在地缘政治领域，尽管相关冲突地区各方已开启谈判进程，但由于各方在核心利益诉求和谈判立场上存在显著分歧，谈判前景尚不明朗。不过，谈判的启动 本身释放出通过对话解决争端的积极信号，一定程度上缓解了地缘政治紧张局势，这也对黄金的避险需求产生了抑制作用。 尽管消息面呈现出复杂多变的态势，但截至本交易周尾，黄金收盘价仍维持在3200美元/盎司上方。基于此部分市场参与者依然对黄金价格抱有乐观预期， 认为金价有望向3500美元/盎司靠拢，甚至突破这一关键价位。然而，正如秦氏金升此前分析所述，黄金价格前期的冲高主要是受到多重利好消息刺激，引 发市场集中性买盘推动。如今，随着避险情绪逐步退潮，金价出现回调属于市场的正常价值回归过程。 一、消息面分析 从宏观经济消息面维度来看，近期国际贸易局势的缓和显著削弱了黄金作为避险资产的属性。贸易双方通过积极磋商达成阶段性共识，使得全球投资者风险 偏好有所回升，黄金避险买盘随之减少。与此同时，美联储官员多次强调在货币政策调整上保持谨慎态度，明确表示短期内不急于降息，这些因素共同对黄 金价格形成了有力压制。 在日线级别上，黄金价格自3500美元/盎司高点开启的ABC三浪下跌趋势特征十分明显。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold prices is attributed to improved US-China trade negotiations and a general easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On May 16, spot gold prices fell dramatically, dropping $20 to below $3160 per ounce, with a daily decline of 2.56% [1] - New York futures gold also experienced a 2% drop, settling at $3162.00 per ounce, while London gold and COMEX gold reported similar declines [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The easing of market tensions due to positive developments in US-China trade talks has led to a significant outflow of funds from the gold market into riskier assets [3]. - Geopolitical stability is indicated by the first direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years, further enhancing market risk appetite and diminishing gold's appeal [3]. - Technical analysis shows that gold's repeated failures to break the $3200 per ounce psychological barrier led to increased selling pressure once this support level was breached [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US April CPI data showed moderate performance, dampening expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which in turn strengthened the dollar and pressured gold prices [3]. - A report from Citigroup on May 12 revised the three-month gold price target down from $3500 to $3150 per ounce, citing the easing of tariff concerns as a core reason for the price adjustment [3]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - Investors who previously bought gold at high prices are now facing significant losses, with one example showing a drop from a purchase price of 830 yuan per gram to around 758 yuan, resulting in a loss of approximately 72 yuan per gram [3]. - Some investors have successfully locked in profits by selling at high prices, while others are waiting for further declines to enter the market [3].

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have seen a drop from 830 yuan per gram to 760 yuan, highlighting the complexity of the current market dynamics driven by both safe-haven demand and speculative fervor [1] - The U.S. Treasury bonds, traditionally viewed as a safe haven, are facing increased credit risk concerns due to rising debt levels, with the 10-year Treasury yield surging 49 basis points in one week, marking the largest weekly increase [3] - The global trade outlook has worsened, with the WTO's trade barometer dropping to 95.5, the lowest since 2009, further boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2 - Speculative bubbles have rapidly expanded, with global gold ETF sizes increasing by over 30% in 2023, and some regional funds seeing growth exceeding 50% [5] - The S&P Global Gold Mining Index has risen over 50% this year, with some individual company stock prices doubling [5] - The leverage in the gold futures market reached a historical high, with 28% of long positions using more than three times leverage, indicating significant irrationality in the market [5] Group 3 - Rational investors are advised to establish a scientific valuation system, focusing on key indicators such as the scale of U.S. debt, which has surpassed $35 trillion, reflecting the stability of the dollar credit system [7] - Central bank gold purchases have provided long-term support for gold demand, with global central bank purchases reaching 387 tons in the first half of 2023, a 52% year-on-year increase [7] - The share of gold in foreign exchange reserves has risen to 15.6% in 2023, up 4.2 percentage points since 2020, further supporting gold prices [7] Group 4 - Inflation levels validate gold's anti-inflation characteristics, with historical data showing that when CPI growth exceeds 3%, gold's average annual return reaches 10.2% [9] - The dollar's performance significantly impacts gold prices, with the dollar index fluctuating from 107.3 to 103.5 in 2023, affecting gold's pricing power [11] - The ongoing de-dollarization process has seen the dollar's share in global settlement currencies drop from 72% in 2000 to 59% in 2023, diminishing its influence on gold pricing [11] Group 5 - Historical cycles of gold prices indicate that it plays a crucial role during global monetary system restructurings, with significant price increases observed during past bull markets [11][13] - The current environment suggests a "high volatility, slow bull" characteristic for the gold market, with structural support from central bank purchases and de-dollarization trends [14] - The World Bank predicts a 25% increase in global gold demand by 2030, with emerging markets contributing 65% of this growth, providing ongoing momentum for gold prices [14]

