热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） （朱金涛，从业资格号：F3060829；交易咨询资格号：Z0015271） 国债期货收盘，30年期主力合约涨0.07%，10年期主力合约涨0.05%，5年期主力合约涨0.06%，2年期主 力合约涨0.01%。中国央行1月28日开展3775亿元7天期逆回购，中标利率1.4%，上次中标利率1.4%。据 qeubee统计，公开市场有3635亿元7天逆回购到期，实现净投放140亿元。资金面来看，DR001下行0BP 至1.37%，DR007下行3.5BP至1.55%。短期来看，继央行结构性降息之后财政政策接续发力，稳增长政 策持续出台背景下债市持续走强动力不足，利率区间震荡的大格局依然延续。 贵金属： （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 隔夜伦敦现货黄金再次大涨，价格突破5400美元/盎司，今日凌晨高开又突破5500美元/盎司，再创历史 新高；现货银铂钯盘中震荡偏强；金银比升至46.7附近，现货铂钯价差降至660美元/盎司附近。 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场宽幅震荡，Wind全A上涨0.14%，成交额2.92万亿元。中证1000指数上涨0.2%，中证500 指数上涨0.5%，沪深300指数下跌0.03%，上证50指数上涨0.09%。近期各部位密集出台经济调控政策， 对指数形成基本面支撑。近日，发改委召开国新办发布会，表示：（1）研究设立国家级并购基金 加强 政府投资、基金布局规划；（2）综合整治"内卷式"竞争，将进一步规范地方经济促进行为；（3）正在 谋划推进一批"十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程等内容。上周，央行将下调各类结构性货 币政策工具利率25BP。结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠养 老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对于特定 领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中，有助于引导资金进入相关板块，推升板块估值。长期来 看，有助于相关板块降低融资成本，提升资本开始，实施更加积极的发展战略。此前，沪深交易所 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market was in high - level oscillation yesterday. Wind All - A dropped 0.68% with a trading volume of 3.28 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24%, the CSI 500 Index declined 0.97%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.57%, and the SSE 300 Index increased 0.1%. Recent economic regulation policies provide fundamental support. The central bank cut the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools by 25BP last week, which helps guide funds into relevant sectors and push up valuations in the long - run. The adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading may increase risk - aversion sentiment. The market is in high - level oscillation with increased short - term volatility, and the risk of a significant index decline is low in the medium - to - long - term. The overall view is "oscillation" [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.20%, while the 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell 0.02%. The central bank conducted a 1505 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase on January 26. After the central bank's structural interest - rate cut, fiscal policies continue to exert force. In the context of continuous introduction of growth - stabilizing policies, the bond market lacks the driving force for continuous strengthening, and the pattern of interest - rate range oscillation continues. The overall view is "relatively strong" [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 26, 2026, compared with January 23, IH rose 0.67% (20.4 points), IF increased 0.22% (10.2 points), IC dropped 2.17% ( - 188.2 points), and IM declined 2.67% ( - 227.4 points) [4]. - **Stock Indexes**: The SSE 50 rose 0.57% (17.4 points), the SSE 300 increased 0.10% (4.5 points), the CSI 500 fell 0.97% ( - 83.5 points), and the CSI 1000 declined 1.24% ( - 105.3 points) [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: TS fell 0.03% ( - 0.026 points), TF dropped 0.03% ( - 0.03 points), T declined 0.01% ( - 0.015 points), and TL rose 0.19% (0.21 points) [4]. 3.2 Market News - The ChiNext Index fell more than 1%, the SSE Composite Index dropped 0.2%, and the SZSE Component Index declined 0.81%. Sectors such as semiconductor chips, commercial spaceflight, robotics, and AI applications led the decline. Nearly 4000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets fell [6]. - In 2025, domestic residents' travel trips reached 65.22 billion, an increase of 9.07 billion compared with the previous year, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. Among them, urban residents' domestic travel trips were 49.96 billion, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%; rural residents' domestic travel trips were 15.26 billion, a year - on - year increase of 22.6% [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis 3.3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Contract Trends**: Charts show the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts from January 2025 to January 2026 [8]. - **Basis Trends**: Charts present the trends of the current - month basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM from January 2025 to January 2026 [9][11]. 3.3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Contract and Yield Trends**: Charts display the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts and treasury bond spot yields from January 2025 to January 2026 [15]. - **Basis, Spread, and Interest - rate Trends**: Charts show the basis of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest - rates from January 2024 to January 2026 [16][19][23]. 3.3.3 Exchange Rates - **Exchange - rate Trends**: Charts illustrate the trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, forward exchange - rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen from January 2025 to January 2026 [25][26][29][30]. 3.4 Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures practice qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [32]. - Wang Dongying, an equity index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market fund - flow tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [32].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2026 年 01 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 市场全天高位震荡，截止收盘沪指涨 0.14%，深成指涨 0.5%，创业板指涨 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 1.01%。央行下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率 25BP。结构性货币政策工具 以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠养老、碳减排等近期股 | | | | 市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对 | | | | 于特定领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中，有助于引导资金进入 | | | | 相关板块，推升板块估值。