Group 1 - The price of gold reached a historical high on September 22, with various gold shops pricing gold jewelry at 1090 yuan per gram, while the lowest price was 1045 yuan per gram [1][5] - The investment gold bar price ranged from 852 to 869 yuan per gram, and silver was priced at 9.98 yuan per gram [1][6] - The spot gold market showed strong performance, closing up by 40.26 dollars, a rise of 1.1%, ending at 3684.40 dollars per ounce [1][2] Group 2 - The market is closely watching the upcoming release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is a key inflation indicator [1][2] - A series of important economic data is expected this week, including the September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), new home sales, durable goods orders, and the final report of the second quarter GDP [1][2] - Gold prices have surged nearly 40% this year, marking the strongest annual increase since the late 1970s [2] Group 3 - Current domestic gold prices are at 840 yuan per gram, while international gold prices are at 3717 dollars per ounce [3] - The international prices for platinum, palladium, and silver are 1429 dollars per ounce, 1181 dollars per ounce, and 43.63 dollars per ounce, respectively [3] Group 4 - Various gold shops in Hong Kong reported gold prices at 40880 HKD per tael, with all major brands showing an increase [8] Group 5 - The gold recycling price today is 827 yuan per gram, with platinum at 303 yuan per gram, palladium at 249 yuan per gram, and silver at 9.13 yuan per gram [7]

The FED’s week was somewhat controversial: the September decision of FOMC has perfectly fit expectations of getting the interest rate down for one step (quarter a point), having opened a path to more declines in Q4, 2025. US Treasury bond yields. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30Y Interestingly, despite the dovish signal, the US dollar had corrected higher, pushing other asset prices slightly lower. That represents the old trading adage: “buy the rumours, sell the news”. In this case, inflated exp ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【9月18日德国商业银行报告：加元走势受多因素影响，美元对加元汇率或降至1.3700】9月18日，德国 商业银行报告显示，因美国关税冲击加拿大实体，加元对走弱美元仅会逐步升值，对欧元将贬值。加拿 大央行周三降息25个基点后，可能进一步降息支撑本国。 报告指出，在美国与加拿大贸易不确定性解 决前，加元大概率持续承压。德国商业银行预测，到12月，美元对加元汇率将从当前1.3782降至 1.3700。 该行解释预测依据，美国"不稳定"政治局势、可能大幅降息及美联储独立性风险，都会拖累美 元走势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of gold has surged to nearly $3,700 per ounce, marking an increase of almost 40% from last year, driven by several key factors including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weakening confidence in the US dollar, and ongoing geopolitical risks [1][3][21]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The primary driver of rising gold prices is the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [5][7]. - Weak US employment data has led to a consensus that a rate cut is imminent, causing the US dollar index to weaken and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds to drop to a five-month low of below 4.1% [7][9]. - The declining confidence in the US dollar is evident, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping from 71% in 2000 to 58% currently, prompting investors to seek alternatives like gold [9]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, have increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty [9][11]. - Central banks globally have been significant buyers of gold, purchasing 1,045 tons in 2024 and 483 tons in the first half of 2025, indicating strong institutional support for gold [11]. Group 2: Risks and Considerations - Despite the bullish outlook from institutions like UBS and Goldman Sachs, potential risks include a resurgence of inflation, which could lead to unexpected interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, negatively impacting gold prices [11][13]. - High gold prices may deter consumer demand for gold jewelry, which accounts for approximately 40% of total gold demand, potentially affecting overall market dynamics [13][15]. - The strength of the US dollar remains a variable; if the US economy improves, the dollar may strengthen, putting downward pressure on gold prices [15]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to view gold as a long-term asset for risk hedging rather than a quick profit tool, suggesting a holding period of at least 3-5 years [17][19]. - It is recommended to invest in physical gold (like bars or coins) or gold ETFs, which track the spot price of gold and offer liquidity without the high costs associated with gold jewelry [19][21]. - A strategy of dollar-cost averaging is suggested, where investments are made in increments to mitigate the impact of price volatility [19][21].

Ray Sharma-Ong提到，美联储的回应机制正在转变，过去的利率决策主要围绕通胀的影响作讨论，仅管 经济预测摘要和利率点阵图均偏向宽松，但鲍威尔在新闻发布会上淡化了这些潜在信息，暗示对进一步 宽松政策持谨慎态度。市场对2026年初降息的预期过高：2025年剩余时间的每次议息会议仍可能进一步 降息，但该行预计在鲍威尔任期结束前，2026年不会出现提前降息的宽松周期。 美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至4.00%-4.25%，符合市场预期，重启自去年12月以来暂停的降息步 伐。安本投资多元资产客户专属方案全球副主管Ray Sharma-Ong称，美元短期内可能表现出韧性。在今 日(9月18日)的联邦公开市场委员会会议召开前，市场出现超卖，鲍威尔强调"没有无风险路径"，加上 美联储的职能重点是确保劳动力市场稳定，这降低了2026年大幅提前降息的可能性。限制了美元的下行 空间，该行预计黄金的涨势在此期间也将放缓。 Ray Sharma-Ong表示，刚上任美联储理事的Stephan Miran支持降息50个基点是唯一与其他理事不同的意 见，而委员会其他成员的平均降息幅度约为25个基点。由于另一理事Lisa Cook ...

