文章来源：用益研究 3、非标信托平均收益率连续三月走势较为平稳。组合投资成为非标政信产品的主流模式，基础产业类 信托平均收益率表现较为稳定。组合投资将资金分散投向不同领域、不同资质主体的非标资产，有效平 抑了单项目收益差异带来的局部扰动。 4、本月标品信托发行市场整体走弱。其中，固收类产品作为标品信托发行主力，受开年"股债跷跷 板"效应影响，债市震荡整理、票息收益与资本利得双降，固收类标品信托产品的投资回报预期下滑， 叠加年末冲量效应消退后业务回归常态，发行节奏放缓。 5、混合类产品的平均业绩比较基准延续上升态势。混合类产品以股债配置为主，权益端受益于A 股结 构性行情亮眼，信托调仓增配高弹性热点赛道，权益资产收益显著提升。 一、政策及市场回顾 1、监管动态 主要内容： 1、本月资产管理信托成立市场遇冷，市场收缩态势显著。年末冲量效应消退叠加春节前资金回笼，信 托理财需求阶段性减弱，合规优质非标信托项目供给收缩了，以固收类标品信托产品为主的标品信托业 务吸引力减弱，发行成立规模均有较大幅度的下滑。 2、非标类资产管理信托产品成立显著回落，信托业监管环境依旧严厉，非标信托产品的额度供给有限 且合规成本相对较高， ...

Core Insights - The bond market has shown a narrow fluctuation trend, indicating a relatively weak bullish sentiment among investors, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in the near term [1][2] - The correlation between the domestic equity market and commodity prices, particularly silver, has intensified, with silver price movements acting as a barometer for equity market trends [10][12] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday may reduce investors' willingness to hold positions, leading to a more defensive investment strategy [16] Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield has remained stable within a narrow range of 1.80% to 1.90%, reflecting a lack of strong trading direction and investor sentiment [2][21] - Recent monetary policy actions, such as the central bank's net purchase of 100 billion yuan in government bonds in January, have increased liquidity but have not significantly boosted bond market performance [23][27] - The bond market is expected to remain cautious, with potential for further movement contingent on substantial positive developments in monetary policy or market conditions [27] Group 2: Equity and Commodity Market Dynamics - The domestic equity market has shown a strong correlation with silver prices, with significant price drops in silver leading to declines in the equity market [10][12] - The silver market has experienced substantial gains, with a peak price of $115.87 per ounce on January 29, representing a 105.45% increase since late November 2025, indicating a buildup of bullish sentiment [12][16] - The volatility in silver prices during the holiday period may amplify uncertainties for investors, impacting their trading decisions [16] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Investor sentiment appears to be cautious, with a tendency to avoid aggressive positions ahead of the holiday, suggesting a preference for flexibility and defensive strategies [16] - The interplay between equity and commodity markets reflects broader market sentiment, with fluctuations in silver prices directly influencing equity market movements [10][12] - The overall market environment remains uncertain, with investors likely to adopt a "watch and wait" approach until clearer signals emerge [27]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-06 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260204：商品流动性冲击之后，哪些品种被"错杀"？ 大宗商品市场每一轮流动性冲击和恐慌情绪急跌，在完成"清洗"高杠 杆、高风偏的超涨品种之外，部分依托于供需产业链改善逻辑的品种却也 被流动性风险"误伤"，在风险中心已渐进平息之后，被错杀和被误伤的 商品品种和板块，或再度回归各自基本面定价逻辑，迎来相比轮动式上涨 阶段更好的介入时机。 金融产品深度报告 20260203：黄金 ETF，2026 年 1 月复盘与 2 月展望 事件驱动盘点： 资产配置价值：宏观数据与政策预期在月内反复切换， 降息预期对黄金资产配置价值形成阶段性支撑，但政策不确定性上升亦 带来短期扰动。 货币价值：美元信用变化主导黄金货币属性定价，美元 指数与储备结构调整对金价形成阶段性影响，货币价值在支撑与压制之 间反复博弈。 避险价值：多区域地缘与政治风险交织抬升市场不确定 性，避险需求呈现事件驱动、脉冲式释放特征，为金价提供阶段性支撑。 商品价值：央行购金与投资端需求预期保持稳 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20260204 不同情境下，会有多少存款"超额"流出？ 2026 年 02 月 04 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 近期 A 股市场持续活跃，上证指数成功突破 4000 点整数关口，同时交 易活跃度同步大幅提升，在 1 月 26 日-30 日的一周内，A 股市场日均 成交额达 3.06 万亿元。当前市场在讨论居民风险偏好走强能否为股市 带来增量资金，进而形成"股债跷跷板"效应，且由于居民存款过去几 年迎来了快速增长，为资金流入股市提供了基础。为了评估这一场景发 生的可能性，首先，我们复盘了 2025 年第三季度的存款搬家情况；其 次，对 2026 年定期存款到期量进行测算；最后，复盘了过去 15 年中， 两次人民币存款余额下降时期，资金流向股市或股票型基金的情况。 观点 ◼ 2025 年第三季度是否出现居民存款搬家？ ◼ 2025 年第三季度居民存款新增规模超季节性下行，存在存款搬家现象， 但资金并未直接、单一流向权益市场，而是优先配置于银行理财、货币 市场基金等低风险资产；在权益市场指数站上关键点位后，股票型基金 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile adjustment, with major indices mostly declining, yet maintaining an average daily trading volume above 3 trillion yuan, indicating active market participation [2] - The market is shifting its focus from cyclical sectors to technology growth, with significant sector differentiation observed [5] - The adjustment in the market is influenced by two main factors: a sharp decline in precious metal prices and a return of the PMI data to contraction territory, raising concerns about the economic fundamentals [5] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased by approximately 1.86 basis points to 1.81%, primarily due to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect from the equity market adjustment [5] - The report highlights a significant drop in gold prices, with London spot gold experiencing a single-day decline of over 9%, marking the largest drop in nearly 40 years [5] - Lithium carbonate prices have also fallen sharply, with a weekly decline of over 18%, driven by profit-taking and stricter regulatory measures [5] Market Overview - The A-share market is characterized by a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.44% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.62%, while the ChiNext Index showed relative resilience [5] - The market's adjustment is attributed to the volatility in precious metals and economic data, particularly the PMI returning to a contraction phase, which has dampened overall risk appetite [5] - The report notes that the central bank's actions to inject liquidity through open market operations are aimed at stabilizing the funding environment ahead of the upcoming government bond supply peak [5] Sector Performance - The report indicates that sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, telecommunications, and coal have shown strong performance, while previously high-performing sectors like defense, electric equipment, and automotive have seen notable corrections [5] - The report emphasizes the need for investors to focus on sectors with genuine technological breakthroughs and solid order backing, particularly in the context of the commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence themes [9] Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the January PMI data has intensified market concerns regarding economic fundamentals, necessitating close attention to potential growth-stabilizing policies [9] - The report also highlights the importance of monitoring the central bank's liquidity management and government bond issuance pressures in the near term [5][9]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-02 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观点评 20260129：1 月 FOMC：平安夜——2026 年 1 月 FOMC 会议 点评 核心观点：1 月美联储 FOMC 会议以 10-2 投票维持利率水平不变，发布 会上 Powell 回避了所有的政治问题，其守口如瓶的行为弱化了市场对美 联储独立性的交易。由于此前市场已充分定价到 4 月累计降息概率仅 30%，因此决议与发布会上的利率指引并未显著冲击市场，而 Waller 投 票 25bps 降息的动作被市场视为鸽派信号，最终强化宽货币交易。向前 看，本月底仍需关注 Miran 理事到期后的去留和政府停摆问题，2 月上旬 需关注 1 月非农和 CPI 数据是否超预期让 3-4 月降息彻底落空、以及特 朗普是否提名美联储新主席，上述问题是未来商品涨跌的关键。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收深度报告 20260128：分子与分母的拉锯战：债市波动中不同权益板 块的应对逻辑 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 "股债跷跷板"并非一个稳定、普适的规律，其实质是股票与债券 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260201 债市窄幅震荡中等待新催化（2026 年第 5 期） 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20260126- 20260130）》 2026-01-31 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130）》 2026-01-31 东吴证券研究所 1 / 38 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 如何看待 2026 年 1 月的 PMI 数据，以及央行针对非银机构的流动性安 排？