截至16日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1353.87点，较前一交易日下跌13.57点，跌幅0.99%； 中证商品期货指数收报1874.36点，较前一交易日下跌18.09点，跌幅0.96%。 金银小幅反弹供应收缩支撑硅铁小幅收涨 情绪转弱背景下，国内商品市场16日普遍走弱，尾盘仅硅铁、金银、沥青等品种小幅收涨。 在隔夜海外贵金属大幅反弹的带动下，国内金银16日小幅跟涨，但汇率因素和当日亚洲时段海外金银价 格回落，使得沪金沪银涨幅受限。短期内，避险需求和美联储货币政策走向的博弈，成为影响贵金属波 动的重要因素。但避险情绪减弱、美联储在降息上的谨慎态度，均将在短期内继续限制贵金属的反弹空 间。 虽然黑色系商品整体走弱，但硅铁供应收缩利多仍在发酵，这支撑硅铁期价16日小幅收涨0.92%，成为 当日领涨品种。Mysteel公布的数据显示，截至5月15日当周，全国187家独立锰硅企业和136家独立硅铁 企业开工率均环比下滑，日均产量不同程度下降，这表明硅铁产区减产仍在持续，进而有利于缓解铁合 金供应压力。不过，钢厂高炉开工率环比下降，铁水产量高位回落，市场对硅锰供需仍偏宽松的担忧不 减，或仍将构成硅锰价格进一步走高 ...

通胀风险仍存，黄金避险需求未消！现货黄金昨日反弹逾百美元，今日再次回落，近期的调整或给多头 带来中长期入场机会？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices, which fell by 6% from April 22 to May 14, has raised concerns among investors and consumers, despite a significant increase in gold purchases earlier in the year [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold fund transaction volume reached approximately 190 billion, with a 6% price drop during the same period [1]. - Gold stocks experienced a more significant decline, dropping over 8% [1]. - Retail sales of gold and jewelry increased by 11% year-on-year, with gold bar and coin purchases rising by 30% [3]. Group 2: Regional Disparities - Retail sales of gold and jewelry in Beijing grew by 29% year-on-year, while Guangzhou saw a 15% increase, both exceeding the national average [4]. - In contrast, Shanghai's retail sales for the same category declined by 9% [4]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The decline in gold prices is attributed to reduced safe-haven demand, a stronger US dollar, decreased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, profit-taking by speculators, and a slowdown in central bank gold purchases [6][10]. - Despite the current price drop, it remains above the levels seen in the first quarter, indicating that investors are not yet at a loss [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Research institutions express caution, noting an increase in hedging by gold producers and a decline in recycled gold after eight consecutive quarters of growth, suggesting a higher likelihood of price adjustments [12]. - However, there is optimism regarding the long-term support for gold prices due to the ongoing contraction of US dollar credit [12].

