投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 2 月 2 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：巴西丰收前景缓解阿根廷干旱担忧，中国采购未来数月或转向巴西采购。美豆出口销售环比骤 降。国内春节备货尾声，需求支撑有限。短期豆类市场情绪波动影响加大，需关注 2 月底巴西大范围收获 对美豆和国内豆粕的影响，短期豆类期价波动加剧，关注市场资金变化对价格的影响。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：强势 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：马棕产业链供需边际改善并未改变，机构预估马棕库存从 305 万吨峰值 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2026 年 02 月 01 日 工业硅：上游减产发酵，震荡偏强 多晶硅：关注现货实际成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面震荡偏强，现货价格持平；多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，现货报价或有松动 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面震荡偏强，部分资金交易上游工厂减产的预期，周五盘面收于 8850 元/吨。现货市场价格持稳，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8700 元/吨（环比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 9050 元/吨 (环比+100)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面区间震荡，周五受商品情绪影响，盘面多头离场价格回落，盘面收于 47140 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，上游报价或有松动预期，关注后续下游的补库节点。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存去库；多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端，上游或大幅减产。据咨询商统计，本周新疆地区开工减少，系新疆某工厂因部分因素大 面积停炉，整体周产环减。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000- 10500 元/吨(折盘面)，枯水期当地开 ...

| | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 2026 年 1 月 22 日 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 锰硅：原料价格微调，宽幅震荡 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5556 | 4 | 130,862 | 244,000 | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5542 | 14 | 34,581 | 85,925 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5748 | -12 | 71,649 | 204,097 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5786 | -12 | 135,360 | 332,292 | | | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | | 硅铁:FeS ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The cost expectation of ferrosilicon is rising, and it will fluctuate widely; the demand - side expectation of silicomanganese is tightening, and it will also fluctuate widely [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For ferrosilicon, the closing price of SF2603 is 5552 (up 4 from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 148,515 and an open interest of 245,555; the closing price of SF2605 is 5528 (down 8), with a trading volume of 52,644 and an open interest of 82,583. - For silicomanganese, the closing price of SM2603 is 5760 (down 48), with a trading volume of 140,554 and an open interest of 215,166; the closing price of SM2605 is 5798 (down 50), with a trading volume of 183,171 and an open interest of 307,065 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The spot price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton (down 20). - The spot price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton (down 20). - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 43.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread Data**: - For ferrosilicon, the spot - futures spread (spot - 03 futures) is - 302 yuan/ton (down 24), and the near - far month spread (SF2603 - SF2605) is 24 yuan/ton (up 12). - For silicomanganese, the spot - futures spread (spot - 03 futures) is - 80 yuan/ton (up 28), and the near - far month spread (SM2603 - SM2605) is - 38 yuan/ton (up 2). - The cross - variety spread (SM2603 - SF2603) is 208 yuan/ton (down 52), and (SM2605 - SF2605) is 270 yuan/ton (down 42) [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: - On January 20, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions: Shaanxi 5200 - 5300, Ningxia 5200 - 5300 (down 50), Qinghai 5250 - 5300 (down 25), Gansu 5250 - 5300 (down 50), Inner Mongolia 5250 - 5350 (down 50); 75 ferrosilicon in different regions: Shaanxi 5800 - 5850, Ningxia 5750 - 5800 (down 50), Qinghai 5700 - 5800, Gansu 5700, Inner Mongolia 5750 - 5800. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1060 - 1080 (up 10), and 75 is 1100 - 1140 (up 10). The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north is 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south is 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [2]. - **Import and Export Data**: - In 2025, the cumulative import volume of manganese ore from January to December was 3281.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 352.62 million tons (up 12.04%). The top ten import sources are South Africa, Ghana, Gabon, etc. In December 2025, the national manganese ore import volume was 327.42 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 58 million tons (up 21.53%) and a year - on - year increase of 72.17 million tons (up 28.27%) [2][3]. - In 2025, the top ten regions for China's ferrosilicon exports were Japan, South Korea, Mexico, etc. [3]. - **Procurement Information**: - Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the ferrosilicon procurement price at 5815 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 900 tons. - A steel mill in Fujian set the silicomanganese price at 5790 yuan/ton in January, with a procurement volume of 13000 tons. - Yunnan Qujing Chenggang set the silicomanganese procurement price at 5900 yuan/ton and the 72 ferrosilicon procurement price at 5780 yuan/ton, with procurement volumes of 2000 tons and 400 tons respectively [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is 0 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - PP production remains at a low level, and the profit repair is limited. The overall fundamental support at the end of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under deep losses [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of PP2605 yesterday was 6461, with a daily decline of 0.32%. The trading volume was 358,242, and the open interest decreased by 4,253. The 05 contract basis was -131, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was -31 [1] - **Spot Price**: The prices of Beihua, Donghua, and South China remained stable at 6300 yuan/ton, 6330 yuan/ton, and 6450 yuan/ton respectively [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures price declined, the upstream pre - sale pressure was not large, and traders mainly focused on overall