Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a strong rebound last week, recovering most of the previous week's losses, with bullish sentiment re-emerging and prices stabilizing above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating a positive outlook for future price increases [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold prices opened the week at $4,346.46 per ounce, reached a low of $4,344.06, and then surged above the $4,400 mark, ultimately hitting a weekly high of $4,516.88 before closing at $4,509.95. The weekly price fluctuation was $172.82, with a closing increase of $181.6, representing a 4.18% rise compared to the previous week's closing price of $4,328.35 [3][5]. Influencing Factors - The rise in gold prices was influenced by geopolitical risks in Venezuela, despite some resistance from the CME Group's third margin increase for precious metal futures and market expectations of negative non-farm payroll data. Additionally, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and calls for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve contributed to the bullish sentiment [3][5]. - Central banks in Asia have continued to increase their gold holdings for the 14th consecutive month, further supporting the bullish outlook for gold [3]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains strong, with expectations of continued bullish momentum. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice or more later this year, which, along with rising fiscal debt, could push gold prices towards the $5,000 mark or higher [5][7]. - Technical analysis indicates that if gold prices maintain their upward trajectory, there is potential for a significant bull market, with projections suggesting prices could reach between $5,500 and $6,000 [7][8]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have shown strong performance, recovering from previous declines and reducing bearish patterns. If this trend continues, it could lead to a new bull market with over 30% gains [7]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have stabilized above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating increased bullish potential and the possibility of reaching new historical highs [8]. - Daily charts indicate that gold is maintaining its position above short-term moving averages, with bullish signals persisting, suggesting a continued upward trend [10].

地缘政治风险压过供应过剩担忧，成为市场新主导逻辑。黄金再创新高，白银涨近3%，布伦特原油涨超1%逼近64美元/桶，同时市场正通过期权市场大举押 注油价上涨。据央视与新华社消息，特朗普将于13日商讨包括军事打击、派遣航母及网络攻击在内的多种干预方案。伊朗确认在近期动荡中数百人丧生。 伊朗方面的最新事态正在成为主导全球大宗商品市场的新逻辑。 1月12日周一避险情绪显著升温， 日内涨近2%，升破4590美元大关，再创历史新高。 涨幅扩大至4%，价格继续位于83美元的历史高位水平，逼近历史新高。 BZmain 布伦特原油(现金)主连 (2603) 交易中 01/11 19:26:29 (美东) 63.61 + +0.27 +0.43% 最高 1500 64.00 今开 63.41 成交量 最低 昨收 63.29 63.34 成交额 0 @ 5日 日K 周K 月к 季K 年K 1分 3分 5分 10分 15分 30分 1小时 2小时 3小时 4小时 | 1月 3月 63.96 63.61 63.36 62.75 62.15 61.55 60.94 60.34 A 59.74 成交量 VOL: 0.000 400.00 ...

| 能源化工 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | NYMEX WTI原 | | | | 59.61 | 63.85 | 57.81 | | +0.49 +0.83% +0.51 +0.81% -0.28 -0.48% | | | | INE原油 | | | | 437.7 | 3038 | 3.256 | | +11.9 +2.79% +40 +1.33% +0.087 +2.75% | | | 消息面上，全球地缘政治风险继续升温。 俄乌方面，据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间1月12日凌晨，乌克兰首都基辅响起强烈爆炸声。 此前，俄罗斯国防部11日通报称，过去一天，俄军对乌军工企业等目标实施了打击。乌克兰武 装部队总参谋部同一天通报称，对里海海域三座俄罗斯石油钻井平台实施了打击。 1月12日早盘，贵金属集体拉升。截至发稿， 现货黄金升至4550美元大关，再创历史新高；现货 白银涨幅扩大至2.79%。 现货铂金涨近3%，突破2320.00美元/盎司关口，最新报2327.80美元/盎 司。 | 国际贵金属 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 ...

