Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the upward revision of US economic resilience, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuous fermentation of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the market. The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%. Gold has reached 3400 points, and copper and oil prices have closed higher. Domestically, the A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, and the bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to challenge previous highs. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating. Zinc prices are in a volatile consolidation. Lead prices are difficult to break out of the current shock pattern. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Nickel prices are driven by macro - expectations to fluctuate. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline in the long term. Steel prices are in a volatile trend. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Bean and rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range. Palm oil may decline and adjust [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][19][20][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%, with strong business investment and net exports contributing nearly 5%. The Fed's independence faces a legal test. The dollar index has fallen to 97.9, and gold has reached 3400 points. Attention is paid to the US July PCE data tonight [2] - Domestic: The A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3800 points. The bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released [3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Thursday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3476.9 per ounce. Concerns about the Fed's independence, inflation data, and interest - rate cut expectations support the rise of precious metals. They are expected to challenge previous highs, and attention is paid to the PCE data tonight [4][5] Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The downstream replenishment has slightly increased, but the aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7] Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the alumina price is under pressure and fluctuating [8] Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and the social inventory increased. The short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9][10] Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the consumption improvement is limited, and the export expectation is weakened. The lead price is difficult to break out of the current shock pattern [11] Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated. Overseas low inventory and slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar support the tin price. It is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention is paid to the pressure at previous highs [12] Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price weakened. The resource risk game continues, and the lithium price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - level dovish expectations continue, and the spot market has both positive and negative factors. The short - term fundamentals have no guidance, and the nickel price fluctuates under the influence of macro - expectations [15] Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil fluctuated. The market focuses on the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's sanctions. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a downward expectation in the long term [16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures rose and then fell. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan to continue the production reduction policy. The steel price is in a volatile trend [17][18] Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures rebounded. The supply is stable, and the demand has decreased. The post - parade replenishment expectation supports the price, and the iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean and rapeseed meal contracts fell. The new - crop export sales are 1.37 million tons. The US soybean production area has less precipitation, and the short - term bean meal may fluctuate within a range [20][21] Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell. The external oil market weakened, and the domestic oil is under pressure. The short - term palm oil may decline and adjust [22][23]

汇通财经APP讯——美元周五波动不大，但仍有望在8月对主要货币下跌约2%，原因是市场预期美联储 将在下月降息。美元指数最新报97.917，单月下跌近2%，年内累计跌幅接近10%。这一弱势表现与美国 国内政治干预央行独立性密切相关。 近期，美国总统特朗普加大了对美联储的影响力，包括试图解除美联储理事Lisa Cook的职务。Cook已 提出诉讼，称总统无权将其免职。市场担忧，美联储的政策独立性若受到侵蚀，可能导致长期利率失 真，从而削弱美元吸引力。 澳大利亚联邦银行货币策略师Carol Kong表示："如果市场认为FOMC的独立性遭到破坏，长期通胀预期 可能失去锚定，从而推动长期利率上升。" 若实际读数超过3%，将加大市场对美联储政策转向的质疑。下周五的非农就业数据则是9月会议前的另 一关键参考。 编辑观点: 整体来看，美元的疲软不仅仅反映了降息预期，更折射出市场对美联储独立性的担忧。若政治干预持续 强化，长期资金流入可能受到抑制，美元将难以在短期内恢复强势。 市场担心，若美联储持续维持过低的政策利率，可能刺激通胀走高，同时削弱外国投资者对美国国债的 需求。 K2资产管理公司研究主管George Boubour ...

