Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand, integrating consumer welfare with investment in goods and people, and fostering a virtuous cycle between supply and demand to enhance the internal dynamics of the domestic economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Transition and Demand Expansion - The shift towards expanding domestic demand is seen as both an urgent and long-term strategy, reflecting a new stage in economic development where growth relies more on quality improvements and welfare enhancement rather than mere quantity expansion [3][4]. - The focus is on transitioning from low-value traditional industries to high-value sectors, including high-end services, which will create new income opportunities and drive consumption growth [3][6]. - The proportion of labor compensation in GDP has been increasing since 2010, but remains relatively low, necessitating policies that promote further increases to boost household demand [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Dynamics - Domestic demand has historically been driven by production investments, but the current economic phase requires a shift towards consumer spending as the primary driver of internal demand [5][6]. - The government aims to create conditions for increasing the share of household consumption in the economy by enhancing income growth and creating more mid-to-high-end job opportunities [6][10]. - The importance of effective investment is highlighted, with a need to balance investments in infrastructure with those that directly benefit people's livelihoods [12][15]. Group 3: Investment in People - The concept of "investment in people" is crucial for ensuring that economic growth translates into improved living standards, requiring a shift in fiscal spending towards enhancing welfare and income levels [9][10]. - There is a call for reforms in the wage growth mechanism to ensure that nominal GDP growth aligns with wage increases, alongside improvements in social security systems [10][11]. - The need for a comprehensive approach to government investment is emphasized, focusing on both infrastructure and human capital to achieve a balanced and sustainable economic development [12][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing technological self-reliance and independence as a key goal for China's economic and social development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with a focus on building a modern industrial system and boosting consumption through the development of the real economy [1][3][4]. Summary by Sections Economic Goals and Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for significant improvements in economic strength, technological capabilities, national defense, and overall national power by 2035, with a target of achieving a per capita GDP comparable to that of moderately developed countries [1][5]. - Key strategies include building a modern industrial system, strengthening the real economy, and accelerating high-level technological self-reliance to lead new productive forces [1][4]. Technological Self-Reliance - The concept of "technological self-reliance" reflects a shift in China's approach to technology, moving from merely acquiring technology from international markets to focusing on qualitative breakthroughs in technology development [3][4]. - The article highlights the need for increased investment in technology and research and development to adapt to complex external conditions, particularly in light of challenges such as trade wars and the COVID-19 pandemic [3][4]. Manufacturing and Consumption - The article stresses the critical role of manufacturing in enhancing consumption levels, arguing that simply providing financial incentives is insufficient; instead, a robust manufacturing sector is essential for creating wealth and improving overall consumption [6][7]. - It notes that China's current per capita GDP of over $13,400 must grow to approximately $30,000 within ten years to reach the target set for moderately developed countries, emphasizing the need for a strong manufacturing base to achieve this goal [5][6]. Investment in People - The article discusses the shift from investing in physical infrastructure to investing in human capital, highlighting the importance of education, technology, and talent development as central to economic and technological advancement [8][9]. - It argues that the ultimate goal of economic and technological development is to improve people's livelihoods, making "investment in people" a crucial aspect of the development strategy [8][9]. Global Economic Engagement - The article introduces the concept of "Chinese people’s economy," which encompasses the global economic activities of Chinese individuals and businesses, suggesting that both domestic and international economic strategies are essential for comprehensive economic development [9][10]. - It emphasizes the need for Chinese enterprises to engage in international markets while simultaneously strengthening the domestic economy [9].

