转自：新华财经 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)$ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 8月22日 | 8月29日 | 变动BP | | 0 | 1.2711 | 1.2 | -7.11 | | 0.08 | 1. 3211 | 1. 2536 | -6. 75 | | 0. 17 | 1.35 | 1. 3508 | 0.08 | | 0. 25 | 1. 3507 | 1. 3513 | 0. 06 | | 0.5 | 1.3799 | 1. 3582 | -2. 17 | | 0. 75 | 1.3746 | 1. 3546 | -2 | | 1 | 1.3707 | 1. 3698 | -0.09 | | 2 | 1. 4341 | 1. 4042 | -2.99 | | 3 | 1.5064 | 1. 4776 | -2.88 | | 0 | 1.6324 | 1.6322 | -0. 02 | | 7 | 1.7525 | 1.732 | -2.05 | | 10 | 1. 7818 | 1. 8379 | 5.61 | | 1 5 | 1.9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of the bond market is nearing its end, and it is likely to shift from a volatile to a stronger state in September. The short - term bonds may maintain excellent performance due to the continuous loose capital situation, while the long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may see a downward space as the upward slope of the equity market slows down. The interest rate may show a "moderate downward trend" [2][77][78] - The current investment strategy remains cautiously optimistic. The upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield in this adjustment is estimated to be between 1.80% - 1.85%. In the short term, the idea of "shortening the portfolio duration + preferentially allocating old bonds" may improve the portfolio's winning rate [2][78] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Important Matters - From January to July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and the operating income increased by 2.3% year - on - year. State - owned enterprises were the main drag, while private and foreign - invested enterprises showed better profit repair [5] - The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank adjusted the pricing mechanism of commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai, no longer distinguishing between first - and second - home mortgages [6] - Trump announced the removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and the legal outcome will affect the balance between the president's power over the Fed board and the central bank's independence [7] 3.2 Money Market 3.2.1 Open Market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From August 25 to 29, 2025, the central bank's net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase was 196.1 billion yuan. From September 1 to 5, 2025, 227.31 billion yuan of basic currency is expected to mature and be withdrawn [10] - After the tax payment and government bond payment peaks, with the central bank's care for liquidity, the inter - bank liquidity has become looser. As of August 29, 2025, compared with August 22, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 changed by - 2.82BP, 3.32BP, - 8.27BP, and 4.89BP respectively [14] 3.2.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market, commercial bank certificates of deposit continued to be in a net financing state, with a net financing scale of - 194.66 billion yuan last week. As of the 35th week of 2025, the cumulative issuance scale of certificates of deposit for the whole year has reached 22.58 trillion yuan [19] - The issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit increased last week. The average issuance interest rates of 3 - month and 1 - year certificates of deposit for state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed to varying degrees compared with the previous week [22] - In the secondary market, most maturity certificate of deposit yields declined, and the 1Y - 3M term spread widened further [25] 3.3 Bond Market 3.3.1 Primary Market - From January to August, the net financing rhythm of local government bonds was faster than that of national bonds. As of August 29, 2025, the cumulative net financing scale of various national bonds was about 4.67 trillion yuan, and that of local bonds was about 5.75 trillion yuan [28] - Last week, national bonds were not issued, and the issuance scale of local bonds and policy - financial bonds was basically the same as the previous week. The net financing amount of interest - rate bonds was 56.268 billion yuan [27][31] - As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 had reached 1.94 trillion yuan, mainly in long - and ultra - long - term maturities [34] 3.3.2 Secondary Market - The stock - bond "see - saw" effect reappeared last week. The long - term interest rate was at a disadvantage, and the curve steepness increased. The 10 - year Treasury bond's second - most active bond switched to 250016, and the 10 - year CDB bond completed the bond replacement [27][37][42] - The 10 - 1 - year Treasury bond term spread widened to 46.81BP, and the 30 - 1 - year Treasury bond term spread widened to 76.77BP [44] - The 10 - year local bond - 10 - year Treasury bond yield spread and the 30 - year local bond - 30 - year Treasury bond yield spread both narrowed [49] 3.4 Institution Behavior Tracking - The scale of leveraged trading decreased last week, with a weekly average of about 7.07 trillion yuan. Funds, insurance, and securities firms were the main buyers in the bond market, while rural commercial banks were net sellers [50][57][62] - The main trading desks' current