周末消息面偏暖，而本周又有两大重要会议值得期许，今天市场算是高开高走，虽然开盘之后半小时有一定的回踩，甚至午后2点也有一次回撤，但总体 表现稍好，算是延续了上周五的升势。当然，也略让人担心会不会重演上周的一五强、二三四弱的苦情戏。七祖的看法是，暂时看多，基本上指数到前高 附近就会再遇大压力。 今天市场有三大特征 ，第一是放量，终于重归20,000亿，这是11月13号以来的首次重回20,000亿。前些天最低达到了1.55万亿，也是8月以来的地量。能够 放量，说明人气活跃，特别是今天放量上涨，这是11月初以来的积极现象。 第二是主线鲜明，科技股再度霸榜，科技赛道的TMT板块重新走强，特别是 三季度最强势的CPO板块，今天迎来一根创历史新高的大阳线，创出9月11号以来的单日最大涨幅，激活了大家对AI硬件产业链的信心。 第三是市场多主线齐头并进，并没有出现特别明显的跷跷板效应，虽然有沪弱深强的格局，虽然总体各大板块都有走强的机会，想做科技股的继续做科 技。商业航天也还维持强势，存储芯片表现较好。光通信板块一骑绝尘，。这就是放量的好处，所以资金方方面面都能照顾到，如果明后天市场还能放 量，那么这里就能够维系强势，一旦缩 ...

12月8日，A股量价齐升，日成交额重返2万亿元上方，资金偏爱科技股，创业板指大涨2.6%，超3400只个股收涨。其 中，"牛市旗手"券商板块回暖，共封装光学（CPO）等科技细分赛道飙升，"易中天"三只个股成交火爆。 受访人士表示，年末通常攻势偏弱，但宏观数据、微观流动性与产业趋势多方共振，市场动能仍有支撑，A股上行有 望延续。不过，结构性分化加剧，后续须紧盯政策落地节奏及增量资金能否持续进场。 日成交额突破2万亿元 交易量能明显放量，今日成交额增至2.05万亿元，上个交易日成交额为1.74万亿元，一扫上周缩量阴跌的颓势；杠杆 资金方面，截至12月5日，沪深京两融余额共计2.48万亿元。 盘面上主线清晰，科技股强势。CPO概念大涨近6%，半导体、电子元件、电子设备制造、光电子器件、PCB等涨势 喜人。不过，白酒、饮料、石油天然气、白色家电、煤炭、电力等传统股微跌。 | | 东财概念指數 | | | | 东财行业指数 | | | | A股市场模心指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "weaker than the market" investment rating for the U.S. stock market [4] Core Views - The market is showing a slowdown in price increases with a deepening industry divergence, as evidenced by the S&P 500's 0.3% increase and the Nasdaq's 1.0% increase this week [1] - The focus of capital flows is shifting towards technology, with significant inflows into software and services, automotive, and semiconductor sectors [2] - Earnings expectations for most industries are being revised upwards, indicating a generally stable outlook despite some sectors facing downward adjustments [3] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The S&P 500 rose by 0.3%, while the Nasdaq increased by 1.0% this week, reflecting a mixed performance across sectors [1] - Small-cap growth stocks outperformed small-cap value stocks, and large-cap growth stocks outperformed large-cap value stocks [1] 2. Capital Flows - Estimated capital inflow for S&P 500 constituents was +$71.8 billion this week, down from +$214.0 billion the previous week [2] - Major inflows were seen in software and services (+$20.7 billion), automotive (+$20.6 billion), and semiconductor products (+$20.2 billion) [2] - Significant outflows occurred in utilities (-$4.6 billion) and pharmaceuticals (-$4.2 billion) [2] 3. Earnings Forecast - The dynamic future 12-month EPS expectation for S&P 500 constituents was adjusted upwards by 0.3% this week, consistent with the previous week's adjustment [3] - 22 industries saw upward revisions in earnings expectations, with notable increases in semiconductor products (+0.9%) and automotive (+0.5%) [3] - The energy sector experienced a slight downward adjustment of -0.1% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market in China experienced a significant net inflow of over 4.3 billion yuan on December 4, with a cumulative increase of 10.8 billion yuan over the past three days, indicating a strong interest in broad-based ETFs despite market volatility [2][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - On December 4, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.06% and the ChiNext Index up over 1% [2]. - The stock ETF market saw a total increase of 1.789 billion shares, with a net inflow of 43.15 billion yuan, primarily driven by broad-based ETFs and Hong Kong market ETFs [5]. - The total scale of all stock ETFs in the market reached 4.56 trillion yuan as of December 4 [4]. Group 2: Fund Inflows - The net inflow for broad-based ETFs was 33.54 billion yuan, while Hong Kong market ETFs saw a net inflow of 12.2 billion yuan [5]. - The CSI A500 Index ETF led the inflows with 9.21 billion yuan, while the Shanghai market corporate bond index saw the largest outflow of 5.01 billion