Group 1 - The core objective of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is to achieve significant results in high-quality development, which aligns with the primary task of Chinese-style modernization [3][5] - The plan emphasizes the importance of maintaining a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing industry and constructing a modern industrial system centered on advanced manufacturing [8] - The focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is on economic construction, with key areas including technology, new industrial chains, domestic markets, consumption, and people's livelihoods [10] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines strategic and innovative measures to build a strong domestic market, accelerate agricultural modernization, enhance social welfare, and promote a comprehensive green transition [12] - The plan highlights the need to combine investments in physical assets and human capital, emphasizing that expanding domestic demand and investing in people are two sides of the same coin [15][17] - The future five years will see a push for high-level opening-up, encouraging high-quality enterprises to enter China while supporting Chinese companies in forming their own industrial chains [20][22] Group 3 - The plan aims to accelerate self-reliance in high-level technology and lead the development of new quality productivity, seizing opportunities from the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation [30] - It stresses the importance of original innovation and tackling key core technologies, promoting deep integration of technological and industrial innovation [32] - The plan calls for breaking down barriers to market flow and optimizing resource allocation to create a virtuous cycle of demand and supply [39] Group 4 - The plan identifies key areas for technological breakthroughs, particularly in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced nuclear energy technologies, which are expected to see explosive growth in the next five years [45][49]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Committee's press conference on October 24 emphasized the importance of combining "benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption" with "investing in goods and investing in people" during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session report highlights that expanding domestic demand and investing in people are two sides of the same coin, both being critically important [1]

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）"十五五"时期是我国全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的关键五年。 发展方向已定，具体都有哪些实施路径呢？我们来听听国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院院长黄汉权的解 读。 国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权：（二十届四中全会）公报亮点很多，也有很多新表述、 新提法。提出要把投资于物和投资于人紧密结合起来，我觉得适应经济社会发展到了一个新阶段，变化 的新特征的要求。过去我们讲投资都（在）基础建设（等领域），基本上慢慢走入了达峰期或者是平台 期以后，这些投资空间和潜力有所收窄。这种情况下我们要及时把投资从过去侧重投资于物，及时转向 投资于人这个方向。 黄汉权表示，科技创新是高质量发展的核心驱动力，而科技创新的背后离不开技术的进步和人力资源的 提升，人力资源提升的主要路径，就在于投资于人。 国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院院长 黄汉权：比如说我们对人的全生命周期来进行投资，从小孩的出 生、养育、教育，到他工作以后的就业培训，再到他老龄以后银发经济的挖掘，这一系列（举措）中， 全过程、全流程围绕人的需求和人的全面发展来调整财政支出结构和投资结构，这都是投资人的表现。 对于宏观政策应该如何精准发力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on both GDP and GNI reflects a balanced approach to economic evaluation, focusing on overall economic growth as well as individual income growth, which is crucial for assessing the quality of economic development and social equity [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Growth and Evaluation - The distinction between GDP and GNI highlights different focuses: GDP is used to measure overall economic output, while GNI is more relevant for analyzing income levels and living standards [2][3] - The approach of considering both GDP and GNI signifies the importance of not only macroeconomic growth but also the improvement of individual living standards, which is essential for a comprehensive evaluation of economic development [2][3] Group 2: Policy Implications and Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to balance economic growth with improvements in people's livelihoods, aligning with the principle of "development for the people" [3][4] - The strategy includes expanding domestic demand, enhancing consumption, and investing in both material and human resources, which are interconnected to stimulate economic growth and improve living standards [3][4] - Increasing residents' income is identified as a key factor in activating consumption and driving economic growth, ensuring that the benefits of development are shared among the population [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the construction of a strong domestic market and the acceleration of a new development pattern, focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the interaction between consumption and investment [1][3]. Group 1: Strong Domestic Market - The market is identified as a scarce resource, with China's large-scale market being a significant advantage. The resilience of the domestic market is highlighted in the face of complex external environments, with domestic demand contributing an average of 86.8% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 [3]. - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand is seen as a strategic foundation for establishing a new development pattern that promotes both domestic and international circulation [3]. - The document stresses the importance of the domestic market, which covers over 1.4 billion people, aiming to enhance China's role as a significant consumer market globally [3][4]. Group 2: Investment in Goods and People - The 2025 Government Work Report advocates for increased investment in human capital and services to improve livelihoods, support employment, and stimulate consumption, creating a virtuous cycle of economic development and social improvement [5]. - The combination of investment in tangible assets and human capital is emphasized as essential for sustainable growth, with a call for a balanced approach to enhance skills and participation in the economic cycle [6]. - The need for policies that support human capital investment is highlighted, covering areas such as healthcare, education, and social security, in response to the demands of the new industrial and technological revolution [5][6].

