Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong pattern. The short - term and intraday views are "oscillating strongly", while the medium - term view is "oscillating" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On the night of last Friday, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price slightly closing down 0.65% to 13,860 yuan/ton [5]. - **Core Logic**: The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the US over the weekend and Iran's vow to attack US military bases in the Middle East increased geopolitical risks, leading to a rise in the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The resonance factor supported the Shanghai rubber futures to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The unfavorable impact of the weak supply - demand structure of the rubber market itself was covered by the bullish atmosphere. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On the night of last Friday, the 2508 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with the futures price slightly closing down 1.12% to 11,460 yuan/ton [7]. - **Core Logic**: The bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the US over the weekend and Iran's vow to attack US military bases in the Middle East increased geopolitical risks, leading to a rise in the premium of energy - chemical commodities. The cost factor and resonance factor supported the synthetic rubber futures to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The unfavorable impact of the weak supply - demand structure of synthetic rubber itself was covered by the bullish atmosphere. It is expected that the 2508 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Monday [7].

Group 1: General Information - Report Period: June 23 - 27, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Weekly Report on Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7] - Trend Logic: Last week, the Fed's hawkish signals pushed up the US dollar and US Treasury yields, suppressing the gold price. However, geopolitical risks (escalation of the Middle - East conflict) and ETF purchases (an 8.31 - ton weekly increase in SPDR) provided support, causing gold to enter a consolidation phase. Next week, focus on economic data (core PCE, non - farm payrolls) and geopolitical situations. Weak data strengthening the interest - rate cut expectation or new changes in the Middle - East may lead to a gold price rebound; a continuously strengthening US dollar may continue to drive the price down. Central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but policy fluctuations may intensify short - term volatility [7] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 774 - 782, and the upper resistance was 800 - 808 [10] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 766 - 775, and the upper resistance is 800 - 808 [11] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold's internal - external price difference [17][19][21] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a consolidation phase, and it may be near the end of the trend [30] - Trend Logic: Last week, the silver price first rose and then fell, mainly driven by fluctuations in Fed policy expectations (interest rates remained unchanged but the easing expectation increased) and US dollar fluctuations. The industrial property of silver (surge in photovoltaic demand + global shortage) drove the silver price to a new high. The repair of the gold - silver ratio strengthened the upward trend, but hawkish signals and the stabilization of the US dollar led to profit - taking. Next week, a tight supply - demand balance (low inventory) and dovish expectations are expected to support a relatively strong consolidation. Be vigilant against the suppression of a US dollar rebound, and the impact of geopolitical risks is limited [30] - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will operate strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper resistance at 8900 - 9000 [33] 3. Relevant Data - Data includes the trend of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver's internal - external price difference [41][43][45]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risk has significantly increased after the US attacked Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar index. The situation in the Middle East is moving towards escalation, and the market is closely watching Iran's retaliatory actions [12]. - The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July, but the impact on the US stock market is uncertain due to the unclear situation in the Middle East. The US stock market is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - Gold prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the Middle East conflict amplifying market volatility [18][19]. - A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly to cope with fluctuations [24][25]. - In the bond market, the curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [27][28]. - In the commodity market, different products have different trends. For example, the overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support; sugar prices have limited rebound space; cotton prices are expected to oscillate; and the prices of some metals and energy - chemical products are affected by supply - demand relationships and geopolitical factors [30][36][40]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities, and the geopolitical risk has increased. The short - term US dollar index is expected to strengthen [11][12]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Iranian parliament may close the Strait of Hormuz. The US may revoke exemptions for some semiconductor manufacturers. The Fed may cut interest rates as early as July. The US stock market is under pressure, but the market's reaction is limited for now [13][14][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US military strike on Iran has intensified the geopolitical situation. Gold prices are expected to oscillate, affected by both the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of the US dollar [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Overseas conflicts have led to a decline in global risk appetite. The A - share market is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly [20][24][25]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The 6 - month LPR remains stable. The curve of treasury bond futures is expected to continue to steepen, and long positions can be held [26][27][28]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, but the price increase is hindered by India's order cancellation. The overall price of edible oils has a strong bottom support [29][30]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Pakistan plans to import 750,000 tons of sugar. The external market of sugar may rebound weakly, while the internal market has limited rebound space [31][35][36]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - China's textile and clothing exports have increased. The US cotton export has shown changes. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate, with both upward and downward space limited [37][39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The inventory of cassava starch in domestic ports is high. It is recommended to wait and see the CS - C spread [41]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The wheat price first rose and then fell. The 09 - contract of corn is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling the 11 and 01 contracts in the future [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The import of steam coal has increased. The short - term price is expected to be stable, but the downward trend has not ended. Attention should be paid to the hydropower and daily consumption in July [43][44]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China's automobile exports have increased. The iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and it is recommended to short - sell at high prices [45]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA's weekly export sales report is better than expected. The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the USDA area report on June 30 and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas [46][48][49]. 2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to use the strategy of hedging on the spot side when the price rebounds [51][52]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The geopolitical situation has a complex impact on copper prices. The short - term volatility of the copper market may increase, and it is recommended to wait patiently for opportunities [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The nickel price is oscillating weakly at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side and pay attention to the strategy of short - selling at high prices in Q3 [59][60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The import of lithium carbonate has decreased. The short - term pressure on the lithium carbonate market is high, and it is not recommended to short - sell at the current point [61][62][63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The export of polysilicon has increased. Before the leading enterprises cut production, the market is bearish. It is recommended to consider short - term short and long - term long strategies [64][65]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The inventory of industrial silicon has decreased, but the supply is still greater than the demand. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell lightly after the price rebounds [66][67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The export of lead - acid batteries has decreased. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and buy on dips [70]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The export of die - cast zinc alloy has decreased. The zinc market is expected to be bearish. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices and consider positive - spread arbitrage strategies [75]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has decreased slightly. The EU carbon price is expected to have greater short - term fluctuations [76][77]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle East conflict may further escalate, and the oil price is expected to oscillate strongly [78][79][80]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market is weakening, but the downward space of the 09 contract is limited [81][82]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp market price is weak. It is expected to oscillate due to the impact of the Middle East conflict [83][84]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC spot price has increased, but the increase is expected to be limited due to its weak relationship with crude oil [85]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factories plan to cut production in July, which will relieve the supply pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing margin by buying at low prices [87]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is weak. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices in the medium term [89]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass price is affected by the increase in crude oil prices and policy expectations. However, due to the seasonal decline in demand, the price may decline. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable [90][91].

