1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭价格反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-12-23 品种晨会纪要 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：受困于国内甲醇供应压力不断增大，同时面对国内煤炭期货价格大幅回调的拖累，甲醇 期货反弹受阻，转而重新陷入回调走势。目前港口库存和内陆地区库存小幅回落，但依然处于高位。 同时下游需求改善不足，烯烃盘面利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: Downstream demand has limited space, and the valuation is high [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: The macro sentiment resonates with the fundamentals, and the prices are firm [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon: The sector resonates with the fundamentals, and the trend is oscillating and slightly strong [2][10]. - Silicomanganese: The long and short sentiments are intertwined and in a game, and the trend is widely oscillating [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal: Both show wide - range oscillations [2][13]. - Logs: The price is oscillating at a low level [2][17]. 3. Summary by Product Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 777.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan or 1.24%. The import and some domestic ore prices increased slightly. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4]. - **News**: From January to November, national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%, with residential investment down 15.0% [4]. - **Trend strength**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,125 yuan/ton and 3,277 yuan/ton, up 1.40% and 1.05% respectively. Spot prices in various regions increased slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [6]. - **News**: On December 18, in terms of weekly data, rebar production increased by 2.9 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 16.8 tons; rebar inventory decreased by 26.96 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 6.37 tons; rebar apparent demand increased by 5.55 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 13.69 tons. In early December 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily output of crude steel increased by 2.8%, pig iron decreased by 3.4%, and steel decreased by 12.1%. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [7][8]. - **Trend strength**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 50 yuan/ton, while silicomanganese remained stable. The basis and spreads changed [10]. - **News**: On December 18, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions changed. Some silicon - iron plants had production adjustments. UMK and NMT increased the manganese ore quotation for January 2026 [11][12]. - **Trend strength**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [12]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased by 4.7% and 4.8% respectively. Spot prices of coking coal were mostly stable, and some coke prices increased. The basis and spreads changed [13]. - **News**: From January to November, national real - estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year [14]. - **Trend strength**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts showed different changes. Spot prices of various log types in Shandong and Jiangsu markets were mostly stable [18]. - **News**: From January to November, national real - estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year [20]. - **Trend strength**: 0 [20].

| 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年12月17日 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 17 日 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 1.06% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 761.0 | 8.0 | | | | I2605 | | | 昨日持仓（手） | 持仓变动（手） | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including market trends, fundamental data, and trading suggestions for each product [2]. - It emphasizes the importance of considering factors such as supply - demand balance, cost, and market sentiment when making investment decisions in the futures market. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Trends**: PX is in a high - level volatile market with seasonal weakening demand but tight supply; PTA is in a high - level volatile market; MEG has short - term support below due to unplanned production cuts improving inventory accumulation pressure [2][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6784, up 0.38%; PTA主力4696, up 0.47%; MEG主力3651, up 0.66%. PX CFR China was at 832.67 dollars/ton yesterday, up 2 dollars compared to the previous day [5]. - **Suggestions**: For PX, avoid chasing high prices and operate in the range of 6550 - 7000. Exit the 5 - 9 positive spread and the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA/BZ. For PTA, operate in the range of 4500 - 4800 and take similar exit actions. For MEG, do not chase short on the 01 contract [11][12]. 3.2 Rubber - **Market Trends**: Rubber is in a volatile operation [2][14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The rubber主力05合约日盘收盘价 was 15,200 yuan/ton yesterday, down 30 yuan; the night - time closing price was 15,230 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The trading volume increased by 117,063 hands [14]. - **Industry News**: As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 49.89 million tons, a 2.08% increase from the previous period [15]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Trends**: The oscillation center of synthetic rubber is moving up [2][17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber主力02 contract was 10,720 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,953 hands [17]. - **Industry News**: As of December 10, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 32,000 tons, a 1.18% decrease from the previous period. The butadiene inventory in East China ports decreased by 5,200 tons [18][20]. 3.4 LLDPE - **Market Trends**: The upside space of LLDPE is limited, and the basis has weakened again [2][21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of L2601 was 6557, up 1.09%. The 01 - contract basis was - 57, compared to 4 the previous day [21]. - **Market Situation**: The raw material crude oil price is oscillating, the monomer segment is weakly stable, and the downstream demand is weakening. The supply pressure in the medium - term needs attention [22]. 3.5 PP - **Market Trends**: The trading volume of PP has improved periodically, but the basis is still weak [2][23]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PP2601 was 6254, up 2.04%. The 01 - contract basis was - 154, compared to - 49 the previous day [23]. - **Market Situation**: The cost - end support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing capacity is intensifying, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - **Market Trends**: Caustic soda still faces pressure in the later stage [26]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of the 01 contract was 2163, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 710, and the basis was 56 [27]. - **Market Situation**: Although the futures price rebounded on Friday night, the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. The demand is weak, and there is pressure to reduce inventory by lowering prices before the Spring Festival [28]. 3.7 Pulp - **Market Trends**: Pulp is in a wide - range volatile state [2][31]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the pulp主力05 contract was 5572 yuan/ton yesterday, up 38 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 67,332 hands [33]. - **Industry News**: The futures market was narrowly volatile, the spot price was stable, and the actual market transactions were limited. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak [34]. 3.8 Glass - **Market Trends**: The price of glass raw sheets is stable [2][38]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of FG601 was 950, up 0.11%. The 01 - contract basis was 120, compared to 135 the previous day [37]. - **Market Situation**: The price of float glass fluctuated, and the trading atmosphere in most regions was average. The impact of snowfall in the north affected shipments [37]. 3.9 Methanol - **Market Trends**: Methanol is in short - term volatile operation [2][39]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the methanol主力05 contract was 2124 yuan/ton yesterday, up 57 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 354,221 hands [40]. - **Market Situation**: The methanol port inventory has been decreasing, and the short - term fundamentals have improved. The macro - environment provides some support [42]. 3.10 Urea - **Market Trends**: Urea is under oscillating pressure [2][44]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the urea主力01 contract was 1629 yuan/ton yesterday, up 4 yuan. The trading volume increased by 28,598 hands [45]. - **Market Situation**: The short - term driving force is neutral, the spot trading has weakened, and the futures price is expected to be under oscillating pressure. The fundamentals have improved, but the driving force needs further observation [46][47]. 3.11 Styrene - **Market Trends**: Styrene is in short - term oscillation [2][48]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of styrene2512 was 6491, down 9; styrene2601 was 6442, down 63 [48]. - **Market Situation**: The pure benzene market is oscillating, the downstream of styrene is in a high - inventory and medium - profit pattern, and the overall supply pressure is not large [49]. 3.12 Soda Ash - **Market Trends**: The spot market of soda ash has little change [2][51]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of SA2601 was 1123, up 1.63%. The 01 - contract basis was 77, compared to 107 the previous day [52]. - **Market Situation**: The production of soda ash enterprises is stable, the downstream demand is flat, and the procurement enthusiasm is not high [52]. 3.13 LPG and Propylene - **Market Trends**: LPG is in short - term oscillation with a downward trend; propylene is in short - term narrow - range adjustment [2][55][56]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PG2601 was 4181, up 2.73%; PL2601 was 5949, down 0.20% [56]. - **Market Situation**: The price of CP paper goods decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [61][62]. 3.14 PVC - **Market Trends**: PVC is in low - level oscillation [2][66]. - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of the 01 contract was 4315, the spot price in East China was 4330, and the basis was 15 [64]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price of PVC increased slightly. Although the futures price rebounded, the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [64][65]. 3.15 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Trends**: The short - term trend of fuel oil has weakened, and the short - term volatility has increased; a retracement has occurred in low - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has narrowed [2][67]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of FU2601 was 2417 yuan/ton, up 2.07%; LU2601 was 2988 yuan/ton, up 0.64% [67]. - **Market Situation**: The trading volume and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts have changed, and the price spreads have also fluctuated [67]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Trends**: The container shipping index (European line) is in an oscillating market [2][69]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of EC2512 was 1649.8, down 0.09%; EC2602 was 1746.0, up 3.30% [69]. - **Market Situation**: The freight rates of European and US - West routes have changed, and the shipping prices of different carriers vary [69]. 3.17 Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Market Trends**: Short - fiber and bottle chips are in short - term low - level oscillation with medium - term pressure [2][78]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of short - fiber2601 was 6110, up 22; bottle chips2601 was 5552, up 22 [78]. - **Market Situation**: The short - fiber futures rose and then fell, and the sales improved; the price of bottle chips factories was mostly stable, and the market transactions were average [78][79]. 3.18 Offset Printing Paper - **Market Trends**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for offset printing paper [2][81]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of OP2602.SHF was 3994, and the 2 - 3 spread was - 16 [81]. - **Market Situation**: The price of double - offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets was stable, the market demand was weak, and the trading atmosphere was general [82][84]. 3.19 Pure Benzene - **Market Trends**: Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation [2][86]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of BZ2603 was 5448, up 28. The pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 260,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day [86]. - **Market Situation**: The pure benzene inventory in ports has increased, the trading volume in Shandong has decreased, and the price has declined slightly [87].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 15 日 LPG：短期震荡，趋势承压 丙烯：短期窄幅调整 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LPG 基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG2601 | 4,070 | -3.55% | 4,154 | 2.06% | | 期货价格 | PG2602 | 3,986 | -3.79% | 4,037 | 1.28% | | | PL2601 | 5,961 | 0.18% | 6,004 | 0.72% | | | PL2602 | 5,730 | -0.95% | 5,821 | 1.59% | | | PL2603 | 5,675 | -1.29% | 5,772 | 1.71% | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | | PG2601 | 96,238 | 39211 | 34,725 | -6179 | | 持仓&成交 | P ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to show a weak and volatile trend, with a weak supply - demand pattern leading to a high - level decline in ore prices [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, while the intraday trend is weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile due to the poor supply - demand pattern [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak. At the end of the year, steel mills' maintenance increases, leading to a continuous decline in ore terminal consumption. With the poor profit situation, the weak demand pattern is hard to change, putting pressure on ore prices. Meanwhile, domestic port arrivals decline, overseas miners' shipments increase, and both are at relatively high levels within the year. Although domestic ore supply is shrinking, there is still supply pressure. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the iron ore market fundamentals are weak, and ore prices continue to be under pressure to run weakly [3]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 12 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 偏空氛围主导，焦煤弱势运行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空因素交织，焦炭偏弱震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震 ...

