两年期美债收益率跌3.32个基点，报4.0034%，日内交投于4.0325%-3.9909%区间，非农日也曾涨至 4.0407%。 周一（6月9日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率下跌3.18个基点，报4.4738%，日内交投于 4.5156%-4.4678%区间，北京时间20:56涨穿6月6日发布美国非农就业报告之后出现的当天顶部 4.5116%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rising yields on U.S. Treasury bonds may attract buyers, but upcoming bond auctions will be closely monitored due to concerns over U.S. fiscal issues [1] Group 1 - The 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields are currently around 5%, 4.5%, and 4.0% respectively, which are seen as attractive levels for low-end buyers [1] - Recent weeks have shown that these yield levels have been appealing to certain investors [1] - Despite the attractive yields, investors are adopting a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. Treasury bond auction this week due to ongoing fiscal concerns [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming auction of $22 billion in 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds is seen as a critical test of market confidence amid rising long-term bond yields and concerns over U.S. fiscal health [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has been labeled the "least popular bond" as investor confidence in long-term debt wanes, with yields reaching a near 20-year high of 5.15% last month [2] - The rapid expansion of U.S. debt and deficits is identified as a key driver behind the rising yields, leading to a perception that long-term U.S. Treasuries are increasingly influenced by political factors rather than monetary policy [2] Group 2 - Despite prevailing concerns, there is potential for a turnaround as some investors find the 5% yield level attractive for purchasing 30-year bonds [3] - The U.S. Treasury will also auction $58 billion in 3-year bonds and $39 billion in 10-year bonds, with overall demand providing further insights into market sentiment [3] - The expectation is for a steeper yield curve, with short-term rates potentially declining if economic data weakens, while long-term rates remain pressured by deficits and a weak dollar outlook [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. Treasury yield curve rebounded across the board due to the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, and the Fedwatch shows that the pricing for interest rate cuts this year is less than two times. The U.S. internal game uncertainty has increased, and the U.S. Treasury yield may still fluctuate at a high level [1][41][42] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index has closed up for four consecutive trading days, challenging 3400 points. Core technology sectors have performed well, and micro - cap stocks have continued the valuation repair trend. Next week, the overall opportunities may outweigh the risks [1][42] - In terms of convertible bond styles, equal - weighted leads weighted, small - cap leads large - cap, high - price leads low - price, and AAA - rated bonds perform weakly while medium - and low - rated bonds perform strongly [1][42] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Market Review 1.1. The equity market rose overall, and most industries closed up - From June 2nd to June 6th, the equity market rose overall. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 1011.75 billion yuan to 11856.64 billion yuan, with a weekly on - week increase of 9.33% [9] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 23 industries closed up. Communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, computers, and basic chemicals led the gains, while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel led the losses [15] 1.2. The convertible bond market rose overall, and most industries closed up - From June 2nd to June 6th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 28 industries closed up, with 7 industries having a gain of over 2%. Media, communication, computers, household appliances, and beauty care led the gains, while building materials led the losses [18] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 515.