美元上涨，从最高法院推翻美国总统特朗普大部分关税后的跌势中回升。德国商业银行的Michael Pfister在一份报告中称，鉴于特朗普迅速征收新关税，美元最初可能由财政担忧引发的疲软走势已经消 退。他表示，"不过，不确定性可能仍会很高。"一项10%的关税已于周二生效，此前特朗普在法院裁决 后不久签署了一项行政命令。此后他威胁要将关税提高到15%，但尚未发布正式提高税率的指令。 美元上涨，从最高法院推翻美国总统特朗普大部分关税后的跌势中回升。德国商业银行的Michael Pfister在一份报告中称，鉴于特朗普迅速征收新关税，美元最初可能由财政担忧引发的疲软走势已经消 退。他表示，"不过，不确定性可能仍会很高。"一项10%的关税已于周二生效，此前特朗普在法院裁决 后不久签署了一项行政命令。此后他威胁要将关税提高到15%，但尚未发布正式提高税率的指令。 责任编辑：何云 责任编辑：何云 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent reports suggest that gold prices may stabilize above the $5,000 per ounce mark due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is likely to keep gold prices above the critical level of $5,000 per ounce [1] - Ongoing negotiations in the region could quickly influence the price movements of gold [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A genuine de-escalation of tensions may weaken safe-haven demand for gold, while renewed friction could drive investors to establish defensive positions in gold [1] - Other macroeconomic factors such as real yields, dollar movements, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations may also impact the price of gold [1]

关于新关税措施的持久性也存在讨论，有观点认为，美国国会不太可能将其延长至法定的150天期限之 后，这为政策的未来走向增添了不确定性。 截至周二亚洲时段，该指数在经历连续两日下跌后，围绕97.80一线波动。市场参与者正密切关注即将 公布的美国ADP就业变化四周均值数据，以及美联储官员后续的公开讲话，以寻求更多关于劳动力市场 状况和货币政策路径的线索。 从当前市场环境来看，美元正面临多重潜在挑战。一个核心因素在于全球贸易政策的不确定性加剧，这 可能正在影响外国投资者的资产配置偏好，导致其在一定程度上规避美元资产。具体而言，美国政府的 贸易政策动向出现新的变化。 据报道，当局正考虑根据1962年《贸易扩展法》第232条，对六个特定行业实施新的国家安全关税。此 举的背景是上周最高法院的一项裁决，该裁决取消了其上一任期内的几项相关征税。需要区分的是，这 些潜在的行业性措施与近期已宣布的其他全球性关税计划属于不同的政策路径。 美国贸易政策的这些新动向已引发其主要贸易伙伴的反应。欧盟方面已表态，可能暂停与美国之间的贸 易协议批准程序。印度与美国原定为期三天的、旨在敲定临时贸易协议的会议也被推迟，原因在于美方 正在对其更广泛 ...

