Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market environment and the government's reluctance to implement significant stimulus policies, emphasizing a preference for a slow bull market rather than a rapid surge in stock prices [4][10][12]. Group 1 - The recent market expectations were dampened by the announcement that no short-term policy adjustments would be made, contrasting with previous anticipations of major stimulus similar to the "924" policy [4][6][9]. - The current market environment is significantly different from last year, with the index having risen nearly 500 points in two months, indicating a recovery in market sentiment that does not necessitate large policy interventions [7][9][10]. - The government aims to avoid a "crazy bull market" that could lead to a short-lived bull run, preferring instead to maintain a steady upward trend in the market [10][14][15]. Group 2 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) would remain unchanged, indicating a decision not to follow the U.S. in further interest rate cuts [16][17]. - The decision not to lower interest rates is attributed to limited room for reduction, as current deposit rates are around 1% and the 5-year LPR is at 3.5%, which could jeopardize banks' profitability [19][20][21]. - Maintaining the LPR is also seen as a strategy to narrow the interest rate differential with the U.S., which has been attracting global capital due to higher interest rates [22][24][26]. Group 3 - The combination of not lowering the LPR and refraining from stimulus policies signals that the government is not in a hurry to release liquidity in the fourth quarter, despite market expectations for such measures [29][30]. - The current high market enthusiasm, even among retail investors, suggests that there is sufficient capital in the market, reducing the need for additional liquidity [33]. - The article anticipates a structural bull market in the A-share market, with certain sectors likely to attract investment while others may see capital outflows [34][35].

Core Viewpoint - The recent A-share market rally is indicative of a bull market that has already begun, with expectations of the index surpassing 4000 points in the future, despite short-term fluctuations [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching the 3900-point mark, raising questions about the sustainability of this bull market [2][3]. - Historical patterns of short bull and long bear markets have shifted due to structural reforms and improved growth dynamics in the market [3][12]. Factors Driving Market Growth - Key factors contributing to the current market growth include: - Reforms on the asset side and adjustments in the structure of listed companies, leading to long-term growth potential [3][12]. - Improvements in liquidity, supported by the central bank's focus on the capital market and the introduction of structural monetary policy tools [3][4]. - Institutional reforms aimed at transitioning the market from a financing-driven model to a wealth management-oriented investment market [4][12]. Confidence in the Market - The current market rally is characterized as a "confidence economy," where investor confidence plays a crucial role in driving market performance, rather than solely reflecting economic fundamentals [8][9]. - The recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are seen as a positive external influence, potentially attracting foreign investment to the A-share market [9]. Long-term Outlook - The market is expected to enter a "slow bull" phase, supported by strong policy initiatives and a collaborative effort from various sectors [7][12]. - The recent market performance, including an 800-point increase over four months, is attributed to a combination of policy support and market dynamics [7][12]. Institutional and Structural Reforms - The reforms in market rules and regulations are aimed at enhancing investor confidence and creating reasonable expectations for market performance [4][12]. - The central bank's liquidity support mechanisms, such as the "convenience swap" system, are designed to bolster the financial stability of non-bank institutions [7]. Market Interaction and Humor - The forum featured engaging discussions between experts, highlighting the interplay between stock market performance and consumer spending, with humor adding to the dialogue [16].

近期，市场整体呈现震荡走势，板块轮动活跃，后续演绎趋势以及布局思路，是投资者关心所在。 首创证券资产管理事业部权益投资经理刘悦认为，当下应按照长期、多头、慢牛的框架来思考这轮行情。在他 看来，市场调整主要系前期市场过高的追涨情绪，以及行情结构的严重分化所致。 刘悦当前负责主观多头方向的权益投资，截至9月19日，在管的多只资产管理计划近一年的收益表现良好。他 在接受券商中国记者专访时表示，截至目前，本轮行情仍以流动性驱动为主，赚钱效应使得场内水位逐步抬 升，部分高景气行业表现较为突出。而未来行情能否行稳致远，应当是由大多数行业EPS（每股盈利）的提升 来实现的。 他认为，到2026年中前后，A股有望迎来盈利拐点，基于基本面结构性改善的机会可能不断增加。而市场在调 整中孕育更大的动力，赚钱效应有望进一步提升。 近期市场调整的更多是斜率而不是方向 券商中国记者：近期市场出现一定程度的调整，对此您怎么看？ 刘悦： 最近，市场调整幅度加大、前期核心个股高位震荡、热点轮动加快。之所以出现这种现象，核心在于 两点： 一是场内外资金追涨热情过于高涨。从当下资本市场承载的使命看，要实现国家的进一步转型以及承载财富蓄 水池，当前 ...

