期货研究

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纯苯:短期偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 01:52
Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene industry is short - term bullish [1] 2) Core View - The pure benzene market shows a short - term upward trend with price increases and changes in inventory levels [1][2] 3) Summary by Related Content Fundamentals Tracking - Futures prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, and BZ2605 increased by 44, 77, and 34 respectively compared to the previous day [1] - The price differences between different futures contracts and between pure benzene and other products changed, such as BZ2603 - BZ2604 decreased by 33 and BZ2603 - EB2508 decreased by 310 [1] - Paper - cargo prices of N + 1 and N + 2 increased by 35 and 30 respectively [1] - Shandong pure benzene price rose by 35 to 6005 yuan/ton, and the price differences between Shandong pure benzene and other types of benzene also increased [1] - Pure benzene inventory in East China ports decreased by 10,000 tons to 134,000 tons, while styrene inventory in East China ports increased by 6760 tons to 133,690 tons [1] News - As of September 15, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 10,000 tons (6.94% MoM) to 134,000 tons, and increased by 84,000 tons (168% YoY) compared to last year [2] - From September 8 - 14, the estimated arrival was about 18,000 tons and the estimated pick - up was about 28,000 tons [2] - As of September 15, 2025, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased by 17,500 tons (9.92%) to 159,000 tons, and the commercial inventory decreased by 9000 tons (10.34%) to 78,000 tons [2] - On September 15, the non - long - term contract trading volume of Shandong pure benzene was about 1700 tons, with a self - pick - up price range of 6000 - 6010 yuan/ton and an average price of 6005 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous day [2] - Spot prices of pure benzene in East China increased, with different price increases for different trading periods [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of pure benzene is 0, indicating a neutral trend within the [- 2,2] range [2]
LPG:短期窄幅偏强震荡,丙烯:短期高位偏弱运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 01:56
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - LPG is expected to experience a short - term narrow - range and slightly stronger oscillation [1]. - Propylene is likely to operate at a high level with a weakening trend in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,449 yesterday with a - 0.47% daily increase and 4,505 in the night session with a 1.26% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,400 yesterday with a - 0.54% daily increase and 4,449 in the night session with a 1.11% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,420 yesterday with a 0.17% daily increase and 6,426 in the night session with a 0.09% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,440 yesterday with a - 0.03% daily increase and 6,449 in the night session with a 0.14% increase [2]. - **LPG Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For PG2510, yesterday's trading volume was 52,056 (a decrease of 6,755 from the previous day), and open interest was 61,188 (a decrease of 6,172 from the previous day); for PG2511, trading volume was 20,151 (a decrease of 3,417 from the previous day), and open interest was 50,813 (an increase of 2,043 from the previous day); for PL2601, trading volume was 3,192 (a decrease of 53 from the previous day), and open interest was 11,270 (an increase of 491 from the previous day); for PL2602, trading volume was 96 (an increase of 43 from the previous day), and open interest was 888 (an increase of 2 from the previous day) [2]. - **LPG Price Spreads**: The spread of Guangzhou domestic gas to the PG10 contract was 31 yesterday (30 the day before); the spread of Guangzhou imported gas to the PG10 contract was 101 yesterday (60 the day before); the spread of Shandong propylene to the PL01 contract was 280 yesterday (291 the day before); the spread of East China propylene to the PL01 contract was 155 yesterday (191 the day before); the spread of South China propylene to the PL01 contract was 55 yesterday (66 the day before) [2]. - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 70.5% (73.1% last week); the MTBE operating rate was 61.7% (62.2% previously); the alkylation operating rate was 43.4% (46.8% previously) [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Cargo Prices**: On September 12, 2025, the October CP paper cargo price for propane was 546 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 521 dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The November CP paper cargo price for propane was 557 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [7]. - **Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH plant maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Materials Technology Co., Ltd. (starting on May 12, 2023, end time undetermined), Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. (starting in late November 2023, end time undetermined), etc. [8]. - **Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises have LPG plant maintenance plans, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical (starting on May 14, 2024, end time in late September 2025), Huaxing Petrochemical (starting on October 22, 2024, end time in November 2025), etc. [9].
