- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint In June 2023, the performance of ordinary stock mutual funds in China showed a significant upward trend, with 87% of the 1,026 funds reporting gains, highlighting a strong recovery in the market, particularly in technology and semiconductor sectors. Fund Performance - A total of 890 out of 1,026 ordinary stock mutual funds saw an increase in performance in June, with only 133 funds experiencing declines [1]. - The top performers included the China Europe High-end Equipment Stock Fund A and C, which achieved returns of 20.19% and 20.16% respectively [1]. - Other notable funds with over 18% gains included the Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry Stock Fund and the Xinhua Strategy Selected Stock Fund, focusing primarily on technology stocks [1][2]. Fund Manager Profiles - Fund managers of top-performing funds, such as Li Shuai of the China Europe High-end Equipment Fund, have extensive experience, with over 9 years in the industry [1]. - Zhao Qiang, managing the Xinhua Strategy Selected Fund, has a similar background, having held various positions in fund management for over 9 years [2]. Sector Focus - The funds that performed well predominantly invested in technology sectors, particularly in chips and semiconductors, with some exposure to traditional industries like automotive [1][2]. - The Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry Stock Fund's top holdings included major players like SMIC and Tencent [1]. Declining Funds - The funds that experienced declines were primarily focused on consumer stocks, with the Jiao Yin Consumer New Driver Stock Fund dropping by 4.47% in June [3]. - Other funds in the healthcare sector also saw slight declines after a period of growth, indicating a potential market correction [3]. Performance Metrics - The performance metrics for various funds indicated a clear divide between those focused on technology and those on consumer sectors, with technology funds showing robust growth [4][5]. - The overall market sentiment appears to favor technology investments, as evidenced by the significant gains in funds heavily weighted in this sector [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Demand for U.S. stocks is rising as concerns over geopolitical and trade tensions ease, indicating a broader market interest beyond just technology stocks [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Analysts note an increasing likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming months, contributing to the stock market's upward momentum [1] - The S&P 500 index saw a gain of over 4% in June, reflecting strong performance across various sectors [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Many industries are outperforming the market average, suggesting that the narrative surrounding U.S. stocks is no longer solely focused on technology [1]

