Group 1: Gold Market Overview - On November 20, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 932.56 CNY per gram, with a daily increase of 0.22% and a trading volume of 223,736 lots [1] - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 932.00 CNY per gram, indicating a discount of 0.56 CNY per gram compared to the futures price [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - From mid-September to mid-October, the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose by nearly 40,000, suggesting weakened hiring intentions among businesses amid economic uncertainty [2] - The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for November showed that builder confidence remained low for the 19th consecutive month, with a slight increase of 1 point to 38 [2] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Gold and silver prices experienced a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.29% to 4,078.30 USD per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 1.08% to 51.07 USD per ounce [3] - The market faced selling pressure due to a general deleveraging, primarily caused by government shutdown concerns affecting the timely release of non-farm and inflation data, leading to a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts [3] - Long-term factors such as sovereign debt issues, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases driven by de-dollarization remain unchanged, supporting the core drivers of gold and silver prices [3] - The expected trading range for COMEX gold is between 4,000 and 4,200 USD per ounce, while the Shanghai gold range is between 910 and 960 CNY per gram [3]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Recently, crude oil has been fluctuating within a narrow range, with frequent switches between bullish and bearish sentiments and no clear trend. On Wednesday, crude oil rebounded slightly, mainly driven by the refined product side. The trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US have diverged, with diesel surging to a new stage high, possibly related to the approaching Russian sanctions date, but more of an emotional premium. Subsequently, the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure. Market concerns cannot be ignored: macroeconomic negatives have been temporarily ignored, the overnight panic index has risen, and European and American stock markets have fallen, while crude oil has not priced in this risk. After the subsequent positive factors fade, a corrective market may occur. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine, South America, and Africa provide potential bullish support, but the market has shown fatigue in reacting to these risks, and actual events are needed to have a pulling effect. Going forward, attention should be focused on the sustainability of the gasoline-diesel divergence and the impact of macro funds' risk aversion sentiment on crude oil [1]. Summary of Related Catalogs Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Trade within a range. The resistance level for Brent above is $65, and the support level below is $60. - Arbitrage: Hold off for now. - Options: Hold off for now [5]. Logic Analysis - The rally was driven by sentiment in the refined product side, with divergence and weak follow-up as key features. The core driving force behind the overnight rally in crude oil came from the refined product side, with a significant divergence in the trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US. Diesel soared to a new stage high due to the approaching Russian sanctions date (Russia mainly exports diesel and Europe mainly consumes diesel), providing emotional support for crude oil. However, this driving force is more of a short-term emotional premium - the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure of gasoline and diesel. At the same time, the follow-up increase in the crude oil market has significantly weakened, failing to form a strong follow-up pattern [8]. - Deteriorating macro sentiment hides potential risks, which may trigger a corrective market later. At the macro level, negative factors have been temporarily ignored by the market but have planted the seeds of risk. The overnight panic index rose significantly and lifted from a low level, European and American stock markets fell across the board, and the US stock market hit a new stage low. The risk aversion sentiment in the financial market is gradually fermenting. Currently, the crude oil market has not priced in this macro risk. If the positive support from geopolitical and refined product sides fades later, the market may reprice the fundamentals and macro logic, leading to a significant corrective market [9]. - Geopolitical risks provide emotional support, but it's difficult to have a substantial pulling effect without real events. There are numerous geopolitical risk points, including the high-intensity conflict between Russia and Ukraine, US pressure on Venezuela and Mexico, and the turmoil in Sudan (interruption of oil exports) and Libya in Africa, which constitute long-term potential bullish factors for the crude oil market. However, the crude oil market has shown fatigue in reacting to geopolitical news. These risks can only provide short-term emotional support and are difficult to have a substantial pulling effect. Only when geopolitical events actually occur and materialize will they have a corresponding impact on oil prices according to the degree of risk [10]. Related News - For the week ending November 14 in the US, API crude oil inventories increased by 4.448 million barrels, compared with a previous increase of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 790,000 barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 43,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.546 million barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 1.385 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 577,000 barrels, compared with a previous increase of 944,000 barrels [11]. - Sources said that due to a drone attack by Ukraine on Friday, the crude oil shipments at Russia's Novorossiysk port were delayed by 2 to 3 days compared with the original plan [11]. - According to foreign media reports, the US Treasury Department claimed in an unusual statement that its recent efforts to weaken Russia have been successful. The statement showed the market impact of measures targeting Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The office responsible for overseeing US sanctions at the Treasury Department said that "driven by the effectiveness of US sanctions, the demand for Russian oil is plummeting." The press release stated that various grades of Russian oil "are trading far below all other international prices," with some at multi-year lows. The statement - a November 17 memo from the economic analysis department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions - said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers indicated that they plan to suspend purchases of Russian oil for December delivery. A Treasury spokesperson said in an email that the Treasury is prepared to take further action to end the conflict if necessary [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, suggesting a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance since the end of October. The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] - The cost support for asphalt has been continuously weakening, the demand is expected to follow the seasonal weakening pattern, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the end of October, the oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance. Geopolitical risks have boosted the oil price, but the rebound height has always been limited [2] - According to the monthly reports of the three major institutions, considering the suspension