Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury market is showing significant sensitivity to economic cooling signals, with a notable decline in yields, particularly in the long end, where the 30-year Treasury yield dropped by 30 basis points since the beginning of the month[6] - The 5-year Treasury yield fell nearly 10 basis points following the release of August non-farm payroll data, reflecting a strong correlation with the Bloomberg Labor Market Surprise Index[7] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revised non-farm employment numbers down by 910,000 over the past year, marking the largest revision since 2000, which indicates potential issues with statistical methods in the post-pandemic era[8] Labor Market Insights - The New York Fed's survey indicates that the probability of unemployed individuals finding a job within three months has decreased to 44.9%, while the probability of being unemployed within the next year has risen to 39.1%[8] - The market widely anticipates three rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year due to the weakening labor market[8] Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's stance has shifted to a more dovish tone, emphasizing employment downside risks and removing the "zero lower bound" language from policy statements, reinforcing the "maximum employment" goal[14] - Political pressures on the Fed are increasing, with President Trump publicly pressuring Powell and pushing for appointments of pro-Trump individuals to the Fed Board, raising concerns about the Fed's independence[15] Market Dynamics - The current market pricing for long-term rates reflects caution due to uncertainties surrounding policy, fiscal sustainability, and the Fed's independence, with long-term rates potentially offering attractive duration exposure as short-term rates decline rapidly[17] - Short-term Treasuries are viewed as a "safe haven" but carry structural risks due to their high reflection of rate cut expectations, which compresses yield potential[19]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that U.S. Treasury yields have declined significantly, driven by cooling employment and falling inflation, with the market fully pricing in a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - As of September 12, the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 16 basis points to 4.06%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 6 basis points and the 30-year yield dropped by 20 basis points over the same two-week period [1] - The U.S. Treasury's fiscal deficit for December was reported at $344.8 billion, with a 12-month cumulative deficit slightly decreasing to $1.89 trillion [1] Group 2 - The net short position in U.S. Treasury futures decreased to 5.915 million contracts, indicating a short-term closure of hedging demand in the interest rate market [1] - The Federal Reserve's policy statement has become more cautious, with market expectations for a 75 basis point rate cut by the end of the year exceeding 90% following weak non-farm payroll data on September 9 [1] - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance increased by $71.79 billion over two weeks, while the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool shrank by $10.2 billion, adding uncertainty to liquidity buffers [1]

每经AI快讯，周五(9月12日)，美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨0.99个基点报3.549%，3年期 美债收益率涨1.94个基点报3.527%，5年期美债收益率涨3.81个基点报3.633%，10年期美债收益率涨4.57 个基点报4.070%，30年期美债收益率涨2.69个基点报4.681%。 ...

Core Insights - The $550 billion investment fund, part of the tariff agreement between Japan and the U.S., may significantly utilize Japan's $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves [1] - U.S. Treasury securities are a core component of Japan's foreign exchange reserves, and utilizing these bonds could trigger a chain reaction leading to an increase in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [1] - This situation may prompt the U.S. to pressure Japan to extend the maturity of its Treasury holdings [1] - From a currency policy perspective, the trend is expected to lean towards a weaker U.S. dollar and a stronger Japanese yen [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reports that as of the end of August, the average interest cost of local debt replacement has decreased by over 2.5 percentage points [1] - The Central Clearing and Interbank Lending Center will jointly launch a centralized bond lending business [1] - Three departments are utilizing funds from ultra-long special government bonds to support large-scale equipment upgrades in the energy and electricity sectors, guiding high-quality industry development [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue a second tranche of the 2025 ultra-long special government bonds with a total face value of 82 billion yuan [1] - The Ministry of Finance intends to issue the first tranche of the 2025 book-entry interest-bearing government bonds with a total face value of 160 billion yuan [1] - CITIC Securities has received approval from the CSRC to publicly issue no more than 60 billion yuan in corporate bonds to professional investors [1] Group 3 - Yuexiu Group plans to pay interest on its 900 million yuan medium-term notes, with a remaining debt balance of 30 million yuan [1] - Several bond issuers have been publicly reprimanded, primarily due to violations in regular report disclosures [1] - Hainan has completed roadshows for issuing offshore RMB local government bonds in Hong Kong [1] Group 4 - NIO Automobile held its first creditors' meeting, confirming debts of approximately 5.1 billion yuan [1] - AllianzGI and other institutions have increased their holdings of Chinese government bonds [1] - Analysts predict that US Treasury yields will decline in the coming months, with the 10-year yield potentially reaching a low of 3.8% [1]

