聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月20日 张晓珍 Z0003135 PE PP价格及价差 | 品种 | 5月19日 | 5月16日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2505 收盘价 | 7330 | 7520 | -190 | -2.53% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7238 | 7236 | 2 | 0.03% | | | PP2505 收盘价 | 7137 | 7248 | -111 | -1.53% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 7078 | 7093 | -15 | -0.21% | | | L2505-2509 | 92 | 284 | -192 | -67.61% | | | PP2505-2509 | 59 | 155 | -96 | -61.94% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 7160 | 7170 | -10 | -0.14% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 7300 | 7300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-20 沪锌价格依旧在博弈库存变化 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-20.95 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌120元/吨至22650元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨5元/吨至230元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌220元/吨至22510元/ 吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌95元/吨至90元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌140元/吨 至22630元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至210元/吨。 期货方面：2025-05-19沪锌主力合约开于22480元/吨，收于22455元/吨，较前一交易日下跌70元/吨，全天交易日成 交126096手，较前一交易日增加7907手，全天交易日持仓85560手，较前一交易日减少8786手，日内价格震荡，最 高点达到22565元/吨，最低点达到22380元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-05-19，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.38万吨，较上周同期减少-0.17万吨。截止2025-05-19，LME 锌库存为160800吨，较上一交易日减少3400吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. It is about to face the seasonal off - season and the possibility of weakening manufacturing demand (exports). The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, the daily average iron ore production has peaked and declined, while the port clearance volume has slightly increased. It is expected that the iron ore production will remain at a high level in the short term. The iron ore is slightly de - stocked under high iron ore production, and the steel mill inventory remains low. The terminal demand of finished products determines the sustainability of high - level iron ore production. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate in the short term [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - For silicon iron, the daily production has declined, the supply pressure has been gradually relieved, and the factory inventory has gradually decreased, but the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. For silicon manganese, the production is accelerating to decline, the supply and demand contradiction is limited, and the price is expected to oscillate, stabilize, and rebound [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - The coke and coking coal futures showed a weak oscillating trend last week. The supply - demand pattern is still loose in the short term. It is recommended to short the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal at high prices and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of long hot - rolled coils and short coke/coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most steel products decreased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price decreased by 36 yuan/ton. The cost of some steel products decreased, and the profit of most steel products increased [1]. - **Production**: The daily average iron ore production remained unchanged at 245.6 tons, the production of five major steel products decreased by 5.8 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar production increased by 3.0 tons (1.3%), and the hot - rolled coil production decreased by 8.4 tons (- 2.6%) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 45.4 tons (- 3.1%), the rebar inventory decreased by 33.8 tons (- 5.2%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 17.6 tons (- 4.8%) [1]. - **Demand**: The daily average construction material trading volume decreased by 0.3 tons (- 3.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 68.6 tons (8.1%), the apparent demand for rebar increased by 46.4 tons (21.7%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 20.0 tons (6.5%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 8.8 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton (- 1.0%). The basis of some varieties increased significantly [4]. - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 95.1 tons (- 3.9%), and the global shipment volume decreased by 21.5 tons (- 0.7%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average iron ore production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.9 tons (- 0.4%), and the 45 - port daily average port clearance volume increased by 8.7 tons (2.8%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 174.8 tons (- 1.2%), and the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills increased by 2.2 tons (0.0%) [4]. Silicon and Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased slightly. The closing price of the silicon iron main contract increased by 26.0 yuan/ton (0.5%), and the closing price of the silicon manganese main contract increased by 12.0 yuan/ton (0.2%) [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost of some regions remained stable, and the production profit of some regions increased or remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: The production of silicon iron decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%), and the production of silicon manganese decreased by 0.9 tons (- 5.4%). The start - up rates of both decreased [5]. - **Demand**: The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese remained relatively stable [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises decreased by 1.0 tons (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises increased by 2.5 tons (13.9%) [5]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal decreased. For example, the price of first - class wet - quenched coke in Shanxi decreased by 50 yuan/ton (- 3.84%), and the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) decreased by 20 yuan/ton (- 1.9%) [6]. - **Supply**: The coke production increased slightly, and the coking coal production remained at a relatively high level. The domestic coal mines continued to resume production, and the Mongolian customs clearance volume increased from a low level [6]. - **Demand**: The iron ore production showed signs of peaking and declining, and the downstream users' replenishment was mainly on - demand [6]. - **Inventory**: The coke inventory in coking plants continued to decline, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the steel mill inventory was low. The coking coal inventory in mines continued to accumulate, and the downstream inventory was at a low level [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The price of nickel is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations. The Indonesian nickel ore policy and smelting - end inventory performance may limit the downside elasticity, while the upside elasticity may be constrained by conversion economics and long - term surplus expectations [1]. - Stainless steel has weak marginal supply and demand, may oscillate at a low level in the short term, and has a slight chance of recovery in the medium term. The valuation of stainless steel still centers on cost, and cost support may underpin the bottom space [2]. Summary by Related Catalog Nickel Fundamentals - Indonesian high - grade nickel ore shortage drives up the cost of integrated pyrometallurgy. The premium of 1.6% nickel ore rises by $2 to $27 - 28 per wet ton, and the total price increases by 25% year - on - year to $53.6 per wet ton [1]. - Due to the impact of restocking demand, the short - term inventory accumulation at home and abroad under the expectation of refined nickel surplus is less than expected, and the inventory even shows a slight decline [1]. - The negative feedback of stainless steel exerts pressure on ferronickel, and ferronickel inventory starts to accumulate again. In mid - May, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 29,554.5 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 36% and 4% respectively [1][4]. - The conversion window from ferronickel to high - grade nickel matte has opened on the futures market, which may drag down the upper valuation of refined nickel [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - Stainless steel has weak marginal supply and demand. The seasonal destocking speed of stainless steel is slower than in previous years under the previous high - production pattern. Although tariff relaxation may relieve some export pressure, there is no substantial change in the overall negative feedback stage [2]. - In May, the stainless steel production plan of Zhonglian Jin was 3.425 million tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 2% and 0% respectively, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. Among them, the production plan of 300 - series stainless steel in May was 1.706 million tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 2% and 3% respectively, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate has converged, especially for the 300 - series [2]. - The profit margin of stainless steel is difficult to expand significantly, and its valuation still centers on cost. After the price of ferronickel decreases, the futures steel price is still lower than the spot cost. If calculated at 950 yuan per nickel, the cash cost of stainless steel is about 13,000 yuan per ton [2]. - The contradiction in the ore end may limit the bottom space of ferronickel. In late May, the premium of nickel ore may rise by another $2 to $27 - 28 per wet ton, and the total price increases by 25% year - on - year to $53.6 per wet ton. According to the full - cost estimate of Indonesian ferronickel, Indonesian ferronickel may have suffered certain losses [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 763 tons to 42,928 tons. Among them, warehouse receipt inventory increased by 75 tons to 23,501 tons, spot inventory decreased by 838 tons to 12,957 tons, and bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 6,470 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 2,448 tons to 195,222 tons [3]. - The ferronickel inventory at the end of mid - May according to Yousewang was 29,554.5 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 36% and 4% respectively, and the inventory pressure increased marginally [4]. - The stainless steel social inventory was 1,108,250 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42%. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless steel inventory was 675,382 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.71%, and the hot - rolled stainless steel inventory was 432,868 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.17% [4]. - The nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 97,200 wet tons to 7.0624 million wet tons. All the nickel ore was from the Philippines. By grade, the low - nickel and high - iron ore was 3.4012 million wet tons, and the medium - and high - grade nickel ore was 3.6612 million wet tons [6]. Market News - The Indonesian government has proposed relevant adjustment suggestions for non - tax national revenues. The resource tax rates for nickel ore, ferronickel, nickel pig iron, and nickel sulfide have been increased from 10%, 2%, 5%, and 2% to the floating ranges of 14% - 19%, 5% - 7%, 5% - 7%, and 4.5% - 6.5% respectively. The new nickel product royalty policy was officially signed by the Indonesian President on April 11 and implemented on April 26 [7]. - On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford in Canada proposed that Ontario's minerals are also crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the United States in response to the US tariff threat [7]. - On April 27, the first - phase project of the Indonesian CNI ferronickel RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced ferronickel, marking the project's entry into the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% - grade ferronickel, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [7]. - An important nickel smelter in an Indonesian metal processing park has resumed production. In March this year, the plant almost halted all production due to a fatal landslide in the tailings reservoir area. As of now, the production capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials, jointly held by GEM Co., Ltd., Tsingshan Holding Group, and Guangdong Brunp Recycling Technology Co., Ltd., has recovered to 70% - 80% [8]. - In February, the Philippine media reported that the parliament was discussing a bill to ban nickel ore exports, which was in the deliberation stage of the two - house committee. Once signed into law, it will take effect in five years. On May 9, there was news that the Philippine government planned to implement a nickel ore export ban starting from June 2025, but the authenticity and start date are still to be verified [8]. - From May 10 to 11, high - level China - US economic and trade talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland. On May 12, the two sides issued a joint statement. The US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods according to Executive Orders No. 14259 on April 8, 2025, and No. 14266 on April 9, 2025, and modify the 34% reciprocal tariffs imposed on Chinese goods according to Executive Order No. 14257 on April 2, 2025. Among them, 24% of the tariffs will be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% will be retained. Correspondingly, China will cancel 91% of the counter - tariffs on US goods, suspend 24% of the 34% counter - tariffs on US reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, and retain the remaining 10%. China will also suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures against the US [9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking The report provides a table of weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless steel, including closing prices, trading volumes, premiums, and other indicators of futures contracts and related products [11].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations with a slight decline in prices, influenced by macroeconomic factors and changes in supply and demand dynamics [1] Market Performance - On May 15, 2025, the main copper contract opened at 78,900 CNY/ton and closed at 77,870 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.36% from the previous close [1] - The night session saw the contract open at 78,160 CNY/ton and close at 78,490 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13% [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic supply is expected to increase as the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper warehouse receipts rose by over 20,000 tons to more than 50,000 tons [1] - Peru's copper exports showed a recovery in Q1, with a total export value of 6.62 billion USD, marking a 23% increase year-on-year [1] - The U.S. is projected to export 600,000 tons of scrap copper in 2024, with over half going to China [1] Price and Inventory Trends - The LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,075 tons to 184,650 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 10,466 tons to 60,535 tons [1] - As of May 12, the domestic market's electrolytic copper inventory was 132,000 tons, a change of 8,900 tons from the previous week [1] Strategic Recommendations - The strategy for copper is cautiously bullish, with recommendations to buy on dips for hedging purposes [1] - The market is currently characterized by a backwardation structure, leading to weakened consumption as new orders remain subdued [1]

Group 1 - The booking volume for container transport from China to the US surged nearly 300% after the mutual tariff reductions between the US and China, with an average of 21,530 standard containers booked in the week ending May 14, up from 5,709 containers in the week ending May 5 [1] - Rebar production in China increased to 2.2653 million tons, a rise of 30,000 tons or 1.34% from the previous week, while apparent demand rose by 460,000 tons or 21.69% to 2.6029 million tons [1] - Brazil's Mato Grosso state achieved a record soybean yield of 66.3 bags per hectare for the 2024/2025 season, exceeding recent averages by 14 bags [1] Group 2 - The expected biodiesel blending obligation in the US is projected to be between 4.6 to 4.8 billion gallons, significantly lower than the previous estimate of 5.5 to 5.75 billion gallons [2] - Brazil's soybean exports are forecasted to reach 3.9898 million tons for the week of May 11 to May 17, up from 3.1062 million tons the previous week [2] - Approximately 17% of US soybean planting areas are affected by drought, an increase from 15% the previous week, while 22% of corn planting areas are affected, up from 20% [2] Group 3 - The float glass industry in China is experiencing a supply contraction, with an average operating rate of 75%, down 0.24% week-on-week, and production falling to 1.0917 million tons, the lowest in two and a half months [3] - The total production capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina in China is 10.9222 million tons per year, with an operating capacity of 8.412 million tons per year, and the weekly operating rate decreased by 2.66 percentage points to 77.02% [3]

