Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (1020 - 1026): More Disturbances at the Month - End, CDs May Continue to Fluctuate at a Relatively High Level [1] - Report Date: October 26, 2025 - Research Institution: Huachuang Securities Research Institute - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tax payments and new - share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange may increase capital disturbances. As the transition period of the "interest rate adjustment safeguard clause" approaches the end of November and the maturity scale of CDs is relatively large, CD issuance may still be in demand and remain in a high - level oscillation state in the short term. From a pricing perspective, CDs may continue to fluctuate at a relatively high level, with the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs fluctuating around 1.65 - 1.7%, and the price increase pressure above 1.7% being controllable, allowing for opportunistic layout [2][50] Summary by Directory Supply: Net Financing Increases, and the Term Structure Lengthens - This week (October 20 - 26), the CD issuance scale was 96.324 billion yuan, and the net financing was 34.535 billion yuan (compared to 22.27 billion yuan from October 13 - 19). In terms of supply structure, the issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 14% to 19%, and that of joint - stock banks increased from 36% to 43%. In terms of terms, the issuance proportion of 1 - year CDs increased from 19% to 28%, and the weighted issuance term of CDs rose to 7.08 months (previously 6.07 months). Next week (October 27 - November 2), the maturity scale will increase to 56.431 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 5.28 billion yuan [2][5] Demand: Wealth Management and Other Product Categories Are the Main Secondary - Market Allocation Forces, and the Primary - Market Subscription Rate Rises - In the secondary - market allocation, wealth management and other product categories are the main forces, with weekly net purchases of 52.116 billion yuan and 58.277 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of city commercial banks decreased from 102.508 billion yuan to 91.151 billion yuan. In the primary - market issuance, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) rose to around 87%. By institution, the subscription rate of city commercial banks increased from 84% to 85%, that of joint - stock banks increased from 83% to 86%, and that of state - owned banks decreased from 85% to 84% [2][15] Valuation: CDs See a Slight Price Increase in the Primary Market and Slight Yield Fluctuations in the Secondary Market - In the primary - market pricing, the weighted issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs is around 1.68%. Specifically, the 1 - month variety decreased by 1bp compared to last week, the 6 - month and 9 - month varieties remained unchanged, the 1 - year variety increased by 1bp, and the 3 - month variety increased by 2bp. In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks decreased by 1bp, at the 18% historical quantile. In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1 - year city commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 7.76BP to 10.35BP, at around the 14% quantile, and the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 8.27BP to 6.31BP, close to the 9% quantile. In the secondary - market yields, the yields of AAA - rated CDs fluctuated slightly. The 1 - month variety decreased by 1bp compared to last week, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month varieties remained unchanged, and the 1 - year variety increased by 1bp, reaching the 8% historical quantile since 2019. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs rose to the 20% historical quantile [2][21][31] Comparison: The Spread between Medium - and Short - Term Notes and CDs Continues to Narrow - In terms of asset comparison, the spread between medium - and short - term notes and CDs continued to narrow. Specifically, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15DMA of DR007 widened from 18.44BP to 23.33BP; the spread with the 15DMA of R007 widened from 9.99BP to 16.68BP; the 1 - year Treasury yield increased by 2.82bp, and the spread between CDs and Treasuries narrowed from 22.29BP to 20.34BP, with the quantile dropping to around 2%; the spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 4.13BP to 3.30BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%; in addition, the spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes and CDs narrowed from 5.91BP to 3.02BP, with the quantile dropping to 9% [2][38]