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.67 billion yuan, with a on - week change of - 7.15%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 104.79 billion yuan, and the first - ranked one had a trading volume of 233.31 billion yuan [18] - Approximately 90.53% of convertible bond issues rose, about 37.68% had a gain in the 0 - 1% range, and 22.95% had a gain of over 2% [18] 1.3. Comparison of stock and bond market sentiments - From June 2nd to June 6th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly gain. The trading volume of both the convertible bond and underlying stock markets decreased significantly, and the underlying stock market had a larger decline in trading volume and a lower quantile level [36] - Approximately 89.71% of convertible bonds and 77.70% of underlying stocks closed up. About 40.36% of convertible bonds had a larger gain or loss than underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [36] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategies - The U.S. Treasury yield may still fluctuate at a high level due to the increase in internal game uncertainty in the U.S [1][41][42] - In the domestic market, next week's opportunities may outweigh risks. It is recommended to allocate core technology themes that have corrected significantly and focus on medium - and low - priced targets with low business uncertainty, sufficient cash, and a positive attitude towards equity investment and mergers and acquisitions [1][42] - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are Qilu Convertible Bond, Chuanheng Convertible Bond, Youfa Convertible Bond, Wankai Convertible Bond, Dayu Convertible Bond, Qizheng Convertible Bond, Baidian Convertible Bond, Guangda Convertible Bond, Wantian Convertible Bond, and Jinlun Convertible Bond [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.25% at 42,319.74 points, the S&P 500 down 0.53% at 5,939.3 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.83% at 19,298.45 points [1] - Most large tech stocks declined, with Tesla dropping over 14%, Apple down more than 1%, Nvidia down over 1%, and Facebook down 0.48%. In contrast, Google rose 0.1%, Amazon increased 0.33%, and Microsoft gained 0.82% [1] Chinese Stocks - Most Chinese stocks saw gains, with Zhihu Group rising nearly 13%, Kingsoft Cloud up over 7%, Lotus Technology increasing over 5%, and GDS Holdings up over 4%. However, some stocks like Linklogis and Bawang Tea fell over 9% [1] European Indices - European major indices showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX index up 0.19% at 24,323.58 points, reaching a new historical high, while France's CAC40 index fell 0.18% to 7,790.27 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index rose 0.11% to 8,811.04 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.68% at $3,376.1 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 3.31% to $35.795 per ounce [1] - International oil prices increased across the board, with WTI crude oil main contract up 0.64% at $63.25 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 0.66% at $65.29 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Yields - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.07% to 98.74, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar dropped 38.5 basis points to 7.1755 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield up 6.19 basis points to 3.924%, the 3-year yield up 6.82 basis points to 3.894%, the 5-year yield up 7.13 basis points to 3.995%, the 10-year yield up 3.93 basis points to 4.395%, and the 30-year yield up 0.61 basis points to 4.883% [1] - European bond yields also generally increased, with the UK 10-year yield up 1 basis point to 4.614%, France's 10-year yield up 4.7 basis points to 3.248%, Germany's 10-year yield up 5.2 basis points to 2.576%, Italy's 10-year yield up 3.5 basis points to 3.524%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 4 basis points to 3.155% [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields have stabilized after a significant decline due to weak economic data, with particular focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data [1] Group 1: Treasury Yields - The 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year US Treasury yields are currently at 3.879%, 4.367%, and 4.890% respectively [1] - The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell by 8 basis points and 9.5 basis points respectively, influenced by the disappointing ADP employment report [1] Group 2: Employment Data - The ADP employment report has led to increased scrutiny on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which is expected to be more significant than usual [1] - Analysts from Metzler emphasize that more signs of weakness in the labor market are needed before the Federal Reserve considers interest rate cuts [1]

