Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Discussion: Outlook for Stock Index Quotes [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Liu Yihan from Chuangyuan Research [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - A-share market is bullish in the medium to long term, and the stock index will fluctuate around 3600 points in the short term, expected to build a platform at this level, and then choose to attack the high point of 3674 points in November last year after a period of shock digestion. The lower limit of the market adjustment is expected to be around 3500 points, and if the adjustment is shallow, it may be around the gap of 3536 points on July 18 [25]. - The strategy is to continue to focus on a balanced allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks, with a balanced allocation of SSE 50 and CSI 1000. Technology remains the main line for medium - to long - term allocation [25]. Summary by Directory Market Review - Most global markets experienced significant pullbacks this week, including the A - share market [9]. - In the past 5 trading days, all major A - share indices declined, with the decline of the Hang Seng Index being - 3.47%, and the declines of other indices such as the Wind All - A, SSE Composite Index, and Shenzhen Component Index ranging from - 0.74% to - 1.75% [5]. - Among the Shenwan primary industries in the past 5 trading days, the pharmaceutical and biological industry had a decline of - 0.54%, while the communication and media industries had a rise of 3% [7]. Sino - US Trade Negotiations - The Sino - US tariff negotiation period was extended by 90 days. China did not promise to invest in the US or purchase commodities, and the two sides stood on an equal footing [10][11]. - After the negotiation in Stockholm on July 29, the two sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures. The US aims to confirm the implementation of the agreement reached in London and accelerate the supply of rare - earth magnets from China to US companies [13]. - The US uses its consumer market as a bargaining chip in tariff negotiations. The global market faces a problem of insufficient total demand, and the proportion of US residents' salary income has decreased while the importance of financial assets has increased. If the US capital market has problems, it will affect US consumption and thus tariff negotiations [14]. Fed Interest - Rate Meeting - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.50% on July 30, but Fed Chairman Powell made a hawkish statement. There is still a high probability of a rate cut in September [16][20]. - The reasons for a possible rate cut are: the US demand - side data has shown a slowdown in economic data, and the financial market will force the Fed to cut rates, such as the need for liquidity supplementation due to the decline of the TGA account and the increase in overnight financing rates caused by the significant decrease in the balance of the overnight reverse - repurchase market [20]. Politburo Meeting - The Politburo meeting in July indicates that subsequent pro - growth policies will continue to be promoted and implemented [26]. - The statement in the Politburo meeting about "enhancing the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market and consolidating the stable and improving momentum of the capital market" is conducive to the recovery of A - share risk appetite [26]. A - Share Market Analysis - The A - share market is affected by multiple factors. During the mid - year report disclosure period, the economy has structural problems, and the recovery is stable but without significant improvement. The external environment is uncertain, and domestic monetary policy is in a wait - and - see state [26]. - The molecular end is neutral, and the denominator end is slightly bullish. The strategy is to balance the allocation of blue - chips and technology growth stocks [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese futures market has shown significant growth in trading volume and value, reflecting a shift towards high-quality development in various sectors, particularly in response to government policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the national futures market recorded a trading volume of 1.059 billion contracts, a year-on-year increase of 48.89% [1] - The trading value for July reached 71.31 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 36.03% [1] - From January to July, the cumulative trading volume was 5.135 billion contracts, with a cumulative trading value of 411.04 trillion yuan, both showing year-on-year increases of 23.11% and 23.09% respectively [1] Group 2: Commodity Trends - Traditional commodities such as gold, crude oil, rebar, soda ash, and glass have seen active trading, indicating ongoing market interest in safe-haven assets [1] - There is a noticeable increase in trading volume for new energy materials like polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon, suggesting a transition in the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries towards high-quality development driven by technological advancement and efficiency [1] Group 3: Financial Instruments - The trading volume for CSI 1000 index futures and 30-year government bond futures ranked high, indicating a growing preference among investors for small and mid-cap growth stocks [1] - The data reflects heightened market attention to long-term interest rate trends [1] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - The increased activity in the futures market signifies a deepening structural transformation of the real economy and highlights the capital market's enhanced ability to support national strategies and macroeconomic stability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector in Hong Kong has shown significant gains, with Maanshan Iron & Steel leading the rise, driven by expectations of stable demand supported by government policies and a tightening supply situation [1] Industry Summary - The steel industry is currently facing prominent supply-demand contradictions, leading to an overall decline in industry profits. However, the implementation of "stabilizing growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly as the real estate sector stabilizes, infrastructure investment remains steady, manufacturing continues to develop, and steel exports remain high [1] - The supply side is anticipated to tighten under the expectations of supply control policies, while the industry concentration is expected to strengthen. Overall, the supply-demand situation in the steel industry is likely to remain stable [1] - The research indicates that the future industrial landscape of the steel sector is