Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has shown a decline of 0.47% as of June 10, 2025, with a latest price of 7.66 yuan and a trading volume of 15.0177 million yuan. The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the seventh consecutive month, indicating a positive outlook for gold prices driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Market Trends - As of the end of May, China's official gold reserves stood at 7.383 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), reflecting an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) month-on-month [1]. - Zhejiang Securities anticipates further increases in gold reserves, emphasizing the positive impact of central bank purchases on gold prices in the medium to long term [1]. - Recent reports from Caixin Securities highlight the fragility of the economic recovery in the U.S., with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.9 and ADP employment growth falling short of expectations, which may influence gold demand as a safe haven [1]. Group 2: Performance Metrics of Shanghai Gold ETF - As of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Gold ETF has seen a 37.01% increase in net value over the past year, ranking in the top 2 among comparable funds [2]. - The ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 10.00% since inception, with the longest streak of monthly gains being 6 months and an average monthly return of 3.04% [2]. - The historical probability of profit over a 3-year holding period for the ETF stands at 100% [2]. Group 3: Risk and Fee Structure - The Shanghai Gold ETF has a Sharpe ratio of 2.51 as of June 6, 2025, ranking in the top 2 out of 7 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [3]. - The ETF has shown a relative drawdown of 0.17% year-to-date compared to its benchmark, suggesting lower risk in terms of drawdown among comparable funds [3]. - The management fee for the Shanghai Gold ETF is 0.25%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are relatively low compared to similar funds [4].

国家外汇管理局近日公布的数据显示，央行连续7个月增持黄金。 券商中国记者注意到，近日券商分析师纷纷对央行购金及未来黄金走势进行进一步解读。分析师普遍认为，中 长期来看，各国央行对于黄金的储备仍有进一步提升空间，央行购金行为有望延续，预计未来金价仍有提升空 间。 除了黄金之外，一些机构还直言看好短期白银投资机会。 机构：央行黄金储备份额提升空间依然广阔 国家外汇管理局近日公布的数据显示，截至5月末，我国外汇储备规模为32853亿美元，较4月末上升36亿美 元，升幅为0.11%。其中，黄金储备为7383万盎司，环比增加6万盎司，为央行连续7个月增持。 国金证券最新解读称，央行购金需求或为中长期趋势，阶段性高点或出现在"美债危机"。一方面，美元信用走 弱甚至触及"美债违约"风险，均将支撑央行购金需求；另一方面，逆全球化风险尤其贸易谈判不确定性上升的 背景下，全球央行或继续增持黄金以提升储备资产的安全性和多元化。中长期维度下，央行黄金储备份额提升 空间依然广阔。 浙商证券首席经济学家李超认为，预计黄金未来仍有进一步提升空间。中长期来看应重点关注各国央行的购金 行为对黄金价格的正向驱动，预计来自各国央行的资金有望保持净 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the context of strong demand growth, insufficient supply release, and a long - term bullish trend in gold, geopolitical crises, continuous central bank gold purchases, a loose monetary environment, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit support the long - term strength of gold prices. The report maintains that gold is expected to reach a high of $3,800 - $4,000 per ounce this year, corresponding to a RMB price of 880 - 930 yuan per gram. For silver, it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan per kilogram this year, with the US silver above $42 per ounce. Investors can buy long positions in gold and silver on dips [3][26]. Summary by Relevant Aspects Silver Market Demand - Silver is the core material for photovoltaic cell conductive paste, with about 80 tons of silver consumed per 1GW of photovoltaic installed capacity. In 2024, global new photovoltaic installed capacity exceeded 600GW, and the demand for silver paste increased by over 25% year - on - year. In 2025, global photovoltaic installed capacity continued to grow steadily, leading to a rapid increase in the industrial demand for silver. It is predicted that global photovoltaic installed capacity will increase from 390GW in 2023 to 1000GW in 2030. In 2024, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 277.57GW, maintaining its global leading position and strongly supporting domestic silver demand. Additionally, the semiconductor industry, servers, and high - performance chips also show a surging demand for silver conduction [5]. Supply - 70% of global silver is a by - product of copper, lead, and zinc mines. Affected by the low prices of base metals, global silver production has declined in recent years. In 2024, global silver production was 25,000 tons, a 2% year - on - year decline. The contraction in supply has led to a 45% decline in the London Bullion Market Association's silver inventory over the past three years to 26,000 tons, only enough to cover 5 months of industrial demand [8]. Price Influence - Silver has both industrial and precious metal attributes and is affected by gold prices. The current domestic "silver/gold" ratio is around 11.2, which is in the undervalued area [11]. Geopolitical Factors - On June 1, 2025, the Russia - Ukraine conflict reached a historic turning point. Ukraine launched a special military operation, and Russia urgently initiated the deployment procedure of 300,000 - ton strategic nuclear weapons, casting a shadow of nuclear deterrence over Eurasia. In addition, the situations in India - Pakistan and the Middle East remain unstable, which drives up the prices of precious metals [14]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 70,000 ounces in April 2025, which was the sixth consecutive month of gold purchases since November 2024. Since November 2022, the central bank has restarted gold purchases, buying 62.21 tons