yuan [6]. - Recent inflows into the Hang Seng Technology Index exceeded 1.8 billion yuan, and the SGE Gold 9999 Index saw inflows of over 1.1 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Top Performing ETFs - The top ETFs by net inflow included the Chinese Internet ETF with 5.33 billion yuan, the CSI A500 ETF with 4.56 billion yuan, and the SSE 50 ETF with 4.37 billion yuan [8]. - Notable inflows were also observed in the STAR Market ETF and the CSI 1000 ETF, with net inflows of 3.89 billion yuan and 2.99 billion yuan, respectively [8]. Group 4: Fund Outflows - The industry-themed ETFs experienced significant outflows, totaling 12.02 billion yuan, with the Bank ETF and Gold Stock ETF each seeing outflows exceeding 3 billion yuan [12][13]. - Other ETFs with notable outflows included the Chemical ETF and the Military Industry Leader ETF, both exceeding 2 billion yuan in outflows [13]. Group 5: Market Sentiment - Despite some industry-themed ETFs experiencing outflows, institutions remain optimistic about structural opportunities in the A-share market, anticipating clearer policy and fundamental expectations in December [15]. - Analysts suggest focusing on growth sectors such as AI, electric new energy, and industrial metals, while also considering potential policy-driven opportunities in sectors like hotels, logistics, and aviation as the year-end approaches [15].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher on December 4, with the Hang Seng Index at 25,804.01 points, up 43.28 points, a gain of 0.17% [10] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reported 5,552.43 points, increasing by 17.51 points, a rise of 0.32% [12] Company News - Junsheng Electronics (HK00699) has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, effective December 4, 2025, following the end of its price stabilization period in the Hong Kong market and after being listed for 10 trading days [5][14] - Junsheng Electronics' H-shares were listed on November 6 at an issue price of HKD 22, but fell to a low of HKD 14.28 before recovering to HKD 18.22 at the time of reporting [5][14] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed mixed results, with Meituan rising over 1% and Alibaba declining by 0.33% [7][15] - The innovative drug sector opened higher, with Gilead Sciences rising over 5% [7][15] - The non-ferrous metals sector saw most stocks increase, with Chalco International up over 7%, Zijin Mining and Minmetals Resources up over 4%, and Jiangxi Copper up over 3% [7][15] Market Outlook - Brokerage firms remain optimistic about the medium to long-term prospects of the Hong Kong stock market despite short-term volatility [8][15] - Short-term opportunities are seen in high dividend defensive sectors and areas supported by policy expectations [8][15] - Long-term investments are recommended in reasonably valued and fundamentally sound technology stocks, as well as potentially undervalued consumer and pharmaceutical sectors [8][15] - Positive signals to watch for include expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may improve market liquidity, along with continued inflows of southbound capital providing support [8][15]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 11月28日，2025分析师大会暨第七届新浪财经"金麒麟"最佳分析师颁奖盛典隆重召开。浙商证券首席经 济学家、研究所联席所长李超团队获得宏观经济第一名。 "直挂云帆济沧海"，现场，李超用这句充满气势的表述，为2026年中国经济与资本市场定下乐观基调。 李超结合其首创的四层次分析框架，从宏观经济肌理、增长动力到市场机遇进行了系统解读，为投资者 勾勒出"十五五"开局之年的发展蓝图。 专题：2025分析师大会：资本市场"奥斯卡"！机构称A股迎全球资本涌入的大牛市 在他看来，市场的核心驱动力源自利率下行，2025年以来市场信心的持续提升，为流动性向资本市场的 传导扫清了障碍。随着2026年信心修复趋势的延续，利率下行的估值驱动效应将充分显现。 这一逻辑与国际市场经验高度契合。美国1984-2020年长达35年的利率下行周期中，股债双牛成为常 态，即便在经济复苏脆弱阶段，宽松货币环境仍支撑股市走高；日本2013-2019年实施大规模QE政策 后，也实现了利率下行背景下的股债双牛。中国当前的利率环境与信心修复节奏，正为复制这一逻辑创 造条件。 投资 ...