average cost of adding positions in 10 - year Treasury bonds is above 1.74% [63] - Commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local bonds [70] 3.5 High - Frequency Data Tracking - Last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 1.39% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained unchanged, the settlement price of cathode copper futures increased by 0.62%, the cement price index decreased by 0.74%, and the South China Glass Index increased by 0.77% [72] - The CCFI index decreased by 1.58% week - on - week, and the BDI index increased by 4.17% week - on - week [72] - The wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 2.07% week - on - week [72] - The settlement prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.58% and 0.55% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.10 [72] 3.6 Market Outlook - The bond market may strengthen in September. The short - term bonds will benefit from the loose capital, and the long - term bonds may see a downward space as the equity market's upward slope slows down. The interest rate may show a moderate downward trend [77][78] - The current investment strategy is to shorten the portfolio duration and preferentially allocate old bonds, and specific trading varieties can consider 250011 and 2500002 [78]

Economic Indicators - In August, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, indicating a continued expansion in the economic climate [1] Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a seminar on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market, emphasizing the need for high-quality planning and implementation of the capital market to consolidate the recovery trend and enhance market attractiveness and inclusiveness [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to strengthen, influenced by market concerns over President Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of a potential interest rate cut in September [2][18] - The U.S. inflation data showed a rebound, and geopolitical risks have eased, which may limit the upward movement of gold prices [18] Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the domestic market showed a significant increase in financing balance, indicating a potential for continued market recovery supported by loose liquidity and favorable policies [3][10] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [10] Commodity Insights - The double coke futures showed weak performance, with a slight decrease in coking coal positions and stable iron water production, indicating resilient demand despite seasonal pressures [4][25] - The iron ore market remains supported by strong demand, although global shipments have recently decreased, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance in the medium term [23] Fund Holdings - As of the end of June, the Central Huijin Investment Co. and its subsidiaries held a total of 1.28 trillion yuan in stock ETFs, marking an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of the previous year [7]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing low returns and high volatility, increasing the demand for tactical trading and selection skills. Investors are advised to focus on the spread compression opportunity of the new 30-year government bond [3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Observations - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect has shown signs of desensitization, with stock and bond movements transitioning from "one rises while the other falls" to "synchronous fluctuations" [5][6]. - Institutional behavior has become more rational, with redemption pressures on fixed-income products not significantly worsening, indicating limited room for trading positions to reduce [6][7]. - Market logic is returning to fundamentals and policy expectations, with the central bank's liquidity support alleviating market sentiment [7]. Group 2: Equity Market Trends - The equity market remains in a trend-up phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a "volume-based consolidation" rather than a "volume-declining downturn" [14][17]. - Short-term price pullbacks in a trend-up phase are often triggered by emotional disturbances or profit-taking, but core drivers such as policy expectations and liquidity remain unchanged [17]. - The current market structure indicates a rotation of funds between sectors, with low-valuation sectors like brokerage and real estate adjusting while growth sectors like solar and semiconductors remain active [17]. Group 3: 30-Year Government Bond Opportunities - The characteristics of bond asset returns have changed, with excess returns now relying on tactical trading strategies such as betting on rebounds and the convergence of new and old bond spreads [19][20]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on the spread compression opportunity of the new 30-year government bond, as its yield is currently at 2.135%, with a spread of 11.7 basis points compared to the active bond [20][21]. - As the new 30-year government bond gradually becomes an active bond, liquidity premiums are expected to rise, potentially leading to a "spread elimination" scenario [21].