2025年12月07日 国泰君安期货研究周报 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 观点与策略 | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 2 | | 工业硅：新疆环保消息发酵，关注实际减产 | 11 | | 多晶硅：预计下周盘面波动放大 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：现实环比走弱叠加预期充分计价，锂价上方承压 | 20 | | 棕榈油：短期技术反弹，等待产量拐点确认 | 28 | | 豆油：美豆驱动有限，区间震荡运行 | 28 | | 豆粕：若无意外利多，盘面偏弱 | 34 | | 豆一：现货偏强，盘面偏弱 | 34 | | 玉米：或有回调 | 39 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 45 | | 棉花：涨势放缓 | 52 | | 生猪：弱势难改，基差逻辑回归 | 59 | | 花生：关注现货 | 65 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 07 日 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 张再宇 投资咨询从业资 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 1, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series - Report Focus: Analysis of the futures market for black series commodities, including iron ore, steel products, ferroalloys, coke, coking coal, and logs Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Iron ore has limited downstream demand space and high valuation [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to trade in a low range [2][6] - Ferrosilicon is subject to market sentiment and is expected to trade in a low range; ferromanganese silicon has firm ore prices and is also expected to trade in a low range [2][10] - Coke and coking coal are expected to trade in a wide range [2][16] - Logs are expected to trade weakly [2][18] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 794.0 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan or 0.69%. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest decreased by 23,368 lots. Spot prices for most imported ores declined, while domestic ores remained stable. The basis for some contracts increased [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business sentiment [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar futures (RB2601) closed at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 0.71%, with a decrease in trading volume and open interest. Hot-rolled coil futures (HC2601) closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.27%, also with a decrease in trading volume and open interest. Spot prices showed mixed changes, and some basis and spreads changed [6] - **Macro and Industry News**: In the week of November 27, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data showed various trends for different products [6] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils, indicating a neutral outlook Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon remained stable, while some prices for manganese ore increased. Various price spreads changed, including basis, near-far month spreads, and cross-variety spreads [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were changes in production, inventory, and procurement prices in the ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon markets in November [12][15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon, indicating a neutral outlook Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices for coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased. Spot prices for most coking coal and coke remained stable, and some basis and spreads changed [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business sentiment [16] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a neutral outlook Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices for different log contracts showed various trends in terms of closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests. Spot-futures spreads also changed [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Customs总署 decided to lift the suspension of importing US logs from November 10, 2025 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook

【市场状况分析】 PVC 期货跌至历史低位水平，且绝对估值处于低位，部分装置因亏损幅度较大，存在减产预期，因此短 期不宜追空。不过冬季仍是氯碱企业检修淡季，即使存在新增检修，其规模或有限，对 03 合约之前的期货 合约而言，仍然面临高开工、弱需求的格局。博弈大规模减产预期或在 03 合约之后。此外，PVC 仓单仍处 于高位，未来多头接货压力大。 整体看，PVC 市场高产量、高库存结构短期难改变，但考虑烧碱利润也持续下滑，氯碱综合利润处于历 史低位水平，明年或可期待供应端在检修旺季的减产力度。 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 28 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PVC 基本面数据 01合约期货价格 华东现货价格 基差 1-5月差 4517 4450 -67 -281 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 【现货消息】 国内 PVC 现货市场销售僵持，电石法销售报价维持坚挺，盘中上涨阻力较大，乙烯法部分区域销售畅 通，市场竞争压力增加，华东地区电石法五型现汇库提在 4420-4520 元/吨，乙烯法在 4500-4600 元/吨 ...