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（97）期 发布日期：2025-06-03 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/5/30 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 726.00 | 726.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 焦炭 | 1,308.00 | 1,308.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,405.00 | 13,405.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 20号胶 | 11,865.00 | 11,865.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 塑料 | 6,960.00 | 6,960.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,875.00 | 6,875.00 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In 2025Q1, the overall performance of fixed - income + funds was mediocre, with a median yield of 0.29%. The scale of fixed - income + funds increased significantly, and their proportion in broad - based bond funds rose by 2 percentage points. The growth was mainly contributed by moderately convertible bond - enhanced and stock - enhanced products. High - performing products over - allocated technology stocks and manufacturing - related convertible bonds, and some leading products showed strong scale expansion capabilities [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025Q1 Fixed - income + Scale Proportion Significantly Rebounded - The performance of fixed - income + funds grew steadily in 2025Q1. The total scale increased to 138.0734 billion yuan, a quarter - on - quarter increase of 15.6029 billion yuan. The proportion in broad - based bond funds rose by 2 percentage points, the first significant rebound since 2022Q1, indicating market favor [2]. - The growth in scale was mainly contributed by moderately convertible bond - enhanced and stock - enhanced products. In 2025Q1, the scale of moderately convertible bond - enhanced, stock - enhanced, and convertible bond funds increased. The moderately convertible bond - enhanced scale increased by 9.4608 billion yuan, the stock - enhanced scale by 6.6139 billion yuan, and the convertible bond fund scale by 0.3438 billion yuan compared to 2024Q4 [2]. 3.2 High - performing Products Over - allocated Technology Stocks & Manufacturing - related Convertible Bonds 3.2.1 High - performing Funds' Convertible Bond Positions Were Highly Differentiated - Among stock - enhanced funds, high - performing products had an average yield of 1.54% in 2025Q1. Guotai Shuangli Bond had the highest yield of 5.49%, and Nongyin Ruikang 6 - month Holding had a yield of 2.52%. The average scale of high - performing stock - enhanced funds was 4.688 billion yuan, with 3 products exceeding 10 billion yuan [26]. - In terms of stock and convertible bond positions, the stock positions of high - performing stock - enhanced funds were mostly between 10% - 20%, with an average of 15.65%. The convertible bond positions varied greatly, with 3 products having over 10% and 7 products having less than 1% [27]. - Among convertible bond - enhanced funds, high - performing products had an average yield of 3.13% in 2025Q1, outperforming stock - enhanced products. Jinying Yuanfeng ranked first with 7.81%, followed by Nanfang Guangli Return with 6.29%. Some high - performing products also had relatively large scales [31]. - High - performing convertible bond - enhanced funds showed significant differentiation in stock and convertible bond allocation strategies. The average stock position was 10.70%, and the average convertible bond position was 52.16% [32]. 3.2.2 Asset Allocation of High - performing Funds: Over - allocation of Technology Stocks and Balanced Convertible Bonds - High - performing funds had a pure - bond position of 46.2%, a stock position of 14.5%, and a convertible bond position of 23.1%. Their high returns came from over - allocating technology stocks, reducing financial stock positions, and over - allocating manufacturing - related and balanced convertible bonds [37]. - In terms of equity asset industry distribution, high - performing funds over - allocated technology stocks by 7.2 percentage points, cycle and pharmaceutical stocks by 3.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively, and under - allocated financial stocks by 8.3 percentage points compared to the overall market [37]. - In terms of convertible bond industry distribution, high - performing funds over - allocated manufacturing - related convertible bonds. In terms of convertible bond types, they over - allocated balanced convertible bonds by 5.3 percentage points compared to the overall market [41]. 3.3 Leading Products Showed Strong Scale Expansion Capabilities - On average, 31.0% of stock - enhanced and 54.2% of convertible bond - enhanced funds achieved net scale growth. Some products had significant scale increases, such as Huaxia Wenxiang Zengli 6 - month Rolling in stock - enhanced funds and Zhongyin State - owned Enterprise Bond in convertible bond - enhanced funds [44]. - Many leading products had large scales. For example, E Fund Yuxiang Return in stock - enhanced funds and Invesco Great Wall Jingyi Shuangli in convertible bond - enhanced funds had large sizes [45]. - By fund company, China Europe Fund had the fastest - growing fixed - income + fund scale, with an increase of 15.461 billion yuan. After the scale changes, E Fund, Invesco Great Wall Fund, and Fullgoal Fund ranked in the top three in terms of the stock scale of fixed - income + products [48][50]. 3.4 Appendix 3.4.1 Fixed - income + Funds Increased Holdings of Financial Stocks, and the Duration of Pure Bonds Narrowed - In 2025Q1, the pure - bond position of fixed - income + funds rebounded, while the convertible bond position decreased. The proportion of pure bonds increased by 1.4 percentage points, stocks by 0.4 percentage points, and convertible bonds decreased by 1.6 percentage points quarter - on - quarter [53]. - In terms of equity holdings, the proportion of financial stocks increased by 2.2 percentage points, while cycle and manufacturing stocks decreased by 2.1 and 1.8 percentage points respectively compared to 2024Q4 [56]. - In terms of convertible bond holdings, fixed - income + funds increased holdings of manufacturing and cycle convertible bonds and decreased holdings of financial convertible bonds. The proportion of balanced convertible bonds increased by 5.4 percentage points [59][60]. - In terms of pure - bond holdings, the position of financial bonds increased, while the positions of interest - rate and credit bonds decreased. The weighted average duration of pure bonds narrowed by 0.88 years quarter - on - quarter [65]. 3.4.2 Introduction to Fund Classification Method - The classification is mainly based on the average stock investment ratio, average convertible bond investment ratio, and other data. For funds that can invest in stocks, those with an average stock investment ratio greater than 20% are excluded, and different types of fixed - income + and pure - bond funds are classified according to specific rules [70]. - For funds that cannot buy stocks, they are classified into pure - bond and convertible bond - enhanced funds based on the average convertible bond investment ratio [71]. - Funds with "convertible bond" in their names are classified as convertible bond funds [72].

先说个资金面的大事。 中国公募基金行业 新一轮 变革 重头戏来了，首批浮动费率基金正式获批发行。 这次的变革核心在哪呢？ 简单来说，就是基金公司要凭自己真本事赚钱了，只有给客户创造的收益高，才有资格多拿管理费。 至于那些创造不了收益的，不好意思，只能拿到最低的费率水平。 我看了具体的动态调整的标准，还挺有意思的。 浮动费率，是根据基民持有的第一年业绩，从第二年开始，把管理费分为 基准、升档、降档 三个标准。 这样来看，还是挺严的，而对做不过指数的惩罚比对奖励要狠。 这就意味着，天然要求公募基金更贴着指数做，长期看，沪深300权重股为代表的中盘和大盘股自然会受 到更多的青睐，也能一定程度上扭转炒小炒烂的市场风气。 接下来公募基金行业的玩法就开始转变了，那些发被动ETF基金还能活的相对滋润，而之前光在营销上面 卷，没有赚钱能力的主动管理基金就要比较难了。 赚不到钱，自然就会被市场淘汰，这和新能源车的淘汰赛本质上是一回事，公募基金行业的新一轮大洗牌 开始了。 今天板块涨得最好的是珠宝首饰。 | 持有时间 | 管理费(年费率) | | --- | --- | | 0-1年 | 1.20%/年 持有期间年化收益率(R) ...