Overall Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention any industry investment ratings. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel prices have been falling this year, priced with the expectation of weak demand after the imposition of tariffs. However, the industry has strong supply and demand, with continuous inventory reduction. Exports and re - exports support steel demand this year. With low inventory support, improved macro - sentiment is expected to repair valuations. Attention should be paid to the impact of terminal restocking on spot prices. For the October contract, pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3200 - 3250 for rebar and 3300 - 3400 for hot - rolled coils [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated upwards. Affected by macro - sentiment, the black series generally rose. In the short term, iron ore is expected to have a valuation repair, but in the medium - to - long term, a bearish view should be maintained. The high - level sustainability of hot - metal production depends on the terminal demand for finished products, and the marginal changes lie in exports and infrastructure [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures oscillated and rebounded. The macro - positive factors drove a general rise in commodities. On the supply side, coke enterprises' production increased due to good orders, and coking profits improved. On the demand side, hot - metal production remained high after the holiday, and steel mills replenished inventory as needed. It is necessary to pay attention to whether hot - metal production will decline in the future. The inventory of coking plants and steel mills decreased, and the port inventory decreased slightly. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coke (equal value) [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated and rose. The macro - positive factors drove a general rise in commodities. The spot market continued to decline slightly. The futures market was in a deep - discount structure, with large hedging pressure. The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remained loose in the short term. It is recommended to continue to hold the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on coking coal (equal value) [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon futures oscillated strongly. Recently, manufacturers have carried out maintenance and production cuts, and the production decline has accelerated. The supply - demand contradiction has been alleviated, and it is expected that the price will oscillate, stabilize, and rebound. The ferromanganese futures also rose slightly. The supply pressure has been relieved after previous production cuts, and it is expected that the price will also oscillate and stabilize [6]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally increased. For example, rebar 10 - contract rose 48 yuan/ton from 3079 to 3127, and hot - rolled coil 10 - contract rose 52 yuan/ton from 3215 to 3267 [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton. Some steel product profits changed, such as the East China rebar profit decreased by 21 yuan/ton to 5 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output increased slightly by 0.2 to 245.6 (0.1% increase). The output of five major steel products decreased by 9.5 to 874.2 (- 1.1%), and rebar output decreased by 9.8 to 223.5 (- 4.2%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 29.0 to 1476.1 (2.0% increase), rebar inventory increased by 9.6 to 653.6 (1.5% increase), and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 10.9 to 365.1 (3.1% increase) [1]. Trading and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.2 to 12.0 (22.4% increase). The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 125.7 to 845.2 (- 12.9%), and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 77.8 to 213.9 (- 26.7%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increased, and the 09 - contract basis of various iron ore powders also increased significantly. For example, the 09 - contract basis of PB powder increased from 32.7 to 87.9 [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 63.1 to 2449.7 (- 2.5%), and the global shipping volume decreased by 137.7 to 3050.5 (- 4.3%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 to 245.6 (0.1% increase). The national monthly pig iron output increased by 859.5 to 7529.4 (12.9%), and the national monthly crude steel output increased by 1687.2 to 9284.1 (22.2%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 102.2 to 14340.88 (0.7%), and the inventory of 64 steel mills decreased by 376.1 to 8959.0 (- 4.0%) [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The 09 - contract of coke rose by 35 yuan/ton to 1482 (2.4% increase), and the 01 - contract rose by 33 yuan/ton to 1508 (2.2% increase). The coking profit increased by 7 to 1 (700.0% increase) [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 to 66.9 (- 0.2%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.3 (- 0.24%) [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2 to 245.6 (0.1% increase) [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 17.8 to 994.6 (- 1.8%), the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.5 to 94.4 (- 4.6%), and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 4.2 to 671.0 (- 0.64%) [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The 