美国劳动力市场的降温迹象同样引人关注。美国劳工部数据显示，持续领取失业救济金人数攀升至一百九十七点四万，创下二零二一年十一月以来的新高。 这一趋势与消费者信心指数的持续下滑相呼应，显示高物价和就业市场的不确定性正在抑制家庭支出意愿。 此次GDP终值下修主要归因于消费者支出和出口数据的向下调整。作为美国经济增长的核心驱动力，一季度个人消费支出仅增长百分之零点五，远低于去年 四季度的百分之四，创下二零二一年以来的最低增速。与此同时，进口激增百分之三十七点九导致净出口拖累GDP高达四点七个百分点，反映出企业为规避 未来关税上调而提前囤积库存的影响。 尽管进口数据的下修部分抵消了消费疲软的拖累，但美国整体经济仍呈现需求放缓的趋势。一季度美国国内需求增长率从初值的百分之三点零一路下调至百 分之一点九，联邦支出更是以百分之四点六的速度下滑，创下二零二二年以来的最大降幅。与此同时，核心PCE物价指数终值上修至百分之三点五，表明通 胀压力仍未缓解，进一步加剧了市场对"滞胀"风险的担忧。 美国商务部最新公布的数据显示，今年第一季度美国经济按年率计算萎缩百分之零点五，较此前预估的负百分之零点二进一步下调，这也是自二零二二年一 季 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 中东战争结束叠加特朗普拟提前公布下任联 储主席人选，市场全面转向 Risk On 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（6 月 23 日-6 月 27 日），有色板块本周上涨 5.11%，在全部一级行 业中排名靠前。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中能源金属板块上涨 7.21%，工业金属板块上涨 6.53%，小金属板块上涨 4.46%，贵金属板块下跌 1.48%， 金属新材料板块上涨 3.72%。工业金属方面，伊朗与以色列迅速达成停火协议，地 缘避险需求大幅降温，市场全面转向 risk on，风偏的上行以及降息的预期于本周大 幅推升工业金属价格。贵金属方面，地缘避险需求大幅降温，市场全面转向 risk on， 风偏的上行短暂压制黄金价格，我们认为市场并未充分计价美国经济步入滞胀的风 险，预计 7 月通胀上行速度将加快，黄金届时或迎来新一轮上升机会。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：长单 TC 持续回落，市场风偏上行叠加 LME 逼仓风险助推铜价上行。截至 6 月 27 日，伦铜报收 9,879 美 ...

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing rapid shifts in sentiment due to various driving factors, including geopolitical risks, unexpected policy announcements, and conflicting macroeconomic data [1][2] - Geopolitical events, such as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran facilitated by the U.S., have a direct and strong impact on market sentiment, leading to a significant drop in oil prices (over 11%) and a rise in U.S. stock markets [1] - Unexpected policy announcements, particularly from political figures like Trump regarding trade negotiations and sanctions, can quickly reverse market gains, highlighting the fragility of the current optimistic sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - The presence of contradictory macroeconomic signals, such as a decline in U.S. GDP alongside an increase in core PCE, indicates early signs of "stagflation," complicating market assessments of economic conditions [2] - The uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve policies is heightened by these macroeconomic indicators, potentially affecting market expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Upcoming bank stress test results, while routine, could amplify market vulnerabilities if negative surprises occur, especially following the banking turmoil of 2023 [2] Group 3 - The focus for the upcoming week will shift to key economic data, with the U.S. non-farm payroll report being crucial for assessing labor market health and its implications for economic growth and inflation [3] - The importance of the services PMI is emphasized, as the services sector is a major component of the U.S. economy, while global manufacturing challenges are indicated by China's PMI contraction [3] - European inflation and employment data will also play a significant role in shaping the European Central Bank's policy outlook [3] Group 4 - The upcoming holiday factors, such as Canada Day and U.S. Independence Day, are expected to reduce market liquidity, which could lead to more volatile market reactions to economic data and unexpected news [4] - In a low liquidity environment, even expected data releases may trigger more severe market movements, increasing the risk of "flash crashes" or "flash rallies" [4] Group 5 - The market is entering a critical period characterized by multiple intertwined uncertainties, including geopolitical risks, policy changes, conflicting macro data, and holiday liquidity [5] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant, focusing not only on the data results but also on their potential impacts on economic outlooks and policy expectations [5] - Effective risk management and flexible response strategies are essential in navigating this complex environment, as the market's next direction will largely depend