1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格上涨，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费坚挺，印尼突查镍矿并有所封查，引发对镍 矿的看涨情绪。镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚挺，不锈钢库存继续回落，金九银十去库存良好。中性偏 多 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格14012.5，基差942.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：96349，-600，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、结论：不锈钢2511：震荡偏强运行。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落，高位震荡运行。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，印尼突然查矿引发矿端利多， 看后期是否会有实质性的情况。镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线进一步上移。不锈钢库存继续回落，金九银 十去库存良好。新能源汽车产销数据 ...

Market Overview - The average transaction price of glass in the Shihe region is around 1140 yuan per ton [1] Supply and Demand - As of September 11, 2025, the national float glass daily production is 160,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% compared to four days prior. The total float glass production for the week (September 5-11, 2025) is 1,121,200 tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.38% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.49% [2] - The total inventory of sample enterprises for float glass is 61.583 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 1.467 million heavy boxes or 2.33% from the previous period, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.94%. The inventory days are 26.3 days, down by 0.6 days from the last period [2] Analysis - The overall sentiment in the glass market has improved, with industrial products stabilizing and rebounding. Glass is sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations, leading to significant price rebounds. Last week saw good transaction volumes in the spot market and a reduction in inventory [3] - News regarding the transition to clean energy production lines in the Shihe region has triggered price increases, although the specific timeline for this transition is yet to be determined. The expected downtime is limited, and there are plans for some production restarts in the future [3] - Current inventory levels among manufacturers in the Shihe region are rising, and there has been no significant reduction in midstream inventory. Although there is a seasonal improvement in deep processing orders, demand remains weak, and the low operating rates persist without clear signs of peak season characteristics [3] - In the medium to long term, the industry is at the bottom of the real estate cycle, with a decrease in completions. The industry will need to clear excess capacity to resolve the current overcapacity issue. Monitoring the implementation of regional policies and the performance of downstream stocking ahead of the peak season is essential [3] Operational Recommendations - The current recommendation for the glass market is to adopt a wait-and-see approach [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government reiterates the goal of stabilizing the real estate market, emphasizing the need to release demand for improvement through various measures, with specific policies being implemented in cities like Suzhou [1] Group 1: Real Estate Performance in Jiangsu - In the first eight months of 2025, the top 20 real estate companies in Jiangsu had a sales threshold of 3.439 billion yuan and a sales area threshold of 14,220 square meters [2][5] - The top three companies by sales revenue were: 1. China Merchants Shekou with 8.825 billion yuan 2. Huafa Group with 8.214 billion yuan 3. Greentown China with 7.739 billion yuan [2][3] - In terms of sales area, the top three were: 1. China Merchants Shekou with 340,800 square meters 2. Poly Developments with 321,700 square meters 3. New Town Holdings with 290,700 square meters [2][3] Group 2: Local Real Estate Companies - Jiangsu's local real estate companies showed strong performance, with the top 20 local firms having a sales threshold of 1.770 billion yuan and a sales area threshold of 7,440 square meters [5] - Jinji Real Estate led in sales revenue with 5.266 billion yuan, while New Town Holdings topped in sales area with 290,700 square meters [5][6] Group 3: Land Market Overview - In the first eight months of 2025, Jiangsu launched 442 residential land plots, with a total planned construction area of 26.071 million square meters, and successfully sold 425 plots with a total area of 26.257 million square meters [7] - The average floor price across the province was 6,484 yuan per square meter, with August seeing an increase to 6,517 yuan per square meter [7][9] Group 4: Future Outlook - With the goal of stabilizing the market, new supportive policies are expected to be introduced, and the market is anticipated to become more active during the traditional peak sales season of September and October [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend. In the financial derivatives market, stock index futures are oscillating and differentiating, with the new - energy sector being structurally strong; treasury bond futures are affected by weak fundamentals and strong risk preferences; precious metals are rising due to concerns about the Fed's independence; and container shipping futures are expected to decline. In the commodity futures market, different metal and agricultural product futures have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, and corresponding investment suggestions are given based on these [2][5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed oscillating differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose. The new - energy sector was hot, and financial stocks adjusted. Most of the four major stock index futures contracts declined. The base difference of the 09 contracts is rapidly repairing. The market is affected by domestic economic data and overseas news. The operation suggestion is to consider the option double - buying strategy if the volatility continues to decline [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed up across the board, but the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose at the end of the session. The weak economic data in