Core Viewpoint - The Indian Rupee has depreciated to a historic low against the US dollar due to concerns over a 50% tariff imposed by the US, which is expected to harm India's economic growth and corporate earnings [1][4]. Currency Performance - The Indian Rupee fell by 0.8% to 88.26 against the US dollar, surpassing the previous record low of 87.9563 set in February [1]. - The depreciation of the Rupee has made it the worst-performing currency in Asia this year, primarily due to ongoing capital outflows [1][4]. Economic Impact - The new US tariffs are projected to reduce India's annual economic growth rate by 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points, with potential GDP impacts of up to 1% if the tariffs remain in place [5]. - Global funds have withdrawn over $13 billion from the Indian stock market this year due to weak corporate earnings [4][5]. Market Performance - The MSCI India Index has underperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index for four consecutive months, lagging by over 15 percentage points this year, indicating a trend towards one of the worst annual performances in over two decades [4][5]. Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut interest rates three times this year to stimulate the economy, which has weakened the attractiveness of Rupee-denominated assets [5]. - The depreciation of the Rupee has raised concerns about imported inflation, adding further pressure to the economy [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that as long as the US tariff measures are in place, the Rupee will continue to face downward pressure [5]. - The RBI may intervene in the market to stabilize the currency, as indicated by the RBI Governor's comments on maintaining active measures [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation characterized by low inflation and its historical implications, emphasizing the need for coordinated macroeconomic policies to stimulate nominal economic growth and stabilize prices [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The CPI has fluctuated around 0% for 27 months, while the PPI has seen a decline of 3.6%, marking 33 consecutive months of negative growth [2]. - The GDP deflator index has been negative for nine consecutive quarters, surpassing the conditions seen during the 1998 Asian financial crisis [2]. - The sluggish price environment has led to a decline in nominal economic growth, reaching new lows since 2023, which has weakened market expectations and increased financial risks [2]. Group 2: Policy Recommendations - The article suggests a dual approach to boost nominal economic growth by addressing both supply and demand sides, including incorporating a broad price index into macroeconomic targets and implementing unconventional counter-cyclical policies [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing fiscal and monetary policies, particularly through increased fiscal spending and the use of unconventional monetary measures to combat low inflation [5]. - The need for real estate market stabilization is highlighted, advocating for the removal of restrictions in first-tier cities to stimulate demand and improve market confidence [6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The article notes that the sluggish performance in real estate investment, combined with tariff impacts, has significantly affected the PPI, particularly through midstream chemical products, which account for over 60% of PPI fluctuations [2]. - It discusses the positive effects of recent regulations aimed at curbing price competition in emerging industries like new energy vehicles and lithium batteries, which have helped stabilize prices and alleviate operational pressures on companies [3]. Group 4: Consumer and Employment Strategies - To enhance service consumption, the article recommends stabilizing and expanding employment, particularly in sectors with high demand, and improving social security systems to support low-income groups [7]. - It advocates for increased fiscal investment in essential services and consumer subsidies to stimulate sustainable consumption growth [7]. - The article also emphasizes the importance of urbanization strategies that focus on human capital accumulation and consumption quality improvement as key drivers for future economic growth [8].

Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai gold (Au) rose 0.52% to 776.80 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.60% to 9160.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold rose 0.11% to 3392.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.31% to 37.89 US dollars/ounce [2] - The yield of the 10-year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.29%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.23 [2] - Au(T+D) closed at 769.83 yuan/gram, down 2.57 yuan or -0.33% from the previous trading day; Ag(T+D) closed at 9022.00 yuan/kilogram, down 161.00 yuan or -1.75% [4] - The London gold price was 3344.65 US dollars/ounce, up 10.20 US dollars or 0.31%; the London silver price was 37.08 US dollars/ounce, down 0.99 US dollars or -2.61% [4] - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.01 tons to 958.20 tons, a decrease of -0.42%; the SLV Silver ETF holdings decreased by 33.89 tons to 15305.76 tons, a decrease of -0.22% [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - Trump and his team pressured the independence of the Federal Reserve through personnel appointments, causing a significant rebound in gold and silver prices [2] - The director of the US Federal Housing Finance Agency is urging a judicial review of two loans of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and Trump called for her immediate resignation [2] - Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on the evening of August 22, and his speech will significantly impact the trend of gold and silver prices [3] - The fourth quarter will be the time to announce the new Fed Chairman, and there is a driving force for the interest rate cut expectation to further increase [3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - It is recommended to wait for Powell's specific statement in the precious metal strategy. If his monetary policy speech is significantly dovish, it is recommended to enter long silver orders on dips [3] - The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8885 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 4: Data Summary - For gold on August 20, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 3392.20 US dollars/ounce, up 0.99%; the trading volume was 13.06 million lots, up 1.04%; the position was 44.62 million lots, down -0.78%; the inventory was 1199 tons, down -0.17% [7] - For silver on August 20, 2025, the closing price of the active contract on COMEX was 37.90 US dollars/ounce, up 1.51%; the position was 15.64 million lots, down -3.00%; the inventory was 15816 tons, up 0.07% [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current US labor market has weakened significantly, and inflation still faces risks brought by tariffs, which allows the Fed to make relatively cautious statements on monetary policy in the near term. However, the Trump administration's interference with the Fed's independence is more significant, and Fed officials' statements on inflation vary greatly. After the release of non - farm data lower than expected, the objectivity of US economic data will be weakened, and Fed officials' views on monetary policy will have a greater impact on market expectations. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting this week, and the precious metal strategy suggests waiting for Powell's specific statement [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. US July PPI Data Shows Inflation Concerns, but Fed Officials' Statements Differ - US July CPI and PPI data show concerns about imported inflation. The overall CPI was lower than expected due to the decline in oil prices in July, while the core CPI was higher than expected mainly due to the sharp increase in used - car inflation and the impact of home - furniture prices. The US July PPI and import price data far exceeded expectations, indicating that the Trump administration's tariff policy has begun to have a significant impact on US prices [4]. - Fed officials' statements on inflation vary. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believes that the data shows an "unsettling trend" in inflation, but he hopes to wait for more economic data and advocates further interest - rate cuts under the conditions of slowing inflation and a stable labor market. St. Louis Fed President Musalem believes that tariffs are being transmitted to inflation, and a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in September does not match the currently announced economic data [5]. II. The US Labor Market Has Weakened, Focus on Powell's Statement This Week - The US July seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls change was 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The non - farm payrolls data for May and June were significantly revised downward, and government employment growth was almost "eliminated." In addition, the US manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs were both lower than expected [8][11]. - After the release of the non - farm data, Trump fired the director of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on the evening of August 22. His speech will have a significant impact on the trend of gold and silver prices. The market currently expects an 83.1% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, and there is also a pricing for another interest - rate cut in December. The precious metal strategy suggests waiting for Powell's specific statement. If his monetary policy speech is significantly dovish, it is recommended to buy gold and silver on dips [11].