of production increases by OPEC+ in the first quarter of next year and the strict implementation of production cut compensation, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively [2] - The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. The subsequent actual exports of Russia still have uncertainties, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but the possible increase in low-sulfur shipping volume caused by the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit of the Kaigute refinery at the end of December needs attention, and medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, and the cost support has been continuously weakening [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month-on-month and is also at a low level in the same period of the past four years [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" end-year rush demand expectation has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern. The medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import landed cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the demand on the combustion side has improved [4] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, meaning a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate short-selling opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Report's Core View - The oil market is facing different supply and demand situations, with crude oil expected to be volatile and weak, while fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas are expected to be bullish, and asphalt is expected to be bearish [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since late October, oil prices have continued to show a volatile and weak performance, with geopolitical risks providing some support but limited rebound [2] - According to the three major institutions' monthly reports, considering OPEC+'s suspension of production increases and strict implementation of production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day this year and 3.31 million barrels per day next year [2] - The supply-side contraction has not yet led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and a volatile and weak outlook is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, but the mid-term supply pattern is expected to be loose as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but mid-term supply pressure still exists, especially considering the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit at the Kert refinery in late December [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, weakening cost support [3] - Weekly shipments have decreased month-on-month since November and are at a low level in the same period in the past four years [3] - Commercial inventory depletion has continued to slow down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventory has widened since the end of October [3] - The expected rush demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been disproven, and subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern, with negative signals for year-end demand compared to last year [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the demand for combustion has improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the supply and demand have tightened marginally, leading to a bullish outlook [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil continues to oscillate, lacking short - term drivers, with geopolitical drivers potentially becoming the short - term main line; some energy and chemical products operate independently of crude oil, and the blending logic may drive the upward movement of aromatic products; methanol has high inventory pressure but may have a mid - term long - making logic [1][3]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Logic**: Last week's large fluctuations were due to the continuous strengthening of European and American refined oil and the expected weakening in the EIA monthly report. Currently, short - term drivers have not changed significantly, and the supply - demand logic is not smooth. Geopolitical drivers are worthy of attention, and a short - selling opportunity may arise after the US military action against Venezuela [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Recently, it has been relatively strong, with the rebound logic including short - term supply - demand improvement and the blending logic. The mid - term is still pessimistic due to supply - demand surplus and seasonal inventory accumulation [5][8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6400. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly level and look for short - selling opportunities after the daily - level rebound [8]. Rubber - **Logic**: The short - term contradiction is not prominent, and it is necessary to track the inventory accumulation rate. There is no fundamental driver for now [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. Hold long positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - loss at 15130, but the upward space is limited [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The internal contradiction is not large, and it is necessary to focus on the cost - end butadiene drive, which also faces mid - term inventory swelling pressure [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: The polyester industry chain's self - contradiction is not large. Pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 6715. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 6715 [16]. PTA - **Logic**: Similar to PX, pay attention to the blending logic and the geopolitical upgrade risk in the Caribbean region [19]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term upward structure, with a short - term support at 4620. Hold long positions on the hourly level with a stop - loss at 4620 [19]. PP - **Logic**: High supply pressure continues, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to the cost - end crude oil drive [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure, with a short - term pressure at 6520. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. Methanol - **Logic**: High inventory in ports suppresses the market, but domestic supply - demand structure has improved. Wait for long - making opportunities after the Iranian gas restriction is implemented and the price breaks through the pressure level. Also, pay attention to geopolitical drivers [25][27]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and short - term are in a downward structure. There are signs of short - term stabilization. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 2040, and look for long - making opportunities after the price breaks through 2040 [27]. PVC - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with no upward driver due to weak real - estate demand [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: High supply pressure and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [32]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level and hourly - level are in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [32]. Plastic - **Logic**: High supply, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. Be vigilant against short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [35]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in an oscillating structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, with a downward fundamental drive [39]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward momentum has weakened. Hold short positions on the remaining hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 1245 [39]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand, with no upward driver [40]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a downward structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [40].