鸡蛋:博弈延续
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 02:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View - There is no explicit core view presented in the report, mainly focusing on the fundamental data tracking of eggs. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2510 is 3,043 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a trading volume decrease of 53,681, and an open - interest decrease of 54,902; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,349 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decrease of 0.71%, a trading volume increase of 4,549, and an open - interest increase of 4,652 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg10 - 12 spread is - 126 (previous day: - 153), and the egg10 - 1 spread is - 306 (previous day: - 334) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.30 yuan/jin, 3.11 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin (previous day: 3.40 yuan/jin), and 3.69 yuan/jin respectively [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The corn spot price is 2,317 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,328 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 3,030 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 13.53 yuan/kg (previous day: 13.58 yuan/kg) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].
棕榈油:基本面驱动不足,短期回调,豆油,美豆油政策飘摇,豆油题材有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 02:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil has insufficient fundamental drivers and may experience a short - term correction [1] - US soybean oil policy is unstable, and there are limited themes for soybean oil [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,244 yuan/ton, down 2.55%; closing price (night session) was 9,302 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. Yesterday's trading volume was 859,709 lots, an increase of 280,680 lots, and the position was 444,900 lots, a decrease of 6,616 lots [1] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,256 yuan/ton, down 1.81%; closing price (night session) was 8,290 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. Yesterday's trading volume was 448,885 lots, an increase of 210,870 lots, and the position was 611,919 lots, a decrease of 19,824 lots [1] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,770 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; closing price (night session) was 9,835 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. Yesterday's trading volume was 284,089 lots, an increase of 21,996 lots, and the position was 255,147 lots, a decrease of 12,867 lots [1] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 4,413 ringgit/ton, down 1.52%; closing price (night session) was 4,420 ringgit/ton, up 0.16% [1] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 50.98 cents/pound, up 0.99% [1] 3.1.2 Spot - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [1] - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price was 8,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [1] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price was 9,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): Spot price was 1,115 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] 3.1.3 Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was 26 yuan/ton [1] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 404 yuan/ton [1] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.4 Spread - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 526 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 365 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 988 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with - 1,078 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread: 202 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with - 6 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1] - Soybean oil 9 - 1 spread: 6 yuan/ton (previous trading day), compared with 46 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1] - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread: N/A (previous trading day), compared with 129 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOB: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August was 2,202,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.18%. Production was 1,855,008 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%. Exports were 1,324,672 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.29%. Imports were 49,036 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.66% [2] - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 were 415,030 tons, a decrease of 8.43% compared with the same period last month [3] - ITS: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 10 were 476,610 tons, a decrease of 1.2% compared with the same period last month [5] - The White House is reviewing a plan that requires large refineries to bear part of the reduced biofuel blending volume due to small refinery exemptions. The plan requires large refineries to compensate for 50% or less of the exempted biofuel volume [5] - The EU has recognized the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil Certification (MSPO) as a reliable standard [5] - Argentina's Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares compared with the previous year [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0; soybean oil trend intensity: 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]
短纤:短期反弹瓶片:短期反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-08 02:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short fiber: Short-term rebound [1] - Bottle chip: Short-term rebound [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Short fiber futures rebounded after following the decline of raw materials. Most factory quotes for short fiber spot remained unchanged, and transactions were negotiated on a case-by-case basis. The sales of direct-spun polyester staple fibers were light, with an average production and sales rate of 38% as of around 3:00 pm [1]. - Polyester bottle chip factories continued to slightly lower their export quotes. The negotiation range of mainstream bottle chip factories in East China was between 765 - 785 US dollars/ton FOB Shanghai Port, and that in South China was between 760 - 770 US dollars/ton FOB main ports, with overall discounts negotiated based on quantity [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking Short Fiber - Futures prices: Short fiber 2509 was 6250 (down 4 from the previous day), short fiber 2510 was 6348 (up 6), short fiber 2511 was 6334 (down 76) [1]. - Spread: PF09 - 10 was -98 (down 10), PF10 - 11 was 14 (up 82), PF basis was 87 (down 21) [1]. - Position and volume: The short fiber main contract's open interest was 168,093 (up 21,285), and the trading volume was 150,977 (up 20,764) [1]. - Spot price and production - sales rate: The short fiber spot price in East China was 6,435 (down 15), and the production - sales rate was 39% (down 6%) [1]. Bottle Chip - Futures prices: Bottle chip 2509 was 5694 (down 58), bottle chip 2510 was 5842 (up 16), bottle chip 2511 was 5840 (up 20) [1]. - Spread: PR09 - 10 was -148 (down 74), PR10 - 11 was 2 (down 4), PR main contract basis was -22 (up 14) [1]. - Position and volume: The bottle chip main contract's open interest was 37,165 (up 1,278), and the trading volume was 38,013 (down 64,262) [1]. - Spot price: The bottle chip spot price in East China was 5820 (up 30), and in South China was 5880 (up 20) [1]. 3.2 Spot News - Short fiber: Short fiber futures rebounded after following the decline of raw materials. Factory quotes mostly remained unchanged, and sales were light with an average production - sales rate of 38% [1]. - Bottle chip: Polyester bottle chip factories continued to slightly lower their export quotes, with different negotiation ranges in East and South China [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Short fiber trend intensity: 1 [3] - Bottle chip trend intensity: 1 (only referring to the daily - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day) [3]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250903
