Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Report's Core View - Credit bonds return to strength, with yields of 3Y and above varieties generally declining by around 5BP. Interest rates of interest rate bonds fluctuate and decline, and credit spreads mostly decline except for some high-grade short-duration varieties [2][5]. - Credit spreads of urban investment bonds decline across the board, with spreads of each variety decreasing by about 4BP [2][9]. - Most credit spreads of industrial bonds decline, while those of mixed-ownership real estate bonds slightly increase [2][18]. - Yields of secondary and perpetual bonds decline across the board, and their overall performance is stronger than that of ordinary credit bonds [2][23]. - Excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds are generally stable, while those of 3Y urban investment perpetual bonds decline [2][25]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit bonds return to strength, with yields of 3Y and above varieties generally declining by around 5BP - Interest rate bond yields fluctuate and decline. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y Guokai bonds decline by 3BP, 2BP, 1BP, and 4BP respectively, and the 10Y yield remains flat [2][5]. - Credit bond yields return to a downward trend. Yields of 3Y and above varieties generally decline by around 5BP, and credit spreads mostly decline except for some high-grade short-duration varieties [2][5]. - Rating spreads and term spreads mostly remain flat or decline [5]. 2. Credit spreads of urban investment bonds decline across the board - Credit spreads of external rating AAA, AA+, and AA platforms all decline by about 4BP. Spreads of most AAA-level platforms decline by 3 - 4BP, AA+ by 3 - 5BP, and AA by 3 - 6BP [2][9]. - By administrative level, credit spreads of provincial, municipal, and district-level platforms all decline by 4BP [2][16]. 3. Most credit spreads of industrial bonds decline, while those of mixed-ownership real estate bonds slightly increase - Credit spreads of central and local state-owned real estate bonds decline by 4BP, those of mixed-ownership real estate bonds increase by 2BP, and those of private real estate bonds increase by 13BP [2][18]. - Credit spreads of coal bonds at all levels decline by 3BP, those of AAA and AA+ steel bonds decline by 3BP and 4BP respectively, and those of chemical bonds at all levels decline by 4 - 5BP [2][18]. 4. Yields of secondary and perpetual bonds decline across the board, and their overall performance is stronger than that of ordinary credit bonds - Yields of secondary and perpetual bonds follow the decline of certificate of deposit rates. Spreads of medium and short-term high-grade varieties compress significantly [2][23]. - Specifically, the yield of 1Y AAA- secondary capital bonds declines by 9BP, and the spread compresses by 6BP. Yields of other grades decline by 8BP, and spreads compress by 4 - 5BP [23]. 5. Excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds are generally stable, while those of 3Y urban investment perpetual bonds decline - The excess spread of industrial AAA3Y perpetual bonds increases by 0.01BP to 3.82BP, and that of AAA5Y remains flat at 8.51BP [2][25]. - The excess spread of urban investment AAA3Y perpetual bonds declines by 2.38BP to 3.76BP, and that of AAA5Y increases by 0.10BP to 9.91BP [25]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market-wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and credit spreads of urban investment/industrial perpetual bonds are calculated based on ChinaBond medium and short-term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bonds data [27]. - Credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated by subtracting the yield of the same-term government bond from the medium-term valuation of the individual bond, and then the arithmetic average method is used to calculate the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban investment [31]. - Samples of medium-term notes and public corporate bonds are selected for industrial and urban investment bonds, and guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded [31].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, indicated that the country's financing needs may increase based on yield trends [1] Group 1 - The statement suggests a potential rise in financing requirements for the U.S. government [1]

Group 1 - The macro environment for credit bonds remains favorable in July 2025, with a focus on new supply and demand changes, particularly the expansion of credit bond ETFs [3] - Credit bond supply is not expected to improve significantly, but structural changes are emerging, with a notable increase in the issuance of technology innovation bonds [3] - The overall yield of various credit bonds is at a relatively low level since 2024, with credit spreads showing differentiation, particularly in the short and medium to long-term segments [3][26] Group 2 - The credit bond market is expected to experience a strong but volatile performance in July, supported by the recovery of wealth management scale and the expansion of ETFs, which may further improve demand for credit bonds [3] - A stable coupon strategy is recommended, with a focus on opportunities and risks arising from the expansion of credit bond ETFs [3] - The report suggests a 2-3 year short to medium-term strategy while actively exploring the value of medium to high-grade credit bonds in the 3-5 year range, particularly 4-5 year bonds [3] Group 3 - The characteristics of credit bond ETF constituent bonds include a predominance of high ratings (AA+ and above), with a higher proportion of central and state-owned enterprises [7] - Recent performance of constituent bonds has been strong, with increased liquidity and a relative decline in yields and credit spreads compared