Core Viewpoint - Investors are closely monitoring delayed inflation data to assess the outlook for U.S. interest rates, especially in light of the government shutdown impacting key data availability [1] Group 1: Inflation Data Impact - The inflation data, scheduled for release on Friday, is critical for evaluating the future of U.S. interest rates [1] - If the inflation readings meet or fall below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for deeper policy easing in 2025-2026, putting downward pressure on yields and the dollar [1] - Only significantly better-than-expected data could meaningfully challenge the current expectations for a series of rate cuts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit bonds showed a compensatory rise this week, with most yields declining and credit spreads narrowing. The market is expected to consolidate around the 1.75% level, and investors can focus on adding positions in 4 - 5y bonds with spreads above the central level [5][10]. - The marginal release of negative factors in the bond market, with the main negative disturbances being the implementation of the fund sales fee policy and potential short - term increases in risk appetite. The attractiveness of medium - and long - term bonds with wider credit spreads has increased [5][10]. - The allocation power of funds for 3 - 5y credit bonds has recovered. The 4 - 5y bonds are cost - effective, and the narrowing of spreads is expected, but it may be difficult to reach the lows of July - August [2][14]. - For bonds over 5y, although the yields are high, caution is needed as they test the stability of the liability side. Institutions with stable liability sides can capture allocation opportunities, while those with weak liability sides should participate with small positions [3][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Strategy: 4 - 5y Bond Spreads Are Still Above the Central Level, and Positions Can Be Appropriately Added 3.1.1 Credit Bond Market Review: Yields Generally Declined, and Credit Spreads Generally Narrowed - This week, credit bonds compensated for the rise, with most yields declining and credit spreads narrowing. The capital price remained low, and the bond market was affected by various factors such as Sino - US tariff games, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the new regulations on public fund sales fees, showing a volatile trend. Institutions had a good allocation sentiment for credit bonds, and credit performance was better than interest - rate products [9]. 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future: Negative Factors Are Marginally Released, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Opportunity to Add Positions in 4 - 5y Bonds - The 10y Treasury bond's volatility center has moved down due to tariff shocks, and the market may consolidate around 1.75%. The negative factors in the bond market are marginally released, and the main negative disturbances are the implementation of the fund sales fee policy and potential short - term increases in risk appetite. The attractiveness of 4 - 5y bonds with spreads above the central level has increased [5][10]. 3.2 Key Policies and Hot Events: The New Policy - Based Financial Instruments in This Round Have Exceeded One Billion, and the Chairman of Vanke Has Changed - The Ministry of Finance will continue to issue in advance the new local government debt quota for 2026, which can be used for project construction, resolving implicit debts, and solving government arrears to enterprises [24]. - The first - phase funds of new policy - based financial instruments in 12 provinces have exceeded 1.1 billion, with local state - owned enterprises as the main recipients, including many urban investment companies [24]. - Xin Jie resigned as the chairman of Vanke, and Huang Liping took over. Vanke's bond valuation has fluctuated recently, and attention should be paid to Shenzhen Metro's support and debt - resolution plans [25]. - The Ministry of Finance has issued a quota of 28 billion yuan for Hebei Province to replace implicit debts in 2026, which is currently awaiting allocation [25]. - Beijing has issued a plan to strengthen the role of the capital market in supporting scientific and technological innovation, including creating a "Zhongguancun Science and Technology Board" for bonds and supporting eligible projects to issue REITs [26]. 3.3 Secondary Market: Credit Bond Yields Generally Declined, and Credit Spreads Generally Narrowed - This week, credit bond yields generally declined, and credit spreads generally narrowed. For different types of bonds such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, most yields declined and spreads narrowed, with some individual varieties showing different trends [29]. 3.4 Primary Market: The Net Financing of Credit Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds Increased Month - on - Month - This week, the issuance of credit bonds was 418.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 341.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 184.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 295 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was 22 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 89.9 billion yuan [6]. 3.5 Trading Liquidity: The Trading Activity in the Inter - bank and Exchange Markets of Credit Bonds Increased - This week, the trading activity in both the inter - bank and exchange markets of credit bonds increased [6]. 