Market Overview - On October 10, U.S. stock markets experienced a significant drop, with the Dow Jones down 1.03%, S&P 500 down 1.53%, and Nasdaq down 2.24% [1][2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell sharply by 4.28%, with major Chinese stocks like Kingsoft Cloud down over 9%, NIO, Bilibili, Alibaba, and Xpeng down over 7%, and Baidu, Futu Holdings, and JD down over 6% [2][3] Consumer Confidence and Inflation - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, slightly above the forecast of 54.2 and down from the previous value of 55.1 [2] - Current personal financial conditions and future business environment perceptions improved, but expectations for future personal finances and evaluations of current durable goods purchasing conditions declined, leading to a net neutral effect [2] - Short-term inflation expectations decreased from 4.7% to 4.6%, while long-term inflation expectations remained stable at 3.7% [3] International Markets - The FTSE A50 index futures dropped over 3%, and the Hang Seng Index futures fell nearly 4% [4][6] - European stock markets also declined, with the UK FTSE 100 down nearly 1%, and both the French CAC40 and Italian MIB indices down over 1% [8] Commodity Prices - International oil prices saw a significant decline, with WTI crude oil down over 3% and Brent crude oil down nearly 3% [9] - Conversely, international gold prices rebounded, with London gold and COMEX gold rising over 1% [9] Trade Relations - In response to U.S. restrictions on Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industries, China announced countermeasures, including special port fees for U.S.-flagged vessels, effective October 14 [7]

Market Performance - Chinese concept stocks are showing overall weak performance, with major indices such as the Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index, Wind Chinese Stocks 100 Index, and Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index all declining over 2% [2] - The Wind Chinese Technology Leaders Index is currently at 4732.44, down 3.06%, while the Wind Chinese Stocks 100 Index is at 3267.28, down 2.96% [3] Futures and Commodities - The FTSE China A50 Index futures experienced a sharp decline, currently down 1.14% [2] - The FTSE China A50 Index is reported at 14985.06, down 1.87% [4] - Oil prices are continuing to drop, with WTI crude oil falling over 3% to reach a new low since early May, while Brent crude oil is down over 2%, currently at $63.60 per barrel [4][5] Consumer Confidence - The preliminary consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan for October is reported at 55, the lowest since May, slightly above the forecast of 54.2 and down from the previous value of 55.1 [6] - Consumer sentiment regarding current personal financial situations and the business environment for the next year has improved, but expectations for future personal finances and current purchasing conditions for durable goods have declined, leading to a net neutral outlook on the economy [7] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed an open attitude towards a potential 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting, citing concerns over a possibly negative employment growth trend [8] - Waller emphasized that the labor market is a key concern and that the decision-making process should remain cautious despite the desire for continued rate cuts [8]

那场轰轰烈烈的贸易战，动静那么大，说是为了"让美国再次伟大"。 这还只是城里的感受。 你要是去中西部，去那些一望无际的大豆田里看看，那才叫真的绝望。 以前，那里是美国农民的骄傲。码头上运豆子的货船，排着长队，几乎都是开往中国的。他们是最大的买家，多少农场主就指着这个活呢。 然后，一纸关税令下来，世界变了。 中国那边二话不说，扭头就跟巴西、阿根廷签了大单。人家南美现在忙着扩建港口、新建粮仓，一套完整的供应链，压根就没美国什么事儿了。 美国大豆协会的主席，一个愁眉苦脸的老头，对着记者说，这事儿最可怕的地方在于，就算明天所有关税都取消，失去的市场也回不来了。 人家已经找到了新的朋友，不再需要你了。 可结果呢？你有没有发现，去趟超市，钱包越来越瘪？什么东西都好像悄悄涨了价。 那多出来的一笔钱，有个听起来挺专业的词儿，叫"关税附加费"。 说白了，就是兜兜转转，最后还是普通人自己买了单。这记保护的拳头，没打着别人，反而闷闷地砸在了自己胸口上。 你觉得日子紧了，开小工厂的王老板比你更愁。他那厂子，一堆零件都得从外面进。关税一加，成本呼呼地往上涨。订单呢？少了。没办法，只能 让两个跟着他干了好几年的老师傅先回家歇着。 整个社 ...

此外，报告还指出，10月澳大利亚购房时机指数环比上升0.4%，至96.5点；失业预期指数环比下降 2.9%，至127.6点；房价预期指数环比上升2.1%，至171.9点；利率预期指数环比上升15.6%，至101.7 点。 哈桑说，澳央行将于11月3日至4日举行下一次货币政策会议。鉴于通胀率已经处于澳央行目标区间之 内，且货币政策仍略显紧缩，澳央行有望进一步降息。不过，澳央行对货币政策调整持谨慎态度，尤其 是在通胀数据好于预期的情况下，因此11月是否降息还不能确定。但他认为，澳央行拖延进一步降息的 时间越长，最终降息幅度超过当前预期的可能性就越大。 （文章来源：新华财经） 报告指出，过去2个月该指数共下滑6.5%，回吐了5月至8月期间因降息而受到提振的全部涨幅。10月消 费者信心指数显示，澳大利亚的消费者信心陷入了"坚定悲观"状态，不过信心指数仍然高于澳大利亚处 于生活成本危急期间的水平。 西太平洋银行澳大利亚宏观经济预测主管马修·哈桑表示，近期发布的经济数据显示，澳大利亚的通胀 率已回升至澳大利亚央行设定的2-3%这一目标区间的顶部，同时该国消费需求走强，房地产市场出现 回暖迹象。这些似乎引发了人们对货币政策 ...

