贵金属深夜全线暴涨。 行情显示，比特币涨至93220.8美元，过去24小时内涨2.22%，为三周新高；以太坊涨至3168.62美元，过去24小时内涨1.08%。 截至发稿，现货黄金大涨超2%，冲破4420美元/盎司关口；现货白银大涨逾5%，升破76美元/盎司，现货铂金、现货钯金涨幅均超5%。 股市方面， 道指涨幅扩大至1.2%，创出盘中历史新高。标普500指数涨0.58%，纳斯达克综合指数涨0.66%。 | < W | | | 道琼斯工业平均(DJI) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 01-05 10:02:44 | | | | | 48960.81 | | 昨收 | 48382.39 | 成交额 | | 0 | | 578.42 | 1.20% | 今开 | 48475.81 | 成交量 | | O | | 上 涨 | 19 | 가 | 0 | 下 跌 | | 11 | | 最高价 | 48963.49 | 市留率 | 30.6 | 近20日 | | 2.32% | | 最低价 | 48449.62 | 市净率 | 8. ...

12月17日，当地时间周二，美国劳工统计局（BLS）一次性公布了10月和11月的非农就业数据，显示美 国11月就业增长依然疲弱，在10月表现不佳之后，劳动力市场仍在持续降温。数据显示，美国11月非农 就业人口增加6.4万人，好于市场预期的5万人；但失业率却意外升至4.6%，高于9月的4.4%，也略高于 预期的4.5%，创下2021年9月以来的新高。但与此同时，10月就业人数大幅减少10.5万人，降幅明显超 过此前市场预期的-2.5万人，全部源于政府部门就业的大幅下滑。由于政府停摆期间暂停了家庭调查， BLS不会公布10月失业率等数据。美国劳工统计局表示，无法量化政府关门对10-11月就业人数调查的 影响。这也意味着，最新公布的数据在完整性和可比性上仍存在一定不确定性。 另外，最新公布的数据显示，欧元区12月商业活动增长放缓，综合PMI从11月的52.8降至51.9，创三个 月新低。数据显示，欧元区制造业普遍疲软，而服务业增长势头也在减弱。通胀压力上升，投入成本涨 幅达到九个月高点。分析指出，这些数据将有助于为欧洲央行提供信息，该央行将于周四做出今年最后 一次的利率决策。投资者和分析师认为，在可预见的未来，当前 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 17 日 证券研究报告 如何理解一并公布的 10 月和 11 月非农数据 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 美国劳工部 12 月 16 日公布非农就业数据1。由于此前的政府停摆，本次非农数据属于 10 月和 11 月一并发布。 但住户调查（Household Survey）数据（包括失业率等）将缺失 10 月数据，且不会再补采。 美国劳工部在 12 月 16 日集中公布 10 月与 11 月的就业数据，其中包括 11 月的住户调查（Household Survey） 结果（如失业率、劳动参与率等），但由于此前政府停摆，10 ...

当地时间周二（12月16日），美国劳工统计局发布报告称，11月的美国非农就业人数略高于预期。美联储将在明年1月举行2026年首次议息会 议。市场普遍预期，美联储继续降息的概率不大。 非农数据公布后，国际油价快速跳水，WTI原油、布油跌破60美元后加速下挫。现货黄金上扬逾20美元，最高至4330美元/盎司。 美联储继续降息概率低 就业和通胀数据是美联储货币政策制定的关键指标。在最近一次会议上，美联储将基准利率下调了25个基点，但暗示进一步降息的门槛更高。 自9月以来，美联储已连续三次降息，将基准基金利率降至3.5%—3.75%的目标区间。 11月就业数据发布后，芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具数据显示，明年1月降息概率仅为24.4%，和数据发布前变化不大。而Polymarket网站 最新预测显示，美联储明年1月维持利率不变的概率78%，降息25个基点的概率21%，降息50个基点的概率1.7%。 就业数据好于预期 美国劳工统计局周二公布11月就业报告和10月的部分报告。因为联邦政府停摆，美国政府关闭了43天，无法收集足够的数据，此次劳工统计局 并没有发布10月的失业率和其他10月数据。 报告显示，11月非农就业岗位 ...

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Hassett, a candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair position, emphasizes the importance of the Fed's independence and consensus-building in monetary policy decisions [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Qualifications and Support - Hassett supports the notion that his close relationship with President Trump should not disqualify him from the Fed Chair position, arguing that collaboration with the president does not undermine his qualifications [2]. - There is growing internal resistance within Trump's advisory team regarding Hassett's candidacy, with concerns that he may prioritize presidential directives over the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment [1][2]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Candidate Probabilities - As doubts about Hassett's candidacy increase, Kevin Warsh's probability of being nominated for the Fed Chair has risen to approximately 46%, while Hassett's probability has decreased to around 39% [2]. - Just a week prior, Hassett's nomination probability was as high as 77%, with Warsh at only 10% [2]. Group 3: Economic Context and Employment Data - Hassett's comments come amid the release of non-farm employment data for November and part of October, which he describes as showing a robust upward trend in private sector employment [4]. - He expresses a positive outlook on employment growth through 2026, despite acknowledging the impact of government shutdowns on employment data [4].

