市值破1.2万亿的招商银行股价站上2025年以来的新高。如何处理好股东回报、市值管理和风险控制等 难题？6月25日，在招商银行2024年度股东大会上，关于银行的宏观风险管理成为热点话题。记者注意 到，有股东代表提出，招商银行上市以来，有两次股价及市值的大幅下跌，第一次在2007-2008年期 间，受到2008年全球金融危机的影响，招行市值下跌了76%。第二次是2021-2022年末，市值下跌了 53%。回顾招行发展史，结合这两次市值大幅下跌的市场波动，值得管理层汲取的主要经验和教训是什 么？未来如何更好避免能否避免上述市值大幅下跌的情景？ 值得一提的是，早在2021年，王良曾和同事联合撰写《商业银行资产负债实践管理》。该书是在学习借 鉴国际先进商业银行资产负债管理理论和实践的基础上，对中国商业银行多年资产负债管理实践的总 结，也是对资产负债管理理论的探索。 该书提到，全球银行业成功的原因多种多样，但是导致失败的关键一点就是"风险管理的失控"。 回应"宏观风险管理"之问，王良认为，银行业是经营风险的行业，所以风险如影随形。中国银行业这些 年也在积极化解、处置中小银行风险。这反映出我国处置风险更加主动、更加积极， ...

证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 分红能力盘点：周期&公用篇 ——自由现金流资产系列 12 工业金属：25Q1 现金流比例 33%，具备较大股东回报提升空间 石化：25Q1 现金流比例 26%，盈利周期熨平、现金流稳定 港口： 25Q1 现金流比例 33%，市场或已充分认知其稳定现金创造能力 2）行业逻辑演变带来现金流改善：航运受益于近年来地缘事件频繁、运价 大波动的时代背景，农业则正发生开支周期转向平稳阶段的积极变化： 航运：25Q1 现金流比例 41%，地缘事件频繁、运价大波动时代 农业：25Q1 现金流比例 34%，开支周期进入平稳阶段 3）景气周期承压：虽然资本开支力度下降，但 EPS 压力较大，包括煤炭、 钢铁、建材、航空机场、地产： 煤炭：25Q1 现金流比例 25%，煤价下跌与开支高位持续矛盾 钢铁：25Q1 现金流比例 42%，去库影响显著 建材：25Q1 现金流比例 28%，股东回报提升空间有限 航空机场：25Q1 现金流比例 64%，盈利规模与疫情前接近 地产：25Q1 现金流阶段性修复，去库补充现金流 4）仍处高资本开支阶段：资本开支力度均在 2 以上，行业逻辑仍以扩张为 主，包括贵金属、能 ...

Group 1: Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment Projects - The company operates and is constructing water supply projects with a capacity of approximately 4.3 million tons per day and wastewater treatment projects exceeding 4.8 million tons per day, with most projects expected to be operational between 2025 and 2026 [2][3]. Group 2: Accounts Receivable Management - The company has seen an increase in accounts receivable due to expanded business operations, and it places a high priority on managing accounts receivable and actively pursuing collections [2]. Group 3: Waste Incineration Power Generation Projects - The Chengdu Wanxing Environmental Power Plant (Phase III) is under construction, with a waste processing capacity of 5,100 tons per day, sludge co-processing capacity of 800 tons per day, and kitchen waste processing capacity of 800 tons per day, expected to be operational in 2026 [3]. Group 4: Pricing Mechanism for Water Supply - The company can submit water price adjustment requests to the government price administration department based on national policies and relevant agreements, with adjustments subject to cost monitoring and public hearings [3]. Group 5: Future Capital Expenditure and Dividends - The company has significant capital expenditures due to multiple ongoing water supply and waste projects, which are expected to decrease as these projects become operational in the next 1-2 years. The company is focused on increasing cash dividend ratios and will consider further enhancing shareholder returns once major projects are operational [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a leading integrated energy company in China, with a focus on oil and gas exploration, refining, and chemical production [8][9] - The refining sector is experiencing weak market conditions, leading to short-term profit pressures [15] - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns through a structured value management plan and significant cash dividends [62] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a relative performance against the CSI 300 index, with a 17% fluctuation expected by mid-2025 [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3,074.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 50.3 billion yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [15][4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 735.4 billion yuan, a decline of 6.9% year-on-year, but a significant sequential increase of 3.9% [15] Business Segments - **Exploration and Development**: The company has made progress in increasing reserves and production, with a capital expenditure of 175 billion yuan in 2024, and a focus on high-quality exploration [19][21] - **Refining**: The refining segment is under pressure due to weak demand and narrowing price spreads, with a revenue of 1,481.5 billion yuan in 2024, down 3.2% year-on-year [43][44] - **Chemicals**: The chemical sector is facing a challenging supply-demand balance, with a revenue of 523.9 billion yuan in 2024, up 1.7% year-on-year, but a significant drop in profitability [50][52] - **Marketing and Distribution**: The company is transitioning to a comprehensive energy service provider, with a total sales volume of 239.3 million tons in 2024, a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year [55][59] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.286 yuan per share in 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 75% when including share buybacks [62][65] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in net profit from 51.1 billion yuan in 2025 to 62.9 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS growth [4][66]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Lexin (LX.US) has increased by 5.05% to $7.49, driven by strong Q1 2025 performance and positive market conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance - Lexin's stock rose by 5.05% to close at $7.49, with a trading volume of $12.4679 million [1] - After-hours trading saw a further increase of 0.4%, bringing the stock price to $7.519 [2] - The overall market was buoyed by a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, with major indices rising over 1% [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Lexin's Q1 2025 financial report showed total revenue of 3.1 billion yuan, with a GAAP net profit of 430 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 18.6% and a year-on-year growth of 113.4% [3] - The company's take rate reached 1.58%, up from 1.31% in Q4 2024 and 0.66% in Q1 2024, indicating improved profitability [3] - Net profit margin increased from 9.9% in Q4 2024 to 13.9%, marking the highest level in three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Returns and Analyst Ratings - Lexin announced an increase in its dividend payout ratio from 25% to 30% of net profit starting in the second half of the year [3] - Several major brokerages, including DBS and UBS, have raised their target prices for Lexin, with DBS estimating a fair value of $11 based on a projected P/E ratio of 6 times for FY 2025 [3] - The stock has previously fallen over 30% due to trade tensions, but analysts believe the current price does not fully reflect its growth potential [4] Group 4: Company Background - Lexin was established in August 2013 and is based in Shenzhen, China, focusing on connecting young consumers with new brands through its platforms [4] - The company went public on NASDAQ in December 2017 [4]