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry sector is experiencing a significant pullback, with the popular defense ETF (512810) declining over 1% and hitting a six-month low, while major military stocks are also seeing declines [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The defense military ETF (512810) has seen a decline of 1.60%, trading at 0.676, with a drop of 0.011 [2]. - Major military stocks such as AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation have dropped nearly 3% and over 1% respectively [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The ETF has attracted over 100 million yuan in net subscriptions over the past six trading days, indicating active interest from investors [1]. - Analysts suggest that the fourth quarter may see the gradual realization of "14th Five-Year Plan" related orders, coupled with military trade catalysts, which could lead to a resurgence in the defense and military market [1]. - The defense industry is expected to benefit from geopolitical risks, technological advancements, and policy support, with potential for high-end weapon exports and a revaluation of core asset values [1]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - CITIC Securities' report indicates a shift in China's defense industry from "cyclical growth" to "comprehensive growth," driven by domestic demand, foreign trade expansion, and civilian contributions [3]. - The defense ETF (512810) is highlighted as an efficient tool for investing in core defense assets, covering various hot themes such as commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military AI [3].

聊到这儿，给咱中长线投资者说句实在的策略：咱不做短线投机，别被一天的涨跌牵着鼻子走。油价要看OPEC+增产和地缘风险的博弈，金价等美联储 12月会议的明确信号，基本金属重点盯下游需求复苏的动静。中长线赚钱的关键，是抓准核心矛盾，等确定性机会，而不是在消息面里追涨杀跌。 好了，今天就跟大家唠到这儿，20年跟盘的经验，只跟大家说实在的逻辑、靠谱的判断。觉得帮主说的有用，就多关注转发，后续大宗商品有新动向， 我第一时间跟大家同步！要不要我帮你整理一份本次大宗商品核心影响因素的精简笔记，方便你随时查看？收起 再说说金价，这两天跌得让不少人纳闷。核心原因特简单，之前大家都笃定美联储12月会降息，黄金不生息，降息预期一强它就涨；可现在美联储官员 开始喊"通胀可能停滞"，降息的事儿突然变得不确定了，预期一降温，金价自然就回调了。不过帮主得提醒一句，咱中长线看，金价的核心还是跟着美联 储政策走，短期的情绪波动别太当真。 还有伦铜这些基本金属，为啥也跟着跌？说白了就是美元走强了，近两周美元指数涨得挺猛，以美元计价的大宗商品，美元一涨吸引力就降，这是老祖 宗传下来的规律。但大家别慌，基本金属长期看的是全球经济复苏的需求，短期跟着 ...