周二欧洲交易时段，欧元/美元整体维持在1.1750附近窄幅震荡，市场交投情绪相对谨慎。 当前汇价波动率偏低，主要原因在于投资者正在等待一系列关键经济数据的指引，尤其是德国、欧元区以及美国即将公布的重要指标。 其中，德国和欧元区的初步采购经理人指数（PMI）成为短线关注重点。 从技术面来看，欧元/美元的短期结构仍偏向积极。20期简单移动平均线已向上穿越50期和200期均线，且三条均线同步上行，显示价格动能依旧占优。汇价 稳定运行在这些均线之上，短期趋势维持偏强格局。 此次将同时发布10月和11月的就业报告，市场普遍预计11月非农就业人数增加约4万人，失业率维持在4.4%。 若数据显著强于预期，例如就业增幅达到10万人或以上，可能削弱市场对美联储提前降息的押注，从而推动美元在短时间内走强，欧元/美元或面临回落压 力。反之，若数据表现疲弱，则可能强化市场对明年初降息的预期，为欧元/美元提供进一步上行空间。 根据CME FedWatch工具，目前市场对美联储在1月份降息25个基点的预期概率约为25%。在关键数据落地前，欧元/美元或仍将维持区间整理，等待新的方 向信号。 动量指标方面，相对强弱指数（RSI）读数约为62 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release non-farm employment data for October and November, with the report expected to influence interest rate trends and potentially cause fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate [1] - The report will include data from two months, with October's figures primarily based on business surveys, and November's expected to show an increase of approximately 40,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.4%, with a slight increase to 4.5% expected for November [2] Employment Data Expectations - Analysts predict a rebound in employment numbers for November, while October's data may show a decline, particularly influenced by government sector employment [2] - Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month in November, following a year-over-year increase of 3.8% in September [2] Market Reactions - Recent economic indicators show an increase in initial jobless claims and limited improvement in the services sector, with unexpected declines in private sector employment [2] - The upcoming non-farm data is crucial for market expectations regarding future interest rate adjustments, with potential implications for the dollar's strength against the euro [2][4] Technical Analysis - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently consolidating near recent highs, with technical indicators suggesting potential upward movement [5] - If the exchange rate continues to rise, it may test levels of 1.1800 and 1.1850, with further resistance around 1.1919 [5] - In case of a pullback, initial support may be found around 1.1644, with further attention on the 1.1610 area [5]

就业数据对市场判断通胀黏性和货币政策走向具有直接影响。非农就业数据通常通过"美元指数—美债 收益率—实际利率"这一传导链条来影响黄金价格。若就业数据及工资增速显著超出预期，可能会增强 市场的高利率预期，进而推升美元指数和实际利率，对黄金价格构成阶段性压制。相反，如果就业数据 和工资增速不佳，那么"就业降温"的叙事就可能促使市场重新评估降息预期，从而利好黄金。当然，也 需要警惕数据集中发布可能引发的市场短线波动放大。 对于黄金后市，知名人士认为在降息周期已得到确认且市场流动性宽松的背景下，黄金的中期"定价 锚"更倾向于实际利率下行和避险需求上升。从边际变化来看，美联储降息节奏与市场定价之间仍存在 分歧。如果后续数据显示出"降息放缓甚至暂停"的迹象，那么金价可能会出现深度回调。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，黄金价格呈现出强劲的上涨态势，屡创历史新高。然而，进入10月 下旬后，金价出现了一定程度的回调，但经过短暂调整，整体仍维持震荡上行的趋势。 今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，黄金价格呈现出强劲的上涨态势，屡创历史新高。然而，进入10月下旬 后，金价出现了一定程度的回调，但经过短 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have dramatically reversed within a day, influenced by key economic data and internal policy disagreements [1][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December dropped to 35.4% but surged to approximately 70% after New York Fed President John Williams reassured the market about potential rate cuts [1][3] - The mixed signals from the labor market, including a strong increase in non-farm payrolls and a rising unemployment rate, have intensified internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the necessity of rate cuts [2][5] Group 2 - The U.S. Labor Department reported a significant increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, exceeding expectations of 50,000, marking the strongest monthly gain since April [2] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest in four years, while previous months' job growth figures were revised downwards, indicating potential economic concerns [2][5] - The delay in the release of the October non-farm payroll report due to government shutdown has created uncertainty in market assessments, as the report will be published after the Fed's December meeting [4][5]

Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls for September increased by +119K, significantly better than the revised figure of -4K for August, marking a positive trend in job growth [2][3] - The unemployment rate rose by 10 basis points to 4.4%, attributed to an increase in the Labor Force Participation Rate to 62.4% [4] - The private sector contributed +97K jobs, with notable gains in Healthcare (+57K) and Leisure & Hospitality (+47K), while Manufacturing saw a decline of -6K [5] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 220K, which is the lowest level since mid-July and below consensus estimates by 7K, indicating a stable job market [7] - Continuing Claims rose to 1.974 million, approaching the psychologically significant 2 million mark, warranting close observation in the future [9] Corporate Earnings - Walmart reported Q3 earnings of 62 cents, exceeding expectations by a penny, with revenues of $179.5 billion, up 1.33% from estimates [10] - Comparable store sales increased by +4.5%, and Walmart raised its guidance for Q4, reflecting a recovery from previous earnings misses [10][11] Market Sentiment - The positive employment data and corporate earnings reports have contributed to a favorable market sentiment, with major indexes showing significant gains [1][11]