Group 1: Impact of External Factors - The company's business has been affected by frequent adjustments in tariff policies, but its diversified sales market and customer structure provide strong resilience against trade dispute risks [2] - The company has been actively building overseas production bases, allowing for greater flexibility in responding to tariff changes [2][3] - Exchange rate fluctuations primarily impact the company's import and export trade, with USD being the main currency for transactions [3] Group 2: Financial Strategies and Shareholder Returns - The company emphasizes shareholder returns and plans to continue providing stable and sustainable returns to investors [3] - The company is focused on enhancing its supply chain services and aims to strengthen its core business capabilities for sustainable development [4] Group 3: Operational Challenges and Talent Management - The main bottleneck for the company's development is the lack of talent, particularly those with international operational capabilities [3] - The company has established various employee incentive mechanisms, including performance-based compensation and employee stock ownership plans [4] Group 4: Innovation and Design - The Guotai Innovation Design Center is being developed in Shanghai, which will support recruitment and innovation activities [3] - The company has established marketing and design centers in key international markets to enhance customer service and increase trade value [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported total revenues of $1.5 billion and diluted earnings per share of $1.5 for the second quarter, exceeding delivery expectations due to improved build times [9][32] - Gross margin was 19.7%, excluding inventory-related charges, which was above guidance [9][33] - Book value per share increased to nearly $59, reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase [9][42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated 3,460 net orders in the second quarter, with a monthly absorption pace of 4.5 net orders per community, down from 5.5 in the previous year [10][19] - Average selling price increased to approximately $489,000 year-over-year, despite mixed performance across regions [32] - Homebuilding revenues decreased by 10% from the prior year, totaling $1.52 billion [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The housing market outlook remains favorable long-term, driven by demographics and an undersupply of homes, but short-term consumer confidence is low due to affordability challenges and high mortgage rates [7][8] - The company experienced a decline in net orders in April and May, which did not follow the typical spring trajectory [10][18] - Active communities increased by 2% year-over-year, contributing to a backlog of 4,776 homes valued at $2.3 billion [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on optimizing assets to generate higher returns by balancing pace and price on a community-by-community basis [11][12] - A shift back to a built-to-order model is planned, aiming to enhance customer choice and satisfaction [13][14] - The company is scaling back land-related investments to align with current market conditions while maintaining a healthy lot pipeline for future growth [28][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the need to adjust guidance for fiscal 2025 due to softer market conditions and net order results [14][35] - The company is committed to managing costs and improving build times, with a goal of achieving a 120-day build time [21][22] - Management expressed confidence in navigating current market conditions and supporting affordability for buyers [25][30] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $200 million of shares in the second quarter, with plans to continue repurchases in the third quarter [6][29] - Total liquidity at quarter-end was $1.2 billion, including $309 million in cash [40][41] - The company has returned over $1.59 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases over the past four years [42][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: What steps are being taken to reduce SG&A costs? - Management is adjusting headcount to align with new revenue projections and exploring various cost-saving measures [45][46][47] Question: What are the drivers behind the gross margin outlook? - The reduction in gross margin is attributed to operating leverage, land costs, and regional mix, with some offset from lower construction costs [48][49][50] Question: How will backlog turnover and absorption be managed? - Management aims for high backlog turnover ratios and expects to cover inventory through sales, similar to previous years [56][58][59] Question: What impact did community delays have on order pace? - Delays in community openings likely resulted in missing a couple hundred sales, affecting overall order pace [62][63] Question: How is the company addressing land inflation and pricing? - Management noted that land inflation is influenced by various factors, including entitlement and improvement costs, and is monitoring market conditions for potential relief [97][98]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying investment opportunities with strong certainty in the current volatile macroeconomic environment, highlighting the significance of risk management and predictable earnings for listed companies [1]. Group 1: Investment Attractiveness of Chow Tai Fook Enterprises - Chow Tai Fook Enterprises has shown a strong stock performance, achieving a five-year consecutive annual increase, with notable annual gains of 65% in the previous year and over 30% in both 2021 and 2023 [1][2]. Group 2: Independent Shareholding Structure - The company underwent a significant restructuring in late 2023, completely isolating its shareholding from New World Development, thus eliminating concerns about potential risks from the real estate sector [3]. - Chow Tai Fook Enterprises operates independently from other business platforms under Chow Tai Fook Group, ensuring compliance with listing requirements and preventing internal profit transfer risks [3][4]. Group 3: Diversified Business Operations - The company has five core business segments: toll roads, insurance, logistics, construction, and facilities management, which exhibit strong anti-cyclical characteristics [6]. - For the first half of the fiscal year 2025, the company reported an operating profit of HKD 2.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 1.16 billion, up 15% [6]. Group 4: Financial Stability - Chow Tai Fook Enterprises maintains a robust financial position, with liquid assets totaling approximately HKD 30 billion and cash reserves of about HKD 18.6 billion, against only HKD 2.3 billion in debt due within a year [7]. - The company's net debt ratio stands at around 39%, indicating a healthy financial status relative to its assets and equity [7][8]. Group 5: Shareholder Returns - The company has a strong track record of returning value to shareholders, having paid dividends for 22 consecutive years, demonstrating its profitability and financial stability [9]. - For the first half of fiscal year 2025, Chow Tai Fook Enterprises maintained an interim ordinary dividend of HKD 0.3 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.3 per share, resulting in a trailing twelve-month dividend yield of 12.87% [10][11].