on the evolution of these interacting forces [5]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the trade war will lead to stagflation tendencies in the second half of 2025, with global GDP growth expected to slow to an annualized rate of 1.4% and core inflation rising to 3.4% due to inflation driven by U.S. tariffs [2][3] - The commodity production sector is expected to be the first to feel the impact of economic slowdown, with global factory output and capital spending projected to contract [2] - Despite rising inflation in the U.S., lower-than-expected growth is likely to drive moderate deflation in other regions, with the Eurozone's core inflation rate expected to fall below 2% [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley assesses that the global GDP growth has an upward risk bias for the second half of 2025, driven by a positive evaluation of the private sector's health, a supportive financial environment, and expected fiscal policy easing [3] - The risk of a significant growth surprise is skewed to the downside, with a 40% probability of the U.S. entering a recession, driven by concerns over household purchasing power and low corporate sentiment [3] - The behavior of a still-healthy corporate sector, particularly avoiding layoffs, is crucial for maintaining U.S. economic expansion, although this may come at the cost of profit margin compression [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Boston Fed President Collins signals a personal inclination towards interest rate cuts later this year, but emphasizes high uncertainty in policy direction due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The current U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, and monetary policy is in a "good position," but future adjustments will heavily depend on data, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation [3][5]. - The cancellation of some extreme tariffs has alleviated some inflationary pressures, but the remaining tariffs' effects are not fully realized, with core PCE expected to remain "slightly above" 3% by year-end, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3][5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - As businesses complete inventory adjustments, tariffed goods are expected to gradually enter the supply chain, potentially leading to further inflation in the coming months [5]. - If price pressures persist, the Fed may need to delay rate cuts or reassess its policy path [5][8]. Fed's Internal Dynamics - The recent Fed meeting maintained interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range, with notable internal divisions on the timing of rate cuts. Some members advocate for easing as early as July, while others, including Powell, prefer a wait-and-see approach [5][8]. - Collins' stance is more centrist, neither ruling out the possibility of rate cuts this year nor dismissing the potential for policy shifts due to external shocks [5][8]. Market Expectations - Market analysis suggests that Collins' comments reinforce the Fed's "data-dependent" stance. If inflation rises again due to tariffs, the Fed may need to maintain high rates longer; conversely, signs of economic weakness could lead to earlier rate cuts [8]. - Currently, futures markets are betting on the earliest rate cut in September, but this expectation may fluctuate with policy uncertainties [8].

中东局势可能会使未来的降息复杂化，滞胀担忧加剧 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利警告称，随着石油油价大幅波动，中东动荡的事态发展给利率决策带来了更 多的复杂性。 贝利在上议院经济事务委员会发表讲话时强调，以色列和伊朗之间局势迅速变化的事件使货币政策特别 具有挑战性。 贝利称："目前情况非常不可预测，正如我们在过去24小时看到的那样，它很容易在一夜之间发生变 化。" 本周早些时候，在美国对伊朗核设施发动袭击后，油价飙升至每桶80美元以上，然后在唐纳德·特朗普 宣布停火后，油价暴跌至每桶70美元以下。 行长强调，油价波动给央行带来了问题，更高的能源成本会加剧通货膨胀，使降息更加成问题。 她强调，鉴于英国经济面临的持续不确定性，有必要对货币政策采取"谨慎和渐进的方法"。 摩根士丹利策略师警告称，如果油价在商业周期后期大幅飙升，中东紧张局势可能会引发央行对股市最 坏的情况。 贝利承认围绕全球发展的极端不确定性，并指出："到目前为止，我们已经看到油价形势在一夜之间出 现了很大转变。" 行长强调，预测这些事件的发展轨迹几乎是不可能的。他说："这一切的结局非常不可预测。" 他解释说，贸易冲突对英国通胀的影响仍然难以预测，更便宜的中 ...