Group 1 - The US dollar index rebounded, closing at 98.12, up 0.31% [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.340%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.771% [1] - Gold prices initially rose but ended up falling, closing at $3332.67 per ounce, down 0.09% [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, negatively impacting gold prices [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which could significantly influence gold and silver prices [1] - The gold market shows a bearish trend, with expectations of further declines, particularly testing the $3300 support level [3] Group 3 - Oil prices have shown weakness, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $62.56 per barrel, up 0.47% after dipping to a low of $61.44 [3] - The market remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions against Russia, although there are signs of easing concerns [3] - Oil prices are expected to continue fluctuating, with a focus on the $60 support level [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the London gold price dropped by -1.73%, and the London silver price fell by -1.46%. The gold-silver ratio decreased from 88.5 in the previous week to 88.4, the 10-year TIPS declined to 1.95%, the 10-year nominal interest rate rose to 4.33% (2-year 3.75%), and the US dollar index reached 97.86. The released US PPI data was significantly higher than expected, contrasting with the slightly eased CPI data, highlighting the impact of import inflation caused by tariffs and reducing the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut. Overall, it's hard to predict the trend of gold and silver. Gold is expected to weaken in the short term, but the price around 3300 remains a good buying point [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Overseas Spot-Futures Price Spread**: - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 dropped to -46.43 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -45.4 dollars per ounce [11]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 narrowed to -0.033 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -0.14 dollars per ounce [14]. - **Domestic Spot-Futures Price Spread**: - Gold: This week, the domestic gold spot-futures price spread was -3.72 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [18]. - Silver: This week, the domestic silver spot-futures price spread was -16 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [21]. - **Inter-Month Spread**: - Gold: This week, the gold inter-month spread was 6.26 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [26]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter-month spread was 71 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [29]. - **Delivery Cost of Long-Short Spread Arbitrage between Near and Far Months**: - Gold: The total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 7.57 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying December contract and selling June contract was 14.13 yuan per gram [32][33]. - Silver: The total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 94.29 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying December contract and selling June contract was 161.93 yuan per kilogram [34][35]. - **Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Spot Gold and Silver at the Shanghai Gold Exchange**: This week, for gold at the gold exchange, the deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the same was true for silver [36]. - **Inventory and Position-to-Inventory Ratio**: - Gold: This week, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.05 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 38.64%. The domestic gold futures inventory increased by 300 tons [38][42]. - Silver: This week, the COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.06 million ounces to 507.55 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 37.5%. The domestic silver futures inventory decreased by 16.83 tons to 1158 tons [40][42]. - **CFTC Non-Commercial Positions in Gold and Silver**: This week, the non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold and silver both slightly declined [44]. - **ETF Positions**: - Gold: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 6.27 tons [49]. - Silver: This week, the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 40.96 tons [51]. - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold-silver ratio decreased from 88.7 last week to 88.4 [53]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1M gold lease rate was -0.23%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 1.77% [55] Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [60]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Non-Farm Payroll Performance**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Probability of Fed Interest Rate Cut**: The table shows the probability of interest rate hikes or cuts in different regions and time points, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [76].

Group 1 - The U.S. economy is facing severe challenges, with inflation pressures rising and increasing uncertainty, highlighted by a significant surge in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in July [1][3] - The July PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations of 0.7%, marking the highest monthly increase since June 2022, which shattered optimistic expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1][3] - The surge in PPI reveals the underlying vulnerabilities of the U.S. economy, previously portrayed as strong, and indicates the adverse effects of the trade war initiated by the Trump administration [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. federal government debt surpassed $37 trillion shortly before the PPI data release, indicating a significant fiscal burden due to excessive spending and borrowing [5] - The high-interest rate environment means the U.S. must pay over $1 trillion annually in interest, further complicating the economic landscape [5] - The previously touted non-farm payroll data for July has been called into question, with revisions showing a decline in economic performance, suggesting a disconnect between reported and actual economic conditions [5] Group 3 - The inflation crisis has global repercussions, leading to a stronger U.S. dollar and capital outflows from emerging markets, increasing currency depreciation pressures [7] - The high borrowing costs resulting from the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rates are raising loan and investment costs for businesses worldwide, contributing to a slowdown in global economic activity [7] - China faces dual pressures from both domestic and international fronts, with risks of capital outflow and currency depreciation due to the U.S. high-interest rate environment, alongside potential impacts on exports from a cooling U.S. economy [7]

