交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：李轩怡 电 话：13164701108 邮 箱： lixuanyi_qh@chinastock.com.cn 期货从业资格证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：F0018403 能化板块研发报告 2026 年 1 月 30 日 玻碱节后库存承压，价格偏弱运行 第一部分 前言概要 【纯碱】 在去美元化背景下，1 月有色及贵金属加速上涨，断崖式领涨于商品市场。本轮 商品价格普涨更像是随着全球金属价格上涨而出现的输入性通胀，但若上游资源价格 涨价过快，下游涨价能否顺畅传导，还是会进一步缩减需求有待观察，但这部分担忧 的计价预计会延迟到临近春节或节后释放。市场对春季商品普涨行情有一定期待，在 当前估值下对节后累库计价也比较谨慎。但随着春节的临近，库存压力将会愈发突出， 若宏观情绪边际走弱，价格易跌难涨。 1 月纯碱新增产能陆续提负，湖北新都，博源二线新增产能提量，逐步对纯碱供 应形成压力。2 月份预计 2 条浮法玻璃产线放水冷修，光伏玻璃产能或变动不大，重 碱用量预计下滑，春节假期期间部分轻碱下游用户放假，下游需求减少。通胀计价下 商品普涨，但传导上 ...

Group 1 - The global smartphone AMOLED panel shipment is expected to decline to 810 million units in 2026, down from 817 million units in 2025, marking the first drop after three consecutive years of growth [1] - The decline is primarily attributed to memory supply shortages and skyrocketing prices, leading smartphone manufacturers, particularly Chinese brands, to lower their procurement plans for 2026 [1] - AMOLED panel manufacturers have limited room for price reductions, as the price increase of memory components has approached or even exceeded the cost of smartphone display panels [1] Group 2 - The current memory supply tightness and price increases are driven by a surge in demand from AI servers, which prioritize storage capacity for high-margin products, tightening supply for the entire consumer electronics chain [2] - Geopolitical tensions and the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle have led to a weaker dollar, attracting speculative capital into dollar-denominated commodities, further amplifying price elasticity [2] - Many smartphone manufacturers still rely on a cost-oriented product line approach, attempting to pressure upstream suppliers like AMOLED panel manufacturers to control material cost increases, which may face significant resistance in the current cycle [2]

但实际情况是：AMOLED的降价空间非常有限。当前内存的价格涨幅已逼近甚至超过手机显示面板的成本，而AMOLED厂商在2025年已为了争夺市场份 额大幅降价，使2026年缺乏实质性让利的空间。 本轮内存供应紧张和涨价的直接原因是来自AI服务器的需求激增，存储产能优先向这些高毛利产品配置，从而使得毛利较低的整个消费电子链条的供给 趋紧。但除此之外，还有一个被忽略的因素就是地缘政治紧张加剧，同时美国进入降息周期，美元走弱，吸引更多投机资本流入美元计价的大宗商品市 场，包括黄金、白银、铜及半导体。这些产品的工业属性和金融属性叠加投资者的避险与通胀对冲需求，价格但弹性空间被进一步放大。因此基础材料定 价被重估，而这些材料位于电子产品的上游，进而将输入性通胀传导至中游与下游制造环节。 Omdia显示业务首席分析师郭子骄(Joy Guo)表示："许多智能手机厂商仍沿用产品线成本导向的思路，认为可以通过向上游供应过剩的元件(例如AMOLED 面板)施压，从而控制物料成本(BOM)增幅。但这种经验主义在本轮周期中将面临很大的阻力。许多厂商尚未充分意识到大宗商品价格重估对电子产业链 的冲击。如果上游成本已发生结构性变化，而下游 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京1月27日电中国外汇投资研究院金融分析师张正阳表示，从目前看，日本央行的理想路径 是将政策利率稳步提升至对经济既无刺激亦无抑制作用的中性利率水平。然而，中性利率本身是一个无 法精确观测的理论概念，对日本而言，人口老龄化、潜在增长率低迷都是潜在难题，加息节奏将极度依 赖数据。日本央行承诺会谨慎推进，任何一项数据疲软都可能导致加息暂停。 短期看，加息通过抑制日元贬值，有助于缓解输入性通胀，为物价稳定创造外部条件。但长期而言，物 价的真正稳定，依赖于薪资与物价形成可持续的良性循环以及企业生产率的提升。加息只是为这一循环 创造一个汇率不过度扭曲、通胀预期稳定的宏观环境。若加息过程操之过急，扼杀了内需复苏，可能导 致经济再度陷入停滞。从当下视角评估，未来加息或出现在2026下半年。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won has been depreciating against the US dollar, reaching around 1,470 won per dollar, close to its lowest level since the 2009 global financial crisis, with a cumulative decline of over 2% this year, making it one of the worst-performing Asian currencies [1][3] Economic Impact - The average exchange rate of the won against the dollar for 2025 is projected to be 1,422.16, marking the lowest level since the 1998 Asian financial crisis, with a significant drop in GDP growth rates [1][3][21] - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is expected to be between 1% and 1.15%, the lowest since 2020, with a contraction in dollar-denominated GDP by approximately 3.8% [3][21][23] External Factors - The depreciation of the won is driven by multiple external factors, including interest rate differentials between the US and South Korea, trade impacts, and a reshaping of the global currency landscape [5][6] - The interest rate differential, with the US Federal Reserve maintaining rates between 3.5% and 3.75% while the Bank of Korea has lowered rates to 2.5%, has led to significant capital outflows, particularly towards