本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【12月25日展望2026年，标普500指数突破7000点成共识】展望2026年，标普500指数突破7000点似成共 识。原因在于盈利确定性增长、美联储宽松周期延续，以及非科技行业AI渗透带来增量空间。 不过， 市场分歧也明显，焦点在于"泡沫是否会形成"。若出现"过度刺激"与"情绪狂热"，不排除出现Evercore ISI展望的9000点场景。 ...

【导读】美股震荡，黄金、白银、铜都创下了历史新高 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场表现。 美股震荡上涨 12月23日晚间，美股三大指数震荡微涨。 黄金、白银、铜，盘中创历史新高 23日晚间，市场另一个关注点，就是大宗商品的表现。 其中，黄金和白银双双大涨并刷新历史新高。现货白银一度上涨2.4%，首次突破每盎司70美元；黄金则逼近每盎司4,500美元，在创 下逾一个月来最大单日涨幅后继续走高。 。 伦敦银 (现货白银) CFD 、 く 期 XAG 69.61 +0.59 +0.85% t a same 12-23 23:52:00 今开 持仓量 69.08 最高 70.65 振幅 昨结算 2.65% 最低 68.82 69.02 美元指数 98.1195 -0.1846% > 周K 月K 分时 五日 日K 更多, (0) - 均价:69.54 最新:69.61 +0.59 +0.85% 70.65 2.36% 0.00% 67.39 -2.36% 18:30 06:00 07:00 ------------------ 今年以来金价已上涨超过三分之二，有望创下自1979年以来最佳年度表现。 美股走势反复，美国商务部 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, precious metal prices are expected to remain high. However, the opening of positions by Guangzhou Futures Exchange and speculative investors may cause price fluctuations, especially for silver. It is recommended to wait and see or mainly buy call options in the short - term [5]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue due to great - power competition and de - globalization. The huge US debt and weakened Fed independence will increase the risk of the US dollar's credit. The allocation demand from global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. So, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Spread Information - **Price Changes on December 18, 2025**: London gold spot rose 0.1% to $4333.58 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.5% to $66.43 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 0.1% to $4363.80 per ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.4% to $66.58 per ounce. Shanghai gold futures (AU2602) rose 0.1% to 980.5 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver futures (AG2602) rose 0.1% to 15521 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Spread Changes**: Gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 5.8 yuan per gram on December 18, with a - 2.2% change from the previous day. Silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 26 yuan per kilogram, with a - 23.5% change [5]. Position and Inventory Information - **COMEX Gold Positions**: As of December 2, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 261331 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 43771 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 217560 contracts [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE gold inventory decreased 0.01% to 91716 kilograms on December 18, 2025, while SHFE silver inventory increased 0.03% to 912164 kilograms [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Market Index Information - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Changes**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.06 on December 18, 2025, with a 0.01% change. The US dollar index rose 0.18% to 98.40, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.29% to 3.49%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.24% to 4.16% [5]. Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On December 18, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.33% to 980.5 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 3.44% to 15512 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US November inflation rate was 2.7%, lower than market expectations. The US November PCE price index was 2.8%, the lowest since March 2020. The data increased expectations of interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank remained unchanged and sent a hawkish signal, and the US dollar index was under pressure. Geopolitical tensions also supported precious metal prices [5].

