Core Viewpoint - Singapore's retail sales showed a year-on-year increase of 1.4% and a month-on-month increase of 1.0% in May, marking one of the strongest monthly performances of the year, driven primarily by a rebound in automobile sales, although non-automotive retail remains weak [1][2]. Group 1: Retail Sales Performance - The increase in retail sales was largely attributed to a significant rebound in automobile sales, which rose by 10.4% year-on-year, supported by an increase in the Certificate of Entitlement (COE) quota [1]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales remained flat year-on-year in May, marking the lowest level since February, with a growth of only 0.8% in April [1]. - Non-essential consumer sectors are still experiencing declines, with clothing and footwear sales down 5.3% year-on-year, and department store sales down 3.9% [1]. Group 2: Monthly and Yearly Trends - The month-on-month growth of 1.0% in May was almost entirely driven by automobile sales; without this segment, overall retail sales would have declined by 0.6% [2]. - Year-to-date retail sales growth for the first five months of 2025 is at 1.0%, lower than the growth rates of 1.4% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2023, indicating a sluggish retail environment [2]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Factors - The employment market is under pressure, with only 2,400 net new jobs added in Q1 2025, significantly lower than the 7,700 jobs added in Q4 2024, and the unemployment rate increased from 1.9% to 2.1% [2][3]. - Consumer confidence is further impacted by a decrease in companies planning to raise wages, dropping to 21.2% from 21.7% [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The retail sector is expected to face growth challenges in the second half of the year, despite potential short-term boosts from government-issued vouchers aimed at stimulating domestic demand [3]. - Global policy risks, particularly the potential for unilateral tariffs from the U.S. on Singapore, could further strain the retail environment and consumer confidence [3].

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam's retail sales growth rate for June is reported at 8.3%, a decrease from the previous value of 10.20% [1] Group 1 - The retail sales growth rate indicates a slowdown in consumer spending in Vietnam [1] - The previous year's growth rate was significantly higher at 10.20%, suggesting a decline in retail performance [1]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 展望 6 月及二季度，经济或呈现低波运行特征。 首先，从 GDP 数据来看，受益于国内的两新政策、出口 的韧性，生产端保持较快增长。预计 2 季度全部工业生产增速 5.9% 左右，预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3% 左右，接近 1 季度的 5.4% 。其次，受益于政府债发行的前值，社融增速稳中有升，预计 6 月末抬升至 8.8% 左右。再次，市场较为关注的出口数据，增速或边际放缓，但仍有韧性，预计 6 月出口同比在 3.5% 左右。 后续来看，关注重心在可能带来经济走势出现变化的几个方向。包括美国与各国的关税谈判进展、地产的 库存去化、"反内卷"在供给端的约束等。 报告摘要 一、 GDP ：预计 2 季度 GDP 增速在 5.3% 左右。 主要原因来看： 1 ）受益于设备更新、以旧换新、出口韧性，工业生产在 2 季度维持偏强态势。预计 2 季 度全部工业（规上 + 规下）增速在 5.9% 左右。 2 ）受益于以旧换新，零售环节增速继续回升，预计批发 零售业 ...

Core Insights - Vietnam's retail sales in June increased by 8.3% year-on-year, a decrease from the previous value of 10.2% [1] Group 1 - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales indicates a slowdown in consumer spending compared to the previous month [1] - The current growth rate of 8.3% reflects ongoing economic conditions and consumer confidence in Vietnam [1] - The decline from 10.2% to 8.3% suggests potential challenges in the retail sector that may need to be addressed [1]

