Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations before rising, with Wind All A Index increasing by 0.45% and a trading volume of 2.5 trillion yuan [10] - The cyclical sectors showed strong performance, while the CSI 1000 Index fell by 0.02%, the CSI 500 Index rose by 0.15%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.83%, and the SSE 50 Index rose by 1.14% [10] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to establish a national-level merger fund, regulate local economic promotion behaviors, and advance significant high-tech projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 25 basis points, aiming to support specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [10] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, boosting valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges announced an increase in the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating a rise in risk-averse sentiment among investors [10] - The market is currently in a high-level fluctuation mode, with increased short-term volatility, suggesting a cautious approach is advisable [10] Bond Market - On Wednesday, government bond futures closed with the 30-year main contract down by 0.23%, the 10-year down by 0.01%, the 5-year down by 0.04%, and the 2-year down by 0.02% [11] - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a bid rate of 1.4%, maintaining the same rate as the previous operation [11] Precious Metals - Overnight, London spot gold and silver experienced a pullback, while platinum and palladium showed slight increases [12] - The gold-silver ratio slightly decreased to around 56, and the platinum-palladium price difference rose to approximately 491 USD/ounce [12] - The U.S. ISM services PMI for January was reported at 53.8, matching the highest level since October 2024, but new orders showed signs of slowing down [12]

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 光伏煤炭行业领涨 A 股小幅上行 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股震荡上行》 2026-02-03 《市场分析：电网酿酒行业领涨 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2026-02-02 《市场分析：农业通信行业领涨 A 股宽幅震 荡》 2026-01-30 联系人： 李智 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道 1788 号 T1 座 22 楼 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2026 年 02 月 04 日 投资要点： ◼ A 股市场综述 周三（02 月 04 日）A 股市场低开高走、小幅震荡上行，早盘股指低 开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在 4087 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震 荡，尾盘再度上行，盘中煤炭、光伏设备、航空机场以及玻璃玻纤 等行业表现较好；贵金属、游戏、文化传媒以及互联网服务等行业 表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡上行的运行特征。创业板市 场周三震荡整理，创业板成分指数全天表现弱于主板市场。 ◼ ...

基金分析专题报告(深度) 证券研究报告 数说公募主动权益基金四季报 ——规模/份额双降、周期/金融配置权重上升 王子薇 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130524010001 王聃聃 分析师SAC执业编号：S1130521100001 2026/2/2 主动权益基金2025年四季报总结 ◼ 基金市场概况：2025年四季度A股在经历了近一年的上涨趋势后开始横盘震荡，宽基指数涨跌互现。风格上，大、中盘价值指数均显著跑赢成长，小 盘成长与价值收益差距不大，大盘价值领跑，反映机构资金在进攻与防守之间切换、风险暴露选择性收敛的同步推进；行业指数方面，四季度申万31 个行业除医药生物、美容护理等9个行业外，其余各行业指数均取得正收益，其中，资源和军工表现较好，医药整体偏弱。主动权益基金规模和份额 下降，发行数量和发行规模小幅提升。 ◼ 基金持仓情况：权益基金平均股票仓位小幅收缩，为88.05%；港股仓位也有所下降。重仓股板块配置方面，权益基金集中增持周期品方向，主要为 稳增长政策托底下宏观预期边际改善、顺周期盈利弹性重新获得资金定价，以及年末时点资金对组合确定性与波动控制要求提升的合力结果，机构在 周期与金融板块抬升配比，同 ...

2026 2026 年 年第 1 月 5 27 期 宏观经济 日 工业企业利润数据点评 新旧分化显著，工业企业利润年增速结束连续三年负 增长转正 ——12 月工业企业利润数据点评 事件：2025 年 1-12 月工业企业营收同比增长 1.1%，较 2024 年回落 1 个百分点，较 1-11 月回落 0.5 个百分点；1-12 月工业企 业利润同比 0.6%，较 2024 年回升 3.9 个百分点，较 1-11 月回升 0.5 个百分点,12 月当月利润同比 5.3%，较上年同期回落 5.7 个百 分点，较 11 月回升 18.4 个百分点。 "量"的支撑边际加大、"价"的拖累减轻，12 月工业企业 利润由负转正，2025 年工业企业利润扭转连续 3 年负增长态势， 增速转正但仍位于低位水平。12 月工业企业利润当月同比由负转 正，为 5.3%，较 11 月回升 18.4 个百分点，为近 3 个月最高。量 的方面，12 月年底备货的季末效应和出口拉动下工业增加值增速 回升，12 月工业增加值同比较上月回升 0.4 个百分点至 5.2%。价 的方面，12 月 PPI 当月同比下降 1.9%，降幅较前值收窄 0. ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a low opening and wide fluctuations, with notable performance in the electric grid equipment, liquor, banking, and photovoltaic equipment sectors, while precious metals, fertilizers, mining, and non-ferrous metals lagged behind [2][3]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 16.90 times and 52.86 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][15]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 26,069 billion, which is above the median of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][15]. - The manufacturing PMI for January showed a slight decline, but the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing PMIs remain in the expansion zone, reflecting ongoing structural optimization in the industry [3][15]. - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on AI and high-end manufacturing while also considering opportunities in certain consumer sectors [3][15]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On February 2, the A-share market opened low and experienced wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 4,103 points before retreating [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,015.75 points, down 2.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,824.35 points, down 2.69% [8]. - Over 80% of stocks declined, with only the electric grid equipment and liquor sectors showing slight increases [7]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that the Shanghai Composite Index will likely maintain a slight fluctuation, advising investors to closely monitor macroeconomic data, changes in overseas liquidity, and policy developments [3][15]. - Short-term investment opportunities are highlighted in the electric grid equipment, liquor, banking, and photovoltaic equipment sectors [3][15].