此外，更低的融资成本有助于相关板块资本性支 | | | 股指 | 出提升，促进企业盈利的增加，有助于长期资金提升对相关题材的配置。此 | 震荡 | | | 前，沪深交易所发布通知，将融资买入证券保证金最低比例由 80%调为 100%， | | | | 尽管实际影响有待观察，但资金避险情绪明显增加，市场进入高位震荡模式， | | | | 短期波动加大，需谨慎追高，观望为主。本轮牛市是由科技题材突破创新驱 | | | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced high-level fluctuations, with Wind All A Index rising by 0.44% and a trading volume of 2.72 trillion yuan [10] - The China Securities Index 1000 increased by 0.79%, while the CSI 500 rose by 0.57%. The CSI 300 saw a marginal increase of 0.01%, and the SSE 50 index fell by 0.46% [10] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices. The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to establish a national-level merger fund to enhance government investment and fund layout planning [10] - The commission also aims to regulate "involutionary" competition and is planning to advance significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points, reflecting targeted support for specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation, inclusive elderly care, and carbon reduction [10] - This interest rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, boosting valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors [10] - The current market is characterized by high-level fluctuations, with increased short-term volatility, suggesting a cautious approach to buying [10] Bull Market Dynamics - The ongoing bull market is driven by breakthroughs in technology and geopolitical uncertainties that promote strategic resource procurement, supported by global liquidity easing [10] - The long-term outlook suggests that the influences driving the market are not yet over, with a low risk of significant index declines [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The A-share market continued to rise on January 21, 2026, with the Wind All A index up 0.57% and a trading volume of 2.62 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 0.79%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.12%, the SSE 50 index fell 0.11%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.09%. The recent economic regulation policies have provided fundamental support for the index. The central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools and the adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading have affected market sentiment. The stock market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, but the risk of a significant decline in the index is relatively low in the medium to long term [1]. - On January 21, 2026, the 30-year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.75%, the 10-year contract rose 0.03%, the 5-year contract rose 0.01%, and the 2-year contract fell 0.01%. The central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 122.7 billion yuan. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate under the current environment of loose funds, stable economy, rising prices, and low short-term expectations of a comprehensive interest rate cut. The yield curve is expected to remain steep [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - The A-share market continued to rise, with different performance among various indices. The recent economic regulation policies and the central bank's interest rate cut on structural monetary policy tools have provided support for the market. However, the adjustment of the minimum margin ratio for margin trading has increased market volatility. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and investors are advised to be cautious [1]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The Treasury bond futures market showed mixed performance on January 21, 2026. The central bank's reverse repurchase operations and the current market environment have affected the bond market. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the yield curve is expected to remain steep [3]. 3.2 Daily Price Changes - The prices of stock index futures and stock indices showed different trends on January 21, 2026. The prices of some Treasury bond futures contracts also changed. The specific price changes are as follows: - Stock Index Futures: IH fell 0.06%, IF rose 0.30%, IC rose 1.48%, and IM rose 1.36% [4]. - Stock Indices: The SSE 50 index fell 0.11%, the SSE 300 index rose 0.09%, the CSI 500 index rose 1.12%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.79% [4]. - Treasury Bond Futures: TS fell 0.01%, TF rose 0.00%, T rose 0.02%, and TL rose 0.68% [4]. 3.3 Market News - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, stated that the government will continue to implement city - specific policies to promote the stable operation of the real estate market. The government will support the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises and the rigid and improved housing needs of residents [5]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts showing the historical trends of stock index futures contracts (IH, IF, IM, IC), their basis, and other indicators, which can help investors analyze the market trends of stock index futures [7][8][10]. 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of Treasury bond futures contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates, which can assist in the analysis of the Treasury bond futures market [14][17][18]. 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of exchange rates, including the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, and the exchange rates between major currencies such as the US dollar, euro, pound, and yen, which can help investors understand the trends of the foreign exchange market [22][24][26].