09 - contract of coking coal rose by 24 to 894.5 (2.76% increase), and the 01 - contract rose by 29.5 to 911 (3.35% increase). The profit of sample coal mines decreased by 4 to 399 (- 1.0%) [5]. Supply - The output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 2.8 to 893.1 (0.34%) and the clean coal output increasing by 2.0 to 457.3 (0.4%) [5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 to 66.9 (- 0.2%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 to 47.3 (- 0.2%) [5]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.2 to 210.9 (4.6%), the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 42.7 to 916.6 (- 4.4%), and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 2.4 to 787.2 (0.34%) [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon 72%FeSi main - contract closing price rose by 66 to 5678 (1.2%), and the ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 main - contract closing price rose by 54 to 5864 (0.9%) [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions changed slightly. For example, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 22.3 to 5787.9 (0.4%). Some production profits decreased, such as the production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 3 to - 124 (- 3.0%) [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprises' start - up rate increased by 1.8 to 32.5 (5.8%), and the ferromanganese weekly output decreased by 1.1 to 17.2 (- 5.9%) [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 (- 1.1%), and the ferromanganese demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased by 0.2 to 12.6 (- 1.8%) [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 1.0 to 7.4 (- 11.8%), and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese increased by 2.5 to 20.7 (13.9%) [6].

| 财产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月14日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张庆 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3220 | O | 118 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | 0 | 108 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3340 | 3310 | 30 | 238 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3033 | 3036 | -3 | 187 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3079 | 3082 | -3 | 141 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3102 | 3103 | -1 | 118 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3260 | 3280 | -20 | 32 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3210 | 3200 | 10 | -18 | | | 热卷现货(华南) | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry are weak. Although there has been some production reduction on the supply side, the approaching wet season in the southwest region is expected to increase supply. The falling prices of silicon coal and electricity during the wet season have weakened cost support. On the consumption side, performance is weak, with the possibility of further production cuts [2]. - The futures market for polysilicon has been volatile recently. Downstream production scheduling has decreased month-on-month. News of joint production cuts by silicon material factories has had a significant impact on the market. Attention should be paid to changes in the number of warehouse receipts and the impact of position reduction on the market [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On May 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2506 opened at 8,320 yuan/ton and closed at 8,230 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2505 had a position of 162,299 lots, and on May 14, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,494 lots, a change of -603 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,700 - 10,300 yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton; and 99 silicon was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton. In recent days, downstream alloy users have placed orders, and some traders reported improved trading volumes compared to last week. Sellers' quotes remained stable, but downstream users still had a tendency to bargain [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon DMC enterprises maintained stable quotes, with local transaction prices slightly decreasing. The overall transaction range was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, but market transaction expectations were not strong. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed. It is expected that after May 20, downstream enterprises' raw material inventories will be depleted, which may drive market trading volumes [1]. Polysilicon - On May 13, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 rose significantly and then declined. It opened at 38,230 yuan/ton and closed at 38,270 yuan/ton, a 0.91% change from the previous trading day. The main contract had a position of 52,252 lots (69,417 lots the previous day) and a trading volume of 321,982 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of polysilicon reclaimed material was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower polysilicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg; N-type material was 37.00 - 44.00 yuan/kg; and N-type granular silicon was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventories decreased, as did silicon wafer inventories. The latest statistics showed polysilicon inventory at 25.70 (a month-on-month change of -1.90%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.13GW (a month-on-month change of -12.08%), weekly polysilicon production at 21,400.00 tons (a month-on-month change of -4.46%), and silicon wafer production at 12.35GW (a month-on-month change of -7.07%) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.98 yuan/piece, N-type 