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 02:24
Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are likely to have an oscillatory correction because of the rapid inventory accumulation [2][7][8]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are predicted to have wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to show wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Logs are likely to have repeated oscillations [2][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 771.5 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan or 0.72%. The positions decreased by 948 hands. Among the spot prices, imported ore prices generally increased, while domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3047 yuan/ton and 3310 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.49% and 0.48%. The trading volumes, positions and their changes, spot prices, basis and spreads all had corresponding data [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, and the export average price was 702.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.2%. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 6798.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.0%, and the export average price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. According to the weekly data on August 28, the production, inventory and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil had different changes. In mid - August 2025, the production and inventory data of key steel enterprises also changed [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of silicon iron and manganese silicon all had specific data [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 2, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions and the procurement prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon by some steel mills were reported [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of coke and coking coal all had corresponding data [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 1 [15]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of different futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of logs all had specific data, and the price changes of different types of logs in different regions were also reported [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [20].
燃料油:窄幅震荡,弱势仍在,低硫燃料油,夜盘高开,外盘现货高低硫价差
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:59
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Fuel oil is in a narrow - range shock with a continued weak trend, while low - sulfur fuel oil opened higher at night, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continued to decline [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Price and Change**: - FU2510 closed at 2,832 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day, and its settlement price was 2,820 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [1]. - FU2511 closed at 2,837 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and its settlement price was 2,822 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - LU2510 closed at 3,456 yuan/ton, down 1.20%, and its settlement price was 3,458 yuan/ton, down 0.72% [1]. - LU2511 closed at 3,474 yuan/ton, down 0.72%, and its settlement price was 3,471 yuan/ton, down 0.57% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of FU2510 was 225,716, a decrease of 2,649, and the open interest was 57,599, a decrease of 10,713 [1]. - The trading volume of FU2511 was 68,717, an increase of 2,616, and the open interest was 38,165, an increase of 423 [1]. - The trading volume of LU2510 was 4,853, a decrease of 2,128, and the open interest was 12,351, a decrease of 464 [1]. - The trading volume of LU2511 was 98,818, an increase of 11,304, and the open interest was 70,209, an increase of 2,022 [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: - The warehouse receipts of the whole fuel - oil market (FU) were 119,580, with no change, and the warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) were 35,110, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - Singapore MOPS: High - sulfur (3.5%S) was 398.6 US dollars/ton, down 0.56%; low - sulfur (0.5%S) was 485.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.54% [1]. - Singapore Bunker: High - sulfur was 411.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.48%; low - sulfur was 499.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.40% [1]. - High - Chayla Bunker: High - sulfur was 394.0 US dollars/ton, unchanged; low - sulfur was 502.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.59% [1]. - Zhoushan Bunker: High - sulfur was 425.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.93%; low - sulfur was 518.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.77% [1]. - Shanghai Bunker: High - sulfur was 425.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.93%; low - sulfur was 518.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.77% [1]. - Tokyo Bunker: High - sulfur was 452.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.88%; low - sulfur was 522.0 US dollars/ton, down 0.57% [1]. - South Korea Bunker: High - sulfur was 441.0 US dollars/ton, up 0.23%; low - sulfur was 556.3 US dollars/ton, up 3.39% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - FU10 - 11 settlement spread was - 2 yuan/ton [1]. - LU10 - 11 settlement spread was - 13 yuan/ton [1]. - LU10 - FU10 settlement spread was 638 yuan/ton, with a difference of 14 yuan [1]. - FU2510 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) spread was - 11.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.9 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - LU2510 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) spread was - 7.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23.1 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) spread was 86.9 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.4 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of fuel oil is 0, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is also 0, indicating a neutral trend [1].
