1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Looking ahead to 2026, the steel sector still faces a significant oversupply situation. The downstream consumption structure of steel has changed significantly, with stable growth in manufacturing and exports offsetting the loss of steel used in real estate. Direct exports form the lower - edge support for black prices and also strongly suppress the upper price limit. Steel prices will fluctuate mainly in a low - level range. Whether policies such as crude steel production control can be implemented will be the most core factor affecting steel prices. Attention should be paid to steel cost support, tariff policies, and production control policies [1][7][11]. - In 2025, the price trend of black varieties showed a "V" shape. Coke and coking coal were weak, with a maximum mid - year decline of about 25%. By the end of the year, coking coal rose 10% and coke returned to the年初 price level. Rebar and iron ore were relatively strong, with a maximum mid - year decline of only about 8%. By the end of the year, rebar prices fell about 5% compared to the beginning of the year, and iron ore prices rose about 3% [8][17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Steel Market Operation Review - The price trend of black varieties in 2025 showed a "V" shape. In the first stage, due to the relaxation of safety supervision in coal - producing areas, coal supply recovered rapidly, suppressing carbon element prices and driving down steel prices. In the second stage, macro - policy expectations improved, coal supply contracted, and black commodities rose. Steel prices were restricted by export profits during the rebound [17][20][26]. 3.2 2026 Supply Analysis 3.2.1 Capacity Replacement Suspended, Policy Disturbance Limited - Since August 23, 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has suspended the publicity and announcement of new steel capacity replacement plans. In 2025, there was no new capacity replacement publicity. The steel industry maintained good production profits in 2025, and steel mills lacked the willingness to cut production actively. Local governments faced strong employment and fiscal pressure, so the policy - driven force for mandatory production cuts was insufficient. It is expected that the impact of policy on steel production capacity changes in 2026 will still be limited [29][30]. 3.2.2 Overseas Steel Supply Situation - It is estimated that the global crude steel output in 2025 will be 1.97 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.0%, and overseas crude steel output will be 836 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year slight increase of 0.4%. In 2026, global crude steel output is expected to be 1.995 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.2%, and overseas global crude steel output will be 845 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.0% [9][33][34]. 3.3 2026 Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supported by "Trading Price for Volume", Exports Remain High - Since 2011, when domestic steel enterprises' profits are under pressure, they have relieved domestic supply pressure through exports. In 2025, domestic steel prices were low but still maintained good production profits. Exports effectively resolved the domestic oversupply pressure through the "trading price for volume" effect. In 2026, although exports face anti - dumping pressure, domestic steel has strong price competitiveness. It is expected that domestic steel net exports will increase by about 10 million tons, but attention should be paid to the impact of intensified trade protectionism [41][44][52]. 3.3.2 Driven by Macroeconomic Policies, Manufacturing Demand Increases Steadily - Since the decline of the real estate industry, the steel demand structure has changed significantly. Manufacturing steel demand and exports have increased rapidly, offsetting the loss of steel used in real estate. In 2025, the manufacturing industry was generally weak. However, the automotive manufacturing industry maintained positive year - on - year growth. It is expected that in 2026, manufacturing demand will remain high with the support of policies to boost consumption and trade - in programs [53][55][61]. 3.3.3 Infrastructure Demand Remains Stable, Pay Attention to Fiscal Situation - In 2025, infrastructure investment growth declined. The power sector led by central funds was relatively strong, while sectors related to local funds were weak. To ensure a good economic situation in the beginning year of the "15th Five - Year Plan", it is expected that fiscal policies in 2026 will be stable and progressive, and the quota of new special bonds may be further increased, but the increase in steel used in infrastructure may be limited [63][65][66]. 3.3.4 The Real Estate Industry Has Little Increment, Building Materials Remain Weak and Stable - In 2025, real estate development investment and new construction area decreased significantly year - on - year. The real estate industry's driving effect on steel consumption continued to decline. It is expected that in 2026, the weak demand pattern of building materials will be difficult to reverse, which will continue to drag down steel demand [76][77][87]. 3.4 2026 Steel Supply - Demand Deduction and Market Outlook - Supply: It is expected that the overall supply in 2026 will be abundant, with an estimated increase of 1.4% in crude steel output, about 16 million tons. The impact of policies on steel production capacity changes will still be limited [84]. - Demand: It is expected that manufacturing demand will remain high, infrastructure may have an increase but with limited space, and the real estate sector will remain weak. It is estimated that domestic crude steel consumption will increase by 0.1% year - on - year in 2026, an increase of 650,000 tons [84]. - Net Exports: It is expected that domestic steel and billet net exports will increase by about 10 million tons in 2026, but attention should be paid to the impact of trade protectionism [85]. 3.5 Summary - The price trend of black varieties in 2025 showed a "V" shape. Coke and coking coal were weak, while rebar and iron ore were relatively strong [8][17][86]. - The supply - demand contradiction of domestic steel is not prominent. It is expected that the impact of policies on steel production capacity changes in 2026 will still be limited [9][30][86]. - In 2026, exports may increase, manufacturing demand will remain high, infrastructure investment may increase, and the real estate sector will remain weak. The steel sector still faces an oversupply situation, and steel prices will fluctuate in a low - level range [11][87][88].

