为助力应届毕业生点燃创业梦想、明晰职业发展方向，近日，由喀什地区人力资源和社会保障局组织 的"助力创业梦想·服务创业征程"创业指导公开课活动走进疏勒县，为县中等职业技术学校、技工学校 的应届毕业生送上一场创业知识"盛宴"。 活动现场，来自企业与职业指导领域的资深专家组成的讲师团凭借丰富的实践经验和深厚的专业理论知 识，围绕当前就业形势、职业规划、求职技巧、职场适应等核心内容进行讲解。老师巧妙结合案例，生 动诠释创业理念与技巧，以详实数据、鲜活事例，深入剖析当下就业形势与就业市场动态，细致解读喀 什地区产业发展趋势及人才需求方向，助力学生对就业环境形成更清晰全面的认知。 此次培训切实让学生对创业有了更深刻的认识与理解，让他们不仅收获了实用的创业知识技能，拓宽了 视野，还激发了创业热情与创新思维。疏勒县中等职业技术学校学生阿卜杜拉·土尔衮在课后激动地 说："这次创业指导公开课让我受益匪浅！老师们讲授的创业知识非常实用，更重要的是点燃了我内心 的创业梦想。作为技工学校的学生，除了要练就过硬的专业本领，更要培养敢想敢做的创业精神。今 后，我将不断提升自身综合能力，努力把握适合自己的创业机会。" 山东工艺美术学院创新创 ...

美联储博斯蒂克：在就业方面还没有看到太大的变化，企业称没有大规模裁员的计划。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the urban surveyed unemployment rate in China averaged 5.2% from January to April, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, with a slight decrease to 5.1% in April, indicating a stable employment situation despite external pressures [1][3]. Employment Stability - In April, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of decline [3]. - The unemployment rates for migrant workers and youth aged 16-24 also showed a decrease, with the rate for migrant workers at 4.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [3][4]. - The demand for labor in enterprises increased in April, contributing to the improvement in unemployment rates [3]. External Environment Impact - The external environment has become increasingly complex, with rising uncertainties affecting the labor market, leading to a 0.1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate for local registered populations and a 0.2 percentage point increase for migrant agricultural workers compared to the same period last year [3][5]. - Analysts suggest that the impact of U.S. tariff policies on employment is significant in certain industries, particularly leather, footwear, and textiles, but overall, the short-term employment market may remain relatively stable [3]. Employment Policies and Initiatives - The government has implemented various policies to support employment, focusing on key sectors and groups, including a plan to develop job positions in seven key areas and six tasks to support employment for priority groups [5][6]. - A series of recruitment events have been organized to address the employment challenges faced by recent graduates, with over 1200 companies offering more than 50,000 positions during a recent job fair [6][7]. Long-term Employment Challenges - Structural employment issues persist, particularly for youth, while some industries face labor shortages, especially for skilled workers [5][6]. - The need for educational reforms to align with industry demands is emphasized, as there is often a four-year lag between education and employment, which can hinder job readiness [7].

Employment Stability in Guangdong - Guangdong has focused on stabilizing total employment, expanding new job opportunities, and improving job quality, with a total employment figure of approximately 70.57 million, accounting for about 10% of the national total [1] - The urban survey unemployment rate in the first quarter was below the national average, with a cumulative addition of 348,600 urban jobs, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, achieving 31.7% of the annual target of 1.1 million [1] Talent Acquisition and Retention - BYD has absorbed over 50,000 fresh graduates in the past three years, with around 70% being master's and doctoral graduates, and 80% in R&D positions [2] - The company has trained nearly 1,800 postdoctoral researchers, achieving a 100% retention rate, with key technologies led by these researchers [2] - BYD's success in talent retention is attributed to its emphasis on self-cultivation, competitive salaries, and benefits that enhance employee loyalty [2] Skills Training Initiatives - Guangdong has invested in skill enhancement, with 161,000 participants in subsidized vocational training in the first quarter, offering training subsidies ranging from 800 to 3,600 yuan based on job categories and skill levels [3] - The "pay after training" initiative alleviates financial burdens on trainees, with a vocational training school reporting an 80% employment rate for over 4,000 trained individuals in the past two years [3] Employment Services Accessibility - Employment service stations have been established to provide local job services, with 1,080 stations built across the province, including 153 standardized employment stations [5] - A large-scale recruitment event in March attracted 12,000 participants, with 5,120 job openings from 1,273 companies, showcasing Guangdong's commitment to employment stability [5] - The "Million Talents Gathering in South Guangdong" initiative aims to attract 1 million college graduates to work and start businesses in the province [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, under Jerome Powell, faces a challenging "lose-lose" situation due to the dual mandate of full employment and low inflation, compounded by the tariff policies of the Trump administration [1][5][6]. Policy Dilemma - The tariff policies exert downward pressure on economic growth while posing upward risks to inflation, severely constraining the Federal Reserve's policy options [5][6]. - Dan North emphasizes that Powell's best course of action is to do nothing, as any decision made now could be wrong due to the high uncertainty in the current policy environment [6]. Historical Context - Historical precedents show that Federal Reserve leaders have often been criticized for their hesitance in adjusting interest rates, leading to missed opportunities to act before economic downturns [3][9]. - The tendency to wait for overwhelming data before taking action has been a consistent pattern, resulting in delayed responses to economic shifts [3][11]. Labor Market Signals - The labor market is often the last to signal an impending recession, which suggests that the Federal Reserve's reliance on labor market indicators may lead to delayed policy adjustments [11]. - Powell's previous reluctance to raise interest rates in response to rising inflation in 2021 exemplifies the risks of acting too late, as the Fed is still struggling to bring inflation back to the 2% target [11].