| 第二部分 月行情复盘 | 11 | 3 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 一、股票市场——先抑后扬，再创新高 | | | 3 | | | 二、股指期货——贴水周期性扩大，成交持仓下降 | | | 4 | | | 第三部分 后市展望及投资策略 | | 7 | | | | 一、科技股将再成焦点 | | 7 | | | | 二、日历效应与年末资金 | | 9 | | | | 三、后市策略 | | 10 | | | | 免责声明 | | | | 11 | 股指期货研发报告 股指期货 11 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 四千关口需要整固 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 1.单边：高位震荡，波动操作。 2.套利：多 IM\IC 主力合约+空 ETF。 3.期权：双买策略。 风险提示：经济复苏不及预期、美股人工智能泡沫破灭，资金面变化。 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：孙锋 电 话：021-65789277 邮 箱： sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F0211891 投资咨询资格证号：F0000 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1. Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes | Asset Class | Sub - variety | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Commodities | Iron ore | 785.50 | 1.68% | | | Corn | 2195.00 | 0.46% | | | Rebar | 3057.00 | 0.13% | | | PTA | 4666.00 | - 0.72% | | | Palm oil | 8550.00 | - 1.09% | | | Polysilicon | 53360.00 | - 1.27% | | | Copper | 85660.00 | - 1.43% | | | Crude oil | 447.40 | - 2.19% | | | Aluminum | 21340.00 | - 2.29% | | | Methanol | 2004.00 | - 2.48% | | | Soybean meal | 3012.00 | - 2.59% | | | Gold | 926.94 | - 2.75% | | | Ethylene glycol | 3808.00 | - 2.91% | | | PVC | 4456.00 | - 3.30% | | | Live pigs | 11350.00 | - 3.61% | | | Glass | 987.00 | - 4.36% | | | Silver | 11680.00 | - 5.62% | | | Coking coal | 1103.00 | - 7.47% | 2.2. Stock Indexes and Weekly Changes | Stock Index | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai 50 | 2955.85 | - 2.72% | | CSI 300 | 4453.61 | - 3.77% | | CSI 500 | 6817.41 | - 5.78% | | FTSE 100 | 9539.71 | - 1.64% | | S&P 500 | 6602.99 | - 1.95% | | France CAC40 | 7982.65 | - 2.29% | | NASDAQ Index | 22273.08 | - 2.74% | | Nikkei 225 | 48625.88 | - 3.48% | | Hang Seng Index | 25220.02 | - 5.09% | 2.3. Bonds and Weekly Changes | Bond | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.59 | + 0.62bp | | 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.82 | + 0.14bp | | 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond | 1.43 | - 0.45bp | 2.4. Foreign Exchange and Weekly Changes | Foreign Exchange | Closing Price (2025/11/21) | Weekly Change (11/17 - 11/21) | | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 100.15 | + 0.87% | | US Dollar Intermediate Price | 7.09 | + 0.07% | | Euro - US Dollar | 1.15 | - 0.93% | [2] 3. Commodity Views 3.1. Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy View: 3 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Nvidia's better - than - expected performance eases AI bubble concerns; Fed officials' remarks boost rate - cut expectations; loose expectations remain, and the stock index may stage a phased recovery; significant short - term decline with strong downside support. - Bearish Logic: Fed's hawkish stance causes liquidity expectations to fluctuate; rising US Dollar Index suppresses global risk appetite; AI bubble controversy affects tech stocks; fading speculative sentiment leads to reduced trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy View: 1 out of 7 institutions is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Weak fundamental data and insufficient domestic demand support loose expectations; central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading signals policy support; medium - to - long - term allocation demand pulls interest rates down; limited incremental policies at the end of the year. - Bearish Logic: Low expectation of further rate cuts, lack of upward momentum; tight external market liquidity affects the bond market; new redemption rules suppress the bond market, especially 30 - year bonds [4]. 3.2. Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: OPEC + suspends production increase, tightening supply expectations; northern hemisphere's heating season boosts demand; geopolitical risks in South America remain; short - term disruption of Libyan exports; Fed officials' calming remarks boost rate - cut expectations; potential stabilization after short - term oversold. - Bearish Logic: Persistent global supply surplus and inventory accumulation; fluctuating Fed rate - cut expectations and tight liquidity; overall slowdown in fourth - quarter demand; significant decline in geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3. Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Malaysia enters the production - reduction season, easing supply pressure; India's import profit recovery may increase procurement; Indonesia's B50 policy boosts long - term biodiesel demand; widening international soybean - palm oil price difference makes palm oil more cost - effective. - Bearish Logic: US cancellation of relevant energy offices is negative for biodiesel policies; weak Malaysian palm oil exports in November; large domestic inventory accumulation; winter consumption off - season and expected inventory build - up [5]. 