Core Insights - The essence of trade is questioned, focusing on what China truly desires to import from the world in the foreseeable future [1][3] - The dialogue reveals the underlying tensions in global trade, particularly regarding the distribution of benefits [3][4] - China's shift towards self-sufficiency is driven by a strategic need to reduce dependency on external supply chains, especially in light of geopolitical tensions [10][12] Group 1: China's Economic Strategy - China is moving away from being a mere consumer to becoming a developer within the global supply chain [12] - The country aims for comprehensive self-sufficiency across industries, driven by a sense of insecurity regarding external dependencies [10][12] - This shift is expected to have significant repercussions on European economies, particularly Germany, which may see a 0.3 percentage point reduction in growth due to China's domestic substitution efforts [14] Group 2: European Response and Challenges - Europe faces a dilemma: either reform its foundational production chains or resort to trade protectionism [20][22] - The "difficult option" involves deep reforms to adapt to China's competitive manufacturing landscape, which is politically challenging for European societies accustomed to high welfare [22][24] - The "bad option" of protectionism could lead to a breakdown in global trade relations, as both sides may resort to tariffs and sanctions [26][30] Group 3: Diverging Development Paths - The current situation highlights a historical divergence in development paths between China and Europe, with China prioritizing manufacturing and technology over consumerism [30][32] - China's focus on enhancing technological independence and industrial security is deemed more critical than increasing imports from Europe [32][34] - The inability of Europe to adapt to this new competitive landscape may lead to a closed-off and confrontational approach, reflecting the collapse of the old global division of labor [34]

欧盟的如意算盘打得不可谓不精明，但美国却完全不买账。美国商务部长卢特尼克与贸易代表格里尔在会晤中，对欧盟的"效忠"姿态毫无兴趣，而是直接抛 出了核心诉求：要求欧盟重新审视其《数字市场法》和《数字服务法》，在执行过程中充分考虑美国科技企业的利益。卢特尼克甚至许下空头支票，声称只 要欧盟拿出"平衡"的数字监管体系，就能吸引高达1万亿美元的投资。这一幕让欧盟代表团措手不及，欧盟委员会负责贸易的谢夫乔维奇会后坦言，他从未 预料到美国会将数字规则与钢铝关税如此紧密地捆绑在一起。 欧盟的困境在于，数字监管法规是其在国际舞台上赖以生存的重要资本。欧盟技术专员维尔库宁早已明确表示，这些法规将会坚定不移地实施，绝不放松。 近期，欧盟正是依据这些法规对亚马逊和微软启动了反垄断调查，此前还曾对谷歌处以高达29.5亿欧元的天价罚单。如果为了换取美国的关税让步而妥协， 不仅会严重损害欧盟的监管权威，还会破坏其内部市场的公平竞争。这种进退两难的境地，使得欧盟27国的"中国牌"显得格外苍白无力——既想讨好美国， 又不愿放弃自身的核心利益，最终只能将第三方的利益作为赌注。 更令欧洲各国始料未及的是，特朗普的"献礼"来得如此之快。美欧谈判结束 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government has announced the removal of tariffs on certain food and import goods from Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador, aiming to enhance market access for U.S. businesses in Latin America and Central America [1][3] - The framework agreement is expected to be signed soon, with negotiations for other agreements anticipated to conclude by the end of the year [1][3] - The response from the governments of the four countries has been overwhelmingly positive, as the tariff removal is expected to boost their export trade and deepen economic ties with the U.S. [3] Economic Implications - The tariff removal is seen as a significant opportunity for countries like Ecuador, where the banana industry could see a substantial increase in