美国最新公布的消费者价格指数(CPI)数据显示,通胀水平略低于市场预期这令外界更加确信美联储将在9 月采取降息行动,与此同时,美国政府新一轮关税政策正在持续落地,对全球贸易、美元汇率以及输入性通 胀形成复杂影响,多重因素交织之下,黄金价格虽震荡加剧,但突破关键区间仍有待更多催化。 CPI低于预期 市场看涨降息 美国劳工部最新公布的7月CPI同比上涨2.7%,低于市场此前预计的2.8%,核心CPI(剔除食品和能源)同比上 涨3.1%,略高于预期,但整体通胀水平已呈现企稳迹象,分析人士普遍认为,这一结果显示美国通胀正在温 和回落,为美联储在年内转向宽松政策提供了空间。受此影响,市场对美联储9月降息的预期迅速升温,芝 商所的利率期货工具显示,投资者押注美联储将在9月降息的概率已大幅上升,几乎接近"板上钉钉"有经济 学家指出,在通胀缓解、就业市场降温的背景下,美联储已没有维持高利率的紧迫理由。 关税政策加码 输入性通胀成隐忧 就在市场期待宽松之际,美国政府的新一轮关税政策正在逐步实施,根据最新安排,美国对包括欧盟、日本 在内的多个贸易伙伴实施"互惠关税",整体税率创近九十年来新高;针对中国的关税也被提升至30%,同时 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a broad increase driven by optimistic market sentiment, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index reaching a historical high, rising 4.11% or 1637.12 points to close at 41456.23 points [1] - Southeast Asian markets mostly rose, with notable increases in Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index, which rose 2.41% or 36.09 points, closing at 1533.37 points, and Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index, which rose 3.17% or 231.58 points, closing at 7543.5 points [1] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The U.S. reached a trade agreement with Japan, where Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., and the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on certain Japanese imports [1] - On the same day, the U.S. also reached agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, with the Philippines facing a 19% tariff while opening its market to the U.S. [3] - Analysts suggest that the short-term market optimism may vary by country, with Indonesia and the Philippines less affected by U.S. tariffs due to lower export dependency [3][4] Group 3: Economic Growth and Forecasts - Southeast Asian countries reported better-than-expected economic growth in Q2, with Vietnam's GDP growing 7.96%, surpassing the expected 6.85% [6] - Despite positive growth, the World Bank downgraded economic forecasts for Southeast Asia, predicting growth rates of 5.8% for Vietnam, 5.3% for the Philippines, and 4.7% for Indonesia [6] - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth forecast was also lowered to 3.8% for this year, reflecting concerns over external economic pressures [6][7] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - Malaysia and Indonesia implemented interest rate cuts in July to support their economies amid a backdrop of declining inflation [7] - The AMRO chief economist indicated that the ASEAN+3 region has the capacity to introduce further stimulus measures due to generally stable fiscal conditions [7] Group 5: Risks to Japan's Economy - Despite the positive sentiment from the U.S.-Japan trade agreement, Japan's economy faces risks, including potential economic slowdown in the U.S. that could impact Japanese exports [8] - Analysts warn that increased tariffs could lead Japanese companies to relocate production closer to the U.S., potentially harming Japan's economic stability [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. Core View of the Report The report delves into the evolution of the Phillips Curve and its current state of alienation in the US, aiming to explain the Fed's policy dilemmas. It analyzes the factors contributing to the flattening and steepening of the curve and offers insights into the Fed's current policy stance, including reasons for delaying interest rate cuts [2][8][14]. Summary by Related Catalog Evolution of the Phillips Curve Theory - In 1926, Irving Fisher pointed out the inverse relationship between unemployment and price changes, emphasizing the impact of unexpected price changes on the economy [3]. - In 1958, Phillips proposed the negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the rate of change in money - wages, and drew the Phillips Curve [3]. - In 1960, Samuelson and Solow proposed the "unemployment - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the rate of change in money - wages with price increases and incorporating the theory of wage - cost - driven inflation [4]. - In 1962, Okun proposed the "output - price" Phillips Curve, replacing the unemployment rate with the economic growth rate. The combination of Okun's Law and the Phillips Curve forms the basis of the Keynesian policy framework [5]. - In the 1970s, Friedman and Phelps proposed the Phillips Curve with adaptive expectations, introducing the concepts of short - term and long - term curves and the natural unemployment rate [6]. - In the mid - 1970s, the rational expectations school argued that there is no stable relationship between unemployment and inflation in both the short and long term, and the Phillips Curve is vertical [7]. - After the 1980s, the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) became systematic, emphasizing forward - looking expectation management [7]. Alienation of the Phillips Curve - **Flattening**: In recent years, the Phillips Curve has flattened. From 1960 - 1983, the slope was 0.67, but from 2000 - 2019, it dropped to 0.03, making it difficult for policymakers to adjust inflation and employment. Factors include stable inflation expectations, supply - chain reconstruction due to trade globalization, and labor - market structural issues [8][9][10]. - **Steepening**: Since 2020, due to large - scale fiscal stimulus and supply - side disruptions after the pandemic, the Phillips Curve has shown a short - term steepening, leaving behind government debt pressure and weakening the curve's elasticity [11]. - **Underlying Cause**: The essence of the Phillips Curve's changes is that the US economy is no longer a closed loop, and the economic cycle's scope changes, leading to local breaks in the curve [12]. Understanding the Fed's Policy Attitude - **Two Concerns**: The Fed is worried about uncontrollable inflation expectations and whether tariff shocks and loose policies will lead to persistent inflation [14]. - **Reasons for Delaying Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's ability to suppress inflation is declining; the effectiveness of interest rate cuts depends on the smooth operation of the global dollar system; managing inflation expectations is crucial; and the Fed uses the CME FedWatch tool for expectation management [15].