阅读此文之前，请您点击一下"关注"，既方便您讨论和分享，又能给您带来不一样的参与感，感谢您的 支持 本文陈述所有内容，皆有可靠来源赘述在文章结尾。 伊以冲突停火，伊朗在这件事情上始终保持沉默，哈梅内伊对于此事没有发表任何看法，面对美以"重 启核计划就打击"的威胁，伊朗的态度始终让人捉摸不透。 特朗普和内塔尼亚胡 可是没想到的是，伊朗先是宣布重启核项目，后又称核设施受美军袭击严重受损，这样看伊朗是"服 软"了，因此特朗普顺势表示下周将与伊朗会谈，还暗示会放松对伊朗的制裁。 信息来源央视新闻 可局势急转直下，哈梅内伊突然接连强硬发声，直言"给美国一记耳光"，从沉默到强硬，从"服软"到反 击，特朗普态度为何转变，而伊朗强硬表态背后，又有着什么样的原因？ 特朗普的态度为什么转变 当冲突爆发时，导弹还没落地，国际油价就已经飙，而石油就像全球经济的命脉，它的价格波动直接影 响着所有人的生活成本。 图片来源网络 从加油站的汽油、超市的食品到工厂生产的商品，价格上涨最终都会转化为普通人的账单压力，也就是 通货膨胀。 对美国而言，通胀尤其棘手，因为它会侵蚀民众的购买力，引发不满情绪，而大选年的总统最怕这种局 面。 图片来源网络 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve should adopt a more cautious interest rate policy amid uncertain economic outlook, according to Richmond Fed President Barkin [1] - Barkin's views contrast with other Fed officials who suggest that the July policy meeting could be significant, potentially considering rate cuts if inflation continues to cool or the job market shows signs of weakness [1] - The Fed decided to maintain interest rates unchanged in the recent policy meeting, with median expectations indicating two rate cuts by year-end, although more officials believe only one cut may be necessary, or possibly none [1] Group 2 - Barkin expressed cautious optimism regarding current inflation data but highlighted new risks in the coming months, including rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions that could increase oil prices and impact business investment and hiring [1] - Concerns about potential "stagflation" pressures were raised, indicating a scenario where economic growth slows while inflation remains high, with businesses beginning to cut back on hiring and investment due to uncertainties [1] - Long-term structural changes in the labor market, such as reduced immigration and increased reliance on AI and automation, may complicate the Fed's efforts to manage the economy [2]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all up, with Dow futures rising by 0.28%, S&P 500 futures up by 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures increasing by 0.47% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX and the UK's FTSE 100 both up by 0.38%, while France's CAC40 is up by 0.17% [2][3] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 0.35% to $65.15 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose by 0.47% to $66.74 per barrel [3][4] Economic and Policy Insights - Reports indicate that former President Trump is considering early nominations for the next Federal Reserve Chair, expressing dissatisfaction with current Chair Powell's pace on interest rate cuts [4] - Analysts from JPMorgan warn that current trade policies could lead to stagflation in the US by 2025, with a 40% chance of recession in the second half of this year [7] - Apollo Global Management's chief economist predicts a critical turning point for the US economy, with GDP growth expected to slow to 1.2% and inflation potentially reaching 3% by year-end [9] Company-Specific Developments - Micron Technology reported a record Q4 revenue of $9.3 billion, a 37% year-over-year increase, driven by strong sales of DRAM chips [10] - Nvidia's CEO Huang Renxun forecasts that robotics, particularly humanoid robots, will become a significant growth driver for the company, alongside AI technologies [11] - Tesla's recent Robotaxi launch faced technical issues during public testing, raising concerns about the commercial viability of its autonomous driving technology [12] - Shell has stated it has no intention of acquiring BP, dispelling rumors of a merger between the two oil giants [13]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts copper prices may peak at $10,050 per ton by the end of 2025, with an average price adjustment to $9,890 for the second half of 2025 [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 40% chance of recession in the U.S. due to tariff-induced stagflation, lowering the GDP growth estimate for 2025 to 1.3% [2] - Morgan Stanley reports a decline in global demand for long-term assets, predicting 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to be 3.50% and 4.35% respectively by year-end [3] Group 2 - Barclays indicates mild selling pressure on the dollar by the end of June, while the euro shows weak signals for a significant rebound [4] - Mitsubishi UFJ suggests the Bank of England may slow its quantitative tightening pace, with potential announcements in September [5] - Bank of America states that since the announcement of tariffs, interest rate differentials are no longer the main driver of the dollar's movement, reflecting structural risks in the U.S. economy [6] Group 3 - French Foreign Trade Bank's survey shows that 41% of respondents view currency depreciation as the main risk of holding cash, with 38% preferring better returns elsewhere [7] - Westpac anticipates the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut rates in July, but emphasizes that this is not a certainty [8] - China International Capital Corporation notes potential recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a beta opportunity of 30%-50% if expectations improve [5][6]