12月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，居民消费价格指数 (CPI)环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国际大宗商品 价格传导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数 (PPI)环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 智通财经APP获悉，1月9日，国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年12月份CPI和PPI数据。12 月份，扩内需促消费政策措施继续显效，叠加元旦临近，居民消费需求增加，居民消费价格指数(CPI) 环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。受国际大宗商品价格传 导拉动以及国内重点行业产能治理相关政策持续显效等因素影响，工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)环比 上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 原文如下： 2025年12月份CPI同比涨幅继续扩大 PPI同比降幅收窄 ——国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年12月份CPI和PPI数据 二、PPI环比涨幅扩大，同比降幅收窄 PPI环比上涨0.2%，连续3个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大0 ...

日子过得好不好，物价最有发言权。 临近年底，不少家庭开始盘算：2026年物价会涨还是跌？菜价、油价会不会反弹？手里的钱该怎么管，才能不被通胀"啃"掉？其实答案藏在最新的经济数据 里，3个关键信号已清晰显现，看懂了就能从容应对。 先给大家吃颗定心丸：专家普遍判断，2026年物价不会大幅暴涨，整体会呈现"低位温和回升"态势。民生银行首席经济学家温彬预测，明年CPI同比大概上 涨0.8%左右；也有专家更乐观，认为不排除升至2.0%的可能，但都属于合理区间。 信号一：CPI同比涨幅扩大，核心消费在回暖 今年推进的"反内卷"政策，对物价稳定发挥了关键作用。重点行业产能治理加快，市场竞争秩序更规范，像新能源车、光伏设备等行业的低价无序竞争得到 遏制，价格降幅明显收窄。 随着政策持续深入，明年相关行业价格会更趋合理。同时，扩内需、促消费政策会接续发力，消费潜力释放会进一步夯实物价回升的基础，不会出现通缩或 通胀失控的情况。 知道了走势，普通家庭该怎么应对？记住这3点就够了。 第一，日常采购：理性囤货，避开季节性波动 鲜菜、鲜果价格容易受天气影响，季节性波动大。可以根据家庭需求，适当储备耐储存的蔬菜、水果，但别盲目囤积。猪肉 ...

Core Insights - The overall consumer price index (CPI) in September showed a slight increase of 0.1% month-on-month, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in 19 months [1][2] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline was less severe than the previous month, indicating improvements in market conditions and the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [3] - Emerging industries are experiencing growth, with new consumption patterns and models driving positive price changes in related sectors [4][5] Consumer Market Dynamics - The CPI's month-on-month increase was influenced by a 0.7% rise in food prices, particularly in fresh vegetables, eggs, and meats, due to seasonal factors and supply chain disruptions [1] - The year-on-year CPI decline of 0.3% was primarily due to base effects from the previous year, with a negative impact of approximately 0.8 percentage points from tail effects [2] Producer Price Index Trends - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.3% reflects a narrowing of price drops in various industries, including coal processing and black metal smelting, as a result of improved market competition and capacity management [3] - Specific sectors, such as coal processing and black metal industries, saw month-on-month price increases of 3.8% and 0.2%, respectively, indicating a stabilization in prices [3] New Consumption Patterns - The growth of new industries and consumption models is contributing to a dual upgrade in industrial consumption, with significant price increases in sectors like aircraft manufacturing (1.4% year-on-year) and electronic materials (1.2% year-on-year) [5][6] - The shift in consumer demand from quantity to quality is evident, with notable price increases in high-quality goods such as arts and crafts (14.7% year-on-year) and nutritional foods (1.8% year-on-year) [7]

Group 1 - The overall consumer market in September remained stable, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.1% month-on-month, shifting from flat in the previous month [1] - Food prices increased by 0.7%, driven by seasonal price rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits, while pork and aquatic product prices decreased due to sufficient supply [1] - Clothing prices rose by 0.8% as autumn collections were introduced [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [4] - Among the eight categories of goods and services that constitute the CPI, six categories saw price increases, while only food, tobacco, alcohol, and transportation and communication prices declined [4] Group 3 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of expansion and the first time in 19 months that the growth rate returned to 1% [5] - The increase in core CPI is primarily attributed to rising prices of durable consumer goods and services, supported by effective policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption [7] Group 4 - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, increased by 1.8%, with the growth rate expanding for the fifth consecutive month [8] - Prices for household appliances and communication tools rose by 5.5% and 1.5%, respectively, indicating an upward trend [8] - Service prices increased by 0.6%, showing stable growth [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the expectation of economic prosperity may continue to influence style performance, with growth and cyclical sectors leading the market, increasing by 0.72% and 0.37% respectively [5][12][28] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a narrowing year-on-year decline in August, with a decrease of 2.9%, which is 0.7 percentage points less than the previous month, indicating improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [17][21][28] - Import and export data for the first eight months of 2025 shows exports at 17.61 trillion yuan, up 6.9%, while imports decreased by 1.2% to 11.96 trillion yuan, reflecting a narrowing decline [21][28] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that stable funding is crucial for market support, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a fluctuation range of 1.52% from September 8 to September 12, 2025, indicating a recovery in market sentiment [27][28] - The industry and thematic allocation suggests focusing on growth sectors such as technology and advanced manufacturing, as well as industries benefiting from domestic demand policies, including machinery, home appliances, and consumer electronics [28][39] - The report highlights the performance of various industry indices, with significant attention on sectors like electric equipment and basic chemicals, which are expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy [28][39]