此外，从宏观环境看，当前形势也较为有利。IMF预计2026年全球经济将保持温和增长，新兴市场增速 预计将高出发达经济体2.4个百分点。美联储有望进一步降息，而市场对衰退的担忧有限。换言之，全 球经济既不过热，也不过冷，这种环境往往有利于投资者将资金投向风险略高但增长更快的市场。新兴 市场本轮上涨的基础也并非单一逻辑所支撑。从估值折价到制度改善，再到相对增长优势，这轮"牛 市"或许才刚刚开始。（蒋礼译） 尽管近年来许多新兴经济体，尤其是亚洲国家，更多以本币融资，但仍有不少美元计价债务。美元走弱 将降低偿债成本，并利好以美元计价的国际贸易，如大宗商品出口。同时，资本若持续流出美国，必然 流向其他市场。值得注意的是，主动型基金经理对新兴市场股票的平均配置比例接近20年来低点，这意 味着一旦资金重新布局，新兴市场可能成为重要选项。不过，新兴市场的投资逻辑并不完全依赖"卖出 美国"。即便对坚定的"美国优先"投资者而言，新兴市场仍具吸引力，原因主要在于估值优势、经济韧 性以及全球增长前景。 首先是估值优势。以未来一年预期盈利计算，新兴市场股票市盈率约为13倍，从历史角度看并不便宜， 但与美国标普500指数相比，仍存在约4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment for basic metals is cautious, with most prices under pressure due to a strong dollar and shifting macroeconomic expectations, while aluminum shows resilience due to its favorable supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 1: Price Movements - Copper prices have significantly retreated, with 1 copper reported at 100,680 yuan/ton, down 1,940 yuan, primarily due to macroeconomic sentiment and adjustments in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2]. - Aluminum is the only metal to show an increase, with A00 aluminum priced at 24,030 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, supported by a solid long-term supply-demand outlook and relatively low social inventory levels [2]. - Zinc prices have slightly weakened, with 0 and 1 zinc at 24,050 yuan/ton and 23,950 yuan/ton respectively, both down 150 yuan, reflecting concerns over weak demand in traditional sectors [2]. - Lead prices have also declined, with 1 lead at 17,350 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan, amid a lack of consumer demand and a cautious market atmosphere [2]. - Tin prices have corrected from previous highs, with 1 tin at 351,000 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and uncertainties regarding semiconductor demand recovery [3]. - Nickel prices have seen a significant drop, with 1 nickel at 143,850 yuan/ton, down 6,200 yuan, largely due to its sensitivity to dollar and interest rate expectations, alongside concerns over oversupply [3]. Group 2: Market Influences - The overall decline in metal prices is attributed to a strong dollar and a shift in macroeconomic sentiment, with aluminum standing out due to its strong fundamental logic [4]. - Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, which could influence short-term market direction [4]. - The market is currently at a critical juncture dominated by macroeconomic factors, with a cautious sentiment and a re-evaluation of Federal Reserve policies shaping asset prices [4]. Group 3: Potential Catalysts for Recovery - A potential rebound in metal prices could be catalyzed by weaker-than-expected non-farm data, which may reignite expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and lead to a dollar decline [6]. - Technical adjustments following the end of index rebalancing could alleviate passive selling pressure in the market [7]. - Escalating geopolitical tensions could trigger safe-haven demand, providing further support for metal prices [8].

尤其要注意2026年2月底、3月和4月，在美联储新主席就任前，美元没有单边下跌趋势。美元出现震荡 走势。甚至一段时间，震荡上涨走势。 先说结论：美元短期震荡看涨，虽然长期看跌。 一是：散户看空美元，对美元的看空程度达到去年 6 月以来最高。现在看空美元的人太多了。有可能美 元并不会和大部分散户预期的那样直接下跌。美元有可能先上涨一波。然后才下跌。目前看空的散户， 有可能亏钱。 二是：美联储公布的1月会议纪要显示，政策制定者似乎不急于降息，且如果通胀持续居高不下，部分 官员对加息持开放态度。在现任主席鲍威尔的任期结束前，美联储至少没有迫切需要再次降息。 三是：投资者对美联储利率路径仍存分歧，短期维持利率不变的概率大幅上升，虽然中长期仍存在降息 预期。这使美元在高位呈现整理偏多的格局，而非单边下跌趋势。 总之：美联储降息预期的下降，美国经济数据持续走强，美元指数在强劲就业数据支撑与政策预期之间 维持相对平稳，短线震荡偏强特征明显。过于庞大的空头头寸，可能迫使看空美元的投资者平仓，空头 平仓，空杀空，为美元涨势添动力。 ...

昨日周四我们认为，美伊谈判仅取得有限进展，俄乌会谈也无果而终，这导致市场避险情绪再度升温，避险买盘支撑 黄金反弹，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注4950美元，其次4900美元，上方压力关注5010美元，其次5100美元。 从之后的走势看，昨日周四亚盘盘中，黄金回落4960美元企稳反弹，突破5000美元整数关口，至5021美元遇阻，欧盘 开盘后，至4974美元企稳，美盘开盘后，黄金反弹4998美元遇阻，回落4964美元企稳，反弹5022美元遇阻，继续保持 震荡走势运行；周五开盘后，黄金震荡回升，至5042美元遇阻，目前交投于5026美元。总体来看，黄金延续周三以来 的反弹走势，基本符合我们的看涨预期。 日线图上，黄金在上周反弹遇阻后，走势保持高位震荡，短线波动偏强运行。黄金下方支撑，可以关注5000美元整数 关口，其次关注4980美元，这是日内低点附近，也是周线MA5均线位置；黄金上方压力，可以关注5050美元，上周五 金价反弹接近这里遇阻，这也是本周高点附近遇阻，向上突破可以关注5100美元，最近半个月金价反弹主要在这里承 压。5日均线与MACD指标死叉放缓，KDJ指标形成金叉，RSI指标死叉上拐接近形成金 ...