周四(8月28日)亚洲时段，白银价格从38.08美元的低点反弹后回升，银价震荡上涨，欧市盘中，现货白 银行情延续上行，现报38.86美元/盎司，最高触及38.93美元/盎司，最低下探38.52美元/盎司。银价正逼 近38.90美元/盎司水平。今晚关注即将发布的美国至8月23日当周初请失业金人数。 【要闻聚焦】 纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰 威廉姆斯于周三强调了央行独立性的重要性。此前，美国总统特朗普正试 图对货币政策施加管控。 在接受采访时，这位颇具影响力的政策制定者未直接评论特朗普拟解雇美联储理事莉萨 库克的相关举 措，但明确指出了美联储在维护经济稳定方面所发挥的重要经济作用。 "就我个人而言，我曾与莉萨 库克共事——她目前是美联储理事会成员，在工作中始终秉持诚信，致力 于实现美联储的使命，"威廉姆斯表示，"我认为美联储作为央行，其独立性至关重要……历史经验表 明，具备独立性的央行能够实现低通胀，维护经济与金融稳定。" 在特朗普第二任期的第一年，他多次打破传统界限——长期以来，这一界限一直存在于准政府机构属性 的美联储与白宫、国会山的影响力之间。 特朗普曾指责美联储主席鲍威尔及其同僚未采取降息措施。此前，他还曾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under threat, and the worsening U.S. budget deficit is creating structural pressures on the dollar [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining the value of the currency [1] - Concerns have arisen in the market due to President Trump's intention to dismiss Fed Governor Cook [1] Group 2: U.S. Budget Deficit - The U.S. faces challenges regarding the sustainability of its debt [1] - Trump's tax and spending proposals may ultimately be more expensive than currently planned, as historical trends show that tax incentives are difficult to revoke [1] Group 3: Dollar Value and Market Resistance - Structural issues may weaken the long-term value of the dollar and increase structural resistance [1] - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is noted at 98.10-98.15, with significant resistance at 98.40-98.45 [1] - Short-term support for the dollar index is identified at 97.60-97.65, with significant support at 97.45-97.50 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and increased demand for safe-haven assets, driven by investor concerns over President Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On August 28, gold prices reached a five-week high, closing at $3417.07 per ounce, marking a 0.60% increase [2]. - Gold prices have been on an upward trend for three consecutive trading days, with a peak at $3420 [2]. - The gold price has broken through the significant resistance level of $3400, indicating potential for further upward movement [1][2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The dollar index fell by 0.3%, making gold more attractive to overseas buyers [2]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified, particularly due to pressure from President Trump, which may lead to expectations of quicker interest rate cuts [2][3]. - The market anticipates over an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming September meeting [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Current support levels for gold are identified at $3399 and $3408, with resistance at $3423 [3]. - Analysts suggest that if gold effectively breaks above the trend line, it could target levels around $3430-50 [3]. - The market is advised to be cautious due to the potential for significant price movements coinciding with the end of the month and week [3].

Group 1 - Gold prices retreated from a five-week high, hovering around $3410, influenced by a weaker dollar and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased safe-haven inflows [1] - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.3%, exceeding market expectations of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0% [3] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 5,000 to 229,000, but weak employment growth may push the August unemployment rate up to 4.3% [3] Group 2 - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 5.44 tons, bringing the total to 967.94 tons [4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have shown a clear upward trend since stabilizing around $3320 in mid-August, with the K-line above the 20-day moving average [6] - The MACD indicator shows expanding bullish momentum, while the RSI is around 65, suggesting that gold still has upward potential [6]

周五（8月29日）亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡走跌，目前交投于3410美元附近，随着市场继续评估美联储 独立性面临的威胁，并等待关键的通胀数据出炉，昨日黄金价格连续第三个交易日走高，尾盘金价一度 站上3420美元关口，最终收涨0.60%，收报3417.07美元/盎司，创五周新高。 美国彭博社周四报道称，美联储理事库克起诉美国总统特朗普，因为特朗普试图以涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈为 由解雇她，从而开启了一场关于美联储独立性的历史性斗争。 RJO Futures资深市场策略师Daniel Pavilonis说："我认为这在短期内有利于黄金。我预测到今年年底前 可能涨到约3700美元/盎司。" 【技术分析】 黄金目前在日线走势上继续维持在宽幅的区间震荡中，K线开始沿着短周期均线维持较好的震荡上行走 势，短期关注下3340一带的压力带。日线黄金价格在突破前期的压力带之后日内关注下有没有回踩修复 之后的二次拉升走势。 小时级别走势上目前K线走出小幅的寸头下行K线承压短周期均线维持震荡偏弱一些走势，倾向于在短 线金价走势上可能会有一定程度的调整。 4小时级别走势上目前黄金行情暂时维持在高位震荡修复，短周期均线继续维持勾头向上仍处于偏强一 ...

