Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [5][22]. Core Views - The agricultural chemical industry is currently at a low point, and the company's performance is under short-term pressure. However, the company is expected to gradually strengthen its advantages in the industrial chain [1][10]. - The company is focusing on continuous investment in project construction, which is anticipated to enhance its market competitiveness [14][11]. - The potential acquisition of Shandong Huimeng is expected to further expand the company's industrial chain, enhancing overall competitiveness [12][14]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company's revenue is projected to be 73.11 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.87% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.15 billion yuan, down 64.34% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's revenue for 2025 is estimated to recover slightly to 74.67 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.04 billion yuan, reflecting an 87.4% year-on-year increase [13][14]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities for 2024 is expected to be 313 million yuan, a decline of 66.70% year-on-year [4][15]. Sales and Market Performance - In 2024, the company's sales volume for agricultural raw materials is expected to be 59,300 tons, an increase of 7.72% year-on-year, while the sales volume for agricultural formulations is projected to be 70,000 tons, up 16.14% year-on-year [3][2]. - Despite the increase in sales volume, the company's revenue and profit are under pressure due to declining prices for both raw materials and formulations [3][2]. Cost and Expense Analysis - The company's selling expenses are expected to rise by 16.79% year-on-year, with a selling expense ratio of 1.88% [3]. - Management expenses are projected to decrease by 19.45% year-on-year, while financial expenses are expected to increase significantly by 105.28% [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 11.1% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027, with net profit growth of 26.4% and 26.8% respectively [14][13]. - The report suggests that the agricultural chemical industry is likely to recover as market inventory is digested and outdated production capacity is eliminated, benefiting leading companies with abundant registration resources [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing a recovery in expansion projects after a downturn in 2024, with a total planned investment exceeding 340 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025 [4][13]. Industry Expansion - In the first four months of 2025, there are 123 planned expansion projects in the lithium battery industry chain, with a total investment of over 340 billion yuan [4]. - The expansion projects include 35 for lithium batteries and 23 for lithium battery recycling, accounting for 28.5% and 18.7% of the total planned projects, respectively [4]. Project Delays and Cancellations - There are 12 projects that have been delayed, terminated, or scaled down, primarily in the lithium battery recycling, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and lithium iron phosphate sectors [7][10]. - Notable companies involved in these projects include XINWANDA, Rongbai Technology, and Huayou Cobalt, with significant projects such as XINWANDA's 30 GWh power battery production base being terminated, which had a planned investment of 12 billion yuan [7][10]. Market Environment and Policy Impact - The main reasons for project delays and terminations include changes in market conditions, significant declines in lithium material prices, and increased competition leading to lower expected returns [10]. - Policy changes, such as the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's guidelines aimed at promoting orderly capacity reduction and encouraging technological innovation, are also influencing project viability [10]. Future Investment Outlook - The overall planned investment for the lithium battery industry in 2025 is expected to exceed 900 billion yuan, driven by high-end expansions and the clearing of low-end capacities [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - Hengyi Petrochemical reported a total operating revenue of 125.463 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 234 million yuan for 2024, with Q1 2025 showing an operating revenue of 27.168 billion yuan and a net profit of 51.4948 million yuan [1] Group 1: Business Segments - The company's main business segments include refining, PTA, and polyester [1] - The refining segment benefits from the Brunei refining project, which targets Southeast Asia and Australia, where there is a significant demand for refined oil products [1][2] - Southeast Asia is the largest net importer of refined oil globally, with a GDP growth rate significantly higher than the global average, indicating strong potential for oil demand growth [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The supply side of the Southeast Asian refined oil market faces a significant gap, with over 30 million tons of refining capacity exiting the market from 2020 to 2023 due to public health events and energy transition [2] - By 2026, the supply-demand gap for refined oil in Southeast Asia is expected to expand to 68 million tons, driven by the closure of refineries and declining production [2][3] Group 3: Strategic Opportunities - The limited growth in refining capacity due to aging facilities and stringent global environmental policies presents strategic opportunities for companies with technological advantages [3] - Hengyi Petrochemical is focusing on major strategic projects, including the Guangxi Qinzhou project and the second phase of the Brunei refining project, which are expected to enhance profitability as the petrochemical industry recovers [3][4] Group 4: Project Developments - The Qinzhou project is a key integrated production base for the company, expected to be operational by 2025, which will strengthen the company's performance and enhance its integrated supply chain advantages [4] - The project aims to leverage existing customer networks and cost reductions to increase market share [4]

