Group 1 - The report emphasizes a strategy of maintaining confidence in policies while lowering slope expectations, recommending a "4+1" investment approach focusing on domestic consumption, technology growth, cost improvement, and structural opportunities abroad, along with a stable dividend base [3][22][20] - The report identifies key sectors for investment in June, including transportation, non-bank financials, coal, environmental protection, construction decoration, beauty care, food and beverage, media, electric equipment, and social services based on an industry rotation model [4][25] Group 2 - In the media sector, Shanghai Film (601595.SH) is highlighted as a leading company benefiting from the recovery of the film market, with AI technology enhancing cost efficiency and expanding IP monetization opportunities [5][27] - In the communication sector, New Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) is recognized as a global leader in optical modules, with ongoing partnerships with major internet and communication equipment companies, driven by increasing demand for high-speed optical modules [6][30] - In the electric new energy sector, Daikin Heavy Industries (002487.SZ) is noted for being the only supplier in the Asia-Pacific region capable of delivering offshore products to Europe, with a robust order book and potential for profit growth as European offshore wind projects accelerate [7][32] - In the utilities sector, China Nuclear Power (601985.SH) is positioned as a domestic duopoly with significant cost advantages in nuclear power generation, promising future profits and dividends [8][34] - In the pharmaceutical sector, Sanofi Pharmaceutical (1530.HK) is recognized for its diverse product portfolio and strong commercialization capabilities, with promising new drug pipelines [9][36] - In the chemical sector, Zhenhua Co. (603067.SH) is highlighted as a leading global player in the chromium salt industry, expected to benefit from strong downstream demand [10][39] - In the automotive sector, XPeng Motors (9868.HK) is noted for its strong product lineup and potential for profitability as it expands its AI capabilities [11][42] - In the consumer discretionary sector, Ninebot (689009.SH) is projected to maintain high double-digit revenue growth in Q2, driven by strong sales of electric scooters and lawnmowers [12][44] - In the non-bank financial sector, Jiangsu Jinzhong (600901.SH) is expected to benefit from lower funding costs due to monetary easing, with projected earnings growth of 13% in 2025 [13][47] - In the computer sector, Zhuoyi Information (688258.SH) is recognized for its innovative AI programming products and potential benefits from high computing demand [14][50]

行 业 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 点 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-80128600-8631 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-80128600-8630 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@ ...

Core Insights - Geopolitical risks are rising, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - Ongoing uncertainty in trade prospects is contributing to market volatility [1] - Traders are analyzing whether to adopt a "one-sided" or "volatile" trading strategy in response to current market conditions [1] Industry Analysis - The gold market is experiencing heightened interest due to external geopolitical factors [1] - Trade uncertainties are influencing investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] - The current trading environment is prompting discussions among traders regarding strategy adjustments [1]

步入年中，黄金市场多空力量激烈博弈，尽管短期价格波动加剧，但从基本面到政策面，多重利好因素 正为黄金的长期价值提供坚实支撑。当前金价震荡格局为投资者提供了绝佳的布局窗口，皇御贵金属平 台(bibgw.top/XZMPz8)同步推出如"免费领取18美元"、"自助申请50000美元赠金"、"交易回赠$26/手点 差"等多重新客福利，助投资者轻松布局，抓取行情红利！ 1. 地缘风险与关税不确定性"双保险" 全球地缘时政局势持续紧张，中东冲突反复、俄乌和谈进展缓慢，叠加市场对"全球贸易战2.0"的担忧 不断升温。与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔近期坦言"关税对经济的影响远超预期"，进一步加剧了市场对 政策不确定性的焦虑。历史经验表明，地缘冲突与贸易摩擦的叠加效应往往推动资金涌入黄金，使其成 为对冲风险的核心工具。 A：新客登录用户中心，激活交易账户，并一键参与积分活动，达标可领取1800积分福利！ Q：通过什么方式获得赠金？ 2. 降息预期与美元信用的长期角力 尽管美联储5月会议维持利率不变，但美国经济数据疲软、债务率攀升至124%，因此市场仍押注年内降 息1-2次。在降息预期下，实际利率下行将直接削弱美元吸引力，而黄金作 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil - Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is waiting for the results of this Wednesday's meeting, with reduced price fluctuations. Crude oil prices are currently oscillating in the low - range of $60 - 68, and the medium - to - long - term downward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Supply - side pressure is continuously accumulating. If the OPEC+ production increase policy is implemented in July, the total increase will reach 1.23 million barrels per day, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Geopolitical factors have high popularity but low pricing impact on the market. Although there are concerns about conflict escalation, historical experience shows that the impact on oil prices is short - lived [2]. - The market is currently in a weak balance, with geopolitical risks offsetting supply - side pressures. In the medium - to - long - term, inventory accumulation caused by OPEC+ production increases is difficult to reverse [4]. Summary by Directory Market Structure - The report presents the WTI, Brent, and SC forward curves and their respective monthly spreads, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the given text [1][15][17] Supply - OPEC+ has been over - producing in May and June, and the market expects the same increase in July. Saudi's production policy shift has undermined the alliance's discipline. If the policy is implemented in July, the total OPEC+ increase will be 1.23 million barrels per day. US shale oil production is also at a historical high, and the global crude oil surplus may exceed 3 million barrels per day [2]. - Russia has extended its gasoline export ban until the end of June, which has a limited impact on crude oil exports but eases market sentiment [2]. Demand - Although the easing of Sino - US trade frictions has injected short - term confidence into the demand side, the certainty of OPEC+ accelerating production increases has put pressure on the fundamentals [4]. Inventory - The EIA predicts that global commercial crude oil inventories will exceed 5.3 billion barrels in the third quarter, with a year - on - year increase of 12% [4]. Geopolitical Risks - There are concerns about a potential conflict between Israel and Iran. If Israel attacks, Iran may counter - attack in three ways, but the probability of blocking the Strait of Hormuz is low. The US Navy's deployment has reduced market concerns about a continuous supply shock [3]. Operation Suggestions - The market currently prices downward risks higher than upward risks. If there is an unexpected breakthrough in the Iran nuclear negotiations, it may cause a negative impact; conversely, the outbreak of conflict will bring short - term upward momentum. In the medium - to - long - term, every rebound is a good opportunity to enter a short position [4].

