Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a continued rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.0%[4] - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, 2025, marking a pause in quantitative tightening[4] - There were two dissenting votes during the meeting, indicating internal disagreement on the decision[4] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The Fed noted that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, which remains low[4] - Inflation is acknowledged to be at a high level, with recent data suggesting a marginal easing in inflation pressures[6] - The ongoing government shutdown and recent layoffs in the tech sector contribute to increased economic downside risks[6] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq index rose by 0.55%[7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose above 4.0% after the announcement[7] - The probability of a rate cut in December is now over 60%, according to CME futures pricing[7]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision for a rate cut in December is not guaranteed and may be influenced by uncertainties such as a potential government shutdown [6][8] - Traders have reduced their bets on a December rate cut, with the probability now at 65%, down from 90% prior to the meeting [7] Group 2 - Powell noted that a government shutdown could impact economic activity and that many American consumers remain dissatisfied with inflation [8] - The Fed's FOMC statement announced the end of balance sheet reduction on December 1, with Powell stating that market pressures necessitate immediate adjustments to balance sheet operations [9] - Following Powell's comments, U.S. stock markets experienced a downturn, with notable movements in tech stocks such as Nvidia and Apple, while Meta's stock fell over 8% after disappointing earnings [12] Group 3 - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 3.59%, and the dollar index rose, while onshore RMB depreciated against the dollar [13] - Bitcoin saw a decline, with approximately 130,000 traders liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling around $558 million in liquidations [14][15] - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive as the Fed's rate cuts are expected to lower global financing costs and improve market conditions, potentially driving capital flows into these markets [16]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the interest rate range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% with a 10-2 vote, indicating significant internal disagreement among committee members regarding future rate actions [1][4] - Fed Chairman Powell acknowledged the divisions within the committee, stating that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [1][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace, with employment growth slowing and a slight increase in the unemployment rate, although it remains low [2][3] - The recent government shutdown is expected to have a lasting impact on economic activity, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating a GDP loss of at least $7 billion due to the shutdown [2] Group 3: Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with companies announcing significant layoffs, including Amazon (14,000 jobs), Paramount (1,000 jobs), and UPS (48,000 jobs) [3][4] - Powell noted that many companies are reducing hiring or initiating layoffs, often citing the impact of artificial intelligence [4] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Powell indicated that current inflation levels are close to the 2% target when excluding tariff impacts, estimating that tariffs contribute approximately 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points to core PCE inflation [4] - The Fed plans to end quantitative tightening on December 1, 2023, and will reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury bills [5][6] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - Despite the government shutdown, economic growth is expected to accelerate, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting a near 4% growth rate for the current quarter [7] - Businesses are cautious about future investments and hiring due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, with many expressing concerns about the economic outlook [8]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75%-4.00%, following a similar cut in September, aligning with market expectations [1] - There is a growing internal division within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with some members supporting a more aggressive rate cut while others advocate for maintaining the current rate [1] - Economic indicators show a slight increase in unemployment but remain low, and the September CPI was more moderate than expected, suggesting a continued moderate expansion of economic activity [1] Group 2 - Following Powell's statements, traders reduced the probability of a rate cut in December from 90% to 71%, leading to a decline in major U.S. stock indices [4] - The Federal Reserve will officially end its quantitative tightening process in December, with the redemption principal of mortgage-backed securities being reinvested into short-term government bonds [4] - Powell indicated that additional tariffs could raise inflation by up to 0.4 percentage points, although the impact is expected to be temporary and will take time to affect consumers [4]

北京时间10月30日凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议。 对于政府停摆的影响，鲍威尔认为，其对经济活动的抑制作用将持续存在，但这些影响应会在停摆结束 后逐步消退。美国国会预算办公室（CBO）周三预测，截至本月底，这场持续一个月的政府停摆已导 致美国国内生产总值（GDP）至少减少70亿美元。国会预算办公室主任斯瓦格尔（Phillip Swagel）表 示，若停摆持续，这一经济损失规模还将进一步扩大。 针对就业市场，鲍威尔表示，现有信息均指向劳动力市场正趋于疲软。"尽管9月官方就业数据已延迟发 布，但现有证据表明，当前裁员与招聘活动仍维持在较低水平；同时，在这个活力有所下降、整体略显 疲软的劳动力市场中，家庭对就业机会的感知以及企业对招聘难度的感受均在持续下滑。近几个月来， 就业市场面临的下行风险似乎已有所上升。美联储正密切关注裁员公告。许多公司正在谈论经济分化态 势。低收入消费者正在挣扎，在经济呈现K型复苏这一点上，确实存在某种可能性。" 值得注意的是，本周早些时候，亚马逊宣布将在全公司范围内裁员1.4万人；周三，媒体巨头派拉蒙 （Paramount）也表示将在包括哥伦比亚广播公司新闻部（CBS News）在内的多个 ...

