Core Viewpoint - The Westpac Bank and Melbourne Institute report indicates a further decline in consumer confidence in Australia, with the index dropping 2.6% to 90.5 points in February 2026, reflecting ongoing pessimism among consumers due to interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence Index - The consumer confidence index has decreased to 90.5 points, remaining in a pessimistic state, influenced by the RBA's interest rate hike [1] - The decline in consumer confidence is less severe than historical averages, with a 2.6% drop compared to an average of 3.8% following past rate hikes [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The sub-index predicting the economic situation for the next year increased by 0.1% to 88.5 points, while the five-year outlook decreased by 2.5% to 94.1 points [2] - Indicators related to household finances show a slight decline, with the one-year financial outlook down 0.1% to 97.7 points and the past year's financial situation down 4.7% to 78.8 points [2] - The index for purchasing major household items fell by 5.6% to 93.5 points, and the housing market index dropped 6.3% to 84 points [2] Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The interest rate expectations index surged by 16.1% to 177.5 points, the highest level since June 2023, indicating rising consumer anticipation of further rate hikes [3] - The RBA is expected to hold its next monetary policy meeting in mid-March, with potential for another rate increase in May, depending on upcoming inflation data [3] Group 4: Additional Consumer Confidence Reports - The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index fell by 3.6 points to 76.9 points, marking the lowest level since December 2023, coinciding with the RBA's rate hike to 4.35% [4] - The most significant decline in consumer confidence was observed in assessments of the macroeconomic situation, particularly among households repaying mortgages [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Treasury futures prices generally rose, and the 10-year treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.795%. The central bank's open market reverse repurchase had a net injection of 38 billion yuan, and the short - end Shibor varieties mostly rose, but the overnight interest rate was below 1.3%. The central bank continued to expand the scale of open - market treasury bond trading operations, and the capital market remained loose before the Spring Festival. - After three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts, the Fed paused. The market expects the new - nominated Fed chairman's monetary policy to be a unique combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction". The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3, the highest in six months, and US Treasury yields rebounded. - In January, the three major manufacturing PMIs showed a seasonal decline. In December, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by the decline in real estate development investment. The real estate market is still in adjustment. - The Ministry of Finance said that in 2026, the fiscal deficit and total expenditure will remain at a necessary level. The central bank pointed out that in 2026, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The market capital is loose, and treasury futures prices continue to stabilize. It is recommended to operate cautiously before the festival [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury futures generally rose. For example, the T2603 contract rose 0.06%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of TS2603 decreased by 3,008, while that of TS2606 increased by 4,514 [2]. - **Arbitrage**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury futures contracts was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 7bp, DR007 interest rate rose 4.61bp, and GC007 interest rate rose 3.7bp [2]. - **China's Key - term Treasury Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield declined 0.46bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 34.38bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Yields**: The US 10Y Treasury yield remained unchanged, the German 10Y Treasury yield rose 3bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury yield rose 5.3bp. The internal - external yield spreads also changed accordingly [2]. Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: On February 9, the central bank carried out 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38 billion yuan [3]. - **Policy Adjustments**: The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges optimized a package of refinancing measures, focusing on high - quality listed companies and the science and technology innovation field. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments extended the tax - preferential policy for returned cross - border e - commerce export goods for two years until the end of 2027 [3]. - **Economic Data and Expectations**: The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3. The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, and the market expects about 70,000 new jobs in the January non - farm payroll report [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the fundamentals are in a stage of sufficient supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals are in a situation of stable supply and improved demand, with seasonal accumulation of industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals are in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand, with high industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 23,540 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,868 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 3,110 US dollars/ton, up 84 US dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,165 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan [2] - **Spreads and Positions**: The spread between the main and second - continuous contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 165 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the spread between the main and second - continuous contracts of alumina was - 108 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan; the spread between the main and second - continuous contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 25 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum were 197,639 lots, down 1,843 lots; the main contract positions of alumina were 333,870 lots, down 7,930 lots; the main contract positions of cast aluminum alloy were 13,808 lots, up 9,803 lots [2] - **Inventories**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 50,325 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 490,975 tons, down 2,000 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventories were 245,140 tons, up 28,369 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 74,425 tons, up 357 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE warrants were 164,512 tons, up 8,979 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE registered warrants were 68,535 tons, up 1,452 tons [2] - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was - 43,884 lots, up 7,560 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.57, down 0.14 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 23,650 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous market AOO aluminum was 23,110 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [2] - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 1,485 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 140 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 22.32 US dollars/ton, up 3.45 US dollars; the basis of alumina was - 313 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 84%, down 1%; the alumina开工率 was 82.49%, down 1% [2] - **Demand and Supply Balance**: The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was - 100 million tons, down 100 million tons [2] - **Prices and Trade**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 17,950 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons; the export volume of alumina was 21 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import volume of alumina was 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The production of primary aluminum imports was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the production of primary aluminum exports was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons; the total capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.20 million tons, up 4 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum开工率 was 98.79%, up 0.48% [2] - **Output of Related Products**: The output of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.40 million tons, up 1.60 million tons; the output of aluminum alloy was 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2] - **Export Volume**: The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 54 million tons, down 3 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile Production**: Automobile production was 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2] - **Real Estate Index**: The national real estate climate index was 91.45, down 0.44 [2] 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 38.70%, down 0.