Manufacturing Sector - December manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1, up 0.9 from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery above the seasonal level[1] - The production index rose to 51.7, an increase of 1.7, while the new orders index improved to 50.8, up 1.6[1] - The increase in manufacturing PMI is attributed to the implementation of the "two 500 billion" growth stabilization policies and year-end demand release[1] Service Sector - December service PMI recorded at 49.7, a slight increase of 0.2, but still below the neutral level of 50[1] - Consumer-related services remain weak due to seasonal effects, with retail, accommodation, and entertainment sectors below 50[1] - Financial activities continue to be robust, providing essential support for year-end economic performance[1] Construction Sector - December construction PMI rose to 52.8, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, marking a significant recovery after four months below 50[1] - The acceleration in construction activity is linked to increased investment in affordable housing and infrastructure projects[1] - Construction firms maintain optimistic market expectations, with the business expectation index remaining above 57 for two consecutive months[1] Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic environment is characterized by a year-end push across sectors, supported by policy implementation and capital investment[1] - The manufacturing sector's recovery in December is seen as a corrective rebound after a weaker performance in November[1] - Anticipated consumer demand during the upcoming New Year and Spring Festival is expected to boost service sector performance in early next year[1]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - In December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking the first time it has entered the expansion zone since April [8] - The production index reached 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points, and the new orders index increased to 50.8%, up 1.6 percentage points, indicating significant improvement in manufacturing demand [8] - The new export orders index also improved to 49.0%, up 1.4 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in external demand [8] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points, returning to the expansion zone [10] - The service sector's business activity index was at 49.7%, indicating it remains in the contraction zone despite a slight increase [11] - The construction sector showed improvement with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, attributed to favorable weather and policy-driven infrastructure investments [12] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic activity in December showed signs of recovery, with both domestic and external demand improving due to effective growth stabilization policies [13] - The price indices showed mixed results, with the main raw material purchase price index decreasing by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, indicating potential for improved corporate profits [9] - Looking ahead, the manufacturing PMI is expected to remain in the expansion zone into early 2026, supported by ongoing growth policies and a recovering market demand [13][14]

证券研究报告—宏观研究报告 撰写日期：2025 年 12 月 31 日 景气重返扩张区间 ——12 月 PMI 数据点评 2025 年 12 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.1%，较上月上升 0.9 个百分点，为 2025 年 4 月以来首次进入扩张区间，显示我国经济景气水平总体回升。从 分项指数看，产需两端同步改善，呈现积极态势。生产指数升至 51.7%，新 订单指数达 50.8%，为 2025 年 7 月以来首次突破荣枯线。产需缺口进一步 收窄，或反映国内市场需求逐步回暖，企业生产意愿随之增强。采购量指数 同步进入扩张区间，反映企业补库意愿有所提升。此外，新出口订单指数延 续回升，反映外贸环境进一步改善。价格端呈现回升态势，主要原材料购进 价格指数连续 6 个月处于扩张区间，表明原材料价格总体水平持续上升。 受原材料价格上涨和需求趋稳的双重带动，出厂价格指数回升至 48.9%，尽 管仍低于临界点，但降势持续收窄，制造业企业盈利空间或有望逐步改善。 供应商配送时间指数延续上升，反映原材料供应商交货效率略有提升，供应 链运行更加顺畅，为生产稳定提供了保障。从企业规模看，大型企业 PMI 重 返扩张区间，成为制造 ...

Economic Indicators - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from November, marking the first return to expansion since April[1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for December was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from November, with the construction index at 52.8%, rising 3.2 percentage points[1] - The comprehensive PMI output index increased by 1.0 percentage point to 50.7% in December[1] Policy Impact - The recovery in market demand is attributed to effective growth stabilization policies, including the introduction of two 500 billion yuan policies, which have positively impacted infrastructure and manufacturing investments[2] - The issuance of an additional 500 billion yuan in special bonds is expected to provide 200 billion yuan in new funding for project construction, further stimulating domestic demand[2] Sector Performance - The manufacturing new orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, driven by strong market demand and resilient export conditions, with the new export orders index increasing by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%[2] - The production index within the manufacturing PMI increased by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, contributing significantly to the overall PMI rise[3] - The construction PMI returned to expansion at 52.8%, primarily due to the impact of new policy financial tools and favorable weather conditions in southern provinces[5] Challenges and Outlook - The service sector PMI remained in contraction at 49.7%, despite a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing weak consumer demand, particularly in retail and dining sectors[4][5] - The overall economic outlook suggests continued support from growth stabilization policies, but challenges remain due to high tariffs affecting global trade and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6]