本文字数：3906，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 金叶子 "十四五"即将收官，"十五五"新程将启。 举世瞩目的中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于2025年10月20日至23日在北京举 行，审议通过《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》，擘画出未来五年 的发展蓝图。 全会公报高度评价"十四五"时期我国发展取得的重大成就，明确"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要 目标，并提出了建设现代化产业体系、加快高水平科技自立自强、建设强大国内市场、扩大高水平对 外开放、加大保障和改善民生力度、加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型等一系列任务举措。 未来五年目标确定 回望过去五年，中国在风雨挑战中应变局开新局，经济社会发展取得新的开创性进展、突破性变革、 历史性成就。 2025.10. 23 "十四五"期间，中国经济总量接连跨越110万亿元、120万亿元、130万亿元台阶，预计将于2025 年底达到140万亿元左右，4年平均增长5.5%，人均国内生产总值连续两年超过1.3万美元，中国对 世界经济增长的年均贡献率保持在30%左右。 国家发改委主任郑栅洁此前表示，中国经济展现出世界大国的规模 ...

记者丨周慧 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于2025年10月20日至23日在北京举行。 全会提出，建设强大国内市场，加快构建新发展格局。坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于 人紧密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内大循环内生动力 和可靠性。要大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，坚决破除阻碍全国统一大市场建设卡点堵点。 21世纪经济报道记者就此采访了商务部研究院、北京大学经济学院等专家进行解读。 图：2025年初，沈阳棋盘山滑雪场游客扎堆 拍摄：周慧 商务部研究院研究员白明表示，公报提出坚持扩大内需的这个战略基点，将坚持扩大内需提到了重要的位置，只有夯实了这个 基点，中国才能得以构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，这是具有长远眼光的宏观战略。从发 展格局来看，中国双循环并重，有了这个基点做支撑，中国在外循环上才能占据主动和更自信。 商务部研究院研究员周密表示，公报将建设强大国内市场提到了很重要的位置，强调了国内市场的重要性，中国市场覆盖14亿 多人口，市场规模和潜力是非常大的，这个目标是希望能够对全球 ...

Economic Growth Insights - The median and arithmetic average of Q3 GDP growth predictions from 12 institutions were 4.8% and 4.76% respectively, indicating a general expectation of economic performance[1] - Fixed asset investment, particularly in real estate, saw a significant decline from -12.9% at the end of June to -21.2% by the end of September, contributing to a 9.8 percentage point contraction year-on-year[1] - Infrastructure investment dropped from 5.3% to -8.1%, suggesting a substantial drag on GDP growth, estimated at about 0.7 percentage points[1] Policy and Investment Trends - The decreasing importance of real estate and infrastructure investment in national economic statistics suggests a potential shift in policy focus towards "investment in people"[2] - The "anti-involution" initiative, initially expected to gain traction in Q3, appears to have been sidelined in favor of boosting production amid economic pressures[2] - The PMI data indicated a widening gap between production and new orders, expanding by 0.9 percentage points to 1.1%[2] External Trade Dynamics - September's foreign trade performance exceeded expectations, with exports rising by 8.3% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards emerging markets in the Global South[3] - The reliance on the U.S. market has decreased, with direct exports to the U.S. dropping to approximately 9%, while exports to Africa surged by 56%[3] - High-value industrial products, such as ships and integrated circuits, have become key drivers of China's export strength[3] Economic Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to see a focus on utilizing existing policies, with over 1 trillion yuan in excess fiscal deposits available for economic support[3] - The potential for a stable economic performance in Q4 is bolstered by the anticipated operational window from the central bank in November[3] - Risks include a potential reduction in policy stimulus and uncertainties in overseas economic policies[3]