投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-02-24 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.3 | 49.0 | 49.1 | | 2026-01-31 | 2026/01 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.2 | | 2026-02-14 | 2026/01 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 72208 | 8178 | 70546 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M0:同比 | % | 2.7 | 10.6 | 17.2 | | 2026-02-13 | 2026/01 | M1:同比 | % | 4.9 | 6.2 | ...

据央视新闻报道，美国伊利诺伊州州长、民主党人普里茨克向总统特朗普致函，要求将该州每个家庭应得的1700美元关税返还，总额高达87亿美元。有分析 认为，如果将这一逻辑推广至全国，特朗普可能需要退还超过1750亿美元的关税。这笔庞大的资金对于特朗普政府意味着什么？真的可能退还到每个州、每 个家庭、每个企业手中吗？现实看起来并不简单。 第三，特朗普寻求访华合作。在官宣3月底访华前，他已在中美关系及地缘政治上做出一系列动作，显示他在谈判中可能会处于被动局面，需要凭空造牌以 增加筹码。例如，通过炒作台湾议题，推动中国购买更多大豆，以缓解国内压力。至于1750亿美元关税是否会退还，其实答案已很明确——揣在特朗普兜里 的钱，很难再回到公众手中。白宫副发言人甚至称，伊利诺伊州的退款要求只是追逐愚蠢头条新闻。关税成本的90%最终由美国企业和消费者承担，普通民 众几乎无法证明自己承担了多少关税份额，自然也没有法律上的退款资格。企业或可通过诉讼争取，但最终仍是精英阶层间的博弈。特朗普，这次注定成为 老赖，不仅涉及财政收支，更关系到他能否维持自身权威。 然而，在如此无休止的国内政治内斗之下，美国还能有多少精力真正投入大国博弈？在处理 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-24 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 春节前最后一个交易日螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3055 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 5 元/吨（0.163%）。当 日注册仓单 19597 吨, 环比增加 2694 吨。主力合约持仓量为 194.24 万手，环比减少 87095 手。现货市场 方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3220 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/ 吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘价为 3222 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.124%）。 当日注册仓单 332840 吨, 环比增加 34986 吨。主 ...

| 棕榈油：地缘扰动油价上涨，基本面逻辑延续节前 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆平稳运行，豆油区间反弹 | 2 | | 豆粕：春节美豆变化不大，关注美国关税政策 | 4 | | 豆一：关注市场情绪，或稳中偏强 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：预计小幅高开20260224 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：假期现货不及预期 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 【基本面跟踪】 棕榈油：地缘扰动油价上涨，基本面逻辑延续 节前 豆油：美豆平稳运行，豆油区间反弹 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 油脂基本面数据 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 同期减少 23.82%，出油率环比上月同期增长 0.3%，产量环比上月同期减少 22.24% | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：春节美豆变化不大，关注美国关税政策 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） 4674 | | +98（+2.14%） | na na | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） 2800 | | +18（+0.65%） | na na | | | CBOT大豆05（美分/蒲） 1150.25 | | -3.5（-0.30%） | 注： 国内豆类为2月13日下午收盘价， 夜盘 | | | CBOT豆粕05（美元/短吨） 312.2 | | -2.0（-0.64%） | 休市。美豆类收盘价为2月23日收盘价。 | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | （节前2月14日报价） | | | 山东 （元/吨） 日照： | 3070～3090； | 青岛： | 3090～3100； 烟台： 3080～3120； | | 现 货 | 华东 （元/吨） 张家港、 | 泰州、 | 南通、镇江： | 3050～3060； 南京、 宁波 ...