US assets [6][8] Trade Dynamics - The US's structural adjustments in trade policy have weakened the won's support, with a notable slowdown in exports from key sectors like semiconductors and electric vehicles [6][9] - The current account surplus has narrowed, further exacerbating the depreciation pressure on the won [6] Internal Structural Issues - The capital outflow from South Korea has shifted from short-term speculative to long-term strategic investments, particularly in the US, which has created a rigid outflow trend [10][11] - Domestic investment has been significantly suppressed due to the capital outflow and currency depreciation, with many companies planning to reduce local investments [18][19] Inflationary Pressures - The depreciation of the won has led to increased import costs, contributing to inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% in December 2025 [16][18] - The rising costs of energy and raw materials have particularly affected low-income households, highlighting the structural challenges in managing inflation [16] Future Outlook - The market anticipates a "short-term stabilization and long-term pressure" scenario for the won in 2026, with the government aiming to maintain the exchange rate between 1,400 and 1,450 won per dollar [27][28] - Economic recovery in 2026 is projected, with GDP growth expected to rebound to between 1.9% and 2.1%, driven by a recovery in the semiconductor sector and global AI capital expenditures [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates by 0.25% to 0.75% marks the first rate hike in 30 years, but instead of strengthening the yen, it has led to a significant depreciation of the currency, contrary to typical expectations of interest rate hikes [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Hike and Market Reaction - The initial expectation was that the rate hike would stabilize the declining yen and help control high inflation, but the yen fell sharply against the dollar following the announcement [3][6]. - Within a month of the rate hike, the yen's exchange rate against the dollar dropped by over 3%, marking the largest monthly decline of the year [5]. Group 2: Factors Behind Yen Depreciation - The lack of clarity in the Bank of Japan's policy regarding future rate hikes has created uncertainty in the market, leading to a sell-off of the yen [11]. - The Japanese government's approach of increasing public spending through debt issuance has raised concerns about the sustainability of its debt, which exceeds 260% of GDP [13]. - The strength of the US dollar, supported by higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, has attracted global capital away from the yen [15]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to statements from the Japanese government regarding Taiwan, have increased market risk aversion, further pressuring the yen [17]. - A general loss of confidence in the Japanese economy, driven by unclear policies, fiscal mismanagement, and geopolitical issues, has led to a significant depreciation of the yen [19][26]. Group 3: Impact on Japanese Economy and Society - The depreciation of the yen has resulted in imported inflation, making essential goods more expensive for consumers, while government subsidies have not kept pace with rising costs [20][22]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises, which constitute 99% of Japanese businesses, are facing severe challenges due to increased import costs and thin profit margins, leading to a 15% year-on-year increase in bankruptcies [24]. Group 4: Future Outlook for the Yen - The yen's future remains bleak unless three critical issues are addressed: the persistent interest rate differential with the US, the unsustainable fiscal situation, and ongoing geopolitical risks [26][28]. - Without significant policy changes and improved economic management, the yen could continue to depreciate, potentially reaching alarming levels against the dollar [30].

