美元破位引发大宗商品集体反弹，贵金属与有色金属齐涨。 周四公布的美国一季度GDP终值、新房销售数据双双疲软，推高降息预期。市场数据显示，对7月降息 概率的预期升至27%，9月更是高达84%。 隔夜，美元指数跌至2022年3月以来最低水平，触发大宗商品市场全面反弹。 美元指数再次跌破98关口，接近年内低点。 美元走弱直接提振了以美元计价的大宗商品的吸引力。黄金持续走高，上破3300美元/盎司。 上交所铜价上涨0.3%至每吨78820元人民币，伦敦市场铜价同样录得涨幅。铝、锌、镍等有色金属价格 也普遍上扬。 分析师预计，这轮商品反弹可能才刚刚开始，美联储政策转向和美元进一步贬值将为大宗商品提供更强 劲的上涨动力。 美元缘何破位98关口？ 这一增幅意味着欧洲北约成员国将新增近7000亿美元的防务支出。虽然分摊到十年完成，但这无疑将为 欧洲经济注入新动能，与此前德国增加财政刺激的承诺相呼应。 其次，由于美国宏观数据的持续疲软，对美联储降息的预期持续升温。 分析指出，非"硬"数据开始追赶"软"数据的疲弱表现，新屋销售的骤降尤为引人注目。这加剧了市场对 经济放缓的担忧，推动投资者重新定价美联储的政策路径。 美联储主席鲍威 ...

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust's holdings remain stable at 953.39 tons of gold, reflecting a cautious market sentiment amid fluctuating economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [2][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of June 26, the SPDR Gold Trust holds 953.39 tons of gold, unchanged from the previous trading day [2][7]. - The overall trend in gold ETF holdings shows fluctuations, with the latest data indicating a stable position [3][4]. Group 2: Market Conditions - On June 26, spot gold prices fluctuated, reaching a high of $3,350.31 per ounce and a low of $3,309.51, ultimately closing at $3,327.68, down $4.24 or 0.13% [7]. - Economic data from the U.S. shows mixed signals, with a 0.5% contraction in Q1 GDP and an increase in the trade deficit, alongside a rise in unemployment claims to a three-and-a-half-year high [7][8]. Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Market speculation suggests two potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with the first possibly in September, while the probability of a July cut remains at 20% [7][8]. - Divergent views among Federal Reserve officials regarding tariffs and inflation are influencing market expectations and gold prices [7][8]. Group 4: Technical Analysis of Gold - The technical indicators for gold are currently neutral, suggesting a consolidation phase, with key support at $3,300 and resistance at $3,350 [8]. - If gold prices break below $3,300, the next support level is around $3,245, while a breakthrough above $3,350 could lead to resistance at $3,380 and $3,400 [8].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has entered a bearish phase, with the dollar index dropping approximately 10.9% year-to-date, reaching its lowest point since March 2022 at 96.99 [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Expectations - Multiple Federal Reserve officials have indicated support for a rate cut in July, leading to heightened expectations among Wall Street for accelerated rate cuts [3][7]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in July has surged to 23%, up from less than 15% a week prior, with some market bets reaching as high as 40% [3][7]. - Wall Street capital is increasingly betting on dollar depreciation, driven by a "buy the expectation" trading strategy as the market anticipates faster rate cuts [3][7]. Group 2: Speculative Positions and Dollar Weakness - Speculators' net short positions on the dollar have risen to $15.69 billion, the highest level since January [3]. - The expectation that the new Federal Reserve chair will align with President Trump's aggressive rate cut demands is contributing to the dollar's downward pressure [4][7]. - Morgan Stanley predicts a further 5.7% depreciation of the dollar index over the next 12 months due to various economic concerns [7]. Group 3: Renminbi Performance and Market Sentiment - The offshore renminbi has appreciated to its highest level since November 2022, with the dollar trading at 7.1517 against the renminbi [5]. - The renminbi's appreciation has been relatively modest at around 3% compared to other major currencies, which have seen larger gains [5][9]. - Emerging market funds are increasingly shifting from bearish to bullish positions on the renminbi, anticipating a rebound due to easing trade tensions and expectations of Fed rate cuts [6][10]. Group 4: Economic Context and Future Outlook - The broader context for the dollar's decline includes perceptions that the US economy is slowing faster than other regions, prompting capital outflows [8]. - The current high level of the US-China interest rate differential is limiting the renminbi's appreciation potential [10]. - Emerging market funds are adjusting their strategies in response to the Fed's anticipated rate cuts, with many now favoring the renminbi as a potential beneficiary of the dollar's weakness [10][11].