东吴证券研报称，市场已充分定价3次的降息次数，全年降息次数没有进一步上调空间。因为就业的疲 软，市场对美国经济产生悲观态度，不过从领先指标来看，美国经济已有"复苏"迹象，如果经济超预期 上行，降息预期会进一步收敛。降息并不一定导致美元大幅走弱。从历史复盘的角度看，预防式降息导 致美元在一周后平均下跌，且跌幅相对较多（-0.91%），但一个月内跌幅收窄并转为上涨，未来三个月 和六个月平均上涨0.84%、2.02%。 ...

数据方面，16日盘中美国公布的8月零售销售月率好于预期，这使得金价在刺破3700美元整数关口之后 回落。但这一数据并未影响金价整体上涨的格局。与此同时，美元指数持续回落，逼近7月创出的阶段 性低点，且有进一步向下的迹象，也为金价的上行提供支持。 新华财经北京9月17日电周二（9月16日），国际金价再度刷新历史新高后回落。当日金价开盘3679.96 美元，最收盘报3689.59美元，全天波幅28.67美元，上涨10.68美元，涨幅0.29%。 从走势来看，虽然金价历史性刺破每盎司3700美元关口、整体保持强势，但日K线呈现有上影线的小阳 线形态，全天振幅不足30美元，预计在等待利率会议结果出炉之际，金价波动幅度相对有限。 具体来看，从基本面分析，市场对美联储重启降息的预期、挥之不去的地缘紧张局势，以及对美联储独 立性的担忧叠加投资需求的持续回升，共同促使近期黄金价格持续上行。随着利率会议的到来，是否降 息、降息多少即将揭晓答案，而美联储对未来利率走向的表态则将是市场重点关注点。 （文章来源：新华财经） 综合分析表明，在美联储利率会议结果公布前，降息的预期继续支撑金价维持强势。中期视角来看，降 息周期叠加地缘政治 ...

本周美联储降息基本已成定局，投资者将重点关注鲍威尔是否会进一步推进其近期的立场转向。投资者将密切关注一个关键信息：鲍威尔及其同事是否会将 今年的降息总次数定为三次，还是维持6月时的预期（当时就业市场看似更稳健，少数派官员预计降息两次）？上月，在一场备受关注的演讲中，鲍威尔对 就业市场的担忧程度超过了当时部分同事对通胀的担忧。如今的问题是：在8月疲软的非农就业报告发布后，鲍威尔是否会进一步强化这种担忧态度？若他 这样做，将印证市场对"未来几次会议继续降息"的预期，但同时也可能需要克服部分同事的顾虑——这些同事因对"中性利率水平"及"是否应将利率调至中 性水平"存在疑虑，不愿承诺如此快速的政策转向。 ---当日金银报价--- 现货黄金报3680附近美元/盎司； 基本面： 周三（9月17日）白银周二早盘震荡高位盘整，市场继续回落后支撑位附近多单布局，基本面消息现货银下跌0.2%，至每盎司42.64美元，盘中稍早曾触及 2011年9月以来的新高；铂金下跌0.5%，至每盎司1394.00美元；钯金下跌0.5%，至每盎司1178.14美元。美股三大指数周二在震荡交投中收低，投资者在美 联储可能降息前保持谨慎。投资者普遍仍 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that gold is currently at an overbought level, with a 14-day RSI of 78, suggesting potential profit-taking and increased volatility in the short term [1][2] - There is a lack of consistent trend in gold ETF flows, with significant inflows in US ETFs amounting to approximately $367 billion, while Chinese ETFs have seen outflows exceeding $26.5 billion, marking China as the only region with notable reductions [1][2] - The demand for physical gold delivery remains limited, as gold inventories have not significantly increased, indicating that the short-term squeeze on physical gold is relatively constrained [2][3] Group 2 - The market has fully priced in three interest rate cuts for the year, with no further upward adjustments expected, despite a pessimistic outlook on the US economy due to weak employment data [3][4] - Historical analysis shows that preemptive interest rate cuts do not necessarily lead to a significant depreciation of the US dollar, with the dollar often recovering in the months following such cuts [3][4] - The relative strength of the euro may be temporary, as the European Central Bank has limited room for further monetary easing compared to the US, which may alleviate downward pressure on the dollar if the US economy shows resilience [3][4]

Jefferies策略师指出，美联储主席鲍威尔的措辞很关键，若其强调通胀风险或增长前景不确定性，市场 或削减部分降息押注。 尽管市场对降息预期高涨，但美联储的沟通策略或将保持谨慎。凯投宏观亚太区市场主管托马斯·马修 斯指出，美联储很可能会继续采取一种不轻易透露过多信息的沟通方式，以避免过度引导市场预期。这 种谨慎的态度，旨在为政策制定留出更大的灵活性，并应对可能出现的经济不确定性。 新华财经北京9月16日电（王姝睿）美元周二在低位徘徊，市场对美联储即将开启降息周期并持续放宽 政策的预期压制美元走势。 美元指数日内跌破97关口，为7月7日以来最弱。市场普遍预期美联储将在周三的会议上至少降息25个基 点，近期美国劳动力数据疲软，成为降息预期升温的主要推手。Pepperstone研究主管Chris Weston表 示，"越来越多观点认为美联储政策滞后，需加快降息步伐至中性水平"，市场共识正趋向于美联储将在 9月、10月、12月乃至明年1月连续降息。 美国一家联邦巡回上诉法院15日裁定，美联储理事莉萨·库克可继续留任，驳回特朗普政府要求将其解 雇的紧急申请。这意味着美联储在当地时间周二和周三的议息会议期间，库克暂时可 ...