中东地缘紧张局势为美元走势增添不确定性。美国总统特朗普19日划定10天左右的最后期限，称美伊能 否达成协议将在此期间见分晓，伊朗必须与美国达成有意义的协议，否则将面临糟糕局面。美方消息显 示，美军已做好最早于本周末对伊朗发动军事打击的准备，若谈判失败，美方可能向中东增派航母打击 群，确保伊朗无法拥有核武器或导弹。地缘风险推升的避险需求对美元形成短期支撑，但局势的悬而未 决也让市场担忧后续波动对美元走势的冲击。 多重变量之下，美元未来走向的不确定性显著提升，后续仍需关注美联储政策调整动向与美伊局势的最 终走向，判断当前美元波动是阶段性反弹信号，还是霸权地位面临深层挑战的开端。 当前美元正站在关键十字路口，美联储政策内部分歧与中东地缘紧张局势交织，市场对美元后续走向的 判断陷入分化。 美联储1月27-28日会议纪要显示，官员们就维持基准利率不变达成基本共识，但对未来政策路径存在显 著分歧。若干参与者提出，若通胀按预期回落，进一步下调利率将是合适选择；部分参与者主张保持政 策利率稳定，需等待明确的去通胀信号后再考虑宽松；还有参与者提议在声明中加入双向政策表述，将 加息纳入潜在选项，虽该提议未获采纳，但反映出鹰派声音 ...

Economic Data and Currency Performance - The U.S. dollar experienced a significant boost after a report indicated that new applications for unemployment benefits fell more than expected, highlighting labor market stability [1][11] - The dollar is on track for its strongest weekly performance in over four months, with a projected weekly gain of more than 1% [2][11] - The euro declined by 0.02% to $1.1768, expected to lose 0.8% for the week, influenced by uncertainty surrounding European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's tenure [2][11] - The British pound is nearing a one-month low at $1.3457, with a weekly drop of nearly 1.5% [1][11] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming release of the U.S. core PCE price index and advance fourth quarter GDP figures, which could influence currency movements [11] - Investors are currently pricing in approximately two Fed rate cuts for the year, although the likelihood of a cut in June has decreased from 62% to 58% [7][11] - The Federal Reserve is debating whether to lower rates to support the job market or maintain higher rates to combat inflation, with the PCE report expected to contribute to this discussion [8][11] Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact - Concerns regarding a potential U.S.-Iran conflict have provided safe-haven support for the dollar, as President Trump issued a warning to Iran regarding its nuclear program [6][11] - A major conflict could significantly impact oil and currency markets, raising questions about the dollar's status as a safe haven [7][11] Other Currency Movements - The Australian dollar decreased by 0.08% to $0.7055 but is set to lose only 0.2% for the week, supported by hawkish rate expectations domestically [11] - The New Zealand dollar is facing a 1.2% weekly loss due to a dovish outlook from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, with the kiwi trading 0.12% lower at $0.5967 [11] - The Japanese yen dipped 0.05% to 155.08 per dollar, following data indicating the slowest annual core consumer inflation in two years at 2.0% [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has risen slightly for the second consecutive trading day as forex traders bet against the Federal Reserve implementing three rate cuts by 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Hedge funds reduced some of their short positions on the dollar, as strategists question whether economic data, particularly inflation, can support the scale of rate cuts anticipated by investors [1] - The current pricing in the money market indicates an expected cumulative rate cut of approximately 64 basis points by the end of the year [1]