LPG:供需维持宽松,关注成本变动,丙烯:现货价格支撑仍在,关注回落风险
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 04:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of LPG remains loose, and attention should be paid to cost changes [1] - The spot price of propylene still has support, but attention should be paid to the risk of decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,392 yesterday with a - 0.43% daily increase, and 4,426 in the night session with a 0.77% increase; PG2511 closed at 4,308 yesterday with a - 0.37% daily increase, and 4,344 in the night session with a 0.84% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,423 yesterday with a 0.22% daily increase, and 6,419 in the night session with a - 0.06% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,447 yesterday with a 0.09% daily increase, and 6,464 in the night session with a 0.26% increase [1] - **LPG Positions and Trading Volumes**: PG2510's trading volume yesterday was 85,463, a decrease of 11,933 from the previous day, and the position was 77,824, a decrease of 7,591; PG2511's trading volume was 22,324, an increase of 1,869, and the position was 35,102, an increase of 1,953; PL2601's trading volume was 5,133, an increase of 4,067, and the position was 6,835, an increase of 1,740; PL2602's trading volume was 76, an increase of 71, and the position was 849, with no change [1] - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 138 yesterday, compared with 189 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 138 yesterday, compared with 189 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 192 yesterday, compared with 166 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 127 yesterday, compared with 141 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 52 yesterday, compared with 66 the previous day [1] - **Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, compared with 75.7% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, unchanged; the alkylation operating rate was 49.6%, compared with 49.0% before [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5] 3.3 Market Information - On September 1, 2025, the October CP paper - cargo price of propane was 534 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 508 US dollars/ton. The November CP paper - cargo price of propane was 539 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting PDH device maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; and many other companies with similar situations [7] - There are also multiple domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, including Shengli Oil Refinery in Shandong with a 70 - day maintenance from June 16 to August 25, 2025, and many other factories with different maintenance schedules [7]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250902
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 02:07
Report Information - Report Date: September 2, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: With no new fundamental drivers, consider buying on dips [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has paused, and the market is undergoing a corrective consolidation [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The market is in a rebound and oscillation phase, waiting for further guidance from US soybeans [2][9]. - **Soybean**: The market is in a rebound and oscillation phase [2][9]. - **Corn**: The market is expected to move sideways [2][12]. - **Sugar**: The market is waiting for news guidance [2][16]. - **Cotton**: The market is expected to maintain a sideways - to - bullish trend [2][20]. - **Eggs**: There is strong near - term trading competition [2][25]. - **Hogs**: The market has seen a price increase on reduced volume, and the sustainability needs to be confirmed [2][27]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][31]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,330 yuan/ton (day session) and 9,482 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.11% and 1.63% increase respectively; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton (day session) and 8,396 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 0.10% and 0.07% change respectively [4]. - **News**: From January to July 2025, Indonesia's exports of crude and refined palm oil reached 1.364 billion tons, a 10.95% year - on - year increase [5]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE豆一2511 closed at 3,965 yuan/ton (day session) and 3,980 yuan/ton (night session), with a + 0.81% and + 0.48% increase respectively; DCE豆粕2601 closed at 3,054 yuan/ton (day session) and 3,066 yuan/ton (night session), with a + 0.23% and + 0.20% increase respectively [9]. - **News**: Analysts expect US soybean crushing in July 2025 to reach 207.1 million bushels, a record high for the same period [11]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2509 closed at 2,255 yuan/ton (day session) and 2,280 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.99% and 1.11% increase respectively; C2511 closed at 2,193 yuan/ton (day session) and 2,207 yuan/ton (night session), with a 0.27% and 0.64% increase respectively [13]. - **News**: Northern corn collection port prices remained stable, and Guangdong Shekou prices also showed little change [14]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The original sugar price was 16.34 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,940 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5,609 