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 31.44%, up 0.07% [2] - **Implied Volatility and Ratio**: The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 20.39%, up 0.0030; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.78, up 0.0016 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson was "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth could help inflation fall to the central bank's 2% target [2] - The State Council Executive Meeting studied policies and measures to promote effective investment, requiring innovation and improvement of policies and measures to make better use of central budgetary investment, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds and new policy - based financial instruments [2] - China's social logistics cost has been steadily decreasing for many years, and the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP in 2025 dropped to 13.9%, the lowest level since statistics began [2] - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3, the highest level in six months, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest level in a year [2] - China will build a "1 + N" policy system to cultivate new growth points in service consumption and introduce support policies for more than 10 specific fields [2]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On February 9, the domestic commodity futures market showed mixed results, with platinum rising over 10%, silver over 8%, and palladium over 7% [1][2]. - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1664.20 points, up 34.86 points or 2.14% from the previous trading day [1]. - The overall commodity index also increased by 48.07 points, closing at 2294.88 points, reflecting a similar 2.14% rise [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Precious metals experienced a strong rebound, led by platinum's increase of 10.58%, silver's rise of 8.90%, and palladium's gain of 7.59% [2]. - Factors contributing to this rally include a weaker US dollar, increased buying interest, and China's central bank's gold purchases in January, which totaled 40,000 ounces, exceeding the previous month's 30,000 ounces [2]. - Despite positive consumer confidence in the US, the dollar index was not significantly boosted, and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve supported bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals Insights - Industrial metals also saw gains, with lithium carbonate rising over 3% due to ongoing inventory depletion [3]. - The price of lithium carbonate briefly surpassed 140,000 yuan per ton, supported by a tight supply-demand balance despite lower production during the Chinese New Year [3]. - Data showed that lithium carbonate weekly production was 20,744 tons, down 825 tons week-on-week, while social inventory decreased by 2,019 tons, reinforcing the expectation of sustained demand [3]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Trends - Styrene experienced a significant drop of nearly 3%, attributed to weakening cost support from oil prices and declining demand as the Chinese New Year approached [4]. - The market anticipates an increase in styrene supply due to returning maintenance schedules, while downstream demand is expected to decrease during the holiday [4]. - For silicon and manganese silicon, both commodities fell over 1%, with current low iron water production limiting upward price potential [5]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding upcoming US economic data releases, which may impact precious metals [2]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to face short-term limitations on price rebounds due to macroeconomic influences and slowing transaction volumes as the holiday approaches [3]. - The outlook for silicon and manganese silicon prices will depend on the balance between supply excess and demand resilience in the steel sector [5].

Macro News - The U.S. one-year inflation rate expectation for February is initially set at 3.5%, down from a previous value of 4% [1] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February is reported at 57.3, exceeding the expected 55 and the previous value of 56.4 [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that the recent decline in gold prices appears to be driven by speculative selling [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March is 19.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 80.1% [1] Gold Market - As of the end of January, China's gold reserves stand at 74.19 million ounces (approximately 2,307.567 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces (about 1.24 tons) [2] - This increase represents the 15th consecutive month of gold reserve accumulation by China [2] Institutional Insights - Market sentiment has improved, leading to a rise in U.S. stock prices and a weakening dollar, which in turn has strengthened gold and silver prices [3] - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to emotional and risk releases following a rapid price increase, while the macroeconomic environment remains favorable for gold and silver in the long term [3] - Upcoming important data releases, including U.S. retail sales, non-farm payrolls, and CPI, are anticipated, but domestic conditions suggest a cautious approach to trading due to the approaching Chinese New Year [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations with low volatility, and the trading atmosphere is relatively quiet, particularly around the key level of the US dollar index at 97.496, indicating a lack of clear directional signals [1]. Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is engaged in a range-bound trading pattern, with both bulls and bears contesting around the 97-98 range, showing signs of reduced momentum [1]. - Major non-USD currencies are performing steadily without clear direction, with the British pound closing at 1.3614 against the dollar and the dollar-yen pair trading around 156.5600 [1]. Group 2: Key Data and Events - Important upcoming data includes Japan's December trade balance, Switzerland's January consumer confidence index, and the Eurozone's February Sentix investor confidence index, which are expected to impact currency movements based on deviations from forecasts [1]. - The ASEAN finance ministers and central bank deputies' working group meeting is taking place, which may influence Southeast Asian currencies and global market sentiment through policy statements and cooperation developments [1]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The US dollar index is in a consolidation phase, with a downward channel formed since January 19, and currently holding above the 5-day moving average at 97.52 while facing resistance from the 10-day moving average at 97.89 [1]. - The euro against the dollar shows a bullish trend with key support levels at 1.1750-1.1765, and a potential upward movement towards 1.1900-1.1920 if it breaks above 1.1835 [2]. - The British pound against the dollar is in a state of indecision with increasing divergence between bulls and bears, and a need for clear signals to determine the next direction [3]. - The dollar-yen pair maintains a strong upward structure with key support levels at 156.30-156.50, and a potential breakout above 157.00 could open further upward movement [3]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The Middle East situation is tense with escalating US-Iran confrontations, which could lead to volatility in energy and safe-haven assets [4]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is prompting new sanctions from the EU and discussions for peace talks, impacting energy prices and currency valuations [4]. - Japan's recent election results may influence the yen's value and stock pricing, as the ruling party plans to lower consumption tax [4]. Group 5: Economic Indicators - The Michigan University consumer confidence index has shown improvement, with one-year inflation expectations dropping to a 13-month low, which may affect the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5]. - Upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials and key economic data releases are anticipated to influence market sentiment and asset pricing [6].

