（原标题：美联储火速启动"迷你QE"，"鸽声嘹亮"背后暗藏玄机） 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者吴斌 美联储年末"收官"会议意外"鸽声嘹亮"。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间12月10日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦 基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月 以来第六次降息。 在利率决议后的新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，今年美联储通过三次会议降息75个基点，这一 政策立场的进一步正常化将有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时使通胀在关税影响消退后得以重新朝着2%的 目标下降。 值得注意的是，美联储还迅速宣布将启动"迷你QE"，通过短期国债购买计划调控市场流动性水平。这 项技术性操作将于12月12日启动。首轮操作将购买约400亿美元的短期国库券。美联储还补充称，购债 规模将"在数月内保持较高水平"，此后购债规模将"大幅缩减"。 市场原本预计美联储会"鹰派降息"，但最终却"鸽声"阵阵，背后暗藏哪些玄机？ 由于数据缺失和经济形势不确定，鲍威尔表示，美联储将在连续三次降息后转向观望模式。 法国里昂商学院管理实践教授李徽徽对21世纪经济报 ...

2026年利率路径的预测分歧尤为突出：2026年预测：在19位官员中，7人全年不降息(其中4人预计维持 不变，3人甚至认为应加息一次)，"不降或加息"阵营合计7人，占36.8%；而在鸽派一端，出现了点阵图 历史上从未有过的极端观点——1位官员认为2026年应累计降息6次，总降幅达到150个基点，与鹰派阵 营的观点形成鲜明对立。 此外，在2025年终利率的预测中，有6位官员选择了3.75%-4.00%的区间，这一预测区间明显高于本次会 议确定的3.50%-3.75%目标区间，相当于明确暗示"12月本不应进行本次降息"。 今日周四(12月11日)亚盘时段，纸白银目前交投于14.128一线上方，今日开盘于13.748元/克，截至发 稿，纸白银暂报14.182元/克，上涨3.19%，最高触及14.263元/克，最低下探13.654元/克，目前来看，纸 白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 作为美联储政策路径的重要指引，本次公布的点阵图呈现出"中值稳定、分布撕裂"的鲜明特征。 从整体中值路径来看，与9月会议的预测完全一致：2025年底联邦基金利率中值为3.6%、2026年底为 3.4%、2027年底为3.1%，长期 ...

Economic Forecast - GDP growth forecasts for Q4 2025 to Q4 2028 have been revised up by 0.1pct, 0.5pct, 0.1pct, and 0.1pct to 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively[2] - The unemployment rate for 2027 has been lowered by 0.1pct to 4.2%[2] - PCE inflation forecasts for Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 have been reduced by 0.1pct and 0.2pct to 2.9% and 2.4% respectively[2] FOMC Meeting Insights - The December FOMC meeting resulted in a 25bps rate cut, with a 9-3 vote, indicating a slight hawkish stance[4] - Six FOMC members opposed the rate cut, reflecting a more hawkish sentiment overall[4] - The Fed announced a "light expansion" of its balance sheet, purchasing $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills monthly[4] Market Reactions - Powell's dovish comments during the press conference led to a rise in gold, U.S. stocks, and commodities, while U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index fell[3] - The market is pricing in a 22% chance of a rate cut by January, 78% by April, and 221% by December 2026[5] Risks and Considerations - Risks include a faster-than-expected decline in U.S. employment and prolonged high interest rates potentially leading to liquidity crises[5] - Inflation risks are seen as significantly weakened, while GDP downside risks have eased[2]

