Group 1: Domestic Gold Market - The domestic gold market experienced a strong rally today, with major brands significantly increasing their prices, reaching new highs [1] - The highest gold prices were reported by Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao at 1429 CNY per gram, while the lowest was from Cai Bai at 1392 CNY per gram, resulting in a price difference of 37 CNY per gram, which has notably widened compared to previous days [1] - Detailed price changes for various brands include Lao Miao at 1429 CNY (+22), Liufu at 1424 CNY (+20), and Zhou Dafu at 1426 CNY (+20) [1] Group 2: Gold Recycling Prices - The gold recycling prices have also surged today, with significant price differences among brands [2] - The recycling price for gold is reported at 1011.30 CNY per gram, while other brands like Lai Zi Gold and Zhou Sheng Sheng have prices of 1047.50 CNY and 1037.20 CNY respectively [2] Group 3: International Gold Market - Spot gold maintained an upward trend last Friday, breaking through the 4500 USD mark and closing at 4509.13 USD per ounce, with a rise of 0.71% [3] - Today, spot gold reached a new high, surpassing 4600 USD, currently reported at 4575.58 USD per ounce, reflecting a 1.45% increase [3] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing central bank gold purchases, alongside expectations of future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 50,000 jobs in December, which was below the expected 60,000, contributing to mixed views on the Fed's rate cut outlook [3] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and U.S. political stability have led to increased investment in gold as a safe-haven asset [3] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East, are also influencing gold prices, with potential conflicts escalating [3]

1月12日盘中，沪金期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1031.30元。截止发稿，沪金主力合约 报1025.26元，涨幅2.47%。 国投安信期货：贵金属继续挑战前高阻力 沪金期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 周五美国非农新增就业5万人低于预期，但失业率从11月的4.5%降至4.4%，市场对于美联储本月将维持 利率不变基本达成共识。开年全球地缘乱局延续，委内瑞拉之后伊朗局势再度紧张，媒体报道特朗普已 听取了有关对伊朗实施军事打击的简报。贵金属继续挑战前高阻力，考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下 降后寻找再入场机会。 机构 核心观点 华联期货 黄金的中长期利好因素仍在 新世纪期货 地缘政治风险激发市场避险需求，支撑金价上涨 国投安信期货 贵金属继续挑战前高阻力 华联期货：黄金的中长期利好因素仍在 美联储理事表示，他希望2026年美联储累计降息150个基点，以支持劳动力市场修复，支持黄金上涨。 12月就业率回升，降息预期下降，而贵金属强势震荡，后续关注美联储降息预期变化。从12月美联储议 息会议看，对经济、失业率和通胀预测来看，2026年降息二次的概率增大，因此属于鸽派降息，利好黄 金； ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan continues its strong performance into 2026, breaking the key "7" level against the US dollar, significantly impacting cross-border remittances, tuition payments, and trade settlements [1]. Group 1: Currency Trends - Since late 2025, the US dollar has shown a clear depreciation trend against the yuan, primarily driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The yuan appreciated from 7.15 in late 2025, reaching a high of 6.989 in mid-December, marking a 15-month peak due to a surge in currency exchange by exporters [2]. - In the first four trading days of 2026, the onshore yuan rose over 1500 points, while the offshore yuan rebounded nearly 2000 points, indicating a strong upward trend [2]. Group 2: External Factors Influencing Yuan Strength - The weakening of the US dollar is a key external driver for the yuan's appreciation, with the Federal Reserve having cut rates three times since September 2025, leading to expectations of further easing in 2026 [3]. - Concerns over the US economy's slowdown and high valuations in the stock market have diminished the dollar's safe-haven appeal, contributing to its ongoing decline [3]. Group 3: Economic Fundamentals Supporting Yuan Strength - China's economic resilience has provided a solid foundation for the yuan's exchange rate, with a record trade surplus exceeding $1 trillion in 2025 and a projected historical high in the current account surplus [4]. - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US has reduced the dollar's attractiveness for arbitrage, while the valuation advantage of yuan-denominated assets has become more pronounced [5]. - Continuous capital inflows into Chinese assets, driven by the low valuations of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, further reinforce the yuan's strong position [5].

摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚市时段，黄金价格一度冲高至约4600美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。在全球不确定 性加剧的背景下，避险资金持续涌入黄金市场，同时市场对美联储年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要 支撑。地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军 事选项，此前伊朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为 传统避险资产的吸引力。 今日周五(1月9日)亚市时段，黄金价格一度冲高至约4600美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。在全球不确定性加 剧的背景下，避险资金持续涌入黄金市场，同时市场对美联储年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要支 撑。地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军事 选项，此前伊朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为传 统避险资产的吸引力。 【基本面解析】 分析认为，鲍威尔或因政治压力选择留任理事至2028年，以限制特朗普对理事会的控制。特朗普与鲍威 尔的矛盾由来已久，第二任期批评更甚，甚至试图以欺诈指控驱逐其他理事，相关案件将由最高法院审 理。 【最新现货黄金 ...

上周黄金市场在避险情绪下周初高开在4350.5的位置后行情小幅回踩给出4345的位置后行情强势震荡拉 升，到周五非农后周线最高触及到了4517.6的位置后整理，周线最终收线在了4509.95的位置后，周线以 一根略带上下影线的饱和大阳线收线，而这样的形态收尾后，本周市场延续多，点位上，下方3325和 3322的多和3368-3370的多和3377和3385多和3563的多减仓后止损跟进在4000持有，前一周4176和4174 的多和4187和4184的多以及4208和4205多止损跟进在4210持有，上周五4455的多减仓后止损跟进在4460 持有，今日4480多止损4474，目标看4500和4517，破位看4524和4532和4543和4552历史压力争夺。 央行购金和ETF持仓的增加表明贵金属的需求依旧旺盛，全球央行12月黄金储备继续增加0.93吨，总持 仓升至新高。 据央视新闻消息，记者当地时间1月11日获悉，据知情官员透露，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室 已对美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调查内容涉及美联储对其华盛顿总部大楼的翻修工 程，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目的范围向国会撒谎。 该知情官 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price experienced a significant increase of 4.10% last week, closing at $4,510.26 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][5]. Geopolitical Risks vs. Commodity Index Rebalancing - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran, and the rebalancing of commodity indices were the two main themes affecting the precious metals market last week [2]. - Protests in Iran against rising prices and currency devaluation have led to unrest, with threats from U.S. President Trump to intervene, further escalating tensions [3]. - The U.S. government's renewed interest in Greenland has drawn international criticism, particularly from Denmark and other European nations, highlighting the geopolitical landscape's impact on market sentiment [3]. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The influx of "safe-haven" funds remains a key factor supporting the rise in gold prices amid ongoing geopolitical headlines [4]. - Despite potential selling pressure from the rebalancing of major commodity indices, the focus may shift back to structural factors that drove price increases last year once this process concludes [4]. - The market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations of a breakthrough in gold prices, as indicated by the recent Kitco News survey showing a bullish consensus among Wall Street analysts [6][7]. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Commentary - The U.S. ISM manufacturing report indicated strong economic conditions, temporarily dampening expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but this sentiment quickly reversed following a disappointing non-farm payroll report [5]. - Upcoming inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, is anticipated to significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices in the coming week [5]. - The Federal Reserve's officials are expected to provide insights on interest rate changes, which could further impact market dynamics [5]. Price Levels and Projections - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices have stabilized above the $4,500 per ounce mark, with short-term resistance at $4,550 and potential targets of $4,630 to $4,700 [7]. - Domestic gold prices face short-term resistance in the range of 108-1038 CNY per gram, with mid-term targets pointing towards 1100-1200 CNY per gram [8]. - Silver prices are projected to face short-term resistance at $81-$85 per ounce, with mid-term targets of $99-$102 per ounce [8].

2026年开年首个重要贵金属行情里程碑诞生。亚洲市场1月12日上午10时许，国际现货黄金价格攀升幅 度超1%，盘中一度触及4563.14美元/安士，随后突破4600美元/安士整数关口，创下开年以来首次历史 新高。市场分析指出，地缘政治紧张局势升级、全球经济不确定性加剧，叠加市场对美国联邦储备局降 息预期升温，共同构成了此次金价飙升的核心驱动力。 从市场预期来看，投资者当前普遍预判美联储2026年至少将实施两次降息。业内普遍认为，低利率环境 通常会提升非收益性资产的吸引力，黄金作为典型的抗通胀、抗风险资产，在利率下行周期往往表现突 出。历史数据显示，2025年国际金价已走出"史诗级行情"，全年累计涨幅约七成，50次刷新历史纪录， 此次突破4600美元/安士，正是这一牛市行情的延续。 机构对后续金价走势普遍持乐观态度。汇丰银行明确指出，随着地缘政治风险持续扩散及全球债务问题 加剧，金价有望在2026年上半年攀升至5000美元/安士的新高度。世界黄金协会更预测，2026年金价整 体涨幅可能达15%至30%，突破5000美元/安士关口是大概率事件。摩根大通、高盛等机构也强调，全球 央行购金的结构性趋势将持续为金价提供 ...