（王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场继续上涨，Wind全A上涨0.57%，成交额2.62万亿元。中证1000指数上涨0.79%，中证 500指数上涨1.12%，沪深300指数上涨0.09%，上证50指数下跌0.11%。近期各部位密集出台经济调控政 策，对指数形成基本面支撑。近日，发改委召开国新办发布会，表示：（1）研究设立国家级并购基金 加强政府投资、基金布局规划；（2）综合整治"内卷式"竞争，将进一步规范地方经济促进行为；（3） 正在谋划推进一批"十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程等内容。上周，央行将下调各类结构 性货币政策工具利率25BP。结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠 养老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对于特 定领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中，有助于引导资金进入相关板块，推升板块估值。长期 来看，有助于相关板块降低融资成本，提升资本开始，实施更加积极的发展战略。此前，沪深交易所发 布通知，将融资买入证券保证金最低比例由80%调为100%，尽管实际影 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场继续震荡，Wind全A下跌0.58%，成交额2.8万亿元。中证1000指数下跌1%，中证500指 数下跌0.48%，沪深300指数下跌0.33%，上证50指数下跌0.17%。近期各部位密集出台经济调控政策， 对指数形成基本面支撑。近日，发改委召开国新办发布会，表示：（1）研究设立国家级并购基金 加强 政府投资、基金布局规划；（2）综合整治"内卷式"竞争，将进一步规范地方经济促进行为；（3）正在 谋划推进一批"十五五"时期高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程等内容。上周，央行将下调各类结构性货 币政策工具利率25BP。结构性货币政策工具以定向支持社会特定融资需求为主，科技创新、普惠养 老、碳减排等近期股市热点题材均涵盖其中。本次降息体现了央行在保持总量稳定的基础上，对于特定 领域的进一步资金支持，在本轮流动性牛市中，有助于引导资金进入相关板块，推升板块估值。长期来 看，有助于相关板块降低融资成本，提升资本开始，实施更加积极的发展战略。此前，沪深交易所发布 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced high-level fluctuations with Wind All A index rising by 0.41% and a trading volume of 2.73 trillion yuan [9] - The central bank announced a 25 basis points reduction in the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technology innovation, inclusive elderly care, and carbon reduction [9][10] - The recent bull market is driven by breakthroughs in technology themes and geopolitical uncertainties, which have collectively pushed the equity market upward [9] Monetary Policy - The central bank's interest rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing capital expenditures and promoting corporate profitability [9] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating increased risk aversion among investors [9] - The central bank's structural monetary policy tools have been optimized to include carbon reduction projects and expanded coverage for private SMEs with high R&D investments [10] Bond Market - The bond futures market saw a decline, with the 30-year main contract dropping by 0.22% and the 10-year contract down by 0.02% [10] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a net injection of 722 billion yuan, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10] - The overall bond market is expected to continue a bearish trend, influenced by the central bank's focus on reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy [10] Precious Metals - London spot gold showed strong fluctuations, while silver continued to perform robustly, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to around 49.7 [11] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and trade disputes, have heightened investor anxiety, keeping gold's short-term appeal strong [11] - The platinum and palladium markets are experiencing high volatility, with potential buying opportunities arising after price corrections [11]

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the market's upward momentum has slowed, with trading funds remaining active, leading to a significant increase in turnover rates, surpassing the high point from August 2025 [3][9] - The report suggests that the spring market is still in progress, and a period of sideways consolidation following excessive short-term trading is normal, with policies indicating a temporary cooling but maintaining an overall loose tone [9][10] - The report emphasizes that in the liquidity bull market phase, price increases may be a significant theme, driven by the narrative of re-pricing key resources under the backdrop of de-globalization and supply chain restructuring [4][10] Group 2 - The report highlights that the long-term view remains optimistic about the potential for a new super cycle in commodity prices, despite short-term fluctuations [4][24] - It identifies that the current price cycle is primarily driven by supply chain security, with geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts enhancing the strategic value of resource commodities [10][24] - The report notes that both supply and demand sides benefit from the expansion of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and other emerging sectors, while traditional demand is recovering [24][25] Group 3 - The report outlines that the main drivers of the current price increase are supply constraints combined with demand shifts, with a focus on the elasticity of supply [24][32] - It mentions that the supply constraints include capacity limitations in key resources like copper and rare earths, as well as policies aimed at reducing excess capacity [24][32] - The report also points out that the demand side should focus on the expansion opportunities in new energy sectors, which are expected to drive growth [24][32] Group 4 - The report indicates that the market may continue to show strength in the near term, with potential volatility in January, but the overall downward risk is manageable [32][35] - It suggests that the liquidity environment is likely to remain favorable leading up to the Spring Festival, with the possibility of further capital inflows supporting market stability [32][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring regulatory changes and the speed of supply release as potential sources of market volatility [32][35]