Group 1 - Recent trends in US Treasury yields show a decline in short-term rates and a slight increase in long-term rates, indicating a dual market dynamic of outlook and supply-demand mismatch [1] - As of June 20, the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 2 basis points from two weeks prior, while the 2-year yield also fell by 2 basis points and the 30-year yield rose by 1 basis point [1] - The US fiscal surplus turned negative in May, resulting in a deficit of $316 billion, with a 12-month cumulative deficit of $2 trillion, highlighting ongoing fiscal pressures [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% on June 19, with increasing internal divisions potentially leading to communication risks regarding future policy [1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance increased by $7.7 billion over two weeks, while the Fed's reverse repo tool expanded by $33.3 billion, tightening short-term dollar liquidity [1] - Market conditions are facing risks from rapid oil price increases and tightening liquidity [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report indicates a significant reduction in immigration since mid-2024, leading to a slowdown in labor supply growth, which helps maintain balance in the labor market as job growth cools down [1] - Despite the slowdown, the current U.S. job market is described as "robust," with moderate job growth and low unemployment rates, indicating a return to balance in the labor market compared to pre-pandemic levels [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains flexibility in its current monetary policy, keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5% while awaiting clearer economic signals before making further decisions [1] Group 2 - Divergent views among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate direction were expressed, with some favoring a rate cut in the fall while others suggest a more aggressive approach as early as July [2] - Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that there is no urgent need for a rate cut, citing the resilience of the job market and consumer spending, while also being cautious about inflation remaining above target [2] - The uncertainty surrounding new tariffs and their potential impact on consumer prices, business confidence, and supply chain stability was highlighted, indicating challenges for the Federal Reserve in assessing policy outcomes [3]

贵金属日报 | 2025-06-20 英国央行维持利率不变 特朗普继续向美联储施压 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日，英国央行将利率维持在4.25%不变，投票比例显示内部分歧加大。交易员预计该行今年还会再降息50个基 点。此外，在地缘方面，以色列国防部长称，消灭哈梅内伊是此次行动的目标之一。而白宫则表示，特朗普与伊 朗谈判"有很大"机会，其将在两周内决定是否攻击伊朗。此外，昨日特朗普再度抨击美联储主席鲍威尔，称其 是美国的耻辱，并表示美联储应该降息250个基点。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-06-19，沪金主力合约开于 786.50元/克，收于 781.24元/克，较前一交易日收盘 -0.53%。当日成交量为 190490手，持仓量为 161031手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于783.10 元/克，收于 784.06 元/克，较昨日午后收盘下 降0.11%。 2025-06-19，沪银主力合约开于 9012元/千克，收于 8819元/千克，较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 746980手，持仓量 387527手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8,811 元/千克，收于 8,814 元/千克，较昨日午后收盘 下降 ...

2025年06月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：联储继续按兵不动 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜：不确定增加，市场谨慎 | 5 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 7 | | 铅：区间运行 | 8 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 9 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 11 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：累库有所加速，偏弱震荡延续 | 13 | | 工业硅：上方空间有限 | 15 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪扰动 | 15 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 17 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 18 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 焦炭：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦煤：铁水增量，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 原木：基差修复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 对二甲苯：海内外供应偏紧，趋势走强，月差正套 | 27 | | ...

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普将在两周内决定是否打击伊朗，A 股出 现单边回调 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-20 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普将在两周内决定是否打击伊朗 特朗普两周之内做出是否打击伊朗的决定，这意味着事态没有 进一步升级，进入到焦灼状态，市场短期维持震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 2035 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 后续宽货币等利多难被证伪，因此多头情绪难以趋势性退潮， 债牛尚未结束，多头可继续持有。 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 合 A 股单边回调 晨 报 A 股单边下跌，既有政策不及预期的原因，又有自身结构脆弱估 值偏高的压力。总体而言，宣泄成为纾解高估的方式之一，为 下一轮上行提供便宜的筹码。 农产品（玉米淀粉） 淀粉糖产品原料消耗量增加 淀粉糖产品原料消耗量增加 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） Mysteel 五大品种库存周环比下降 15.67 万吨 本周五大品种库存去化有所加速，现货基本面依然相对坚挺。 螺纹表需环比回落不大，同比仍在-7%左右。由于淡季累库尚未 出现，钢价延续震荡小幅反弹，但走弱预期仍难证伪。 能源化工（PTA） 江浙终端开工率 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 李卓雅 【贵金属】黄金市场周四小幅回撤，沪金主力合约跌至 784 元/克一线，白银波动 加剧回落至 8814 一线。美联储维持鹰派表达，上调失业率预测同时降低经济预 期，鲍威尔多次强调对于通胀的担忧。 ...

英国至6月19日英国央行MPC投票赞成维持利率不变 6，预期7，前值2。 ...

金十数据6月19日讯，英国央行将政策利率维持在4.25%不变，符合市场预期，利率保持在逾两年高 位。 英国央行维持利率不变 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a rate change [1] - The financial market showed minimal reaction to the Fed's decision, with the S&P 500 index down 0.03% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.10% [1] - The ten-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.394%, and the dollar index increased by 0.06% to 98.46 points [1] Group 2 - The Fed's economic outlook reflects a collective understanding among its economists, with predictions for GDP growth in 2025 revised down to 1.4% from a previous estimate of 1.7% [2][3] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of this year, indicating a potential slowdown in the job market [3] - Inflation, measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, is anticipated to increase, with core PCE projected at 3.1% for 2025 [3] Group 3 - The complexity of inflation is heightened by domestic economic policies and international geopolitical conflicts, with tariffs expected to raise consumer prices [4] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle Eastern tensions, could significantly impact global inflation [4] - The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, with 10 out of 19 officials suggesting the possibility of two rate cuts this year, while others remain skeptical [4][5] Group 4 - High interest rates are suppressing economic activity, with mortgage rates at 6.89% and credit card rates exceeding 20% [5] - The potential for stagflation is a concern, as low retail growth could lead to a chain reaction affecting the job market [5] - The Fed is willing to sacrifice employment and economic growth to maintain a low inflation environment [5] Group 5 - The upcoming earnings reports in July will be crucial for assessing corporate performance amid uncertainty, particularly regarding the impact of tariff policies [6] - The U.S. Treasury issuance market is under scrutiny, reflecting foreign investors' willingness to purchase U.S. bonds [6] - The credibility of the U.S. dollar is questioned in the context of a move away from dollar dominance [6]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 781.24 | -4.18 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 8819 | -226 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 161031 | -1390 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 387527 | -58454 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 142510 | -3319 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 107337 | -10313 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 18168 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 1242994 | 13962 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 781.1 | -1.69 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 8854 | -104 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -0.14 | 2.49 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/千克) | 35 | 122 | | ...