government aims to promote a healthy and stable rise in indices, avoiding excessive concentration of funds that could lead to bubbles and subsequent sharp corrections, thus maintaining market resilience through structural opportunities [4] Characteristics of Slow Bull Market - The current "slow bull" market in A-shares shares commonalities with historical trends but also exhibits significant differences, particularly in four dimensions: institutional transformation of investor structure, precision expansion of policy tools, generational leap in industrial technology, and the formation of a domestic circulation-led global context [5] - These factors are reshaping stock valuation systems, market risk mitigation mechanisms, and the pathways for external shocks, necessitating a contemporary understanding of market dynamics rather than relying solely on historical comparisons [5] Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on major themes such as the US-China competition, with tracking and positioning in sectors like computing power, rare earth permanent magnets, nuclear fusion, shipping, and military drones [7] - The strategy framework combines subjective analysis with quantitative support, emphasizing respect for market rules and integrating thorough research and micro insights to capture trading opportunities in strong sectors during market rotations [7]

东吴证券认为，周四，A股市场小幅低开后便展开反弹，锂电池、电气设备、有色、化工等板块全面爆 发。上证指数再创阶段新高，由于蓝筹股的稳定作用，近期上证指数并未受到调整影响，周四的上涨又 平滑切换到其它板块上，令指数的上升趋势保持良好。A股市场仍处于慢牛的节奏，只是近期市场震荡 调整时操作难度较大，赚钱不易，但新周期的上涨一旦展开，市场情绪会很快恢复，重点留意新热点的 形成。 财信证券认为，周四，A股市场情绪回暖。盘面上，锂电产业链全线走强，并带动新能源方向表现较 好，阿里云概念尾盘拉升，大消费、存储芯片等板块维持活跃。当日市场全面转暖主要有以下两方面原 因：一方面是大盘短期连续震荡整理后，卖盘消化基本到位；另一方面是锂电产业链在此节点加速走 强，并且带动新能源方向，使得盘面重新活跃，资金风险偏好有所提升。不过尽管当日三大指数均取得 较好涨幅，但整体上并未突破震荡区间，因此在短期指数层面实现有效放量突破之前，大盘或维持指数 震荡、题材板块轮动的结构性行情。中期来看，在全球科技投资热情不减、"反内卷"政策持续推进、居 民储蓄入市等因素支撑下，本轮慢牛行情的根基并未动摇，后续A股指数仍存在继续走强的基础。 中原证券认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached the 4000-point mark for the first time in 10 years, indicating significant changes in the A-share market as it approaches the end of 2025 and the commencement of the next five-year plan in China [1] Group 1: Major Changes in the Market - Change One: Slow Bull Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2748 points on September 24, 2022, to surpass 4000 points on October 28, 2023, taking 400 days with an annualized volatility of 15.28%. In comparison, previous surges in 2007 and 2015 took only 89 and 127 days, respectively, with higher volatilities of 27.94% and 23.01% [1] - Change Two: Shift in A-share Pricing Power - By Q3 2024, the scale of passive equity funds, particularly stock ETFs, has surpassed that of actively managed equity funds for the first time, with the current ETF market reaching 5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant shift in pricing power within the A-share market [4] - Change Three: Leading Themes in the Current Market - The current bull market is primarily driven by sectors such as communication, electronics, and power equipment, reflecting a broader trend towards technological self-sufficiency and the global AI wave, alongside the narrative of revaluation of Chinese assets [5] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investment Trends - Significant Capital Inflows - Since September 24, 2022, the ETF market has seen a net inflow of 1.17 trillion yuan, with major inflows directed towards core A-share assets, technology innovation, and cyclical sectors [11][12] - Performance of Key ETFs - The Double Innovation Leader ETF tracking the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index has risen by 57.63% this year, while the Tianhong Growth ETF tracking the ChiNext Index has increased by 45.78% [8] - Year-End Capital Rotation - Following six months of continuous growth, A-shares have seen a rotation of capital, with significant inflows into ETFs tracking sectors like technology, securities, and consumer goods, particularly in the context of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [14][18]