expected to improve gradually, with certain companies currently undervalued, presenting structural investment opportunities, especially for high-margin special steel enterprises and leading steel companies with strong cost control and scale effects [1] Company Summary - Maanshan Iron & Steel (00323) saw a price increase of 12.79%, closing at 2.470, while Da Ming International (01090) rose by 8.86% to 0.860. Other notable gains include China Oriental Group (00581) up 4.49%, Ansteel (00347) up 4.09%, and Chongqing Steel (01053) up 2.08% [1] - Maanshan Iron & Steel is expected to report a net loss of approximately 75 million yuan for the first half of the year, as discussed in a board meeting on August 28 [1] - Chongqing Steel has completed its share buyback plan, which may contribute to its stock performance [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction PMI for July is reported at 50.6%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in construction activities due to adverse weather conditions [3][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, with potential for further policy support to boost growth [2][17] - The focus on urban renewal and major infrastructure projects is expected to enhance regional demand, particularly in central and western regions [3][12] Industry Dynamics Tracking - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need for sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency [16][17] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced that the 800 billion yuan "two heavy" construction project list has been fully allocated, with plans to expedite project construction [20] - The July PMI data indicates weak new project landing expectations, with new order and business activity expectation indices at 42.7% and 51.6%, respectively [3][29] Weekly Market Review - The construction and decoration sector (SW) experienced a decline of 2.41% this week, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind All A Index, which fell by 1.75% and 1.09%, respectively [1][34] - Notable gainers in the sector included companies like Design Institute and Tianwo Technology, while companies like Hainan Development and Zhonghua Rock Soil faced significant declines [34][36]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Maintain a strategy of buying on dips in August. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, and the overall shortage of copper mines throughout the year supports copper prices. In the short - term, due to the implementation of copper tariffs (excluding electrolytic copper) and the further decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices are in a continuous adjustment, with a support level at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, and the tight supply of copper mines will continue to support copper prices, so the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [6][7]. Summary by Directory 01后市研判 - In August, maintain the strategy of buying on dips. The shortage of copper mines this year is more severe than last year, providing support for copper prices. In the short - term, copper prices are adjusting due to tariff implementation and the decline of the September interest - rate cut expectation, with a support at 77,000. In the medium - to - long - term, expect two interest - rate cuts this year, and continue to maintain the buying - on - dips strategy [6][7]. 02行情回顾 - In July, copper prices remained in a high - level consolidation. From late June to early July, due to the expectation that the 232 policy might be implemented in September or October, the shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions intensified, and copper prices rose. On July 3, Shanghai copper reached 80,990 yuan/ton, equivalent to 10,000 US dollars/ton for London copper. On July 8, the US announced a 50% tariff on copper, and copper prices fell from the high. On July 14, copper prices hit the monthly low of 77,700 yuan/ton. In late July, the "anti - involution" trend and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Station project boosted market sentiment, and copper prices reached 80,000 yuan/ton again. But after the sentiment faded, copper prices returned to the fundamentals [9][10]. 03宏观面 - **International Situation**: On August 1, the 50% copper tariff excluded electrolytic copper, copper ore, and scrap copper. Excluding the electrolytic copper tariff made the CME market almost eliminate the tariff premium, and there is a possibility of US electrolytic copper flowing out, accelerating the supply - demand balance in non - US regions. In July, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Powell's speech was hawkish, and the strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, causing the September interest - rate cut expectation to decline further, and the US dollar index rebounded, suppressing copper prices. In the medium - to - long - term, as the tariff situation eases and the actual US CPI shows a moderate increase, the market has been lowering CPI expectations, opening up space for interest - rate cuts in Q3, and there are still expectations of two interest - rate cuts this year, which will gradually remove the upward pressure on metals [8]. - **US Economic Data**: In June, the US CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than expected. In July, the ADP employment increased by 104,000, exceeding economists' expectations but still far below last year's average. The second - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value increased by 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than expected. The strong US economic and employment data increased the risk of inflation, and the 9 - month interest - rate cut expectation may be further reduced [20]. - **Domestic Situation**: The domestic economy is generally stable, and there is an expectation for the accelerated implementation of growth - stabilizing policies. From the supply side, according to the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025 - 2027)", copper smelting development will shift from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, and the contradiction between mining and smelting is expected to be gradually alleviated. From the demand side, the "anti - involution" policies focus on a new round of growth - stabilizing actions, and the stable growth of the manufacturing industry will boost copper demand. In the medium - to - long - term, after the elimination of over - capacity, the supply growth rate may lag behind the demand improvement rate, further pushing up the copper price [23][26]. 