张尧浠：基本面因素利好交织、金价看涨新高前景加强 上交易日周四(8月28日)：国际黄金如期触及给出的看涨支撑位以及5日均线支撑后，再度反弹走强收阳，随着美联储理事库克正式起诉特朗普，市场继续 评估美联储独立性面临的威胁，再加上美联储理事沃勒表示支持美联储9月会议降息25个基点，预计未来3—6个月将进一步降息。继续推动金价走强。 目前稳于60日等众多均线支撑上方，多头动力加大，短期则有望进一步触及3348美元附近阻力目标； 虽然，现在多头动力有所减弱，有维持震荡模式走回落的行情，但就算遇阻回落，鉴于低点在不断上移，所以，如回落走低，下方60日或100日均线支 撑，也是再度看涨入场的机会，仍将等待向上攀升刷新历史高点； 如有走低或维持震荡调整格局继续震荡，下方支撑关注之前数周震荡区间的底部支撑3270美元附近，以及30周均线支撑位置3220美元附近。也是入场看涨 的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3398.17美元/盎司，先行走低于10点时段触及日内低点3384.45美元，之后走势转回升反弹，震荡上行，一直延续到美盘尾录 得日内高点3422.69美元，最终多头有所遇阻回撤，收于3416.65美元，日振幅38.2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil may shift to a volatile trend before geopolitical risks further intensify, and short - selling opportunities after the peak season should be watched [2]. - Precious metals are in a volatile trend, and a mid - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [3]. - For various metals and industrial products, their prices are influenced by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and seasonal factors, and different trading strategies are suggested accordingly [4][5][6]. - For agricultural products, their prices are affected by factors like weather, trade policies, and supply - demand expectations, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided [34][35][36]. - In the financial market, the stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks, and a style of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained; the yield curve of treasury bonds is expected to steepen [46][47]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with Brent's October contract up 0.82%. Last week, US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Before geopolitical risks further intensify, crude oil may turn to a volatile trend [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: After a sharp decline in oil prices, fuel - related futures also fell. As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales and China's bonded marine fuel filling demand decreased year - on - year, but domestic refinery production enthusiasm was also low. The overall fundamentals are relatively more positive [21]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content. Metals - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices declined. The market is still cautious about the economic performance. High - level short positions should be held [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum followed the overall decline of non - ferrous metals. It is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with resistance at the 21,000 - yuan area [5]. - **Zinc**: Fundamentally, supply increases while demand is weak. Although the short - term downside space is limited, one should wait for short - selling opportunities at high levels [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel's rebound was blocked and it fell back. The overall inventory is still high, and one should look for short - selling positions [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, both domestic and international tin prices broke through the integer - level resistance and expanded their gains. It is expected that tin prices still have the potential to rise in the short term [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate corrected, and the market trading volume shrank. It is expected to be strongly volatile in general [11]. Industrial Products - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. The short - term market sentiment led to the weakening of the futures price. One should pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures are approaching the lower limit of the volatile range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [13]. - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices were weakly volatile. The market is under negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is relatively low. The short - term price is still under pressure [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures were volatile overnight. The overall supply - demand situation is gradually weakening, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Their prices decreased during the day. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and short - term volatility is high [16][17]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Affected by the auction of imported soybeans, the price of Dalian soybean meal continued to fall. The market is cautiously bullish on Dalian soybean meal in the medium - to - long - term [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: They showed a volatile adjustment. One can consider buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term, but short - term attention should be paid to soybean policy guidance [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed sector is in a short - term volatile consolidation pattern [36]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures rebounded last night. Given the good growth of US corn and the expected domestic harvest, the futures may continue to be weakly traded at the bottom [38]. - **Hogs**: The spot and futures prices of hogs are both weak. It is expected that the hog price will remain weak in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures continued to set new lows with increased positions. One can consider buying futures contracts for the first half of next year on dips [40]. - **Cotton**: The international cotton market lacks strong positive factors and is expected to be volatile in the short term. Zhengzhou cotton should be bought on dips [41]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar has insufficient positive factors. Sugar prices are expected to remain volatile [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price increased with increased positions. The short - term price may continue to rise, but there is a lack of positive factors on the supply side in the medium - to - long - term [43]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The stock index is in a stage of considering geopolitical and economic risks. The strategy of increasing allocation to technology - growth sectors is maintained [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on August 29, 2025 [2] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers are Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is judged to be prone to rise and difficult to fall, with a support level of 78,500 yuan, as the fundamentals still support the copper price during the domestic off - peak to peak season transition, and macro - level fluctuations present buying opportunities for downstream players [10] 4. Content Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai copper prices declined due to negative macro - factors such as Trump seeking to remove Fed Governor Cook and threatening an economic war against Russia, which raised market risk - aversion. The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped to a minimum of 78,650 yuan, and the spot copper price fell 355 yuan to 7,9190 yuan. - The spot premium rose 35 yuan to 205 yuan as lower copper prices stimulated downstream purchases. Social inventories increased by 0.41 tons to 12.71 tons this week with more imports arriving. - The profit of the spot import window widened to 330 yuan, but the buying sentiment for Yangshan copper was average. The warehouse receipt premium rose 2 dollars/ton, while the bill of lading premium decreased 2 dollars/ton. - The short - term fundamentals show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas markets, with LME inventories being transferred to China. LME inventories increased slightly for two consecutive days to 15.8 tons, and the inventory increase in August was lower than expected. Attention should be paid to the potential return of COMEX inventories [10] 4.2 Industry News - Canadian mining company Hudbay Minerals restarted its copper - gold mine in Snow Lake, Manitoba on August 22 after the authorities lifted the mandatory evacuation order. The mine is expected to resume full - scale production in early September and is still expected to achieve its annual production target in 2025. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) stated that the global refined copper market had a significant surplus of 251,000 tons in the first half of the year. Mine production increased in Peru by 2.7%, in the Congo by 9.5%, and in Mongolia by 31%. Chile's production grew by 2.6%, while Indonesia's production decreased by 36%. Global refined copper production increased by 3.6% driven by a 6.2% combined growth in China and the Congo [11][12]