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1] Energy Crude Oil - International oil prices fluctuated last week, with the Brent 01 contract rising 0.93%. Geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela supported oil prices, but the Russian Black Sea port resumed loading on Sunday. Supply-demand pressure in the crude oil market is expected to increase in Q4 and Q1 next year, and there is still a downside risk for oil prices in the medium term. Short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Russia's sanctions on two types of oil exports after November 21 and the release of Venezuelan risks [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The absolute price of fuel oil is still suppressed by the cost side. High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by a marginal decline in Russian exports due to sanctions and facility attacks in the short term, but its exports are expected to increase further as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends, and the medium-term supply pattern may become more relaxed. Low-sulfur fuel oil has seen some improvement in its fundamentals compared to the previous period, as unstable overseas refinery operations have relieved some supply pressure, and the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking provides support from the conversion logic, combined with the peak demand season for marine fuel in Q4 and the easing of Sino-US trade relations [20] LPG - Import resources are in short supply. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has improved the demand for the combustion end. The storage rates of refineries and ports have decreased. LPG is expected to show a slightly stronger and fluctuating trend under the tightening of supply and demand [22] Urea - The new plant of Xinjiang Zhongneng has successfully produced products, and the daily output of urea continues to increase. The start of production of industrial compound fertilizers has increased recently, and the reserve demand has followed up at low prices, resulting in a reduction in inventory for production enterprises. The impact of export sentiment is greater than the actual situation, and the short-term market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range, with the price center possibly moving slightly upward [23] Methanol - The volume of imported methanol arriving at ports continues to be high, and port inventories continue to accumulate. Overseas plants are operating at a high level, and there is an abundant supply of in-transit goods. The demand from traditional downstream industries remains weak, and there are expectations of shutdown and maintenance for several coastal MTO plants. Methanol may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Attention should be paid to the support at the integer mark, and the market is likely to rebound in response to positive news. Monitor the shutdown time of overseas plants and changes in port inventories [24] Pure Benzene - The overseas gasoline market is strong, and the market is mainly trading on the tight supply of US pure benzene and overseas blending oil demand. The outflow of Asian pure benzene and toluene has increased. The absolute price of pure benzene is low, and the profitability is poor, but the inventory pressure is not significant, and the price has elasticity. The price rebounded last week. However, the profitability of downstream industries is generally weak, and overseas demand may be volatile, so caution is needed when evaluating the height of the rebound [25] Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene - The overall supply in the propylene market is abundant. Production enterprises have a certain intention to stabilize the market, but the overall trading volume is average, and a small number of offers have seen narrow discounts. Downstream factories are mainly waiting and watching based on rigid demand, and their purchasing mentality is cautious. However, the gradual resumption of previously shut-down butanol and octanol plants provides some support for propylene demand. In the case of polyethylene, there are no new shutdowns in domestic petrochemical plants, and most are operating normally, resulting in a stable supply of domestic products. The orders of packaging film factories have decreased, and the demand is average, with a weakened willingness to replenish stocks. The operation rate of greenhouse film factories has declined, and new orders are limited, leading to a gradual weakening of demand and a reduction in raw material purchases. For polypropylene, the previously shut-down plants have gradually restarted, increasing the supply pressure slightly. Downstream industries continue to purchase based on rigid demand, and the market trading is average, with a supply-demand imbalance still existing. Although the cost side provides stronger support, the market price is still difficult to achieve continuous growth [27] PVC & Caustic Soda - PVC shows a fluctuating trend The cancellation of India's BIS certification slightly exceeded market expectations, but the overall impact is not significant. Attention should be paid to whether India's anti-dumping policy will be implemented. The price of calcium carbide is temporarily stable, and the integrated gross profit of Shandong caustic soda and PVC is slightly in the red, providing some cost support. Upstream plants are undergoing maintenance, resulting in a slight decline in industry inventories. Domestic demand is insufficient, and exports are affected by India's anti-dumping tax, leading to a wait-and-see attitude in the market. With high supply and weak demand, PVC is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Caustic soda also shows a fluctuating trend. The upstream cost has increased, and the price of caustic soda has weakened, resulting in a decline in the integrated profit of chlor-alkali. Inventories have decreased month-on-month but still face significant year-on-year pressure. The profitability of alumina has been compressed, and some enterprises are in the