Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Index Strategy - Short - term market做多动能 remains strong, liquidity is expected to stay loose, and capital is abundant. With rising market sentiment, incremental funds will support the market. Policy measures may boost confidence. The index has upward potential but may adjust through fluctuations [6]. - Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index may slow down and adjust. It may consolidate or rise gently rather than have a sharp correction [6]. - The strategy is to buy on dips [6]. Treasury Bond Strategy - The central bank's large - scale liquidity injection shows its intention to keep market liquidity reasonable. The divergence between short - and long - term interest rates may be due to the shift of funds from the bond market to the equity market. Track equity market trends, capital interest rate trends, and bond fund redemptions [8]. - Technically, the treasury bond futures remain in a bearish pattern with a downward trend and more potential downside [8]. - The strategy is to appropriately reduce the portfolio duration on dips [8]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Index Strategy - Last week, the A - share market continued to rise in volume and price, with most gains on Wednesday and Friday. All major indices rose, with the ChiNext, STAR Market, and the Beijing Stock Exchange leading. Trading volume increased, with daily average turnover of about... trillion yuan, up...% from the previous week. Core broad - based indices also had positive weekly performances [6]. - The short - term market has strong upward momentum, and the index has room to rise but may adjust through fluctuations [6]. - Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index may slow down and adjust, likely through consolidation or gentle rise [6]. - The strategy is to buy on dips [6]. Treasury Bond Strategy - Last week, the central bank net injected... billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations. This week, capital interest rates rose, and treasury bond yields generally increased [8]. - The central bank's actions show its intention to maintain liquidity. The divergence in short - and long - term interest rates may be due to funds flowing from bonds to equities. Track relevant factors to judge the sustainability of the interest rate adjustment [8]. - Technically, the treasury bond futures are bearish with a downward trend [8]. - The strategy is to reduce portfolio duration on dips [8]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than expected and seasonal trends. Supply and demand both weakened, with external demand falling more significantly on the demand side and production slowing on the supply side. Upstream industries improved, while downstream export - oriented industries were suppressed [13]. Inflation - In... month, CPI was flat year - on - year and up 0.4% month - on - month; PPI was down 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. There were positive changes in prices, but CPI and PPI year - on - year remained weak [16]. Industrial Added Value - The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in... month dropped to 5.7%, and the service production index growth rate fell to 5.8%. The decline was mainly due to the export - oriented industries such as automotive, electronics, textiles, and electrical machinery [19]. Fixed - Asset Investment - The estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in... month turned negative to - 5.2%. The growth rates of manufacturing, narrow - sense infrastructure, and real estate investment declined. The reasons were complex, including short - term factors like extreme weather and statistical methods, medium - term factors like export expectations and policies, and long - term factors like real estate investment [22]. Social Retail Sales - The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in... month fell to 3.7%, and that of above - quota retail sales fell to 2.8%. The slowdown was mainly reflected in weak catering growth, slower sales of state - subsidized products, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [25][26]. Social Financing - In... month, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were negative. At the end of the month, the stock of social financing increased 9.0% year - on - year, and M2 increased 8.8% year - on - year. Although credit was negative, social financing, M1, and M2 growth improved with fiscal support. The social financing growth rate may peak and decline in Q4. Policy may be adjusted according to the situation, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [29]. Imports and Exports - In... month, China's exports were 3217.8 billion US dollars, imports were 2235.4 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 982.4 billion US dollars. The performance was better than expected due to the "rush" behavior under the threat of US tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [32]. Weekly Focus - On... day at 09:00, China will announce the five - year and one - year loan prime rates (LPR). - On... day at 14:00, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. - On... day at 16:00, the eurozone will announce the preliminary manufacturing PMI for... month. - On... day at 21:45, the US will announce the preliminary Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for... month. - The China Computing Power Conference will be held from... day to... day in Datong, Shanxi Province [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Sideways with a downward bias [32] - US Dollar: Bearish [32] - US Stocks: Sideways with an upward bias [32] - A-Shares: Sideways [32] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways with a downward bias [32] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is centered around interest rate cut trading. Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium signals a possible September rate cut, but the medium - term rate cut space is limited due to the resilience of the US economy and rising inflation [6]. - The domestic market is in a data and policy vacuum. Although the macro - fundamentals have limited recovery, the stock market has deviated from fundamental pricing, and risk appetite is expected to remain high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The market speculated on interest rate cut trading this week. Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium emphasized the increasing downside risks in the employment market and the short - term nature of tariff - induced inflation, signaling a September rate cut. However, the medium - term rate cut space is restricted by the US economic resilience and rising inflation [6]. - The domestic market is in a data and policy vacuum. The stock market has deviated from fundamental pricing, and overseas liquidity easing signals are expected to support domestic risk appetite [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Most global stock markets rose this week. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 2%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.7%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.5%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.3%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index fell 2.3% [9][10]. - Most countries in the MSCI Global Index recorded gains. The expectation of interest rate cuts boosted global market risk appetite, with developed markets > global > frontier > emerging markets [10]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Markets - The US Dollar Index continued to decline, depreciating 0.12% to 97.7. Most currencies appreciated slightly against the US dollar. The RMB exchange - rate index remained unchanged, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated, and the off - shore RMB against the US dollar appreciated 0.25% [12][14]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - The yields of 10 - year government bonds in major countries fluctuated, with emerging markets seeing larger increases. In developed markets, the US Treasury yield fell 7bp to 4.26%, the Japanese government bond yield rose 4bp to 1.62%, and the German government bond yield fell 6bp. In emerging markets, the Chinese government bond yield rose 4bp to 1.78%, the Brazilian government bond yield rose 27bp, the Indian government bond yield rose 15bp, and the Vietnamese government bond yield rose 11bp [19][23]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market showed marginal improvement this week, with the spot index performing weakly. Crude oil rose 1% to $63.8 per barrel. The metal and precious - metal sectors were boosted by the expectation of interest rate cuts, with LME copper rising 0.37%, LME aluminum rising 0.73%, COMEX gold rising 1%, and silver rising 2.26%. The agricultural - product sector was strong, with soybeans and corn rising 1.5%. The domestic commodity market weakened, with rebar falling 2.2% and iron ore falling 0.8% [29]. 3.3 Asset Class Weekly Outlook 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, and the market has priced in a 25bp rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year. In the short term, gold prices will continue to trade in a range and lack the momentum to break through [33]. - The real interest rate has fallen to 1.85%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield has stopped falling and rebounded. The US Treasury yield curve is steepening, which suppresses gold prices. The US Dollar Index fell, the RMB rose, and Shanghai gold continued to trade at a discount [41]. - Comex gold futures' speculative net - long positions decreased slightly, and SPDR Gold ETF holdings flowed out slightly. Shanghai gold's positions declined, and its inventory increased. Silver rose slightly, outperforming gold, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 88 [46]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was extremely dovish, shifting the Fed's policy focus to unemployment. The market expects the Fed to accelerate rate cuts in September, and the US Dollar Index is expected to trend downward [48]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - At the beginning of the week, the technology sector corrected due to the expected hawkish stance of Powell. However, after his dovish speech on Friday, the market risk appetite recovered. The interest rate cut expectation is expected to support the US stock market to trade sideways with an upward bias in the near term. Attention should be paid to NVIDIA's earnings