3.4. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Low inventory provides price support; limited supply increase expected in 2026, maintaining a tight supply - demand balance; emerging sectors like energy storage drive long - term aluminum consumption. - Bearish Logic: AI bubble concerns affect metal performance; cooling Fed rate - cut expectations pressure metal prices; potential decline in photovoltaic production may suppress aluminum consumption; high prices squeeze processing profits; industry off - season affects demand and开工 [6]. 3.5. Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Potential winter maintenance in Iran may reduce imports; attention to year - end maintenance of southwest gas - based producers; increased losses in coal - to - methanol production may force a reduction in operating loads; low valuation limits downside space. - Bearish Logic: Weakening macro - drivers lead to trading of weak fundamentals; high import arrivals and expected port inventory build - up; compressed MTO profits reduce methanol procurement; weakening coal - based cost support [6]. 3.6. Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy View: 2 out of 8 institutions are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Fed officials' dovish signals boost rate - cut expectations; geopolitical and policy uncertainties increase gold's safe - haven appeal; US debt credit issues weaken long - term US dollar confidence; global central banks' continuous gold purchases support long - term demand. - Bearish Logic: Large internal differences within the Fed lead to unclear policy guidance; better - than - expected non - farm payrolls strengthen the hawkish stance; improving US dollar liquidity may increase market risk appetite [7]. 3.7. Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy View: 0 out of 7 institutions are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish Logic: Tight supply expectations of Australian coal may support import costs; potential decline in production after year - end production targets are met; increased demand from winter heating. - Bearish Logic: Supply - guarantee policies make the market cautious; increased steel mill losses lead to reduced hot metal production; significant increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance; more online auction failures indicate weak demand; high coking coal inventory in coke enterprises reduces restocking willingness [7].

Market Overview - The market is expected to experience a narrow range of fluctuations and upward movement in December, as the recent short-term adjustments have been deemed excessive and require time for recovery [1][9]. U.S. Stock Market Performance - On the previous trading day, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.43%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.91%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.67% [3]. - Notable movements in large tech stocks included Meta rising by 3.78%, Microsoft by 0.63%, Amazon by 1.50%, Apple by 0.38%, and Tesla by 0.39%, while Nvidia fell by 2.59% [3]. - The retail sector showed strong performance, with Kohl's surging by 42.53% and Abercrombie & Fitch soaring by 37.54% due to raised full-year profit forecasts [3]. Commodity Market - International oil prices declined, with light crude oil futures for January delivery falling by $0.89 to settle at $57.95 per barrel, a decrease of 1.51% [3]. - Spot gold prices slightly decreased by 0.14%, trading at $4130.59 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures rose by 0.81% to $4127.20 per ounce [4]. Corporate Developments - Alibaba reported a revenue of 247.8 billion yuan for Q2 of fiscal year 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [8]. - NIO's third-quarter losses narrowed to 3.48 billion yuan [8]. - Century Huatong secured a commitment letter for a stock repurchase loan from China Merchants Bank, not exceeding 900 million yuan [8]. - Huayou Cobalt signed a supply agreement for ultra-high nickel ternary cathode materials with EVE Energy [8]. Technology and Innovation - The National Space Administration of China released an action plan for the high-quality and safe development of the commercial space industry from 2025 to 2027, aiming for significant growth and enhanced innovation capabilities [5]. - The Ministry of Science and Technology emphasized the need for high-quality technological supply to lead the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on key core technology breakthroughs [6]. - The U.S. White House announced the "Genesis Project," a new national initiative aimed at transforming scientific research through artificial intelligence [7].

钛媒体App 11月25日消息，德意志银行策略师称，AI泡沫之忧引发股市全线下跌的可能性不大，上周的 回调更像是"极端仓位解除"。包括Maximilian Uleer和Carolin Raab的团队在报告中指出，诸如投资循环 或AI变现疑虑等担忧仍将持续存在，但这些问题似乎都不紧迫。科技股七巨头盈利预期的调整方向是 积极的，如果前景变差，它们将有能力调整资本支出。如果泡沫担忧持续存在，美联储还有进一步降息 的选择权。（科股宝播报） ...