官宣降息。 当地时间12月10日，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，从当前的3.75%—4%区间降至3.5%—3.75%区间。这是美联储连续第3次宣布降息，累计降 息幅度75个基点。 此前，由于联邦政府"停摆"，多个官方经济数据暂停发布，导致美联储缺少足够的信息对当前经济状况进行判断。但有数据显示，当前就业市场出现 降温迹象。美国劳工部12月9日发布的10月职位空缺和劳动力流动调查报告显示，10月就业职位空缺数量为767万个，略高于去年同期的761.5万个和今年9 月的765.8万个。同时，雇主招聘数量为514.9万个，低于今年9月的536.7万个和去年同期10月的535万个。当月，辞职数量为294.1万个，环比和同比均明显 减少。与此相对，10月雇主主动裁员和解职的数量为185.4万个，环比和同比均增长，达到2023年1月以来最高水平。 通胀方面，美联储偏好指标，个人消费支出（PCE）9月份同比上涨2.8%，略低于华尔街预测，但仍远高于美联储2%的目标。 值得关注的是，美联储货币政策委员会成员在投票中再次出现了巨大分歧。其中，支持本次货币政策行动的有主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔、副主席约翰·C· 威廉姆斯、迈克尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, amidst internal divisions within the FOMC regarding the direction of monetary policy [1][10]. Economic Outlook - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with job growth slowing and the unemployment rate slightly increasing as of September [3]. - The Fed has revised its economic growth forecast for this year upward by 0.1 percentage points to 1.7%, and for 2026 and 2027, the growth forecasts have been adjusted to 2.3% and 2.0% respectively [3]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the Fed projecting core PCE growth at 3.0% for 2025, down 0.1 percentage points from previous estimates, and overall PCE growth adjusted to 2.9% for this year [4]. Labor Market - The labor market shows resilience, with the Fed maintaining its unemployment rate projections at 4.5% for 2025 and 4.4% for 2026 [4]. - Recent data indicates a trend of low hiring and low layoffs, although there are signals of increasing layoff pressures, with announced layoffs exceeding 1.1 million as of November [11]. Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Fed has initiated a short-term Treasury bond purchase program to manage market liquidity, starting with $40 billion in purchases [2][8]. - The FOMC's internal divisions are evident, with differing opinions on future rate cuts, as some members advocate for maintaining rates while others support further cuts [6][12]. - Market expectations are increasingly aggressive, with a 72% probability of at least two rate cuts next year, reflecting uncertainty in the Fed's future policy direction [12].

近两次美联储FOMC声明措辞对比 官宣降息。 当地时间12月10日，美联储宣布下调基准利率25个基点，从当前的3.75%—4%区间降至3.5%—3.75%区间。这是美联储连续第3次宣布降息，累计降息幅 度75个基点。 值得关注的是，美联储货币政策委员会成员在投票中再次出现了巨大分歧。其中，支持本次货币政策行动的有主席杰罗姆·H·鲍威尔、副主席约翰·C·威廉 姆斯、迈克尔·S·巴尔、米歇尔·W·鲍曼、苏珊·M·柯林斯、丽莎·D·库克、菲利普·N·杰斐逊、阿尔贝托·G·穆萨莱姆以及克里斯托弗·J·沃勒；斯蒂芬·I·米兰则 希望降息50个基点；而奥斯坦·D·古尔斯比和杰弗里·R·施密德则投票希望基准利率不做调整。 这是美联储理事米兰连续第3次投反对票，他的任期将在明年1月到期。而施密德则连续第2次投反对票。3名委员投了"反对"票，这种情况自2019年9月以 来首次出现。 而备受关注的未来政策预测"点阵图"显示，美联储在2026年仅降息1次，2027年再降1次，之后联邦基金利率将达到约3%的长期目标。这些预测与9月更新 时无异，但图表反映了委员会内部关于利率走向的分歧。 除了利率决定，美联储还宣布将恢复购买国债。 在 ...