red, with a possibility of production cuts in the future. Currently, the raw material inventory is high, and downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to replenish stocks. With high supply and insufficient demand, caustic soda is operating weakly. Attention should be paid to changes in profitability in the future [28] PX & PTA - Affected by the tight supply of overseas aromatics, the price of PX has rebounded, driving up the price of PTA. The demand for terminal cold-proof fabrics is good, but the overall market atmosphere has cooled down. The profitability of PTA is poor, and there are still expectations of industry-wide production cuts. Recently, some plants have reduced their operating loads. The operating rate of PX plants is high, and there are also plans for plant maintenance in the future. The strong gasoline crack spread overseas and the tight supply of US aromatics have once again boosted the Asian aromatics market. However, considering the expected weakening of chemical demand and the uncertainty of the sustainability of overseas demand, a cautious bullish attitude is recommended [29] Ethylene Glycol - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly month-on-month, with integrated plants increasing their operating rates and syngas-based plants reducing theirs. The port inventory increased significantly on Monday according to Longzhong data. The start-up of new production capacity and the restart of old plants have increased the supply pressure significantly. In the short term, the increase in supply has been slightly alleviated by the increase in shutdowns of syngas-based plants. In the medium term, demand is expected to weaken, and a bearish outlook is maintained. The strategy of reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread is recommended. Continue to monitor the dynamics of plants after the decline in profitability of syngas-based plants [30] Short Fiber & Bottle Chip - There is no pressure from new production capacity for short fiber, and plants are operating at a high load. The spot market situation is good, but there are expectations of weakening demand, which may put pressure on processing margins. The absolute price fluctuates with the raw material price. As the weather gets colder, the demand for bottle chips has weakened, putting pressure on processing margins. The operating rate of plants has increased slightly, and overcapacity is a long-term pressure. The price is mainly driven by costs [31] Glass - The price of glass decreased with an increase in positions. The high inventory in the middle stream is still having a negative impact, and the spot price is showing a downward trend, with inventory accumulating this week. The increase in coal prices has raised costs and reduced profits. Four production lines in Shahe have stopped production, reducing the daily melting capacity. Processing orders have improved month-on-month but are still insufficient year-on-year. The high inventory in the middle stream persists, and the weak market reality continues. The futures price has limited upward momentum, and there is significant competition between bulls and bears in the short term. It is recommended to adopt a wait-and-see approach [32] 20 Rubber, Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber - The price of international crude oil futures has increased, while the price of raw materials in the Thai market has remained stable with a slight decline. Currently, the global supply of natural rubber is at a high level, but the production in Yunnan, China, has entered a declining period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to increase slowly, while the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to increase significantly. Last week, the operating rate of domestic all-steel radial tire plants decreased slightly, while that of semi-steel radial tire plants increased slightly. The inventory of finished products of Shandong tire enterprises continued to increase. According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased to 44.95 million tons last week, and according to Zhuochuang data, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to increase to 1.59 million tons, while the inventory of Chinese butadiene at ports continued to decline to 2.9 million tons. Overall, demand is slowly weakening, the supply of natural rubber is decreasing, the supply of synthetic rubber is increasing, rubber inventories are increasing, and cost support is stable. Market sentiment is cautious. The strategy is to expect a rebound for RU and BR after an oversold situation, adopt a wait-and-see approach for NR, and pay attention to cross-variety arbitrage opportunities such as NR and BR [33] Soda Ash - Soda ash shows a fluctuating trend. The market for light soda ash is performing well, and industry inventories are fluctuating within a narrow range. Costs have increased, and both ammonia-soda and combined-soda plants are slightly in the red. Some soda ash plants have undergone maintenance, resulting in a month-on-month decline in production. The ignition and cold repair of photovoltaic glass coexist, and the overall production capacity has not changed significantly. Four production lines of float glass have recently stopped production. Attention should be paid to the cost-driven factor. If costs decrease, the price may fluctuate in the short term. In the long term, under the high-pressure supply pattern, there will still be a situation of oversupply [34] Metals Precious Metals - International gold and silver prices dropped significantly on Friday. With the end of the longest government shutdown in US history, the market is waiting for economic data to further assess the economic and monetary policy outlook. The hawkish statements of Fed officials have suppressed expectations of interest rate cuts. Precious metals are forming a high-level consolidation platform, patiently waiting for new drivers and directional guidance from the technical side [3] Copper - The copper price first declined and then rebounded during