Investment Highlights - The report identifies four phases of the A-share bull market: initiation (broad-based rally, policy support, and undervaluation), consolidation (differentiation, value blue chips), main rise (uptrend, technology growth + strategic themes), and peak (breakthrough, speculative bubbles + consumption) [4] - With macroeconomic conditions improving in July, including a rebound in M1, narrowing M2-M1 spread, and PPI bottoming out, there has been a significant influx of resident deposits into the market, supporting the main rise of A-shares [4][10] Phase Analysis 1. Preventive Savings and Bond Market Dominance - From August 2022 to August 2024, the bond market has been favored while A-shares experienced a downward trend due to economic weakness and low PPI and M1 [5][13] - The report notes a shift in resident behavior towards preventive savings, with a significant increase in prepayment of loans and a decline in market liquidity [25][27] 2. Normalization of Savings and Balance Between Stocks and Bonds - From September 2024 to June 2025, the report anticipates trading opportunities in bonds while A-shares will experience volatility as the economy stabilizes [40][41] - The normalization of savings is driven by low interest rates and an asset shortage, leading to a gradual recovery in risk appetite among residents [60][61] 3. Resident Deposits Entering the Market and A-share Main Rise - Since July 2025, the report highlights a shift towards equities while bonds adjust, with a notable increase in resident deposits entering the A-share market [73][74] - The correlation between M1 growth and A-share performance is emphasized, indicating that as M1 increases, so does the A-share index [75][77] Policy Environment - The report outlines a combination of monetary easing, fiscal support, and real estate policy adjustments aimed at stabilizing the economy and boosting market confidence [24][47] - Key policy measures include multiple rounds of interest rate cuts and adjustments to housing loan policies to stimulate the real estate market [23][51] Asset Performance - The bond market has shown a configuration advantage, with a shift towards bond-like assets such as REITs and high-dividend bank stocks as investors seek defensive positions [32][64] - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently favoring a "barbell strategy," with strong performance in both high-dividend sectors and growth-oriented stocks [71][72]

国债期货日报 | 2025-08-29 股债跷跷板效应强烈，国债期货全线收跌 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-08-28 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Standing at the end of August and looking forward to September, investors are confused about the general direction of the bond market. The bullish sentiment has decreased, and operations have become more prudent. The capital market and the equity market are the core concerns of investors, and the preference for local bonds, high - grade urban investment bonds, and perpetual bonds has marginally weakened [1]. - Four mainstream expectations for the September bond market: concentrated expectations for the upper and lower limits of long - term treasury bond yields; decreased bullish sentiment in the bond market, more cautious operations, and an upward - moving interest rate oscillation center; changed overall expectations for the August economy, with increased expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts; consistent preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and increased preference for convertible bonds [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Investor Expectations are Divergent and Behavior is More Prudent - **Survey Overview**: A bond market questionnaire was released on August 26, 2025, and 114 valid questionnaires were received by August 28, covering various institutional and individual investors [9]. - **Long - term Treasury Bond Yield Expectations** - **10 - year Treasury Bonds**: 85% of investors think the lower limit of the 10 - year treasury bond yield is likely to be in the 1.65% - 1.75% range, and 51% think the upper limit is likely to be in the 1.80% - 1.85% range. Investors' expectations for an increase in the 10 - year treasury bond interest rate are gradually rising [11]. - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: 41% of investors think the lower limit of the 30 - year treasury bond yield is likely to be in the 1.90% - 1.95% range, and 44% think the upper limit is likely to be in the 2.05% - 2.10% range. Investors are cautious about the potential further increase in the 30 - year treasury bond yield [13]. - **Economic Outlook for August**: Investor responses were relatively evenly distributed. 29% think the economy in August will show a "both year - on - year and month - on - month weakening" performance. Pessimistic expectations have decreased from 31% to 29% [15][17]. - **Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts**: 42% of investors think there will be no further reserve requirement ratio cuts this year, and 46% think there will be no interest rate cuts. Most investors tend to postpone potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to a more distant policy window [20]. - **Impact of the Equity Market on the Bond Market**: 70% of investors think the recent strengthening of the equity market will strengthen the stock - bond seesaw effect and suppress the bond market. However, some investors think the impact is short - term [24]. - **September Bond Market Outlook**: Investor expectations for the bond market are divergent. The proportions of investors expecting the bond market to "strengthen overall with a bull - flattened yield curve" and "weaken overall with a bear - steepened yield curve" are both 23%. The preference for the short - end has also decreased [25]. - **Bond Market Operations**: In September, most investors are neutral in practice. Holding cash and waiting is the mainstream view, with a marginal increase in the proportion of investors maintaining positions and taking profits [28]. - **Preferred Bond Types**: In August, investors maintained their positions in medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and increased their preference for convertible bonds. The preference for local bonds, high - grade urban investment bonds, and perpetual bonds decreased slightly [30]. - **Main Bond Pricing Logic**: Monetary policy, capital market conditions, and the performance of the equity market are the core concerns of bond investors. This month, the attention to the equity market has increased significantly, while the attention to institutional behavior games and fiscal policy has decreased [32].