report and July PCE data next week [52]. - In terms of sectors, energy, real estate, finance, and materials rose more than 2%. Only the information technology and communication sectors fell. The Q2 earnings of US stocks were strong, with 81% of companies exceeding expectations, and the profit growth rate reached 11.6%. Institutional investors' positions increased, and the volatility index remained at a low level [63]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - This week, 30 out of 30 A - share industries in the CITIC primary - industry classification rose, with the communication industry leading the gain (+10.47%) and the real - estate industry lagging (+0.98%). The Shanghai Composite Index broke through historical highs, and the trading volume reached an average of 2.5 trillion yuan per day. The "bull - market expectation" has gained consensus, and the stock market is less sensitive to fundamental pressures in the short term [64][76]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Next week, the bond market is expected to trade sideways with a downward bias, as it is in a data and policy vacuum, and the bond market's performance will be dominated by the money - market and equity - market conditions. The central bank is committed to maintaining market liquidity, but the money - market may tighten marginally during tax - payment and month - end periods. The expectation of interest rate cuts is more favorable for the stock market [77]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The GDPNow model's estimate of Q3 GDP growth has fallen to 2.26%, and the year - on - year growth rate of Redbook retail sales has rebounded to 5.9%. The crude - oil price has rebounded slightly, and the market's inflation expectation has remained stable. The initial jobless claims reached 235,000, and the continued jobless claims fell to 1.972 million, indicating a weakening labor market [90][99]. - The bank's reserve balance remained at $3.3 trillion, the TGA account balance rebounded slightly to $526.1 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale rebounded to $36.3 billion. The market liquidity remained stable. The volatility index fell to a low for the year, and the corporate bond spread remained low. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased, and the market has priced in a rate cut in September and two rate cuts this year [106]. - In July, the US CPI rose slightly, with the core CPI rising 3.1% year - on - year. The PPI rose significantly, with the core PPI rising 3.7% year - on - year. Service inflation has rebounded, indicating strong core - inflation stickiness [113]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market remained weak, and the effectiveness of the policies proposed by the State Council to stabilize the real - estate market needs to be monitored [114]. - As of August 22, the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week rates were 1.48%, 1.47%, 1.42%, and 1.46% respectively, with changes of - 1.91bp, - 3.67bp, + 2.00bp, and - 0.20bp from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.13 trillion yuan, 1.02 trillion yuan less than last week, and the overnight - trading proportion was 87.75%, slightly lower than the previous week [130]. - In July, the economic data generally weakened, especially domestic demand. The private - sector's self - repair ability was insufficient, and the policy focus was on structural adjustment. The growth rate of fixed - asset investment from January to July was 1.6%, and the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value, social retail sales, and other indicators declined [131]. - In July, the financial data showed a divergence. The M1 and M2 growth rates exceeded market expectations, while the new - credit data was weak. The policy has started to support the demand side, but the effect may not be significant in the short term. The M1 growth rate is expected to peak in September [135]. - In July, the PPI was - 3.6% year - on - year, and the CPI was 0.0% year - on - year. The terminal demand remained weak, and the price increase of commodities due to the "anti - cut - throat competition" policy has not been transmitted to the downstream [150]. - In July, the export growth rate was 7.2%, and the import growth rate was 4.1%, both exceeding expectations. However, the sustainability of the export growth is questionable, and the import growth depends on the recovery of domestic demand [160].

Group 1 - The securities sector is experiencing significant activity, with the Securities ETF (159841) rising by 2.06% and achieving a trading volume exceeding 450 million yuan, indicating high trading activity and a turnover rate of over 7% [1] - As of August 22, the Securities ETF (159841) has a total size of 6.365 billion yuan, making it the largest ETF in the same category in the Shenzhen and Shanghai markets [1] - The Securities ETF (159841) has seen a net inflow of 280 million yuan over the past four trading days (August 19-22), reflecting strong investor interest [1] Group 2 - The non-bank team at CITIC Securities believes that the brokerage sector presents significant investment opportunities in the second half of the year, driven by strong half-year performance forecasts, deepening capital market reforms, and expectations of liquidity easing [2] - The active trading in the capital market, particularly in the second quarter, has benefited multiple brokerage businesses, leading to a high increase in net profits [2] - Huolong Securities indicates that sustained market activity is directly boosting brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, with a positive trend in net profit forecasts for brokerages and an expected further increase in ROE [2]

