本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.412≈国内金价。 行情如逆水行舟，不进则退。昨天我们强调黄金先看区间震荡，然后关注突破情况；实际走势而言，昨天亚欧盘黄金是空头偏强，一直被压制在4230之下； 欧洲盘尾盘4200下方止跌走了反弹。美盘时段受ADP数据爆冷的影响，快速拉高，仅仅刺破4230，走了十来个美元便迎来快速地下跌，一直到收盘都在低位 运行，日线以十字线收盘。 白银，中长线我们观点很明确，就是12月3日视频分析的观点。短期而言，每次新高或逼近新高，都会不同程度的下跌调整，说明短线不宜过分看涨，倾向 于调整，关注回撤54-55或上涨趋势支撑再涨！参考制定交易策略 个人观点，仅供参考！ 今天的话，关注空头能否破局，最近反复扫荡，4200成了马路。下方重点是10日线和本周低点4165区域，一旦下破空头将发力，下破前还要反复折腾，还要 扫荡。上方的话，关注一下今天早盘高点4215-7区域压力，重点是4230-40以及周内高点压制；如果弱势那么早盘高点难上，强势则昨天和周内高点测试再 下。 最近，黄金走势相对于白银明显弱；银子不断新高，金子离新高还一大截，说明当前上涨动力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that short-term factors such as U.S. economic data, changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and the Russia-Ukraine situation will significantly impact gold prices [1] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased, suggesting that gold prices may experience high volatility in the short term [1] - If the Federal Reserve continues to signal a dovish stance, U.S. inflation data declines, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine escalate, gold prices may find support [1] Group 2 - In the long term, central bank gold purchases, the weakening of the U.S. dollar's global currency status, and the ongoing trend of "de-globalization" in the world economy and politics are expected to enhance the attractiveness of gold [1] - The medium to long-term outlook suggests that the price of gold is likely to rise, and investors may consider participating in future pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - The article recommends focusing on direct investments in physical gold and tax-exempt gold fund ETFs (518800), as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 4 日星期四 | 联系方式：15000295386 | | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌16元至5692元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格下跌15至5755 元/吨，华南瓶片价格下跌 20 至 5830 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 29 手至 6.16 | | | | | 万手，空头持仓增加 473 手至 6.31 万手 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 33.22 万吨，环比+0.08 万吨。国内 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | | | | | 聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 72.7%，环比+0.1%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5295 元，环 | | | | | 比+23 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-154 元/吨，环比-25 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Fuel Oil: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] - Asphalt: ★★★ (more distinct long trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently) [2] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has a downward pressure on the central price due to the expanding supply - demand surplus in the fundamentals, despite a short - term rebound from geopolitical factors [3] - The core driver of the fuel oil market lies in the supply side, with different influencing factors for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, and the supply - demand structure needs further attention [4] - The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiation in prices, with weak demand and slow inventory reduction, expected to continue the weak trend [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - API data shows an increase in refined oil and crude oil inventories in the US [3] - The SPM - 3 of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium in Russia, under maintenance since mid - November, is expected to resume operation within the next seven days, faster than the original plan [3] - After the rebound pricing due to geopolitical tensions, there is a sign of giving back some geopolitical premiums, and the expanding supply - demand surplus determines the downward pressure on the oil price center [3] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The short - term support comes from the decline in Middle East shipments and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and previous coking profits and quota shortages boosted its feedstock demand [4] - The early issuance of domestic crude oil quotas may divert this demand [4] - Although the Russia - Ukraine negotiations send positive signals, the risk premium will not completely disappear before clear implementation, and sanctions will continue to affect the shipment of high - sulfur resources [4] - In the medium term, logistics difficulties have led to floating storage inventory accumulation, and the loose pattern remains unchanged [4] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Supply fluctuations mainly come from unplanned overseas refinery maintenance [4] - The return of the Bintulu refinery and the postponed restart of the Azur refinery have slightly relieved short - term supply pressure, but weakening refined oil cracking continues to put pressure on it [4] - Attention should be paid to the production increase pressure from continuous overseas refinery restarts and whether the year - end shipping peak season and winter power generation demand can improve the supply - demand structure [4] Asphalt - The spot price of the domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiation trend [5] - Demand in the Northeast and North China regions is gradually stagnant, with traders mainly stocking up in warehouses; the South China market has weak trading sentiment due to a low contract price from a Hainan refinery, and prices are weakly stable [5] - The weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, at a near - four - year low [5] - Social inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the year - on - year increase has gradually expanded after a turning point from a decrease to an increase in late October; refinery inventory has increased slightly month - on - month, and the de - stocking rhythm of overall commercial inventory has significantly slowed down [5] - The BU is expected to continue the weak trend [5]

周三临近欧洲开盘，黄金在短线反弹乏力后回调至日内整理区间下沿，但整体仍稳守 4200 美元之上。 随着风险偏好延续，本周的避险力量有所减弱，令金价上方空间暂时受限。不过，美元持续走软与地缘 局势的不确定性仍为金价提供底部支撑。在重点数据公布前，市场更倾向于保持克制。 隔夜美股期货延续稳步走高，投资者情绪整体偏暖，使黄金盘中反弹后快速遇阻，短线多头操作相对谨 慎。临近 ADP 就业报告与 ISM 服务业 PMI 公布，部分资金选择降低仓位，导致日内波动被压缩，黄 金维持弱势整理格局。 在关键数据出炉前，美元维持低位震荡，欧元与澳元早盘表现较为坚挺，而英镑则保持区间运行。美元 走弱令黄金始终处于 4200 上方的支撑带内，但最终的方向仍需等待周五公布的 PCE 物价指数提供更明 确的政策信号。 技术结构显示，隔夜金价在 4155—4150 区域获得稳固买盘支撑后反弹，目前 4200 仍是日内多空争夺的 关键。若能突破 4245—4250 的压制区，有望进一步打开上行空间，测试 4264—4265，并向 4300 心理 关口延伸。反之，一旦跌破 4200，预计会吸引逢低买盘回流，而 4150 依然是更深层的重要防守 ...