招商证券指出，钢铁行业近期受产能调控与环保政策趋严影响，生产节奏放缓，供给总量趋紧。展望后 市，"稳增长"政策逐步推进，但短期供给仍大于需求，价格向上空间和弹性的关键取决于基建和制造业 的修复斜率。普钢方面，12月12日商务部发布公告对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理，自2026年1月1 日起实行，这将进一步影响行业供需格局。 钢铁ETF（515210）跟踪的是中证钢铁指数（930606），该指数从沪深市场中选取归属于钢铁行业的上 市公司证券作为样本，以反映钢铁行业整体表现。指数成分股覆盖普钢、特钢等细分领域，具有典型的 周期性特征，其走势与宏观经济景气度高度关联。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 ...

Market Performance - The steel sector increased by 3.42% this week, outperforming the broader market [1][2] - The special steel segment rose by 4.80%, long products by 1.27%, and flat products by 1.94% [1][2] - Iron ore segment surged by 10.15%, steel consumables by 2.94%, and trade circulation by 4.33% [1][2] Supply Situation - As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 84.9%, up by 0.01 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.2%, down by 1.12 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The output of five major steel products was 6.92 million tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons week-on-week [2] - Daily average pig iron output was 2.2658 million tons, up by 0.03 million tons week-on-week, but down by 28,300 tons year-on-year [2][5] Demand Situation - Consumption of five major steel products was 8.336 million tons, down by 16,700 tons week-on-week [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 95,000 tons, down by 4.3% week-on-week [2] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products was 8.726 million tons, down by 339,100 tons week-on-week [3] - Factory inventory was 3.854 million tons, down by 28,800 tons week-on-week [3] Price and Profit - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,439.2 yuan/ton, down by 9.57 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,571.8 yuan/ton, up by 1.81 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 50 yuan/ton, up by 8.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] - The profit for electric furnace construction steel was -4 yuan/ton, up by 3.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [3] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) was 800 yuan/ton, up by 2.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [4] - The price for main coking coal remained stable at 1,700 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 25.18 days, down by 0.2 days week-on-week [4] Investment Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain a stable supply-demand situation despite current challenges [6][7] - The demand for steel is anticipated to improve marginally due to government "stability growth" policies supporting real estate and infrastructure [6][7] - Companies with high gross margins and strong cost control are expected to see valuation recovery opportunities [7] - Recommended companies include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

银河证券认为，在供给侧"反内卷"持续推进的背景下，钢铁行业产能持续向优质龙头集中；从需求侧 看，特钢有望受益于制造业升级和AI转型。中长期来看，普钢龙头企业有望受益于行业供需格局的改 善。 国家综合整治钢铁行业"内卷式"竞争的一系列举措，加快落地。随着钢铁产品出口许可证管理即将实 施，国内钢铁市场结构性变化会进一步加快。过去5年，随着地产退潮，建筑用钢需求下滑，而以新能 源汽车为代表的制造业需求抬升，钢铁高质量发展的新叙事已经展开。 信达证券认为，虽然钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润整体下行，但伴随系列"稳增 长"政策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望在房地产筑底企稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造业持续发展、钢铁 出口高位等支撑下保持平稳甚至边际略增，反观平控政策预期下钢铁供给总量趋紧且产业集中度持续趋 强，钢铁行业供需总体形势有望维持平稳。与此同时，经济高质量发展和新质生产力宏观趋势下，特别 是受益于能源周期、国产替代、高端装备制造的高壁垒高附加值的高端钢材有望充分受益。总体上，未 来钢铁行业产业格局有望稳中趋好，叠加当前部分公司已经处于价值低估区域，现阶段仍具结构性投资 机遇，尤其是拥有较高毛利率水平的优 ...