伊朗方面的最新事态正在成为主导全球大宗商品市场的新逻辑。 1月12日周一避险情绪显著升温，现货黄金日内涨近1%，升至4550美元大关，再创历史新高。 白银涨幅扩大至2.7%，价格继续位于82美元的历史高位水平。 原油市场同样反应剧烈，布伦特原油和WTI原油双双涨超1%。数据显示，布伦特原油在经历了上周四和周五近6%的跳涨后，目前正逼近每桶64 美元关口，创下自10月以来的最大两日涨幅；WTI原油价格则维持在60美元附近。 市场焦虑的核心在于伊朗局势周末突变。当地时间1月11日，据央视新闻记者获悉，美国官员透露，美国总统特朗普正在考虑干涉伊朗的多种方 案，包括宣布向中东派遣航母战斗群、发动网络攻击和信息战等。另据新华社报道，特朗普将于13日与高级顾问会晤，专门讨论伊朗问题选项。 这一地缘政治风险盖过了此前市场对全球供应过剩的担忧。作为OPEC第四大产油国，伊朗近200万桶/日的原油出口面临中断风险，这直接改变了 投资者的预期。目前，市场正密切关注华盛顿方面的下一步决策以及德黑兰方面的应对措施。 避险买盘涌入 原油期权显露看涨信号 伊朗局势的动荡直接刺激了资金涌入大宗商品市场。油价已连续第三天上涨。 市场数据的变 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美方对伊朗相关应对方案的商讨已启动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-12 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国 12 月非农增 5 万人不及预期 非农就业不及预期但维持韧性，1 月大概率暂停降息，市场风险 偏好维持高位。 宏观策略（股指期货） 沪指站上 4100 点，续创 10 年新高 综 尽管近期存在监管层面为市场降温的意向，但股市气势如虹， 放量大涨一举站上 4100 点。短期内，市场仍存上冲动能。监管 层面是否会出台力度更大的降温动作，是重要风向标。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美方对伊朗相关应对方案的商讨已启动 报 周五金价震荡收涨，表现偏强，美国 12 月非农就业数据喜忧参 半，市场对美联储的降息预期变化不大。地缘政治风险利多贵 金属，但 Bloomberg 商品指数调整尚未结束。 农产品（白糖） 印度糖厂本年度签署约 18 万吨糖出口合同 印度本榨季已签约出口 18 万吨糖，因国内糖价回调和卢比疲软。 印度糖出口的关键时间窗口在巴西新榨季开启前的 1-3 月份，预 计该国糖实际总出口量难以达到官方额度。 有色金属（铜） 力拓与嘉能可合并后将主导全球铜供应 宏观乐观 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：王永生 责任编辑：王永生 黄金在亚洲早盘上涨。现货黄金上涨0.7%，至4，541.80美元/盎司。媒体援引美国官员的话报道称，美 国总统特朗普定于周二听取有关回应伊朗抗议活动的具体选项的简报。与此同时，美国继续扣押运送受 制裁石油进出委内瑞拉的所谓影子油轮。盛宝银行的Ole Hansen在一封电子邮件中表示，与伊朗和委内 瑞拉相关的地缘政治风险升温，重振了对黄金的避险需求。这位大宗商品策略主管补充说："黄金、白 银和铂金今年开局强劲，反映了地缘政治对冲、资金流和结构性投资主题的综合影响。" 黄金在亚洲早盘上涨。现货黄金上涨0.7%，至4，541.80美元/盎司。媒体援引美国官员的话报道称，美 国总统特朗普定于周二听取有关回应伊朗抗议活动的具体选项的简报。与此同时，美国继续扣押运送受 制裁石油进出委内瑞拉的所谓影子油轮。盛宝银行的Ole Hansen在一封电子邮件中表示，与伊朗和委内 瑞拉相关的地缘政治风险升温，重振了对黄金的避险需求。这位大宗商品策略主管补充说："黄金、白 银和铂金今年开局强劲，反映了地缘政治对冲、资金流和结构性投资主题的综合影响。" 新浪合作 ...

来源：证券日报 本报记者 杜雨萌 "今天黄金克重挂牌价比昨天调高了10元，这周已累计上涨至少30元。"1月10日，北京市朝阳区一家大 型商场的黄金饰品门店服务人员向记者表示。 记者在该商场黄金展柜区看到，相较于元旦期间，客流量略有减少，只有在推出较大优惠的品牌门店 前，还有驻足选购的消费者。 本轮国内首饰金价格上涨，根源仍在于国际金价的企稳回升。截至1月9日收盘，现货黄金价格回升至 4500美元/盎司之上，COMEX黄金期货价格也涨至4518.4美元/盎司，均距前期历史高点仅"一步之遥"。 领秀财经首席分析师刘思源在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，短期来看，一方面局部地缘政治风险 升温，引发避险资金加速涌入黄金市场，进而推动国际金价快速上行。另一方面，受上周五美国非农数 据低于预期影响，黄金多头延续强势表现，叠加市场对美联储降息的预期，这些因素均支撑短线国际金 价震荡上涨。长期而言，无论是2026年美联储降息政策的延续，还是各国央行为应对风险持续增持黄金 储备，预计都将支撑现货黄金市场的需求。 2026年伊始，国内金饰市场迎来年内首轮价格上调。 "这款采用古法黄金工艺的足金手链，前几天售价约2.7万元，因成本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is eager to restart oil production in Venezuela, controlling 30 to 50 million barrels of oil, but faces significant geopolitical uncertainties and investment risks that deter major oil companies from committing to the region [1]. Group 1: U.S. Government Actions - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced plans to lift sanctions on oil sales from Venezuela, potentially as soon as next week, and is considering using Venezuela's frozen IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR) for economic reconstruction [2]. - An emergency executive order was signed by President Trump to prevent U.S. courts from seizing oil revenue from Venezuela stored in U.S. Treasury accounts, indicating a strategy to control oil sales indefinitely [2]. Group 2: Oil Companies' Responses - Major oil companies remain cautious about large-scale investments in Venezuela, with executives expressing that the country is currently "not suitable for investment" without significant changes to local laws and business frameworks [3]. - ExxonMobil's CEO stated that Venezuela is "uninvestable" unless there are major legal reforms, while ConocoPhillips' CEO emphasized the need to discuss restructuring the entire energy system in Venezuela [3]. - Chevron is the only major U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela, but it has not committed to further investments despite the potential for short-term production increases [3]. Group 3: Financial Guarantees and Risks - Some oil executives have privately discussed seeking federal financial guarantees for expanding production in Venezuela, but Trump has indicated he will not make significant concessions regarding compensation for past losses [4]. - Trump emphasized that major oil companies would need to invest at least $100 billion without government funds, warning executives that there are others willing to take their place if they are not interested in investing [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook for Venezuela - Experts suggest that reviving the oil industry could cost hundreds of billions of dollars, which would not be sufficient to repair Venezuela's overall economy, which is burdened by heavy debt and ongoing crises [6]. - There is an urgent need for humanitarian aid and investment in non-profitable economic sectors, as the country faces severe infrastructure issues, including persistent power outages and water shortages [6]. - Given the current political instability, the prospects for Venezuela's oil industry and economy to recover in the short term appear bleak [6].

Group 1 - The domestic gold jewelry market has initiated its first price increase of the year in early 2026, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Chow Tai Fook raising prices due to rising costs [1] - The price of gold jewelry has increased significantly, with a specific example of a gold bracelet's price rising from approximately 27,000 yuan to about 31,000 yuan, reflecting a price increase of around 14.8% [1] - The current price of gold per gram has approached 1,400 yuan, with reports indicating a daily increase of 10 yuan and a total rise of at least 30 yuan within the week [1] Group 2 - The recent increase in domestic gold prices is primarily driven by the stabilization and rise of international gold prices, which have surpassed 4,500 USD per ounce as of January 9 [2] - Geopolitical risks and lower-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data have led to increased investment in gold, supporting a bullish trend in international gold prices [2] - Long-term expectations suggest that continued U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and central banks' increased gold reserves will sustain demand in the physical gold market [2]

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 1.94% to $12,702.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.23% to 101,400 yuan per ton [1] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 6.29% week-on-week, marking six consecutive weeks of accumulation, with total inventory up by 168,100 tons year-on-year [1][12] - The operating rate of the yellow copper rod industry decreased by 0.61% to 46.98%, while the enameled wire industry saw a decline of 0.66% in operating rate to 74.87% [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 2.22% to $3,088.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum increased by 6.13% to 24,300 yuan per ton [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises increased by 0.2% to 60.1%, indicating a mixed performance across different aluminum processing sectors [2][13] - The total production capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina reached 110.32 million tons per year, with an operating rate of 80.51% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 3.36% to $4,487.9 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 2 tons to 1,067.13 tons [3][14] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and unrest in Iran, have contributed to a strong and volatile market for gold [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 2.90%, with November exports of rare earth permanent magnets rising by 12% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, reaching a historical high for the month [4][36] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies and ongoing supply constraints are likely to support future demand and price increases in the rare earth sector [4][36] Group 5: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate increased by 11.5% to 131,800 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide rose by 10.9% to 126,900 yuan per ton [4][60] - Total lithium carbonate production reached 22,500 tons, with a slight increase of 0.01 million tons week-on-week [4][60] Group 6: Cobalt - The price of cobalt in the Jiangxi market rose by 1.1% to 460,000 yuan per ton, with cobalt intermediate prices also showing slight increases [5][63] - The overall cobalt market remains strong, with supply tightness expected to continue, supporting price stability [5][63] Group 7: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 1.8% to $17,100 per ton, while Shanghai nickel rose by 4.3% to 138,000 yuan per ton [5][64] - Nickel market sentiment turned optimistic due to potential tightening of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, leading to price increases [5][64]