in 2022, 224.88 tons in 2023, 44.17 tons in 2024, and 14.9 tons in the first four months of 2025. As of the end of April, the central bank held 2,295 tons of gold, indicating the substitution demand for US dollar assets and the official recognition of the long - term value of gold [15]. Monetary Policy - On May 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points, injecting about 1 trillion yuan of liquidity into the market. This was the second reserve requirement ratio cut since September 2024. Since 2021, China has been in a cycle of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the interest rate level has been declining. In addition, the monetary policies of major economies such as Europe and the United States are also becoming more accommodative. The Federal Reserve entered an interest rate cut cycle in December 2023, and there is still an expectation of several interest rate cuts this year. Europe is also in a long - term interest rate cut cycle. The global loose monetary environment remains unchanged, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by major economies will further push up the price of gold [18][20]. US Dollar and Gold - The US federal government debt reached $37 trillion in May 2025, up from $36 trillion in November 2024, with the debt scale expanding at an accelerating pace. The Federal Reserve's continuous bond purchases have led to currency over - issuance, weakening the US dollar's purchasing power in the long run. When the US dollar's credit is damaged, gold, as a non - credit currency, is often favored. The US dollar is likely to enter a long - term depreciation channel, and gold will benefit from the currency substitution demand. Recently, the US dollar index has continued to decline, falling below 110 since January [22][23]. Gold Price Technical Analysis - Technically, the gold price is still supported by the support line. Every "pullback" is supported by the strong support line, and May was no exception. Now, gold has returned to the upward price trend [24].

Group 1 - Despite rising gold prices, gold mining ETFs are experiencing capital outflows, indicating a diminishing appeal in this once-thriving sector [1] - Year-to-date, gold mining stocks have significantly outperformed the broader market, with the largest gold mining ETF, VanEck (GDX.US), rising 57%, surpassing gold's 24% increase [1] - Monthly capital outflows have been observed in the VanEck ETF throughout the year, except for May, even as gold prices reached historical highs [1][3] Group 2 - Factors contributing to the outflows include long-term budget overruns making investors wary of holding mining stocks, with many viewing them as trading opportunities rather than long-term investments [3] - The Nasdaq 100 index, primarily composed of tech stocks, has risen 10% since late April, attracting traders away from gold mining stocks [3] - Analysts from Bank of America Securities have suggested investors shift from gold to oil, highlighting the relative value differences between these asset classes [3] Group 3 - Despite recent gains, mining stocks are still considered undervalued based on historical price-to-earnings ratios, with Newmont Mining (NEM.US) having a forward P/E ratio of only 13, below its five-year average of 20 [4] - Current valuations imply a gold resource value of only $1,454 per ounce, significantly lower than the current spot gold price of $3,380 [6] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with estimates of monthly purchases averaging 80 tons, contributing to ongoing support for gold prices [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the volatility of gold prices, with significant fluctuations becoming commonplace, particularly after April, where daily price changes of $100 have become routine [1][3] - The current market conditions are driven by various factors including trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, de-dollarization, and uncertainties in Federal Reserve policies, leading to increased investor speculation in gold [3][5] - The gold market is expected to experience a range of $2950 to $3500, with potential for both long and short positions as long as there are sufficient reasons and risk management is in place [3][5] Group 2 - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $3415 and $3438, with a potential breakthrough leading to new highs around $3500, while support levels are noted at $3280-$3285 and $3300 [5][8] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on the range between $3365 and $3330, with opportunities for both long and short positions depending on market movements [7][8] - The silver market is advised to follow gold's trends without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [9]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and economic recession fears [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has seen unprecedented daily price movements, with fluctuations of $100 becoming routine, indicating a highly speculative environment [1]. - The recent trading session showed a high of 3345 and a low of 3279, with a total daily range of $66, which is considered normal for recent market conditions [1][3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt strict stop-loss strategies and to be flexible in their trading approach, whether going long or short, as long as there are solid reasons for their positions [1]. - Key support levels to watch include the 3280 area, with potential pullbacks to 3250-55 or even 3200 if the market