Core Viewpoint - DeepSeek is expected to release its R2 model, but as of now, only a minor upgrade to the R1 model has been announced, leading to speculation about the company's future impact on the tech stock market [1][3]. Group 1: DeepSeek Model Updates - DeepSeek has completed a minor version upgrade of the R1 model, which can now be tested on its official website, app, and mini-programs, while the API interface remains unchanged [1]. - The R1 model, released in January, outperformed Western competitors on several standardized metrics and was developed at a cost of only a few million dollars, causing a significant drop in global tech stocks [2]. - There are rumors that the upcoming R2 model may have a staggering parameter scale of 1.2 trillion, nearly double that of the R1 model's 671 billion parameters, but these claims have not been officially confirmed [3]. Group 2: Industry Adoption and Expansion - Despite a decline in DeepSeek's popularity, its technology is being adopted across various sectors, including education and government services, with notable implementations in Tibet and by companies like Luckin Coffee [4]. - The launch of the "藏大智言" DeepSeek platform by Tibet University and the deployment of DeepSeek's model in local government services highlight its expanding influence [4]. - Companies like Zhongke Jiangnan are utilizing DeepSeek to develop AI assistants for financial services, indicating a growing trend of integrating AI into business operations [4]. Group 3: Broader Implications and Market Trends - DeepSeek's advancements are seen as a significant milestone in achieving efficient computation and low-cost training, potentially reshaping the global AI competitive landscape [5]. - The company’s strategy of open-source and cost-effective solutions aims to democratize technology and challenge the existing Western dominance in AI [5]. - Analysts suggest that sectors such as commercial aerospace, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy may become new market engines due to technological breakthroughs and policy support, with DeepSeek's developments playing a crucial role [6].

在行业调整期能够保持较好成长性的优质公司，未来有着更大的成长空间。 近期A股市场主要聚焦在两大主题，一是微盘股的抱团飙升，相关指数更是创出历史新高；二是红利股的稳定上涨。 今天（5月21日）早盘市场有所变化，微盘股出现一定调整，主要是因为ST板块的龙头*ST宇顺被停牌核查。红利板块表现较好，煤炭、保险、石 油等板块涨幅居前。 值得一提的是，市场较为关注的科技股近期整体表现不佳，结构性行情较为突出，比如这几天表现较好的创新药板块。另外，赛道股的核心—— 新能源龙头股有所表现，比亚迪、宁德时代两大龙头港股均创出历史新高。 比亚迪港股再创历史新高 早盘，比亚迪AH股均表现亮眼。其中A股再度突破400元/股，盘中创下404元/股的历史新高；港股一度大涨超4%并首次突破460港元/股，创出历史 新高，盘中最高价超464港元/股。截至5月20日收盘，比亚迪A股年内累计上涨近40%，港股累计涨幅接近67%。 随着股价的上涨，比亚迪的市值也水涨船高。截至5月20日收盘，该股总市值超过1.2万亿元，位居A股第八位。比亚迪作为知名大白马，曾以巴菲 特重仓而为大家所知。不过，巴菲特已减仓比亚迪港股，平均减持价格在250港元/股左右 ...

【导读】昨日股票ETF市场净流出资金64亿元，宽基ETF净流出居前 昨日（5月15日），三大股指收跌，当日股票ETF（含跨境ETF，下同）市场净流出资金约64亿元。其 中，宽基ETF净流出居前。 股票ETF单日净流出64亿元 数据显示，截至5月15日，全市场1089只股票ETF总规模达3.54万亿元。当日股票ETF市场总份额减少 41.33亿份，按照成交均价测算，当日净流出资金约为63.74亿元。 细分品类中，宽基ETF净流出居前，净流出53.37亿元。规模变化方面，宽基ETF规模下降296.85亿元。 具体到指数维度，5月15日沪深300指数单日净流出居前，达17.91亿元。 从单只基金看，上证50ETF单日净流出居前，达10.44亿元。沪深300ETF、中证A500ETF龙头等核心宽 基指数ETF均出现一定资金净流出。 业内表示，近期场内资金情绪虽有改善但在多重因素扰动下整体依然偏谨慎，因此一些资金开始对宽基 指数"获利了结"。 | | | | 5月15日股票ETF资金净流出排行 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排行 | 证券简称 ...

Macro Economic Analysis - The Chinese economy showed better-than-expected performance in Q1 2025, indicating a strong start to the year [1] - Policy measures are supporting commodity inflation, as reflected in the March price data [1] Trade Data Insights - The "export rush" is nearing its end, as indicated by the March import and export data [2] - The U.S. CPI inflation data for March reflects a brief period of calm in the overseas macroeconomic environment [2] Capital Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a strong and volatile phase, suggesting opportunities for long-term bond fund investments [3] - U.S. tech stocks have faced significant setbacks, raising questions about the market's bottom [3] - Tariff pressures are causing dramatic fluctuations in both stock and bond markets [3] Industry Analysis - The pharmaceutical industry is accelerating its digital transformation, with AI technology playing a crucial role in this new journey [5] - Positive policy measures are contributing to stability in the A-share market [5] - Tariff expectations are being driven by policy responses, highlighting the need to monitor these developments [5] - Market volatility continues as the impact of tariffs temporarily eases [5] Weekly Outlook - Recent tariff measures have exceeded expectations, leading to a significant rise in risk-averse sentiment [6]