04基本面 - **Supply Side** - **Copper Ore Import**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.3497 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 1.77%. The supply from the top two suppliers, Chile and Peru, continued to decline, with Peru's decline being around 15%. The long - term processing fees negotiated between domestic smelters and overseas miners this year are zero, and the spot processing fees remain low, indicating that the tight supply of copper mines is difficult to ease in the short term [27]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: As of the week of July 25, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 42.98 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.22 US dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market for copper concentrates remained relatively inactive, and the processing fees showed a trend of "stabilizing with a slight correction". The 2025 Q2 CSPC general manager's meeting decided not to set a reference figure for the Q3 spot copper concentrate processing fees [30]. - **Refined Copper Inventory**: Affected by the 232 tariff policy, the rush to import copper started in April. In April and May, the US imported 200,000 tons and 210,000 tons of refined copper respectively, far exceeding the historical average of 80,000 tons, causing a shortage of refined copper supply in non - US regions. As of June 30, the LME inventory dropped to 90,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the beginning of the year. With the implementation of the 232 policy, the LME inventory started to increase, reaching 128,000 tons by July 25. The New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high in more than seven years. As of July 31, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 121,300 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from the 28th [33]. - **Electrolytic Copper Production**: In the first half of 2025, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new high. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 674,700 tons, or 11.40%. In July, the estimated production was 1.1504 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% and a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Although smelting is in a loss - making stage, the willingness to actively reduce production is not strong [36]. - **Scrap Copper Import**: In June, China's scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.06% and a year - on - year increase of 8.49%. The supply from Thailand, the new largest scrap copper supplier, continued to rise by more than 20%, and the supply from Asian countries such as Japan, Malaysia, and South Korea also increased to varying degrees, while the supply from the US decreased by more than 80%. Due to the adjustment of the smelting raw material structure, the increased supply from other countries compensated for the decrease from the US [39]. - **Demand Side** - **Power Sector**: In 2025, the State Grid's investment is expected to exceed 650 billion yuan for the first time. From January to June, the power grid investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The power source project investment increased by 5.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the over - expected growth of photovoltaic and wind power installations. If the two - grid companies complete their planned investment of 825 billion yuan, there is still significant room for growth in power grid investment. Affected by the off - season and high copper prices, the cable operating rate in June dropped to 72.41%. From January to June, China's cable exports were 1.4296 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.63%. The "Belt and Road" countries have great potential in promoting China's power material exports [41]. - **Real Estate Sector**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and housing construction area decreased by 9.1%. New housing starts decreased by 20.0%, and housing completions decreased by 14.8%. Although real estate sales are basically stable and inventory is decreasing, the demand for copper in the real estate sector remains weak [45]. - **Automobile Sector**: From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is approaching 50%. China's automobile exports were 3.083 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, with new energy vehicle exports increasing by 75.2%. The growth of the automobile industry will drive copper consumption [48]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: In June, the national air - conditioner production was 28.383 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to June, the cumulative production was 163.296 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. In August, the combined production plan for air - conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines was 26.97 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.9%. The production plan for household air - conditioners in August was 11.443 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%, but the decline was expected to narrow compared to the previous month. The high - temperature weather in summer and the "trade - in" subsidy policy promoted air - conditioner sales and inventory digestion [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable overall. The improvement of consumer purchasing意愿 in the US depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term, and non - dollar assets should be monitored [8]. - Domestic macro: As the "anti - involution" policy expectations strengthen, although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - Asset view: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, with US consumer purchasing意愿 for real estate, cars, and household durables fluctuating at a low level. Price suppression persists, and improvement depends on wealth effects and income expectations. Monitor the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The low - dollar pattern continues in the long - term [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: "Anti - involution" policy expectations are strengthening. Despite the off - season, domestic demand has not declined significantly, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies mainly use existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Asset View**: Focus on structural opportunities in domestic assets, and pay attention to Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting signals. Overseas, be aware of tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. Strategically allocate resources such as gold and copper [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The main line of "anti - involution" has switched. With insufficient incremental funds, it is expected to rise in a volatile manner [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility has reached an inflection point. It is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Trump's tariff policy and Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has fallen from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and hot - metal production [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot - metal production, weather, and policy [9]. - **Coke**: Spot prices have started the fourth round of increases, and the futures price has followed coking coal's limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Policy - stimulated sentiment has reversed, and the futures price has limit - down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Silicon Iron**: Bullish sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the futures price has opened lower and fluctuated. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - **Glass**: Speculative sentiment has declined, and intermediate - level inventory has increased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to spot sales [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment has weakened, and both futures and spot prices have declined rapidly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to soda ash inventory [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions, policy surprises, and demand recovery [9]. - **Alumina**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the price has adjusted from a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to ore production recovery and electrolytic aluminum production [9]. - **Aluminum**: The boost in sentiment has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Zinc**: Macro sentiment remains, and the zinc price is oscillating at a high level. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro risks and zinc ore supply [9]. - **Lead**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the lead price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - **Nickel**: "Anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to Indonesian policies and demand growth [9]. - **Tin**: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is oscillating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production recovery in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: "Anti - involution" sentiment persists, and the silicon price has rebounded. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical support continues, and attention is on Russian oil risks. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [11]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure persists, and cost factors dominate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to cost progress such as crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are falling, and the futures price is under downward pressure. It is expected to decline, with attention to unexpected demand [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has weakened during the power - generation peak season. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The futures price follows crude oil and weakens. It is expected to decline, with attention to crude oil and natural - gas prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Commodity sentiment has faded, and the price has declined with coal. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [11]. - **Urea**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to export policies and capacity elimination [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to coal prices and inventory accumulation [11]. - **PX**: Sentiment fluctuations are intensifying, and fundamental drivers are weakening. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance [11]. - **PTA**: Large - scale plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to unexpected plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and processing fees are compressed. Supply - demand drivers are weak. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to textile exports and downstream purchasing [11]. - **Bottle Chip**: During the production - cut season, cost pricing dominates over supply - demand drivers. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to future production starts [11]. - **Propylene**: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene to fluctuate. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and the domestic macro - environment [11]. - **PP**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has changed, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - **Plastic**: Macro support has weakened, and the price has declined with fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices and domestic and international macro - environments [11]. - **Styrene**: Commodity sentiment has improved, and attention is on policy details. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: "Anti - involution" sentiment has cooled, and the price is mainly oscillating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low inventory in Shandong supports the price, and the downward space is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to market sentiment, production starts, and demand [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Market sentiment has stabilized, and prices may strengthen with fluctuations. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: The excellent - grade rate is higher than expected, and US soybeans are trading around 1000 cents. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to US soybean weather, domestic demand, and trade wars [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot prices are generally stable, waiting for new guidance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand, macro - environment, and weather [11]. - **Pigs**: Inventory remains high, and both futures and spot prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: The commodity market has adjusted sharply, and the rubber price has dropped significantly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price follows the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to significant crude - oil price fluctuations [11]. - **Pulp**: "Anti - involution" trading may resume. Pay attention to arbitrage during the price decline. It is expected to rise with fluctuations, with attention to macro - economic changes and US - dollar - based quotes [11]. - **Cotton**: The price difference between months is converging. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand and production [11]. - **Sugar**: Imports are expected to increase, limiting the sugar - price rebound. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to abnormal weather [11]. - **Logs**: Fundamental changes are limited, and short - term prices are dominated by macro - expectations. It is expected to decline with fluctuations, with attention to shipment and delivery volumes [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: There is a short - term weak recovery in overseas commodity demand, remaining relatively stable. The improvement of US consumer demand depends on wealth effect and income expectations. Attention should be paid to the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. The overall impact of upcoming US tariff policies may be lower than in April, but uncertainties remain [7]. - Domestic macro: As an important meeting approaches, the expectation of "anti - involution" policies has strengthened. Although it is the off - season, domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports remain resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies may focus on using existing policies, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [7]. - Asset views: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and policy signals from the Politburo meeting. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter is higher. Overseas, factors such as tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. In the long - term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue. Strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is recommended [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: Short - term weak recovery in commodity demand. US consumer purchase intentions are fluctuating at a low level, and price suppression persists. Improvement depends on wealth effect and income expectations. Follow the latest non - farm data and tariff policies. Tariff policies may be implemented before August 1st and 12th, with uncertainties [7]. - Domestic: "Anti - involution" policy expectations have strengthened. Some industries have administrative production - cut expectations. Domestic demand has not significantly declined, and exports are resilient. Current growth - stabilizing policies may use existing policies, with more incremental policies likely in the fourth quarter [7]. - Assets: Focus on Sino - US tariff negotiations and Politburo meeting policies. Policy - driven logic will be stronger in the second half of the year. Overseas, pay attention to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. The weak - dollar pattern will continue in the long - term. Strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is advisable [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Opportunities are spreading across sectors, but there is a lack of incremental funds. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend [8]. - Stock index options: Continue to hold bull spreads. Option liquidity is deteriorating, and the short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market remains under pressure. Key concerns are unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase. Key factors are Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Key factors are tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: The fundamentals are marginally improving, and cost support is strong. Key factors are the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Iron ore: Hot - metal production has slightly decreased, and market sentiment has cooled. Key factors are overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coke: The futures price has risen significantly, and the price - increase progress has accelerated. Key factors are steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Coking coal: The "anti - involution" expectation has risen, and the futures price has continuously hit the daily limit. Key factors are steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Ferrosilicon: Inventory pressure is acceptable, and it follows the sector's trend. Key factors are raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Manganese silicon: Supply - demand contradictions are acceptable, and it follows the sector's trend. Key factors are cost prices and overseas quotes. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Glass: Middle and downstream sectors are replenishing stocks simultaneously, and upstream inventory has significantly decreased. Key factor is spot sales. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Soda ash: Supply - demand changes are limited, and sentiment supports the price. Key factor is soda ash inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: A non - ferrous growth - stabilizing plan is about to be introduced, supporting the copper price. Key factors are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish Fed policies, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Alumina: The futures sentiment is fluctuating, and the price is adjusting at a high level. Key factors are unexpected ore复产 and unexpected electrolytic aluminum复产. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Aluminum: The sentiment boost has slowed, and the aluminum price has declined. Key factors are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Zinc: Macro sentiment still exists, and the zinc price is fluctuating at a high level. Key factors are macro - turning risks and unexpected zinc ore supply recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Lead: Supply - demand is relatively loose, and the lead price is fluctuating. Key factors are supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Nickel: The "anti - involution" trading has slowed, and the nickel price is fluctuating widely in the short - term. Key factors are unexpected macro and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policy risks. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price has slightly rebounded, and the stainless - steel futures price is fluctuating. Key factors are Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Tin: LME inventory continues to decline, and the tin price is slightly upward - trending. Key factors are the expectation of Wa State's复产 and demand improvement. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Industrial silicon: The "anti - involution" sentiment still exists, and the silicon price has rebounded. Key factors are unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. - Lithium carbonate: The market sentiment is fluctuating, and the lithium price has回调 after rising. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term outlook is volatile [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: It is under pressure at a high level. Key factors are OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - LPG: Supply pressure continues, and chemical demand is acceptable. Key factor is the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Asphalt: The spot price has fallen, and the futures price is under pressure. Key factor is unexpected demand. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: It is weak during the power - generation peak season. Key factors are crude oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The futures price follows the crude - oil trend and is weakening. Key factors are crude oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [10]. - Methanol: It is boosted by coal in the short - term. Key factors are macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Urea: Domestic supply - demand cannot provide strong support, and export pull is less than expected. Key factors are export policies and capacity elimination. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Ethylene glycol: The price is supported by the macro - environment, but there is a risk of over - trading. Key factors are coal - price trends and the inflection point of visible inventory accumulation. The short - term outlook is a volatile decline [10]. - PX: Sentiment disturbances are increasing, and fundamental drivers are weakening. Key factors are overseas device restarts and downstream PTA device maintenance schedules. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PTA: Major plant maintenance is approaching, and inventory accumulation may slow down. Key factors are the implementation of unexpected major plant maintenance and downstream polyester production cuts. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Short - fiber: It has difficulty following the upstream price increase, and the processing fee is compressed. Key factors are textile exports and downstream purchasing rhythms. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Bottle - chip: During the production - cut season, cost pricing is more important than supply - demand. Key factor is the later - stage bottle - chip production start - up. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Propylene: Short - term contradictions are limited, and it may follow polypropylene. Key factors are oil prices and domestic macro - situation. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PP: It is boosted by "anti - involution" but supply - demand is still under pressure. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Plastic: It is boosted by the macro - environment but the fundamental support is weak. Key factors are oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved. Key factors are oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - PVC: The sentiment has cooled. Key factors are expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Caustic soda: Cost support is strong, and the downward space is limited. Key factors are market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Oils and fats: Market sentiment has weakened. Key factors are US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Protein meal: Market sentiment has subsided, and prices are falling. Key factors are US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Corn/starch: The spot price is stable, waiting for new guidance. Key factors are less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Live pigs: Sentiment - based trading has cooled, and the futures price has declined from a high level. Key factors are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Rubber: There are炒作 themes, and the rubber price has risen rapidly in the afternoon. Key factors are production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures price is in an adjustment phase. Key factor is significant crude - oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Pulp: It is mainly driven by the macro - environment. Key factors are macro - economic changes and US - dollar - quoted price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is a volatile increase [10]. - Cotton: The main - contract position has decreased, and the upward momentum has weakened. Key factors are demand and production. The short - term outlook is volatile [10]. - Sugar: Import volume is expected to increase, limiting the price rebound. Key factor is abnormal weather. The short - term outlook is volatile [10].

Group 1 - The credit bond market is expected to experience strong fluctuations in August due to multiple factors, including the upcoming Politburo meeting and the end of the temporary period for "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the US on August 14, which may affect market sentiment [1][11] - The overall trend of credit bonds is likely to remain stable in the short term, with limited downward potential, as the central bank's supportive stance continues to provide backing for the bond market [1][11] - After recent adjustments, credit bond spreads are still compressing, and institutional investors are expected to gradually enter the market, driven by the current "asset shortage" environment [1][11] Group 2 - The supply of credit bonds is not expected to increase significantly, with the growth of sci-tech bonds potentially offsetting the reduction in local government bonds, but overall net supply is likely to remain constrained [2][14] - The weighted coupon rate of sci-tech bonds is below 2%, indicating a scarcity of high-yield assets, which maintains a strong demand for credit bonds in the market [2][14] - The investment value of credit bonds has improved after a significant adjustment, particularly for mid-to-high-grade short- to medium-term credit varieties, which are now yielding above 10% historical levels [19][20] Group 3 - Manufacturing, new infrastructure, and consumption are expected to be key areas of policy focus in the second half of the year, with various measures likely to be introduced to support these sectors [22][23] - The macroeconomic data for the first half of 2025 shows a resilient economy, with GDP growth of 5.3% and industrial output growth of 6.4%, indicating a stable economic environment for credit bonds [22][23] - The government is likely to implement more policies to regulate the competitive order in the new energy vehicle industry, which may improve cash flow for upstream suppliers [24][29]