周三现货黄金市场再次走V型反转走势，因国际经济环境的不稳定，特朗普政府新关税政策的冲击以及美国服务业意外萎缩，就业数据的低迷，使得市场投 资者纷纷涌入避险市场，现货黄金市场昨日触底反弹，最低至3343.86美元/盎司，最高至3384.71美元/盎司，最终收盘于3372.60美元/盎司。 现货白银市场 若市场价格跌破34.170美元/盎司的支撑位，可择机建立空单头寸，并将下方目标价位设定为33.700-33.300美元/盎司。 现货黄金市场 小时图目前处于高位震荡阶段，短线15分钟图处于震荡阶段，震荡区间3369.00-3385.00，操作上可在这个区间高抛低吸。 若后市市场下破3369.00点位则可介入空单，下方目标可看向3359.00-3349.00美元/盎司。 若后市市场上破3385.00点位则可介入多单，上方目标可看向3395.00-3405.00。（止损为5.00美元/盎司空间） 小时图目前处于震荡阶段，短线15分钟图周期处于震荡阶段，震荡区间34.170-34.570，操作上可在这个区间内高抛低吸。 对于后市热点，需要继续关注贸易关税情况，同时要密切关注地缘政治的发展情况以及美联储未来货币政策的动向 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term core logic is that Trump's trade war is fluctuating, the risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest are rising, the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Core Logic**: Short - term Trump trade war fluctuations, increased risks of economic recession and geopolitical unrest, rising stagflation risk in the US economy, and the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts [2]. - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump plans to raise import steel tariffs to 50% from June 4th. The EU may counter - retaliate if the US does not lower tariffs. The Russia - Ukraine - Istanbul peace talks broke down, and Iran may reject the US nuclear proposal [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: The Fed acknowledges the potential simultaneous rise of inflation and unemployment. The US manufacturing industry continues to shrink under the shadow of tariffs. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate cut space in 2025 has dropped to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index is under pressure and回调, while the US Treasury yield is oscillating strongly [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The CRB commodity index is oscillating and rebounding, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has increased slightly recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.50%, the discount rate is 4.50%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, and the Fed's total assets are 67241.46 billion US dollars, showing a decrease compared to the previous period [9]. - **Inflation Data**: CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and other inflation - related indicators show certain changes, with some indicators decreasing [11]. - **Economic Growth Data**: GDP shows a decline in both annualized year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter terms. The unemployment rate remains stable, and other labor market indicators also have corresponding changes [11]. - **Other Data**: Data on the real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys all show different trends [11]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability distribution of the Fed's interest rate range at different meetings from 2025 to 2026 is provided, showing a general trend of gradually increasing the probability of lower interest rates over time [14].

美债收益率若升至5%，美股是否必然承压？ 据追风交易台消息，瑞银（UBS）最新报告指出，关键不在于美债收益率本身，而在于它如何上涨。"收益率上行的路径"是由经济增长驱动还是 由风险溢价（term premium）推动，其对股市的影响截然不同。 报告强调，若由经济增长和企业盈利预期改善推动，标普500有望上行至6200点；若由风险溢价上升（如财政赤字、政策不确定性）驱动，则对美 股尤其是防御板块构成压力。 收益率的变动路径比最终数值更重要 如果谈论美国债券收益率升至5%或更高，那么达到目标的过程将至关重要。 瑞银报告称，10年期美债收益率是全球无风险利率的重要锚，也是股市现金流折现的核心参数。当这一利率上升时，未来现金流的现值下降，从 而对股票估值构成压力。然而，市场并非静态调整，收益率的变化通常与其他变量同步发生，例如企业盈利预期、风险溢价和宏观经济环境。 "收益率从来不是孤岛"，瑞银策略师团队强调。10年期美债收益率的变动通常与股票估值的两大核心要素——风险溢价和盈利预期——同步波 动。真正决定股市走向的，是推动收益率上行的主导因素。 | Factors of investment returns | Ma ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 6 月 3 日 增量资金相对均衡，大盘风格为主 ❑大类资产表现复盘：股票市场方面，全球股市普涨，美欧>港股＞A 股。外汇方面， 美元兑人民币汇率震荡下行，英镑兑美元大幅升值。大宗商品方面，原油、白银 价格上涨，黄金价格基本持平。原油价格快速上涨主要受益于 OPEC+增产节奏放 缓和美国库存超预期下降，以及地缘风险支撑。债市方面，美债利率持续上行， 中债利率震荡。 ——A 股流动性与风格跟踪月报（202506） ❑流动性与资金供需：6 月增量资金或有望温和净流入，各类资金或相对均衡。5 月 央行降准降息落地，MLF 加量续作，资金利率低位波动，资金面整体宽松，展望 6 月随着关税对经济的影响逐渐显现，资金面有望维持宽松。关税对美国通胀的影 响在 4 月的数据中仍不明显，市场对美联储降息预期整体降温，全年降息预期收 敛至 1-2 次，首次降息时点推迟至 9 月。5 月股票市场可跟踪资金紧平衡，各类增 量资金相对均衡。资金供给端，新发偏股基金规模有所收窄；市场冲高回落，ETF 转为净赎回；市场风险偏好有所改善，但融资资金仅小幅净流入。资金需求端， 重要股东净减持规模扩大 ...