【导读】周应波：当下是牛市"中场休息"，看好五大方向 中国基金报记者 孙越 站在运舟资本新办公室的窗前，同一楼层，风景已大不相同。 更开阔的空间，流动的江景，恰如周应波投资生涯步入的新阶段。今年是他投资生涯的第十年：七年公募，三年私募。颇具深意 的是，这栋楼也正是他十年前作为公募"顶流"基金经理时，首发代表作"中欧时代先锋"的诞生地。 回首"奔私"这三年，周应波坦言，学习密度"超过在公募七年"。今年以来，运舟资本旗下基金产品净值稳步回升，市场的潮水再 次将他托起——这位持续迭代的投资人，又在资本市场看见了怎样的"风景"？ 采访准时开始，周应波拿出一份写得密密麻麻的提纲草稿。这位理工科出身的投资人，以一种近乎质朴的严谨，开启了这场长达 两个多小时的深度对话。 他清晰地勾勒出自己投资理念的迭代路径：在坚守成长主线的同时，系统地融入了"价值投资"的核心理念与分析方法。他强 调，"价值投资"理念同样适用于科技股与成长股。同时，通过建立科学的框架，明确能力的边界，"主动放弃"了很多不确定性机 会。 对于当前市场，周应波判断，A股正处于牛市的"中场休息"阶段。尽管估值优势相较3000点以下时有所减弱，但在持续的产业进 步 ...

National Developments - All offshore wind turbines for China's farthest offshore wind power project have been installed [1] - State Power Investment Corporation has completed the major asset restructuring and share issuance for Yuanda Environmental Protection [1] Local Developments - Shenzhen Futian supports the construction of solar energy storage and charging projects with subsidies up to 5 million [1] - Shandong Dongying has received subsidies for a 1.4GW offshore wind power project [1] International Developments - TotalEnergies will acquire part of EPH's power generation facilities for €5.1 billion [1] - Saudi Arabia's 2GW photovoltaic project has completed the installation of all solar modules [1] Economic Insights - The current decline in the AI sector is evident, with major companies like Meta and Oracle showing signs of weakness, indicating a rejection of the "wheel of fortune" model driven by debt expansion [2] - The tightening of the funding chain due to high interest rates from the Federal Reserve will first impact the cash-burning data centers in the AI industry, leading to soaring CDS premiums and heightened concerns over debt default risks [2] - The total market capitalization of the US stock market is $68 trillion, with the AI sector accounting for nearly $30 trillion, making it vulnerable to systemic risks [2] - The modern economy acts as a financial accelerator, and a shift from positive to negative feedback can lead to rapid deterioration [2] - The "All in AI" strategy faces three critical conflicts: financial fragility of the "wheel of fortune" model, the contradiction between high computing power demand and aging energy infrastructure, and the dual pressure from income deflation due to smart replacements and soaring financial costs from computing iterations [2] Strategic Outlook - For Eastern countries, the best strategy is to observe the global landscape with caution, as the capital storm originating from the West is likely to spill over [3] - Any misstep in the West's approach to AI, viewed as a matter of national survival, could present strategic opportunities for the East and lay the foundation for a new round of national competition [3]

在全球云端AI服务器投资浪潮下，台积电作为主要代工厂商正迎来前所未有的增长机遇。 瑞银最新研报显示，每1GW服务器项目将为台积电带来10-20亿美元的收入机会，相当于其2025年预期销售额的1.0- 1.5%。随着OpenAI和多家超大规模云服务商宣布数十GW级别的服务器建设计划，台积电的收入增长潜力将远超市场 预期。 不同AI平台的产能需求差异显著 研报分析显示，台积电在英伟达新一代AI GPU平台中的实际总收入金额将逐步增长。每1GW服务器建设中，台积电 从Blackwell Ultra/Rubin平台获得的收入约为11亿美元，而到Rubin Ultra/Feynman平台时将增至14-19亿美元。 博 通ASIC方案效率优势明显，ASIC芯片凭借针对特定工作负载的更高效率，可能产生比GPU更多的芯片单元需求。博 通为谷歌设计的TPU v7p，每1GW需要约4.9千片/月的N3产能,远高于英伟达的2-4千片/月。 从收入占机架价值的比例看，ASIC方案为台积电带来的实际总收入金额更高，达到10-11%，而GPU方案为4-6%。具 体到谷歌TPU v7p项目，台积电每1GW的收入机会可达18.95亿美元。 ...

