Core Viewpoint - Global geopolitical tensions have eased as of May 2025, with the U.S. President agreeing to delay high tariffs on EU imports, leading to a recovery in risk appetite in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong markets continue a trend of upward volatility, with a significant recovery in risk appetite observed [1] - Market volatility has decreased, indicating a more stable investment environment [1] Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes the importance of assessing the earnings outlook of investment targets under cautious macro assumptions to support current valuation levels [1] - Focus on protecting against downside risks while seeking medium to long-term value re-evaluation opportunities [1] - Active monitoring of potential investment opportunities arising from market fluctuations [1] Investment Directions 1. **Domestic Demand-Driven Sectors**: - Focus on industries such as the internet, sportswear, food and beverage, and property services, which are characterized by strong cash flow and high dividends [1] 2. **Technology Innovation and Countermeasures**: - Target sectors include autonomous ERP, industrial software, artificial intelligence, robotics, low-altitude economy, and food and energy security, emphasizing foundational safety [1] 3. **Export Sectors with Competitive Advantages**: - Industries like home appliances, home furnishings, and textiles that combine domestic and international demand, as well as sectors with strong international comparative advantages, are prioritized [1] - The company believes that once tariff disputes are resolved, the competitive advantages of leading firms in these sectors will be validated, potentially enhancing long-term valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic development faces multiple adverse factors, with increasing uncertainty in the external trade environment and internal challenges [1] Economic Indicators - Major macroeconomic indicators have significantly weakened at the beginning of the second quarter, indicating increased downward pressure on the economy [1] Policy Recommendations - The effectiveness of previous supportive consumption policies needs further evaluation, and follow-up measures should be introduced based on actual conditions [1] - To stimulate domestic demand, it is essential to return to the income fundamentals, implementing practical measures to improve the employment environment, enhance social security, increase disposable income for residents, and improve market expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company's coal production and sales volume declined in Q1 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices, leading to a significant drop in performance. It is anticipated that coking coal prices have bottomed out, presenting potential for upward movement in the future, while the power generation business is gradually expanding [1][2][3][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 1.179 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 42.52%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 27 million yuan, down 93.70% year-on-year [2]. - The company adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.58, 0.66, and 0.75 yuan, down from previous estimates of 0.64, 0.71, and 0.80 yuan [2]. - The average selling price of coal in Q1 2025 was 692 yuan per ton, a decrease of 325 yuan per ton year-on-year, while the sales cost remained stable at 561 yuan per ton, resulting in a gross profit of 130 yuan per ton, down 326 yuan per ton year-on-year [3]. Market Conditions - The average price of coking coal in Q1 2025 was 1,675 yuan per ton, down 615 yuan per ton year-on-year. In Q2 2025, it is expected to further decline by 235 yuan per ton to 1,439 yuan per ton due to ongoing market supply and demand issues [4]. - The company anticipates that policies to stimulate domestic demand may be introduced in the second half of 2025, which could boost downstream steel demand and potentially lead to a recovery in coking coal prices [4]. Business Expansion - The company has a relatively small installed capacity for thermal power generation at 66 MW and holds a 50% stake in the Qianyingzi Power Plant, which has an installed capacity of 2×350 MW for phase one and 1×1000 MW for phase two, with the latter connected to the grid on February 25, 2025. Additionally, it has a 21% stake in the Guoneng Suzhou Thermal Power Co., Ltd., which has an installed capacity of 2×350 MW [4].

东吴证券在最新策略月报中也指出，当前关税冲击引发美国经济衰退预期强化，3月美国 贸易政策不确定性指数创下历史新高，驱动全球大类资产进入高波状态。 今天市场全天低开后震荡反弹，沪指录得8连涨。截至收盘，沪指涨0 . 1 3%，深成指跌 0 . 1 6%，创业板指涨0 . 0 9%。全市场超3100只个股上涨。 相较于海外经济体面临的衰退压力，我国在政策工具箱充足、地产/债务风险可控且经济 韧性支撑下，具备独特的抗压优势，中长期维度无需过分悲观。 沪深两市全天成交额9 9 9 5亿元，较上个交易日缩量1124亿元，内第三次跌破万亿大关。 量能萎缩反映资金短期趋于谨慎。 值 得 注 意 的 是 ， 今 天 尾 盘 又 是 狂 买 指 数 ETF ， 只 要 有 人 砸 ， 国 家 队 就 买 ， 照 惯 常 经 验，"国家队"在托底节点，一般是先稳沪深300，再拉中证1 0 0 0。 此外，国务院新闻办公室将于2025年4月21日（下周一）下午3时举行新闻发布会，请商 务部副部长兼国际贸易谈判副代表凌激和工业和信息化部、国家卫生健康委、中国人民银 行有关负责人介绍《加快推进服务业扩大开放综合试点工作方案》有关情况， ...