Core Insights - Goldman Sachs report indicates a significant shift in China's economic reliance from developed markets to emerging markets and high-tech sectors [1][10] - China's GDP growth forecast for 2025 is adjusted from 4.9% to 5.0%, with subsequent years projected at 4.8% and 4.7% due to strong export performance [1][12] - The report highlights China's strategic move to establish manufacturing bases in Southeast Asia and Latin America to circumvent tariffs, showcasing resilience in its manufacturing sector [1][3] Export Dynamics - China's exports are increasingly driven by emerging markets, with trade along the Belt and Road Initiative nearing 50% of total trade [3][12] - The shift in product structure from low-end goods to high-tech items, particularly electric vehicles (EVs) and photovoltaics, is notable, with EV exports growing over 90% in early 2025 [3][12] - China now accounts for 40% of global EV exports, with the International Energy Agency predicting over 20 million global sales in 2025, largely driven by Chinese contributions [3][10] Economic Resilience - China's GDP growth for the first three quarters stands at 5.2%, with a third-quarter growth of 4.8%, reflecting a shift towards high-tech and equipment manufacturing [5][12] - The country is diversifying its import sources, as seen in its shift to Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, reducing dependency on U.S. agricultural products [3][5] - The report emphasizes that China is not isolating itself but rather expanding its global network, maintaining innovation and cooperation [5][12] Strategic Adjustments - China's output of comprehensive solutions, including payment systems and AI, is gaining traction in new markets, positioning the country as a leader in the global competition for new energy and market potential [7][10] - The financial market reflects this transformation, with international capital flowing into Chinese assets, indicating a growing confidence in China's economic prospects [7][13] - The report suggests that the restructuring of global economic dynamics is favoring China, as it moves from a peripheral player to a central role in the global value chain [8][13]

市场表现：上周发达市场表现更优。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 +0.0% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 +0.2% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 -1.5% 。债市方面，日本长端利率 上行，美国利率下行。大宗方面，银价涨幅居前，大豆跌幅较大。汇率方面，美元升，英镑平，日元贬，人民币升。上周中国股市必需消费、金融、能源材料 领涨，美股可选消费 + 科技更优。 报告导读： 上周发达市场表现更优，欧美股指成交大幅放量，港股卖空比例抬升、恒指波 幅继续下降。 资金面上，联储 26 年降息路径不明，日央行 12 月加息落地。基本面上， 上周港股盈利预期小幅上修，美股科技盈利预期持续上修。 重要提醒 交投情绪：上周欧美股指成交大幅放量。 从成交看，上周美股、欧股、韩股与日股成交走强，港股、 A 股成交走弱。从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比 下降、处历史偏低位，美股投资者情绪上升、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、欧股、美股波动率下降，日股波动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场整 体估值较前周上升、新兴市场整体估值均较前周下降。 盈利预期：上周港股盈利预期小幅上修，美股科技盈利预期继续上修。 横向对比来看，港股 2025 年盈利预 ...

机构普遍继续看好新兴市场资产2026年的走势。 截至2025年岁末，新兴市场债券和股票2025年均录得两位数比例的上涨。 美国银行近期对300位投资者进行的170场会议调查显示，华尔街几乎没有人对新兴市场持有悲观态度。 机构普遍继续看好新兴市场资产2026年的走势。 2025年新兴市场股债汇录得两位数涨幅 今年稍早，在特朗普政府宣布所谓"对等关税"后，投资者因多年回报疲弱以及对贸易战的担忧，在很长 一段时间内回避新兴市场资产。但如今，情况急剧逆转。 根据媒体汇编数据，新兴市场本币债券2025年至今上涨了18%，股票也整体上涨了26%。同时，自2017 年以来，新兴市场股票首次跑赢美国股票，新兴市场债券收益率与美国国债收益率利差收窄至11年来最 低水平。同时，衡量新兴市场外汇套利交易策略的彭博新兴市场套利指数（Emerging Market Carry Index）今年至今的投资回报率高达16.71%，也取得了自2009年以来的最佳投资回报。 同时，新兴市场在全球股票和债券基准指数中的份额也正在上升。在彭博全球大中型股指数中，新兴市 场股票的权重相对于发达市场提高了一个多百分点，接近13%，而新兴市场债券在彭博 ...