Group 1 - The core phenomenon of simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds is a rare occurrence, typically indicating a "seesaw" effect between these asset classes, but current liquidity easing signals have led to this unusual market behavior [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's policy shift, particularly the dovish signals from Chairman Powell regarding potential interest rate cuts, has significantly influenced global market liquidity expectations, leading to increased capital flows into emerging markets [2][3] - Historical precedents show that abundant liquidity is a crucial prerequisite for simultaneous gains in both stocks and bonds, as seen during the period from January 2019 to March 2020 in China [3][4] Group 2 - Today's market performance indicates a preference for growth sectors such as computer and communication industries, reflecting a focus on policy-supported areas and technological growth [4] - The bond market benefits from expectations of declining interest rates, attracting funds in a liquidity-rich environment, similar to the stock and bond bull market from September 2014 to June 2015 [4][5] - The simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds is a collective interpretation of the policy environment, suggesting a re-evaluation of emerging market assets in light of global capital flow changes [4][5] Group 3 - Overall, the simultaneous rise in stocks and bonds is a direct response to global liquidity easing expectations, driven by external policy signals and internal funding allocation needs [5] - Understanding the liquidity-driven market characteristics is more crucial for investors than focusing on individual indicators, as liquidity often dictates asset price movements [5]

值得注意的是，截至8月22日，券商ETF（159842）年内份额增长率达85.82%。 平安证券指出，证券行业近期市场景气度改善、交投活跃度维持高位，板块从估值到业绩均具备β属 性，全面受益。长期看资本市场新一轮改革周期开启，券商仍有较大发展增量空间。政府部门继续替代 企业与居民进行加杠杆，7月新增信贷创历史新低，政府债发行显著加快支撑社融、M1与M2增速继续 改善。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） 券商ETF（159842）跟踪中证全指证券公司指数。该指数选取中证全指样本股中至多50只证券公司行业 股票组成，以反映该行业股票的整体表现。 中信建投非银团队认为，基于良好的半年度业绩预告，叠加资本市场改革深化、流动性宽松及市场指数 中枢上移预期，券商板块下半年投资机遇凸显。从业务层面看，上半年尤其是二季度资本市场交投活 跃，券商经纪、两融、投行、自营投资等多项业务充分受益，推动净利润实现高增。 华龙证券表示，市场交投持续活跃直接拉动经纪与自营业务，上半年券商净利润预增趋势向好，ROE有 望进一步提升，政策红利深化打开增量空间，板块估值有望提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a significant N-shaped upward trend since September 24 of last year, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high of 3800 points as of August 22, driven by fundamental expectations, liquidity conditions, and market sentiment [1][2][8]. Group 1: Logic Behind the Current Bull Market - The first driver is the fundamental expectation difference, where initial pessimism regarding the impact of the trade war on the economy and inflation shifted positively after negotiations began in May and anti-involution policies were implemented in July [2]. - The second driver is the liquidity easing, with both China and the U.S. in a monetary easing cycle, leading to increased demand for equity allocation amid a low-interest-rate environment and a weak dollar [4]. - The third driver is market sentiment, with a momentum effect following the market's upward breakthrough in July, leading to a significant increase in margin financing [6]. Group 2: Trend Judgment on A-share Market - The current A-share market is influenced by three key factors: a liquidity surplus, neutral corporate earnings, and valuation levels. M1 growth is still rising, and the weighted interest rates in China and the U.S. are slightly favorable for A-shares [7]. - Corporate earnings are expected to have limited recovery space, with nominal economic growth in the second half of the year likely to be similar to the past two years [7]. - Despite the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a 10-year high, valuations are not considered expensive, with the price-to-earnings ratio at the 89th percentile and the price-to-book ratio at the 53rd percentile [7][8]. Group 3: Structural Trend Judgment on A-share Market - Since the announcement of anti-involution policies in July, market trading logic has shifted to coexistence of economic expectation recovery and abundant liquidity, leading to strong performance in small-cap and technology stocks, while dividend stocks like banks have underperformed [13][16]. - The current market trading logic has transitioned from a late economic slowdown phase to an economic expansion phase, characterized by strong performance in small-cap and technology stocks [16]. - In terms of structural allocation, dividend stocks can serve as a stable base, while technology and small-cap stocks can be considered for aggressive positioning, with relatively low-valued consumer stocks as auxiliary allocations to balance risk and return [17].