August is favorable for the bond market, but the strong risk preference suppresses long - term bonds. The operation suggestion is to wait and see, pay attention to the capital situation and whether incremental credit - easing policies are introduced [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose. Before the FOMC meeting, Trump's call for a sharp interest - rate cut and the possible confirmation of a cabinet member as a voting member have increased concerns about the Fed's independence and credibility, weakening the US dollar and boosting the prices of precious metals. The future outlook is that the Fed's policy path may suppress the US dollar index, and the political turmoil in Europe and the US has increased the demand for precious metals as a hedge [8][9][10]. Container Shipping (European Lines) - The spot prices of container shipping continue to decline slowly. The SCFIS European line index and the Shanghai - Europe freight rate have decreased. The global container capacity has increased year - on - year. The futures price fell, and the spot price has a downward impact on the futures. It is expected that the spot will continue to decline slowly, and the futures price will also decline. The operation suggestion is to short the 10 - contract unilaterally or conduct a 12 - 10 spread arbitrage [11][12]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper has risen, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 9 - month interest - rate cut is almost certain, which boosts copper prices in the short term. The fundamental situation is "weak reality + stable expectation". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 79500 - 82000 yuan/ton [13][14][16]. - **Alumina**: The spot price has declined, and the supply pattern is gradually loose. The futures price shows a low - level oscillating trend, presenting a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton, and short positions can be considered in the medium term if the cost support weakens [17][18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price has declined. The supply has increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand is in the process of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate around the peak - season expectation and the actual consumption fulfillment. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20600 - 21400 yuan/ton [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase slightly in September, and the demand is expected to improve marginally. The cost is strongly supported, and the price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton, and a spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: The spot price is stable. The supply of zinc ore is loose, and the production of refined zinc is expected to increase. The demand is in the peak season, but the domestic and overseas markets are differentiated. The price is expected to oscillate, and the operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 21800 - 22800 yuan/ton [25][26][29]. - **Tin**: The spot price has declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain high and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The spot price has risen slightly. The macro - environment is improving, and the supply of refined nickel is at a relatively high level. The demand is stable in some areas and weak in others. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 120000 - 125000 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price has risen. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the peak - season expectation but has not been significantly released. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 12800 - 13400 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price is stable. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is optimistic. The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to be strong and oscillate. The operation suggestion is that the main contract fluctuates between 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [40][41][43]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The spot price has risen. The cost is affected by factors such as coking coal and iron ore. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is in a seasonal decline. The price is expected to rise, and the pressure levels for rebar and hot - rolled coil are 3350 yuan/ton and 3500 yuan/ton respectively [44][46][47]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot price has declined slightly. The supply has increased, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of slight change. The price is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and the operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [48][49][50]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, while the spot price is oscillating weakly. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand has increased due to the recovery of iron - water production. The inventory is in a state of medium - level decline. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [51][52][53]. - **Coke**: The futures price has rebounded strongly, and the second - round price cut by steel mills has been implemented. The supply is increasing, and the demand has support. The inventory is in a state of medium - level increase. The operation suggestion is to go long on the 2601 contract unilaterally and conduct a spread arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke [54][55][57]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The domestic soybean meal spot price has declined. The US soybean supply is strong and the demand is weak. The Brazilian soybean premium is strong, which supports the domestic cost. The domestic soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level. The price of the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3150 yuan/ton [58][59][61]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. The breeding - end slaughter has increased, and the demand is slowly recovering. The supply recovery pattern is clear, and the price is expected to continue to bottom - out [62][63].