3.6 Rating Adjustments: No Rating Upgrades or Downgrades This Week - There were no rating upgrades or downgrades of bond issuers this week [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (from September 28 to October 11), the yield of most credit bonds declined, and the credit spread fluctuated slightly. The issuance volume, repayment volume, and net financing of traditional credit bonds decreased. The net financing of asset - backed securities decreased by 16.1 billion yuan. The issuance rates of AA and AA+ industrial bonds and AA+ and AAA financial bonds rose [1][2]. - Looking forward to October, the logic of loose liquidity persists, but institutional behavior and policy may restrict the performance of the credit bond market. Before the implementation of the redemption fee new rules, the credit allocation strategy should not be too radical. However, the resurgence of Sino - US trade friction may reduce market risk appetite and support the short - term credit long - making logic. It is recommended to allocate short - term bonds as the bottom position, increase the allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds, and use bond repurchase to increase leverage to enhance portfolio returns [3][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market - **Net Financing Scale**: The net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was - 112.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 269.9 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance volume was 131.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 459.7 billion yuan, and the total repayment volume was 243.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 189.9 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was - 15.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.1 billion yuan. By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased [9]. - **Issuance Cost**: The issuance rates of AA and AA+ industrial bonds returned above 3%, and the issuance rates of AA+ and AAA financial bonds rose above 2%. The increase was mainly due to the high - interest issuance of some bonds [16]. 3.2 Secondary Market - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The trading volume of credit bonds decreased by 50.5 billion yuan compared with last week. The turnover rate of most bond types decreased, except for industrial bonds which remained unchanged [17]. - **Yield**: The yields of most credit bonds with different ratings and maturities declined, with the short - end decline greater than the medium - and long - end. By bond type, taking AA+ 5 - year bonds as an example, the yield of urban investment bonds rose, while the yields of other bond types declined [22][23]. - **Credit Spread**: The credit spread of AA commercial trade industry widened significantly, while the credit spreads of AA+ electronics and textile and clothing industries compressed significantly. The credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 3BP. For urban investment bonds, the short - end spread compressed and the long - end spread widened. For industrial bonds, the short - end spread compressed slightly, and the spreads of other maturities widened. For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds with maturities below 5 years compressed, while the 10 - year credit spread widened [2][6][24]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Negative News - Six entities had a total of 10 bond implicit ratings downgraded, including Suning.com Group Co., Ltd., Ruikang Pharmaceutical (Shandong) Co., Ltd., etc. The bond "H1 Lvjing 01" issued by Zhengxinglong Real Estate (Shenzhen) Co., Ltd. was extended, and the bond "15 Tianan Property Insurance" issued by Tianan Property Insurance Co., Ltd. defaulted [2][36]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 133.04 billion yuan this week. The overnight capital rate remained low. It is recommended to be cautious in credit allocation before the implementation of the redemption fee new rules and adopt a strategy of short - end sinking as the bottom position and increasing the allocation of medium - and long - term credit bonds [39][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit bonds follow the interest rate recovery, with short - duration and high - grade varieties benefiting first. During the National Day holiday period (from September 28 to October 11, 2025), the bond market as a whole recovered, and credit bond yields declined accordingly [2][5]. - The spreads of urban investment bonds remained generally stable. Spreads of externally rated AA + platforms generally increased by 1BP, while those of AAA and AA platforms remained flat [2][9]. - Industrial bonds showed mixed trends with limited overall changes. Spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds continued to widen [2][19]. - The yield spreads of secondary and perpetual bonds narrowed across the board, performing better than ordinary credit bond varieties. The yields of 3Y high - grade secondary bonds and 5Y high - grade perpetual bonds declined more significantly [2][27]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained stable, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds showed differentiation [2][30]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit bonds follow the interest rate recovery, with