投资要点 风险提示：历史经验未来不一定适用、政策超预期变化、经济修复不及预期。 2025 年 12 月 20 日 策略类●证券研究报告 分析师 邓利军 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn 分析师 张欣诺 SAC 执业证书编号：S0910525110001 zhangxinnuo@huajinsc.cn 相关报告 局部人气聚集推升新股板块交投意愿，但活 跃周期开启可能仍待观察-华金证券新股周 报 2025.12.14 春季行情中行业如何轮动？ 2025.12.13 春季行情开启中，聚焦成长 定期报告 美 联 储 降 息 进 一 步 催 化 春 季 行 情 开 启 2025.12.11 定 调 积 极 ， 进 一 步 强 化 春 季 行 情 开 启 2025.12.9 http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 27 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 当前市场对经济偏弱和日央行加息的担忧过度。（1）经济中长期韧性仍在，且当 前股价已对悲观预期反映较充分。一是 11 月经济数据偏弱，但股价已较充分反映 了悲观预期。二是中长期经济和盈利韧性仍在： ...

本周，创业板中盘200指数下跌1.3%，创业板成长指数下跌2.2%，创业板指数下跌2.3%。虽然指数调整，但资金却借道相 关ETF涌入，创业板ETF（159915）本周前四个交易日合计净流入超25亿元。 由创业板中成长风格突出、业绩增长较高、预期 盈利较好流动性好的50只股票组成,电力设备、 医药生物、通信行业合计占比约60% 注1:目前全市场跟踪创业板指数的ETF共16只,跟踪创业板中盘200指数的ETF共5只,跟踪创业板成长指 数的ETF共1只,跟踪同一指数的不同ETF产品的费率、跟踪误差、规模等有所不同。银行、互联网平台等 相关销售机构提供可场外投资的ETF联接基金。低费率产品,其管理费率0.15%/年,托管费率0.05%/年。 | | 创业板 | 创业板中盘 | 创业板成长 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指数 | 200指数 | 指数 | | 本周涨跌幅 | -2. 3% | -1. 3% | -2. 2% | | 指数滚动 市盈率 | 39.7倍 | 100. 4倍 | 39.5倍 | | 滚动市盈率 | 31. 6% | 该指数2023年 | 42. 8% | | ...

商业航天板块日K线图 张大伟 制图 ◎记者 李雨琪 12月18日，A股市场呈现沪强深弱的分化行情。截至收盘，上证指数报3876.37点，涨0.16%；深证成指 报13053.97点，跌1.29%；创业板指报3107.06点，跌2.17%。沪深北三市全天成交16768亿元。 盘面上，全市场超2800只个股上涨。商业航天概念全线爆发，星辰科技、盛洋科技、顺灏股份等多股涨 停；大消费板块反复活跃，零售方向领涨，中央商场、上海九百涨停；AI医疗概念走强，嘉和美康以 20%幅度涨停；电池、电网设备等板块跌幅居前。 商业航天概念卷土重来 受多重利好提振，商业航天概念昨日再度走强。截至收盘，盛洋科技2连板，星辰科技以30%幅度涨 停，万隆光电以20%幅度涨停，顺灏股份、西部材料等十余股涨停。 近日，星辰科技发布投资者关系活动记录表称，在商业航天产业链中，公司主要为火箭发射地面装备提 供产品配套。随着商业航天应用进入提速阶段，公司已于2025年成功承接和落实了若干商业航天领域的 订单。当前，公司已实现部分产品的交付与验证，并计划于2026年启动多批次生产任务，以应对多家民 营航天企业日益增长的发射需求。 近期商业航天板块迎来 ...