（来源：劳动报） 转自：劳动报 出口动能的升级亦十分明显。前11个月，上海市机电产品出口1.19万亿元，增长6.3%，占全市出口总值65.4%。"新三样"产品出口势头强劲，合计出口 1443.2亿元，增长16.5%，其中混动汽车出口257.2亿元，大幅增长174.8%。绿色低碳趋势也带动相关装备出口，液货船出口342.4亿元，增长130.5%。此外， 劳动密集型产品出口1808.6亿元，保持2.9%的稳定增长。 进口方面，高新技术产品与生产原料的增长反映出产业活力持续释放。前11个月，上海市进口高新技术产品7372.1亿元，增长6.3%，其中半导体制造设备、 电脑及其零部件、飞机进口分别增长35.4%、24%与74.3%。金属矿及矿砂、未锻轧铜及铜材等生产原料进口也分别增长11.5%和14%。消费品进口同样表现 活跃，水果、乳品进口分别增长17.8%和14.2%，玩具、游艺运动设备进口增长均超15%。 随着出口动能不断增强、市场布局持续优化，上海外贸在结构升级与规模扩张中展现出稳步向好的发展态势。 头图来源：图虫 据上海海关统计，今年前11个月，上海市外贸持续释放增长活力——进出口总值达4.1万亿元，同比增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Transsion Holdings, known as the "King of Africa" in the mobile industry, has submitted an H-share listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to diversify its financing channels and support its strategic transformation into a smart ecosystem service provider, covering mobile internet services, energy storage, and electric mobility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Position and Financial Performance - Transsion has established a dominant position in emerging markets, particularly in Africa, where it holds a market share of 61.5%, and is the largest smartphone provider in emerging markets with a share of 24.1% as of 2024 [1][2]. - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from RMB 465.96 billion in 2022 to RMB 687.15 billion in 2024, with net profit increasing from RMB 24.67 billion to RMB 55.97 billion during the same period [2]. - However, in the first half of 2025, the company experienced a revenue decline from RMB 346 billion in 2024 to RMB 291 billion, with a drop in gross margin from 20.8% to 19.0%, attributed to smartphone product release cycles and intensified competition in emerging markets [2]. Group 2: Strategic Transformation and Future Growth - The long-term growth strategy of Transsion is to transition from hardware sales to building a smart ecosystem driven by mobile internet services and diversified IoT products [2][5]. - The company aims to leverage its large user base to drive high-growth services and products, with over 270 million average monthly active users as of June 30, 2025, and a focus on mobile internet services that have a gross margin of 78.0% [5][6]. - Transsion is also expanding into energy storage and light electric mobility, launching brands like itel Energy and DYQUE Energy to address power supply issues in Africa, and introducing electric mobility solutions for both personal and commercial users [6][7]. Group 3: Market Opportunities and Projections - Emerging markets are expected to be the main growth driver for the global smartphone market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.7% from 2024 to 2029, surpassing the global market's expected 4.6% [3][5]. - The market sizes for mobile internet services, IoT products, energy storage, and light electric mobility are projected to grow significantly, with CAGRs of 26.9%, 19.4%, 16.4%, and 15.6% respectively from 2024 to 2029 [6][7]. - To support its ecosystem transformation and maintain technological leadership, Transsion plans to use funds from the H-share listing to enhance AI capabilities and upgrade its operating system [6].

报告来源 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 核心-卫星框架下的EM主权债投资——可落地的2026海外债策略债券年报；报告日期： 2025.12.19 报告作者： 王一凡（分析师），登记编号：S0880524120001 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 2026年海外债市将呈现"温和宽松周期中的利率下移与信用分化"格局，新兴市场主权债迎来重要配置窗口。 全球央行进入分化宽松周期，发达经济体增长动 能放缓，而新兴市场在供应链重塑与制造业外溢推动下维持5-7%的中高速增长，成为全球增长的主要贡献力量。通胀方面，新兴市场整体通胀从5.2%降至 4.0%-4.3%，回落幅度快于发达经济体，为货币政策宽松创造空间。美元指数经历15年强势周期后处于顶部区域， ...

智通财经APP获悉，2025年，新兴市场无视关税、贸易战和全球动荡，取得了两位数的亮眼回报，投资 者正期望明年能够再次取得同样的成绩。 多年来，新兴市场各国政府和央行做出了艰难的政策选择，这使得曾经风险较高的新兴市场资产在美国 和欧洲的政治经济阴云以及日益加剧的地缘政治分裂面前显得稳固。 Manulife Investment Management董事总经理Elina Theodorakopoulou表示："今年有很多利好因素可以延 续到明年，尤其是考虑到今年的表现有多么出色和辉煌。"Theodorakopoulou强调了"良好的政策和好运 的结合"。 新的避险天堂? 投资者表示，尽管美联储受到抨击，但新兴市场央行展现出了独立性和稳健的政策制定能力。 M&G新兴市场债务主管Charles de Quinsonas表示："就货币政策而言，新兴市场的信誉度可能达到了前 所未有的高度。实际上，他们甚至比美联储更早降息，但他们并没有过度降息，这有助于货币保持相当 强的韧性。" 审慎的货币政策帮助新兴市场货币跑赢大盘，而美元则持续疲软。这极大地激发了投资者对新兴市场本 币债券的兴趣，今年以来，这类债券的回报率约为18% ...