每经AI快讯，周四(9月11日)，美债收益率涨跌不一，2年期美债收益率涨0.19个基点报3.539%，3年期 美债收益率涨1.11个基点报3.508%，5年期美债收益率跌0.35个基点报3.595%，10年期美债收益率跌2.29 个基点报4.024%，30年期美债收益率跌4.15个基点报4.654%。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% in August, significantly lower than the economists' forecast of a 0.3% increase, with July's data revised down to 0.7% [2] - This unexpected weakness alleviated market inflation concerns and intensified expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and providing support for gold [2] - The market is currently in a volatile phase, with key support at 3620 and resistance around 3657, indicating a pattern of consolidation and potential trading opportunities [2] Group 2 - In the oil market, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels for the week ending September 5, exceeding the expected increase of 1 million barrels [4] - The rise in crude oil inventories somewhat offsets the market's concerns regarding new U.S. sanctions against Russia due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine [4] - Despite a recent rebound in oil prices, the upward momentum appears limited, with a strong resistance level at 64, suggesting continued short positions may be advisable [4]

每经AI快讯，周三(9月10日)，美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.28个基点报3.538%，3年期 美债收益率跌1.72个基点报3.497%，5年期美债收益率跌2.08个基点报3.599%，10年期美债收益率跌4.21 个基点报4.047%，30年期美债收益率跌3.71个基点报4.696%。 ...

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, stand at 979.68 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [5] - On September 9, spot gold prices peaked at $3675.01 per ounce, marking a new historical high, before closing at $3626 per ounce, down $9.7 or 0.27% [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Israel and Hamas, influenced gold prices, which initially surged before retreating due to rising U.S. Treasury yields [5] Group 2 - Recent economic data revealed a downward revision of 911,000 in U.S. non-farm payrolls, equivalent to a 0.6% decrease, marking the worst performance on record [5] - Analysts suggest that the downward revision of employment data strengthens the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut, with traders currently pricing in an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [6] - Technical analysis indicates that gold may face a correction, with potential support levels at $3600 and $3578, while resistance levels are seen at $3700 and $3750 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The issue of slow employment growth in the US is prominent, and the risk of economic stall is increasing. The year - on - year growth rate of non - farm employment in the US from June to August has been continuously below 1%, with a gradual slowdown trend. Given the relationship between GDP, consumption growth, and employment growth, there is a high risk of economic stall if non - farm employment growth further slows. Thus, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and the possibility of more than 50BP interest rate cuts within the year is also increasing [2][10]. - The uncertainty of US fiscal balance has increased again. The US Federal Appellate Court recently ruled that most of President Trump's global tariffs are illegal but allowed them to continue until October 14. The US Supreme Court's subsequent ruling still has great uncertainty. If the Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the US government may seek congressional authorization for tariffs, and this process is also highly uncertain. If most of Trump's tariff policies are cancelled, it will have a significant impact on the US fiscal situation [2][12]. - During the initial stage of the Fed's restart of the interest rate cut cycle, 4% remains an important threshold for the 10 - year yield of US Treasury bonds. Given the increasing uncertainty of tariff policies, it is not advisable to chase long - term US Treasury bonds. Particular caution should be exercised when the 10 - year yield of US Treasury bonds reaches or falls below 4% [2][14]. - The producer price index continues to decline. In the week of September 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork from the Ministry of Agriculture decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 27.00% year - on - year. The Shandong Vegetable Wholesale Price Index increased by 2.15% week - on - week and decreased by 18.40% year - on - year. The price of Brent and WTI crude oil futures decreased by 1.01% and 0.38% week - on - week respectively. The domestic cement price index decreased by 1.84% week - on - week, and the Nanhua Iron Ore Index decreased by 0.55% week - on - week [2]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The issue of slow employment growth in the US is prominent, and the risk of economic stall is increasing. The year - on - year growth rate of non - farm employment from June to August has been continuously below 1%, with a slowdown trend. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high, and the possibility of more than 50BP interest rate cuts within the year is increasing [10]. 3.2 High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources. 3.3 Important High - frequency Indicators in the US and Europe - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources. 3.4 Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources. 3.5 High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - No specific summarized content is provided in the given text, only information about relevant charts and data sources.