12月18日，A股三大指数涨跌不一。全市场1300余只ETF约三成收涨。卫星、航空主题ETF领涨，单日 涨幅前十的ETF中，相关主题产品占9只，涨幅均超2%。 02 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 科创债ETF今日成交活跃，占据ETF市场成交额前二十榜单的"半壁江山"。多只产品场内成交额较昨日 明显放量，更有产品今日成交额创基金上市以来新高。据Wind数据统计，全市场24只科创债ETF今天成 交额合计超过1400亿元，较昨日放量超150亿元。 01 资金流向方面，前一交易日（12月17日），ETF市场资金爆量涌入，全天净流入额超270亿元，创12月 以来最高单日净流入额，较12月16日增超80%。其中，A500ETF吸金势头尤盛，全天净流入金额超过 110亿元，是12月16日的3倍，多只相关产品单日净流入金额居市场前十。 卫星航空主题ETF领涨 12月18日，在ETF整体跌多涨少的形势下，卫星航空主题ETF逆势上涨，"刷屏"涨幅榜前十。涨幅前五 的卫星主题ETF，盘中交易价格一度均创下基金上市以来新高，截至收盘，涨幅均超3%；12月以来涨 幅均超17%，也成为12月以 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a "spring market" driven by earnings growth in 2026, supported by policies aimed at reducing competition, advancements in AI infrastructure, and a recovering consumer market [1][2]. Market Short-term Style Shift - Morgan Stanley's China stock strategy team has shifted its outlook to positive for MSCI China and CSI 300 indices since January 9, 2023, predicting that the upward trend may continue until 2026 [2]. - A style shift from growth and momentum sectors to value, defensive, and high-dividend sectors is recommended, likely lasting until the end of this year and early next year [2]. - The MSCI China, CSI 300, and MSCI Hong Kong indices are projected to reach 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively by 2026, representing potential increases of approximately 22%, 13.5%, and 17.8% [2]. Earnings Growth as Market Driver - Stable growth in earnings per share (EPS) is identified as the core driver for sustained market growth [3]. - The proportion of companies in the MSCI China index with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased since May [3]. - The current net profit margin of Chinese listed companies (excluding the financial sector) is relatively low in the Asia-Pacific region, but the return on equity (ROE) remains strong [3]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign long-term funds have increased their holdings in the Chinese stock market, with a 100 basis point rise in the holdings of global active funds by the end of October [4]. - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: "anti-involution," AI, overseas expansion, and consumption, with real estate as a potential theme [4][5]. Sector-Specific Insights - The "anti-involution" theme focuses on sectors with strong growth prospects, such as batteries and photovoltaics, as well as macro-sensitive sectors like steel and cement [5]. - Companies with overseas operations are expected to gain more attention from global investors due to their balanced business models [5]. - The essential consumer sector in MSCI China is currently undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [5]. AI Sector Analysis - The assessment of whether the AI sector is in a bubble depends on valuation levels, with recent corrections observed in semiconductor hardware valuations [6]. - The focus is on energy storage companies within AI infrastructure, which are currently in a recovery phase [6]. - The technology sector's performance in the fourth quarter is crucial for sustaining high expectations, with long-term growth dependent on companies improving quality and profitability [6].

中证A500指数由各行业市值较大、流动性较好的500只股票组成，覆盖93个中证三级行业中的91个，其 中信息技术、医药卫生等新兴产业权重较高，兼顾"核心资产"与"新质生产力"；创业板指数则由创业板 中市值大、流动性好的100只股票组成，战略性新兴产业占比超90%，通信设备等AI硬件产业链占比约 30%。 今日午后，大盘强劲拉升，通信设备、固态电池等科技方向领涨，银行、券商、保险等大金融板块集体 走强，贵金属、能源金属延续涨势，截至13:58，中证A500指数上涨1.8%，创业板指数上涨2.7%，相关 产品交投活跃，A500ETF易方达（159361）盘中成交额突破50亿元，净申购超4亿份，创业板ETF （159915）成交额也超30亿元。 A500ETF易方达（159361）、创业板ETF（159915）分别跟踪以上指数，且均实行ETF中最低一档 0.15%/年的管理费率，可助力投资者低成本布局春季行情。 国泰海通证券表示，保收益降仓位已经步入尾声，岁末年初的再配置与机构资金回流有望改善市场流动 性和活跃成交，跨年攻势已经开始。考虑到前期股指的大幅调整、总量政策加码与增量入市环境，当下 是布局春季行情的重要窗 ...

有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进 度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期 +政策托底+产业升级，股市机会成本下降，风险溢价改善，面对即将迎来的"春季行情"，或可积极把 握。 揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）及其联接基金（017140）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、 黄金、稀土、锂等行业，相较投资单一金属行业，能够分散风险，适合作为投资组合的一部分进行配 置。数据显示，截至12月11日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.35亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指 数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。截至12月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.4亿元，在全 市场3只跟踪同标的指数的ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 每日经济新闻 12月17日午后，有色板块持续走强，有色龙头ETF（159876）涨逾3%。昨日，有色龙头ETF（159876） 单日吸金1013万元，近20日累计吸金1.98亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市行情，积极入场抢筹。 中信建投证券认为，只要美联储仍处 ...

