广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂、工业硅、多 晶硅 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 朱迪（投资咨询资格：Z0015979） 电话：020-88818008 邮箱：zhudi@gf.com.cn 陈尚宇（投资咨询资格：Z0022532） 电话：020- 88818018 邮箱：chenshangyu@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、纯苯、短纤、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、PP、 甲醇、合成橡胶、橡胶、玻璃纯碱 2025 年 11 月 21 日星期五 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【20 ...

2025 年 11 月 20 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 碳酸锂期 货将震荡偏强 原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货大概率将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4592 和 4611 点，支撑位 4530 和 4520 点；IH2512 阻力位 3030 和 3041 点，支撑位 2998 和 2979 点；IC2512 阻力位 7100 和 7129 点，支撑位 7006 和 6948 点；IM2512 阻 力位 7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed policymakers were seriously divided on whether to cut interest rates in December at the end - of - last - month monetary policy meeting. The number of those who thought no more rate cuts were needed this year exceeded those in favor of rate cuts, and some centrists would depend on data. Almost all agreed to stop the quantitative tightening (QT) of reducing the balance sheet (shrinking the balance sheet) [2] - The BLS will not release the October non - farm payroll report but include relevant employment data in the November report, which will be released on December 16, more than a week later than originally planned and after the Fed's last meeting this year [2] - In the raw material segment, the rainy season is approaching in the Philippines and the nickel ore grade is declining, leading to tight raw material inventories of domestic ferronickel plants. However, the ferronickel production in Indonesia remains high, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. Recently, the ferronickel price has dropped significantly, and the raw material cost has decreased [2] - On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has been restored. With the end of the traditional consumption peak season and the expected demand from infrastructure and real estate, the production schedule of stainless - steel plants is expected to increase, leading to increased supply pressure [2] - On the demand side, the demand peak season shows weak characteristics, with low market purchasing willingness, and general overall inquiry and transaction performance. Therefore, the national stainless - steel social inventory shows a narrow increase trend [2] - Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, the bearish sentiment is strong, and it is at the lower edge of the downward channel. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the MA10 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,285 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread is - 105 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 12,970 lots, an increase of 2,685 lots; the main - contract position volume is 192,398 lots, an increase of 8,566 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity is 65,340 tons, a decrease of 2,970 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 8,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] - The basis of the SS main contract is 560 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons [2] - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 895 yuan/nickel point, down 5 yuan [2] - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel production is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 591,200 tons, an increase of 20,400 tons [2] - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly output of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 4,000 units [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, a decrease of 500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]

