Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting a slight decline in long-term bond yields and the impact of recent monetary policy actions on market sentiment [3][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 3,013 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, with 3,750 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan [3]. - The money market is described as balanced and slightly loose, with the DR001 rate around 1.30% and DR007 at approximately 1.47% [3]. - The stock market experienced a slight increase, influenced by the announcement of a reduction in the interest rates for three-year large-denomination certificates of deposit by major banks [5]. Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.845% and fluctuated slightly, closing at 1.829% after a day of trading [5]. - The article notes that the 10-year government bond yield increased by less than 2 basis points over the week, indicating a stronger performance in cash bonds compared to futures [6]. - Major banks have reportedly suspended the sale of five-year large-denomination certificates of deposit, with three-year rates dropping to between 1.5% and 1.75% [5]. Group 3: Interest Rate Movements - The weighted average rates for various repurchase agreements showed a slight increase, with RO1 at 1.43% (up 51 basis points) and R007 at 1.52% (unchanged) [4]. - The article provides a detailed table of interest rates for different maturities, indicating a general downward trend in yields for government bonds [10].

一旦掌握這7個人生複利公式，你的人生將開始快速成長 https://youtu.be/Uz0awqTLJeA 會員頻道的內容會依照這7個公式，一步步陪你實踐 👉 加入會員頻道，從第1個公式開始實踐：https://bit.ly/goldenrich-members ☕️ 如果你想免費支持我們，這裡有個簡單的方法： 👉 https://bit.ly/GET-IBKR 🙏 點擊連結沒有任何費用，每次點擊都能幫助支持我們的頻道。IB盈透證券：全球領先、備受信賴的投資平台，交易覆蓋150個市場，低成本、資金靈活，是多元化投資的理想選擇！ (Disclosures: https://bit.ly/content-disclosure) 【警告】黃金股市齊漲背後，是誰在收割散戶？美股黃金誰先崩盤？哪邊才是抄底暴富機會？ 最近這幾週，市場上有兩個大家都盯著看的焦點。一邊是美股，因為美國的就業、通膨數據不齊，加上聯準會內部對利率方向意見分歧，本來一路往上的股市，反而在主要指數上開始回落；另一邊則是我們的老朋友，黃金。隨著各國央行持續買金、美元轉弱，再加上市場對美元的信心明顯動搖，金價終於突破每盎司4000美元，寫下歷史新高。 ...

【笔记20251124— 债农日渐神经衰弱（-股市微涨+央行增量续作MLF+资金面均衡偏松=涨跌互现)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率涨跌不一。 央行公开市场开展3387亿元7天期逆回购操作与2000亿元国库现金定存招投标，今日有2830亿元逆回购到期，合计净投放2557元。此外，央行将于明日以 固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。本月MLF到期9000亿元。 不要去纠结于日内行情的波动，或者一两天行情的波动， 时间空间越小，市场的随机性越强，混沌状态越大，参考意义越小 。 ——笔记哥《交易》 今天看到一个魔幻现实：马斯克曾领导的政府效率部提前8个月解散。这证明：你能用第一性原理把火箭送上天，但无法用同样的方法运行政府。在政治 的舞台上，最高效的部门，往往也是最早领盒饭的那个。 资金面均衡偏松，资金利率平稳，DR001在1.32%附近，DR007在1.47%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 11. 24) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 ...