Group 1 - In January, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, indicating a decline in economic sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a decrease in overall economic activity [1] - The comprehensive PMI output index also dropped to 49.8%, showing a general downturn in economic conditions [1] Group 2 - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to seasonal factors, as many industries enter a traditional off-peak period in January [2] - The PMI index is affected by a high base effect from December 2025, which saw a significant increase, thus impacting January's figures [2] - Weak internal investment and consumption demand, along with high external uncertainties, are major factors dragging down the manufacturing sector [2] Group 3 - The raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, while the factory price index increased to 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index exceeded the critical point [3] - The difference between the raw material purchase price index and the factory price index indicates a transfer of profits upstream [3] - Recent structural policies aimed at supporting small and medium enterprises and technology firms are expected to take time to positively impact the manufacturing sector [3] Group 4 - The non-manufacturing business activity index's decline is influenced by the downturn in industries such as construction, with the index falling to 49.4% [4] - The real estate sector's business activity index dropped below 40.0%, indicating a weak overall sentiment in that industry [4] - Financial services and capital market services showed higher activity levels, with indices above 65.0%, reflecting a more active market [4] Group 5 - The overall macroeconomic sentiment is declining due to seasonal fluctuations, high previous month bases, and insufficient effective demand from the real estate market [5] - The manufacturing production index is expected to decline significantly in February due to the extended Spring Festival holiday [5] - Future manufacturing sentiment will be influenced by export growth, real estate market trends, and the timing and intensity of growth-stimulating policies [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [4][5] - The new orders index for January was 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, reflecting a tightening of market demand due to seasonal factors and changes in export environments [4][5] - The production index remained in the expansion zone at 50.6%, despite a decline of 1.1 percentage points, suggesting continued overall expansion in manufacturing production [5] Group 2: Price Levels and Economic Conditions - The purchasing price index for raw materials rose to 56.1%, and the factory price index increased to 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index exceeded the critical point [5] - The proportion of manufacturing enterprises reporting insufficient market demand decreased to 54.9%, down 9.4 percentage points, indicating a stabilization in market demand [5] - Analysts suggest that the overall economic climate is affected by seasonal fluctuations, high previous month bases, and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market [6] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index for January was 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, primarily due to a decrease in the construction sector [9] - The service sector showed relative stability, with the service business activity index slightly declining by 0.2 percentage points, remaining around 49.5% [10] - The business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 57.1%, indicating an optimistic outlook, particularly for consumption-related services during the upcoming Spring Festival [10]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector in China is experiencing a decline in economic activity, as indicated by the drop in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) below the growth threshold, reflecting insufficient market demand and the need for stronger economic recovery measures [1][4][6]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for January is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating fluctuations in manufacturing operations [4]. - New orders index fell to 49.2%, down 1.6 percentage points, suggesting a tightening of market demand [4]. - The production index remains in the expansion zone at 50.6%, but has decreased by 1.1 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production growth [5]. - The prices of raw materials and finished products are rising, with the raw material purchase price index at 56.1% and the factory price index at 50.6%, marking the first time in nearly 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point [5][6]. - Over 34% of manufacturing companies reported a decline in profits, highlighting concerns regarding profitability amid rising raw material costs [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points, with the construction sector experiencing a significant decline [9]. - The service sector remains relatively stable, with a slight decrease in the service business activity index to around 49.5% [10]. - The service industry shows optimistic expectations, with a business activity expectation index of 57.1%, indicating a positive outlook for the upcoming Spring Festival consumption [10].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced continued fluctuations, with Wind All A index down by 0.23% and a trading volume of 3.26 trillion yuan, while the food and beverage sector led the gains [9] - The CSI 1000 index fell by 0.8%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.97%, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.76%, and the SSE 50 index increased by 1.65% [9] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced, providing fundamental support for the indices, including the establishment of a national-level merger fund and the regulation of local economic promotion behaviors [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to advance significant high-tech industry projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [9] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [9] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [9] Market Sentiment - The recent adjustment in the margin requirement for financing securities from 80% to 100% has increased risk-averse sentiment among investors, leading to a high-level fluctuation mode in the market [9] - The current bull market is driven by breakthroughs in technology sectors and geopolitical uncertainties, with a low risk of significant index declines in the medium to long term [9] Bond Market - The bond futures market saw slight increases, with the 30-year main contract up by 0.07% and the 10-year main contract up by 0.06% [10] - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 354 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [10][11] Precious Metals - Gold prices reached a peak of 5,594 USD/ounce before a rapid decline, indicating high market bullish sentiment but also the risk of profit-taking [11] - The gold-silver ratio is around 46.2, with significant volatility expected in silver prices, while platinum and palladium are experiencing high-level fluctuations [11]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 顺周期板块后续表现或仍值得期待 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当前大宗商品的轮动行情契合"避险资产、工业需求、能源传导、民生终端" 的路径。2025 年至今，贵金属率先开启牛市，成为周期行情的先行者；随后工业 金属接棒，铜价创下历史新高，碳酸锂上演 V 型反转，背后是新能源、AI 算力等 新兴产业的刚性需求与供给端约束的共振。如今有色板块的上涨，正是这一轮动 逻辑的中期演绎，而按照传导顺序，能源化工与煤炭或将承接行情扩散。 在全球流动性宽松预期下，随着反内卷政策持续推进，国内稳增长政策持续 发力，经济供需格局有望改善，复苏预期强化，直接利好对经济敏感的板块，后 续经济数据（如 PPI）若持续改善，将验证复苏逻辑，驱动顺周期板块上行。可 逢低关注稀土、化工、煤炭、有色金属、基建、地产等板块，周期板块后续表现 或仍值得期待。 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 周三晨报提醒，依托上证 50 ...