Core Insights - The ice cream market in China is experiencing a surge in sales due to high temperatures, with major brands competing for market share [2][3] - Magnum Ice Cream Company, previously part of Unilever, has officially separated and is preparing for an IPO in Amsterdam by Q4 2025, indicating a significant shift in the global ice cream landscape [5][7] - The Chinese ice cream market is projected to reach a scale of 183.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a steady growth forecast in the coming years [13] Company Developments - Unilever's ice cream business, which includes brands like Magnum and Cornetto, has been a dominant player, holding approximately 20% of the global market share [3][5] - The establishment of Magnum Ice Cream Company was announced in March 2023, marking a strategic move to enhance brand identity and operational focus [5][8] - The company aims to leverage the summer sales season to establish a strong market presence as an independent entity [7][13] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with established brands like Mengniu and Yili also vying for market share, particularly in the high-margin ice cream segment [15] - New entrants and innovative products are emerging, with over 41,200 ice cream-related companies registered in China as of May 2023, indicating a rapidly evolving market [15][17] - The rise of online sales channels and instant retail is reshaping consumer purchasing behavior, with a notable increase in demand for ice cream products [25][21] Consumer Trends - The ice cream market is diversifying, with brands exploring new consumption scenarios beyond traditional summer treats, such as workplace snacks and social gatherings [25][19] - The popularity of unique and visually appealing products, like "chicken leg ice cream," reflects changing consumer preferences, although many novelty items struggle with repeat purchases [18][19] - The competitive edge is shifting towards brands that can effectively integrate into various lifestyle contexts, suggesting a need for innovative marketing strategies [25][21]

Core Insights - The "Louis Vuitton" giant ship, known as "Louis," has become a popular attraction in Shanghai's Nanjing West Road, marking a significant milestone in the area's transformation into a "global top retail destination" [1][2] - The ship's design is inspired by Louis Vuitton's historical legacy of creating hard cases for transoceanic journeys, symbolizing Shanghai's port culture [1] - The presence of "Louis" has significantly increased foot traffic in the area, benefiting nearby businesses such as Starbucks, which has seen long queues due to the influx of visitors [1] Company and Industry Developments - Swire Properties is committed to enhancing the overall community of the Nanjing West Road area by integrating international retail concepts with local cultural elements [2] - Over the past few years, Swire Properties has collaborated closely with the Jing'an District government and various partners to upgrade the retail ecosystem of the Nanjing West Road area [2] - The Zhangyuan project on Nanjing West Road currently has only one-third of its total area open, with the remaining two-thirds set to open in phases starting mid-next year [2] - By the end of next year, the project will connect three underground subway lines, further elevating the area's commercial potential [2] - Swire Properties anticipates that Nanjing West Road will attract more renowned international and domestic brands, solidifying its status as a global consumption hotspot [2]

Core Viewpoint - The decline of Renrenle, the first private supermarket listed in China, leading to its delisting, reflects the challenges faced by traditional retail in the face of e-commerce competition and changing consumer habits [1][12]. Financial Performance - Renrenle was listed on January 13, 2010, with an initial stock price of 26.98 yuan per share, reaching a peak market capitalization of approximately 136.68 billion yuan shortly after [2]. - By July 3, 2025, Renrenle's stock price had fallen to 0.36 yuan per share, resulting in a total market capitalization of about 1.58 million yuan [2]. - The company reported a net asset of -4.04 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024, continuing a trend of negative net profits since its third year of listing [4][6]. Operational Challenges - Renrenle faced significant operational challenges, including rising store operating costs, intense competition from online retailers, and a shift in consumer shopping habits [1][4]. - The company has experienced net losses in nine out of its fifteen years since going public, with attempts at transformation and new business ventures yielding little success [1][4]. Store Management and Strategy - Renrenle's store count peaked at 149 in 2019 but has since declined, with the company closing 45 stores and opening only one new store by the end of 2024 [11]. - The company has attempted to mitigate losses through asset sales and restructuring, including the divestment of subsidiaries and renegotiation of debts with suppliers [6][12]. Market Context - The retail sector has seen a significant number of companies delist, with 17 companies exiting the A-share market in 2024 alone, highlighting the broader challenges within the industry [12][13]. - Analysts attribute Renrenle's struggles to poor strategic decisions, including overexpansion and failure to adapt to e-commerce trends, which ultimately led to its loss of competitive advantage [12][13].