FICC日报 | 2025-11-20 股指维持箱体运行 市场分析 联储内部分歧大。对外方面，中国向日方通报暂停进口日本水产品。外交部发言人毛宁在例行记者会上强调，当 前形势下，即使日本水产品向中国出口也不会有市场。国内方面，中指研究院表示，今年前10月，重点城市二手 住宅累计成交量普遍保持小幅增长态势，10月市场活跃度有所下降。预计11月二手住宅成交量环比将有所修复， 但去年高基数下同比仍面临一定压力，短期价格或延续调整态势。海外方面，美联储公布10月政策会议纪要，决 策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。许多官员认为，在2025年剩余时间内维持利率不变"可能是合适之举"。不过， 也有若干位官员指出，若经济表现与预期一致，12月再次降息"很可能是合适的"。 支持降息的一方并未在人数上 占绝对优势，对于缩减资产负债表的量化紧缩行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。 股指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡，沪指涨0.18%收于3946.74点，创业板指涨0.25%。行业方面，板块指数 跌多涨少，有色金属、石油石化、国防军工行业涨幅居前，房地产、传媒、建筑材料、商贸零售行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额回落至1.7万亿元。海外 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes various financial and commodity markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures), precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector, with most sectors expected to experience fluctuating trends in the short - term [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices showed mixed trends with reduced trading volume. The pro - cyclical sectors supported the market, while TMT sectors declined. The four major stock index futures contracts had different price movements, and the basis spreads fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and consider bearish option bull spreads in case of a significant decline [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds mostly rose. The bond market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term, and a range - bound operation strategy is recommended [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The Fed's October meeting minutes dampened the expectation of a December interest - rate cut, and the risk of Japanese government bond sales affected the precious metals market. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. In the long - term, precious metals may enter a bull market, but in the short - term, market volatility may increase. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider a double - selling strategy for gold out - of - the - money options [7][9] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined. The futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term [12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and copper prices are fluctuating. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the downstream demand has strong resilience. It is expected that copper prices will fluctuate in the range of 85500 - 87500 [13][15][17] - **Alumina**: The alumina market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. It is recommended to focus on the production reduction of high - cost enterprises [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices are adjusting downward after a previous rise. The market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. It is recommended to focus on downstream start - up changes and inventory reduction [20][22] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The casting aluminum alloy market follows the adjustment of aluminum prices. The cost is strongly supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The short - term price is expected to be relatively strong [23][24] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc is expected to decrease, and the spot trading has improved. The short - term zinc price is expected to fluctuate, and the export of zinc may boost the domestic price [25][27][28] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the guidance of NVIDIA's quarterly report exceeded expectations, so the tin price is running strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [28][29][32] - **Nickel**: The nickel market is under macro - pressure, and the fundamental improvement is insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile [32][33][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market has weak policy and macro - drive, and the supply - demand structure has not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile [35][37][38] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is driven by strong capital sentiment, and the price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there may be high - volatility intraday market conditions later [39][41][42] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market maintains a pattern of both supply and demand decline, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation. The futures price is rising, and it is recommended to pay attention to the spot price support [43][44] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market has a pattern of both supply and demand decline, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. The futures price is rising, and it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices or use hedging strategies [44][47] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market has a low demand expectation, and the difference between hot - rolled and rebar spreads is expanding. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is not recommended to go long [47][48][50] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is fluctuating. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be in a high - level fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][54][55] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market is showing a weak decline. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand for restocking is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][60] - **Coke**: The coke market continues to decline. The fourth - round price increase has been fully implemented, but the supply and demand are under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [61][66][67] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The domestic soybean meal supply is loose, and the cost side lacks substantial benefits. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to pay attention to the dynamics of state - reserved soybeans [68][70]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-20 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity futures market shows complex trends with different metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended based on these situations [2][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market strengthened on Wednesday, but London gold failed to hold above $4100. Fed's internal divergence on December rate - cut, employment report changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are key factors. Suggest buying at support levels [2]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness is gradually easing. Recommend gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price stabilized yesterday. With improved risk appetite and low rate - cut expectations, and considering the supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum price may maintain oscillatory adjustment after a decline, with improved spot trading but continued reduction of long positions in the main contract [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [2]. - **Zinc**: Price declined yesterday. Due to supply shortages and demand - side factors, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rebounded significantly. With planned production cuts and cost support, long positions can gradually take profits, and short positions should be entered with caution [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Current demand is strong, but long - term demand may decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing highs, or consider selling put options [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Price rose. Near - month contracts are strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs due to factors like slow progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Price trended strongly. With improved risk appetite and supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Supply - demand is weak, and there is significant structural differentiation. Hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605, and the reference range for RB01 is 3030 - 3080 [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in iron ore 2605, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in coking coal 2605, and the reference range for JM01 is 1110 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans enter an oscillatory phase, and the domestic market is temporarily weak. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: As the supply in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline oscillatory. Hold short positions [7]. - **Oils and Fats**: Enter an oscillatory and slightly strong phase. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: International sugar price rebounds, and the domestic market will follow the international trend to decline. Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Temporarily wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13300 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory due to decreased supply pressure and weakening demand [7]. - **Pigs**: The supply is still abundant, and the futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [8]. - **Apples**: Wait and see due to low inventory and high - quality apple price increases [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillatory, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: Supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short or conduct spread trading [8]. - **PTA**: Take profits on long positions in PX, and short the processing margin of PTA in the long - term [8][9]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to conduct spread trading [9]. - **PP**: Short - term oscillatory and weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand accumulates inventory, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally bearish, but with high geopolitical uncertainty, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [9][10]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillatory, with the upside limited by the import window [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Urea**: The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to export news and supply - demand situation [10].