Market Overview - The A-share Shanghai Composite Index has continuously risen since the second half of 2025, surpassing 3,800 points and reaching a ten-year high, with the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeding 100 trillion yuan [1] - The bond market has seen long-term government bond yields rise after a prolonged bull market, leading to adjustments in long-term bonds and putting pressure on bond fund net values, with over 600 bond funds experiencing losses this year [1] Commodity Market - The commodity market is exhibiting a volatile trend of sharp rises and falls under the expectations of anti-involution policies [2] Investment Insights - In the context of rising market sentiment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, key questions for Q4 2025 include whether the A-share bull market can continue, which asset classes are worth focusing on, and the impact of anti-involution policies on commodity prices [3][10] - Notable speakers for the Alpha online closed-door private sessions include influential analysts such as Guo Jin Securities' Chief Strategist, who will discuss the potential new cycle of the A-share bull market and which assets are most worthy of attention [3][5] Expert Contributions - Xu Xiaoqing, Chief Economist at Dunhe Asset Management, will share insights on macro trends and asset allocation strategies for Q4 2025, leveraging his extensive experience in fixed income research [7][9] - The sessions will include interactive Q&A segments, allowing participants to engage directly with the experts on topics of interest [4][8]

股债调整，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：7月政治局会议明确提出要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，依法依 规治理企业无序竞争，积极稳妥化解地方政府债务风险，严禁新增隐性债务等一些列政策指引；2025年8月1日， 财政部与税务总局发布公告称，自2025年8月8日起，对在该日及以后新发行的国债、地方政府债券和金融债券的 利息收入将恢复征收增值税。此前已发行的上述债券（包括8月8日后续发行的部分）仍享受免征增值税政策，直 至到期。（2）通胀：7月CPI同比持平。 资金面：（3）财政：2025年7月金融数据显示，M1、M2同比增速分别回升至5.6%和8.8%，剪刀差收窄至3.2%，表 明流动性充裕、企业活期资金活跃度提升，但信贷派生效率偏弱，居民与企业中长期贷款持续收缩，投资和消费 需求不足。社融存量同比仅9%，结构上主要依赖政府债券发行加杠杆托底，企业中长期融资需求依然低迷，大量 资金流向非银机构。利率品市场呈现政府债供给显著增加、机构被动增配的格局，后续走势取决于实体融资需求 修复及财政发行节奏。（4）央行：2025-08-27，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了379 ...

Core Viewpoint - The total scale of public funds in China reached a historical high of 35.08 trillion yuan by the end of July 2025, marking the tenth consecutive record since early 2024 [4]. Fund Market Overview - In July, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices rose, leading to significant net value increases in equity products, including stock and mixed funds. The QDII funds also saw growth in both share and net value due to the rise in Hong Kong and US stocks [3][7]. - The "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds was evident, with over 48 billion yuan leaving bond funds as investors shifted to equity markets or "fixed income plus" products [3][8]. Fund Category Performance - The total scale of public funds increased by 130.14 billion yuan in July, with significant contributions from various fund types: - Money market funds grew by over 380 billion yuan, becoming the main driver of growth. - Stock funds increased by over 190 billion yuan, while mixed funds rose by over 130 billion yuan. - Bond funds, however, saw a decline of over 48 billion yuan [5][6]. Equity Fund Dynamics - The A-share market's recovery led to a notable increase in equity fund scales. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.74%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 5.2% in July. Despite a decrease in total shares for stock and mixed funds, their net values increased, resulting in a combined scale growth of over 300 billion yuan [7]. - QDII funds experienced a 3.87% increase in total shares and a 6.77% rise in net value, driven by strong market performance in both Hong Kong and the US [7]. Bond Market Challenges - The bond market faced significant outflows as investors redeemed pure bond products in favor of equity or "fixed income plus" options. This trend was exacerbated by a tightening liquidity environment and a decrease in bond fund net values, with approximately 60% of bond funds experiencing declines in July [8][9]. - The bond market's previous "crowded trade" risk, characterized by a prolonged bull market, has made it sensitive to negative signals, leading to increased volatility and adjustments in bond fund performance [9].