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP experienced a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.3% in Q1 2025, marking the first quarterly negative growth since 2022, significantly lower than the 2.4% growth in Q4 2024 [3] - However, the actual GDP showed a year-on-year growth of 2% after seasonal adjustments, indicating that the economic fundamentals have not deteriorated significantly [3] Trade and Imports - A major factor contributing to the economic slowdown was a significant increase in imports, which rose by 50.9% in Q1 as businesses sought to avoid tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, leading to a trade deficit of $318.5 billion [4] - The "net exports" negatively impacted GDP by 4.83 percentage points, the largest single-quarter drag since 1947 [4] Domestic Demand - Domestic consumption and investment remained strong, with personal consumption expenditures increasing by 1.8% year-on-year, contributing 1.21 percentage points to economic growth [5] - Core consumption, excluding energy and food, grew by 3.5%, demonstrating resilience in consumer spending [5] - Private investment also saw a counter-cyclical growth, with non-residential investment increasing by 9.8%, and equipment investment surging by 22.5%, driven by computers and industrial equipment [5] Inflation and Employment - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed improvement, decreasing from 3.0% at the beginning of the year to 2.4% in Q1, primarily due to falling energy prices [6] - Employment figures remained stable, with an average monthly increase of 174,000 non-farm jobs and an unemployment rate steady between 4.0% and 4.2% [6] Future Outlook - If trade negotiations with China and other countries progress positively in Q2, the negative impact of imports on the economy may significantly diminish, potentially leading to a strong economic rebound [7]

值得一提的是，考虑到历史上美联储的"迟滞"基因，美媒颇具反讽地评论到： "如果特朗普给鲍威尔贴上的"为时已晚"（Too Late）标签成为现实，他也并不孤单... 毕竟，美联储领导人在调整利率时的犹豫不决已成历史常态。" 在美联储的双重使命——充分就业和低通胀——同时受到特朗普政府关税政策威胁的背景下， 鲍威尔 正面临一个近乎无解的"双输"局面 ：无论他掌舵下的美联储选择何种货币路径——收紧、放松抑或是 维持现状——似乎都注定要被贴上 "为时已晚"（Too Late） 的标签。 不少经济学家认为， 面对降息恐致通胀，紧缩或伤就业的"双输" 局面，鲍威尔此刻 只能按兵不动 。 安联贸易北美高级经济学家Dan North表示： 完全正确的做法就是什么也不做，因为不管怎样这都将是一个错误。 这些案例共同指向一个规律：在缺乏压倒性数据证明行动的必要性之前，美联储往往倾向于观望。 Dan North总结道： "回顾70年代以来的历史，美联储在政策周期的两个拐点上几乎总是迟到... 他们倾向于等待，以求万无一失，但当他们最终行动时，往往为时已晚，经济多半已滑入 衰退。" 政策两难：关税影响下的增长与通胀困境 当前，鲍威尔 ...

在对美国经济前景的展望上，鲍威尔指出，通胀略高于2%的目标，但"核心通胀状况良好"，就业市场 也接近充分就业，因此美联储目前"无需仓促行动"，政策工具也"准备充足"。不过他也警告，如果特朗 普政府宣布的大规模加征关税最终落地，可能会推高通胀、拖累经济增长，并导致失业上升。 在被问及经济当前面临的风险时，鲍威尔坦言，目前通胀与失业的上行风险"双双上升"，美联储需要在 两者之间进行权衡。他强调，美联储将密切关注两项关键变量(通胀与就业)，并在必要时作出政策调 整，"如果我们看到就业市场显著恶化，当然会采取支持行动。" 近期数据显示，美国4月失业率为4.2%，仍处于主流估算的"最大就业"范围之内。但与去年相比，美联 储已显现出更高的容忍度，允许就业市场一定程度上的放缓，以对抗持续偏高的通胀。 面对市场对降息的高度关注，鲍威尔表示，美联储当前采取"观望"策略，并不会因预期经济放缓而预先 调整利率。他指出，由于贸易政策、关税等变量仍存在极大不确定性，美联储"无法提前判断数据如何 演变"，因此将"静待更清晰的数据指引再决定政策走向"。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔周三在新闻发布会上表示，美联储在货币政策制定上将继 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve does not need to rush to adjust interest rate policies as current data supports a wait-and-see approach, particularly the weakening relationship between confidence data and spending data [1] Trump Tariffs - The impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation may be temporary; if the tariffs remain in place, the Federal Reserve will struggle to make progress on its dual policy goals of price stability and employment [1] - Businesses are delaying investment decisions, and households are postponing consumption expenditures, limiting the Federal Reserve's ability to take preemptive action [1] - Trade negotiations could significantly alter the current situation [1] Inflation and Employment - The potential inflation outlook appears favorable, with data likely to easily meet one of the Federal Reserve's dual targets of price stability and employment [1] Central Bank Independence - Statements from Trump are not expected to affect the Federal Reserve's operations [2]

美联储可能会发现，（价格+就业这）两大职责之间关系紧张。 当前，美联储准备就绪，等待获得确定性。 鲍威尔：（美国总统特朗普）政策对通胀的影响可能是暂时性的。 美联储在维持通胀预期被锚定方面恪守承诺。 ...