Group 1: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection Industry - The energy transition is ongoing, with clean energy and environmental protection exhibiting both growth and utility attributes [7][8] - The unified electricity market is accelerating, promoting high-quality development of renewable energy [7] - The coal power sector is transitioning to a regulatory power source, with coal prices expected to support long-term contract prices in 2026 [8] - Green electricity pricing uncertainties are diminishing, indicating a potential bottoming out for the green electricity sector [8] - Hydropower is experiencing improved cash flow and performance, supported by low costs and a balanced supply-demand trend [9] - Nuclear power is facing market price pressures but is expected to rebound, with new nuclear projects gaining momentum [10] - The natural gas market remains relatively loose, with domestic supply increasing and global prices potentially declining [10] - Green methanol is emerging as a significant growth area due to policies promoting renewable energy consumption [11] - The environmental protection sector is entering a mature phase, with improved cash flow and investment opportunities in public utility-like projects [11][12] Group 2: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The livestock sector is expected to experience a significant turnaround, with beef and milk prices projected to rise [13][16] - The domestic and international markets are likely to see synchronized price increases for beef and milk due to supply adjustments [13] - The pig and poultry farming sectors are shifting focus from cyclical trends to cash flow generation, with leading companies expected to benefit [14] - The pet industry is identified as a high-quality growth sector, with domestic brands gaining traction [15][18] - Agricultural commodity prices are stabilizing, with corn and soybean markets showing signs of support [16][17] Group 3: Machinery Industry - The machinery industry is poised for growth driven by AI infrastructure and humanoid robots, with a focus on engineering machinery and market share-boosting leaders [19][20] - Emerging markets and export growth are key drivers, particularly in AI infrastructure and robotics [19] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with significant import substitution potential, such as scientific instruments and semiconductor components [20] - The nuclear power sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with a positive outlook on nuclear energy development [22] Group 4: Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector is recovering, with a notable increase in consumer demand and improvements in the supply chain [26][27] - The alcoholic beverage segment is in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for quality companies to gain market share [26] - Dairy and beverage sectors are expected to see stable demand recovery, with leading companies positioned for growth [26][27] - The snack food market is highlighted for its growth potential, particularly in niche segments like konjac snacks [26]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities highlights that the AI wave and energy transformation are creating opportunities for industrial upgrades, particularly supported by the midstream machinery sector [1] Group 1: Demand Side Opportunities - Emerging market growth is primarily driven by AI infrastructure, including liquid cooling, gas turbines, and refrigeration industries, as well as humanoid robots and other trends like unmanned automation and intelligent welding robots [1] - Export growth is focused on globally competitive sectors such as engineering machinery, oil and gas equipment, injection molding machines, and tire molds, with additional attention on commercial catering equipment and hand/electric tools [1] Group 2: Supply Side Opportunities - Significant import substitution potential exists in sectors like scientific instruments, X-ray detection equipment, and semiconductor components [2] - Stock updates are emphasized for industry leaders in injection molding machines, testing services, and laser control systems, particularly those benefiting from a unified market and anti-involution trends in photovoltaic and lithium battery equipment [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights six main lines of new productive forces, emphasizing the importance of innovation and advanced technologies in enhancing combat capabilities and operational efficiency [3][6][8] - It anticipates that 2026 will be a pivotal year for the mass production of humanoid robots and the practical implementation of Level 3 autonomous driving [3][43] - The commercial space sector is identified as a strategic emerging industry with significant growth potential, driven by technological advancements and policy support [24][32] Summary by Relevant Sections New Quality Combat Power - New quality combat power is characterized by innovation-driven advancements, moving away from traditional methods of enhancing combat capabilities [6][8] - Key features include the integration of emerging technologies such as AI, big data, and quantum information into military applications [7][8] Unmanned Equipment - Unmanned combat equipment is seen as a core component of new quality combat power, utilizing AI and advanced manufacturing technologies for various military tasks [15][19] - The report predicts that 2026 will be a critical year for the large-scale application of unmanned equipment, driven by new procurement paradigms and practical experiences from recent conflicts [19][20] Commercial Space - The commercial space industry is projected to experience rapid growth, with the global satellite industry revenue reaching approximately $285.3 billion in 2023, reflecting a significant increase [32][31] - The report emphasizes the role of policy support and technological breakthroughs in accelerating the development of the commercial space sector [32] Controlled Nuclear Fusion - Controlled nuclear fusion is highlighted as a key pathway for achieving clean and nearly limitless energy, with the potential to reshape global energy dynamics [35][38] - The report identifies 2026 as a crucial year for the development of controlled nuclear fusion, with multiple international projects reaching significant milestones [38] Intelligent Driving - The report forecasts that the market for Level 3 autonomous driving will exceed 50 billion yuan in 2025, with a long-term potential nearing 300 billion yuan [43] - It notes that 2026 is expected to be the year when Level 3 autonomous driving becomes commercially viable, supported by regulatory advancements [43][46]