宏观要闻 机构观点 马建堂：到2035年中国人均GDP达到2.3万美元完全有可能 深圳市委金融办日前召开全体大会。会议强调，继续有力有序有效防范化解各类金融风险，严控增量、妥处存量、严防"爆雷"。坚持"一企一策"深入推进中 小金融机构改革化险。稳妥做好重点企业风险处置，加快推动重点房企涉众理财风险出清。严厉打击非法金融活动，加强跨部门协作联动，强化"线上+线 下"的"预警-识别-快速处置"链条。 在岸、离岸人民币对美元刷新逾一年来新高 离岸人民币对美元汇率今日盘中一度升至7.04，创2024年10月4日以来新高；在岸人民币对美元汇率盘中最高升至7.04，创下2024年10月8日以来新高。 发改委强调大力提升居民消费意愿 国家发展和改革委员会党组在《求是》杂志撰文，强调要坚定实施扩大内需战略，包括提升居民消费意愿和增强居民消费能力，积极拓展有效投资空间等。 发改委表示，接下来要着力释放居民消费潜力。大力提升居民消费意愿。深入实施提振消费专项行动。加力稳定大宗消费，实施好消费品以旧换新政策。 深圳将加快推动重点房企涉众理财风险出清 国务院发展研究中心原党组书记马建堂在周二的"国是论坛2025年会"上表示，2022 ...

前段时间，由于美联储的降息等因素，一度驱动着各路资金对年底的全球资本市场的流动性宽松寄予了 厚望。但从本周以来的走势来看，流动性宽松的预期基础似乎正在瓦解。比如说美国联储隔夜逆回购 （ONRRP）余额仍处于枯竭状态，上周五只有8亿美元左右，这是美元短线流动性的蓄水池，也是全球 流动性的总蓄水池。因此，这个指标不佳，往往意味着美元流动性收紧，也意味着全球流动性收紧。 因此，这可能既是美股在近期再度疲态的诱因之一，也是周二亚太股市继续调整的诱因之一。如此就使 得A股市场各路资金再度重新评估全球流动性，随之也在重构风险偏好，毕竟在前段时间的风险偏好主 要是建立在美联储降息后全球流动性宽松的基础之上。 来源：智通财经 周二A股市场出现了弱势态势。其中，周一相对强硬的资源主线、核聚变板块等强势股出现了补跌态 势，从而挫伤了市场补仓意愿，主要股指相继走低。不过，人民币汇率仍然坚挺，这与以A股、港股为 代表的人民币资产的疲态走势形成背离态势，这或将说明A股后续调整空间不宜过于夸大。 重构风险偏好 与此同时，A股自身的风险偏好似乎也在重构。在前段时间，因为逆周期调整、去库存等表述一度让市 场参与者对未来的稳增长措施有了新的期 ...

11 月经济数据整体表现和此前几个月的差异并不大：总量层面 走弱，供强需弱的结构性问题仍然存在。具体来看：1）9-10 月 公布的增量稳增长政策相对有限，而在前期政策效力逐渐退 坡、反内卷政策逐渐推进、财政资金向民生、化债、科技等领 域倾斜、部分房企信用风险上升等多种因素的影响下，1-11 月 固投累计增速为-2.6%，前值为-1.7%。2）居民消费意愿并不强 劲，而以旧换新政策效力下降、"双十一"前置透支部分消费 需求，社零增速录得 1.3%，前值为 2.9%。3）虽然内需较弱且 反内卷政策仍在推进，但外需韧性较强，工业生产是相对稳定 的。11 月工增当月同比录得 4.8%，前值为 4.9%。 经济数据边际变化不大，整体乏善可陈，市场更为关注后续稳 增长政策的力度以及节奏。中央经济工作会议提出"推动投资 止跌回稳"，稳增长目标的权重正在上升，不过也要注意，稳 增长政策的力度应是相对温和的，其会搭配调结构政策共同推 出。考虑到明年初经济指标存在高基数问题，且近期出台的增 量政策也相对有限，今年末明年初或有部分行业性政策逐渐落 地，且 9-10 月部分稳增长政策对应的实物工作量也应向明年倾 斜，服务消费和投资或 ...