老百姓大药房连锁股份有限公司 股票代码：603883 二〇二五年六月 目 录 担保的议案 议案 老百姓大药房连锁股份有限公司 股东大会会议须知 一、会议按照法律、法规、有关规定和《公司章程》的规定进行，请参会人 员自觉维护会议秩序，防止不当行为影响其他股东合法权益。 二、为能及时、准确地统计出席会议的股东（股东代理人）所代表的持股总 数，登记确认出席股东大会的各位股东或其代理人参会资格，各位股东及股东代 理人在股东大会参会登记日（2025 年 6 月 26 日-27 日）须先通过信函、电子邮 件方式登记。 三、参会股东及股东代理人须携带身份证明文件（身份证、营业执照等）及 相关授权文件办理现场会议登记手续及有关事宜。未能提供有效证明文件并办理 登记的，不得参加现场表决和发言。除出席本次会议的公司股东、董事、监事、 高级管理人员、公司聘请的见证律师、相关工作人员以及董事会邀请的人员外， 公司有权依法拒绝其他人员进入会场。 四、本次大会谢绝股东及股东代理人个人录音、拍照及录像，对扰乱会议的 正常秩序和会议议程、侵犯公司和其他股东及股东代理人的合法权益的行为，会 议工作人员有权予以制止，并及时报有关部门处理。 五、 ...

Group 1 - The company held a performance and cash dividend briefing for the fiscal year 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 on June 20, 2025, via the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center [1][2] - The event included participation from key executives, including the financial director and independent directors, who engaged with investors through an interactive online format [2] - The company emphasized its focus on core business areas, including fresh produce services, frozen food operations, and edible oil trading, aiming for sustainable growth and enhanced market competitiveness [2][3] Group 2 - The company has developed a three-year shareholder return plan (2025-2027) that outlines cash dividend standards and ratios to protect the rights of minority investors [2][3] - The company is in the process of optimizing its equity structure through a proposed change in control, which requires compliance confirmation from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [3] - The company is committed to improving operational quality and achieving stable growth in its main business, with plans for potential mid-term dividends subject to board approval [2][3]