Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has strengthened against the US Dollar (USD), reaching a one-year high as the USD index declines, with the onshore CNY/USD exchange rate breaking key psychological levels [1][3]. Exchange Rate Movements - On November 13, the CNY/USD exchange rate rose to 7.0959, an increase of 213 basis points from the previous trading day, marking the highest level since mid-October 2024 [1]. - The offshore CNY/USD rate also surpassed the 7.10 mark, reaching a monthly high of 7.09400 [2]. USD Index Performance - The USD index reversed its upward trend, dropping to a low of 99.2914, reflecting a decline of over 0.15% [3]. Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasized maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming for stability in the CNY exchange rate [3]. Analyst Predictions - Analysts predict that the CNY will remain strong in the short term, with a focus on USD trends and the PBOC's intervention in the CNY midpoint rate. The CNY is expected to maintain a stable trajectory with limited volatility against the USD, with a low likelihood of breaking the 7.0 level before year-end [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market continues to run strongly. The end of the US government shutdown is expected to provide a liquidity buffer for the market, and the slowdown of US economic data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts, which enhances the monetary attribute of precious metals. However, the optimistic expectation of the government shutdown may weaken market risk - aversion demand and form resistance to the upward movement of gold prices. The weakening trend of the US dollar is expected to boost the precious metals trend in stages. Technically, the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing, with clear resistance and support levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 948.88 yuan/gram, up 12.9 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 11,880 yuan/kilogram, up 161 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract positions of Shanghai gold are 130,346 hands, down 6,311 hands; those of Shanghai silver are 233,585 hands, down 9,632 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 110,361 hands, down 161 hands; those of Shanghai silver are 119,859 hands, up 17,973 hands [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 89,616 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 591,884 kilograms, down 18,094 kilograms [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 950.3 yuan/gram, up 22.2 yuan; the spot price of silver is 11,903 yuan/kilogram, up 296 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is 1.42 yuan/gram, up 9.3 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is 23 yuan/kilogram, up 135 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: The gold ETF holdings are 1,042.06 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,088.63 tons, unchanged [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The gold CFTC non - commercial net positions are 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; the silver CTFC non - commercial net positions are 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total quarterly supply and demand of gold are both 1,313.01 tons, with an increase of 54.84 tons in supply and 54.83 tons in demand. The total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the total annual global demand for silver is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 30.84%, down 1.14%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 26.95%, up 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 21.98%, up 1.52%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 21.96%, up 1.49% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China's gold consumption in the first three quarters of this year was 682.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.95%. The increase in domestic gold ETF positions was 79.015 tons, a year - on - year increase of 164.03%, and the position at the end of September was 193.749 tons [2]. - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts to prevent the weakening of the US economy in the future and advocates a faster pace than the traditional 25 - basis - point cut. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but tariff - related inflation is currently under control, and the Fed should discuss whether to continue to cut interest rates on the basis of the 50 - basis - point cut this year with an "open mind" [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 35.9%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 23.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 22.7% [2]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - The daily RSI shows that the upward momentum of gold prices is increasing. The key resistance level for the London gold price is between 4,130 - 4,160 US dollars, and the strong support level is at 4,000 US dollars. The Shanghai gold 2512 contract is concerned about the range of 900 - 960 yuan/gram; the Shanghai silver 2512 contract is concerned about the range of 11,000 - 12,000 yuan/kilogram [2]

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has remained around the $4000 per ounce mark, showing signs of stabilization despite a slight weekly decline, influenced by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and mixed economic signals from private sector data [1][3]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. government shutdown has extended to 40 days, potentially becoming the longest in history, leading to delays in key economic indicators and reliance on private sector data [2][3]. - The ISM reported a decline in the manufacturing PMI from 49.1 in September to 48.7 in October, indicating continued contraction, while the employment sub-index rose to 46, suggesting some resilience in the labor market [2]. - The ADP employment report indicated an addition of 42,000 jobs in October, significantly above the expected 25,000, and the ISM services PMI rose to 52.4, indicating ongoing expansion in the services sector [2]. Labor Market and Consumer Confidence - Over 150,000 layoffs