to non-constituent bonds [7] - Strategies for credit bond ETF expansion include early positioning in constituent bonds before listing and focusing on related non-constituent bond opportunities [7][5] Group 4 - In June 2025, the issuance and net financing of traditional credit bonds increased, with a total issuance of 1.304 trillion yuan and net financing of 252.7 billion yuan [13] - The net financing of urban investment bonds expanded further, while the issuance and net financing of industrial bonds also saw a significant increase [13] - The report highlights that the credit bond yield overall declined in June, with long-term bonds outperforming short-term ones [19][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The logic of being bullish on credit bonds with a yield of over 2% remains unchanged this week. It is recommended to moderately lower the credit quality and extend the duration, especially focusing on medium- to long-term high-coupon urban investment bonds and bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with a yield of over 2% and good liquidity [2][43]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) was 153.6 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 110.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 427.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 150.7 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 273.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.8 billion yuan. The net financing of asset-backed securities was 8.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.3 billion yuan [7]. - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 49.5 billion yuan, an increase of 32.5 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 48.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 97.3 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 55.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 46.2 billion yuan [7]. - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance of urban investment bonds increased by 4, and the redemption decreased by 17; the issuance of industrial bonds decreased by 21, and the redemption remained unchanged; the issuance of financial bonds decreased by 6, and the redemption decreased by 16 [9]. 1.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance rates of AA industrial bonds, AA+ and AAA financial bonds increased significantly, while the issuance rate of AA+ industrial bonds decreased. The issuance rates of other bonds with different ratings changed by no more than 4BP [15]. - Specifically, the issuance rate of AA+ financial bonds increased by 63BP, mainly due to the high issuance costs and large issuance scales of bonds such as "25 Chouzhou Commercial Bank Tier 2 Capital Bond 01" and "25 Chengde Bank Perpetual Bond 01". The issuance rate of AAA financial bonds increased by 20BP, mainly due to the 30 billion yuan issuance of "25 Minsheng Bank Perpetual Bond 01" with an issuance rate of 2.3%. The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds increased by 18BP, mainly due to the high issuance rates of bonds such as "25 Jingjiang Beichen MTN003" and "25 Zhongtou 01". The issuance rate of AA+ industrial bonds decreased by 15BP, mainly due to the large number of bonds issued with a coupon rate below 2.3% [15]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trading Volume - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset-backed securities) decreased by 129.9 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 293.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 432.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.3 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 511.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 90.5 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset-backed securities was 26.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7 billion yuan [16]. - In terms of turnover rate, the turnover rate of traditional credit bonds decreased overall, while the turnover rate of asset-backed securities increased. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.89%, a decrease of 0.03 percentage points; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 2.49%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.54%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points. The turnover rate of asset-backed securities was 0.75%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [17]. 2.2 Yield - The yield of credit bonds fluctuated slightly this week, with the long - end performing better than the medium - and short - ends. Specifically, the yields of AA+, AAA - and AAA bonds with a maturity of over 10 years decreased by 2BP, 3BP and 1BP respectively compared to last week. The yields of AA+, AAA - bonds with a maturity of 3 - 5 years and AA+ bonds with a maturity of 5 - 7 years decreased by less than 1BP. The yields of credit bonds with other ratings and maturities increased by 0 - 4BP [21]. - By product type, taking the AA+ 5 - year bonds of each product as an example, the yields of different products showed mixed trends. Among industrial bonds, the yields of privately - issued industrial bonds and extendible industrial bonds decreased by 4BP and increased by 1BP respectively compared to last week. Among urban investment bonds, the yield of AA+ 5 - year urban investment bonds increased by 1BP. Among financial bonds, the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds decreased by 1BP and increased by 1BP respectively. Among asset - backed securities, the yield of AA+ 5 - year asset - backed securities increased by less than 1BP [22]. 