| 伴得吗 | 名称 | 现价 | 张跌 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 上证指数 | | 4102.20 +34.46 +0.85% | | | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 14156.27 +29.16 +0.21% | | | | 399006 创业板指 | | 3311.51 -13.38 | | -0.40% | | 000688 科创50 | | 1453.48 -17.59 | | -1.20% | 盘面上，居民取暖拉动能源需求攀升，煤炭、煤化工板块大爆发，大有能源、山西焦煤及中煤能源等十 余股涨停；马斯克团队秘访中国光伏企业，光伏设备板块走高；航空机场板块拉升；玻璃玻纤、HIT电 池、房地产开发及装修建材等板块涨幅居前。另外，腾讯云板块下挫；贵金属板块走低；AI应用端普 跌，Sora概念、多模态AI领跌，引力传媒跌停；文化传媒、游戏及算力概念等跌幅居前。 具体来看： 煤炭股掀涨停潮，恒源煤电、开滦股份、山西焦煤、大有能源、兖矿能源、美锦能源等近15股涨停。 | 代码 名称 | 涨幅量 | 涨跌 | 现价 | | --- | ...

Group 1 - The chief economist of Zheshang Securities, Li Chao, emphasizes the necessity of maintaining an active fiscal policy with a certain level of deficit for 2026 [1] - Li Chao indicates that a moderately loose monetary policy will likely continue, with potential interest rate cuts still on the table [1] - The focus for 2026 should shift towards the importance of consumption as a key counter-cyclical variable, contrasting with the past where real estate was the main counter-cyclical factor [1] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market in 2026 should not overly focus on interest rates but rather on risk appetite, suggesting that a sustained optimistic market sentiment could lead to a prolonged "slow bull" market through valuation increases [1]

上交所最新披露2026年1月A股新开户数据，数据显示，2026年首月投资者新开A股账户达492万户。 如何看待492万的新开户数？ 一是492万户同比去年1月157万户增长213%，环比去年12月260万户增长89%，增长幅度明显； 二是结合全年新开户数据来看，492万户高于2025年所有月份，在2024年的12个月份中，也仅低于10月的685万户； 三是回顾A股开户历史，492万户的月度开户数能够跻身近十年次高、历史第五高位，前四名分别是2015年4月的720万、2015年6月的712 万、2024年10月的685万以及2015年5月的674万。 | | | 2026年A股新开户数据/万户 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 月份 | 个人 | 机构 | 合计 | | ﮯ | 1月 | 490.5257 | 1.0554 | 491.5811 | | 合计 | 2026年合计 | 490.5257 | 1.0554 | 491.5811 | | | | 2025年A股新开户数据/万户 | | | | 序号 | 月份 | 个人 | 机构 | 合计 | | ...

2月3日，上交所最新披露2026年1月A股新开户数据，数据显示，2026年首月投资者新开A股账户达492万户。 如何看待492万的新开户数？ 值得对比的是，与2015年牛市期间的高开户数相比，当前市场具有明显不同：一是估值水平更低，当前上证指数市盈率约17倍，远低于 2015年高点的30倍以上；二是资金结构更健康，当前中长期资金占比更高，而2015年以杠杆资金、散户资金为主；三是政策导向更稳健， 当前监管层强调稳字当头，避免市场大起大落，这些差异有望支撑市场走出慢牛行情。 总体来看，2026年首月A股市场交出了一份亮眼的成绩单，492万户的新开账户数为市场注入了新活力。尽管短期市场面临一定的调整压 力，但在政策、资金、经济基本面等多重利好因素的支撑下，A股中长期上行趋势明确。随着春节后各项利好因素的逐步落地，市场有望迎 来新一轮的上涨行情，为投资者带来更多投资机会。 A股新开户数因何创新高？ 2026年1月A股市场实现开门红，三大核心指数全线收涨且量能创历史新高，叠加政策与资金双重利好，市场赚钱效应吸引。月末受节前资 金避险、获利盘出逃等因素影响，主要指数迎来回调，市场情绪有所降温，但新增资金入场的整体趋势未 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of listed securities firms in 2025 is expected to improve significantly due to the recovery of the A-share market, with many firms reporting substantial increases in revenue and net profit [1][2][6]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - As of the end of January, 22 listed securities firms reported positive earnings forecasts, with 8 firms expecting a net profit increase of over 70% [1]. - Among the top performers, CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 748.3 billion yuan and a net profit of 300.51 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [1][2]. - Other firms with over 100 billion yuan in net profit include Guotai Junan and China Merchants Securities, with expected profits of 275.33 billion to 280.06 billion yuan and 123 billion yuan, respectively [1][2]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - The increase in profits is attributed to the recovery of the A-share market, which has led to higher trading volumes and improved performance in brokerage and proprietary trading businesses [6][8]. - Mergers and acquisitions have also played a significant role in boosting profits, with Guotai Junan and Guolian Minsheng both reporting over 100% growth in net profit due to successful integration efforts [3][4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite recent market fluctuations, analysts remain optimistic about the future performance of securities stocks, suggesting that the sector will benefit from increased market activity and potential policy support [7][9]. - The overall profit growth for the securities sector in 2025 is projected to reach approximately 46%, driven by ongoing reforms in the investment sector [6].

