Economic Competition Between Hubei and Henan - As of June 2025, the GDP gap between Hubei and Henan is only 200 billion yuan, with Hubei closing the gap by over 700 billion yuan from 2020 to 2024 [1] - The discussion around the potential shift of the title "Central China's Number One Province" is gaining traction, with predictions that this turning point may occur within the next two years [1] - Hubei has never held the title of "Central China's Number One Province," while Henan has maintained this position for decades [1] Hubei's Economic Growth Driven by Foreign Trade - In the first half of 2025, Hubei's total import and export value exceeded 400 billion yuan, reaching 402.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [2] - The second quarter saw an impressive growth rate of 39.1%, surpassing the national average by 34.6 percentage points [2] - Hubei's foreign trade has consistently broken records since 2020, with annual totals surpassing 4 billion, 5 billion, 6 billion, and 7 billion yuan in subsequent years [2] Characteristics of Hubei's Foreign Trade - Hubei's foreign trade is characterized by the rise of emerging markets, simultaneous efforts from both private and state-owned enterprises, and an optimized export product structure [3][4] - In the first half of 2025, Hubei's exports to Belt and Road countries reached 220.81 billion yuan, growing by 32.6% and accounting for over 50% of the province's total imports and exports [3] - Private enterprises played a significant role, with their import and export value reaching 286.25 billion yuan, a 32.9% increase, contributing 22.6 percentage points to Hubei's overall growth [3] Hubei's Industrial and High-Tech Manufacturing Growth - Hubei's industrial output value increased by 7.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 14.4% [5] - Key products such as lithium-ion batteries, electronic components, and complete computers saw production increases of 62.1%, 53.0%, and 31.5% respectively [5] - The province's industrial profit growth of 12.0% contrasts sharply with the national average of negative growth [5] Henan's Foreign Trade Performance - In the first half of 2025, Henan's exports reached 278.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%, slightly higher than Hubei's growth [7] - The recovery of mobile phone exports, which had previously declined, saw a significant increase of 58.6% in 2025 due to the return of iPhone orders to Zhengzhou [8] - Henan's high-tech product exports also grew significantly, with a total value of 123.69 billion yuan, marking a 75.8% increase [8] Henan's Industrial Transformation - Henan's high-tech manufacturing sector grew by 14.9% in the first half of 2025, outpacing Hubei [9] - The province is focusing on the development of new energy vehicles, with significant investments from major companies like BYD and CATL [9] - Despite progress, Henan still faces challenges in transitioning from traditional industries, with high-tech manufacturing accounting for only 14.0% of its industrial output [10]

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - Barclays reports that despite recent negative events, the US dollar has remained resilient, with no significant decline observed since May, even amid weak economic data and challenges to the Federal Reserve's credibility [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the US economy will recover in the coming months, which may support the dollar's continued strength [1] Group 2: Oil and Emerging Markets - Goldman Sachs states that a complete ban on Russian oil imports by the EU is unlikely due to reliance from certain member states like Hungary and Slovakia, and any potential ban would only redistribute oil flows rather than reduce global supply [2] - Goldman Sachs expects emerging market stocks and currencies to rise by the end of the year, raising the MSCI Emerging Markets Index target from 1,370 to 1,480 points, indicating a potential 10% upside [2] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Dongfang Jincheng forecasts stable and ample market liquidity by year-end, with potential for a new round of reserve requirement ratio cuts and government bond purchases [4] - CITIC Securities highlights the long video industry benefiting from favorable policies, which may enhance production capacity and efficiency for content creators [6][10] - CITIC Securities notes a recovery in the restaurant industry, with August seeing a year-on-year increase in dining revenue, suggesting structural opportunities for leading companies with strong compliance and quality [8] Group 4: Sector-Specific Developments - CITIC Securities indicates that the carbon fiber industry is in a recovery phase, with strong demand in wind energy and aerospace sectors, recommending attention to high-quality companies with international exposure [9] - China Galaxy Securities observes a slight increase in cement prices due to seasonal demand, with expectations for further price support from rising coal prices [11][12] - China Galaxy Securities also reports positive signals in panel procurement ahead of the overseas promotional season, indicating a potential peak in TV demand [13] Group 5: Electronic Materials - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of electronic cloth in the PCB-CCL supply chain, predicting a supply shortage for various specialty electronic cloth products until 2026, and recommends companies with rapid capacity expansion [14][15]

| 证券代码 | 证券名称 | 融资净买入额(万元) | | --- | --- | --- | | 513330.SH | 华夏恒生互联网科技业交易型开放式指 | 46.946 | | | 数证券投资基金(QDII) | | | 513050.SH | 易方达中证海外中国互联网 50 交易型开 | 44.124 | | | 放式指数证券投资基金 | | | 512880.SH | 国泰中证全指证券公司交易型开放式指 | 32.786 | | | 数证券投资基金 | | | 511520.SH | 富国中债 7-10 年政策性金融债交易型开 | 27.800 | | | 放式指数证券投资基金 | | | 588200.SH | 嘉实上证科创板芯片交易型开放式指数 | 21.296 | | | 证券投资基金 | | | 512000.SH | 华宝中证全指证券公司交易型开放式指 | 17.533 | | | 数证券投资基金 | | | 512890.SH | 华泰柏瑞中证红利低波动交易型开放式 | 15.832 | | | 指数证券投资基金 | | | | 易方达国证机器人产业交易型开放式指 | | HRILE ...

