Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant decline in non-farm employment growth in the U.S., with only 73,000 jobs added in May, and an average of 35,000 jobs over the past three months, contrasting sharply with the Biden administration's average of 168,000 jobs per month during 2024 [1][2][5] - The recent employment data has raised concerns among economists and investors about the potential manipulation of data by the Trump administration, particularly following the dismissal of the BLS director [1][10][11] - The decline in immigration due to Trump's policies is expected to exert downward pressure on labor market growth, with projections suggesting that job growth could slow to as low as 10,000 to 40,000 jobs per month later this year [5][6][8] Group 2 - The Biden administration's immigration policies have contributed to a record job growth of 16.1 million jobs during his term, averaging 336,000 jobs added per month, which is now reversing due to the anticipated decline in immigration [7][9] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecast for non-farm employment growth in 2025 to just 30,000 or fewer jobs per month, attributing this primarily to the decrease in immigration [8] - The potential changes in the BLS's statistical methods under Trump's administration could undermine the credibility of U.S. labor market data, which has been built over decades [10][11]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's Barkin highlighted that profit pressures are making it difficult for the manufacturing sector [1] - A 4.2% unemployment rate is not considered bad [1] - The original non-farm employment data was more surprising compared to the revised figures [1] Group 2 - The exit of the baby boomer generation from the workforce is beginning to reveal a demographic cliff [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the meeting on July 30, 2025, despite increasing pressure for a rate cut [2][3] - The shift towards a dovish stance among Federal Reserve officials has become more pronounced, with predictions of potential rate cuts in September [2][3][4] - The disappointing non-farm payroll data for July, which showed only 73,000 new jobs added compared to the expected 115,000, has raised concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy [3][4] Group 2 - President Trump has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve, including the dismissal of the Labor Department's statistics chief, which has contributed to market uncertainty regarding economic prospects [4][5] - The appointment of Stephen Milan, a close Trump ally, to the Federal Reserve Board is expected to influence the Fed's decision-making process, potentially increasing the likelihood of rate cuts [6][7] - The anticipated rate cuts may benefit traditional industries with high debt levels, such as real estate, but the overall impact remains uncertain due to conflicting economic policies [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The July non-farm payroll data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a significant miss with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the expected 110,000, and the May and June data were revised down by a total of 258,000, raising concerns about data reliability and potential political influence on economic statistics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Data Revision - The substantial downward revision of May and June data was attributed to additional survey results collected after the initial data release and recalibration of seasonal adjustment factors [2][3]. - Non-farm employment data is based on surveys from approximately 121,000 businesses and government agencies, with initial values published based on about 60% of the data received [2]. - Seasonal adjustment models may lag behind structural economic changes, leading to significant deviations in initial values, especially during periods of economic uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Policy - The weak employment data has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may follow a similar pattern as last year, where it maintained rates in July but cut rates significantly in September [4]. - The Federal Reserve has maintained its target federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% for five consecutive meetings, citing economic uncertainty and the need for more data [4][5]. - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts, with two members voting against the consensus for the first time since 1993 [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the release of the non-farm data, there was a panic in the markets, with U.S. Treasury yields dropping, and both the dollar and U.S. stocks declining, while gold prices rose [7]. - Market expectations indicate a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut if labor market weakness persists [6][7]. - The anticipated rate cut could lead to improved global liquidity, benefiting overseas markets such as Hong Kong and A-shares, while potentially putting pressure on U.S. dollar assets [7].

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports a significant downward revision of 258,000 jobs, the largest since 1979, which is 4-5 times the normal adjustment range [1][2][5] - The analysis indicates that current employment data holds more predictive power regarding economic trends than historical revisions, maintaining the expectation of no interest rate cuts until 2025 [1][9] Employment Data Revision - The July employment report revealed unexpected large downward revisions for the previous two months: June's non-farm employment was revised from 147,000 to only 14,000, a reduction of 133,000; May's data was adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000, a drop of 125,000, totaling a net revision of 258,000 [2][3] - Historically, from March 1979 to July 2025, the average net revision has been an upward adjustment of 1,200 jobs, making this downward revision the largest in 46 years when excluding the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic [3] Statistical Analysis - The average absolute value of historical revisions is 56,000 jobs, with a standard deviation of 61,000; thus, the 258,000 job revision is statistically significant and considered an outlier [5] - Using a Probit regression model, Morgan Stanley found that while the large downward revision correlates with an increased recession probability, the effect is limited, raising the likelihood of recession by only 9 percentage points [9] Current Employment Signals - The July report showed an addition of 73,000 jobs, which is deemed more critical than the previous downward revisions; the current employment data is viewed as a stronger indicator of economic health [9] - Other indicators from the July report, such as moderate wage growth, slight increases in hours worked, and low unemployment rates, suggest that these current signals are more relevant than the historical downward adjustments [9] - Despite acknowledging that the downward revisions indicate a faster-than-expected slowdown in labor demand, Morgan Stanley maintains its forecast of no interest rate cuts through 2025, suggesting that recession risks remain elevated but not at a level that would alter the overall economic outlook [9]

特朗普表示，非农就业数据是由前美国总统拜登任命的官员编制的，非农就业数据被操纵，目的是让他看起来很糟糕，劳工统计局对近期数据的修订是“彻头彻尾的骗局”。特朗普称，已指示团队立即解雇这位拜登的政治任命官员。这一官员将由一位更有能力、更有资历的人取代。这类重要的数据必须公平、准确，不能被用于政治操纵。特朗普说，对于下一任劳工统计局（BLS）局长，有许多的人选，脑子里有三个人选，要求下一任BLS局长是一个“诚实的人”。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):美国劳工统计局：5月份非农新增就业人数从14.4万人修正至1.9万人；6月份非农新增就业人数从14.7万人修正至1.4万人。修正后，5月和6月新增就业人数合计较修正前低25.8万人。 ...

美国总统特朗普：今天的非农就业数据被操纵，目的是让我看起来很糟糕。劳工统计局对近期数据的修 订是"彻头彻尾的骗局"。美联储主席鲍威尔也没有比"被操纵的"就业数据好到哪里去。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights President Trump's assertion that today's non-farm payroll data has been manipulated to portray him negatively [1] Group 1 - President Trump claims that the non-farm employment data is being manipulated [1] - The manipulation of data is suggested to be aimed at making Trump appear unfavorable [1]

（注：根据美国劳工统计局周五发布的报告，7月非农就业人数增加7.3万人，此前两个月的数据被大幅 下修了近26万人。过去三个月，非农就业人数平均仅增长了3.5万人，为新冠疫情以来最糟。） 美国总统特朗普表示，就业数据由前总统拜登任命的官员编制的。指示团队解雇劳工统计局局长。需要 准确的就业数据。美联储主席鲍威尔也应该"退休"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve official Bostic emphasized the significance of non-farm payroll data and indicated that there is no readiness to raise expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025 [1] Group 1 - Bostic highlighted the importance of non-farm employment data in assessing economic conditions [1] - The current stance does not support an increase in expectations for rate cuts before 2025 [1]