2025年06月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治停火 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 | 4 | | 铝：偏强运行 | 6 | | 氧化铝：大幅反弹 | 6 | | 铝合金：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 锌：短期偏强 | 8 | | 铅：偏强运行 | 9 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 10 | | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 12 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 27 日 黄金：地缘政治停火 白银：继续冲高 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong013179@gtjas.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | 沪金2508 | 775.28 | 日涨幅 0.17% | 昨日 ...

期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月27日 星期五 70015979 价格及基差 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人员的 不同观点、见解及分析方法、并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述 品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有、未经广发期货书面 授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 十六世第六十 | 铝产业链期现日报 | | --- | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年6月27日 周敏波 Z0015979 | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00 品 | 2061 ...

t 2000 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 产业期现日报 lly务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 铁矿石相关价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 仓单成本:卡粉 | 707.7 | 707.7 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 仓单成本:PB粉 | 739.2 | 739.2 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 仓单成本:巴混粉 | 750.2 | 750.2 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 合单成本:金布巴粉 | 731.4 | 731.4 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 09合约基差:卡粉 | 47.1 | 47.7 | -0.7 | -1.4% | | | 09合约基差:PB粉 | 33.7 | 79.2 | -45.5 | -57.4% | 元/吨 | | 09合约基差:巴混粉 | 44.7 | 90.2 | -45.5 | -50.4% | | | 09合约基差:金布巴粉 | 25.9 | 71.4 | ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 1. 2025 年 6 月 26 日 0#锌主流成交价集中在 22290~22390 元/吨，双燕成交 于 22380~22530 元/吨，1#锌主流成交于 22220~22320 元/吨。早盘市场对 均价报价升水 40~50 元/吨，无对盘报价。第二交易时段，普通国产报价 对 2507 合约升水 110 元/吨，白银对 2507 合约升水 160 元/吨，会泽对 2507 合约升水 200 元/吨，高价品牌双燕对 2507 合约报价升水 200~250 元/吨。 2. 宁波市场主流品牌 0#锌成交价在 22280~223 ...

南华贵金属日报: 银强金震 关注晚间美PCE 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月27日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场银强金震，比特币维持震荡，美指跌破98，原油震荡，美股强势亦抑制贵金属避险需求， 铜价异常则带动白银偏强走势。最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3341.6美元/盎司，-0.04%；美白银2509合 约收报于36.885美元/盎司，+1.22%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报775.28元/克，+0.69%；SHFE白银 2508合约收8796元/千克，+1.7%。数据方面则强化美联储年内降息2次预期，美国25Q1GDP终值下修 至-0.5%，个人消费创疫情以来最弱表现；美国上周初请失业金人数虽低于预期，但续请失业金人数跃升至 2021年11月以来最高；美国5月耐用品订单环比初值16.4%，创2014年7月以来最大增幅。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为79.3%，降息25个基点的概率为 20.7%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为74. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the Chinese yuan has been appreciating against the US dollar since June, driven by both internal and external factors [1][2] - The onshore and offshore yuan both broke the 7.16 mark against the dollar on June 26, reaching new highs not seen since mid-November of the previous year [1] - The recent strengthening of the yuan is attributed to a weaker dollar and a stable domestic economic environment, including growth in industrial output and retail sales [1] Group 2 - The US dollar index has been declining since June 19, hitting a low of 96.9923 on June 26, the lowest level since March 2022 [2] - Analysts predict that the yuan will continue to remain stable and strong in the short term, as the US dollar is expected to face ongoing pressure due to the impact of US government policies on the economy [2]

在美联储释放明确降息信号的背景下，美国债券市场迎来新一轮上涨行情。 近期，10年期美债收益率跌破4.3%关口，30年期美债收益率同步下探至目前的4.8%附近。这一波动反映了市场对美联储货币政策的重新定 价，而降息预期正成为驱动全球资本流向的核心变量。 美元指数跌破97关口，日内下跌一度达0.72%，创2022年2月以来新低。 6月26日，美股三大指数集体上涨，截至发稿，道指涨0.44%，纳指涨0.50%，标普500指数涨0.46%。 个股方面，英伟达涨超1%，续刷历史新高。稳定币概念股Circle强势反弹，大涨超13%。 10年期美债期货价格以及30年期美债期货价格也有所表现，但相对短期美债期货价格而言，表现相对较弱。 美债收益率近期有所下降，30年期美债收益率目前为4.812%，20年期美债收益率为4.816%，10年期美债收益率为4.269%，5年期美债收益率为 3.835%。 | | 关键期限国债 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 买入 | 卖出 | 现价 涨跌BP | | | 30Y 美国国债 | 4.815 | 4.812 | 4.812 ...