原油方面： 隔夜公布美国截至2月6日当周EIA原油库存数据录得增加853万桶，超过市场预期的增加79.3万桶以及前值的减少345.5万桶，利 空油价，投资者需要警惕油价回落风险。 地缘方面，近期美国总统特朗普表示愿意和伊朗达成核协议。美俄乌近期有可能在美国进一步就和平协议进行谈判。虽然地缘 局势难以在近期得到改善，但是整体趋向降温将是大概率事件，原油供给中断的风险有所缓解。 综合来看，原油市场虽然处于供给过剩的状态，但是边际有所改善，叠加美国总统特朗普较为明显地争夺原油价格的定价权， 原油价格短期延续偏强运行将是大概率事件。 黄金方面： 受美国政府部分停摆影响，隔夜公布的美国1月非农就业报告录得增加13万人，大幅超过市场预期的增加7万人以及前值的增加5 万人，刷新了去年4月份以来的最大增幅。同时公布的美国1月份失业率降至4.3%，刷新了去年8月份以来的新低。数据公布之后 美国总统特朗普大赞非农数据，美国劳工部长也表示，就业报告显示美国经济非常强劲。 劳动力市场的强劲将令市场减少对美联储降息的押注，美联储的官员们对于进一步降息表示谨慎态度。美联储施密德表示，进 一步降息可能导致通胀持续。 地缘政治方面，特朗普会 ...

今日国内品牌金店金价仍处于盘整状态，市场主流价格区间稳定在1530-1556元/克，周生生黄金以1556元/克成为今日最高 价；菜百与上海中国黄金继续维持1530元/克的最低价。老庙黄金价格回落12元，至1550元/克，今日金店高低价差收窄至26 元/克。 昨日现货黄金盘中继续走高，但在晚间美国非农数据公布后，金价跳水，后续在央行稳定买盘和地缘政治因素的支撑下维 持涨势，最终收报5082.49美元/盎司，涨幅1.16%。今日现货黄金又有回调走势，截至发稿，金价暂报5049.88美元/盎司，跌 幅0.64%。 昨日公布的美国1月季调后非农就业人口增加13万人，创2025年4月以来最大增幅，失业率意外降至4.3%，创2025年8月以来 新低。强劲的非农数据推迟了市场对美联储的降息预期，据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，市场对美联储3月降息预期仅 5.4%，4月降息预期为22.1%，6月降息预期58.7%。 以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2026年2月12日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变 ...

周四，国际白银价格出现明显回调，跌幅超过2%，最终收于约82美元/盎司。此次下跌的核心驱动是美国1月份非农就业报告远超预期。 数据显示，美国1月非农就业人数新增13万人，显著高于市场预期的5.5万人，且较去年12月的4.8万人（小幅下修）明显加速。同时，1月失业率意外降至 4.3%，创2025年8月以来新低，表明美国劳动力市场仍具较强韧性。新增就业主要集中在医疗保健、社会援助等逆周期行业，进一步强化了市场对美国经济 复苏的信心。 强劲的就业数据直接削弱了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。CME利率观察工具显示，美联储3月降息25个基点的概率从数据公布前的21.7%骤降至6.0%，维 持利率不变的概率升至94.0%，市场预期的首次降息时间从6月推迟至7月。美国国债收益率随之上升，增加了持有白银等无息资产的机会成本，直接触发价 格回调。 值得注意的是，此次白银价格下跌并非源于自身基本面恶化，更多是外部宏观数据冲击与前期涨幅过高的技术性调整共振所致。白银从去年每盎司30美元左 右一度升至1月底的100美元以上，涨幅远超黄金，本身存在回调整理需求。 从更宏观的视角看，短期回调并未削弱白银的长期支撑逻辑。这一支撑主要来自两个 ...