9月12日，在2025年中国国际服务贸易交易会举办期间，由北京市"两区"办主办、全球化智库（CCG）承办的2025"北京'两区'建设与企业全球化论坛"（第 十二届中国企业全球化论坛）在北京举办。在以"数智时代新兴市场的战略机遇"为主题的圆桌对话环节，嘉宾围绕企业国际化、人工智能发展、新兴市场 开拓、本土化策略及共建共享等关键议题进行了深入研讨。 全球化智库（CCG）副主任、高级研究员刘宏(主持人) 中国企业走向国际化，常面临如何应对碎片化市场，以及如何采取"重起轻放"的策略应对挑战。基于中国体量、中国思路以及改变河山的勇气，企业需要 在新兴市场中探索适合当地的成长轨迹。 另外，在我们满怀激情、希望通过AI推动社会进步的同时，也应花些时间观察异国他乡的细微景象——路边的小草、当地的风土人情——这些都是生活 的一部分，也能为我们理解和融入当地市场提供启示。 鹰瞳科技合伙人、国际部总裁陈雪玲 鹰瞳科技(Airdoc)是全球第一家用"AI医疗"在港股上市的公司，十年前鹰瞳就十分看好人工智能与医疗领域的发展。 回顾十年出海历程，可总结为一个"核心铁三角"：第一，深度本土化；第二，创新商业模式；第三，与本地共建生态。 换 ...

9月23日，A股三大指数小幅高开后涨跌分化，表征核心龙头资产的MSCI中国A50互联互通指数逆 势上涨约0.65%，成分股立讯精密涨超8%，中际旭创、农业银行、工业富联等跟涨。 瑞银通过五大指标考察全球资金向新兴市场（EM）轮动的速度，发现中国股市本月"北向通"和"南 向通"日均成交额均创历史新高（前者达2024年10月水平的1.6倍），显示境内外资金流动活跃。但散户 资金远未过热：融资余额占市值比例仅为2015年峰值的一半，银行存款规模较A股市值高出约59万亿元 （十年均值：30万亿元）。鉴于估值仍具吸引力，瑞银在新兴市场框架内维持对MSCI中国的超配观 点。 A50ETF（159601）紧密跟踪MSCI中国A50互联互通指数，一键打包50只龙头互联互通标的，均衡 覆盖A股市场核心龙头资产表现，是境内外资金优选之选。相较市场其余"漂亮50"指数，MSCI中国A50 互联互通指数在编制过程中更侧重于流动性与行业均衡，大市值特征显著。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示 ...