were reported in October, the highest level for the same period in over 20 years, contributing to a decline in consumer confidence to its lowest level in over three years [3]. - Despite mixed signals, economists generally believe the U.S. labor market is cooling, leading investors to lower expectations for the Federal Reserve's December policy stance [3]. Federal Reserve's Stance - There is a notable division among Federal Reserve officials regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in December, with some advocating for significant reductions while others caution against rapid cuts due to inflation risks [4]. - Various Fed officials expressed differing views on the current interest rate levels, with some suggesting they are near neutral and others emphasizing the need for caution in future rate cuts [4]. Market Conditions - Short-term financing rates are stabilizing, but there are concerns about potential increases in repo rates in the coming weeks, prompting speculation about the Fed's possible interventions to stabilize market liquidity [5]. - The Supreme Court is deliberating on the legality of large-scale tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could have significant implications for trade and economic policy [5]. Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Short-term resistance for gold prices is identified in the $4030-$4060 per ounce range, with key resistance at $4080-$4100, while support is seen at $3950-$3900 and critical support at $3850-$3750 [6]. - For domestic gold futures, resistance is noted at 930-950 yuan per gram, with support at 900-890 yuan per gram and critical support at 870-850 yuan per gram [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar experienced its second-largest monthly gain in October 2023 due to a re-evaluation of risk and expectations amid a government shutdown that delayed key economic data releases. However, analysts suggest that this strength may be short-lived, with potential downward pressure expected as structural slowdowns in the labor market become apparent [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The labor market is undergoing a deeper structural cooling, with hiring rates slowing down, which is not seen as a temporary fluctuation. This trend may lead to a reassessment of economic resilience and interest rates once official employment data is released [1][4]. - Recent private employment indicators have shown signs of weakness, leading to a decline in the dollar index and increased bets on future Federal Reserve rate cuts. This indicates that the dollar's previous gains were not firmly supported by strong economic fundamentals [4][5]. - The non-farm payroll report prior to the government shutdown indicated a slowdown in employment growth, with the unemployment rate reaching a near three-year high. Additionally, corporate layoffs in October were at their highest level for that month in over twenty years, reflecting a decline in consumer spending and overall demand [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Many institutions predict that once complete employment data is available, the dollar may face renewed selling pressure, particularly against the euro, which could strengthen if labor market weakness is confirmed [4][5]. - There are differing opinions on the dollar's future; while some believe it may not enter a long-term weakening phase, especially if the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach to rate cuts, others emphasize the importance of upcoming employment and inflation data in shaping market sentiment [4][5].

Core Insights - The global economy is expected to enter a more moderate and clearer growth phase by 2026, with the U.S. economy projected to grow steadily, Eurozone domestic demand likely to recover, and Japan's performance anticipated to be lukewarm [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation "comfort zones" are becoming visible in major economies, with U.S. inflation expected to slightly cool after minor fluctuations, Eurozone likely to maintain a stable new normal, and Japan's apparent inflation rate expected to decline [1] - The interest rate differentials among the U.S., Eurozone, and Japan central banks may converge next year, with the new Federal Reserve chair expected to lead the future rate cut path, projecting a total cut of 50 basis points for the year [1] Market Predictions - The outlook for U.S. stocks in the coming year is positive, while a cautious stance is advised for long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - The U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen after some fluctuations next year, with potential demand-driven opportunities in gold and industrial metals highlighted [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown is masking structural weaknesses in the labor market, which could lead to a decline in the dollar once economic data resumes publication [1] Group 1: Labor Market Insights - The absence of U.S. labor market data allows investors to overlook the potential trend of a structural slowdown in hiring [1] - The latest non-farm payroll report indicated a significant slowdown in job growth, with the unemployment rate reaching its highest level since 2021 [5] - Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported that the number of layoffs announced by U.S. companies in October was the highest for that month in over 20 years [6] Group 2: Dollar Performance and Predictions - The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for the second consecutive day, marking its largest decline since mid-October, as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The dollar has declined by 6.8% year-to-date, with the first half of the year showing the worst performance in decades [5] - Analysts predict that the dollar may face significant selling pressure, particularly against the euro, with expectations that the euro could rise to 1.20 against the dollar by year-end [6] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The ongoing government shutdown raises doubts about the Federal Reserve's ability to receive sufficient data to support another rate cut in December [5] - Morgan Stanley shifted its outlook on the dollar from bearish to neutral, indicating that a significant change in U.S. interest rate prospects is needed for the dollar to sustain its strength [6] - The narrative surrounding the labor market is becoming increasingly soft, which could shift the support from yield-driven factors to potential risks [5]