Group 1 - The Swiss consumer confidence index for January is reported at -32.25, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment [1] - The previous value was revised from -30.7 to -33.99, reflecting a more negative outlook than initially reported [1]

Group 1: International Gold Market - On Friday, international gold prices fluctuated and closed higher, opening at $4779.32 per ounce, reaching a high of $4971.39 and a low of $4654.35, ultimately closing at $4966.61 per ounce [1][10] - COMEX gold futures reported at $4988.60 per ounce [10] - The London spot gold price increased by 3.98% from the previous day's close, with a year-to-date increase of 15.01% [11] Group 2: Currency and Economic Data - The onshore RMB closed at 6.9401 against the USD, appreciating by 7 basis points from the previous trading day, while the USD index fell by 0.36% to 97.6102 [1][20] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose to 57.3 this month, up from a final value of 56.4 in January [1][24] - The central bank conducted a 315 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation and a 300 billion yuan 14-day reverse repo operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 146 billion yuan for the day [1][15] Group 3: Precious Metals and Commodity Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's AU99.99 contract closed at 1093.85 yuan per gram, while the main futures contract closed at 1090.12 yuan per gram [12] - The SPDR Gold ETF held 1,076.23 tons of gold, remaining unchanged from the previous week [14][15] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported various commodity prices, with LME aluminum at $3110.00 and LME zinc at $3383.00, reflecting increases of 2.74% and 2.45% respectively [11] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising by 2.47% to 50115.67 points, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.97% to 6932.30 points, and the Nasdaq up by 2.18% to 23031.21 points [21][22] - In contrast, the A-share market saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.25% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.33% [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data indicates a strengthening of the Chinese yuan against various currency baskets, reflecting a positive trend in the currency's valuation and external economic factors supporting this movement [1][5][6]. Group 1: Currency Index Performance - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index stood at 98.34, increasing by 1.35% week-on-week [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index reported 105.44, with a weekly rise of 1.38% [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index was at 93.44, showing a weekly increase of 0.92% [1][2]. Group 2: External Economic Factors - The U.S. Congress passed a funding bill, resolving a partial government shutdown, which may influence market sentiment [5]. - Federal Reserve officials expressed cautious optimism about the U.S. economic outlook, with discussions on inflation and interest rate adjustments ongoing [5]. - The U.S. consumer confidence index reached 57.3, the highest in six months, while inflation expectations dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year [5]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Factors - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching $33,991 billion, up by $412 billion or 1.23% from the previous month [6]. - Gold reserves rose to 7,419 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces month-on-month [6]. - The stable economic performance in China is seen as a support for maintaining a reasonable level of the RMB exchange rate [6]. Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - The RMB has appreciated for eleven consecutive weeks, with moderate volatility against a basket of currencies [7]. - Seasonal factors, such as pre-Spring Festival currency settlement, have contributed to the RMB's strengthening [7]. - Future RMB performance may depend on external factors, particularly the U.S. dollar's movements, as seasonal influences diminish [7].

Group 1 - The upcoming week will feature key economic data releases in the U.S., including the January non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with adjustments in release dates due to a brief government shutdown [1] - The January ADP employment figure recorded an increase of 22,000, significantly below the market expectation of 48,000, and down from the previous value of 41,000 [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained the three key interest rates in the Eurozone at 2%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with stable rates [1] Group 2 - For the week ending January 31, the initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 231,000, exceeding the expected 212,000 and up from the previous value of 209,000 [1] - The Bank of Japan's January monetary policy meeting summary indicated that some members proposed raising interest rates to address inflation concerns [1] - The preliminary one-year inflation rate expectation for February in the U.S. has decreased to 3.5%, lower than the market expectation of 4% [1] Group 3 - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index preliminary value rose from 56.4 in January to 57.3, indicating a rebound in consumer confidence [1] - Key economic data releases for the week include the U.S. unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data on February 11, initial jobless claims on February 12, and the unadjusted CPI year-on-year data on February 13 [1]