Policy Insights - The government has set a GDP growth target of 5.0% for 2023-2025, indicating a stable economic outlook[2] - The inflation target has been lowered to 2.0%, suggesting a focus on optimizing indicators rather than aggressively boosting growth[2] - Fiscal policies have seen marginal increases in deficit rates and special bonds, but these adjustments remain within previously disclosed limits[2] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy has shifted towards moderate easing; however, liquidity remains tight in the short term, indicating a cautious approach[2] - The government is expected to maintain a precise and effective policy stance rather than aggressively driving GDP growth[2][3] External Factors - The ongoing US-China trade tensions have led to increased tariffs, surpassing initial optimistic expectations for improved relations[4] - Gradual tariffs may peak in the second quarter, as both sides recognize the need for time to address underlying issues[1] Market Dynamics - Domestic demand is under pressure, and any upward price movements in domestic commodities may rely heavily on supply-side constraints[5] - Inflation is unlikely to show significant improvement in the first half of the year, with a focus on the second half for potential policy adjustments[6][7]

《 关税再加码，A股节奏仍将以我为主 》 本系列周度择时观点回溯表现（2023.1.1 至今），其中2024年全年累计收益53.69%。2025年至3 月2日累计收益4.66%。 每周思考总第617期 1 本周建议 | 预测标的 | 仓位建议 | | --- | --- | | 主板 | 高仓位 | | 中小市值板块 | 高仓位 | | 风格判断 | 小盘 | 观点简述： 春节后第四周市场终于开启调整，沪深300指数涨幅-2.22%，上证综指周涨幅-1.72%，中证500指 数周涨幅-3.26%。2月27日美国宣布对中国商品再加征10%关税，叠加传统2月末处置效应，A股出现 单日大幅调整。 基本面上，中国经济节奏仍把控在我们自己手中。 国内方面，继1月官方PMI明降实升后，周六 披露的2月官方PMI再度超预期回升，表明春节期间中国经济总体上保持平稳回升，考虑到2月美方已 开始对我加征10%关税，表明中国内生经济的活跃度回升部分对冲了外需波动，当然也要清楚看到当 前国内经济只是暂时稳态，在后续美国关税不断加码后仍需更多对冲性质的财政货币政策出台；海外 方面，上周五的美乌总统会晤成为全球焦点事件，最终矿产换和平的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. on Chinese goods, emphasizing that the A-share market will continue to be driven by domestic factors despite external pressures [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a significant adjustment following the announcement of a 10% tariff increase on Chinese goods by the U.S., with the CSI 300 index declining by 2.22%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.72%, and the CSI 500 index falling by 3.26% [2]. Economic Fundamentals - China's economic performance remains under domestic control, with the official PMI for February exceeding expectations, indicating a stable recovery during the Spring Festival period. The increase in tariffs is partially offset by the resilience of the domestic economy, although further fiscal and monetary policies will be necessary to mitigate the impact of escalating U.S. tariffs [3][4]. International Relations - The failure of the U.S.-Ukraine peace talks is highlighted, with the article suggesting that the U.S. is likely to withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The commentary indicates that the U.S. has provided the best economic negotiation terms to Ukraine, but the lack of military support from the U.S. undermines Ukraine's position [3]. Technical Analysis - Institutional funds continue to favor the main board, aligning with the fundamental outlook of a stabilizing domestic demand amidst increasing external pressures. The article suggests maintaining a high allocation in A-shares, particularly in small-cap sectors, as the market adjusts to the recent tariff news [4].