Group 1: Macro Insights - President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to effectively advance major projects such as the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the Sichuan-Tibet Railway, focusing on developing highland特色优势产业, particularly in clean energy and特色农牧业 [1] - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes indicated that only two officials supported a rate cut, with the majority favoring maintaining the current benchmark interest rate [4] Group 2: Industry Developments - Premier Li Qiang highlighted the importance of enhancing high-quality technological supply and policy support to promote the upgrade of the biopharmaceutical industry, aiming to develop more effective new drugs [2] - OpenAI's CFO announced that the company achieved a monthly revenue of over $1 billion for the first time and is considering an IPO in the future, while also exploring the potential to offer AI infrastructure services to other companies [3] Group 3: Market Trends - The vaccine industry is expected to benefit from a new policy in Guangxi that provides free HPV vaccinations for eligible girls, with a positive outlook on the sector driven by policy, demand, and technology [10] - The global AI smartphone penetration rate is projected to rise from 4% in 2023 to 40% by 2027, as major brands integrate AI capabilities into their devices [11] - The refrigerant industry is anticipated to maintain high profitability due to tightening supply-demand dynamics, especially with the upcoming reduction in second-generation refrigerant quotas [12] Group 4: Company Announcements - Muyuan Foods reported a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan for the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 1170% [14] - Weicai Technology achieved a net profit of 101 million yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 831% [14] - Hengrui Medicine plans to repurchase shares worth between 1 billion to 2 billion yuan [14] - Yonghui Supermarket reported a loss of 241 million yuan in the first half of the year, transitioning from profit to loss [14]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's emergency rate cut of 50 basis points has caused significant turbulence in global markets, with A-shares showing an independent trend amid the tug-of-war between "positive effects" and "recession concerns" [2] - Northbound capital saw a record net inflow in a single day, indicating strong investor interest [3] - Both gold stocks and technology stocks experienced rare simultaneous gains, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [3] - The Chinese yuan appreciated sharply by 800 points, showcasing currency market reactions to the Fed's decision [3] Group 2 - There is a contrast between the expectations of external demand recovery and the reality of weak domestic demand, highlighting a complex economic landscape [4] - The liquidity easing measures are juxtaposed with the risks of earnings downgrades, indicating potential challenges for companies [4] - The policy toolbox is being tested against the threshold of market confidence, suggesting that investor sentiment is crucial for future market movements [4] - Major funds are increasing their positions in consumer electronics, while speculative funds are targeting convertible bonds, indicating a shift in investment strategies [4] - Insurance funds are maintaining high dividend stocks, reflecting a preference for stable income amid market volatility [4] - This sudden change serves as both a stress test and an opportunity for value reassessment, necessitating a new cognitive framework for investors as the linkage between A-shares and global markets evolves [4]

文 | 财华社，作者 | 飞鱼 8月18日，三大指数继续走强，沪指大涨0.85%，报3728.03点，盘中一度触及3745.94点，创下近10年新高，市场情绪 为之振奋。 多位分析人士认为，在存款利率不断下调，权益资产吸引力不断上升的背景下，越来越多的资金从银行存款转向保 险、基金、股票等更高收益的领域。 前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙指出，过去五年，经济储蓄增加近60万亿元，累计达到160万亿元，而国有大行一 年期存款利率跌破1%。居民储蓄需要寻找好的出口来进行投资，资本市场的走强恰好吸引了居民储蓄向资本市场的 大转移。 今日创业板大涨2.84%，4月上旬以来累计涨超41%，早已进入技术性牛市的范畴。此外，堪称人气指标的北证50指 数大涨6.79%，创下历史新高。 指数加速上行，叠加成交量不断放大，赚钱效应十分明显，让不少老股民高呼牛市已至。 值得注意的是，近日券商股、金融科技股走强，长城证券（002939.SZ）、东方财富（300059.SZ）、同花顺 （300033.SZ）等接连大涨，无疑更增添了牛市的氛围。 种种迹象表明，投资者加速跑步入场，害怕错过这难得的投资机遇。关于后续市场行情如何演变，多家机构 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen significant activity, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high of 3745.94 points on August 18, driven by ample liquidity and increased participation from various investor groups [6][7][8]. Market Performance - The average return of active equity funds this year is approximately 19%, with 11 funds doubling their net value [10]. - The number of "doubling funds" has only appeared in specific market conditions in the past, indicating a strong performance this year [10]. Fund Flow and Investor Behavior - The market's upward trend is primarily supported by abundant liquidity, with margin financing exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reflecting increased trading activity [8]. - A notable "deposit migration" trend is observed, where residents' deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan in July, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.14 trillion yuan, suggesting a shift of savings into capital markets [8]. - Stock ETFs have seen a resurgence in trading volume, with significant daily transactions, including 1454.54 billion yuan on August 18 [8]. Institutional Participation - Foreign and insurance capital are becoming increasingly important, with foreign investment in Chinese assets rising and insurance companies increasing their stock investment ratio to 8.4% [9]. - The number of new institutional accounts has surged to historical highs, correlating positively with the issuance of equity funds [11]. Future Outlook - The influx of new capital into the A-share market is expected to continue, supported by high-interest deposits maturing and policies encouraging long-term investments from insurance and social security funds [12]. - The performance of listed companies is identified as a critical factor for long-term fund performance, with fund managers focusing on fundamental analysis and in-depth research [13][14]. - The market is anticipated to benefit from liquidity easing and declining interest rates, with a focus on sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industry [14].