the night session on Friday. Attention should be paid to the performance of short-term moving averages and the movement of funds. Last week, the domestic and international copper prices encountered resistance at $88,000 and $110,000 respectively. The main trading theme in the market is not clear. The market is waiting for US economic indicators and paying attention to the strength of domestic demand. The price of domestic spot copper is reported at 87,210 yuan, with a premium of 50 yuan in Shanghai and flat in Guangdong. Short-term high-level short positions can be traded with a stop-loss at 88,000 yuan. The copper price is currently in a consolidation phase [4] Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum declined on Friday. Although there are potential stories in the long-term supply and demand of the aluminum market, the short-term fundamentals are stable, and the inventory and spot performance are neutral. After the position in Shanghai aluminum increased to 800,000 lots, it decreased for two consecutive days. The overall linkage among non-ferrous metals is strong, and the slightly stronger and fluctuating trend has not been broken. Attention should be paid to the movement of funds [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan to 21,000 yuan on Friday. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the adjustment of the tax rate policy is still unclear. Both the industry inventory and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a high level. Cast aluminum alloy continues to fluctuate with the aluminum price, and there is no obvious driving force for the price difference [6] Alumina - The operating production capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and both the industry inventory and the exchange warehouse receipts continue to increase. The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change. There is a certain degree of reluctance to sell in the spot market, and the decline of the index has slowed down and is gradually approaching the cash loss in Shanxi and Henan. However, the price of ore has become more flexible, and there is a small amount of room for cost reduction. Before large-scale production cuts are implemented, alumina is expected to operate weakly with limited room for rebound [7] Zinc - Fed officials have made hawkish statements, leading to a widespread decline in the overseas equity market. Long positions in the non-ferrous metals sector have accelerated their exit. The price of Shanghai zinc has retraced to the 5-day moving average, erasing all the gains since November and failing to effectively break through the upper limit of the bottom consolidation range. The LME zinc inventory has continued to increase slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 159,600 tons. The divergence in inventory trends between the domestic and international markets has been temporarily corrected, and there is limited room for further expansion of the price difference between the domestic and international markets. The TC of both domestic and overseas mines has decreased simultaneously, and the zinc price has declined significantly, putting pressure on the profits of domestic smelters. Production cuts by some smelters have gradually been implemented. The support level for the rebound of Shanghai zinc is currently seen at the 20-day moving average [8] Lead - The price of lead is relatively high, and downstream procurement has significantly weakened. Smelters are actively resuming production, leading to a weakening of the fundamentals. Long funds have taken profits at high prices, and the net outflow of funds from the weighted Shanghai lead contract exceeded 100 million yuan during the day. Shanghai lead felt significant pressure near the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. The upcoming launch of energy storage orders and new national standard electric vehicles, along with the reduction in the tax exemption for new energy vehicles next year, have temporarily improved the consumption expectation of lead. However, as the weather gets colder, the orders of some battery enterprises have weakened, and the operating rate has declined, providing insufficient support for the high lead price. The supply of scrap batteries and lead concentrates remains tight. Considering the cost support, Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate within the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] Tin - The price fluctuation of Shanghai tin increased during the night session on Friday. After the main contract rebounded from the MA10 moving average and 288,000 yuan, it recovered the decline and fluctuated above 290,000 yuan. The social inventory of tin according to Steel Union increased by 646 tons to 7,934 tons last week, and the SMM social inventory increased by 410 tons to 7,443 tons. The tin market still needs to pay attention to changes in domestic funds. The uncertainty of the resumption rhythm of Dibang and the efficiency of the capacity rectification of Indonesia's天马 has led the market to focus on the tight supply situation last week. Wait for today's social inventory data. Long-term high-level short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] Iron Ore - The futures price of iron ore rebounded slightly last week. On the supply side, the global shipment volume is slightly stronger than the same period last year. The Simandou iron ore mine has officially started production, but the short-term production capacity that can be released is limited. The volume of iron ore arriving at domestic ports is at a high level for the same period, and the port inventory continues to show an increasing trend. There are some structural changes in the inventory of Australian iron ore. On the demand side, the demand for steel in the off-season has declined, and the loss situation of steel mills has worsened. Although the iron ore production rebounded last week, there is still room for production cuts in the future. At the macro level, many important events have been implemented and priced in, and