转自：新华财经 •港深联手打造全球金融科技高地 •"互换通"扩容在即 南向机制酝酿中 【资讯导读】 •特朗普炮轰美联储：称鲍威尔"极度无能" •美联储内部就降息分歧明显 缩表共识强烈 【市场资讯】 •香港财经事务及库务局与深圳市地方金融监督管理局联合发布《携手打造港深全球金融科技中心行动 方案（2025–2027年）》，明确未来三年将围绕六大重点方向深化协同，共建具有全球竞争力的金融科 技生态体系。 •香港金管局副总裁李达志透露，"互换通"将扩大交易商名单并优化流动性管理工具；证监会市场监察 部执行董事梁仲贤表示，南向"互换通"已进入探讨阶段，以更好服务国际投资者需求。 •美国总统特朗普再度批评美联储主席鲍威尔，称利率过高；"真想解雇鲍威尔，鲍威尔极度无能"；应 起诉其"建设成本问题"；并称其当选以来，股市在九个月内达到了46次创纪录的高点，以前所未有的方 式提振了美国人和经济，工人工资以60年来最高的速度上升。 •美联储10月FOMC会议纪要显示，决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧，但普遍支持年内暂停加息；几 乎所有成员同意立即终止量化紧缩，部分人担忧股市无序下跌带来的金融风险。 •道琼斯工业指数上涨0.1%报 ...

一些（Several）与会者认为可能适合12月降息，许多（Many）人认为今年内可能适合维持利率不变；多人认为今年提高关税对通胀影响有限，多数人 认为，在通胀高企且就业市场降温背景下，降息或加剧通胀风险、或被误解为降通胀承诺不够；一些人关注金融资产估值过高，担心若市场突然重新评估 AI前景，股价无序下跌；几乎一致支持12月结束缩表，多人支持提高短债持仓占比。"新美联储通讯社"：可能占微弱多数的决策者对12月降息感到不 安。 大多数（Most）与会者认为，FOMC转向更为中立的政策立场，有助于避免劳动力市场状况可能大幅恶化。"其中 许多（Many）与会者 还 认为 ，鉴于越来越多 的证据表明， 今年提高关税对整体通胀的影响可能有限 ，委员会应适当放松政策立场，应对就业下行风险。" 会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次货币政策会议上，美联储决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，支持降息的一方并未在人数上占绝对优势，对于缩减 资产负债表（缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时， ...

英伟达公布财报显示，第三季度营收570.1亿美元，同比增长62%，市场预期551.9亿美元；预计第四季度营收约为650亿美元，市场预期620亿美元。 比特币跌破9万美元关口，截至发稿时报8.97万美元，跌幅超3%，盘中最低报8.86万美元。 11月19日，新华人寿保险股份有限公司原党委书记、董事长李全一审被判死缓。经审理查明：2015年6月至2024年3月，李全非法占有相关业务收益，共计 折合人民币1.08亿余元。2010年至2023年，李全利用职务上的便利，为有关单位和个人在业务合作、基金认购等方面提供帮助，单独或伙同他人非法收受 财物共计折合人民币1.05亿余元。 11月19日，外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会。有记者问：中国向日方通报暂停进口日本水产品，您能否介绍相关细节和原因？毛宁表示，据我了解，日 方此前承诺履行输华水产品的监管责任，保障产品质量安全，这是日本水产品输华的先决条件，但是日方目前未能提供所承诺的技术材料。毛宁强调，近 期由于日本首相高市早苗倒行逆施，在台湾等重大问题上发表错误言论，引起中国民众的强烈公愤。当前形势下，即使日本水产品向中国出口也不会有市 场。 1 隔夜市场 美股三大指数集体 ...