210mm was 1.30 yuan/piece, and N-type 210R silicon wafers were 1.10 yuan/piece. For battery cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.27 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; and HJT210 half-cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W. For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. Upstream enterprises should sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish on the 2506 contract [7]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [7]. - Cross - variety: None [7]. - Spot - futures: None [7]. - Options: None [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views Tin Industry - The macro sentiment may drive the tin price to rebound, but considering the supply recovery and weak demand, it is advisable to try short - selling in the range of 265,000 - 270,000, and focus on the supply recovery rhythm [1] Copper Industry - The copper market presents a combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", with short - term prices likely to fluctuate. Pay attention to the continuation of the strong reality after May, the tariff negotiation rhythm, and the resistance level of 77,500 - 78,500 [2] Aluminum Industry - The alumina market has mixed factors and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The aluminum price is supported by inventory reduction, tariff easing, and policy expectations, but is pressured by weakening demand and cost, and is expected to be weak, with the support level at 18,000 - 18,500 [4] Zinc Industry - Short - term zinc prices may be supported by tariff easing. In the future, if tariffs lead to insufficient consumption, the price may decline; otherwise, it may maintain a high - level shock. In the long - term, a short - selling strategy is recommended, with the reference range of 21,500 - 23,500 [6] Lithium Industry - Tariff news has limited impact on lithium. The supply - demand contradiction is clear, and the support is weakening. The short - term price may stabilize, but the upward space is limited. A short - selling strategy is recommended, with the reference range of 62,000 - 66,000 [9] Nickel Industry - The macro sentiment improves, and the nickel price has cost support, but the medium - term supply is loose. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range of 122,000 - 128,000 [11] Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel market has some price support from the ore end, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction expands. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the reference range of 12,600 - 13,200 [14] Summary by Directory Tin Industry Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price rose to 262,800, up 1.23%; LME 0 - 3 spread rose 72.79% [1] Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit and Loss - Import loss decreased by 74.84% to - 2,373.05 yuan/ton [1] Monthly Spread - 2506 - 2507 spread rose 433.33% to 160 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - March tin ore imports decreased by 4.83%, while SMM refined tin production increased by 8.75% [1] Inventory Changes - SHEF inventory decreased by 2.13%, while social inventory increased by 3.66% [1] Copper Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose 0.09% to 78,275 yuan/ton; import loss was - 570 yuan/ton [2] Monthly Spread - 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 180 yuan/ton to 330 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Data - April electrolytic copper production increased by 0.32%, and March imports increased by 15.24% [2] Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory decreased by 9.63% to 8.07 million tons [2] Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose 1.02% to 19,810 yuan/ton; 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 35 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Data - April alumina production decreased by 6.17%, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.91% [4] Inventory Changes - Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.50% to 60.1 million tons [4] Zinc Industry Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 0.22% to 22,720 yuan/ton; 2505 - 2506 spread decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [6] Fundamental Data - April refined zinc production increased by 0.31%, and March imports increased by 9.47% [6] Inventory Changes - Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 1.66% to 8.55 million tons [6] Lithium Industry Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price decreased by 1.00% to 64,600 yuan/ton; 2505 - 2506 spread rose 220 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton [9] Fundamental Data - April lithium carbonate production decreased by 6.65%, and demand increased by 3.02% [9] Inventory Changes - Last week, the overall inventory decreased slightly, mainly due to the reduction in downstream inventory [9] Nickel Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose 1.92% to 127,225 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 6.35% to - 183 [11] Fundamental Data - April refined nickel production increased by 6.08%, and imports decreased by 68.84% [11] Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory decreased by 3.08% to 28,675 [11] Stainless Steel Industry Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price rose 0.77% to 13,150 yuan/ton; 2506 - 2507 spread remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton [14] Fundamental Data - April 300 - series stainless steel production in China increased by 11.37%, and exports increased by 70.98% [14] Inventory Changes - 300 - series social inventory in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 1.94% to 56 million tons [14]