Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy cycle on the exchange rates of major emerging market currencies from January 2019 to April 2025, revealing a shift in the response of these currencies to U.S. monetary policy changes, indicating a departure from the previous trend of general depreciation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Background and Context - The article discusses the historical context of the U.S. dollar's dominance in the international monetary system and the emerging trend of financial multipolarity, with the dollar's share in global official foreign exchange reserves declining from 66% in Q1 2015 to 57.8% by the end of 2024, a drop of 8.2 percentage points [6][12]. - The research highlights the significant events that have challenged the dollar's status, including various financial crises and the U.S. government's increasing fiscal deficits, which have accelerated the trend of de-dollarization [2][12]. Group 2: Methodology and Findings - The study employs a DCC-GARCH model to empirically explore the dynamic relationship between de-dollarization trends and U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, focusing on the response of emerging market currencies to the latest monetary policy cycle of the Federal Reserve [3][11]. - The analysis identifies four distinct phases of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy from January 2019 to May 2025, including periods of easing and tightening, and examines the varying impacts on the exchange rates of 18 selected emerging market currencies [7][10]. Group 3: Exchange Rate Responses - During the first phase of monetary easing, the U.S. dollar index appreciated by 8.37%, with significant gains against currencies from Brazil, Chile, and Colombia, while some currencies like the Egyptian pound depreciated [8][10]. - In the second phase of quantitative easing, the dollar index slightly declined by 0.89%, but the Turkish lira experienced a dramatic depreciation of 84.86%, indicating a divergence in currency responses [10][11]. - The third phase of monetary tightening saw the dollar index rise by 1.62%, with notable appreciation against several emerging market currencies, yet the overall impact did not lead to widespread currency crises as previously observed [10][11]. Group 4: Implications of De-dollarization - The article concludes that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has increasingly lost its influence over emerging market currencies, with countries like those in South America and Africa showing more vulnerability compared to Asian and European emerging markets, which have demonstrated stronger economic governance [11][18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is further supported by emerging market countries diversifying their reserves away from the dollar, reflecting a growing skepticism towards U.S. monetary policy and its associated risks [11][18].

从贸易大数据看关税冲击下的中国外需 20250708 摘要 中国出口展现韧性：尽管面临关税压力，中国年初以来出口增长强于多 数经济体，4-5 月仍实现增长，表明贸易动能切换，新兴市场占比上升， 发达经济体占比下降，新市场需求成核心支撑。 商品类别差异：关税对消费品冲击明显，中间品和资本品展现韧性，反 映中国在全球竞争优势。锂电池、新能源车、工程机械、集成电路等高 景气，光伏、建材、纺织品等受拖累，高景气商品在新兴和发达市场均 有需求。 对美出口影响：约 70%输美产品具关税弹性受冲击，10%受严重打击， 20%具韧性。消费品冲击大于中间品，消费电子压力大，电子元件及锂 电池具韧性。二季度输美价格走弱，数量下降，部分厂商以价换量。 主要品类下跌：二季度中国对美出口主要品类全线下跌，汽车链条、电 子元件、户外运动用品、钢铁制品和纺织服装等品类因价格竞争优势保 持韧性。 战略商品调整：一季度美国对中国稀土需求强劲，二季度中国实施防治 措施后，美国进口大幅回落。5 月中美贸易政策缓和，但 5 月出口仍下 行。战略商品出口可作为经贸关系指标。 Q&A 当前美国对华关税背景下，对中国不同类型产品出口有哪些具体影响？ 在当 ...

7月10日—12日，2025全球跨境电商交易博览会将在杭州大会展中心举行。本届博览会由浙江省商 务厅、杭州市人民政府支持，杭州市商务局发起，扩展集团、深圳市海圈科技有限公司、杭州日报、都 市快报、跨境百人会共同组织。这是中国（杭州）跨境电商综合试验区成立十周年的重要献礼，也是杭 州推动跨境电商高质量发展行动计划的重要实践。 直播出海专区联合8家头部MCN机构，分享欧美、东南亚市场的爆品孵化方法论。知识论坛专区设 置4大论坛、20个专场，邀请上百位行业嘉宾分享实战经验。政府服务专区首创"多位一体"政务咨询模 式，为企业提供关务、税务等一站式服务。"外贸优品 科技出海"专区则整合各类资源，助力企业拓展 海外市场。 据悉，展会期间将举办多场高规格论坛活动。6号馆将举行开幕式及国际供应链对接会；3号馆设有 跨境卖家增长论坛和全球平台大讲堂，帮助卖家实现从0到1的突破和从1到100的增长；4号馆举办产业 带出海论坛，聚焦电子汽配、家居户外等热门品类。 作为全国跨境展览会的风向标，本届博览会不仅展示杭州跨境电商发展的丰硕成果，更为中国企业 开拓海外市场搭建了重要平台。从产业带到人才，从直播到合规服务，这里将汇聚全球资源， ...

摩根大通将新兴市场货币评级由超配降至持平。 ...