2026.01. 12 本文字数：1127，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 1月12日亚洲早盘，COMEX黄金期货价格直线拉升，站上每盎司4600美元，时隔两周再度刷新历史 新高。 截至发稿，最高触及4612美元/盎司。 COMEX白银价格跟涨，截至发稿报83.9美元/盎司，日内大涨5.7%。 贺利氏金属（Heraeus Metals）贵金属交易员亚历山大·楚姆夫（Alexander Zumpfe）表示，如果地 缘政治紧张局势进一步扩大，或者美国数据强化了美联储将采取比目前预期更宽松政策的预期，那么 黄金很可能将持续刷新纪录。 市场分析人士指出，金银价格持续高位运行既得益于地缘风险的不确定性的刺激，也来自需求端长期 高增长。 央行最新数据显示，截至2025年12月末，国内黄金储备报7415万盎司（约2306.323吨），为连续第 14个月增持黄金。 "考虑到中国央行黄金储备相对于其他主要经济体的水平，中国央行的购金行为将持续为金价提供支 撑。"高盛全球团队预测，截至 2026年12月，金价将达到4900美元/盎司。 国内贵金属期货继续走高，沪金期货主力连续合约涨约3%，报1031元/克；沪银期货 ...

武汉科技大学证券研究所所长王伟接受极目新闻记者采访时表示，从去年到现在，黄金持续大涨，这既 需要从黄金与生俱来的避险属性进行解读，也要结合当前资本市场和国际局势予以分析，他从四个维度 进行了解读。 第一，黄金是跟美元挂钩的，从历史数据看，黄金价格与美元走势通常呈现出反向关系，这主要是因为 美元是国际黄金市场上的标价货币，当美元贬值时，意味着同样数量的美元能够购买到的黄金数量减 少，为了维持黄金的价值平衡，黄金价格就会上涨。特别是当前美元处于降息周期，美元贬值，带动汇 率下降，黄金价格上升是必然的。 受美委关系紧张、伊朗局势等影响，现货黄金周一开盘不久即冲上4600美元，最高报4600.79美元，时 隔两周再度创下历史新高。与此同时，现货白银最高冲击83.974美元，也一举突破两周前高点，再创历 史新高。 | 沪银主连 | 20423 | | --- | --- | | ag99999 | +11.57% | | 炉井本 | 1025.56 | | au99999 | +2.50% | | 细约金主连 | 4593.7 | | GC0W | +2.06% | | 伦敦银规 | 83.298 | | AGUSDO ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices surged, reaching a high of $4612 per ounce, marking a new historical peak after two weeks [1][2] - COMEX silver prices also increased, reported at $83.9 per ounce, with a daily rise of 5.7% [3] - Domestic precious metal futures continued to rise, with Shanghai gold futures up approximately 3% at 1031 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures up 12% at 20614 yuan per kilogram [3] Group 2 - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, driving up safe-haven demand for precious metals, while expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also increased following U.S. employment data [3] - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, currently holding 7.415 million ounces (approximately 2306.323 tons), which is expected to support gold prices [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices could reach $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026, while JPMorgan has raised its forecast to $5000 per ounce by Q4 2026, with a long-term outlook of $6000 per ounce [4] Group 3 - The global central banks are adjusting their reserve structures, reducing reliance on U.S. dollar assets and viewing gold as a core tool to hedge against sovereign currency credit risks [4] - The World Gold Council reports that gold is expected to perform well in 2025, with potential price increases of 15% to 30% in 2026 based on current levels [4] - Morgan Stanley maintains its average silver price forecast at $40.1 per ounce for 2026, while Bank of America has a more optimistic outlook, predicting silver prices could peak between $135 and $309 per ounce [5]