Core Insights - The sixth China Cross-Border E-Commerce Fair will take place from March 18 to 20, 2026, in Fuzhou, focusing on "Digital Empowerment and Cross-Border Win-Win" as its theme, aiming to explore new opportunities in cross-border e-commerce and lead the digital transformation of global trade [1] Group 1: Scale and Platform Development - The exhibition area will exceed 120,000 square meters, a 20% increase from the previous edition, with 10 themed exhibition zones covering the entire industry chain of cross-border e-commerce [3] - Over 2,500 exhibitors are expected, including major platforms like Amazon, eBay, and SHEIN, along with more than 1,000 source factories and service providers [3] - The fair will adhere to UFI international certification standards, enhancing its internationalization and professionalism, providing an efficient platform for exhibitors [3] Group 2: Digital Innovation - Digital technology will be a core focus, showcasing AI applications in cross-border e-commerce, including smart product selection, precise marketing, intelligent customer service, and logistics optimization [6] - The "Brand Going Global" initiative will highlight domestic brands showcasing their products and sharing internationalization experiences, promoting the upgrade from "manufacturing" to "creation" and "branding" [6] Group 3: Geographical Advantages - Fuzhou's advantageous geographical location and comprehensive transportation network make it a key hub connecting the "Belt and Road" initiative with Southeast Asia and Japan/Korea markets [7] - The modern facilities of the Strait International Exhibition Center are conveniently located just 20 minutes from Fuzhou Changle International Airport, facilitating easy access for global exhibitors and buyers [7] Group 4: Future Opportunities - The cross-border e-commerce industry is expected to see two major trends in 2026: the rise of green supply chains and the unlocking of potential in emerging markets [9] - Environmental concepts will be deeply integrated into cross-border logistics and packaging design, becoming a necessary direction for corporate transformation [9] - Emerging markets in Southeast Asia and Latin America will provide significant growth opportunities for Chinese enterprises [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is expected to have a limited short-term impact on the domestic A-share market, which has already seen a period of continuous growth [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has recently fallen below its 20-day moving average, indicating a need for technical consolidation, while the Shenzhen Component Index remains relatively strong [1] - Market focus has shifted towards growth sectors such as new energy and robotics, with technology stocks leading in gains and small-cap stocks showing resilience [1] Group 2 - The market is currently undergoing a technical adjustment after a period of upward movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index in a horizontal consolidation phase since late August [2] - Despite attempts to reach new highs, the market is facing increasing upward pressure, yet the current adjustment remains in a relatively strong state, with previous resistance levels now acting as support [2] - Structural opportunities continue to be a key characteristic of the market, as some sector indices maintain an upward trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart the interest rate cut cycle is expected to drive significant gains in emerging market debt, marking the largest rally in recent years [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Year-to-date, dollar-denominated local government bonds in developing countries have delivered a 15% return, potentially achieving the best annual performance since 2017 [1]. - Emerging market government bonds have outperformed most global fixed-income assets, with a 15% increase, more than double the 5.4% rise of the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Index [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Local currency-denominated bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with institutions like DoubleLine Capital and JPMorgan Asset Management favoring these assets [2]. - The strategy of borrowing from low-interest countries to invest in high-yield markets is deemed "irreplaceable" for the remainder of the year by Bank of America [2]. Group 3: Economic Factors - The weakening of the dollar and the potential for currency appreciation are expected to enhance returns on local currency-denominated bonds [4]. - The Federal Reserve's actions are believed to support the view of a weaker dollar and future interest rate declines, benefiting emerging market stocks and bonds [4]. Group 4: Fund Flows - Emerging market debt funds have seen a net inflow of approximately $300 million in the week ending September 17, marking 22 consecutive weeks of inflows, totaling $45 billion year-to-date [7]. - The current environment continues to support emerging markets, with a clear trend favoring these investments [8].

降息周期开启，周期有何投资机会？20250921 摘要 BDI 指数在历史降息周期中显著上涨，当前干散货运价仍处底部。关注 招商轮船、海通发展等标的，以及在新兴市场具有成长性的嘉友国际。 降息利好新兴市场基建和消费，推动资金流入。看好极兔速递在新兴市 场电商爆发期的发展潜力，尤其是在东南亚和拉美地区。 美元贬值及人民币升值利好航空板块，带来汇兑收益。推荐华夏航空、 港股中的国航、东航、南航，以及 A 股中的吉祥航空和春秋航空。 游轮运价近期大幅上涨，供需关系反转是主因。OPEC 恢复产量， VLOC 游轮交付量减少，美国制裁影响供给。推荐具备游轮和干散货双 重优势的招商轮船。 8 月通达系快递单票价格上涨，9 月涨价区域扩大至全国 90%件量份额 区域，快递行业反内卷成功，业绩有望改善。推荐圆通、申通及极兔速 递。 美联储降息打开国内降息空间，中美关系缓和利好风险偏好。化工行业 PPI 降幅收窄，景气度见底。关注烯烃（宝丰能源、卫星化学）、涤纶、 有机硅（新安股份、三友化工、东岳硅材）和农化（亚钾国际、东方铁 塔）子板块。 市场对有色金属板块看多，预计下周将交易降息预期。铜和黄金预计领 涨，关注紫金矿业、中国 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 近期多个积极因素共同推动人民币走强。 8月中下旬以来，人民币汇率走强并向中间价靠拢。美国劳动力市场数据疲软，鲍威尔在Jackson Hole会议上强 调应对就业下行风险的必要性，市场降息预期升温。国内出口维持强势，结汇率回升并带动净结汇率转正，在多个积极因素共同作用下，人民币汇率出现 升值。 中长期看，美国"大重置"进程下（详见 《特朗普"大重置"：债务化解、脱虚向实、美元贬值》 ），货币配合财政，或将开启美元新一轮贬值 周 期。 美元汇率通过实体和金融渠道影响全球资本流动、风险偏好和经济基本面，其中金融渠道占主导作用，对新兴经济影响尤其显著。 弱美元周期下，全球 跨境资金流动加快，改善新兴市场国家的资产负债表，推动新兴市场国家加快资本开支和经济基本面改善。此外，美元走弱促使全球投资者在更高回报预 期驱动下将资金更多配置在新兴市场，带来新兴市场的市场流动性改善和资产重估，推动新兴市场国家权益跑赢发达市场。 具 体来看，宽货币、弱美元利好全球经济共振复苏，将推动A/港股盈利、估值和流动性均出现改善。 盈利方面，美元贬值 周期往 往提振全球投资需求和新兴市场经济增长 ...