本文黄金、白银等产品行情分析，以国际报价为基准；今日换算系数，国际金价/4.400≈国内金价。 我们来看一下黄金白银，简单的说一下基本面。最近，黄金白银上涨主要是两大因素，第一是美联储降息预期，美联储降息预期最近从前段时间的30%以下 提升到了80%以上。按市场的说法是，美联储12月份降息，基本上是板上钉钉了。另一个因素就是地缘局势，美国和委内瑞拉很紧张，亚太地区的日本，最 近一直在惹事儿。俄乌冲突那一块，谈判谈得不是太顺利，俄乌谈判还在进行。 对于操作上，不同的产品，不同的操作方式，我一直认为每个产品有每个产品的一个特点。所以说，对于杠杆产品每天要注意一点，我都会给关键位置；结 合我们提示的主要方向，比如是冲高做空为主，还是回落做多为主，参考关键位置去操作。 对于不带杠杆的产品，我最近反复强调，虽然说在下破3886趋势支撑以前我看可能会做反弹，但是我不建议去介入，因为这些产品不适合折腾。当前，确实 反弹了，我们错过来这波的上升，但是我觉得咱们做交易，你不要只看着行情，怎么我没有抓住，或者怎么咱们没有介入，你一定要注意它背后的一个风 险，这一点是最重要的。 机会多的是，但是，你如果盲目的进场被套了，或者挂在了 ...

在国际金价高位震荡、贵金属市场热度不减的背景下，白银成为近期最耀眼的"明星"。 最新数据显示，COMEX白银期货、伦敦现货白银最高分别触及57.245美元/盎司、56.533美元/盎司，均刷新历史新高；国内沪银期货主力合约最高一度升 至13239元/千克，也刷新该合约上市以来新高。 业内人士表示，宏观货币政策预期、地缘局势以及基本面供需结构等，均为近期白银价格上涨提供支撑，看好其中长期价格走势表现，但也需警惕短期波 动风险。 市场做多情绪持续升温 近期，白银价格延续强劲上扬态势。Wind数据显示，当地时间11月28日，COMEX白银期货一举突破57美元/盎司关口，最高触及57.245美元/盎司，创下 历史新高，大涨超6%；伦敦现货白银价格同样表现强势，最高攀升至56.533美元/盎司，亦创下历史最高纪录，涨超5%。 | < W | COMEX白银 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SI.CMX | | | | | | 57.085 | | 昨结 | 53.825 | 开盘 | 23.855 | | +3.260 | +6.06% | 总手 ...

在国际金价高位震荡、贵金属市场热度不减的背景下，白银成为近期最耀眼的"明星"。 最新数据显示，COMEX白银期货、伦敦现货白银最高分别触及57.245美元/盎司、56.533美元/盎司，均刷新历史新高；国内沪银期货主力合约最高一度升 至13239元/千克，也刷新该合约上市以来新高。 业内人士表示，宏观货币政策预期、地缘局势以及基本面供需结构等，均为近期白银价格上涨提供支撑，看好其中长期价格走势表现，但也需警惕短期波 动风险。 市场做多情绪持续升温 近期，白银价格延续强劲上扬态势。Wind数据显示，当地时间11月28日，COMEX白银期货一举突破57美元/盎司关口，最高触及57.245美元/盎司，创下 历史新高，大涨超6%；伦敦现货白银价格同样表现强势，最高攀升至56.533美元/盎司，亦创下历史最高纪录，涨超5%。 | < W | COMEX白银 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SI.CMX | | | | | | 57.085 | | 昨结 | 53.825 | 开盘 | 23.855 | | +3.260 | +6.06% | 总手 ...

大宗与能源：宏观资金与地缘预期主导走势。原油连续两日反弹，市场聚焦周末的 OPEC+ 会议，从目 前信息看，产量政策大概率维持稳定。 在美联储降息预期明显升温、地缘局势不断扰动的背景下，本周全球市场呈现出强烈的分化特征：实体 经济端的裁员信号不断累积，而资产端在宽松预期与科技盈利支撑下依旧保持韧性。美元连续走弱，黄 金在多重利好推动下稳稳处于高位区间。 关于政策路径，市场本周对美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点的定价进一步抬升，概率一度上探至 82.8%– 87% 区间，属于本轮周期最明显的宽松押注之一。同时，哈西特（Kevin Hassett）成为下任美联储主席 的热门候选，其偏宽松的政策立场也强化了市场对未来降息节奏的预期，进而加大了美元的下行动能。 相较之下，欧洲央行继续按兵不动。最新会议纪要显示，大多数决策者认为没有必要在短期内急于继续 降息，暗示本轮周期或临近尾声，为欧元提供一定支撑。整体来看，本周外汇市场的基调仍是"美联储 偏鸽、欧洲维持观望、部分商品货币受本国因素提振"。 外汇市场：随着降息预期快速升温，美元吸引力明显下降。美元指数连续数日走低，预计将录得自 7 月 以来最弱的单周表现。欧元/美 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]