Market Overview - On December 16, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced a pullback, with only about 50 out of over 1300 ETFs closing higher, and 6 of these ETFs rising by 1% or more. Financial technology, tourism, and automotive sector ETFs showed relative resilience [1] - In the cross-border ETF segment, two Brazilian ETFs and one S&P Consumer ETF led the market in terms of gains [1] ETF Performance - Notably, several ETFs that rose against the market trend saw significant increases in trading volume. The S&P Consumer ETF (159529) had a turnover rate of 199.92%, with a trading volume nearing 2 billion yuan, four times that of the previous day. The Smart Driving ETF (516520) also saw its trading volume increase to approximately seven times that of the previous day [2] - On December 16, financial technology, tourism, and automotive sector ETFs performed well, with multiple products ranking among the top gainers. The financial technology ETFs linked to the CSI Financial Technology Index saw over half of their constituent stocks close in the green, with notable gains from companies like Chuangshi Technology (300941) and Cuiwei Co. (603123) [4] Fund Flows - On December 15, despite the market pullback, ETFs experienced a net inflow of approximately 6.7 billion yuan, with broad-based ETFs attracting significant capital. Several ETFs linked to the CSI A500 Index ranked among the top for net inflows, with three A500 ETFs collectively receiving over 13.5 billion yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [3][9] - The A500 ETF from Southern Fund (159352) led with a net inflow of 3.915 billion yuan on December 15, significantly outpacing other products [11] Sector-Specific Insights - The gold stock ETFs faced a sharp decline on December 16, with the largest drop exceeding 4%. Six out of the top ten ETFs with the largest declines were gold-related, reflecting a cautious market sentiment ahead of key economic data releases [7] - The CSI A500 Index has over 280 public funds linked to it, with more than 80 asset management firms involved, totaling over 240 billion yuan in assets. Over 80% of this is held in ETF products, with 40 ETFs exceeding 210 billion yuan in total assets [10] Upcoming Products - On December 19, Huatai-PB Fund will launch the Sci-Tech Entrepreneurship Artificial Intelligence ETF, adding to the growing list of innovative ETF products in the market [13]

上周市场风格延续科技成长占优，周期与消费回调。AI相关的光模块/光芯片进一步走强，可控核聚变 与数据中心电力大涨，智能电网等绿电消纳相关热度提升，商业航天延续高热度；炭黑/磷化工/甲醇和 地产/家纺等表现落后。 国内方面，上周中央经济工作会议举行，中央提出做好新形势下经济工作的五点新的认识和体会，确定 了八项重点任务。会议明确"不断巩固拓展经济稳中向好势头"，并提出财政政策"更加积极"与"内需主 导"，"推动投资止跌回稳"，房地产"去库存"。中财办副主任表示将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策， 继续实施"国补"与靠前实施"十五五"重点项目，实现"十五五"良好开局。 从宏观数据来看，11月国内核心CPI同比维持高位，PPI同比降幅扩大；社融数据延续此前财政支撑走弱 和私人信用疲软的格局；出口动能修复但基数将升。具体来看： 11月CPI同比回升至0.7%，PPI同比回落至-2.2%，CPI主要受到食品、消费补贴政策及金价上涨推动， 国际油价下行对PPI价格形成压力，下游耐用品消费价格仍然偏弱。财政支撑走弱和私人信用疲软， M1-M2缺口在11月迅速扩大，但后续M1仍有边际企稳的可能。11月美元计价的中国出口增速5.9 ...

Core Insights - The year-end ranking battle among funds has intensified, with 67 funds achieving over 100% returns year-to-date as of December 12, 2023, including 57 active equity funds [2][3] - The leading fund, Yongying Technology Smart A, has a return rate of 218%, significantly ahead of the second-place fund by over 51 percentage points, making its victory nearly certain [4] - The performance of top funds is heavily influenced by investments in sectors like computing chips and optical modules, which are considered standard in their portfolios [2][4] Fund Performance - The top-performing fund, Yongying Technology Smart A, has a cumulative return of 218%, while the second-place fund, Zhonghang Opportunity Leading A, has a return of 166.65% [4] - The competition for rankings among mid-tier funds is fierce, with several funds like Hongtu Innovation Emerging Industry A and Xin'ao Performance Driven A achieving returns above 147% [4] - The top ten funds have a performance threshold set at 136.83%, indicating a narrow margin for ranking changes in the remaining trading days [4] Market Trends - The strong performance of active equity funds this year is attributed to a combination of technology, demand, and capital, with over 95% of active equity funds achieving positive returns [6] - The computing and optical module indices have seen significant increases, with year-to-date gains of 93.83% and 172.08%, respectively [5] - The focus on technology investments is expected to continue, with a shift towards performance verification rather than speculative themes [8][9] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the technology sector, particularly the optical communication industry, will remain a key component of investment strategies in the coming year, driven by explosive demand and supportive macro policies [2][8] - There is a consensus that the market will transition from speculative investments to a focus on the quality of earnings growth and sustainable business models [9] - Key areas for investment include AI applications, domestic replacements, and companies with strong technological barriers and commercialization capabilities [9]