截至2025年末，银华大数据灵活配置定期开放混合基金持有股票占比为81.77%，未持有债券，前十大持仓个股分别为中信证券、东兴证券、兴业证券、国 泰海通、三环集团、东方证券、东吴证券、方正证券、金山办公、分众传媒。 与2025年三季度持仓相比，银华大数据灵活配置定期开放混合基金将前十大持仓个股全部更换。截至2025年三季度末，该基金前十大持仓个股分别为中国平 安、宁德时代、海尔智家、贵州茅台、杭州银行、恒瑞医药、晶方科技、中天科技、金山办公、东方电缆。 公告显示，截至2025年末，李晓彬管理的银华惠增利货币基金和银华货币基金的资产净值规模合计超千亿元。 孙蓓琳离任的银华大数据灵活配置定期开放混合基金此前不久刚增聘了一位基金经理。2025年11月，该基金增聘和玮为新任基金经理，与张凯和孙蓓琳共同 管理该基金。 银华大数据灵活配置定期开放混合基金成立于2016年4月，成立至今已有近10年时间，截至2026年1月28日，该基金成立以来的单位净值下跌2.70%，近3年 单位净值下跌10.57%，近1年单位净值增长13.93%，近3个月单位净值下跌0.92%。 1月29日，银华基金发布多条基金经理变更公告。公告显示，基 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing internationalization of Chinese private equity funds, with Hong Kong emerging as the preferred destination for overseas investments, facilitated by the 9th license from the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission [1] - As of December 31, 2025, 133 private equity firms hold the 9th license, with 39 of them managing over 10 billion yuan, and Shanghai being a significant hub for these firms [1] - The private equity firm Rido Investment executed an unusual dividend distribution, resetting the net asset value of one of its products to 1.0000, which is uncommon in the industry for newly established products [2] Group 2 - Dongfang Harbor, managed by Dan Bin, reported a significant increase in its holdings in Google, which has become its largest position, reflecting a strategic shift towards technology stocks [3] - Li Bei from Banxia Investment believes that the real estate sector is approaching a turning point, suggesting that opportunities lie in real estate stocks rather than direct property purchases [4] - The white liquor sector, particularly Kweichow Moutai, has seen a strong rebound, with its stock price rising significantly, drawing attention from investors [5][6] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon emphasized the firm's commitment to the Chinese market, noting increased opportunities in investment banking and wealth management as international interest in China grows [7] - The Norwegian Government Pension Fund reported a 15.1% return for 2025, with equity investments being the main driver, particularly in technology, finance, and basic materials sectors [8] - Cathie Wood of ARK Invest predicts a new entrepreneurial era driven by AI, likening current investment trends to a major infrastructure cycle [9] Group 4 - Jinghua Asset's strategy meeting highlighted four key investment opportunities for 2026, including new economy sectors, high-end manufacturing, consumer essentials, and anti-involution themes [10][11] - Three securities firms, Northeast Securities, Kaiyuan Securities, and Shanghai Securities, received full exemption from transaction fees based on their performance evaluations [12] - Zhongtai Securities announced a significant organizational restructuring, establishing separate subsidiaries for underwriting, proprietary trading, and research [13]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a defensive investment strategy as the upcoming holiday approaches, suggesting a focus on structural trades that outperform the market [2] - The food and beverage sector is highlighted for its potential price increases, with a focus on upstream suppliers that can pass on costs effectively [3][6] - The oil service industry is expected to see improved conditions due to rising oil prices, with a recommendation to focus on high-competitiveness companies [4][6] Market Strategy - The market index showed an initial rise followed by consolidation, aligning with the expectation of a "sideways oscillation with slight strengthening" [6] - The report notes that the domestic risk assessment has improved, which is a long-term confidence-building factor, but lacks the strong momentum seen in a liquidity-driven bull market [6] - The H-share market is suggested for valuation recovery, with mid-cap blue chips performing well, particularly in the gold and non-ferrous metals sectors [6] Sector Strategy - The food and beverage sector is experiencing upward price expectations, with challenges in consumer demand due to debt cycles [3][6] - Companies with pricing power or those in the upstream supply chain are expected to show better profit elasticity [6] - Specific stock recommendations include COFCO Sugar (600737), Meihua Biological (600873), and Aipu Co., Ltd. (603020) [6] Oil Service Sector - The report indicates that geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions in the U.S. are affecting oil supply, leading to a rise in Brent crude prices [6] - It is anticipated that the oil service industry's capital expenditure will increase marginally, benefiting competitive firms [6] - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jereh (002353) and Dwell (688377) [6]