2.3 Credit Spread - Overall, the credit spreads of most industries fluctuated slightly this week, and the credit spread of the AA+ electronics industry contracted significantly. Specifically, the credit spread of the AA real estate industry widened by 14BP; the credit spreads of the AA+ electronics and electrical equipment industries contracted by 62BP and 9BP respectively, and the credit spread of the steel industry widened by 12BP; the credit spread of the AAA electrical equipment industry contracted by 9BP. The fluctuations of credit spreads of bonds in other industries and ratings were no more than 5BP [23]. 2.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - By maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds within 5 years widened slightly, while those over 5 years compressed slightly. Specifically, the credit spread of 0.5 - 1 - year urban investment bonds was 43BP, an increase of 2BP; the credit spread of 1 - 3 - year urban investment bonds was 44BP, an increase of 2BP; the credit spread of 3 - 5 - year urban investment bonds was 63BP, an increase of 1BP; the credit spread of 5 - 10 - year urban investment bonds was 53BP, a decrease of 1BP; the credit spread of over 10 - year urban investment bonds was 43BP, a decrease of 4BP [27]. - By region, the credit spreads of AA urban investment bonds in Shanxi and AAA urban investment bonds in Jilin widened significantly, while the credit spread of AA urban investment bonds in Liaoning compressed by 6BP. The fluctuations in other regions were relatively small [28]. 2.3.2 Industrial Bonds - The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed mixed trends this week, and the 5 - year industrial bonds performed well overall. Specifically, the credit spreads of 5 - year AAA -, AA+ and AA privately - issued industrial bonds compressed by 1BP, 4BP and 4BP respectively, and the credit spreads of 5 - year AAA - and AA extendible industrial bonds compressed by 2BP and 3BP respectively. The credit spreads of industrial bonds with other maturities and different subject ratings mostly widened compared to last week, with a fluctuation range of 0 - 3BP [31]. 2.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds mostly widened slightly this week. By product and maturity, for bank Tier 2 capital bonds, the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 1 year widened by 3BP, 2BP and 2BP respectively, and the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 10 years widened by 2BP, 2BP and 2BP respectively. For bank perpetual bonds, the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 1 year widened by 3BP, 3BP and 4BP respectively, and the credit spreads of AAA -, AA+ and AA bonds with a maturity of 10 years widened by 2BP, 2BP and 2BP respectively [35]. 3. This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - Due to the concentrated disclosure of bond follow - up rating reports near the end of June, there were many credit negative events this week. - Convertible bond negative sentiment: 16 issuers had their ratings downgraded, and the ratings of 16 convertible bonds they issued were also downgraded; 2 issuers were put on the watch list, and the 2 convertible bonds they issued were also put on the watch list [38]. - Other credit negatives: 3 issuers had their ratings downgraded, 37 bond issues had their ratings downgraded, and 10 bond issues had their implied ratings downgraded. Guizhou Shuicheng Economic Development Zone High - tech Development Investment Co., Ltd. was put on the issuer watch list, and its "18 Shuicheng High - tech Bond" was put on the bond watch list [40]. 4. Investment Suggestion - The central bank achieved a net injection of 126.72 billion yuan this week, and DR001 decreased from 1.35% at the beginning of the week to 1.29%. - Overall, the credit spreads of most industries fluctuated slightly, the credit spread of the AA+ electronics industry contracted significantly. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds within 5 years widened slightly, while those over 5 years compressed slightly. The credit spreads of industrial bonds showed mixed trends, and the 5 - year industrial bonds performed well. The credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds mostly widened slightly. The yields of credit bonds fluctuated slightly, with the long - end performing better than the medium - and short - ends. - It is recommended to continue to focus on bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds of banks such as Minsheng Bank, Bohai Bank and Hengfeng Bank, and urban investment bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Shaanxi and Tianjin, such as Yunnan Construction Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., Xianyang Urban Development Group Co., Ltd. and Tianjin Bohai State - owned Assets Management Co., Ltd., which have relatively high static coupon rates [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The rally of ultra-long credit bonds has paused, with 3 - 5-year medium and low-grade bonds performing better. Interest rate bond yields have shown narrow fluctuations overall, while credit bond yields have also maintained a volatile pattern. Credit spreads have different changes across various maturities and ratings [2][5]. - Most urban investment bond spreads have increased, with varying trends among different regions and ratings [2][9]. - Industrial bond spreads are generally stable, but the spreads of mixed-ownership real estate bonds continue to rise [2][13]. - Most yields of secondary capital and perpetual bonds (Two-Permanent Bonds) have increased, and the spreads have slightly widened [2][26]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds have decreased, while those of urban investment perpetual bonds have slightly increased [2][28]. Summary by Directory 1. The Rally of Ultra-long Credit Bonds Pauses, 3 - 5-year Medium and Low-grade Bonds Perform Better - Interest rate bond yields have narrow fluctuations: 1Y and 5Y Guokai bond yields have decreased by 1BP, 3Y yields remain flat, and 7Y and 10Y yields have increased by 1 - 2BP [5]. - Credit