Employment Data - The January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly exceeding the expected 65,000, representing a 2.46x standard deviation above expectations[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.28%, lower than the expected 4.4% and down from the previous value of 4.38%[1] - The average monthly non-farm payrolls for 2025 were revised down to 29,000 from 69,000, marking the highest downward adjustment since the 2009 financial crisis[1] Sector Analysis - The healthcare sector contributed 124,000 jobs, accounting for over 90% of the service sector's employment growth in January[1] - Other sectors such as construction and professional business services saw modest increases of 33,000 and 34,000 jobs respectively, while the federal government sector experienced a decline of 34,000 jobs[1] - Excluding healthcare, the private sector has shown a trend of zero job growth since 2023[1] Economic Outlook - The report anticipates that the U.S. economy will continue to perform better than expected in Q1 2026, driven by fiscal and monetary easing as well as seasonal factors[2] - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming release of the January core CPI for potential upward surprises, which could influence Federal Reserve interest rate expectations[2] - A combination of better-than-expected economic performance and rising expectations for Trump's visit to China in April could delay rate cuts until June[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor supply and demand gap has narrowed to -820,000, the lowest since the post-pandemic recovery began[2] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%, with total employment rising by 528,000 in January[2] - Permanent unemployment rose by 38,000, indicating a slight upward trend in long-term unemployment[2]

"山雨欲来风满楼"，近日美国非农就业数据如一颗重磅炸弹投入金融市场，引发连锁反应，而铝市也在 这场风暴中面临新的变局，价格上方承压，进入震荡格局。 周四，沪铝主力2603合约窄幅震荡，截止10:15分休盘报价每吨23560元，下跌15元，跌幅0.06%；早间 市场交投冷淡，持货商出货压力较大，下游企业多数放假，仅剩部分及散户如实观望，询价寥寥，整体 成交氛围表现孱弱。长江有色金属网数据显示，长江现货A00铝锭报价每吨23360元，下跌100元，现货 报贴水205元； 需求端则呈现出一片"萧瑟"景象。随着春节临近，下游商家陆续放假，市场交投愈发清淡。下游铝加工 企业基本进入假期停工状态，现货市场活跃度明显下降。春节前金融市场交易活跃度降低，沪铝持仓量 前期自高位回落后未现回升，进一步反映出市场参与热情的降温。 库存方面，铝锭社库累积，成为铝价上方的又一座"大山"。春节前现货补库不足，抑制了市场交投，使 得铝价在供应增加和需求疲软的双重夹击下，上行动力匮乏。 价格走势：窄幅震荡，多空博弈"暗流涌动" 受非农数据和基本面因素共同影响，沪铝多数合约承压后呈震荡走势。隔夜伦铝虽因美伊局势紧张推动 油价上扬而收涨0.39 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors, including expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical risks, and strong fundamentals in the silver market, making it essential for investors to understand the underlying dynamics of this market movement [1][5][10]. Market Performance - On February 11, gold prices rose significantly, with London gold reaching over $5100 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.5%, while COMEX gold surged over 2% [3][4]. - Silver prices experienced an even more dramatic increase, with London silver rising over 6% to reach $86 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of 3.79% [4][6]. Institutional Insights - Major financial institutions, including Societe Generale, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank, have raised their gold price targets, indicating a bullish outlook for the precious metals market [5][6]. - Societe Generale's commodity strategist David Wilson stated that the current gold price surge is justified due to persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, predicting a potential rise to $6000 per ounce by year-end [6]. Economic Indicators - A key driver of the recent price surge was disappointing U.S. retail sales data, which raised expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar and increased attractiveness of gold and silver as safe-haven assets [7][9]. - The market adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 30% probability of three cuts this year, influencing the demand for gold and silver [9][10]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and uncertainties in Europe, have led to increased demand for gold and silver as safe-haven investments [10][11]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with countries like China and Poland making significant purchases, signaling confidence in gold's long-term value [11]. Silver Market Dynamics - The silver market is experiencing a supply-demand gap, with projections indicating a shortfall of 67 million ounces by 2026, driven by industrial demand from sectors like solar energy and electric vehicles [12][13]. - The industrial demand for silver, which constitutes over 60% of total demand, is expected to continue growing, further supporting price increases [13]. Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in price movements, with many investors rushing to buy gold and silver amid fears of missing out on potential gains, amplifying the price surge [14][18]. - The emotional aspect of trading can lead to significant volatility, especially for inexperienced investors who may be tempted to follow market trends without proper analysis [18]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to approach gold and silver investments with caution, focusing on long-term value preservation rather than short-term speculation [25][27]. - Recommendations include diversifying investments, avoiding high-leverage trading, and being wary of potential scams in the precious metals market [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices rebounded and maintained a bullish outlook despite strong U.S. non-farm payroll data, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical factors [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold opened at $5027.38 per ounce, experienced fluctuations, and reached a daily high of $5119.05 before retreating [3] - The lowest point during the day was $4964.04, with a final closing price of $5084.54, reflecting a daily volatility of $155.01 and a gain of $57.16, or 1.14% [3] Group 2: Future Outlook - On February 12, gold prices initially weakened as the market digested the strong U.S. employment report, but remained above bullish support levels [3] - The dollar index showed no significant strength, indicating a potential for further weakening, which could support gold prices [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite a cooling industrial economic activity in China before the Spring Festival, strong buying interest persists, leading to a potential increase in copper prices [1][2] - The latest closing price for London copper is reported at $13,239 per ton, with a rise of $139, or 1.08%, and trading volume increased significantly [1] - Domestic copper futures opened higher and traded around 102,280 yuan per ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 0.35% [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context shows that the U.S. labor market