short - duration and high - grade varieties benefiting first - From September 28 to October 11, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y government - developed bonds decreased by 1BP, 4BP, 4BP, 4BP, and 4BP respectively. Credit bond yields also declined, with short - duration and high - grade varieties taking the lead. For example, the yield of 1Y AAA - rated credit bonds decreased by 8BP [2][5]. - In terms of credit spreads, the spreads of 1Y bonds of all grades converged, while those of other maturities widened. For example, the spread of 1Y AAA - rated bonds decreased by 7BP [2][5]. - Regarding rating spreads, the AA/AA - spread of 1Y bonds decreased by 3BP, while others increased by 2 - 3BP. In terms of term spreads, the 3Y/1Y spread of AAA - rated bonds increased by 3BP [5]. 2. The spreads of urban investment bonds remained generally stable - Externally rated AA + platform credit spreads generally increased by 1BP, while AAA and AA platforms remained flat. For example, in AAA - rated platforms, spreads in Shanxi, Anhui, Ningxia, Gansu, and Liaoning increased by 2 - 4BP, and that in Inner Mongolia increased by 6BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, the credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district - county platforms generally remained flat. For example, the spread of provincial platforms in Hunan decreased by 2BP, while that in Anhui increased by 2BP [2][17]. 3. Industrial bonds showed mixed trends with limited overall changes, and spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds continued to widen - This week, the spreads of central - state - owned real - estate bonds decreased by 4BP, those of local - state - owned real - estate bonds remained flat, while spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds increased by 12BP and 46BP respectively. For example, the spread of Longfor decreased by 1BP, while that of CIFI increased by 80BP [2][19]. - The spreads of coal bonds of all grades changed slightly within 1BP. The spread of AAA - rated steel bonds increased by 1BP, while that of AA + decreased by 1BP. The spread of AAA - rated chemical bonds decreased by 2BP, while that of AA + increased by 1BP [2][19]. 4. Secondary and perpetual bonds performed better than ordinary credit bonds, with the yields of 3Y secondary and 5Y perpetual bonds declining the most - This week, the yield spreads of secondary and perpetual bonds narrowed across the board. The yields of 3Y high - grade secondary bonds and 5Y high - grade perpetual bonds declined more significantly. For example, the yields of 1Y secondary capital bonds of all grades decreased by 6 - 8BP, and the credit spreads decreased by 5 - 7BP [2][27]. - The yields of 3Y AAA -, AA +, and AA - rated secondary capital bonds decreased by 11BP, 9BP, and 7BP respectively, and the spreads narrowed by 3 - 7BP [27]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remained stable, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds showed differentiation - This week, the excess spread of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds remained the same as last week at 14.52BP, at the 37.42% quantile since 2015. The excess spread of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 0.01BP to 12.39BP, at the 25.53% quantile since 2015 [30]. - The excess spread of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decreased by 2.76BP to 4.82BP, at the 2.57% quantile. The excess spread of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds increased by 5.51BP to 14.47BP, at the 23.55% quantile [30]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bonds data. Historical quantiles are calculated since the beginning of 2015 [35]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated as the individual bond's ChinaBond valuation (exercise) minus the yield to maturity of the same - maturity government - developed bond (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by the arithmetic average method [37]. - The excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of the same - grade and same - maturity bank ordinary bonds. The excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of the same - grade and same - maturity medium - term notes [37].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities maintains a "Neutral" rating on Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) due to slightly disappointing performance expectations for the fiscal year 2025 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company is benefiting from a rebound in the Hong Kong residential market, but the low profit margin from property development may lead to flat earnings per share and dividends in the short term [1] - The target price for Sun Hung Kai Properties has been slightly increased from HKD 94 to HKD 95 [1] Group 2: Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share forecast for fiscal years 2026 to 2027 has been adjusted downwards by 1% to 4% due to changes in property sales recognition timing [1] - Unless there is a significant increase in Hong Kong property prices in the short term, earnings per share for fiscal years 2026 to 2027 are expected to remain relatively flat [1] Group 3: Market Comparison - Compared to peers with a 4% yield, the potential for further compression of Sun Hung Kai Properties' yield is considered limited [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Conch Venture (00586.HK) reported a 9% year-on-year increase in net profit to 1.29 billion RMB in the first half of the year, primarily benefiting from the significant profit contribution from its associate company, Conch Cement [1] - Excluding this contribution, the core net profit for the first half decreased by 6% to 446 million RMB [1] - The company declared its first interim dividend of 0.1 HKD per share, resulting in a payout ratio of only 12% [1] Group 2 - Bank of America forecasts a revenue yield of 5.1% for the company this year, with an upward adjustment to 6.5% to 8.4% for 2026 to 2027 [1] - The target price for Conch Venture has been raised from 10.1 HKD to 12 HKD, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - As of August 28, 2025, Conch Venture's stock closed at 10.55 HKD, down 2.31%, with a trading volume of 16.23 million shares and a turnover of 170 million HKD [1] Group 3 - Conch Venture has a market capitalization of 19.354 billion HKD, ranking second in the environmental engineering and services industry [1] - Key performance indicators show a Return on Equity (ROE) of 4.43%, a net profit margin of 42.79%, and a debt ratio of 40.05% [1] - The company ranks 12th in ROE, 1st in net profit margin, and 14th in debt ratio compared to industry averages [1]

Overall Summary - **Report Period**: August 11 - August 17, 2025 [1][11] - **Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The issuance guidance rates from the Dealer Association showed a differentiated trend, with high - grade rates rising and medium - low - grade rates falling. Credit bond issuance volume decreased, and net financing turned negative. Secondary - market trading volume declined, yields rose, and credit spreads showed mixed trends. Currently, the allocation cost - effectiveness is low. In the long run, yields are in a downward channel, but due to high prices, the allocation pace can be slowed. For relative returns, credit - sinking and duration - stretching are not cost - effective, and high - grade short - term bonds can be considered for defense [1][60] 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance and Maturity Scale - Total credit bonds issued 350 with an amount of 260.56 billion yuan, a 29.04% decrease from the previous period. Net financing was - 12.116 billion yuan, a decrease of 203.684 billion yuan [11] - Enterprise bonds had zero issuance with a net financing of - 16.575 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.059 billion yuan [11] - Corporate bonds issued 126 with an amount of 96.654 billion yuan, an 8.73% increase; net financing was 43.48 billion yuan, an increase of 10.703 billion yuan [11] - Medium - term notes issued 116 with an amount of 92.57 billion yuan, a 43.70% decrease; net financing was 20.422 billion yuan, a decrease of 92.531 billion yuan [11] - Short - term financing bills issued 91 with an amount of 61.219 billion yuan, a 39.28% decrease; net financing was - 52.858 billion yuan, a decrease of 104.478 billion yuan [11] - Private placement notes issued 17 with an amount of 9.613 billion yuan, a 22.10% decrease; net financing was - 6.585 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.319 billion yuan [11] 1.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The issuance guidance rates from the Dealer Association showed a high - grade up and medium - low - grade down trend, with a change range of - 3 BP to 2 BP [1][15] - For 1 - year terms, the rate change was between - 1 BP and 2 BP; for 3 - year terms, between - 2 BP and 2 BP; for 5 - year terms, between - 3 BP and 2 BP; for 7 - year terms, between - 3 BP and 2 BP [15] - For key AAA and AAA grades, the rate change was between 0 BP and 2 BP; for AA + grade, between - 1 BP and 1 BP; for AA grade, between - 3 BP and - 1 BP; for AA - grade, between - 3 BP and - 2 BP [15] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Market Trading Volume - Total credit - bond trading volume was 775.373 billion yuan, a 7.29% decrease from the previous period [19] - Enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes' trading volumes decreased, while short - term financing bills and private placement notes' trading volumes increased [1][19] 2.2 Credit Spreads - For medium - and short - term notes, most credit spreads narrowed, especially for 5 - year terms, except for the 3 - year AAA - grade spread which widened [22][25] - For enterprise bonds, most credit spreads narrowed, especially for 5 - year terms, except for the 3 - year AA + grade which remained unchanged [29] - For urban investment bonds, credit spreads showed a differentiated trend. 1 - year and 5 - year spreads generally narrowed, while 3 - year and 7 - year spreads generally widened [1][39] 2.3 Term Spreads and Rating Spreads - For AA + medium - and short - term notes, 3Y - 1Y, 5Y - 3Y, and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened. Rating spreads for 3 - year medium - and short - term notes generally narrowed [47] - For AA + enterprise bonds, 3Y - 1Y and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened, 5Y - 3Y narrowed. Rating spreads for 3 - year enterprise bonds had mixed trends [52] - For AA + urban investment bonds, 3Y - 1Y and 7Y - 3Y term spreads widened, 5Y - 3Y narrowed. Rating spreads for 3 - year urban investment bonds had mixed trends [53] 3. Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Bond Statistics 3.1 Credit Rating Adjustment - No company rating (including outlook) adjustments during the period [58] 3.2 Default and Extension Bonds - No credit - bond defaults or extensions during the period [59] 4. Investment Views Credit Bonds - From an absolute - return perspective, supply shortages and strong allocation demand support credit bonds. Although fluctuations are inevitable, yields are in a downward channel in the long run. Due to high prices, the allocation pace can be slowed, and bonds can be added during adjustments. Pay attention to interest - rate bond trends and coupon values. Consider bonds of relevant entities underperforming in the Sci - tech Innovation Bond ETF [1][60] - From a relative - return perspective, since rating spreads are at historical lows, credit - sinking and duration - stretching are not cost - effective. High - grade short - term bonds can be used for defense [1][60] Real Estate Bonds - With the real - estate market gradually stabilizing, high - risk - appetite funds can consider early layout, focusing on the balance between risk and return. Allocate to central and state - owned enterprises with stable historical valuations and high - quality private - enterprise bonds with strong guarantees. Long - term allocation can increase returns, and trading opportunities from undervalued real - estate bonds can be explored [2][62] Urban Investment Bonds - In the context of stable growth and prevention of systemic risks, the probability of urban investment bond defaults is low. They can still be a key allocation for credit bonds. The short - term credit risk is low, and the current strategy can be positive. However, during the process of local financing platform clearance and transformation, some urban investment bonds may face valuation fluctuations. Future opportunities in the reform and transformation of "entity - type" financing platforms can be monitored [2][62]

Group 1 - Credit bond yields have generally risen, with financial bond spreads widening more than non-financial credit bonds. The 5-year and 7-year spreads for lower-rated bonds narrowed significantly, by 4-8 basis points [2][10] - The 3-year financial bonds saw a notable widening in spreads, particularly for perpetual bonds, with 3-year spreads widening by 3-4 basis points [2][10] - The overall turnover rate of credit bonds decreased from 1.99% to 1.93%, indicating a decline in market activity. The weighted average transaction duration for all credit bonds fell from 3.1 years to 3.0 years [3][10] Group 2 - Institutional behavior shows an increased allocation to credit bonds by wealth management and insurance sectors, while funds have reduced their holdings in secondary capital bonds. Wealth management has focused on increasing positions in bonds with maturities of one year or less [4][10] - Market sentiment remains cautious, with a recommendation to prioritize defensive strategies. It is suggested to adopt a short-duration strategy to enhance returns while maintaining portfolio stability [5][10] Group 3 - The average yield for city investment bonds with an implied rating of AA- and above is 2.12%, with significant variations across provinces. High-yield city investment bonds are concentrated in longer-term bonds [13][17] - The average yield for industrial bonds with an implied rating of AA- and above is 1.90%, with the textile and social services sectors showing higher yields [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the psychological factors influencing investors during a bull market, emphasizing that smaller investors often chase high returns, leading to significant losses, while advocating for a diversified investment strategy to achieve stable returns over time [6][9][42]. Group 1: Investor Behavior in Bull Markets - Smaller investors tend to pursue high returns during bull markets, which can lead to substantial losses [9]. - Historical data shows that in the 2015 bull market, 85% of investors with the least capital lost a total of 250 billion, while the top 0.5% gained 254 billion [7]. - The fear of missing out and the tendency to sell during market dips can exacerbate losses for smaller investors [15][18]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Diversified investment, including assets like gold and bonds, can provide stable returns of 8%-15%, regardless of A-share market conditions [35]. - A long-term, stable return strategy is more beneficial than chasing short-term high returns, as consistent positive returns compound over time [39]. - Regular contributions from salary can gradually increase investment capital, which is advantageous for smaller investors [42].