yuan/ton [16]. - **News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average [16]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 closed at 14,025 yuan/ton (day session) and 14,085 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 1.51% and 0.43% change respectively; CY2511 closed at 20,020 yuan/ton (day session) and 20,065 yuan/ton (night session), with a - 0.60% and 0.22% change respectively [20]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading was generally weak, and the cotton yarn market also showed a slowdown in sales [21]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg2510 closed at 2,921 yuan/500 kilograms, with a - 0.48% change; Egg2601 closed at 3,320 yuan/500 kilograms, with a 0.00% change [25]. - **No significant news provided specifically for eggs in the report.** Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan spot price was 14,230 yuan/ton, Sichuan spot price was 13,650 yuan/ton, and Guangdong spot price was 15,540 yuan/ton; futures prices for different contracts also showed various changes [27]. - **News**: At the end of August and beginning of September, large - scale hog farms significantly reduced supply, leading to a price rebound. However, supply pressure remains in September and October [29]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK510 closed at 8,022 yuan/ton, with a 0.40% increase; PK511 closed at 7,830 yuan/ton, with a 0.49% increase [31]. - **News**: New peanuts are expected to be listed around mid - to - late September, and the current spot market shows stable to slightly stronger prices in some areas [32].
LPG:供需维持宽松,短期偏弱震荡,丙烯:供需收紧,现货价格高位
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-29 03:50
Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "LPG: Supply and Demand Remain Loose, Short - term Weak and Fluctuating; Propylene: Supply and Demand Tighten, Spot Price at High" and was released on August 29, 2025 [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of LPG remain loose, and it will show a short - term weak and fluctuating trend; the supply and demand of propylene tighten, and the spot price is at a high level [2][3] 3. Specific Content Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Data of LPG and Propylene - **Futures Prices**: PG2509 closed at 3,809 yesterday with a daily decline of 1.60%, and the night - session price was 3,763 with a decline of 1.21%; PG2510 closed at 4,409 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session price was 4,361 with a decline of 1.09%; PL2601 closed at 6,450 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the night - session price was 6,437 with a decline of 0.20%; PL2602 closed at 6,485 yesterday with a daily increase of 0.11%, and there was no night - session trading [3] - **Position and Trading Volume**: For PG2509, the trading volume was 5,453 yesterday (a decrease of 2131 compared with the previous day), and the position was 11,887 (a decrease of 3639 compared with the previous day); for PG2510, the trading volume was 68,724 yesterday (a decrease of 9094 compared with the previous day), and the position was 87,589 (a decrease of 1203 compared with the previous day); for PL2601, the trading volume was 1,066 yesterday (an increase of 263 compared with the previous day), and the position was 4,897 (an increase of 77 compared with the previous day); for PL2602, the trading volume was 4 yesterday (a decrease of 17 compared with the previous day), and the position was 853 (an increase of 2 compared with the previous day) [3] - **Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was 191 yesterday (compared with 192 the previous day); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 221 yesterday (compared with 232 the previous day); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 125 yesterday (compared with 116 the previous day); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was 100 yesterday (compared with 56 the previous day); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was 25 yesterday (compared with - 19 the previous day) [3] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0% (compared with 75.7% last week), the MTBE operating rate was 63.5% (unchanged from last week), and the alkylation operating rate was 49.0% (compared with 47.3% last week) [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [8] 3.3 Market Information - **CP Paper Goods Prices**: On August 28, 2025, the September CP paper - goods price of propane was 516 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the price of butane was 492 US dollars per ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The October CP paper - goods price of propane was 529 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar per ton from the previous trading day [9] - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with the end time to be determined; Quanzhou Guoheng Chemical Co., Ltd. having maintenance from July 16 to August 26, 2025, etc. [10] - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many domestic liquefied gas factories have maintenance plans, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant having a full - plant maintenance from June 16 to August 25, 2025, with a normal production volume of 400 and a loss volume of 400; Fuhai Chuang having a full - plant maintenance from the end of June to the end of August 2025, with a normal production volume of 1000 and a loss volume of 1000 [10]