U.S. stocks traded higher midway through trading, with the Nasdaq Composite gaining more than 200 points on Thursday.The Dow traded up 0.44% to 48,097.08 while the NASDAQ jumped 1.08% to 22,938.56. The S&P 500 also rose, gaining, 0.76% to 6,772.76.Check This Out: Wall Street’s Most Accurate Analysts Give Their Take On 3 Materials Stocks Delivering High-Dividend YieldsLeading and Lagging SectorsConsumer discretionary shares rose by 2% on Thursday.In trading on Thursday, energy stocks fell by 0.5%.Top Headlin ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to remain at high levels, but with significant volatility due to upcoming key events such as US DPI, PCE, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy in the short term [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in a loose cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties are increasing, and the credit risk of the US dollar is rising. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to move upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - On December 16, 2025, compared with December 15, the prices of London gold spot, London silver spot, COMEX gold, COMEX silver, AU2602, AG2602, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) all declined, with decreases of - 1.3%, - 0.4%, - 1.5%, - 0.9%, - 1.2%, - 0.9%, - 1.2%, and - 1.0% respectively [5]. - The spreads and ratios of gold and silver also changed. For example, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by - 8.2%, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread decreased by - 633.3% [5]. 3.2 Position Data - From December 12 to December 15, 2025, the positions of gold ETF - SPDR, silver ETF - SLV, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, non - commercial net long positions, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions, non - commercial short positions, and non - commercial net long positions all decreased to varying degrees [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - From December 12 to December 16, 2025, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged, while SHFE silver inventory increased by 3.84%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.26% [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - From December 12 to December 16, 2025, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate decreased by - 0.08%, the US dollar index decreased by - 0.12%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by - 0.28%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by - 0.24%, the VIX increased by 4.83%, the S&P 500 decreased by - 0.16%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by - 1.48% [5]. 3.5 Market Review - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.6% to 971.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.3% to 14,666 yuan/kilogram [5]. 3.6 Influencing Factor Analysis - US economic data, such as the cooling of the employment market and the decline in retail sales, have increased the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, weakened the US dollar index, and boosted precious metal prices [6]. - In the short term, the precious metal market will be affected by key events, and prices are expected to fluctuate sharply [6]. 3.7 Medium - and Long - Term Views - In the long - term, due to the Fed's loose cycle, geopolitical uncertainties, and the increase in US dollar credit risk, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move upward [6].

基本面消息 12月12日，美联储降息打开上涨空间：12 月美联储降息落地且释放后续降息信号，正式开启宽松周 期。一方面使得美元资产吸引力下降，美元指数跌破 99 关口，而黄金以美元计价，美元走弱直接推高 了金价；另一方面降息让存款、债券等固收类资产收益下滑，降低了黄金的持有机会成本，促使资金从 固收市场流向黄金市场，推动金价上涨。 美国就业数据引发避险需求：美国上周初请失业金人数录得疫情后最大单周增幅，这一数据显示美国就 业市场可能面临新的压力，市场对美国经济走势的担忧情绪升温。在此背景下，投资者为规避经济不确 定性带来的风险，纷纷加大对黄金这一传统避险资产的配置，进一步助推金价走高。 黄金行情走势分析 黄金昨天来回震荡洗盘，凌晨上破日内高点，触及4285附近，80多美金的涨幅，最终收线在4285的位 置，以一根下影线很长的大阳线收线。根据昨天大阳，今天回落继续低多操作。日线支撑4230附近，大 概率不会给机会。顶底转换在4265附近触及可以做多，上方目标我们依旧看4308附近，也是前段时间三 角形破位给出的目标位，触及可以空。强阻力在4340-50附近，给机会还可以空。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保 ...

2)贵金属板块今日活跃。消息面上，国际现货白银升破60大关，截至12月9日收盘年内涨幅达109.97%。 12月10日，SHFE白银收涨5.44%。历史规律表明，美联储的宽松周期总是引发黄金、白银及大宗商品 的强势行情。目前伦敦现货黄金价格在4200美元关口徘徊，目前市场普遍预期美联储在周四凌晨的利率 决议上宣布降息25个基点，重点关注FOMC成员对2026年降息路径的指引，但后续政策信号或极度模 糊。若鸽派占据主导力量，黄金等贵金属价格有望进一步上行，建议投资者关注FOMC利率决策和美联 储官员讲话，关注黄金基金ETF(518800)和黄金股票ETF(517400)等产品布局相关机会。 今日市场探底回升，三大指数涨跌不一，深成指、创业板指盘中先后翻红，创业板指此前一度跌超 2%。上证指数收跌0.23%，深证成指收涨0.29%，创业板指收跌0.02%。沪深两市成交额1.78万亿，较上 一个交易日缩量1254亿。盘面上，地产股午后异动上涨，贵金属等板块涨幅居前，CPO、半导体题材午 后走强；银行、电力设备、计算机等板块调整。 1)今日建材ETF(159745)涨幅居前。消息面上，万科首个展期债券"22万科MTN ...