is stabilizing, with non-farm employment data exceeding expectations, which typically would pressure copper prices but has not deterred bullish sentiment [1][2] - The domestic market is experiencing a subdued trading atmosphere due to the upcoming holiday, but supply disruptions and a tight copper concentrate market continue to support prices [2] - It is anticipated that copper prices will consolidate before the holiday, with support levels between 98,000 and 103,000 yuan per ton, suggesting a cautious approach for investors [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Geopolitical risks continue to disrupt, causing platinum and palladium to oscillate strongly. As of February 11, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 551.15 yuan/gram, up 1.91%, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 439.1 yuan/gram, down 1.68% [1] - In the short - term, the market is in a stage of shock consolidation, and in the long - term, the weakening trend of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of long - term price elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be oscillating strongly [2] - The supply of palladium is uncertain, the spot is in short supply, and although there is structural pressure on the demand side, the price has clear support below. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be oscillating strongly [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: In the short - term, sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals, geopolitical issues between the US and Iran, and fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations disrupt the market, and pre - holiday trading is cautious. In the long - term, the US is in an interest - rate cut channel, and the weakening of the US dollar credit is conducive to price elasticity. The platinum - palladium ratio has fallen to a low - level range this week [2] - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive [2] Palladium - **Main Logic**: Supply is uncertain due to US investigations on Russian palladium imports and potential European sanctions. The palladium lease rate has risen, and the spot shortage supports the price. There is structural pressure on the demand side. Although long - term supply and demand tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations support the price [3] - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly. The spot shortage and the improving macro - environment support the price [3] Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index was 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index was 2290.96, up 0.41% [49] - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on February 11, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.24%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.08%, a 1 - month decrease of 5.51%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.32%. The PPI commodity index was 1407.45, up 0.18% [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest price data in January 2026 in China shows a mild recovery at a low level with structural differentiation, while the non - farm data in the US in January greatly exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Domestic price repair depends on the optimization of "new supply" and the unblocking of the transmission chain in the middle and lower reaches. The economic opportunities from the visit and domestic growth - stabilizing policies may lead to a valuation repair of pro - cyclical sectors [2]. - In the short term, for the RMB exchange rate, pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may increase [3]. - For the stock index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - For the bond market, it is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. - For new energy products, the spot market for lithium carbonate is trading lightly, and it is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [15][17]. - For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy may be in a shock adjustment. Copper may be weak in its rebound, zinc may be in a shock, nickel - stainless steel may be affected by quota disturbances, tin may be adjusted in a wide - range shock, and lead may fluctuate weakly [20][26][28]. - For oilseeds and fats, for oilseeds, there are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities. For fats, the domestic market has limited driving forces and is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [31][33]. - For energy and oil and gas, for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, due to geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday. For asphalt, its price may follow the cost - end crude oil, and there may be a decline after the holiday [35][37][39]. - For precious metals, for platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation still exists, and it is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. For gold and silver, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [43][45]. - For chemical products, for pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to conduct range trading. For pure benzene - styrene, pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. For LPG, pay attention to geopolitical uncertainties. For PTA - PX, it is advisable to buy at low prices. For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. For methanol, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For plastics and PP, the short - term driving force is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock before the holiday. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday, and it is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For urea, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For glass and soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For propylene, pay attention to cost and risk [51][54][57][62][65][67][69][80][82][83][86]. - For black products, for rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price may be in a weak shock. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are in a bottom - shock state [88][91][94][95]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for live pigs, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract. For cotton, it is expected to be in a shock in the short term. For sugar, the upward space is limited. For eggs, the main contract is expected to decline in a shock. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For apples, the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited. For red dates, the short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure. For logs, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100][103][104][111][113][114][116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's CPI and PPI data in January 2026 showed a mild recovery at a low level. The US non - farm data in January was strong, affecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%, and the US Congressional Budget Office expects the 2026 deficit to be $1.9 trillion [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US non - farm report in January was strong, delaying the market's expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut. The RMB exchange rate was under the central bank's regulation and maintained a mild appreciation. Pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline [3]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is trading lightly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. It is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday [15]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The market is in a wide - range shock. Due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [16][17]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The non - farm data in the US was better than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts. The fundamentals of aluminum have not changed much, and it may be in a shock adjustment. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, and cast aluminum alloy may follow aluminum [20]. - **Copper**: The probability of a March interest rate cut has decreased, and the copper price's rebound is weak. It is recommended to hold a light position or wait and see before the holiday [20][23]. - **Zinc**: It follows the sector's adjustment, and the non - farm data suppresses the price. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is affected by quota disturbances. The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of capital withdrawal before the holiday [27][28]. - **Tin**: Its price is mainly driven by the macro situation and is expected to be in a wide - range shock adjustment [29][30]. - **Lead**: It follows the sector's fluctuation and is expected to be in a weak shock [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound in the short - term but may be restricted by new supplies in the long - term. There are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [31]. - **Fats**: The domestic market has limited driving forces. The palm oil market needs to observe the de - stocking process, the soybean oil has support from policies, and the rapeseed oil supply is loose. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [32][33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: It opened high and went high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is being repaired, and the demand is weak in some areas. The logic is mainly related to geopolitics, and it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [35]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cost has increased, and it opened high and went high. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [36][37]. - **Asphalt**: Its price increase is weak. The demand has reached the freezing point before the holiday, and it may follow the cost - end crude oil. There may be a decline after the holiday [38][39]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation still exists. It is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. Pay attention to the impact of Fed officials' speeches and relevant events [43]. - **Gold and Silver**: The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term operation is difficult. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [45]. Chemical Products - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is relatively neutral, and the offset paper futures may be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to conduct range trading [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decrease during the Spring Festival [54][55]. - **LPG**: There are still uncertainties in geopolitics. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to risk management before the holiday [56][57]. - **PTA - PX**: It benefits from the good supply - demand structure of PX. The first quarter may see inventory accumulation, and the second quarter may be in short supply. It is advisable to buy at low prices [59][62]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [63][65]. - **Methanol**: It follows geopolitics and non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to be empty before the holiday [66][67]. - **Plastics and PP**: The short - term driving force is limited. PE has a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and PP has limited supply pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [68][69]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [72][80]. - **Urea**: It is in a stage of over - supply due to new capacity release. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation, but it is recommended to exit long positions and be empty before the holiday [81][82]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the demand is expected to weaken, and it is in a weak shock. For glass, there may be concentrated cold repairs before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [83][84]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals still have support, but the cost has uncertainties. Pay attention to cost, supply - demand, and risk [85][86]. Black Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price may be in a weak shock. The supply is relatively strong compared to the demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range [88][89]. - **Iron Ore**: The overall supply - demand is weak, and the iron water is expected to rise. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday [90][91]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are many disturbances in the overseas market, and the domestic driving force is insufficient. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [92][94]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are in a bottom - shock state. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price [95]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The futures price has rebounded, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract [98][99]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the external - internal cotton price difference restricts the upward space [99][100]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar's upward space is limited [101][103]. - **Eggs**: The main contract is expected to decline in a shock. The pre - holiday demand has weakened, and the supply is sufficient [104]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [104][111]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited [112][113]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [114]. - **Logs**: The liquidity is insufficient, and the industry is optimistic about the post - holiday market. It is recommended to wait and see [115][116].