7月4日，京东官宣全国第一家"苏超"官方旗舰店入驻京东。据京东官方数据，"苏超"开赛以来，京东外 卖江苏省订单量环比增长超10倍。 而淘宝闪购近日也发起了连环攻势。继6月30日官宣冠名"苏超"常州队后，7月2日，淘宝闪购宣布启动 规模高达500亿元的补贴计划。7月3日，《每日经济新闻》记者从淘宝闪购处了解到，补贴上线首日， 餐饮连锁品牌和中小商家的订单量分别环比增长170%和140%。 今年"618"期间，即时零售成为新的竞争焦点，淘宝闪购携手饿了么，与京东外卖、美团闪购展开正面 竞争，虽然"618"已经收官，但即时零售赛道仍在升温，各方争相押注"苏超"，上演外卖争霸。 "618"后，战火燃至"苏超" "618"收官后，无论是美团、京东，还是淘宝闪购，都在即时零售上祭出了新招。最新的战火燃向了"苏 超"。 每经记者｜陈婷 每经编辑｜张海妮 平台在即时零售赛道的投入还在继续。 比拼的不仅是低价和速度 种种迹象表明，即时零售已经被各平台提升到了新的战略高度，比拼的也早已不仅是履约速度。 海通证券相关研报提及，此次500亿元补贴被视为阿里坚定进军即时零售的重要信号。在流量分发模型 转型方面，淘宝正将搜索流量、首页推 ...

编辑：竺天 审核： Single 这是新消费智库第 2 6 6 3 期文章 新消费导读 现在，外卖不仅送餐食，连安全套和情趣用品也能快速送上门了。 国内主要电商平台数据显示，成人情趣用品订单量大部分来自于女性，安 全套之外，女性情趣用品常年霸榜。更有意思的是，美团闪购上的这类订 单量正快速上升。 作者 ：l y y 来源：新消费智库 情趣用品，曾长期是人们羞于公开谈论的物品。安全套尚可置于便利店收银台，而情趣用品似乎只存在于街角不起眼的小店，购买过程极其私 密。直到电子商务成熟，成人情趣用品市场才迎来转机。过去十几年，从淘宝、京东到抖音、小红书，电商平台极大便利了消费者。如今，外 卖平台的加入，正试图用即时零售（新零售）打开中国成人情趣用品市场的另一扇大门。 从人人羞于启齿到大胆悦己， 6 成女性正撑起"羞羞"生意 过去，在传统观念主导下，性被视为禁忌，人们谈性色变，对情趣用品避之不及。购买基础计生用品都忐忑羞涩，更遑论情趣用品。经营此 业，更有 "上不了台面"之感。 1991 年，香港人曾炯坚在深圳盐田创办情趣用品工厂，产品几乎全出口，国内市场难觅踪影，许多工人甚至不知手中"玩具"用途。 1993 年，受外 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba's current "Cloud + AI" strategy focuses on becoming a "water seller," providing computing power and AI resources to other clients, which allows it to avoid addressing specific AI commercialization issues [1][16]. Financial Performance - In May 2025, Alibaba reported a revenue of 996.347 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of 125.976 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year surge of 77%, marking a historical high [2]. - The CFO highlighted significant progress in enhancing the competitiveness of e-commerce and cloud businesses, with Taobao and Tmall achieving steady growth [2]. E-commerce Strategy - Alibaba's e-commerce sector faced pressure due to the decline of mobile internet traffic and competition from Pinduoduo, leading to concerns about its business moat [2]. - The company has shifted focus back to users, moving away from extreme price competition, and is now emphasizing quality and operational efficiency [6][4]. - The Taobao platform's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 reached 449.827 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [6]. AI and Cloud Strategy - Alibaba is investing heavily in AI, with plans to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI hardware infrastructure over the next three years [15]. - The cloud computing segment generated revenue of 118.028 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase, driven by soaring AI demand [13]. - The company has released over 200 open-source models, with global downloads exceeding 300 million, establishing a significant presence in the AI space [13]. Instant Retail Development - The instant retail market in China is rapidly growing, with a market size of 650 billion yuan in 2023, showing a year-on-year growth of 28.89% [11]. - Alibaba has integrated Ele.me into its e-commerce division to capitalize on the instant retail trend, launching "Taobao Flash Purchase" to leverage its vast user base [12][8]. - The daily order volume for Taobao Flash Purchase exceeded 6 million, indicating strong market penetration [12]. Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite the promising financial results, Alibaba faces challenges in achieving profitability in its local lifestyle business, which reported an adjusted EBITA loss of 3.689 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025 [12]. - The company needs to effectively integrate its new business models with its existing e-commerce operations to create synergies and enhance overall value [16].