今日周三(12月10日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于14185一线上方，今日开盘于13761元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报14268元/千克，上涨4.67%，最高触及14388元/千克，最低下探13735元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银本周预期的做多点位在13250，暂时白银收盘在14300附近，本周下方的支撑点有两个，一个是 13650，一个是13250，如果能回落的话才能继续做多，没有回落宁可保持空仓观望。沪银长期看涨趋势 未变，沪银再现夜间5万手增仓，推动银价在刷新高。沪银溢价收敛至380元/克，沪银主力合约参考运 行区间13600-14350。 美国劳工部统计局周二报告显示，美国10月职位空缺数环比增至767万，升至五个月来的最高水平，高 于市场预期的715万。职位空缺是衡量劳动力需求的关键指标。招聘活动继续走弱：10月雇佣人数下降 21.8万，至514.9万。该报告同时包含了9月数据，9月职位空缺为765.8万，雇佣人数为536.7万。 综合来看，劳动力市场仍处于经济学家和政策制定者所称的"不招也 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in spot gold prices is attributed to improved market risk appetite and easing global trade tensions, leading to reduced demand for safe-haven assets [1][3] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - As of October 27, spot gold is trading below $4083, currently at $4070.17 per ounce, down 0.99% from previous levels, with a high of $4108.19 and a low of $4053.29 [1] - Last week, COMEX gold futures fell by 0.45%, closing at $4126.90 per ounce [2] - The gold market experienced profit-taking after reaching historical highs, with a peak of $4382.3 before a significant pullback [4] Group 2: Economic and Political Factors - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant disruptions in air traffic control, with over 5300 flights delayed on October 25 alone, exacerbating the situation due to staff shortages [2] - Economic forecasts indicate that if the government shutdown continues, the U.S. GDP could lose approximately $15 billion weekly [3] - The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows a 0.3% month-over-month increase in September, slightly below expectations, with an annual inflation rate of 3.0% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent drop in gold prices is primarily due to reduced safe-haven demand stemming from improved U.S.-China trade relations and geopolitical risk alleviation [3] - While short-term fluctuations in gold prices are expected, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the potential for a Federal Reserve easing cycle and lingering risks [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The short - term decline of the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract does not reverse the long - term upward trend. It is recommended to take a short - term short position, and the contract still has upward potential in the medium and long term [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations tomorrow [6] - It is recommended to avoid the short - term trading of gold for now [11] - Iron ore may experience a significant adjustment if it breaks below the important support level again, and the supply is expected to be loose in the long term [14][15] - For glass, the stabilization signal needs to be observed, and the subsequent drivers depend on policy - side stimuli [19][20] - There is a short - term long opportunity for eggs [23] - Pulp is expected to run weakly and should be treated as low - level fluctuations [27] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus (Shanghai Silver 2512) - The contract has been in a continuous correction recently, with a closing decline of 3.86% on October 22, and the settlement price dropped to 11,327 yuan [3] - The short - term decline is due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, profit - taking by funds, and overbought technical indicators [3] - The long - term support is solid, with a continuous four - year deficit in global silver supply and demand, and the industrial demand from photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles is growing [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indices opened lower, with a volatile trend throughout the day, and the trading volume shrank significantly [6] - The global trade tension has temporarily eased, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand, and gold had its largest single - day decline in 12 years [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold is currently highly volatile, and it is not advisable to chase long positions in the short term [11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - After the holiday, the terminal situation has not improved, and the molten iron output may decline periodically [14] - The supply is affected by long - term agreement negotiations and accidents in the short term, but the supply is expected to be loose in the long term with the commissioning of the Simandou project [15] Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has continued to accumulate this week [20] - The subsequent drivers mainly depend on policy - side stimuli and anti - involution policies for the supply side [20] Technical Analysis - Eggs - The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the egg supply is sufficient, suppressing the price rebound [23] - Based on the current price and cost, the egg - chicken farming is expected to incur a loss of 16.90 yuan per chicken [23] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has remained stable today, and the cumulative import volume from January to September is 2,706 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [27] - The domestic port inventory remains high, and the peak season in September was not prosperous, so the pulp is expected to run weakly [27]