Core Insights - The CEO of DHF Capital SA, Bas Kooijman, indicated that strong unexpected non-farm payroll data could lead to fluctuations in gold prices [1] - Currently, gold prices are nearing historical highs, prompting investors to remain cautious ahead of the employment report, which is expected to influence market sentiment and monetary policy expectations [1] - Recent U.S. economic data, including weak private sector employment figures, has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a dovish stance, with traders almost certain that a 25 basis point rate cut will occur in the September meeting [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the gold market, analyzing the reasons for gold price fluctuations and providing future price outlooks [1][3][7] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Gold prices are in a high - level oscillation, with multiple factors contributing to an upward trend. The core market contradictions are the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks [1][7] Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Multiple Fed officials believe labor - market concerns are the main reason for future rate cuts. Trump is still committed to promoting peace between Russia and Ukraine. Trump's government asked the Supreme Court to rule on tariff - collection rights [2] Price Logic - US economic data in August was mixed. Weak employment data strengthened the rate - cut expectation in September, while strong service - sector data added uncertainty. The market is waiting for non - farm payroll data, and the "August effect" may make the 9 - month rate - cut expectation fluctuate [3] Political and Policy Uncertainty - Concerns about the Fed's independence and potential political influence on the easing path, along with fiscal risks from tariff issues, provide support for gold [4] Future Outlook - Technically, gold's next target is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the $49 - $50 historical high. The weekly London gold spot is expected to be in the range of [3350, 3600], and the weekly London silver spot in the range of [38, 42] [7] Commodity Index - On September 4, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all declined. The precious - metals index fell 0.31% on the day, rose 3.73% in the past 5 days, 4.18% in the past month, and 28.75% year - to - date [45][47]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 4, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market had a collective pullback. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.83% to 12118.70, and the ChiNext Index declined 4.25% to 2776.25. The trading volume reached 2544.3 billion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4365.21, down 94.62 [1][2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke weighted index closed at 1585.0, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1093.5 yuan, down 21.7 [3][4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Affected by the expected sufficient supply in major producing countries, the US sugar oscillated lower on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices, and continued to fall at night [5]. - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber had a narrow - range fluctuation. Natural rubber was strong while 20 - rubber was weak. Supported by the strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher at night. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 999,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures closed higher on September 4. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated, with the M2601 contract closing at 3048 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.59% [6]. - **Live Hogs**: The live hog futures price oscillated weakly, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. In September, the market supply is still under pressure, but the consumption is seasonally picking up [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures oscillated slightly. The main contract P2601 closed at 9390, up 0.23%. Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons [8]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the cost supports the price. The domestic demand is expected to recover, but the export demand may decline [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose 1.67% to 791.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the demand is slightly weak, but the terminal demand in the peak season provides support [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2510 contract fell 2.14% to 3468 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the short - term price will oscillate [10]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13960 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 167 lots [10]. - **Log**: The 2511 log contract opened at 797, closed at 797, with an increase of 317 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [10][12]. - **Steel**: The rb2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is unstable, and the short - term price will fluctuate slightly [12]. - **Alumina**: The ao2601 contract closed at 2980 yuan/ton. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the cost support is weakening [13]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The al2510 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. The high - level oscillation of the main contract may continue, and the market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression" [13]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market had a significant pullback on September 4, with increased trading volume [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are under pressure. The coking coal inventory is increasing, and the coke price increase is not implemented while some areas propose price cuts [5]. - The sugar market is affected by the expected sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5]. - The rubber market is supported by the supply - side situation in Southeast Asia [6]. - The soybean meal price oscillates due to sufficient domestic supply and potential supply from South America [6][7]. - The live hog market has supply pressure in the short term, but the consumption is seasonally improving [7]. - The palm oil market shows a slight upward trend, and the production in Malaysia is estimated to increase [8]. - The Shanghai copper price is affected by supply, cost, demand, and external factors such as US economic data [9]. - The iron ore price oscillates due to the change in supply - demand relationship and the support from the peak - season demand [9]. - The asphalt price oscillates with the decline of capacity utilization rate and general terminal demand [10]. - The log market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. - The steel price has limited fluctuations, and the demand recovery will determine the future trend [12]. - The alumina price is under pressure due to increased supply and weakened cost support [13]. - The Shanghai aluminum price is in a balanced state between macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression [13]. 3. Factors Affecting Different Commodities Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: The eighth - round price increase is not implemented, and some areas propose the first - round price cut. The iron water production is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The power consumption in China accounts for 30% of the terminal energy consumption, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. The mine inventory is increasing, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected sufficient supply in major producing countries and the decline of US sugar and spot prices affect the price of Zhengzhou sugar [5]. Rubber - The strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia support the price of Shanghai rubber [6]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean harvest is approaching, and Brazil's exports are expected to increase. In the domestic market, the sufficient supply of imported soybeans, the potential supply from South America, and the increase of soybean meal inventory affect the price [6][7]. Live Hogs - The supply is under pressure in September, but the consumption is seasonally picking up due to the start of the school term [7]. Palm Oil - The production increase in Malaysia affects the price of palm oil [8]. Shanghai Copper - **Supply**: The domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and the refined copper production is expected to decline slightly. - **Cost**: The TC fee is negative, and the raw material price increase supports the copper price. - **Demand**: The export demand may decline due to US tariffs, but the domestic demand is expected to recover. - **External Factor**: The US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the copper price [9]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded to the annual high, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron water production has decreased slightly, but the peak - season demand provides support [9]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the terminal demand is general [10]. Log - The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. Steel - The demand for steel is unstable during the off - peak to peak - season transition. The cost changes little, and the production may remain high [12]. Alumina - The supply is increasing due to the resumption of production lines and the stable output of new capacity. The cost support is weakening due to the decline of bauxite price [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression", and the US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the market sentiment [13].