❤①新年好，本篇内容较多，照旧我们把重要结论放在前面：看好贵金属>能源金属>战略金属=工业金属。以今 日港股为例，市场主要还是对地缘和关税反应，2.23日港股有色板块全线大涨：香港有色金属指数+4.51%，居港 股行业涨幅前列。个股普涨、放量上行，资金流入明显，呈现贵金属领涨、基本金属/新能源金属共振格局。 其中： 1. 黄金/贵金属（最强） 潼关黄金+12%、赤峰黄金+7%+、紫金黄金国际 中国黄金国际+6%+、紫金矿业 万国黄金 招金矿业+5%+ -核心：地缘避险+金价修复+央行购金+降息预期 2. 锂/新能源金属（次强） 赣锋锂业+8%+、天齐锂业+3%+ -核心：节前持续去库+需求预期较好+板块估值修复+大盘反弹 3. 铜铝/基本金属（跟涨） 五矿资源+6%+、江西铜业+4%+、中国宏桥、洛阳钼业+2%–3% -核心：关税扰动暂缓+油价上行+经济复苏预期+美元走弱 标的选择上，经历了春节前的调整，很多标的又出现较好买点，估值差异并不是非常大 1贵金属：1）黄金 紫金黄金国际、山东黄金、招金矿业、万国黄金集团、中国黄金国际、山金国际等2）白银 盛达资源、兴业银锡等 2能源金属：1）核心弹性标的：国城矿业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It takes into account factors such as overseas market fluctuations, policy changes, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations to offer investment suggestions for each market segment. For instance, the stock index futures are expected to be in a structural market, while the bond market is influenced by factors like financial data and "Two Sessions" policies [19][20][23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas market volatility during the Spring Festival holiday may affect the A - share market. The tariff rulings and subsequent tariff increase announcements in the US have caused market expectation chaos. The rise in oil and silver prices may stimulate the oil and gas, precious metals, and AI application sectors. The M1 - M2 spread narrowing is beneficial for market liquidity. The stock index is expected to be oscillating strongly, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices remaining strong. Suggested trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM\IC 2609 long + ETF short cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads for options [19][20]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The January domestic financial data shows that the money supply is stronger than the financing demand, and the holiday high - frequency consumption data is also divided. Overseas tariff policies are uncertain. The central bank's attitude to protect market liquidity is clear, which is favorable for the bond market. However, as the "Two Sessions" approach, bond market sentiment may become cautious. It is recommended to gradually stop losses on short positions in TS contracts and wait and see for arbitrage [23][24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indices declined. The impact of origin weather on production is limited, and the Brazilian export volume has increased. The US soybean price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to short at high prices [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price rose during the Spring Festival. Brazil's sugar production is almost over, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production is at a high level, the growth rate has slowed down. The domestic sugar supply is under pressure, but the international price increase may drive the Zhengzhou sugar price up in the short term, with a long - term bottom - oscillating trend [29][33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The external market prices of soybean oil and palm oil fluctuated. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the export decline narrowed. The geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel policy have an impact on the market. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the oil price is expected to be oscillating strongly [35][36][37]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The CBOT corn price rose. The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips for the outer - market 05 corn and short the 05 corn lightly at high prices [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price is declining, but the short - term decline may be limited. It is advisable to go long on the 05 contract in small quantities [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating narrowly. It is recommended to go long on dips lightly for the 05 peanut [43][45]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season, and the egg price is stable with a slight decline. It is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [46][48]. - **Apples**: The inventory removal speed is acceptable, and the fruit price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 5 - month contract on dips and conduct long 5 and short 10 arbitrage [49][50][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market price of cotton declined. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to increase. The domestic cotton market has certain support, and the price is expected to be oscillating strongly [52][53][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The total inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the overall fundamentals weakened. The steel price is expected to be oscillating weakly. It is recommended to short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [57][58]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal mines are gradually resuming production. The international and domestic coal markets need to be monitored. The coking coal price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [59][60][61]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The cost of ferroalloys has strong support. It is advisable to go long on dips as a long - term position [64][65]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The overseas gold and silver markets showed a trend of first falling and then rising. Geopolitical risks, the risk of US economic stagflation, and trade policy uncertainties support the price. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the 5 - day moving average [67][68][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical and macro factors support the price of precious metals. It is advisable to go long on platinum on dips and wait and see for palladium [70][71]. - **Copper**: The US tariff is expected to decline in the short term but may exist in the long term. The copper price is supported in the short term, and it is advisable to go long on dips [73][74]. - **Alumina**: The decline in the supply - side operating rate supports the spot price. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [76][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The tariff disturbance does not change the supply - demand support pattern. The aluminum price is expected to be oscillating strongly [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate strongly [83][87]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance. The price is expected to be widely oscillating, and it is advisable to go long on dips [88][89][90]. - **Lead**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to macro guidance and go long on dips lightly [91][92]. - **Nickel**: The market is dominated by macro factors. The low - position long - term positions can be held [93][94][95]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is advisable to buy on sufficient pullbacks [96][98]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of production of large factories. The price may rebound in the short term [99]. - **Polysilicon**: The industry is trying to maintain prices. It is advisable to seize low - price opportunities [100][102]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand is good, and the price is at a high level. It is necessary to operate cautiously [103][105]. - **Tin**: The concern about AI has increased. The price is expected to be oscillating at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro policies [107][108][109]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate is weak. The demand is declining, and the supply is changing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and stop profits on the 6 - 10 positive spread on rallies [110][111][112]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties are increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and conduct positive spread arbitrage [114][115]. - **Asphalt**: It is necessary to pay attention to the expected supply gap after the holiday. It is advisable to go long on the BU2606 contract on dips [116][117]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur supply is increasing, and the low - sulfur near - end is strengthening. The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [119][120][121]. - **LPG**: The international market is strong, and the domestic market is expected to be oscillating strongly [123][124][125]. - **Natural Gas**: The market trading theme changes frequently. It is advisable to exit the TTF or JKM positions and hold the HH short positions for the second quarter [126][127]. - **PX & PTA**: The geopolitical situation has increased the cost. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions [129][130]. - **BZ & EB**: The fundamentals of styrene are weakening. The price is expected to be oscillating and consolidating [131][132]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. The price is expected to be oscillating within a range [133][134]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [135][136]. - **Bottle Chips**: The spot supply is decreasing. The price is expected to be oscillating strongly [137]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand support is acceptable. It is advisable to hold long positions [139]. - **Plastics and PP**: The L contract warehouse receipts are flat, and the PP contract warehouse receipts are accumulating. It is advisable to wait and see for the L 2605 contract and short the PP 2605 contract lightly [140][141][142]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is necessary to wait and see [143][144]. - **PVC**: The price is mainly oscillating. It is advisable to go long on dips [146][147][148]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is expected to rise first and then fall. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [150][151][154]. - **Glass**: The price is running weakly. It is advisable to short glass and go long on soda ash on appropriate occasions [153][154]. - **Methanol**: Driven by geopolitics, the price is expected to be strongly oscillating [156][157]. - **Urea**: The price is rising strongly. It is advisable to go long on dips and pay attention to the 5 - 9 positive spread [159][160][161]. - **Pulp**: The US dollar quotation is rising, but the high inventory restricts the rebound. It is advisable to wait and see and conduct range trading [162]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the market rebound is limited. It is advisable to short on rallies [166]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the resumption of work after the holiday. It is advisable for aggressive investors to go long in small quantities [168][170]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The external market is strengthening. It is advisable to wait and see for the RU 05 contract and hold the short position for the NR 04 contract [171][173][174]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The warehouse receipts accumulated significantly before the holiday. It is advisable to wait and see for the BR 04 contract [175][177].

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 节前焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1121.0 元/吨；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1682.0 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、当地时间 2 月 21 日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，将把对 | | | | | 全球商品加征 10%的进口关税的税率水平提高至 15%。 | | | | | 2、美国最高法院公布关税诉讼案裁决结果，判定美国政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》 | | | | | 对相关贸易伙伴加征的对等关税、芬太尼关税等相关关税违法。商务部对此回应表示， | | | | | 正在对相关内容和影响进行全面评估。中方敦促美方取消对贸易伙伴加征的有关单边关 | | | 焦煤、 | | 税措施。 | | 黑色 | 焦炭 | 震荡偏空 | 3 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属周报（2.13-2.23） 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 上周回顾 2 每周周评 3 4 5 基本面数据 持仓数据 总结 | 指 标 | 前 收 | 最 高 | 最 低 | 涨 跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金2604 | 1110 1 . | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | - 0 11 . | | 沪银2604 | 19782 | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | - 0 02 . | | 黄金2604 | 5130 | 5131 | 4868 5 . | 83 70 . | 1 66 . | | 白银2603 | 84 57 . | 84 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 铂：受白银走强提振 钯：关税扰动再起，震荡偏强 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 523. 80 | | -3.87% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 525. 05 | | -2.96% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2171. 40 | | 4. 10% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2151.50 | | 3.44% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 416. 80 | | -3.08% | | | 价格 | 人民币现货铝金 | 395. 00 | | -1.50% | | | | 纽约锂主连(前日) | 1.736.10 | | 2. 36% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金(前日) | 1.765.00 | | 5.15% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | ...