Core Viewpoint - Michael Hartnett, a strategist at Bank of America, warns of a structural rotation in global assets as funds flee the dollar at an unprecedented pace due to the "overheating" policies of the Trump administration and tariff impacts [1][2] Fund Flows - Since the beginning of 2026, $104 billion has flowed into developed market funds in Europe and Japan, while only $25 billion has entered U.S. funds, indicating a significant shift in capital away from dollar assets [1][7] - The disparity in fund flows reflects a broader trend of capital outflow from the U.S., with notable inflows into the South Korean stock market, which saw its strongest four-week inflow since 2002, totaling $14.3 billion [7] Asset Performance - Year-to-date asset performance shows gold up 13.4% and oil up 9.5%, while U.S. stocks have slightly declined by 0.2%, and the dollar has dropped by 1.4% [5][12] - Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop of 24%, marking it as a clear loser in the current asset rotation [5] Historical Context - Hartnett draws parallels with historical market shifts, noting that major political and geopolitical events have historically triggered changes in asset leadership [8] - He suggests that the current environment marks the beginning of a new world order, with emerging markets and small-cap stocks poised to take the lead [12] Economic Indicators - The U.S. national debt is increasing at an alarming rate, with projections indicating that annual interest payments could rise from $1 trillion to $2.1 trillion over the next decade [13] - This growing debt burden may lead to the implementation of yield curve control, establishing a weak dollar as a new norm [13] Market Sentiment - Despite the outflow of funds from the U.S., market sentiment remains highly exuberant, with the Bank of America Bull & Bear Indicator at 9.4, significantly above the sell threshold of 8 [14] - Conditions for a reversal of this sell signal include a significant increase in cash levels, large-scale short covering in bonds, and a reduction in tech stock positions to neutral levels [17]

2026.02. 13 本文字数：3020，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 从去年开始持续到今年，美元、日元和瑞士法郎表现各异，预期不同，如今这三个传统避险货币到底 谁才是避险"神话"？ 日本三菱日联银行的货币分析师哈德曼（Lee Hardman）表示，日元和美元的避险吸引力都因政治 动荡而"受到削弱"。从长远来看，瑞士法郎被证明是G10货币中最佳的价值储存币种。 FXTM富拓首席中文市场分析师卢晓旸对第一财经记者表示，2026年伊始，全球外汇市场正处于一 个关键转折点。美元在年初虽有短暂回暖，但整体弱势格局几乎已经确定，是多重因素交织的结果。 去美元化加剧 斯米德资管（Smead Capital Management）的首席执行官（CEO）兼投资组合经理斯米德 （Cole Smead）也称："从长远来看，我们正处于美元熊市之中。美元在2002年达到顶峰，但仅仅 六年后，美元就跌至多年来的最低点。"2002年~2008年，美元指数跌约41%。 日元波动性增加 日元的难题更主要源于波动性以及不可预测性。2025年全年，日元汇率波动剧烈，干预传闻甚嚣尘 上。2025年初，日元对美元约为156。随着 ...

2026年，白银价格将如何变动？ 世界白银协会在2月13日发布的估算数据显示，全球白银市场正面临连续第六年的结构性供应短缺， 2026年预计缺口为6700万盎司。世界白银协会此前发布的报告显示，矿产白银产量预计仅微增1%至8.2 亿盎司，而高价刺激下的回收银总量有望自2012年以来首次突破2亿盎司。 工业用银方面，受节约措施(即减少单位产品白银使用量)以及光伏领域加速采用其他材料替代白银等因 素共同影响，2026年工业用银加工量预计同比下降2%，降至6.5亿盎司，为四年来最低水平。消费端同 样承压，2026年全球珠宝用银需求将继续下滑，同比下降9%至1.78亿盎司，创2020年以来新低，主因 创纪录的白银价格对印度等主要消费市场形成显著抑制。 2025年12月29日，白银价格创下83.971美元/盎司的阶段性高位。在2025年，伦敦银价累计上涨 144.82%，其涨幅在历史上仅次于1979年。刚刚进入2026年，白银价格就坐起了"过山车"。 白银正在上演"史诗级冲高—巨震暴跌—反弹与跳水交替"的剧烈行情：1月强势上涨，截至1月28日伦敦 现货白银飙升至117.44美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅超50%并创历史新高； ...

中国这些年一直在悄悄做一件事，不是造航母，也不是搞芯片，而是把手里那堆美国国债一点点往外扔。 这事干了整整十年，从没停过。 2013年的时候，我们手上美债超过1.3万亿美元，那时候全世界都盯着看，说中国是美国最大的债主。 可到了2025年10月，这个数字已经掉到6887亿，连原来的一半都不到了。 日本早就反超，稳稳坐在第一把交椅上，英国也排在我们前面。 曾经的"老大"，现在只能排第三。 这变化不是偶然，更不是临时起意，而是一盘下了十年的大棋。 你可能会问，干嘛要卖？ 美元不是全球硬通货吗？ 美债不是最安全的资产吗？ 这话放在十年前或许成立，但今天再信，那就太天真了。 美国这几年动不动就拿金融当武器，制裁这个、冻结那个，连自己盟友的资产都能说扣就扣。 俄罗斯被踢出SWIFT系统那天，全世界都明白了：所谓"安全资产"，不过是人家后院里的一间仓库，钥匙从来不在你手里。 中国当然看得清。 所以从很早开始，监管层就明确告诉金融机构——别把鸡蛋全放一个篮子里，美债可以有，但不能太多。 于是，减持成了常态。 2022年一口气甩掉1732亿美元，2023年又减508亿，2024年再减573亿，到了2025年10月，又净卖出1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of State Rubio revealed that nearly half of the countries no longer view the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency, marking a significant acknowledgment from the U.S. government about the declining status of the dollar [1][3] Group 1: Dollar's Declining Status - A majority of countries have stopped holding dollar assets as reserve currencies, indicating a shift in global financial dynamics [3] - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with annual interest payments exceeding $1.3 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dollar [5] - The weaponization of the dollar and fluctuating U.S. policies have created unease among global central banks, complicating the dollar's role in international trade [5] Group 2: Shift in Asset Preferences - Central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserves to avoid reliance on U.S. debt, with countries like China strategically reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds [7] - If confidence in the dollar wanes, funds will seek new safe havens, with gold being one option, though its limitations prevent it from fully replacing the dollar [9] - The euro is seen as a potential successor to the dollar, but internal complexities within the Eurozone raise concerns among investors [9] Group 3: Future of Currency Dynamics - The current trend of de-dollarization is more about reserve diversification rather than a revolutionary shift away from the dollar [11] - The U.S. government is taking measures to stabilize the dollar's position by seeking control over key resources, such as oil in Venezuela and rare earth elements in Greenland [13] - China's efforts to internationalize the renminbi are progressing, particularly in cross-border transactions and commodity pricing, positioning it as a reliable alternative in specific trade areas [13]

瑞安称，美元和日元"近来无疑失去了部分光环"，而瑞士法郎则"巩固了其作为首选避险货币的地位"。 从去年开始持续到今年，美元、日元和瑞士法郎表现各异，预期不同，如今这三个传统避险货币到底谁才是避险"神话"？ 日本三菱日联银行的货币分析师哈德曼（Lee Hardman）表示，日元和美元的避险吸引力都因政治动荡而"受到削弱"。从长远来看，瑞士法郎被证明是G10 货币中最佳的价值储存币种。 FXTM富拓首席中文市场分析师卢晓旸对第一财经记者表示，2026年伊始，全球外汇市场正处于一个关键转折点。美元在年初虽有短暂回暖，但整体弱势格 局几乎已经确定，是多重因素交织的结果。 他进一步分析道，其次，美联储降息预期调整，去年年底，市场一度预计2026年最高或会降息四次，但随着预期修正为两次，美元在今年年初有所反弹。目 前美元价格已基本消化这一降息步伐预期放缓的变化。CME FedWatch工具显示，6月降息至少25个基点的概率达75%，这将支撑第一、第二季度美元的进一 步走弱。美联储政策转向宽松，结合美国经济增长放缓，进一步削弱美元吸引力。 去美元化加剧 美国总统特朗普2025年加征关税的举动，引发了一场"抛售美国"的浪潮， ...