sales. The basis was stable, and the trading atmosphere weakened significantly in the second half of last week. The year - end demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, and the sustainability of buying is questionable. The number of warehouse receipts remains high. The PP US dollar market price is stable, and the trading is difficult to improve [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Cost End**: Crude oil and propane prices are strong, and the internal valuation of olefins is differentiated. The valuation of PE in terms of internal and external and upstream profit is higher than that of PP [2] - **Supply End**: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game of existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - **Demand End**: The follow - up of new orders from downstream industries has weakened, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PP is - 1 [2]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 20 日 LLDPE：标品排产回升，现货交投转弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6667 | -0.42% | 468196 | 13977 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -67 | | -95 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -24 | | -28 | | | | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | 重要现货价格 | 华 北 | 6600 | | 6600 | | | | 华 东 | 6720 | | 6720 | | | | 华 南 | 6800 | | 6800 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 【现货消息】 期货持续回调，上游低价预售及近期 ...

2026 年 1 月 16 日 硅铁：原料成本松动，宽幅震荡 锰硅：需求端小幅收紧，宽幅震荡 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 硅铁2603 | 收盘价 5610 | 较前一交易日 -80 | 成交量 144,251 | 持仓量 215,048 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 硅铁2605 | 5596 | -72 | 32,497 | 70,966 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5870 | -50 | 127,246 | 243,818 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5898 | -40 | 81,646 | 250,383 | | | 项 目 | | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and trading strategies for each commodity [1][2] - Different commodities show diverse trends, such as some being in a short - term shock state, some showing a weakening trend, and others having a strong supply - demand relationship [2] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Valuation follows the cost - side correction, relatively neutral. Future supply is expected to be loose, and attention should be paid to the terminal restocking and the long - PX short - PTA hedging position [8] - **PTA**: The processing fee is high, and attention should be paid to reducing the processing - fee position. The supply increase is limited, and the polyester production cut plan increases, but the actual implementation needs to be observed [9] - **MEG**: Unilateral short - term strong rebound, short positions should leave. Attention should be paid to the spring inspection of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants and the 5 - 9 positive spread [9] Rubber - It shows a weakening shock trend. The fundamentals are multi - empty intertwined. The domestic production area is at the end of the tapping season, while Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. The price is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamental contradictions [10][13] LLDPE - The standard - product production ratio remains low, and spot trading has weakened. The raw - material oil price is strong, but the ethylene monomer is weak. There is a supply - demand pressure in the medium - term due to high capacity and weakening demand [14][15] PP - Monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong. However, the end - of - year demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [17][18] Caustic Soda - It is in a weakening shock state. High production and high inventory persist. Demand is weak, and supply pressure is large. Without production cuts, it is difficult to rebound significantly [20][22] Pulp - It shows a weakening shock trend. The import market sentiment is light, and the price trend is differentiated. The port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand lacks new growth [25][29] Glass - The raw - sheet price is stable. The domestic float - glass price shows a pattern of being weak in the north and strong in the south. Supply - side pressure eases slightly, and downstream demand is weak [31][32] Methanol - It follows the commodity index to oscillate and decline. The port market oscillates and consolidates, and the inland price continues to fall. High inventory and weak demand suppress the market [34][36] Styrene - It is in a short - term shock state. The current valuation is high, and attention should be paid to shorting opportunities. In the medium - term, there is still pressure due to the weakening of the PX - BZ and overseas oil - blending drivers and high domestic inventory [38][40] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The domestic float - glass price is stable with partial declines. Demand support is weakening, and the overall supply - demand situation is not good [42][43] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [46] - **Propylene**: Spot supply and demand are tightening, and the trend is strong [47] PVC - It is in a weakening shock state. The market has high production and high inventory, and the anti - involution sentiment is weakening. It is recommended to enter the market after seeing substantial large - scale maintenance plans [55][56] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session decline suspends the upward trend [58] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It turns to decline, and the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [58] Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a weakening shock state. Attention should be paid to the resumption - of - navigation expectation for the far - month contract. The 02 contract should be observed, and the 04 and 10 contracts can be considered for short - selling [60][76] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both are in a short - term shock state. The staple - fiber futures oscillate and decline, and the bottle - chip factory lowers the price following the raw - material decline [79][80] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to stop losses on short positions opportunistically. The market price is stable, production is stable in some areas, but downstream demand is limited [82][85] Pure Benzene - It is mainly in a short - term shock state. The port inventory is rising, and the market buying interest has retreated due to the price decline in East China and the futures market [87][89]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to be unilaterally strong. Attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differentials, and hedging strategies such as going long on PX and short on PTA, and going long on SC and short on PX. Although PX supply is currently loose and downstream PTA polyester's future operation may decline, the rising oil price provides cost support, and the unilateral price is expected to follow the upward trend [7]. - PTA has strong cost support. The strategy of going long on SC and short on PTA is recommended. The unilateral valuation is expected to be strong following the cost - end trends of crude oil and PX. Pay attention to reducing the processing fee position. The supply increase is limited, and the impact of polyester's planned production cut needs to be observed. PTA is expected to remain in a tight - balance state [7]. - MEG is expected to have a short - term unilateral strong rebound, and short positions should be closed. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the spring maintenance plan of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **PX**: The previous day's closing price of the PX main contract was 7282, with a decline of 26 and a decline rate of 0.36%. The PX5 - 9 spread was 58, down 12 from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The previous day's closing price of the PTA main contract was 5140, with a decline of 2 and a decline rate of 0.04%. The PTA5 - 9 spread was 52, up 4 from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The previous day's closing price of the MEG main contract was 3815, with a decline of 65 and a decline rate of 1.68%. The MEG5 - 9 spread was - 118, down 14 from the previous day [2]. - **PF**: The previous day's closing price of the PF main contract was 6506, with an increase of 4 and an increase rate of 0.06%. The PF3 - 4 spread was - 58, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **SC**: The previous day's closing price of the SC main contract was 446.7, with an increase of 9.2 and an increase rate of 2.10%. The SC2 - 3 spread was - 1.1, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **PX**: The previous day's price of PX CFR China was 898.67 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars/ton from the previous day. The PX - naphtha price difference was 339.75 dollars/ton, down 6.17 dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - **PTA**: The previous day's price of PTA in East China was 5060 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from the previous day. The PTA processing fee was 320.45 yuan/ton, down 52.31 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **MEG**: The previous day's price of MEG spot was 3682 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Naphtha**: The previous day's price of naphtha MOPJ was 561.25 dollars/ton, up 3.25 dollars/ton from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil price difference was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Brent Oil**: The previous day's price of Dated Brent was 68.56 dollars/barrel, up 3.15 dollars/barrel from the previous day [2]. Fundamental Data - **PX**: On January 13, the PX price rose. The estimated price of PX was 899 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars from January 12. The Asian PX CFR Unv1/China and FOB Korea prices assessed by Platts on January 13 were 898.67 dollars/ton and 877.67 dollars/ton respectively, both up 50 cents/ton. South Korea's S - Oil will shut down its No. 1 xylene production line with an annual output of 800,000 tons for planned maintenance in March [3][5]. - **PTA**: The current PTA operation rate is maintained at 78%. There is an overhaul plan for Yisheng New Materials' device in January, so the load increase space is limited. Polyester filament factories discussed production cuts, with a planned reduction of 15% in FDY production, and the impact on the overall polyester load depends on the implementation of the production - cut plan [7]. - **MEG**: The restart time of a 200,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol device in Henan is to be determined. It was shut down around the end of 2025 to replace the catalyst, with an expected shutdown time of about two weeks [5]. - **Polyester**: On January 13, the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were generally weak, with an average sales rate of 40 - 50% by around 3:45 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were highly differentiated, with an average sales rate of 87% by around 3:00 pm [5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the current situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, short - term view is oscillation, medium - term view is oscillation, and intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, overall in low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weak real - world situation and off - season pressure on steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Commodity sentiment is warm, and ferrous metals are oscillating and stabilizing. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The inventory inflection point has appeared, construction steel mills are resuming production, rebar output is continuously increasing with more potential for growth, weakening the positive effect of low - supply. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues its seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level in recent years, and downstream industries not improving, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The weak demand continues to drag down steel prices. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand remains weak, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [3].