每经记者｜董天意 实习生 张艺彤 每经编辑｜裴健如 据媒体报道，知情人士近日透露，雷诺汽车正在印度寻觅合作伙伴，已与JSW集团展开初步谈判，探讨 成立潜在合资企业的可能，以强化其在印度的市场地位。据悉，JSW集团的业务涵盖汽车、钢铁、能源 和基础设施领域。 点评：雷诺汽车与印度JSW集团探讨合资的消息，凸显跨国车企加速布局新兴市场的战略动向。该合作 若落地，将强化雷诺在印度本土化生产能力，借助JSW在钢铁、能源领域的资源优势，可能优化其供应 链成本结构。对印度汽车产业而言，外资与本土巨头的结合将进一步激活市场竞争格局，尤其在中低端 电动车细分领域或引发鲶鱼效应。亚洲新兴市场汽车供应链板块可能因此获得资本关注。 点评：四维图新与北汽新能源合作开发泊车软件，体现了智能驾驶技术在汽车产业中的深化应用。这一 合作有望提升四维图新在智驾领域的业务拓展，同时增强北汽新能源在智能泊车技术上的竞争力。 NO.2 中国电动车品牌到2030年或仅剩15家 知名咨询公司AlixPartners发布的最新研究报告显示，当前在中国市场销售电动汽车及插电式混合动力 汽车的129家品牌中，到2030年仅15家能实现财务可持续发展，因为残酷 ...

Core Insights - China's automobile exports have shown resilience and competitiveness, with a total export volume of 2.854 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, and an export value of $48.89 billion, up 5.3% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Export Performance - In the first five months, China's automobile exports to Asia reached 1.178 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39.1%, accounting for 41.3% of total exports [2] - Exports to Europe totaled 680,000 units, a decline of 17.6%, making up 23.8% of total exports [2] - Exports to Latin America were 613,000 units, increasing by 20.4%, representing 21.5% of total exports [2] Group 2: Key Markets - The top three countries for China's automobile exports by volume are Mexico (240,000 units, +16.8%), UAE (190,000 units, +64.2%), and Russia (153,000 units, -59.0%) [2] - In terms of export value, the UAE leads with $3.19 billion (up 68.9%), followed by Mexico at $2.95 billion (up 16.3%), and Belgium at $2.67 billion (down 19.1%) [2] Group 3: Emerging Markets - Exports to emerging markets reached 2.33 million units, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, with an export value of $38.08 billion, up 8.1% [3] - Significant growth was observed in exports to the UAE (+64.2%), Australia (+51.9%), Indonesia (+131.8%), and Kazakhstan (+86.9%) [3] - The shift in focus from reliance on a single market to a diversified approach is noted, with growth in Middle East, Southeast Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and Latin America [3] Group 4: Company Initiatives - Chinese automobile companies are actively expanding into new markets despite challenges in traditional markets like the EU [4] - BYD has launched models in Benin and Gabon, marking its entry into 17 African countries, aligning with local electric vehicle initiatives [4] - In South America, BYD introduced the Song PLUS in Brazil, tailored to local consumer preferences [5] - SAIC Group's IM LS7 SUV has been launched in Mexico, featuring advanced technology and design aimed at high-end markets [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The Chinese automobile industry is expected to continue expanding its global market share by introducing high-quality products and innovative experiences [6]

新兴市场外汇刷新日低，美国总统特朗普开始宣布关税，目前就宣布了针对日本和韩国的关税。 美元兑日元一度下跌1%，报144.23，随后收窄至不足0.9%。 ...

投资者上周向投资于新兴市场股票和债券的交易所交易基金（ ETF）投入资金。此类ETF连续第六周录 得资金流入。数据显示，截至7月3日当周，投资于发展中国家及特定国家的美国上市 新兴市场ETF总 计录得资金流入24.6亿美元，而前一周流入为33.5亿美元。今年迄今为止，流入总额已达129亿美元。 ...

印度流入规模次之，为4.719亿美元。越南资金流出最大，为414万美元。越南连续第二周位列流出规模 榜首，前一周流出544万美元。 彭博汇编数据显示，截至7月3日当周，投资于发展中国家及特定国家的美国上市新兴市场ETF总计录得 资金流入24.6亿美元，今年迄今流入总额已达129亿美元。中国资金流入最大，为5.418亿美元，以 iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets为首；中国前一周流入为6.993亿美元。 ...

核心观点 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 李星宇（18810112501） 6月全球大类资产总体表现为：全球股票（4.40%）>大宗商品（3.52%）>全球债券（1.89%）>人民币（0.49%）> 0%>美元（-2.47%）。 报告摘要 十张图速览全球资产脉络。 1、中东局势动荡下原油价格波动剧烈 。2025年6月，中东局势剧烈震荡，霍尔木兹海峡成为焦点，导致原油价格大幅上涨。霍尔木兹海峡位于伊朗与阿 曼之间，东接阿曼湾，西连波斯湾，是波斯湾石油通往印度洋的唯一出口，堪称全球能源贸易的咽喉。2024年全球石油及液体燃料消费量约1.027亿桶/ 日，其中74%通过海运，霍尔木兹海峡贸易量占全球消费量的20%、海运贸易的27%。然而，随着局势缓和，油价迅速回落，反映市场对供应中断担忧的 消退。 2、美股七巨头与2年期美债利率从同步转为背离 。2025年6月，美股七巨头与2年期美债利率走势从同步转为背离，如何理解这种变化？2025年1-5月，2 年期美债收益率下降被市场解读为经济衰退信号，投资者担忧经济增长放缓，导致美股七巨头随利率同步下跌 ...