bond yields are volatile: The yields of 7-year and 3 - 5-year high-grade bonds have rebounded, while 3 - 5-year medium and low-grade bonds perform relatively strongly. Yield changes vary by maturity and rating [5]. - Credit spreads: 1Y spreads change between -1 and 1BP; 3Y AAA spreads increase by 3BP, others decrease by 2BP; 5Y AAA spreads increase by 3BP, others decrease by 3 - 4BP; 7Y spreads increase by 0 - 1BP; 10Y spreads of AAA, AA+, and AA change by 2BP, -2BP, and 1BP respectively [2][5]. - Rating and term spreads show obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Most Urban Investment Bond Spreads Increase - External ratings: AAA and AA+ platform spreads increase by 2BP, AA platform spreads increase by 3BP [2][9]. - Provincial platforms: Most AAA platform spreads increase by 1 - 3BP, with Guangxi decreasing by 4BP, Jilin and Liaoning increasing by 5BP; most AA+ platform spreads increase by 1 - 3BP, Jilin increasing by 7BP; most AA platform spreads increase by 1 - 3BP, Liaoning decreasing by 6BP, Xinjiang and Gansu increasing by 4BP [9][10][11]. - Administrative levels: Provincial, prefecture-level, and district-level platform spreads all increase by 2BP, with different trends in different regions [14][15]. 3. Industrial Bond Spreads are Generally Stable, Mixed-ownership Real Estate Bond Spreads Continue to Rise - Real estate bonds: Central and local state-owned enterprise real estate bond spreads are basically flat compared to last week, mixed-ownership real estate bond spreads increase by 8BP, and private enterprise real estate bond spreads increase by 40BP. Spreads of individual real estate companies vary [2][13]. - Other industrial bonds: AAA coal bond spreads increase by 1BP, AA+ remain flat, AA decrease by 1BP; AAA and AA+ steel bond spreads decrease by 1BP and 2BP respectively; spreads of various grades of chemical bonds increase by 0 - 1BP. Spreads of individual companies such as Shaanxi Coal and HBIS decrease by 1BP, while Jinkong Coal Industry increases by 7BP [13]. 4. Most Yields of Two-Permanent Bonds Increase, Spreads Slightly Widen - 1Y bonds: Secondary capital bond yields of all grades increase by 1 - 2BP, perpetual bond yields increase by 2 - 3BP, and spreads generally increase by 2 - 3BP [26]. - 3Y bonds: Secondary capital bond yields of all grades increase by 2 - 4BP, perpetual bond yields increase by 1BP, and spreads increase in line with yields [26]. - 5Y bonds: Yields and spreads of all grades of Two-Permanent Bonds increase by 0 - 1BP [26]. 5. The Excess Spreads of Industrial Perpetual Bonds Decrease, Urban Investment Bond Excess Spreads Slightly Increase - Industrial perpetual bonds: The excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decrease by 2.38BP to 3.81BP, at the 0.07% percentile since 2015; the excess spreads of AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decrease by 2.60BP to 8.51BP, at the 5.80% percentile [2][28]. - Urban investment perpetual bonds: The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds increase by 0.15BP to 6.14BP, at the 2.86% percentile; the excess spreads of AAA 5Y perpetual bonds increase by 0.44BP to 9.81BP, at the 8.80% percentile [2][28]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond Medium and Short-term Notes and ChinaBond Perpetual Bonds data, with historical percentiles since early 2015 [36]. - Credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated by subtracting the yield of the same-term Guokai bond from the individual bond's ChinaBond valuation, and then averaged to get the industry or regional credit spreads [36]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital and perpetual bonds, as well as industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds, are calculated by subtracting the credit spreads of corresponding benchmark bonds [36]. - Samples of industrial and urban investment bonds are selected from medium notes and public corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed and perpetual bonds. Bonds with remaining maturities below 0.5 years or above 5 years are excluded [36]. - Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings [36].

信用债收益率跟随利率下行 7 年期品种表现强势 —— 信用利差周度跟踪 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 6 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 证券研究报告 债券研究 3信用债收益率跟随利率下行 7 年期品种表现强势 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 6 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com [➢Table_Summary] 信用债收益率跟随利率下行，7 年期品种表现强势。本周利率债收益率整体 下行，1Y 和 3Y 期国开债收益率下行 2BP，5Y、7Y 和 10Y 期国开债收益率 下行 3BP。信用债收益率跟随下行，7Y 期品种下行幅度最大。1Y 期各等 级信用债收益率下行 2BP；3Y 期各等级信用债收益率下行 2-3BP；5Y 期 各等级信用债收益率下行 1-3BP；7Y 期各等级收益率下行 4BP；10Y 期 AAA、AA+和 AA 等级收益率 ...

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in selecting investment funds, suggesting that a solid understanding of fund basics is crucial for successful investing [2] - Key indicators to focus on when selecting funds include win rate, return rate, and drawdown data. A stable product should demonstrate the ability to consistently outperform benchmarks, with daily win rates relative to benchmarks serving as a significant reference [3] - The frequency of net value hitting new highs is also highlighted as an important metric, indicating smoother return curves [3] Group 2 - The article promotes an event called "中泰资管616宠粉节," encouraging fund holders to participate for a chance to win various prizes, which may enhance engagement and interest in the fund offerings [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan indicates a readiness to increase bond purchases if yields rise rapidly, while also preparing to modify its plans as necessary [1] Group 1 - The Bank of Japan continues to reduce its bond purchasing scale while maintaining flexibility, which is deemed appropriate [1]

日本内阁官房长官林芳正对美国外汇报告、收益率、债券发行不予置评。 ...

日本财务大臣加藤胜信拒绝对收益率和债券发行问题置评。 ...