Hot News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate non - farm employment data into the November report. The November report will be released on December 16 [2] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the latest sanctions from the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production, and Russia maintains its annual oil production forecast at 510 million tons, adhering to the OPEC+ agreement [2] - As of the week ending November 19, national building material production was 4.4629 million tons, up 100,300 tons from last week; total inventory was 9.0549 million tons, down 490,500 tons; apparent demand was 4.9534 million tons, up 289,100 tons. National hot - rolled coil production was 4.1258 million tons, up 10,900 tons; total inventory was 4.5417 million tons, down 60,600 tons; apparent demand was 4.1864 million tons, up 27,600 tons [2] - According to the UK Telegraph, under a US - proposed conflict - ending plan, Ukraine may be forced to "lease" part of its territory to Russia. The Trump administration's agreement would make Kiev give up control of the eastern Donbass region while retaining legal ownership, and Russia would pay an undisclosed rent for actual control [2] - An East China medium - large recycled lead smelting enterprise's application for renewing the hazardous waste business license was rejected due to incomplete transformation and installation of the MVR facility in its sewage treatment station, not meeting relevant regulations [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and crude oil [4] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 3.38% increase, precious metals 29.01%, oilseeds and fats 9.93%, non - ferrous metals 23.10%, soft commodities 2.67%, coal - coke - steel - ore 12.74%, energy 2.96%, chemicals 11.02%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.97% [4] Position Changes - The document shows the recent five - day position changes of commodity futures sectors, but specific data is not described in text [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% daily, the SSE 50 rose 0.58%, the CSI 300 rose 0.44%, the CSI 500 fell 0.40%, the S&P 500 rose 0.38%, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.38%, the German DAX rose 0.13%, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.34%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.47% [6] - In the fixed - income market, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.06%, the 5 - year fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year fell 0.03% [6] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index fell 1.36%, WTI crude oil fell 1.99%, London spot gold rose 0.26%, LME copper rose 0.77%, and the Wind commodity index rose 2.41% [6] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.53%, and the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged [6]

责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 ...

Core Viewpoint - The White House has indicated that the October jobs and inflation report is unlikely to be released, which may impact market expectations and economic forecasts [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The delay in the release of the jobs and inflation report could lead to uncertainty in economic indicators, affecting both consumer confidence and investment decisions [1] - Analysts may need to adjust their forecasts and models due to the absence of this critical data, which typically informs monetary policy and market trends [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets may experience volatility as investors react to the news of the report's delay, potentially leading to shifts in stock prices and trading volumes [1] - The lack of updated economic data could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions regarding interest rates and inflation control measures [1]

Core Insights - The potential ruling by the Supreme Court on tariffs could lead to a short-term positive impact on equities, particularly for consumer companies that have not yet recovered from pandemic-related challenges [2][10] - The current bond yields are perceived to be low, with expectations that they should be closer to 4.5% for the 10-year yield, raising concerns about government revenue from tariffs and the overall deficit [4][8] - The contribution of tariff revenue to the government budget is considered overstated, as the impact on corporate profits and subsequent tax revenues must also be taken into account [5][8] Tariffs and Market Impact - The removal of tariffs could be viewed as a tax cut, potentially benefiting the market and consumer companies significantly [6][10] - There is skepticism regarding the sustainability of tariff revenue, especially in light of the overall government spending of $7 trillion, indicating that the tariffs may not significantly affect the budget [7][8] - The discussion around tariffs has been ongoing for several months, with indications that the Supreme Court may rule them illegal, which could drastically change the market landscape [9][10] Job Market and Economic Indicators - Recent job market data indicates the largest drop in layoffs in October in 20 years, suggesting a significant slowdown in the job market [11] - Despite the negative job market indicators, some high-frequency data suggests that the economy may be moving past the worst phase and approaching slightly positive conditions [12][13] - The overall assessment of the American economy indicates a prolonged slowdown, with revisions and measurement issues complicating the understanding of the current state [12][13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Trump believes the U.S. stock market will reach new highs if the government is reopened quickly, citing the current economic conditions as historically strong [1][3] - Trump emphasizes that the government shutdown is negatively impacting the stock market and urges immediate action to reopen it [2][3] - The recent election results indicate voter dissatisfaction with Trump's economic management, which may affect the Republican Party's prospects in the 2026 midterm elections [1][3] Group 2 - The latest employment data shows a slight increase in private sector jobs in October, with an addition of 42,000 jobs following a revised decrease of 29,000 in September [5] - The ADP report serves as a crucial snapshot of the labor market due to the government shutdown delaying official economic data releases [5] - Despite the job increase, the overall trend indicates a weakening labor market, which may lead to further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has reached multiple historical highs over the past nine months, but the ongoing government shutdown is negatively impacting the market and needs to be resolved quickly to prevent further adverse effects [1] Group 1 - The stock market is expected to reach new highs again, indicating a positive outlook for investors [1] - The government shutdown is affecting various sectors, including food assistance programs and airlines, highlighting the interconnectedness of government policy and market performance [1]

Core Insights - President Trump claims that the stock market will reach new record highs [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a bullish outlook on the stock market [1]