金价，大幅波动！ 5月15日，金价剧烈波动，现货黄金盘中一度跌近1.8%并跌破3130美元/盎司。不过随后，金价出现V型大反 弹，截至发稿时，现货黄金涨1%报3209美元/盎司，单日振幅高达2.8%。 有分析指出，随着中美经贸会谈取得超预期进展，全球贸易紧张局势大幅缓解，投资者的避险需求下降，黄金 的吸引力也随之降低。未来，美国关税仍有进一步下降空间，市场风险偏好或进一步回升，贵金属仍面临一定 的调整。 日前，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特透露，美国总统特朗普从中东返回美国后，将宣布一项新的贸易 协议。 来看详细报道！ 周三，华尔街对冲基金大佬、绿光资本（Greenlight Capital）的创始人兼总裁David Einhorn重申看涨黄金立 场，并直言这轮贵金属行情远未结束。这位以做空雷曼兄弟闻名的对冲基金经理强调，黄金正成为衡量美元信 用体系的"终极标尺"。 金价盘中异动 5月15日盘中，金价一度大幅跳水，现货黄金最低下探至3120美元/盎司，日内跌幅一度接近1.8%；COMEX黄 金期货一度跌超2%，最低触及3123美元/盎司。 不过，反弹也来的很快，金价随后持续攀升，完全收复了失地。截至券商中 ...

Group 1 - The easing of China-US trade relations and positive signals from the Geneva trade talks have led to a rebound in global stock markets, reducing the safe-haven appeal of gold [2] - Geopolitical risks have also diminished with signs of peace talks in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and a ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan, further weakening gold's demand as a safe haven [2] - US economic data shows resilience, and hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve reinforce expectations for high interest rates, which diminishes the attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset [2] Group 2 - The US dollar index has rebounded, surpassing the 101 mark, which typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices due to their negative correlation [2] - The spot gold price opened at 3249.83 CNY/oz and experienced a significant pullback, reaching a low of 3168.06 CNY/oz, indicating strong bearish momentum [4] - The daily closing price fell below the 20-day moving average and broke through previous key low points, signaling a bearish trend [4] Group 3 - Silver opened at 32.894 CNY/oz and followed gold's downward trend, but has not yet broken through its recent trading range, indicating a weaker performance compared to gold [6] - The closing price for silver fell below the 20-day moving average, suggesting a bearish direction [6] - Current price movements for silver are within a significant oscillation range, with a focus on the support level at 31.700 CNY/oz [6]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 中线行情： 4 月初特朗普对等关税措施远超市场预期，引发全球市场剧震并打压包括黄 金在内的全球金融资产；但因特朗普恃强凌弱蛮横无理反复无常损害美元信用引 发跨国资金抛离美国资产行为，来自全球贸易货币体系重组、美国和全球经济衰 退前景、以及美国金融市场波动性的三重避险需求推动 4 月 22 日伦敦金价突破 3500 美元/盎司；虽然部分多头获利平仓叠加特朗普政府安抚市场言论使得金价 有所回调，但整体看中级上涨趋势仍保持良好。我们判断特朗普以美国优先原则 推动国内外改革的决心并没有根本性变化 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the gold market continues to experience a downward trend despite a weak US dollar and expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy [1][2] - The market is currently influenced by the lack of significant economic data and a retreat in safe-haven demand due to recent statements from Trump regarding tariff policies [1] - Geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential diplomatic negotiations, are also affecting market sentiment [1] Group 2 - On Wednesday, the gold market showed a bearish trend, breaking below the key support level of $3200 per ounce, indicating strong downward momentum [2][4] - Technical indicators such as the MACD are showing expanding bearish momentum, while the RSI is approaching oversold territory, suggesting a potential for short-term technical corrections [2] - The suggested trading strategy is to sell on rebounds in the $3195-$3200 range, with a stop-loss at $3203 and targets set at $3180-$3160 [4]