sales due to reduced costs for entering the U.S. market [3] - The U.S. aims to lower domestic prices for products like coffee and bananas, addressing the cost of living pressures faced by American consumers [5][7] - The move aligns with the Trump administration's focus on affordability and improving public perception following recent electoral losses [7][9] Political Context - The tariff reduction reflects a strategy to balance economic interests with political objectives, as the administration seeks to enhance support among voters by addressing everyday consumer concerns [9][11] - The effectiveness of these trade policy adjustments in delivering immediate benefits to the public remains uncertain, especially with the upcoming elections [11]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war has highlighted the United States' dependency on China for critical resources, particularly in the rare earth and pharmaceutical sectors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Rare Earth Industry - A rare earth processing center in South Carolina has successfully produced its first domestic rare earth magnet, which has been interpreted by the media as a sign of a manufacturing revival in the U.S. [1] - Despite this achievement, the U.S. remains heavily reliant on China for both rare earth materials and pharmaceutical raw materials [1]. Group 2: Pharmaceutical Supply Chain - The pharmaceutical supply chain is identified as a crucial leverage point for China in U.S.-China negotiations, with China holding a dominant position in the global pharmaceutical market [3]. - As of the latest data, China accounts for 45% of global drug ingredient registrations, significantly outpacing India's 19% [3]. - China is the sole supplier of approximately 700 key drug core chemical components, indicating its deep integration into the global healthcare system [3]. Group 3: U.S. Political Response - U.S. political figures have reacted strongly, with calls for collaboration with allies like India to establish alternative supply chains to reduce dependency on China [4]. - The U.S. has previously imposed high tariffs on medical equipment and patented drugs from China, which could increase healthcare costs for American citizens [4]. Group 4: Innovation in Chinese Pharmaceutical Industry - China's pharmaceutical industry has transitioned from follower innovation to original innovation, enhancing its influence in new drug development and clinical trials [6]. - Efforts to decouple from China's pharmaceutical supply chain are deemed increasingly unrealistic, as even India, the largest generic drug producer, relies on Chinese raw materials [6]. - The globalized nature of supply chains makes it nearly impossible for the U.S. to achieve supply chain security through protectionist measures [6].

前言 2016年，局座张召忠的一个军事预言引发热议："若特朗普执政八年，将是首个把美国经济从世界老大带入老二的总统"。 如今，美国对外关系委员会高级研究员杜如松，称中国已具备与美国平起平坐的能力。 那么，特朗普真的是美国滑落的罪魁祸首？中国的赶超又仅仅是靠对手的神操作吗？ 38万亿美债压顶，美国正在窒息 预言正在实现，前白宫国安委中国事务主任杜如松直接在《纽约时报》上发文，将中国与美国平起平坐的原因归咎于特朗普。 事实上在美国经济下滑这件事情上，特朗普是"主要功臣"，2025年4月特朗普推出的"对等关税"政策一落地，美国老百姓最先遭罪。 关税不是只针对中国，欧盟、日本这些多年的贸易伙伴也一样被加税，进口商品的成本上去了，商场超市里的东西跟着就涨价，企业的日子更不好过。 像苹果、特斯拉这些大公司，零件本来就来自全世界，关税一涨成本也上去了不说，政策还变来变去，生产成本根本没个准数，企业压根没法做长远规划。 更麻烦的是美元也出问题了，根据公开数据，特朗普执政以来美元已经贬值超过11%。 2025年上半年最深的时候跌了12%，以前美元是避险的硬通货，如今美元的信誉明显打了折扣。 最关键的是特朗普喊着"美国优先"搞单 ...