若计划得以实施，6家企业将连同光伏行业协会，针对硅料采 取"限产限价"措施，以助力硅料价格尽快回归到合理水平。 作者： 潘俊田 封图：图虫创意 5月13日，市场传言称通威股份、协鑫科技、大全能源、新特能源、东方希望和亚洲硅业六家企业 拟通过成立基金的方式，收购其余企业硅料产能，进而实现产能出清。 但即便在低开工率下，多晶硅库存仍然在上升。2024年6月至10月，多晶硅库存从30万吨下降到25 万吨左右，此后又回升至30万吨左右，目前多晶硅库存量约25万吨。 其主要原因是下游硅片产量大减，导致市场对硅料需求相应减少。2024年上半年，硅片厂商大多 执行满产策略，硅片产量保持在60GW—70GW/月左右，而每月电池片产量大约保持在50GW，累 库严重。2024年下半年开始，以TCL中环为首的硅片生产商大幅缩减产量，2024年10月份硅片产 量甚至降至43GW/月的低点，硅片逐步实现去库存。 综合相关报道，这6家硅料企业将牵头成立规模为700亿元的大基金，用于并购整合6家以外的硅料 产能。若计划得以实施，6家企业将连同光伏行业协会，针对硅料采取"限产限价"措施，以助力硅 料价格尽快回归到合理水平。 5月14日，其中 ...

Group 1 - The integration and capacity clearance in the polysilicon industry are expected to accelerate, with six leading companies planning to establish a fund for mergers and acquisitions to clear excess capacity [1][2] - The polysilicon industry has experienced rapid growth from 2021 to 2023, but a mismatch in supply and demand has led to a significant drop in prices, resulting in nearly 19 billion yuan in losses for major companies [2][5] - A proposed fund of 70 billion yuan aims to acquire and integrate polysilicon production capacities outside the six participating companies, as part of a strategy to address the current market challenges [2][3] Group 2 - The industry consensus is shifting towards capacity control, with most polysilicon producers operating at reduced capacity due to ongoing price declines and significant losses [4][5] - The average transaction price for N-type granular silicon has decreased by 2.7% to 36,000 yuan per ton, reflecting the downward trend in the photovoltaic supply chain [4] - Companies are expected to adjust their production plans, with a projected reduction in domestic polysilicon output to approximately 96,000 tons in May, a decrease of about 3% [4]

上个月举办的协鑫科技业绩说明会上，协鑫科技联席CEO兰天石表示，目前的多晶硅产量"不够生产配 额"。 5月13日，市场传言称通威股份（600438）、协鑫科技、大全能源、新特能源、东方希望和亚洲硅业六 家企业拟通过成立基金的方式，收购其余企业硅料产能，进而实现产能出清。 综合相关报道，这6家硅料企业将牵头成立规模为700亿元的大基金，用于并购整合6家以外的硅料产 能。若计划得以实施，6家企业将连同光伏行业协会，针对硅料采取"限产限价"措施，以助力硅料价格 尽快回归到合理水平。 5月14日，其中一名参与过相关讨论的主要负责人向记者确认，该传闻为真，但仍处于"非常早期"的状 态。 从2024年上半年开始，硅料价格一直处于下跌态势。尽管历经企业自主减产、行业协会限价、产量配额 等各种措施，多晶硅仍处于供过于求的状态。目前国内多晶硅产能约324.7万吨，约能供应1500GW光伏 组件产能，但2024年全年光伏组件产量约600GW。 库存压力仍大 以目前多晶硅的库存量来看，去库压力仍然较大，且本身大部分产能已经停产。去年年中，硅料价格跌 破成本线之后，硅料企业开始主动降低产能。比如，拥有30.5万吨产能的大全能源从三季 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese dairy farming industry is undergoing a significant transformation after three years of bottom adjustment, with a notable decline in raw milk production expected in 2024, marking the first decrease since 2018. The industry is focusing on increasing milk yield per cow and eliminating low-yield cows to enhance profitability and efficiency [1][2]. Industry Adjustment - In 2024, China's raw milk production is projected to be 40.79 million tons, a 2.8% decrease year-on-year, with a clear acceleration in capacity clearance [2] - The number of dairy cows in the top 10 producing provinces has decreased by 6.7% as of the first three quarters of 2024, with an estimated 12 million dairy cows eliminated from the industry [2] - The number of large-scale dairy farms is expected to drop from 4,600 in 2022 to 3,700 by the end of 2024 due to ongoing losses and cash flow issues [2] Financial Performance of Companies - Companies like Junhua Agriculture have faced continuous losses, leading to risk warnings and potential delisting due to negative net assets [3] - Other companies, such as Woyue Mufeng, have exited the New Third Board due to ongoing financial struggles, while Xialing Muyu has not recovered from losses post-restructuring [3] - Knight Dairy, the first dairy company listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, reported its first loss in ten years in 2024, facing criticism for not timely disclosing performance forecast corrections [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average price of raw milk has decreased from 4.4 yuan/kg in August 2021 to 3.1 yuan/kg by December 2024, reflecting a persistent supply-demand imbalance [6][7] - In 2024, the average price of raw milk in major producing provinces was 3.32 yuan/kg, down 13.5% year-on-year [6] - The reliance on imported dairy products has decreased, with imports dropping by 9.5% in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of decline [7] Industry Outlook - The industry is expected to see a turning point in the second half of 2024 as milk prices stabilize and cost-reduction measures take effect, with companies reporting improved operating metrics [9] - Modern Dairy's EBITDA for 2024 is projected at 2.986 billion yuan, a 19.6% increase year-on-year, while Yuran Dairy's EBITDA is expected to rise by 38.3% [9] - The Ministry of Agriculture anticipates a better supply-demand balance in 2025, with potential improvements in milk prices and a reduction in production capacity [10]