本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30），10 年期国债活跃 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年1月30日 债海观潮，大势研判 逆风中震荡 投资策略 · 固定收益 2026年第二期 证券分析师：董德志 021-60933158 dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980513100001 证券分析师：赵婧 0755-22940745 zhaojing@guosen.com.cn S0980513080004 证券分析师：李智能 0755-22940456 lizn@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 证券分析师：田地 0755-81982035 tiandi2@guosen.com.cn S0980524090003 证券分析师：季家辉 021-61761056 jijiahui@guosen.com.cn S0980522010002 证券分析师：陈笑楠 021-60375421 chenxiaonan@guosen.com.cn S0980524080001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 Ø 行情回顾：1月多数债券品种收益率下行；利率债方面，长期限利率债品种收益率下行；信用 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the January FOMC meeting was to maintain the interest rate unchanged with a 10-2 vote, and Powell avoided political questions, which weakened market perceptions of the Fed's independence [1][15] - The market had already priced in a 30% probability of cumulative rate cuts by April, so the decision and guidance did not significantly impact the market [1][15] - Future focus includes the potential departure of Miran, government shutdown issues, and upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data, which could influence commodity price movements [1][15] Fixed Income - The report discusses the "tug-of-war" between the numerator and denominator in stock and bond pricing, indicating that the relationship between stocks and bonds is not stable and varies with economic conditions [2][16] - When the economy performs well, stock prices may rise due to improved corporate earnings, but rising interest rate expectations can suppress bond prices and increase stock discount rates, leading to uncertain stock index directions [2][16] - Different sectors respond differently to economic drivers, with dividend stocks being more sensitive to discount rates, while growth stocks depend on future earnings expectations [2][16] Industry Analysis - The machinery equipment industry is experiencing significant growth driven by rising metal prices, with the global mining machinery market expected to reach approximately $135 billion by 2024 [3][17] - The report highlights that the mining machinery market has a high gross profit margin in the aftermarket, which accounts for about 50% of revenue, and emphasizes the importance of capital expenditure driven by rising metal prices and declining ore grades [3][17] - Investment recommendations include companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][17] Company-Specific Insights - Mingyang Smart Energy (601615) expects a net profit of 800-1,000 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 131-189%, with Q4 showing a turnaround in profitability [18][19] - Daikin Heavy Industries (002487) anticipates a net profit of 1,050-1,200 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 122-153%, and is transitioning towards a full-service solution provider [20] - Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) is projected to achieve revenue of 94.27 billion HKD for FY26, with a net profit of 8.87 billion HKD, reflecting a growth of 50% over three years, supported by strategic store adjustments and product upgrades [21][22] - Xianhui Technology (688155) forecasts a net profit of 350 million yuan for 2025, driven by overseas expansion and solid-state battery equipment layout, with a significant increase in profitability expected [23] - Ding Sheng New Materials (603876) anticipates a net profit of 520-550 million yuan for 2025, with a notable increase in profitability driven by rising aluminum prices and improved production efficiency [24]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变， 在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预期。美联储 主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米 兰立场一致。美联储在声明中指出，失业率已现初步企稳迹 象，通胀仍处于相对高位，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。 评：鲍威尔讲话表示，不相信美联储会丧失独立性，将建议下 一届美联储主席远离政治。在避险情绪推动，美元指数下跌及 美联储主席更迭等事件发酵下，黄金再度创新高，注意管控风 险，关注地缘扰动。 【短评-PTA】根据统计数据来看，现如今聚酯市场整体库 存集中在14-24天；具体产品方面，其中POY库存至14-23天， FDY库存至12-22天附近，而DTY库存则至13-25天左右。评：聚 酯库存不高。年底终端需求转淡，织机开工率稳步下滑，部分 聚酯企业开启检修，但PTA工厂亦坚持控产，社会库存延续去 化，PTA现货压力不大。近期成本端原油表现偏强，PTA绝对价 格仍主要跟随成本运行，关注原料市场走势。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月29日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com ...