连建明 2026年头一个月，A股走势让许多股民感到犹如"坐过山车"，好在主要指数月K线都收阳，为全年开了 好头。不过，周五的大幅震荡也在提示市场风险悄悄降临，展望未来，慢牛行情有望持续，但风险也需 提高警惕。 再细看个股方面，上涨股票数量远多于下跌股票。1月份上涨股票3800只，下跌股票1300多只。聚焦热 点板块，既有去年的"老明星"，又有今年出现的"新贵"，通过1月份净申购的ETF就能看出，净申购前 几名分别是有色金属ETF、化工ETF、电网设备ETF、黄金ETF等，这些板块几乎是本月涨幅最大的板 块，涨幅最大的是有色和黄金板块，黄金板块涨幅高达40%，这当然与本月黄金价格暴涨有关，但风险 也在显现，1月最后一个交易日由于黄金出现震荡，A股中的黄金类企业股票大幅下跌，很多股票跌 停。至于去年最热门的科技股尤其是半导体、人工智能板块热度还在延续，人工智能从去年炒硬件转为 AI应用，导致软件和传媒板块大涨，中证传媒指数1月份涨幅为22%。卫星和电网设备去年12月份就开 始成为热点，今年1月份炒作延续，但下半月出现明显回调。化工板块则是1月份异军突起的板块，表现 突出。 1月份还有一个显著特点，就是大盘股、小盘 ...

Market Overview - In January 2026, global markets exhibited significant divergence, with structural trends dominating the month [1] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced upward movements, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 3% and the Hang Seng Index increasing by more than 6% [1] - The U.S. stock market reached historical highs but faced consolidation by the end of the month, with all three major indices still showing monthly gains exceeding 1% [1] A-shares Performance - The A-share market showed a steady upward trend in January, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.76%, the ChiNext Index up 4.47%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index up 5.03% [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the gains with a 22.59% increase, followed by media, oil and petrochemicals, construction materials, and basic chemicals, which saw increases of 17.94%, 16.31%, 13.31%, and 12.72% respectively [3] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong market also trended upwards in January, with the Hang Seng Index leading with a 6.85% increase, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 4.53% and 3.67% respectively [5] - The optical communication sector was the standout performer, surging by 32.34%, followed closely by the paper industry with a 31.76% increase [6] Precious Metals - January witnessed a remarkable rally in precious metals, with gold and silver prices rising sharply due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing central bank purchases [8] - Gold prices increased by over 16%, while silver prices surged more than 34% during the month, marking them as the most notable assets in this rally [8] Industrial Metals and Energy - The industrial metals market also performed strongly, with LME nickel rising over 9% and LME copper increasing by 8.97% [10] - The energy market saw WTI crude oil futures rising over 14%, reaching $65.88 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures also increasing by over 14%, priced at $70.04 per barrel [10] Future Market Outlook - The focus for February is expected to remain on interest rate expectations, dollar movements, and geopolitical risks [12] - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may experience a healthy adjustment, with a shift towards a more sustainable "slow bull" market, driven by earnings growth and profitability improvements [12] - For the Hong Kong market, a positive outlook is maintained, with expectations of a structural rebound supported by earnings recovery, improved liquidity, and policy support [13]