机构：国金证券 研究员：姚遥 业绩点评： 经营分析与展望： 1、毛利率符合预期，净利水平环比下降。主要来自净利润板块，Q3公司在销量全面向上的情况下，毛 利率环比提升至14.5%，来自汽车业务的规模效应持续提升，是符合预期的，单车ASP也维持稳健： 但是净利润环比略微下滑，本季度净利润下滑主要来自：1）费用持续增长，虽然费用率表现平稳甚至 下滑，但总额看仍是在持续增长的，尤其研发费用增长迅速：2）其他收入下降。 2、展望后续：预计公司经营持续强势，但需要观望市场贝塔影响。 1）伴随Q4冲量效应延续，预计公司月销环比将持续增长：2）26年公司仍处于新车大年，其中的多款 车型均具备爆款能力：3）公司海外市场表现强势，出海正在持续加速。综合来看，公司处于冲量+强 新车周期+强海外开拓中，已经有强劲的经营动能。 我们重申，公司的核心优势是优秀的产品打造能力和较低的制造成本，这一点依旧在延续。但需要注意 的是：26年中低端市场预计厮杀激烈，市场需求或将受到影响，但吉利、比亚迪、奇瑞、长安、小鹏及 公司均处于强新车周期，也将影响公司的实际表现。 至于公司盈利问题，我们认为在碳积分合作加持下，以及公司的低成本路线下，公司盈 ...

Core Viewpoint - Leapmotor's Q3 2025 financial results show significant growth in revenue and profitability, driven by strong sales performance and accelerated overseas expansion, positioning the company for a robust new vehicle cycle in 2025-2026 [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 19.45 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 97.3% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 36.7% [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 150 million yuan in Q3 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in previous quarters [1] - Q3 gross margin improved to 14.50%, up 6.40% year-over-year and 0.89 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, attributed to scale effects and cost management [2] Group 2: Sales and Market Expansion - Q3 2025 sales reached 174,000 units, a record high, with a year-over-year increase of 102% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30% [1] - The sales structure is optimizing, with B/C platform vehicles accounting for 56% and 35% of sales respectively, while the low-priced T03 model's share decreased to 9% [1] - Overseas market performance is accelerating, with 38,000 units exported from January to September 2025 and a 50% quarter-over-quarter increase in overseas registrations in Q3 [1][3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is entering a strong new vehicle cycle with multiple new models planned for 2025 and 2026, aiming for sales of 1 million units in 2026 [3] - Strategic partnerships and local manufacturing initiatives are expected to enhance revenue streams, with over 700 overseas sales points established by Q2 2025 [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 74.5 billion, 128.7 billion, and 170.7 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to grow significantly during the same period [4]

Core Insights - Leap Motor has achieved significant milestones by completing its annual sales target of 500,000 vehicles 46 days ahead of schedule, with a net profit of 150 million yuan in Q3, marking consecutive quarterly profitability [3][6] - In a generally loss-making electric vehicle industry, Leap Motor's performance stands out, with a Q3 gross margin of 14.5% while maintaining high R&D investments [6][8] - The company has a strong cash reserve of 33.92 billion yuan as of Q3, which supports its ambitions for higher targets and boosts investor confidence [6][8] Sales and Market Expansion - Leap Motor plans to exceed 1,000 sales outlets by the end of the year, targeting more tier-4 and tier-5 cities, while also focusing on overseas markets [10][12] - The company has exported 37,772 vehicles from January to September 2025, leading the new forces in the overseas market, with significant sales in European countries [10][12] - Leap Motor's overseas orders are projected to exceed 15,000 units in November, with a target of 100,000 to 150,000 units by 2026 [12][25] Technological Innovation and Cost Efficiency - The company maintains a low defect rate in its electric drive systems, significantly below the industry average, showcasing its commitment to in-house R&D [12][14] - Leap Motor's innovative technologies, such as the integrated electric drive and generator system, have led to substantial cost reductions and weight savings [14][20] - The company emphasizes a clear boundary in its R&D strategy, collaborating with top suppliers for traditional areas while focusing on self-research in areas that create competitive advantages [14][20] Product Strategy and Market Positioning - The launch of the D series represents Leap Motor's highest level of technology integration, aimed at meeting high market demand while maintaining competitive pricing [16][18] - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix covering various market segments, with plans for multiple new models in 2026 [20][22] - Leap Motor's strategy focuses on delivering high-quality products at reasonable prices, which is expected to drive market acceptance and sustained profitability [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [12]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first half-year profit, with both domestic and international sales accelerating significantly [3]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw the company report revenue of 19.45 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 97.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 36.7% [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 reached 14.5%, showing improvements both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increased sales volume and cost management [5]. - The company delivered 174,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, maintaining its position as the top new force in vehicle deliveries for eight consecutive months [7]. - The company is expanding its product matrix and sales channels, with a significant increase in sales service network coverage [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 32.16 billion yuan in 2024, 63.90 billion yuan in 2025, 113.20 billion yuan in 2026, and 174.00 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 92%, 99%, 77%, and 54% respectively [3][9]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2025, with a projected net profit of 738 million yuan, followed by 6.27 billion yuan in 2026 and 8.43 billion yuan in 2027 [3][9]. - The net asset return rate is projected to improve significantly, reaching 7% in 2025 and 45% in 2026 [3][9]. - The company’s cash flow per share is expected to turn positive in 2025, with projections of 15.74 yuan in 2026 and 18.80 yuan in 2027 [3][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jinyan High-Tech, is positioned as a leading player in the coal-based kaolin industry in China, with a strong vertical integration model that enhances its competitive edge in a challenging market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Position and Product Structure - Jinyan High-Tech is one of the few companies specializing in coal-based kaolin, with a comprehensive capability that spans mining, R&D, processing, and sales [1]. - The company holds a 5.4% market share in the coal-based calcined kaolin sector, ranking fifth in China, while it leads the market in precision casting mullite materials with a 19.1% share [1]. - The product structure is divided into two main segments: precision casting mullite materials and refractory mullite materials, which are essential for precision casting shells and refractory materials [2]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Resource Control - The production capacity for precision casting mullite materials is projected to decline from 117.9 thousand tons in 2022 to 105.6 thousand tons in 2024, while refractory mullite materials are expected to grow significantly from 5.2 thousand tons in 2022 to 25.7 thousand tons in 2024 [2]. - The acquisition of the Shuli kaolin mine in October 2021 has provided the company with a stable supply of raw materials, ensuring quality and cost advantages [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Revenue has shown a robust growth trajectory, increasing from 190.4 million RMB in 2022 to 267.1 million RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [4]. - The net profit has more than doubled from 24.4 million RMB in 2022 to 52.6 million RMB in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 46.8% [4]. - The gross margin has improved from 30.2% in 2022 to 36.7% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [4]. Group 4: Financial Risks - The financing costs have surged dramatically, reaching 3.71 million RMB in 2024, over 3.5 times the 1.04 million RMB in 2022, raising concerns about financial pressure due to increased debt [5]. - In the first five months of 2025, financing costs reached 3.19 million RMB, reflecting a more than 400% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. Group 5: Market Growth and Challenges - The market for precision casting mullite materials is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% from 2023 to 2028, down from 11.2% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a slowdown in growth potential [9]. - The refractory mullite materials market is expected to see a slight increase in growth rate, with a projected CAGR of 5.2% from 2024 to 2028, but overall growth remains limited [11]. - The company faces the challenge of maintaining its competitive edge and optimizing its financial structure amidst a slowing industry growth rate [11].

Core Viewpoint - Jin Yan High-Tech has successfully passed the listing hearing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its unique position in the coal-based kaolin industry and its vertical integration model, which is crucial for its competitive edge in a challenging market environment [1][2]. Company Overview - Jin Yan High-Tech is one of the few companies in China specializing in coal-based kaolin, with a complete value chain from mining to sales [1]. - The company holds a 5.4% market share in the coal-based calcined kaolin sector, ranking fifth in the industry, and leads the market in the precision casting mullite materials segment with a 19.1% market share [1]. Product Structure and Production Capacity - The product structure is divided into two main segments: precision casting mullite materials and refractory mullite materials, which are essential for precision casting shells and refractory materials [2]. - Production data shows a focus on precision casting mullite materials, with output figures of 117.9 thousand tons in 2022, 114.5 thousand tons in 2023, and a projected 105.6 thousand tons in 2024. In contrast, refractory mullite materials production is expected to grow from 5.2 thousand tons in 2022 to 25.7 thousand tons in 2024 [2]. Resource Control and Competitive Advantage - The acquisition of the Shuli kaolin mine in October 2021 has provided Jin Yan High-Tech with a stable supply of raw materials, ensuring quality and cost advantages in a volatile market [3]. - As of May 31, 2025, the estimated total mineral resources of the Shuli kaolin mine are approximately 18,649 thousand tons, with a controlled resource amount of 8,990 thousand tons [3]. Financial Performance - Revenue has shown a steady growth trajectory, increasing from 190.4 million RMB in 2022 to 267.1 million RMB in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [4]. - The net profit has more than doubled from 24.4 million RMB in 2022 to 52.6 million RMB in 2024, with a net profit margin improvement from 12.8% to 19.7% [4]. - Gross margin has increased from 30.2% in 2022 to 36.7% in 2024, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [4]. Financing Costs and Financial Risks - Financing costs have surged, reaching 3.71 million RMB in 2024, more than three times the 1.04 million RMB in 2022, raising concerns about financial pressure due to increased debt [5]. - In the first five months of 2025, financing costs reached 3.19 million RMB, reflecting a more than 400% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [5]. Market Growth and Challenges - The market for precision casting mullite materials in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% from 2023 to 2028, down from 11.2% from 2019 to 2023, indicating a slowdown in growth potential [9][11]. - The refractory mullite materials market is expected to see a slight increase in growth rate, with a projected CAGR of 5.2% from 2024 to 2028, but overall growth remains