Core Viewpoint - One year after the implementation of a comprehensive financial policy package by Chinese regulatory authorities, Chinese assets have experienced a significant bull market, with the A-share market outperforming major global markets [1][3]. Market Performance - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, marking a 45% increase from approximately 70 trillion yuan [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index surged from around 2700 points to 3900 points, while the STAR 50 Index and the ChiNext Index recorded remarkable gains of 115% and 110%, respectively [1]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices returned only 16% and 24% during the same period [1]. Stock Performance - Over 3000 A-share stocks have risen by more than 50%, with nearly 1500 stocks doubling in price [4]. - Technology stocks have led the market rally, with telecommunications, electronics, and computer sectors showing the highest gains [6]. Recent Developments - Alibaba's Hong Kong stock rose nearly 10% in a single day, with a monthly increase of 50%, reaching a four-year high [7]. - The release of a regulatory draft for food delivery platforms has been interpreted positively by the market, benefiting companies like Meituan and JD.com [7]. - The semiconductor sector also saw a 4.6% increase, driven by positive earnings outlooks from Micron Technology and Huawei's optimistic three-year vision [7]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests that the current market conditions for A-shares are more favorable for a "slow bull" market than ever before, with high trading activity since early August [8]. - There remains significant potential for market inflows, as retail investors currently allocate only 11% of their assets to stocks, compared to 55% in real estate and 27% in cash [8]. - Approximately 80 trillion yuan in household savings has increased since 2020, with a substantial portion facing reallocation needs [9]. - Institutional investment in A-shares is also expected to rise, with potential inflows estimated at 20-40 trillion yuan [10].

"9.24"行情一周年，中国资产怎么样了？ 去年9月24日，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会联合出台一揽子金融政策，旨在稳定市场和提振经济，引发资本市场强烈反响。 当时，亿万富翁对冲基金创始人David Tepper曾高呼"买入一切中国资产"。 一年后的今天，他的判断被证明是对的，中国资产在此期间经历了一轮全球瞩目的 强劲牛市。 过去一年，中国股市的表现远超全球主要市场。 A股总市值首次突破100万亿元， 增幅达45%。上证综指从2700点水平飙升至3900点，而以科技股为主的科 创50指数和创业板指数更是分别录得了115%和110%的惊人涨幅，同期标普500指数和纳斯达克指数的回报率则分别为16%和24%。 展望未来，此轮涨势或许才刚刚开始。 "9.24"一周年成绩单：百万亿市值与普涨格局 回顾"924"以来的一年，中国A股市场的表现堪称惊人。截至2025年9月24日，A股总市值从约70万亿元人民币增长至超过100万亿元，增幅高达45%。 在此期间，超过3000只A股股票涨幅逾50%，近1500只股票价格翻倍。 从板块来看，科技股无疑是本轮上涨的领头羊。 电信、电子和计算机等行业的股票录得了最高的板块涨幅 ...