the short-term impact on the futures price is weakening. The market has started to price in the reality of a marginal loosening of the iron ore supply-demand situation. It is expected that the price of iron ore will fluctuate [14] Coke - The price fluctuated during the day. The fourth round of price increases for coking coal was fully implemented this week. The profitability of coking enterprises is still average, and the daily production has decreased slightly. The coke inventory has decreased slightly. Currently, downstream enterprises are purchasing on a small scale based on demand, resulting in a slight reduction in inventory. The purchasing willingness of traders is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The iron ore production has returned to a high level, and the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The profit level of the steel industry is average, and there is a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures price of coke is at a premium, and the price is expected to fluctuate [15] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated during the day. The production of coking coal mines increased slightly. The spot auction transactions were normal, and the transaction prices showed a mixed trend. The terminal inventory increased slightly. The total inventory of coking coal increased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory at the production end increased slightly. Safety inspections have been carried out in major coal-producing regions. Attention should be paid to the relevant impacts. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant. The iron ore production has returned to a high level, and the demand for raw materials remains resilient. The profit level of the steel industry is average, and there is a strong intention to suppress raw material prices. The futures price of coke is at a premium, and the futures price of coking coal is at a discount to the Mongolian coal price. The market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in major coking coal-producing regions. The price is expected to fluctuate [1

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "first decline then stabilization" trend, influenced primarily by Federal Reserve policy expectations, with short-term price fluctuations expected but long-term support remaining strong due to central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - International gold prices opened lower at $4049.64 per ounce and have since recovered to $4078.59 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.92% from the previous day [1]. - Domestic gold T+D reported at 925.59 yuan per gram, down 29.12 yuan, a decline exceeding 3%, while the Shanghai gold main contract fell by 3.27% to 927.78 yuan per gram [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The primary reason for gold price fluctuations is the impact of Federal Reserve policy expectations, with recent hawkish statements from several officials leading to a drop in December rate cut expectations to around 41% [1]. - High interest rates or low expectations for rate cuts increase the "opportunity cost" of holding gold, making it less attractive to investors [1]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term declines, the long-term logic supporting gold prices remains intact, particularly due to ongoing purchases by global central banks, especially in emerging markets like China and India [1]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine may trigger a flight to safety, potentially causing a rebound in gold prices [1]. - The RSI indicator for London gold is nearing the "oversold" zone, suggesting that some investors may begin to enter the market for bottom-fishing [1]. Group 4: Future Price Movements - In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain volatile, with key economic data releases in the coming weeks expected to influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2]. - The upcoming December FOMC meeting will be crucial, as discussions on inflation and interest rates will directly impact the medium-term trajectory of gold prices [2].

Price Trends - Domestic gold jewelry prices have experienced a three-day decline starting from the 14th, with Lao Miao gold jewelry priced at 1289 yuan/gram, down 36 yuan/gram from the 13th; Lao Feng Xiang gold jewelry at 1293 yuan/gram, down 32 yuan/gram; and Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang both at 1305 yuan/gram, down 28 yuan and 23 yuan respectively from their high points on the 14th [2][3] Bank Adjustments - Several banks, including China CITIC Bank and China Construction Bank, have raised the minimum investment amount for gold accumulation products, with CITIC Bank increasing the minimum from 1000 yuan to 1500 yuan effective November 15, 2025 [3][4] - Some banks have shifted their gold accumulation model from fixed amounts to variable amounts based on gold price fluctuations [5] Market Analysis - International gold prices have shown significant pullbacks after reaching recent highs, attributed to the temporary easing of U.S. government shutdown risks and a decrease in safe-haven demand [5] - Analysts suggest that macroeconomic and geopolitical factors affecting gold prices remain complex, with ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and high geopolitical risks in regions like the Middle East [5] - Despite short-term volatility, many institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold, with UBS strategists predicting gold could reach 5000 USD/ounce between 2026 and 2027 [5] Future Scenarios - Citigroup has outlined multiple scenarios for gold prices, including a bullish scenario where gold could reach 6000 USD/ounce by the end of 2027 if there is a significant reallocation of global wealth [6] - Citigroup's base case anticipates a price drop to 3650 USD/ounce in 2026 due to an improving U.S. economic environment, while a bearish scenario could see prices fall to around 3000 USD/ounce if geopolitical tensions and fiscal concerns ease significantly [6]