modest [11]. Strategic Expansion Plans - Jin Yan High-Tech plans to expand its production capacity, including a new production line with a design capacity of 40,000 tons for refractory mullite materials [9]. - The company aims to enhance product quality and automate production processes through the procurement of advanced machinery and technology upgrades [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Leapmotor [1][2][20]. Core Insights - Leapmotor has entered a clear margin-improvement cycle, with sustained profitability and enhanced gross margins driven by scale benefits and cost optimization [3][14]. - The company is on track to achieve its annual sales target of 580,000 to 650,000 units, with a revised forecast of 633,000 units for 2025 [4][15]. - Leapmotor's overseas expansion strategy is taking shape, with significant order growth and localization projects planned for 2026 [5][16][17]. - The company has established a comprehensive product matrix with four major series, enhancing its market positioning [6][18][19]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been updated, reflecting a strong model pipeline and expected market share growth [7][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Leapmotor reported revenue of Rmb19.45 billion, a 97% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 14.5% [3][14]. - The net profit for Q3 was Rmb150 million, marking a significant improvement from a loss of Rmb690 million in the same period last year [3][14]. - The company had cash reserves of Rmb33.92 billion at the end of Q3, indicating a strong liquidity position [3][14]. Sales and Delivery - Year-to-date deliveries reached 466,000 units through October, with management confident in achieving the full-year target [4][15]. - October saw single-month deliveries surpassing 70,000 units for the first time, reflecting strong demand [3][14]. Overseas Expansion - Leapmotor's overseas orders reached approximately 12,000 in October, with expectations to exceed 15,000 in November [5][16]. - The company aims for overseas sales of 100,000 to 150,000 units by 2026, maintaining a low-margin strategy for market penetration [5][16][17]. Product Development - Leapmotor has completed its ABCD product series, with new models set to launch in the coming months [6][18][19]. - The company is also developing a new category-creating product expected to launch in 2027 or 2028 [6][19]. Valuation - The updated revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is Rmb64.9 billion, Rmb94.6 billion, and Rmb127.6 billion, respectively [7][20]. - A target price of HK$73.51 is assigned based on a 1.0x price-to-sales ratio for 2026 [7][20].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor packaging and testing industry is currently experiencing stable and improving prices, with the company focusing on high-end packaging and testing services to enhance profitability [1] Company Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 316,995.50 thousand yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.23% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 48.87% year-on-year [1] Market Outlook - Growth in the IoT, computing, and automotive sectors is expected to further boost the company's profitability [1] - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, which will positively impact profitability through economies of scale [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to increase R&D investment, enhance market development, and focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvement to strengthen core competitiveness [1] - The company aims to effectively manage operations to improve performance and intrinsic value [1]

格隆汇11月17日丨零跑汽车(09863.HK)公布集团截至2025年9月30日止三个月(「2025年第三季度」)的未 经审核财务业绩。2025年第三季度的收入为人民币194.5亿元，同比增长97.3%，收入增长主要得益于： 整车及备件交付量的提升，带动整车相关服务收入同步增长。 2025年第三季度的毛利率为14.5%，2024年同期为8.1%，2025年第二季度为13.6%。同比改善主要由 于：(i)销量上升带来的规模效应；(ii)持续的成本管理；(iii)产品组合的优化；及(iv)其他业务的收入； 环比改善主要由於(i)产品组合的优化；及(ii)持续的成本管理； 2025年第三季度的公司权益持有人应占净利润为人民币1.5亿元，而2024年同期为亏损人民币6.9亿元， 同比盈利增加主要由于整车销量的增加及单车收益能力的优化； 2025年第三季度，公司的汽车总交付量为173,852台；10月，公司交付量再次突破新高，达70,289台，连 续8个月位居中国新势力品牌销量榜首，也是唯一一家月交付量超7万台的中国新势力品牌公司。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile reported significant growth in both sales and profits for Q3 2025, with total sales increasing by 43% to 761,000 units and revenue rising by 27% to RMB 89.192 billion, indicating strong performance in both fuel and new energy vehicles [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Geely's revenue reached RMB 89.2 billion, marking a historical high and a 15% increase from the previous quarter [5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 3.8 billion, reflecting a 59% year-on-year increase [5]. - The total gross profit for Q3 was RMB 14.8 billion, with an 11% quarter-on-quarter growth [5]. Sales and Delivery - Zeekr, Geely's premium electric vehicle brand, delivered approximately 140,000 units in Q3 2025, a 13% increase year-on-year, generating revenue of about RMB 31.6 billion [6]. - As of the end of October, Geely has achieved a cumulative sales volume of 2.477 million units for the year, reaching 82.6% of its annual target of 3 million units [1]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company attributed its profit growth to scale effects, cost control, and brand integration synergies, with net profit growth outpacing revenue growth [3]. - Adjusted net profit for the first nine months of the year was RMB 10.62 billion, a 59% increase year-on-year when excluding one-time items from the previous year [3]. Accounting Changes - Geely has changed its accounting policy effective January 1, 2025, from the "purchase method" to the "equity method" for joint control entities, impacting the way acquisitions are recorded and necessitating restatement of prior financial results [8]. - This change aims to enhance financial reporting transparency and align with international practices, affecting the financial data comparison for 2024 [8].