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is expected to experience a recovery due to easing supply pressures starting from mid to late September, driven by the upcoming consumption peak season and new MTO production capacity coming online [1] Supply Dynamics - Domestic methanol production has faced bottlenecks, with overall capacity utilization at a high of 84.58%, limiting further increases in output [2] - The resumption of production in various regions has been gradual, with a total daily output not exceeding 10,000 tons in September [2] - Iran's gas supply risks are anticipated to significantly impact methanol imports, as the government prioritizes residential gas supply over industrial use starting in October [3] Demand Factors - The "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak is expected to improve traditional downstream demand, particularly in the real estate and textile sectors, which will drive methanol demand [4] - The MTO industry is projected to be the main driver of methanol demand in Q4, with both existing facilities restarting and new capacity coming online [4][5] - The Shandong Lianhong New Materials' 1 million tons/year MTO project is set to be a highlight in Q4, requiring external methanol sourcing [4] Market Outlook - The combination of recovering demand from traditional sectors and the MTO industry's growth is expected to alleviate supply pressures in the methanol market, leading to a potential price rebound [5]

Report Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Overall, influenced by factors such as the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, the weakening dollar index, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the seasonal characteristics of the industry, most non - ferrous metals are expected to show a short - term strong or oscillating upward trend, but each metal has its own influencing factors and characteristics [2][4][6]. Summary by Metal Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated upward, with LME copper rising 1.24% to $10189/ton and SHFE copper settling at 81380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased [2]. - Supply: Overseas copper mines face certain disruptions, and domestic supply surplus pressure is not significant [2]. - Demand: Downstream procurement sentiment weakened, and the traditional peak season is ongoing [2]. - Price Outlook: Expected to oscillate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 80600 - 82000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 10050 - 10300 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with LME aluminum rising 0.13% to $2704/ton and SHFE aluminum settling at 21060 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased [4]. - Supply: Domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Demand: Downstream is in the traditional peak season, and aluminum exports are resilient [4]. - Price Outlook: Expected to continue to strengthen, with the SHFE aluminum main contract running in the range of 20960 - 21200 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2660 - 2730 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices broke through the oscillation range and trended upward. SHFE lead index rose 0.76% to 17173 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2014/ton [6]. - Supply: Lead concentrate inventory accumulates slowly, and the supply of raw materials remains tight [6]. - Demand: Downstream battery inventory decreased, and the operating rate improved marginally [6]. - Price Outlook: Expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Zinc - SHFE zinc index fell slightly by 0.01% to 22316 yuan/ton, while LME zinc 3S rose to $2960/ton. Domestic social inventory increased [7][8]. - Supply: Zinc concentrate inventory increased, and the processing fee showed differentiation [8]. - Demand: The industry data is strengthening marginally [9]. - Price Outlook: Expected to be strong in the short term [9]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated. Supply decreased significantly, and demand improved marginally [10]. - Supply: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the output of domestic refined tin is expected to decline by 29.89% in September [10]. - Demand: New energy and AI sectors are booming, and traditional consumption is gradually improving [10]. - Price Outlook: Expected to oscillate strongly [10]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated, and the spot market transaction was not significantly improved [11]. - Supply: The supply of nickel iron increased limitedly, and the cost of refined nickel was under pressure [11]. - Demand: The demand for nickel iron from stainless steel mills is expected to increase [11]. - Price Outlook: In the short term, the price may decline further, but in the long term, it is supported by policies and has limited downside space. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [11]. Carbonate Lithium - The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased. The demand expectation is optimistic, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly. The reference range for the GZCE carbonate lithium 2511 contract is 71000 - 74600 yuan/ton [13]. Alumina - The alumina index rose 0.69% to 2935 yuan/ton. The supply is in an over - capacity pattern, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the domestic main contract AO2601 running in the range of 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.93% to 13070 yuan/ton, and social inventory decreased. The raw material price increased, and it is recommended to be bullish on stainless steel [17][18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The AD2511 contract fell 0.48% to 20545 yuan/ton, and inventory increased slightly. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to remain high, with the AD2511 contract running in the range of 20450 - 20650 yuan/ton [20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that both coking coal and coke prices have surged over 4% due to multiple factors, including production halts and rising expectations of demand during the traditional peak season [1][2] - A coal mine in Shanxi province has halted production, with a capacity of 1.2 million tons and a normal daily output of approximately 3,000 tons, contributing to supply concerns [1] - The recovery in iron and steel production has led to increased demand for coking coal and coke, with the national coking plant operating rate reaching 75.92%, the highest level this year [1][2] Group 2 - Despite a slight recovery in the coal production, coal inventories have decreased by 13.56 million tons to 254.52 million tons, driven by rapid recovery in downstream steel production [2] - The overall demand for steel remains weak, with apparent consumption of the five major steel products at 8.43 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 459,400 tons [2] - The profitability of steel mills is under pressure due to high production and low demand, with current profits for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils near breakeven [2][3] Group 3 - The market for finished steel products has not recovered as quickly as expected, with overall demand still insufficient despite some recovery in export volumes [3] - Coking plants have reduced their inventory levels to 8.84 million tons, with coking coal inventory days dropping below 10 days, indicating a shift towards consumption rather than replenishment [3] - Future price trends for coking coal may not be overly pessimistic, as potential supply reduction policies and macroeconomic factors could provide support [4]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of coking coal and coke have surged over 4% due to multiple factors, including production halts in coal mines and rising expectations of reduced competition in the market [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A coal mine in Shanxi Province has halted production since September 14, with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons and a normal daily output of approximately 3,000 tons [1] - The recovery in iron and steel production, along with pre-holiday inventory replenishment expectations, is expected to lead to weaker coking coal supply compared to the same period last year [1] - As of early September, the operating rate of coking enterprises reached 75.92%, the highest level this year, with daily iron output recovering to over 2.4 million tons [1][2] Group 2: Market Conditions - Despite a traditional peak season for steel demand, the overall demand remains weak, with apparent consumption of the five major steel products at 8.43 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 459,400 tons [2] - Steel mills are experiencing compressed profits due to high production and low demand, with current profits for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils near breakeven [2] - Coking enterprises have seen a continuous decline in inventory over the past five weeks, totaling a decrease of 1.1981 million tons since early August [2][3] Group 3: Future Price Outlook - Although coking coal demand may not see significant growth, there is no need for pessimism regarding fourth-quarter prices, as supply reduction policies may be introduced [4] - The price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal is currently low, and a new round of inventory replenishment for thermal coal is expected after mid-October, which could support coking coal prices [4] - Anticipated macroeconomic benefits, including a new round of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the release of the "14th Five-Year Plan," may further support coking coal prices in the fourth quarter [4]

昨日，焦煤和焦炭在多种因素的影响下，期价双双大涨超4%。 "煤矿端停产消息影响叠加'反内卷'预期升温，共同推动双焦盘面大幅反弹。"东海期货黑色金属首席研 究员刘慧峰说。 期货日报记者在采访中获悉，山西省吕梁中阳一座煤矿于9月14日停产，复产时间暂不确定。该煤矿核 定产能120万吨，正常日产原煤约3000吨。 海通期货黑色分析师魏亚茹告诉记者，受铁水产量大幅回升及节前补库预期的影响，且在供应方面，下 半年煤矿超产检查预计存在影响，焦煤供应大概率弱于去年同期，叠加"金九银十"旺季来临，焦煤和焦 炭期货盘面在各种利好预期的影响下，出现了大幅上涨的行情。 记者发现，焦炭的第二轮提降周一已经全面落地，这比预期速度要快一些。9月初焦企复产速度较快， 截至上期数据显示，全国焦企开工率为75.92%，这是今年以来焦企开工的最高水平。下游铁水复产速 度也较为迅速，目前铁水日产量已经快速恢复至240万吨以上。 刘慧峰告诉记者，上周基本面有一定好转，9月初北方部分产区煤矿开始复产，523家煤矿炼焦精煤日产 量72.84万吨，环比回升3.53万吨。不过，煤矿库存并未出现累积，而是环比下降了13.56万吨，至254.52 万吨，这主要 ...

Group 1 - Coking coal and coke prices surged over 4% due to multiple factors, including production halts and rising expectations of supply constraints [1] - A coal mine in Shanxi province ceased operations on September 14, with an uncertain resumption timeline, affecting a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and a daily output of approximately 3,000 tons [1] - The recovery in iron and steel production, along with pre-holiday stockpiling expectations, is expected to lead to weaker coking coal supply compared to the same period last year [1][2] Group 2 - The operating rate of coking enterprises reached 75.92%, the highest level this year, driven by rapid recovery in downstream iron production [1] - Despite the traditional peak demand season for steel, overall steel demand remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 45.94 million tons in apparent consumption of five major steel products [2] - Steel mills are experiencing compressed profits due to high production and low demand, limiting the potential for further increases in iron production [2][3] Group 3 - Coking enterprises have begun to slow down their inventory replenishment, focusing more on consumption, with coking coal inventories dropping to 8.83 million tons [3] - The current high levels of iron production may limit support for steel prices, which in turn could suppress raw material prices [3] - Future price trends for coking coal may not be overly pessimistic, as potential supply reduction policies could emerge in the fourth quarter [4]