Core Insights - Dongguan's foreign trade import and export value reached 1.44 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, marking a historical high for the same period and ranking fifth nationally, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [1] - The city's export value was 878.95 billion yuan, growing by 8.7%, while import value was 557.24 billion yuan, increasing by 24.3% [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises in Dongguan increased by 15.6% year-on-year to 27,000, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [1] - Private enterprises contributed 900 billion yuan to foreign trade, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.9% [1] Trade Dynamics - Dongguan regained its position as the "fifth largest foreign trade city" in China, overtaking Ningbo with a growth rate of 16.5% [1] - Emerging markets are a significant driver of Dongguan's foreign trade growth, with trade with 54 countries and regions increasing by over 50% [1] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries grew by 24.3%, accounting for 30% of total trade, while trade with ASEAN countries surged by 36.8% [1] Industrial Competitiveness - Dongguan is enhancing its industrial competitiveness by upgrading towards high-tech and high-value-added sectors, with electromechanical product exports reaching 617.42 billion yuan, a growth of 12.3% [2] - Exports of integrated circuits, electrical equipment, computers and components, and mobile phones saw significant growth rates of 20.1%, 20.6%, 18.4%, and 6.9% respectively [2] - The foreign trade dependence ratio has decreased to 113%, down from over 400%, yet remains the highest among major cities in China [2] Economic Goals - Dongguan aims for an average annual economic growth rate of around 5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan, targeting a GDP exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan by 2030 [3] - The city plans to enhance foreign trade quality and efficiency by expanding overseas warehouse layouts and establishing more overseas exhibition centers [3] - There is a focus on tapping into domestic market potential and activating consumption to adapt to changing international conditions [3]

Core Insights - Xinjiang's foreign trade import and export value for the first 11 months of this year reached 459.19 billion yuan, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.1% [1] Group 1: Trade Growth - Significant growth in foreign trade with emerging markets, with exports to ASEAN, Africa, West Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America increasing by 74.1%, 124.7%, 82.3%, 81.9%, and 68.3% respectively [1] - General trade mode saw a year-on-year increase of 61.5% in imports and exports [1] - In November, general trade mode imports and exports grew by 26.5%, with cross-border e-commerce exports increasing by 20.5% year-on-year and 97.4% month-on-month [1] Group 2: Foreign Investment and Enterprises - The number of foreign trade enterprises in Xinjiang reached 4,215, with foreign-invested enterprises experiencing a year-on-year growth of 21.8% in imports and exports [1] - All regions in Xinjiang reported growth in imports and exports, with Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, Kashgar Region, Urumqi City, and Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture accounting for 78.6% of the total foreign trade value [1]

Core Insights - Dongguan's foreign trade import and export value reached 1.44 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, marking a historical high for the same period and ranking fifth nationally, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [1] - The city's export value was 878.95 billion yuan, growing by 8.7%, while import value was 557.24 billion yuan, increasing by 24.3% [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises in Dongguan reached 27,000, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [1] - Private enterprises contributed 900 billion yuan to the import and export value, a growth of 20.9% [1] Trade Dynamics - Dongguan's foreign trade growth is significantly driven by emerging markets, with trade with 54 countries and regions increasing by over 50% year-on-year [1] - Trade with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative grew by 24.3%, accounting for 30% of total trade [1] - Trade with ASEAN countries saw a remarkable increase of 36.8% [1] Industry Competitiveness - Dongguan is enhancing its industrial competitiveness by upgrading towards high-tech and high-value-added sectors, with electromechanical products exports reaching 617.42 billion yuan, a growth of 12.3% [2] - Electromechanical products accounted for 70.2% of Dongguan's total export value, with significant growth in integrated circuits (20.1%), electrical equipment (20.6%), computers and components (18.4%), and mobile phones (6.9%) [2] Economic Goals - Dongguan aims to maintain an average annual economic growth rate of around 5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, targeting a GDP exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan by 2030 [6] - The city plans to enhance foreign trade quality and efficiency by expanding overseas warehouse layouts and establishing more overseas exhibition centers [6] - Dongguan is also focusing on tapping into domestic market potential and increasing effective investment to stimulate consumption [6]