Group 1: Industrial Production - China's industrial production shows signs of optimization, with marginal improvements in raw material production and utilization rates for steel, cement, and glass[1] - Steel construction material production increased by 0.6% week-on-week, while apparent demand for steel construction materials rose by 2.7%[5] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt and some chemical products in Shandong has also seen recovery[13] Group 2: Real Estate Market - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate improved by 18.8 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The average listing price index for second-hand homes fell by 0.45% week-on-week as of July 14[22] Group 3: Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue averaged 140.65 million yuan per day, a 39.0% increase week-on-week[29] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 12.6% year-on-year, with a 2.3 percentage point increase from the previous week[27] - Passenger car retail sales from July 1-20 reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%[30] Group 4: External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 7.5% year-on-year as of July 20, with container throughput growing by 4.3%[32] - South Korea's export value increased by 4.1% year-on-year in the first 20 working days of July, although the growth rate slightly declined compared to June[32] Group 5: Risks - Potential risks include insufficient growth policies, unexpected severity of overseas economic downturns, and escalation of geopolitical conflicts[34]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed may be patient in cutting interest rates due to strong economic data, and the progress of tariff negotiations has made the trade situation clearer, leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The progress of US - EU trade negotiations has boosted global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the introduction of stable - growth policies for ten major industries have boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals may fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as hydropower, liquor, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Although economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and stable - growth policies have boosted risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term, paying attention to correction risks [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to rebound last Friday, but the night - session prices fluctuated. The sharp decline in coking coal prices led to a correction in the steel market. Real - world demand remains weak, and the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week. Supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the decline in hot - rolled coil production. There may be production restrictions around the September 3 parade, and the short - term supply increase is limited. It is advisable to treat the steel market as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore corrected last Friday. The weekly iron - water output decreased slightly, and the room for further growth in iron ore demand is limited. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand. The supply of medium - grade powder in ports is sufficient, the block - ore resources are concentrated, and the supply of low - grade powder has been supplemented. The global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 122 tons week - on - week, but the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream mines increased significantly. The port inventory increased slightly. It is advisable to treat the iron - ore price as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, and tariffs are generally easing. The US economy remains resilient, but the manufacturing industry is weakening, while the eurozone manufacturing industry is stabilizing. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time. Short - term stable - growth plans are sentimentally positive for copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, and Comex copper inventories are approaching 250,000 short tons [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with a slight increase in domestic social inventories and a significant increase in LME inventories. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document has boosted market sentiment, the actual impact is expected to be limited. It is advisable not to short for the time being and wait for the sentiment to cool down [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased to 55.51%, and the supply of tin mines is expected to be loose. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be suppressed in the medium term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The exchange has restricted the position of the LC2509 contract, and the commodity sentiment has declined. There are many supply - side disturbances under the "anti - involution" background. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after the correction. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.5% to 18,630 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 48.6%. The price of imported lithium ore has rebounded, and the social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory have increased [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" market has driven the futures and spot prices of industrial silicon above the full cost of the main low - cost area, but there are inventory and supply pressures above. The demand for silicone has decreased due to a fault - shutdown. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term correction risks [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price remained stable last week, and the futures price had a high premium. The number of warehouse receipts increased. It is necessary to pay attention to the convergence of the basis. The inventory increased slightly, and the prices of N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components increased. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry, the price of silicon wafers increased by 35% in July, and the production schedule decreased by 10% [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The recent driving force in the oil market is limited. The strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening confidence in the US reaching an agreement with major trading partners have led to a slight decline in oil prices. The probability of the US and Europe reaching an agreement is 50%, which may threaten energy demand. The inventory is low, and the spot market has not shown obvious signs of weakness. The strengthening of the US dollar may continue to suppress priced commodities, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected with the sector and continued to fluctuate at a low level. The inventory has not shown obvious signs of depletion, and the overall demand is average. The basis has rebounded slightly, mainly due to the decline in the futures price. The social inventory is slightly accumulating. After the peak season, the market expectation will gradually decline. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil center, but the upside of the futures price is limited due to the inventory situation [15]. - **PX**: The short - term PTA operating rate remains high, and the tight supply situation of PX continues. The overseas price has risen to 874 US dollars, and the price difference between PX and naphtha has also risen to 293 US dollars. However, the PTA processing fee has dropped to a six - month low, which may lead to production cuts in leading plants. PX occupies too much industrial - chain profit, which may lead to downstream negative feedback risks. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside is not overly optimistic [15]. - **PTA**: The spot - trading volume is still declining, and some spot prices have weakened to a discount of 5 yuan to the main contract. The main - contract price has weakened with the futures market. The downstream operating rate remains low at 88.7%, and downstream production cuts still exist. The PTA processing fee has remained at a low level of around 150, which may lead to a reduction in the operating rate. The short - term inventory is slightly accumulating, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased slightly to 54.4 tons, and the import volume has remained low. The coal - chemical products have risen slightly due to capacity - adjustment news. However, there is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance plants, the short - term downstream operating rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have not shown unexpected growth. The futures price has failed to break through the pressure level and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of crude oil has fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price has declined with the sector. The terminal orders are still average, and the operating rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, but more significant inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand stocking in August. The short - fiber price is expected to follow the polyester end in the medium term and can be shorted on rallies [16]. - **Methanol**: The coal - mine capacity - verification policy has pushed up coal prices, which has strengthened the support for methanol. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the market is overheated, and the short - term price is still strong. Fundamentally, the upside of methanol is limited by plant restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits. It is necessary to be vigilant against the expected difference near the Politburo meeting, and it is advisable to be cautiously long or wait and see for conservatives [16]. - **PP**: Affected by multiple policies such as "anti - involution", "chemical - plant assessment", and coal inspections, the PP price has rebounded, and the bullish market has continued. The short - term price is strong, but the futures price will face a pressure level, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see [17]. - **LLDPE**: Short - term macro - policies have boosted commodity prices, and polyethylene has followed the upward trend. In the medium and long term, the oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and downstream demand has weakened during the price increase. The import profit has increased significantly, which may lead to a worse - than - expected fundamental situation. It is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium and long term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The impact of extreme heat in the US soybean - producing areas has decreased. Although the weekly crop - quality rate has slightly decreased, the hot and humid weather is generally beneficial to crop growth. US soybean exports have cooled down, and the news of direct domestic imports of South American soybean meal has weakened China's dependence on US soybeans. Currently, US soybeans are slightly under pressure, but the bullish market for soybean oil provides support. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US negotiations next week, which also provides phased support for US soybeans [18]. - **Palm Oil**: Since July, the production of Malaysian palm oil has progressed smoothly, the exports have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. Fundamentally, India has low oil inventories and high cost - performance, and there is an expectation of improved exports during the festival - stocking period. In the related market, crude oil has fluctuated, and the biodiesel policy has no room for fermentation. The domestic related oil fundamentals are under pressure, and the soybean - palm oil price has rebounded with the correction of palm oil, but the price inversion is still serious. In addition, the arrival of imported palm oil in China has increased, the spot circulation in the off - season is average, and it is close to the near - month import cost line. It is expected that the pressure of selling hedging at high prices may still exist. The palm - oil market is bullish, but the upside resistance has increased significantly. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The decline in US soybean and Brazilian export prices has led to a weak adjustment in the expectation of domestic long - term soybean imports. In addition, the increase in direct domestic imports of soybean meal and the reduction of soybean and soybean - meal export tariffs in Argentina have weakened the market's concern about the shortage of soybeans and soybean meal in the fourth quarter. The correction of the futures prices of the 01 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 has basically priced in the logic of cost decline and is anchored to the cost of direct - imported soybean meal for support. The negative news adjustment has ended, and it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of the US soybean market in the next stage. It is expected that the soybean - meal price will stabilize in the short term. However, if the US soybean production - increase expectation remains stable, there may be a further expanding bearish market at the end of the crop - growth period in late August [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean - oil inventory pressure is prominent, the terminal consumption is still in the off - season, and the basis quotes in various regions have continued to weaken. Currently, the soybean - meal price has declined significantly, and the cost has not changed significantly. The soybean - meal price has received seesaw support in the short term. In addition, the fundamental expectation of related palm oil is also poor. Therefore, the soybean - palm oil price difference is expected to have a phased upward trend in the short term. For rapeseed oil, the domestic port inventory is high, the circulation is slow, and with the increase in direct - import channels for rapeseed and oil meal, the concern about future supply is fading. The preference of long - position funds is not high, and the weak - range market may continue [20].