在新闻发布会伊始，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，政府停摆前获取的数据显示，经济活动增长轨迹可能略强 于此前预期，这主要得益于消费支出的强劲表现。 对于政府停摆的影响，鲍威尔认为，其对经济活动的抑制作用将持续存在，但这些影响应会在停摆结束 后逐步消退。美国国会预算办公室（CBO）周三预测，截至本月底，这场持续一个月的政府停摆已导 致美国国内生产总值（GDP）至少减少70亿美元。国会预算办公室主任斯瓦格尔（Phillip Swagel）表 示，若停摆持续，这一经济损失规模还将进一步扩大。 针对就业市场，鲍威尔表示，现有信息均指向劳动力市场正趋于疲软。"尽管9月官方就业数据已延迟发 布，但现有证据表明，当前裁员与招聘活动仍维持在较低水平；同时，在这个活力有所下降、整体略显 疲软的劳动力市场中，家庭对就业机会的感知以及企业对招聘难度的感受均在持续下滑。近几个月来， 就业市场面临的下行风险似乎已有所上升。美联储正密切关注裁员公告。许多公司正在谈论经济分化态 势。低收入消费者正在挣扎，在经济呈现K型复苏这一点上，确实存在某种可能性。" 值得注意的是，本周早些时候，亚马逊宣布将在全公司范围内裁员1.4万人；周三，媒体巨头派拉蒙 （ ...

本文字数：2781，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 北京时间10月30日凌晨2点，美联储公布利率决议。 联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）以10-2的方式决定下调利率区间25个基点至3.75%-4.00%。反对票中，美联 储理事米兰希望降息50个基点，而堪萨斯联储主席施密德倾向于按兵不动。美联储主席鲍威尔承认，委员会内部 分歧较大，12月降息并非已成定局。 受此影响，美股盘中跳水，国际金价走弱。 美联储内部分歧 决议声明称，现有指标表明，经济活动一直以温和的速度扩张。今年就业增长放缓，失业率略有上升，但截至8 月仍处于较低水平；最近的指标与这些情况相符。通货膨胀率自今年早些时候以来有所上升，仍处于略高的水 平。 2025.10. 30 结束量化紧缩 美联储在政策声明中决定于12月1日结束量化紧缩（QT)。委员会同时计划调整投资组合结构——将到期抵押贷 款支持证券（MBS）的本金收益重新投资于短期国债（Treasury bills）。 在新闻发布会伊始，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，政府停摆前获取的数据显示，经济活动增长轨迹可能略强于此前预 期，这主要得益于消费支出的强劲表现。 对于政府停摆的影响，鲍威尔认 ...

The Federal Reserve said Wednesday (Oct. 29) that it will halt the reduction of assets on its balance sheet on Dec. 1.By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins required.“Our long-stated plan has been to stop balance s ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision for a rate cut in December is uncertain, with current expectations for a rate cut probability at 65%, down from 90% prior to the meeting [6] - Powell mentioned that a government shutdown could impact economic activity and the upcoming December meeting [6] Group 2 - The Fed's FOMC statement revealed that the asset purchase program will end on December 1, with Powell noting that market pressures necessitate immediate adjustments to the balance sheet operations [7] - Following Powell's comments, U.S. stock markets experienced a downturn, with only the Nasdaq showing a slight increase [8] - Notable performances in the tech sector included Nvidia rising approximately 3% to a market cap of $5 trillion, while Apple surpassed a $4 trillion market cap for the first time [10] Group 3 - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 3.59%, and the dollar index saw a short-term increase, while the onshore RMB depreciated against the dollar [11] - Bitcoin experienced a decline, with approximately 129,165 traders liquidated in the last 24 hours, totaling around $558 million in liquidations [12][13] - Analysts suggest that the recent rate cuts may enhance the attractiveness of emerging markets, potentially leading to improved global financial conditions and lower global financing costs [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 and a cumulative reduction of 150 basis points in this cycle [1][3]. Market Impact - U.S. stock markets are expected to continue rising, with potential volatility before the end of the year; foreign investors anticipate strong structural opportunities in the A-share market, particularly favoring the technology growth sector [6]. - The expectation of rate cuts supports gold prices, although excessive speculation has been noted, suggesting investors should be cautious of potential pullbacks [7]. - The status of U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" is under scrutiny, with bond yields likely to be suppressed [7]. - The U.S. dollar index faces risks from uncertainties regarding tariffs, government shutdowns, and credit pressures, likely leading to a continued weak trend [7]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the December rate decision is uncertain, with a 65% probability of a rate cut, down from 90% prior to the meeting [9]. - Powell noted that the government shutdown could impact economic activity and the upcoming rate decision, emphasizing the need for caution in the absence of data [9]. Stock Market Performance - Major tech stocks showed strong performance, with NVIDIA rising approximately 3% and surpassing a market cap of $5 trillion; Apple also closed above $4 trillion for the first time [12]. - Meta Platforms saw a significant drop of over 8% in after-hours trading due to disappointing earnings [12]. Bond and Currency Movements - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 3.59%, while the dollar index rose briefly, and the onshore RMB depreciated against the dollar [13]. - Spot gold prices fell below $1,930 per ounce [13]. Emerging Markets - The current rate cut is viewed as a preventive measure, with expectations for a dual bull market in stocks and bonds if economic data supports a soft landing; however, persistent inflation or a sharp decline in the job market could increase asset volatility [17]. - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields is expected to improve global financial market conditions, driving down global financing costs and enhancing the attractiveness of emerging market assets [18].