Core Points - The EU is seeking to negotiate with the US to lift the 50% tariffs on steel products in exchange for a united front against China, but the US has firmly rejected this proposal [1][4][5] - The EU's steel industry is significantly impacted by these tariffs, as countries like Germany, France, and Italy rely heavily on steel exports to the US [1][4] - The US is leveraging the steel tariffs to pressure the EU into making concessions in other areas, such as digital tax regulations, which the EU has implemented to protect its own market from US tech giants [4][5] Summary by Sections EU's Position - The EU believes that aligning with the US on China-related issues could improve relations and create conditions for tariff reductions [4] - The EU's proposal for a united front against China was met with a refusal from the US, which indicated that no concessions would be made regarding steel and aluminum tariffs [4][5] US's Strategy - The US is using the steel tariffs as a tool to compel the EU to compromise on digital tax and other trade issues, highlighting an imbalance in the US-EU relationship [5][7] - The US's insistence on maintaining tariffs while seeking cooperation on China reflects a strategy to protect its own economic interests and maintain global dominance [5][7] Implications for Global Trade - The ongoing trade tensions and the US's protectionist measures pose significant risks to global supply chains and economic stability [7] - The situation illustrates the complexities of international relations, where alliances may be tested by competing national interests, as seen in the EU's struggle to gain concessions from the US [7]

美国与中国之间的贸易战，如今又多了一项新景象：药品供应链的"暗战"。这条看似不为人知的供应链，不仅是关乎国民健康的生命线，更是两国战略角力 中的一个重要筹码。 根据最新的数据，中国在药物成分备案中占据了45%的市场份额，远超印度的19%。这一趋势并非偶然，而是经过数十年的发展，中国的制药工业已经完成 了从"跟随式创新"到"首创式创新"的华丽转身。这意味着，中国不仅在制造上占据优势，甚至在新药研发及临床试验方面都具备了强大的话语权。 美方智库已然意识到，试图与中国"脱钩"的想法显得不切实际。在追求供应链安全的同时，美国却需要特别警惕"恶人先告状"的现实。所谓的替代方案，比 如与印度合作，严重依赖中国资源的现状并没有得到根本改善。这样的供应链布局，注定不会容易破解。 面对这一复杂的局势，中国并没有简单地将药品视为一枚可利用的棋子，反而表现出了高度的责任感。官方多次强调，药品关乎人类健康，绝不应成为地缘 政治的工具。而在稀土出口时，中国还特别设立了人道主义豁免条款。这一系列做法，无疑显示出中国在全球医疗和制药领域的建设性作用，以及希望维护 供应链稳定的决心。 值得注意的是，中国作为近700种关键药物核心化学成分的唯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent US-EU trade negotiations highlight the complexities and strategic maneuvering in international trade, particularly in the context of US-China relations, with the EU attempting to leverage cooperation against China to negotiate tariff reductions on steel products, but facing firm resistance from the US [1][4]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU's trade commissioner proposed a joint approach to counter China in exchange for the US lifting high tariffs on 50% of EU steel products, but the US firmly rejected this offer [1]. - The US has expanded its list of steel products subject to high tariffs, citing the need to curb Chinese steel transshipment, despite the fact that only 3.2% of EU steel exports to the US are involved in such trade [4]. - The US's steel imports from Mexico surged by 27% during the same period, indicating a potential circumvention of tariffs through third countries [4]. Group 2: EU's Position and Strategy - The EU's attempt to use the "China card" to gain concessions from the US is seen as a significant miscalculation, as the US instead pushed for the EU to relax its digital tax regulations [4][6]. - The EU's low-profile approach in negotiations, hoping to gain favor with the US, has resulted in a lack of tangible benefits, raising questions about its diplomatic strategy [6][8]. - French President Macron's call for Europe to take on more responsibility, such as military support for Ukraine, was met with a lackluster response from the US, highlighting the EU's diminished influence in international affairs [6]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The EU needs to reassess its foreign policy, particularly towards the US, to protect its fundamental interests and establish a firmer stance in international trade [9]. - Strengthening cooperation with other countries is essential for the EU to enhance its bargaining power on the global stage [9]. - A clear strategic vision and unwavering execution will be crucial for the EU to regain its standing in international relations [9].

Group 1 - The prediction made by Zhang Zhaojun in 2016 about Trump potentially being the first president to lower the US economy from the top position is being validated by recent statements from former officials [1][3] - Trump's policies, particularly the "reciprocal tariff" policy, have led to increased costs for American consumers and businesses, affecting the overall economy [6][10] - The depreciation of the US dollar by over 11% since Trump's presidency has diminished its status as a safe-haven currency, impacting economic stability [8] Group 2 - The US economy's issues were already present before Trump, but his administration acted as an accelerator for these problems, with national debt surpassing $38 trillion by 2025 [16][18] - The trend of "deindustrialization" in the US has been ongoing for decades, with significant shifts in manufacturing jobs and economic structure [19][23] - Trump's trade protectionism has become a systemic risk, adversely affecting domestic consumption and production, contributing to economic decline [25] Group 3 - China's economic rise is characterized by sustained growth in manufacturing, with the country holding the top position globally for 15 consecutive years [27] - Significant investments in research and development have allowed China to break through technological barriers in critical sectors [29] - China's comprehensive industrial chain and infrastructure development have enhanced its economic efficiency and resilience against external pressures [31][33] Group 4 - China's approach to open cooperation and resource integration contrasts with the protectionist policies of other nations, showcasing a forward-looking strategy [35] - The economic surpassing of China over the US is seen as an inevitable outcome of current global trends towards multipolarity [37]