黄金复盘和前瞻分析 美军参战，打击伊朗核设施，地缘风险骤然上升，意味着什么？点击观看金十研究员高阳直播分析 相关链接 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and geopolitical tensions, leading to a complex market environment for investors [1][3][5]. Market Analysis - Gold prices fluctuated, dropping from a high of $3370 to below $3350, marking a potential three-week decline [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and its projection of only two rate cuts by the end of 2025 have contributed to the bearish sentiment in the gold market [3][5]. - Despite the overall weakness, a retreat in the US dollar and ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Iran, have provided some support for gold prices [3][5]. Trading Strategy - Current trading strategies suggest a focus on short positions, with key price levels to watch being $3330 for support and $3370 for resistance [5][6]. - The market is characterized by a struggle between bullish and bearish sentiments, making it crucial for traders to adapt their strategies based on price movements [3][5]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly related to Iran's nuclear program, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][5]. - President Trump's statements regarding potential military action against Iran have further escalated concerns, impacting market sentiment [3].

| 《八 国投期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年06月20日 | | 原油 | ★☆★ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆★ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【沥青】 沥青跟随油价冲高回落。原油配额逐渐消耗下地炼增产缺乏韧性,检修高峰后主营族厂主要计划提升深加工装 置开工，沥青产量增幅预计有限。54家样本炼厂出货量环比持续增长，累计同比转增。压路机销量作为沥青消 赞领先指标，1-4月销量同比大增，终端需求实质提报指日可待。截止6月19日，炼厂及社会周度库存数据总体 延续下滑态势。沥青基本面端的支撑因素仍在，然地缘风险导致的油价上行风险解除前BU裂解承压。 【LP ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 20 日 热点品种 商品 力 涨 幅与增仓 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加 拿大阿尔伯塔省的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协 议谈判陷入僵局，会谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和 伊朗近期已经将袭击目标从核设施及军事设施扩大至能源设施。另外，近期以色 列和伊朗间的风险有所外溢，中东地缘风险加剧升温，美国石油钻井数量下降幅 度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求端，美国非农数据、 CPI 数据好于预期，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议上中美原则上达成协议框架，市 场风险偏好回升，美国进入传统出行旺季， ...

【冠通研究】 沥青：冲高回落 制作日期：2025年6月20日 【策略分析】 单边观望/逢低做多沥青09-12价差 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.1个百分点至30.4%，较去年同期高了4.7个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，处于近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，6月份地炼预计排产130.9万吨，环 比增加6.5万吨，增幅为5.2%，同比增加37万吨，增幅为39.3%。本周沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现， 其中道路沥青开工环比下降3个百分点至22.6%，仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金制约。本周山 东地区个别炼厂复产，加之原油价格上涨带动交投气氛，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加 5.99%至28.83万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比继续回落，仍处于近年来同期的最 低位，南方仍有降雨间歇影响，资金仍受制约，北方需求表现尚可。美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局，会 谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，以色列和伊朗互相袭击，并将袭击目标扩大至能 源设施，中东地缘风险急剧升温。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是全球贸易战阴云仍未完全散去， 美国特朗普政府向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that geopolitical risks will elevate oil prices, with Brent crude potentially facing a $10 per barrel risk premium despite expectations of a drop to around $60 per barrel in Q4 under normal supply conditions [1] - Fitch Ratings states that the fiscal outlook for the U.S. remains challenging, projecting that the general government fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP will decrease from nearly 8% in 2024 to 7.1% in 2025, but will rise to 7.6% by 2026 [1] - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that if the U.S. confirms involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, the dollar may decline, as U.S. intervention could accelerate the conflict's resolution and reduce Iran's motivation for oil supply disruptions [1] Group 2 - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reports that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to act hastily in the face of inflation, maintaining a cautious stance and indicating no immediate plans for rate cuts [2] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to implement two or fewer rate cuts in 2023, with the central tendency for the target rate remaining at 3.9% [3] - CITIC Securities anticipates that Level 3 (L3) autonomous driving will become the main upgrade direction from Q4 2025 to 2026, driven by increased regulatory focus on safety [4] Group 3 - China Merchants Macro reports that the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to potential stagflation risks is delaying rate cuts, with internal divisions evident regarding future monetary policy [5][6] - Huaxi Securities notes that the market is returning to a volatile pattern, with upward pressure from profit-taking and support for bullish sentiment [6] - Minsheng Macro predicts that hard economic data in the U.S. will likely decline in the second half of the year, with stagflation risks becoming a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's decisions [6]

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are increasing, potentially leading to a bullish turn for gold [1] - The analysis of order flow trading signals is crucial for understanding market movements [1] Group 1 - The current geopolitical landscape is causing disturbances that may benefit gold prices [1] - There is a live analysis session available for subscribers to gain insights into commodity trends [1]