Group 1: Inflation Dynamics - Japan's inflation has risen above the 2% policy target since 2021, breaking a long-term stagnation and moving towards normalization of monetary policy[9] - The initial inflation surge was driven by external factors, particularly energy prices, which saw a nominal price index increase of over 400% from April 2020 to June 2022[23] - Core CPI and service CPI have shown significant upward trends, indicating a shift from external to endogenous inflation drivers[35] Group 2: Wage-Price Interaction - The interaction between wages and prices has strengthened post-pandemic, with nominal wage growth accelerating since 2022, reaching a 5.25% increase in 2025, the highest in 34 years[42] - The transmission effect of wages on prices is evident, as companies raise prices to maintain profit margins in response to rising labor costs[44] - Despite nominal wage increases, real wages remain negative due to higher inflation, limiting consumer confidence and spending[71] Group 3: Labor Market Changes - Japan's labor market has tightened due to demographic pressures, with the effective job openings-to-applicants ratio exceeding 1, indicating a labor shortage[59] - The proportion of non-regular employees has increased, which has somewhat mitigated labor supply issues but has limited wage growth sustainability[63] - Consumer expectations regarding wage stability remain cautious, with nearly 40% of households anticipating no change in future wages[71]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% is seen as a significant shift in monetary policy after decades of stagnation, yet the yen continues to depreciate, raising concerns about its ongoing weakness and the implications for the Japanese economy [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Currency Dynamics - The Bank of Japan's interest rate increase was aimed at addressing the yen's depreciation and rising domestic prices, but the lack of clear guidance on future rate hikes has contributed to market uncertainty [1][2]. - Market speculation suggests that the yen's decline is not yet over, with traders believing that the current environment allows for further depreciation before any government intervention occurs [1][2]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan, particularly with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle while Japan maintains a gradual rate increase, is reshaping capital flows and contributing to the yen's weakness [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications of Yen Weakness - The persistent depreciation of the yen is exacerbating import-driven inflation, increasing the cost of living for Japanese citizens, and undermining domestic price stability [3]. - Japan's reliance on imports for energy and resources means that a weaker yen raises import costs, putting pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises that struggle to pass on these costs [3]. - The ongoing yen weakness could lead to broader financial instability, affecting global markets through interest rate adjustments, currency fluctuations, and capital repatriation [3]. Group 3: Political and Fiscal Factors - The fiscal policies of the current Japanese government, including expansive economic stimulus measures, are viewed as a core factor suppressing the yen's value, with market participants expressing concerns over Japan's fiscal health [1][2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Japan's stance on Taiwan and regional relations with Russia and North Korea, are diminishing investor confidence in Japanese assets, further impacting the yen [2]. - The potential for government intervention in the currency market remains a topic of speculation, with past interventions providing a reference point for future actions if the yen continues to decline [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen is under significant pressure against major currencies, reaching new lows due to political uncertainties and economic structural issues, with market concerns about potential fiscal risks in Japan [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The yen has depreciated approximately 16% against the Chinese yuan, falling from 100 yen to about 4.3 yuan since April last year [1]. - The yen has also weakened against the US dollar and euro, recently dropping to a new low since July 2024, nearing the critical psychological level of 160 yen per dollar [1][2]. - The yen's decline is attributed to multiple factors, including the widening interest rate differential between Japan and the US, and political instability [2]. Group 2: Political and Economic Factors - Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's intention to dissolve the House of Representatives and call for early elections has heightened market volatility and concerns about fiscal sustainability [2]. - The recent rise in Japan's 10-year government bond yield to 2.16%, the highest since February 1999, reflects market reactions to political developments [2]. - Analysts express concerns that Kishida's support for fiscal expansion exacerbates fears regarding Japan's fiscal sustainability, increasing depreciation pressure on the yen [2]. Group 3: Structural Economic Issues - Japan's long-term currency weakness is linked to structural issues in its current account, with a shift to trade deficits and limited inflows from tourism [3]. - The outflow of funds for research and digital subscriptions due to insufficient innovation in Japan has contributed to the currency's depreciation [3]. - The current account surplus is primarily driven by overseas investment income, with limited capital returning to Japan, indicating long-term depreciation pressure on the yen [3]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions and Inflation - The yen's depreciation poses a dual challenge for the Bank of Japan, enhancing export competitiveness while increasing import costs and inflationary pressures [4][5]. - The Japanese government is closely monitoring the yen's decline, with potential intervention if the currency approaches levels that warrant action [5]. - The Bank of Japan's commitment to continue raising interest rates in response to inflationary pressures suggests a possible increase in rates one to two times this year [6].

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean won is experiencing significant depreciation, nearing its lowest level since the global financial crisis, primarily due to accelerated capital outflows by domestic investors and strong demand for US dollars [1][3]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The won has depreciated against the US dollar, reaching 1,479.3 won per dollar, marking a 0.25% drop and continuing a ten-day decline [1]. - The year-to-date decline of the won against the dollar exceeds 2.6%, making it the worst-performing currency in Asia and placing it among the weakest globally [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Domestic investors have significantly increased their investments in US stocks, with approximately $2.2 billion purchased by retail investors as of January 13 [1]. - Foreign investors are accelerating their sell-off of South Korean stocks, further intensifying the downward pressure on the won [1]. Group 3: Government Response - The South Korean authorities have implemented measures such as verbal interventions and the exemption of foreign exchange stability taxes to support the won, but these efforts have not effectively halted its decline [3]. - There is growing concern that the continued depreciation of the won may exacerbate imported inflation and suppress consumer demand, prompting the need for stronger policy responses [3].