2025 年 05 月 24 日 策略研究团队 理解消费今年以来的领涨——从总量到结构 ——投资策略周报 韦冀星（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 无论是 4 月以来，还是年初以来，消费均领涨 无论是 4 月以来（尤其是对等关税实施后），还是今年年初以来，市场领涨的细分板 块均以消费为主，其中又以个护用品、动保、饲料、休闲食品、化妆品等品种涨幅 最为领先。我们自 2.12 春季策略展望以来推荐的消费细分行业则包括服装鞋帽、汽 车（包括两轮电动车）、零售、食品、美容护理、养殖、饲料、零食。 如何理解消费今年以来的领涨——从总量到结构 1、预期差 1：财政即便是弱扩张，社零也有更高弹性。我们发现，社零增速的弹性 对财政支出周期非常敏感。许多投资者倾向于认为，消费是显著的后周期品种，往 往需要投资或出口有显著的改善之后，消费的提振才慢慢显现。但我们发现一个预 期差：社零同比增速与名义 GDP 增速的轧差可以看做社零的弹性，当财政支出在下 行（收紧）周期时，社零的弹性减弱，而当财政支出在上行（扩张）周期时，社零 的弹性上行。随着财政支出周期从 2023-2024 ...

理性预期回归挤出情绪溢价，PX、PTA估值存回调修复压力 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 05月21日，PX 主力合约收6766.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.47%，基差 为-1.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4788.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.18%，基 差为112.0元/吨。 成本端，05月21日，布油主力合约收盘65.6美元/桶。WTI收62.25美元/ 桶。 市场继续关注俄乌、美伊局势，油价短期震荡格局对成本端支撑有限。涤 丝库存压力缓解，未来关注下游纱厂备货节奏。 1/8 二、产业链价格监测 | | 数据指标 | 2025-05-21 | 2025-05-20 | 変化 | 近日涨跌幅 | 走勢 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX期货 | 主力合约价格 | 6,766 | 6,668 | 98 | 1.47% | | ...

黄金行情讲解中 黄金小幅回调3300是否失守？中东地缘风险再度升级！金价何时触及阶段支撑？TTPS团队交易学长正 在讲解，立即观看！ 相关链接 ...

原油库存压力明显，油价弱势运行 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 日度市场总结 1. 数据变化分析 期货价格：SC原油小幅走高，5月21日报470.1元/桶，较前一日上涨 1.01%，盘中波动区间为[463.2, 470.1]，显示市场对亚洲地区需求预期的 边际改善。WTI与Brent继续下探，WTI收于61.34美元/桶（跌1.46%）， Brent收于64.58美元/桶（跌1.55%），欧美市场受库存压力及需求担忧拖 累。 价差结构：SC-Brent价差显著走强，由-1.15美元/桶升至0.65美元/桶。SC 近月合约（连-连3）价差由贴水转平水（-0.9→0.0元/桶），短期供需矛 盾有所缓解。 2. 供需及库存动态 供给端：**OPEC+政策方面，**7月可能继续增产，但幅度或弱于预期（资 讯5月21日），叠加伊拉克对库尔德地区能源协议的保留意见（资讯5月21 日），供应增量存在不确定性。**美国方面，**EIA数据显示，当周原油进 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-05-22 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 晨会纪要 合成胶（BR） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 核 ...