作者：春天 导语：黄金基金ETF凭借低费灵活、精准跟踪金价的核心优势，成为衔接个人投资者与黄金市场的最优 桥梁。 1. 宏观政策支撑：美联储降息周期开启，贵金属估值修复 黄金价格与美元、实际利率呈现显著负相关性。2026年以来，美联储加息周期正式落幕，市场普遍预期 年内将迎来多次降息，芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具显示，今年6月美联储降息25个基点的概率达 61%，美元指数随之承压下行，实际利率回落，显著降低黄金的持有机会成本。历史数据显示，降息周 期中黄金往往迎来结构性上涨行情，而黄金基金ETF（518800）作为跟踪国内金价的核心工具，将直接 受益于这一宏观红利，净值与金价形成同步联动，完美承接政策红利带来的上涨空间。 2. 需求端发力：全球央行购金+去美元化，构筑长期支撑 近年来，全球央行持续加大黄金储备力度，去美元化趋势下，黄金作为"非信用资产"的价值被重新重 视。2025年全球央行购金需求保持高位，官方机构增持863吨黄金，截至2026年2月，全球央行黄金持仓 量连续多个季度攀升，中国、印度等新兴市场国家购金需求旺盛，其中波兰央行计划进一步增持150吨 黄金，为黄金价格提供了强劲的底部支撑。 摘要： ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, methanol, steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, apple [5] Core Views - The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and expects a daily surplus of 373,000 barrels, mainly due to increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries [1][3][12] - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's cotton exports in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.5 million bales, a 6% year-on-year increase [1] - The COMEX's silver inventory has decreased, with a net out-of-warehouse volume of 4.7 million ounces in 24 hours [1] - Most domestic futures contracts fell at the night session, with crude oil down over 2% and caustic soda up over 3% [1] - The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - For precious metals, after market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The China-US trade "ceasefire" is expected to be extended [6] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan outright repurchase operation on February 13, with a 6-month term. The 6-month outright repurchase will be increased for the sixth consecutive month, with an increase of 50 billion yuan [7] Industry News - The Ministry of Education has issued an opinion on deepening the reform of key elements in vocational education teaching, focusing on adding new majors in fields such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [8] 2. Daily Returns of External Markets - Most external market varieties showed price declines on February 12, with London silver having the largest drop of 10.73%, followed by ICE Brent crude oil at 2.99% and London gold at 3.17%. Only a few varieties such as ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT wheat showed price increases [9] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**：The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - **Treasury Bonds**：Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**：sc crude oil fell 5.14% at the night session. The global oil market is facing a large surplus, with supply growth outpacing demand [3][12] - **Methanol**：Methanol fell 0.04% at the night session. The overall coastal inventory is basically flat, and the inventory process is slow [13] - **Natural Rubber**：Natural rubber slightly declined. With the approaching Spring Festival, risk control and position reduction are recommended [14] - **Polyolefins**：Polyolefin futures mainly fell. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and short-term prices follow cost fluctuations [15] - **Glass and Soda Ash**：Glass futures slightly fell, and soda ash futures mainly declined. The supply and demand of glass are gradually being repaired, while the supply of soda ash has slightly shrunk, and the effectiveness of supply and demand repair needs further observation [16] Metals - **Precious Metals**：Precious metals fell, with silver having a larger decline. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] - **Copper**：Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [18] - **Zinc**：Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Aluminum**：The short-term industrial situation of aluminum is relatively weak, but in the long term, low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relatively strong support for the price [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**：The market sentiment has turned weak again, and the futures price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to the right-side trading opportunities after volatility reduction and participate cautiously [21][22] Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**：The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend at the night session. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the trend of hot metal production, mine operation, and import policies [23] - **Steel**：The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to continue the volatile and weak pattern [24] - **Iron Ore**：The short-term iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak operation, and steel mills are expected to replenish inventory on demand [25] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**：Domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the external market, but the high inventory and sufficient supply in the far month are expected to continue to put pressure on prices [26][27] - **Oils and Fats**：Oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend at the night session. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is in the de-stocking cycle, and prices are expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [28] - **Sugar**：Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term, with the international sugar price breaking through the downward trend [29] - **Cotton**：Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the near term, with potential pressure on the upside in the short term [30] - **Hogs**：The short-term hog price may show a narrow-range shock, supported by sentiment and local inventory replenishment, but the overall upside space is limited [31] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**：EC rose 6.4%. Before the Spring Festival, it is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the verification of cargo volume expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [32][33]

2026年初，全球能源市场的宁静被特朗普的一条推特打破了。这条看似简单的社交媒体信息，实则是一场胜利宣言，最终引发了令人意想不到的连锁反应， 彻底打乱了印度原本精心计算的能源策略，也让中俄的能源合作意外地愈加紧密。 事情的经过其实并不复杂。特朗普为了拉拢印度，孤立俄罗斯，采取了极限施压策略。他宣布通过关税作为手段，逼迫莫迪政府切断与俄罗斯的石油供应。 特朗普在推特上高调宣称历史性胜利，表示莫迪已经承诺放弃进口俄罗斯石油，作为交换，美国将原本计划加征的50%关税降至18%。这显然是典型的特朗 普式交易——先用重击打击，再给出一颗甜枣，希望能达成自己的目的。 然而，特朗普未曾预料到的是，他的极限施压不仅未能让俄罗斯屈服，反而让印度陷入了困境。普京没有给莫迪留下任何余地，既然印度的态度含糊不清， 俄罗斯便直接断供，拒绝继续提供石油，毫不拖泥带水。 在2025年，印度可是俄罗斯石油的大客户。那时，印度每天进口俄罗斯约200万桶原油，享受着俄罗斯石油的低价优惠，每年节省约40亿美元。这对于长期 面临财政赤字的印度来说，无疑是一笔巨大的节约。然而，特朗普并不允许印度在两者之间左右逢源，要么选择购买美国石油并签署5000亿 ...

展望后市，黄金的长期趋势仍然坚实。在货币超发及财政赤字货币化背景下，美元信用体系受到挑战； 加上全球地缘动荡频发推动资产储备多元化，黄金作为安全资产的需求持续提升，全球"去美元化"的趋 势使得黄金有望成为新一轮定价锚，使得贵金属有望具备上行动能。"美联储降息周期+海外不确定性 加剧+全球去美元化趋势"对于金价构成支撑的逻辑仍然存在。投资者可持续关注黄金ETF国泰 （518800）和黄金股票ETF（517400）的投资机会。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 平安证券指出，金价短期呈现高位震荡。波动率加速抬升背景下，金价短期或仍将呈现宽幅震荡走势。 但长期来看，美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线未现拐点，黄金长期走势难言见顶，短期企稳 后，金价中枢或仍将抬升。海外宏观不确定性持续，中期黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段。长期来看特朗 普上任后，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑愈加清晰，黄金货币属性加速凸显，持续看好黄金中长期走势。 ...