declines [5][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 3315 area acting as a resistance level and the 3280 area serving as a support level [7]. - The trading strategy should involve buying near support levels and selling at resistance, with specific attention to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages for additional support [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump's second - term tax cut expansion may lead to concerns about the unsustainability of US public debt. Combined with continuous gold purchases by central banks worldwide and geopolitical risks, precious metal prices are likely to rise rather than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly establish long positions on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Policy and Interest Rates - The US Senate and House of Representatives passed a temporary spending bill until September 30. The CBO predicts that the Treasury's funds may be exhausted between August and October, which could slow down the Fed's balance - sheet reduction. Trump's administration plans to cut the 2026 fiscal budget by $163 billion. With better - than - expected economic data and lower - than - expected inflation in April, the Fed may cut interest rates in September or December [3]. - The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit mechanism rate to 2.25%. Given the economic data and the economist's prediction of the neutral interest rate, the ECB may cut interest rates 2 - 3 more times before the end of 2025 [3]. - The Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% in May and will continue to reduce its government bond holdings by £100 billion from October 2024 to September 2025. Due to inflation data, the market expects the BoE to cut interest rates only once more before the end of 2025 [3]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, bringing the benchmark rate to 0.5%. With inflation data and the stance of some officials, the market still expects the BoJ to raise interest rates [4]. US Debt and Liquidity - The US outstanding public debt is $36.2 trillion, hitting the $36.1 trillion debt ceiling. Trump's second - term tax cut bill may increase the fiscal deficit by at least $3.3 trillion in the next decade, raising concerns about debt sustainability [9]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale is about $162.8 billion. From a weekly perspective, the Fed's bank reserve balance increased, the overnight reverse repurchase scale decreased, and the Treasury's general account cash balance decreased. Before the debt - ceiling issue is resolved, the Treasury's cash account balance may decline, and the Fed may slow down its balance - sheet reduction [10][12]. Inflation and Yields - US consumers' one - and five - year inflation expectations have significantly increased from January to May. Trump's tariff policies and the expansionary tax cut bill have raised medium - and long - term inflation expectations [16][18]. - Trump's tax cut bill, large - scale bond maturities, and high federal funds target rates have led to a significant increase in US medium - and long - term Treasury yields [22]. - The expectation of out - of - control Treasury supply has pushed up medium - and long - term Treasury yields, while the declining consumer - end inflation has led to an increase in medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields [25]. - The difference between long - and medium - term Treasury yields in the US is positive and expanding, mainly due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation suppressing short - and medium - term yields and concerns about fiscal deficits pushing up long - term yields [29]. Financial Market Indicators - The US OFR financial stress index decreased compared to last week, with declines in credit, stock valuation, safe - asset, and volatility indicators [32][33]. - The weekly rate of US commercial bank loans and leases decreased, with only credit - card loans showing a week - on - week increase [37]. - The US Redbook commercial retail sales' weekly annual rate decreased. As of May 17, the year - on - year growth rate was 5.4%, indicating a still - prosperous consumer industry but more price - sensitive consumers [40]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index decreased due to the increase in 15 - and 30 - year mortgage fixed rates. The number of new and existing home sales in March decreased [43]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US was 229,000, in line with expectations but higher than the previous value. The number of continued jobless claims was 1.881 million, lower than expected but higher than the previous value, indicating a still - prosperous labor - market demand [47]. International Comparison - The difference in medium - and long - term Treasury yields between the US and Germany has increased, mainly due to the ECB's interest - rate cut expectation suppressing German yields and the increase in US Treasury supply and delayed Fed interest - rate cut expectation pushing up US yields [51]. - The euro and the pound have strengthened against the US dollar, driven by concerns about US debt and reduced expectations of the BoE's interest - rate cuts [53]. Precious Metal Market - The volatility of the US gold ETF index has increased, and the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased, with a reduction in SPDR gold ETF holdings [54][59]. - The total gold inventory in COMEX and SHFE increased compared to last week [63][64]. - The