每经AI快讯，澳大利亚10月份消费者信心指数跌至六个月低点，澳大利亚10月份西太平洋银行消费者 信心指数降至92.1，环比下降3.5%。 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a delay in the release of official economic data, including the September employment report, which was originally scheduled for October 3 [3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.09%, the Dow Jones by 1.10%, and the Nasdaq by 1.32% over the past week, while European indices also performed well, with the FTSE 100 up 2.22% and the DAX 30 up 2.69% [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Investors are anticipating a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October and an 85% probability of another cut in December [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes and speeches from officials, including Chairman Powell, are expected to provide insights into future monetary policy [3][4] Gold and Oil Prices - International gold prices have reached a new high, closing at $3,880.80 per ounce, marking a 2.77% increase for the week, driven by concerns over the prolonged government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts [6] - In contrast, international oil prices have dropped significantly, with WTI crude oil falling 7.36% to $60.88 per barrel, influenced by OPEC+ production increases and seasonal demand declines [6] European Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to release the minutes from its September meeting, with inflation in the Eurozone rising from 2.0% to 2.2% [7] - The upcoming budget announcement from the UK government is anticipated to be a significant indicator, with concerns over the economic outlook reflected in the low demand for UK 10-year government bonds [7][8] Upcoming Economic Data Releases - Key economic data releases this week include the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and various manufacturing and trade data from Germany and the Eurozone [9]

10 月 09 日美联储公布货币政策会议纪要（02:00）欧洲央行公布 9 月货币政策会议纪要（19:30）美联 储主席鲍威尔在美联储理事会主办的一场社区银行会议上做开场讲话（预先录制）（20:30）美国至 10 月 4 日当周初请失业金人数(万人)（20:30）美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话（20:35） 上周回顾美国 9 月 ADP 就业人数 -3.2 万人，为 2023 年 3 月来最大降幅，预期 5 万人，前值 5.4 万人。 交易员提高对年内美联储进一步降息两次的押注。受美国政府停摆影响，美国 9 月非农就业报告暂未公 布。日本银行货币政策会议摘要称两名委员提议加息。中国 9 月官方制造业 PMI 升至 49.8%。加央行 会议纪要：通胀风险有所减弱政策重心转向应对经济疲软。 本周重点事件 & 指标 10 月 06 日 OpenAI 将在旧金山举行 2025 开发者大会 10 月 08 日新西兰联储公布利率决议（09:00）美联储理事巴尔发表讲话（21:30） 来源：市场资讯 （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周受美国政府停摆影响，美国 9 月非农就业报告暂未公 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for October, including employment data and consumer confidence indices in the US and Eurozone [2][3] - Key dates include the release of the US September ADP employment numbers and the unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone's August unemployment rate [2] - The article highlights the importance of the US non-farm payroll data and the consumer confidence index for October, which are critical for assessing economic health [3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's September industrial profits and the significance of these figures for understanding the country's economic performance [3] - It also notes the scheduled announcements from central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, which could impact market expectations [3] - The article emphasizes the relevance of oil inventory data and production numbers, which are crucial for the energy sector [2][3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the US consumer confidence index fell to 94.2 in September, marking a five-month low and below market expectations [1][2] - The consumer confidence index decreased by 3.6 from the revised data of August, with the present situation index at 125.4, down by 7 from August [1] - The expectations index, which reflects consumers' short-term outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped to 73.4, a decline of 1.3 from August [1] Group 2 - The consumer confidence index for individuals under 35 increased, while it decreased for those aged 35 and above [2] - The current assessment of the business and labor market conditions saw the largest drop in a year, with the employment situation index declining for nine consecutive months [2] - Inflation and prices emerged as the primary concerns for consumers in September, with many linking tariffs to rising prices [2] - The average inflation expectation for the next 12 months is 5.8%, down from 6.1% in August but still above the approximately 5% expected by the end of 2024 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in the U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index from 97.8 to 94.2 in September indicates a potential risk of contraction in consumer spending, a critical pillar of the U.S. economy [2] Economic Indicators - Despite considerable uncertainty, the U.S. economy has shown resilience, primarily supported by consumer spending growth [2] - A noticeable decline in consumer spending could extinguish the main engine driving the U.S. economy [2] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in the September meeting, with expectations of further cuts in October [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious remarks add uncertainty to future monetary policy [2] - The Fed is likely to adopt a gradual and modest rate-cutting strategy, which may provide limited support to the current U.S. economy [2]