Core Viewpoint - The August CPI turned negative at -0.4% year-on-year, primarily driven by a decline in food prices, influenced by high base effects from the previous year [2][3] - Core CPI continues to improve, reaching 0.9% year-on-year, supported by rising prices of gold and platinum jewelry, as well as services [4][5] CPI Analysis - The food price index fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with fresh vegetables, fruits, and pork contributing significantly to the decline [3][4] - The drop in vegetable and pork prices may not be sustained due to high base effects from last year, where prices surged due to extreme weather conditions [3][4] - The core CPI's increase is attributed to a 37.1% rise in gold jewelry prices and a 27.3% rise in platinum jewelry prices, contributing 0.31 percentage points to the core CPI [5][6] PPI Analysis - The PPI ended its downward trend, remaining flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, a narrowing of the drop by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [8][9] - The "anti-involution" effect is beginning to show, but its impact on prices is limited, with various industries experiencing reduced price declines [8][9] - Predictions indicate that the PPI may have reached its bottom in July, with future declines expected to narrow, although a positive trend in the next year remains challenging [9][10] Consumer Goods and Services - Prices of durable goods are showing improvement, with household appliances increasing by 4.6% year-on-year and communication tools by 0.8% [6][7] - The automotive sector is experiencing a reduction in price declines due to improved competition management, with fuel vehicle prices decreasing by 2.3% year-on-year [6][7] - Despite the rise in consumer prices for certain goods, the PPI for related industries has not improved, indicating a potential slowdown in demand [6][7]

Group 1 - In August, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Sichuan experienced a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, reversing from a 0.4% increase in the previous month, and a year-on-year decline of 0.9%, with the decline rate widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The month-on-month decline in CPI was influenced by three main factors: the end of the summer travel peak leading to a significant drop in air ticket prices by 11.9%, a reduction in refined oil prices, and seasonal discounts on certain clothing items [1] - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily driven by decreases in the prices of pork, fresh vegetables, and gasoline [1] Group 2 - In August, the price of pork decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 20.1% year-on-year, attributed to the concentrated market release of pigs and the off-peak consumption season [1] - Fresh vegetable prices increased by 3.4% month-on-month but decreased by 17.2% year-on-year, while fresh fruit prices fell by 3.7% month-on-month and by 4.6% year-on-year [1] - The effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are becoming evident, with household appliance prices rising by 3.1% year-on-year and durable entertainment goods increasing by 2.4% year-on-year [2]

Core Insights - The consumer market in August showed overall stability, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat month-on-month and down 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month ended an eight-month decline, stabilizing after a 0.2% drop in the previous month, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [1][3] Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases this month, with a tail effect from last year's price changes contributing approximately -0.9 percentage points to the CPI [1] - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.9% reflects the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption, with service prices also showing a gradual increase since March [1][2] Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - The PPI's year-on-year decline is primarily influenced by falling international commodity prices, particularly crude oil, which has significantly impacted domestic oil and gas extraction and related industries [3] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is attributed to improved supply-demand relationships and the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies, leading to positive price changes in certain industries [3][4] Market Dynamics - The "trade-in" policy for consumer goods is providing significant support for prices within the covered range, with household appliance prices rising by 1.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase from 2.8% to 4.6% [2] - The ongoing optimization of market competition and the emergence of new economic drivers are expected to support a moderate recovery in prices, with a focus on key industries and the potential for a PPI recovery cycle [4]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat month-on-month in August, with a year-on-year decline of 0.4%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) transitioned from a month-on-month decline of 0.2% to flat in August, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, a reduction in the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI was attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year and lower-than-seasonal food price increases in August [2] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the CPI decline, with pork, fresh vegetables, eggs, and fresh fruits having a notable downward impact [2][3] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI's year-on-year increase of 0.9% reflects the effectiveness of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption [3][4] - Service prices have shown a gradual increase since March, with a 0.6% rise in August, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the CPI increase [3] PPI Insights - The PPI's month-on-month stability in August ended an eight-month downward trend, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [5] - The year-on-year PPI decline of 2.9% is the first narrowing since March, driven by enhanced market competition and proactive macroeconomic policies [5] Future Outlook - Experts predict an improvement in supply-demand structures, which is expected to support a reasonable recovery in prices [4][5]

Group 1 - The consumer market in August showed overall stability, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remaining flat month-on-month and decreasing by 0.4% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.9% year-on-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) month-on-month changed from a decline of 0.2% in the previous month to flat, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, which is a narrowing of the decline by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the first contraction since March of this year [1][3] - The improvement in supply-demand relationships in certain industries has contributed to the stabilization of prices, with the transportation equipment prices remaining flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrowing from 2.1% to 1.9% [2][3] Group 2 - The ongoing implementation of policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption is becoming a key driver for a moderate recovery in basic price levels, as evidenced by the increase in household appliance prices by 1.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase from 2.8% to 4.6% [2][4] - The service prices have shown a continuous upward trend since March, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% in August, indicating the potential for service consumption to be further released [2][3] - The overall low price level trend since the beginning of the year is expected to continue, providing ample space for future growth-stabilizing policies [3][4]