中国政法大学商学院原院长刘纪鹏 尤其值得关注的是，央行首次通过"便利互换"机制，直接向证券、基金、保险等非银机构提供流动性支持，允许其以ETF或成分股作为抵押置换国债，再经 由商业银行置换为现金，初步规模达5000亿元。 刘纪鹏进一步表示，尽管市场在今年4月经历回调，跌至3040点，但他认为，这是对前期快速上涨的技术性修正。从更长周期看，A股在3000点附近徘徊近 17年后，当前已进入稳步上升通道。近4个月800点的涨幅，是政策与市场多方合力的结果，也印证了"慢牛"格局的韧性。"所以这一次应该是牛市，而且是 慢牛行情，是在全国上下齐心协力的背景下实现的。" 凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行，本届论坛以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学界精 英，共同洞察变局脉络、探寻发展新机。 刘纪鹏总结称，本轮行情已不再是汇金公司"单兵作战"，而是银行体系与资本市场深度联动、共同发力的成果。在全国上下凝聚共识、政策工具持续发力的 背景下，中国资本市场有望走出长期健康的"慢牛"态势。 对于当下的行情，中国政法大学商学院原院长刘纪鹏认为，目前是慢牛，牛市行情。 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese asset market has experienced a significant bull market over the past year, following the financial policies introduced on September 24, 2022, aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting the economy [1][2] - The A-share market's total market capitalization surpassed 100 trillion yuan, marking a 45% increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 2700 to 3900 points [1][2] - The technology sector has led the market rally, with substantial gains in telecommunications, electronics, and computing industries, reflecting a broad-based recovery in market confidence [4] Market Performance - Over 3000 A-share stocks have increased by more than 50%, and nearly 1500 stocks have doubled in price since the policy implementation [2] - The STAR 50 Index and the ChiNext Index recorded remarkable gains of 115% and 110%, respectively, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices returned only 16% and 24% [1] Sector Analysis - Alibaba's stock surged nearly 10% in a single day, with a month-to-date increase of 50%, reaching a four-year high, driven by positive market sentiment [4] - Regulatory changes in the food delivery sector have positively impacted stocks like Meituan and JD.com, which rose by 1.2% and 3.3%, respectively [4] - The semiconductor sector also saw a 4.6% increase, supported by positive earnings outlooks from Micron Technology and Huawei's optimistic three-year vision [4] Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests that the current market conditions for a "slow bull" market are more mature than ever, with high trading activity and a record duration of market engagement since early August [5] - There remains significant potential for market inflows, as retail investors have a low stock allocation of 11% compared to 55% in real estate and 27% in cash [5] - Approximately 31 trillion yuan in wealth management products and 15 trillion yuan in money market funds could flow into the stock market as real interest rates decline [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The financial policies introduced by Chinese regulatory authorities on September 24 last year have led to a significant recovery in the Chinese stock market, resulting in a strong bull market that has outperformed major global markets [1][2]. Market Performance - The total market capitalization of A-shares has increased from approximately 70 trillion yuan to over 100 trillion yuan, marking a 45% growth [2]. - The Shanghai Composite Index surged from around 2700 points to 3900 points, while the STAR Market and ChiNext indices recorded remarkable gains of 115% and 110% respectively [1][2]. Stock Performance - Over 3000 A-share stocks have risen by more than 50%, with nearly 1500 stocks doubling in price during this period [3]. - Technology stocks have led the market rally, with telecommunications, electronics, and computer sectors showing the highest gains [5]. Sector Highlights - Alibaba's stock rose nearly 10% in a single day, with a month-to-date increase of 50%, reaching a four-year high [5]. - Regulatory measures in the internet sector have positively impacted stocks like Meituan and JD.com, which saw increases of 1.2% and 3.3% respectively [5]. - The semiconductor sector also performed well, with a 4.6% rise in the index due to positive earnings outlooks from Micron Technology and Huawei's optimistic three-year vision [5]. Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs suggests that the current market conditions for A-shares are more favorable for a "slow bull" market than ever before, with high trading activity and a long duration of market engagement [6]. - There is significant potential for market inflows, as retail investors have not yet overly invested in stocks, with only 11% of household assets allocated to equities compared to 55% in real estate [6]. - Approximately 80 trillion yuan in household savings has accumulated since 2020, with a large portion facing reallocation needs [6]. - Institutional investors have low exposure to A-shares, with potential inflows estimated between 20 to 40 trillion yuan [7].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is currently experiencing a "slow bull" phase, with concerns about whether the market has overheated due to rapid index increases [1][3] - The core driver of the recent market rally is the improved risk-return ratio of equity assets, as bond yields have fallen below 2%, prompting investors to seek higher returns in risk assets [3][4] - There is a recognition of localized bubbles, particularly in the technology sector represented by computing power, where some stocks have seen significant short-term price increases [3][4] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The importance of multi-asset allocation is emphasized in the context of increasing market volatility and frequent style rotations [7][8] - Different investment strategies are discussed, including absolute return focus, risk parity methods, and the use of alternative assets to manage portfolio volatility [7][8][9] - A recommendation for a mixed strategy involving approximately 30% risk assets, with a focus on low-volatility stocks and quantitative selection, is presented as a long-term investment approach [10][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current self - adjustment of convertible bonds is not over, with weakened ability to follow the rise, and the valuation actively declines when the underlying stock pulls back. In the current market, the cost - performance of convertible bonds is low, but considering the slow - bull market of A - shares, there is no need to be overly worried. Now is a concentrated point for convertible bond realization, and high - price, low - premium equity - like varieties and defensive individual bonds are more worthy of consideration, such as some bottom - position varieties represented by banks [6][9]. - Backtesting on recent years' forced redemption cases shows that there are objective returns and a certain degree of certainty in gambling on forced redemption clauses. The number of subsequent forced redemptions and waived forced redemptions is still considerable and worthy of attention [6][9]. - The equity market showed a trend of rising first and then falling last week, with sector differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index almost broke through the 3900 mark at the beginning of the week and then adjusted significantly. The short - term index needs to oscillate and adjust, but the view of a positive long - term index trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the press conference of the State Council Information Office next Monday [6][9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Convertible Bond Views: Valuation Continues to Compress, Waiting for the Entry Opportunity - The self - adjustment of convertible bonds is ongoing, with weakened follow - up ability and active valuation decline. The current cost - performance of convertible bonds is low, but there's no need for excessive worry. High - price, low - premium equity - like varieties and defensive individual bonds are recommended. The equity market had a volatile week, and the long - term trend of the index is still positive [6][9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Follow the Decline Again, Valuation Continues to Fall 2.1 Market Overall Performance: Equity Rises First and Then Falls, Technology Remains the Main Line - From September 15th to September 19th, market index performance was differentiated. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 fell 0.44%, the CSI 1000 rose 0.21%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.34%, the STAR 50 rose 1.84%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell 1.43%. In terms of industries, coal, power equipment, and electronics led the rise, while banks, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance led the decline. The average daily trading volume increased by 1922.4 billion yuan to 2.52 trillion yuan. The top ten rising convertible bonds last week were Jingxing, Hengshuai, Songsheng, etc., and Jingxing, Jing 23, Liyang, etc. were more active in trading [13]. 2.2 Valuation Actively Compresses, High - Price, Medium - and Low - Rated Convertible Bonds Perform Well - Last week, convertible bonds pulled back again, with active valuation compression. The average daily trading volume increased significantly to 818.02 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.55%, the parity center decreased by 1.1% to 111.1 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased by 1.1% to 18.9%. In terms of style, high - price, medium - and low - rated convertible bonds performed well last week, while AA + rated and large - cap convertible bonds performed weakly [6][18]