premium of domestic gold futures prices is within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for gold cross - market arbitrage opportunities [68]. - The gold basis in London and COMEX is negative and within a reasonable range, and the basis between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and SHFE is negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term, light - position, low - level long - entry opportunities for the SHFE gold basis [72]. - The spreads between near - and far - month gold contracts in COMEX and SHFE are negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE gold monthly - spread arbitrage opportunities [76]. - The ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures increased, and the iShare silver ETF holdings increased [79]. - The total silver inventory in COMEX, SHFE, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased compared to last week [83]. - The premium of domestic silver futures and spot prices is within a reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for silver cross - market arbitrage opportunities [87]. - The silver basis in COMEX is negative and within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai silver basis is negative and at a relatively low level. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE silver basis arbitrage opportunities [91]. - The spreads between near - and far - month silver contracts in COMEX and Shanghai are negative and within a reasonable range. It is recommended to wait and see for SHFE silver near - and far - month contract spread arbitrage opportunities [96]. - The "gold - to - silver ratio" in London LME and US COMEX (SHFE) is much higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. Given central - bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, it is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for the "gold - to - silver ratio" on dips [99]. - The "gold - to - oil ratio" and "gold - to - copper ratio" in London and the US (Shanghai) are much higher than the 90th percentile of the past five years. Due to OPEC's oil - production increase expectation and the approaching traditional consumption off - season, it is recommended to pay attention to long - entry opportunities for these ratios on dips [102].

Group 1 - Gold has experienced significant volatility in 2023, with daily price fluctuations of $100 becoming common, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and central bank policies [1][3] - The current trading range for gold is expected to oscillate between $2950-$3500, with potential for large price swings, indicating opportunities for both long and short positions [1] - Recent trading patterns show that gold tends to rise during Asian sessions, consolidate during European sessions, and rebound during U.S. sessions, which traders should monitor closely [3][4] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, but there are signs of overbought conditions, suggesting caution against chasing prices [4] - Specific resistance levels for gold are identified at $3334-$3355, with support around $3285-$3290, indicating key price points for traders to watch [4][5] - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements without independent analysis, indicating a strong correlation between the two precious metals [7] Group 3 - U.S. stock futures are showing high volatility, with expectations of a potential downturn as they approach historical highs, influenced by recent downgrades in U.S. credit ratings [7] - Crude oil prices have shown resilience after a recent drop, with a focus on the $61 support level and potential for further gains if the $65 resistance is broken [8][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, highlighting that holding onto losing positions is always wrong, regardless of the situation [1] - Gold has experienced unprecedented volatility this year, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors [1] - The current market environment suggests that gold prices will likely oscillate between 2950-3500 or 3100-3400 in the near future, with opportunities for both long and short positions [1] Group 2 - Gold broke through the 3250 level after three days of consolidation, with a notable increase during the US trading session, reaching a high of 3295 [3] - The trading strategy involved positioning for a bullish trend, with a focus on maintaining long positions above the 3200 level, and planning to exit at a profit of around 200 dollars [6] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish as long as it stays above the 3250-55 range, with potential resistance levels identified at 3315, 3325-30, and 3350-60 [8] Group 3 - Silver is expected to follow gold's movements, with a bearish outlook on US stocks due to recent downgrades affecting market sentiment [9] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with a focus on maintaining positions until a breakout above 65 occurs, which would open further upside potential [11]

2025.05.19-05.23 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 中美贸易缓和降低短期避险需求、美联储鹰派立场支撑美元走强、全球 央行购金节奏阶段性放缓、技术面修正压力显现以及地缘风险边际收敛。 尽管中长期仍受去美元化和央行购金支撑，但短期市场需消化政策预期 与流动性拐点的影响。需关注5月20日后美联储政策路径、6月欧洲央行 降息节奏及中美贸易谈判进展，以判断黄金是否能重回上行通道。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金短期回调，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508 下方支撑：776－785，上方压力828-837。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期高位承压，建议观望。黄金主力合约2508下方支撑： 732－741，上方压力750－759。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Myst ...