Group 1 - The bond market has shown significant movements this week, particularly with the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 4.16%, marking a one-month high [1] - If the U.S. Treasury yield continues to climb towards 4.21%, it may further bolster the strength of the U.S. dollar [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that AI's impact on the US dollar is complex and unfolds in three distinct phases: short-term support from capital expenditure, mid-term pressure from labor market disruptions, and long-term outcomes dependent on whether AI leads to deflation or a productivity revolution [2][3][6]. Group 2 - In the short term, AI capital expenditure is boosting GDP, providing justification for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance, which indirectly supports the dollar [3][19]. - Despite the rise of AI-related stocks, the dollar index has remained relatively stable, indicating that the surge in AI stocks does not automatically translate into a stronger dollar [8][12]. - AI investment is projected to contribute 1.2 percentage points and 1.3 percentage points to US GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 of 2025, respectively [15][18]. Group 3 - In the mid-term, as AI technology is applied on a large scale, it poses risks to the labor market, which could lead to increased unemployment and pressure the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, negatively impacting the dollar [5][22]. - The unemployment rate among the 20-24 age group is rising disproportionately compared to the core working age group of 25-54, indicating potential job losses due to AI [22][25]. Group 4 - In the long term, the dollar's fate will depend on whether AI leads to significant deflationary pressures or enhances productivity [26][28]. - If AI results in widespread deflation, it could force the Federal Reserve into a dovish monetary policy, leading to a depreciation of the dollar [28]. - Conversely, if AI drives a productivity revolution, it could increase real interest rates and attract global capital, thereby strengthening the dollar [28][29]. Group 5 - The article draws a comparison between the current AI boom and the 2000 tech bubble, noting key differences such as the nature of the leading companies and the capital flows involved [31][35]. - Unlike the tech bubble, where the dollar remained strong, the current situation may see the dollar becoming more vulnerable due to unhedged foreign investments in US assets [38].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials' speeches provide key guidance for future interest rate cuts, while government shutdowns create safe-haven buying pressure, but a strong dollar continues to exert short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - Short-term gold prices are constrained by both the strong dollar and interest rate expectations, with safe-haven sentiment providing a floor, likely maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern [2] - Recent observations show gold prices faced resistance at the $4000 level and have retreated to the $3950-$3970 support range [2] Group 2 - The K-line remains below the 20-day moving average, with weakening MACD momentum indicating a bearish short-term trend; the RSI is in a neutral to weak zone without clear divergence signals [3] - If gold prices break below the $3950 support, they may test the critical $3920 level; conversely, if prices stabilize above $4000 and break the recent downtrend line, bullish momentum may regain control [3] - The current gold market is in a triangular consolidation phase, with the $4050 level being a key battleground for bulls and bears [3] Group 3 - Today's gold trading focuses on two key ranges: a larger range of $4050-$3950 and a smaller range of $4000-$3962; a breakout above $3990 could signal a buying opportunity [5] - In a volatile market, the strategy should focus on high-low rhythm management, executing high sell and low buy strategies, and waiting for effective breakouts to follow the trend [5] Group 4 - WTI crude oil prices have retreated to a critical support area, with significant weakening of bullish momentum and ongoing short-term downside risks [7] - A recent inventory increase of 5.202 million barrels has negated previous bullish signals, leading to heightened market caution regarding oil price outlook [7] - If oil prices break below the $59 support level, further downside may open up, potentially testing $58 and $56.8 levels; only a recovery above $61.50 would provide a basis for reversing the downtrend [7] Group 5 - The overall trend for oil prices is leaning towards a downward direction, with a focus on inventory trends and import changes; continued inventory increases could widen the downside potential for oil prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices have gradually recovered to the range of $3980-$3990 after a sell-off, but current price momentum appears insufficient to challenge the psychological level of $4000 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.16%, reaching a one-month high, which could continue to support the dollar and exert pressure on the gold market [1] - The bond market is showing signs of an independent trend, influenced by slightly better-than-expected U.S. private sector economic data, which may impact the Federal Reserve's decision in December [1] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Traders are currently pricing in a 61% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, but this is not guaranteed [1] - Any adjustments to the market's pricing of rate cut expectations will have a significant impact on gold in the coming weeks [1] Group 3: Seasonal Trends - The upcoming period from December to January is traditionally a bullish season for precious metals [1]