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of inflation in the U.S. is impacting consumer confidence, leading to a potential 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a focus on non-farm employment and inflation data [1] Group 1 - U.S. inflation is rising, which is causing a decline in consumer confidence [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [1] - The U.S. stock market is entering a performance gap in September, which may increase market volatility [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will significantly influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly regarding potential rate cuts in September [1][3]. - Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that if the August non-farm payroll number is below 100,000, a rate cut in September is almost certain [4]. - The market's expectation for a September rate cut has decreased from 65% to 42% following the release of various economic indicators that fell within reasonable expectations [3]. Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts that the August non-farm payroll increase may only be 80,000, which would lower the three-month average to 35,000, significantly below the previous market estimate of 150,000 [5]. - Concerns about the reliability of employment data are raised, particularly due to the "birth-death model" used in non-farm statistics, which has an estimation bias of 12,000 [5]. - Recent economic indicators show a 0.4% increase in consumer spending and a narrowing decline in business investment to 0.2%, but the trend remains unstable [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has paved the way for a rate cut in September, but the key factor remains the upcoming non-farm employment data, which could provide decisive guidance on the pace and magnitude of the rate cut [1][10]. Employment Data Concerns - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the outlook for employment growth is bleak, similar to the slowdown in economic activity this year, indicating that the slowdown in employment growth is not solely due to trade and immigration policy changes [2]. - There are significant uncertainties regarding balanced employment growth, with Goldman Sachs estimating a balanced level of around 80,000 jobs, while the three-month average growth is concerningly low at 35,000 jobs [3]. Rate Cut Pathway - The potential for a more significant slowdown in employment data is currently high, which could influence the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts [4]. - Goldman Sachs believes that the market has moved past the most severe uncertainties regarding tariffs, and if the next two data releases show improvement, the current weakness may be a temporary fluctuation [5]. Data Revision Worries - The market's heightened focus on the August non-farm data is concerning, especially given the scale of previous data revisions [6]. - Several factors contribute to the negative bias in future employment growth revisions, including overly optimistic birth-death models and historical trends of negative revisions during economic slowdowns [7]. Future Rate Cut Expectations - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the rate cut cycle could conclude by the first half of 2026, regardless of whether the economy is slowing or normalizing [8][9]. - The current yield curve indicates a flat state, providing a framework for future policy considerations [9]. Conclusion - Powell's statements have opened the door for a September rate cut, but the actual pace and trajectory of cuts will depend on the August employment data, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a cautious stance on the labor market due to multiple concerns [10][11].

Group 1 - The core view is that the robustness of the U.S. labor market is now in question following the downward revision of employment data for May and June by a total of 258,000 jobs, marking the largest consecutive downward revision outside of the pandemic period [1] - The newly reported job additions for May and June were both below 20,000, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to reassess its policy direction [1] - The initial baseline forecast suggested that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2025, but any further signs of weakness in the labor market or economy could lead to an earlier interest rate cut cycle [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline in non-farm employment growth in the U.S., with only 73,000 jobs added in May, and an average of 35,000 jobs over the past three months, contrasting sharply with the Biden administration's average of 168,000 jobs per month during 2024 [1][2][5] - The recent employment data has raised concerns among economists and investors about the potential manipulation of data by the Trump administration, particularly following the dismissal of the BLS director [1][10][11] - The decline in immigration due to Trump's policies is expected to exert downward pressure on labor market growth, with projections suggesting that job growth could slow to as low as 10,000 to 40,000 jobs per month later this year [5][6][8] Group 2 - The Biden administration's immigration policies have contributed to a record job growth of 16.1 million jobs during his term, averaging 336,000 jobs added per month, which is now reversing due to the anticipated decline in immigration [7][9] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for non-farm employment growth in 2025 to just 30,000 or fewer jobs per month, attributing this primarily to the decrease in immigration [8] - The potential changes in the BLS's statistical methods under Trump's administration could undermine the credibility of U.S. labor market data, which has been built over decades [10][11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Barkin highlighted that profit pressures are making it difficult for the manufacturing sector [1] - A 4.2% unemployment rate is not considered bad [1] - The original non-farm employment data was more surprising compared to the revised figures [1] Group 2 - The exit of the baby boomer generation from the workforce is beginning to reveal a demographic cliff [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting on July 30, 2025, despite increasing pressure for a rate cut [2][3] - The shift towards a dovish stance among Federal Reserve officials has become more pronounced, with predictions of potential rate cuts in September [2][3][4] - The disappointing non-farm payroll data for July, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added compared to the expected 115,000, has raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy [3][4] Group 2 - President Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal of the Labor Department's statistics chief, which has contributed to market uncertainty regarding economic prospects [4][5] - The appointment of Stephen Milan, a close Trump ally, to the Federal Reserve Board is expected to influence the Fed's decision-making process, potentially increasing the likelihood of rate cuts [6][7] - The anticipated rate cuts may benefit traditional industries with high debt levels, such as real estate, but the overall impact remains uncertain due to conflicting economic policies [8][9]