5月13日收盘，*ST沐邦（603398）股价连续第七个交易日跌停。在行业下行周期，*ST沐邦的遭遇正是 跨界光伏企业普遍难逃"裸泳者"命运的一个缩影。时针拨回至三年前，借着行业热潮，一批上市公司纷 纷切入光伏赛道，这些公司一度成为资本市场的宠儿。 记者注意到，2024年年报披露后，已有多家跨界光伏上市公司被实施退市风险警示或其他风险警示，持 续经营能力受到质疑。与此同时，多家跨界企业正筹划将光伏业务打包出售，从亏损泥潭中脱身。 在受访人士看来，跨界光伏上市公司集体退潮有利于行业健康发展轨道，但需要警惕的是，这些企业的 光伏资产多数被地方国资或第三方接盘，并没有真正从行业退出。因此，需要有较为强硬的政策来协助 行业实现供给侧改革，进一步推动落后产能和企业出清。 样板 对于*ST绿康（002868）而言，4月底的短短10天时间里，公司经历了巨大转折，三年前向光伏胶膜产 业跨界的举动，还是如周期律一般带来反噬。 4月21日晚间，*ST绿康公告，为配合会计师事务所审计工作进度，原定于4月28日披露《2024年年度报 告》和《2025年第一季度报告》均调整为4月29日披露。 然而，4月22日早盘，*ST绿康毫无征兆地 ...

责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 若上游硅料挺价，将对下游组件价格产生什么影响？某光伏组件龙头企业人士告诉中国证券报记者，若 上游硅料企业率先减产挺价，价格向下传导，组件可能会因此涨价，有利于行业整体复苏。不过，从开 工率状况来看，现阶段依靠上游调节价格的力量有限。光伏行业现阶段的核心问题是供需错配叠加终端 市场增量不及预期。若要改变光伏行业增收不增利的情况，还需要积极发挥市场优胜劣汰的调节机制， 加速落后产能出清才能逐渐回归供需平衡。 中信建投证券研报认为，从2024年年报及2025年一季报情况来看，光伏行业盈利能力明显回落，光伏行 业报表端底部已经出现，四季度大量固定资产减值以及一季度东南亚双反影响已体现至报表，预计盈利 能力进一步恶化概率较小。从产能端来看，行业扩产意愿受低盈利影响已明显下降，固定资产增速预计 未来一年将大幅回落，但存量产能仍明显高于需求。研报认为，后续需要重点关注上游去库以及产能出 清进度。目前电池环节仍存在一定技术迭代，现金紧张的企业后续无法进行TOPCon改造升级或者BC产 能建设，无法进行升级的TOPCon产能会逐步难以获取订单，并被淘汰出市场，从而实现电池环节的产 能出清。 5月1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the steel sector, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [4]. Core Insights - The steel sector experienced a slight increase in 2024, with a notable recovery in Q1 2025 driven by supply restrictions and macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [1][9]. - The profitability of the steel sector improved in Q1 2025, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit for general steel and a substantial recovery in profit margins [2][17]. - The report highlights a potential new round of capacity reduction in the steel industry due to ongoing overcapacity and losses, with government policies likely to enforce stricter production controls [3][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Sector Performance - In 2024, the steel sector saw a modest increase of 6.56%, ranking 25th among industries, while Q1 2025 showed a stronger performance with a 10.24% increase, ranking 5th [1][11]. - The profitability of the general steel sector turned positive in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year net profit increase of 549.88% [17][19]. 2. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for construction steel stabilized at the bottom, while manufacturing steel maintained resilience, supported by increased infrastructure investment and a gradual recovery in the real estate market [2][37]. - The report notes that the supply side is facing stricter production controls, with the potential for a new round of capacity reduction due to significant overcapacity in the industry [3][45]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the general steel sector, such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel, as well as companies with flexible production capacity like Liugang and Shandong Steel [3][4]. - For the special steel sector, companies with strong performance in downstream industries like automotive and wind energy are recommended, including Xianglou New Materials and Guanda Special Materials [3][4]. 4. Financial Performance - The steel sector's total revenue in 2024 decreased by 9.47%, but Q1 2025 showed a recovery with a significant increase in net profit [17][19]. - The gross profit margin for the steel sector improved to 6.60% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in profitability [19][20]. 5. Institutional Holdings - Institutional holdings in the steel sector increased in Q1 2025, reflecting a recovery in profitability and improved market conditions [2][27]. - The report indicates a rise in the proportion of institutional investment in the steel sector, reaching 0.42% in Q1 2025 [27][28].