市场屏息以待的一夜刚刚过去。 北京时间12月11日凌晨，市场迎来了美联储年内最后一次利率决议：美联储如期降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调到3.50%至3.75%之间。这 是美联储今年继9月和10月各降息25个基点以来的第三次降息，也是自2024年9月美联储开启新一轮降息周期以来的第六次降息。 值得注意的是，此次会议罕见出现三张 "反对票"，暴露出美联储的内部分歧。这是自2019年以来，首次有三位官员在同一次议息会议上投下反对票。这 或意味着，降息不再是默认的常规操作，而是一个极端权衡。 不过，预期中的"鹰派"降息信号并未显露，令市场振奋。美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨1.05%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数涨0.67%。此外，美元指数 跌幅扩大，下破99关口，美债收益率小幅下行，白银顺势创下历史新高。 25个基点"收官"2025年降息 美联储出现6年以来最大内部分歧 北京时间12月11日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议后，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之间，符合 市场预期。 美联储年内降息就此收官。美联储在声明中表示，"现有指标显示，经济活动一直 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, with three dissenting votes, marking the first time since 2019 that such a number of dissenters has occurred [1][10]. Group 1: Decision and Voting - The latest meeting resulted in a 9 to 3 vote, indicating ongoing divisions within the committee [2][10]. - The dissenting votes have accumulated to eight over the last four meetings, which is equivalent to the total dissent from the previous 47 meetings [2][10]. - Stephen Milan has opposed the decision for the third consecutive time, advocating for a 50 basis point cut [2][10]. Group 2: Policy Statements - The statement reintroduced the consideration of the "magnitude and timing" of adjustments to the federal funds rate, a phrase not used since July [1][10]. - The Federal Reserve announced the initiation of Treasury bill purchases to maintain reserve levels [2][10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Projections - The "dot plot" indicates significant divergence among decision-makers, with a median forecast showing one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027 [2][10]. - Seven decision-makers prefer to keep rates unchanged throughout 2026, while eight support at least two rate cuts [2][10]. - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, which provided the basis for the recent rate cut [11]. Group 4: Recent Data and Adjustments - The committee acknowledges that employment growth may have been overstated by approximately 60,000 jobs in recent months [11]. - The Federal Reserve's commitment to achieving full employment and returning inflation to the 2% target remains firm [13]. Group 5: Interest Rate Adjustments - As of December 10, the federal funds rate target range has been lowered to 3.5% - 3.75% from the previous range of 3.75% - 4% [11][12]. - The committee will carefully evaluate subsequent data and changing forecasts when considering further adjustments to the federal funds rate [3][11]. Group 6: Long-term Rate Projections - The median projections for the federal funds rate at the end of each year are as follows: - 2025: 3.625% (range 3.375% to 3.875%) - 2026: 3.375% (range 2.125% to 3.875%) - 2027: 3.125% (range 2.375% to 3.875%) - 2028: 3.125% (range 2.625% to 3.875%) - Long-term: 3.000% (range 2.625% to 3.875%) [19].

来源：董秘第一圈 北京时间12月11日凌晨03:00，美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发布了最新的利率决议，宣布降息25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场"鹰派降息"预期。 决策者以9票赞成、3票反对通过此次降息决定，为六年来首次出现三张异议票。 这是美联储今年第三次降息，全年的累计降息幅度达到75个基点。也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 决议公布后，美股三大指数短线跳涨，现货黄金短线拉升20美元，美元指数短线走低10点。 截至收盘，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨1.05%，纳指涨0.33%，标普500指数涨0.68%。 随着连续第三次降息尘埃落定，市场焦点转向接下来美联储还剩多少降息空间。 备受关注的"点阵图"显示，决策者预计2026年只会再降息一次，2027年再降一次，然后利率将回到3% 的长期水平。 值得注意的是，在利率决议公布前夕，下任美联储主席热门人选、白宫经济顾问凯文·哈塞特再度"放 鸽"，强调美联储可能还需要采取更多降息行动，他们有充足空间下调利率，绝对可以降息50个基点甚 至更多。 此次政策决定发布前不久，美国总统特朗普表示已决定由谁接替将于明年5月任期 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate, reducing it from the range of 3.75%-4% to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut with a total reduction of 75 basis points [1] - The job market shows signs of cooling, with October job openings at 7.67 million, slightly above last year's 7.615 million, while hiring decreased to 5.149 million from 5.367 million in September [2] - The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose 2.8% year-over-year in September, slightly below Wall Street predictions but still above the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 2 - There was significant division among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the rate cut, with some members advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others preferred no change at all, marking the first time since September 2019 that three members voted against the decision [3] - The future policy projections indicate that the Fed plans to cut rates only once in 2026 and again in 2027, with a long-term target for the federal funds rate around 3% [3] - Following the rate cut announcement, U.S. stock markets experienced a short-term rally, with the Dow Jones up 0.92%, the S&P 500 up 0.45%, and the Nasdaq slightly up by 0.06% [3][4]