Core Viewpoint - Weichai Power (000338) shares have seen a significant increase, driven by the rising demand for large-bore engines due to the expansion of AI infrastructure and data centers [1] Industry Summary - Major global cloud computing companies are intensifying investments in AI infrastructure, leading to a substantial increase in the number of operational, under-construction, and planned intelligent computing centers [1] - According to CICC, the market size for large-bore engines used in data centers in China is expected to approach 10 billion yuan by 2025, while the global market for this segment is projected to reach 41.1 billion yuan by 2026 [1] - The AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) has higher power supply requirements, resulting in an increase in both the power and price of individual engines, indicating a simultaneous rise in volume and price [1] Company Summary - Changjiang Securities has a positive outlook on Weichai Power's large-bore engine and data center prospects, reporting that the company shipped approximately 5,000 large-bore engines in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 41%, with 600 units specifically for AIDC, marking a year-on-year increase of 491% [1] - According to Jefferies, the average selling price of Weichai Power's large-bore engines exceeded 500,000 yuan in the first three quarters, up from approximately 400,000 yuan in 2024, primarily driven by data center products [1]

长江证券指出，潍柴动力大缸径&数据中心前景乐观，公司缸径上半年出货约5000台，同比+41%，其 中AIDC大缸径出货600台，同比+491%。富瑞表示，潍柴动力首三季大缸径引擎的平均售价突破50万元 人民币，较2024年的约40万元人民币有所上升，主要受数据中心产品推动。 智通财经APP获悉，潍柴动力(02338)午前涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.75%，报19.63港元，成交额2.17亿港 元。 消息面上，全球头部云计算厂商持续加码AI基建，智算中心投运、在建及规划项目数量大幅增加，带 动大缸径发动机需求激增。据中金测算，2025年中国数据中心用该类发动机市场规模接近百亿元，2026 年全球该细分市场规模将达411亿元；且AIDC对供电功率要求更高，使得发动机单台功率和价格同步增 长，迎来量价齐升态势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between OpenAI and Enron, questioning whether OpenAI's current trajectory could lead to a similar downfall due to financial and operational challenges in the AI industry [1][2][41]. Group 1: Financial and Operational Challenges - OpenAI is projected to require $650 billion in new revenue annually to justify its investments, which is significantly higher than its current revenue of approximately $20 billion [11][37]. - The AI industry is expected to invest $5 trillion by 2030, but this investment is constrained by physical limitations such as the availability of critical components like transformers and power supply [25][36]. - Major tech companies are increasingly relying on debt to finance their AI infrastructure investments, raising concerns about sustainability and financial health [25][28]. Group 2: Infrastructure Limitations - The construction of data centers is facing significant delays due to the need for physical infrastructure, including power grid connections and fiber optic installations [20][21]. - There is a shortage of essential components, such as transformers, which are crucial for connecting data centers to the power grid, leading to potential project delays [28][33]. - The CEO of GE Vernova indicated that their production capacity for transformers is fully booked until 2028, highlighting the supply chain constraints in the industry [28]. Group 3: Market Demand and Revenue Generation - Analysts predict that AI products must generate substantial revenue to meet the high expectations set by investors, with a need for continuous growth in consumer and enterprise spending on AI services [39][40]. - The article suggests that while there are various monetization avenues for AI, the fundamental challenge remains in aligning production capabilities with market demand [40][41]. - The potential for AI services to evolve into more sophisticated offerings could drive revenue growth, but this is contingent on overcoming existing operational hurdles [36][41].

宏观方面，美股科技公司的资本支出跟1999年互联网泡沫极其相似。标普500指数涨幅七成以上被少数AI股贡献。 过去一周，关于AI泡沫的声音，又被推上了一个小高潮。 另一边，"大空头"迈克·巴里在最新13F里亮出自己的新下注：买了5万张Palantir的看跌期权，行权价50美金，2027年1月17日到期，期权成本1.84美金，总共 掏了大概920万美金，对应名义敞口9亿多美金。 | Stock | History | Sector | Shares Held or | Market Value | % of Portfallo | PREAJONE 16 call | Raick | Change In | % Change | Ownership | Qtr 1st Owned | Est. Ava | Oft End | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Principal | → | | Portfalio | | Shares | | | | Pric ...