Core Insights - The article discusses the key objectives for China's economic and social development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, emphasizing high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and improved living standards by 2035 [1] Group 1: Economic and Social Development Goals - The 14th Five-Year Plan aims for significant achievements in high-quality development, technological independence, and comprehensive reforms [1] - By 2035, the goals include substantial increases in economic, technological, and national defense strength, with GDP per capita reaching the level of moderately developed countries [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, crude oil prices rose by 3.48% to 469.8 yuan per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies [1][3] - Precious metals like gold and silver have stabilized after high adjustments, with gold being increasingly recognized as a safe-haven asset amid rising global tensions and financial system distrust [2][19] Group 3: Industry News - The U.S. housing market showed signs of recovery with a slight increase in existing home sales, attributed to lower mortgage rates and a slowdown in price growth [6] - In China, electricity consumption reached a record high of 7.77 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [7] - The automotive industry saw over 10 million applications for the vehicle trade-in subsidy, with new energy vehicles making up 57.2% of the total [8] Group 4: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.58%, while the European STOXX50 rose by 0.34%, indicating a positive trend in international markets [10] - The domestic stock index is expected to enter a phase of directional choice, influenced by recent U.S.-China trade tensions and upcoming policy directions from the 20th Central Committee [11]

Core Viewpoint - The intensification of geopolitical risks has heightened market risk aversion, leading to a technical rebound in gold prices after a significant decline of approximately 6.7% over the previous two trading days [1] Group 1 - As of the close on Thursday (23rd), the December gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $4145.6 per ounce, reflecting an increase of 1.97% [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.31%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.58%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.89% [2][3] - Major technology stocks also saw gains, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index up by 1.66% and the Wind China Technology Leaders Index rising by 2.65% [16] Individual Stock Movements - Honeywell International surged by 6.81%, 3M Company increased by 2.61%, and Amazon rose by 1.44%, leading the Dow [3] - Among Chinese concept stocks, Meituan rose by 5.01%, Alibaba increased by 3.65%, and Baidu gained 2.95%, leading the Wind China Technology Leaders Index [19][20] Oil Price Surge - International oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, with U.S. crude oil futures rising by 5.56% to $61.75 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 5.38% to $65.96 per barrel [21] - The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against Russian oil companies, contributing to concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil supply, which further drove up oil prices [21] Geopolitical Developments - The White House indicated that a meeting between President Trump and President Putin is not entirely out of the question, despite recent tensions [22] - President Putin stated that the recent U.S. sanctions are unfriendly and will not significantly impact the Russian economy, emphasizing the importance of dialogue over confrontation [25]

早上好，先来关注下原油市场。 周四晚间，国际油价再度大涨。WTI原油期货一度涨近6%，报61.93美元/桶。布伦特原油涨5.37%，报 65.95美元/桶。 截至收盘，WTI原油期货涨5.62%，报61.79美元/桶。布伦特原油期货涨5.43%，报65.99美元/桶。 消息面上，据央视新闻报道，当地时间10月23日，俄罗斯总统普京接受媒体采访时表示，美国对俄罗斯 实施新制裁旨在对俄施压，但不会对俄罗斯经济产生重大影响。 普京说，美国新制裁显然是不友好举动，无助于加强刚开始恢复的俄美关系。他强调，俄罗斯始终支持 继续对话。同时他认为，如果俄美能"就包括经济领域在内的长远未来展开严肃探讨，双方将在诸多领 域拥有合作空间"。 就美国总统特朗普关于美俄领导人会晤的最新言论，普京说，他与特朗普16日通话时，是特朗普本人提 议举行会晤，地点选在匈牙利首都布达佩斯也是特朗普提议。普京表示，如果在没有充分准备的情况下 草率对待此次会晤、致使会晤无法取得预期成果，将是一个错误。 普京表示，鉴于当前情况，美国总统决定取消或推迟会晤，更准确地说，特朗普表示的是推迟会晤。普 京重申，对话永远优于任何形式的对抗，更远胜于战争。因此俄方 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. Treasury on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, along with the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia, have heightened concerns over potential disruptions in Russian oil supply, leading to significant increases in international oil prices [1][2][4]. Group 1: Sanctions and Market Reactions - The U.S. sanctions now encompass all four major Russian oil companies, with Rosneft and Lukoil being the latest targets, which could impact nearly half of Russia's oil exports, approximately 2.2 million barrels per day in the first half of this year [1][4]. - Following the announcement, international oil prices surged, with Shanghai crude futures closing up over 4% and NYMEX crude futures rising more than 5.8% [2][4]. - The sanctions are expected to reduce India's purchases of Russian oil, as India currently sources over 36% of its crude imports from Russia [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is currently characterized by an oversupply situation, with OPEC+ gradually increasing production and major oil-exporting countries maintaining high export levels [5][6]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has consistently downgraded global oil demand growth forecasts due to expectations of a slowing global economy [5]. - Recent market indicators, such as the WTI crude futures structure showing a shift to a contango state, suggest increasing concerns over supply excess [5]. Group 3: Price Forecasts and Market Outlook - Despite the recent sanctions potentially causing short-term volatility in oil prices, the overall oversupply situation is expected to limit sustained price increases, with Brent crude projected to remain in the $60 to $70 per barrel range [5][6]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates further declines in Brent crude prices, potentially reaching $52 per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year [5]. - The long-term outlook suggests that geopolitical risks may diminish, allowing market fundamentals to regain dominance, with OPEC+ shifting towards a strategy of increasing production to maintain market share [6].

Core Market Data - On October 21, 2025, the international precious metals market experienced a significant downturn, with London spot gold prices dropping by as much as 6.3%, reaching a low of $4003.43 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013 [1] - Concurrently, spot silver saw an even steeper decline of 8.7%, setting a record for single-day drops since 2021. This plunge triggered a chain reaction in global markets, leading to a 1.98% drop in the A-share gold concept sector on October 22, with individual stocks like Western Gold and Zhaojin Mining falling over 5% [1] Market Performance - As of October 23, 2025, a phase of rebound was observed, with London gold rising to $4112.45 per ounce, a 2.7% increase from the low point. New York gold futures reached $4121.6 per ounce, reversing the daily change to a positive 1.38% [2] - The Shanghai gold T+D closed at 940.05 yuan per gram, and Shanghai gold futures at 942.28 yuan per gram, showing significant recovery from the intraday lows, although still below pre-crash levels [2] - The volatility of London gold reached 8.9% from October 21 to 23, far exceeding the average volatility of 2.1% in the third quarter [2] Market Linkage - During the gold price crash, global asset prices exhibited a notable "risk appetite recovery" characteristic, with the three major U.S. stock indices rebounding: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite saw weekly gains of 1.56%, 1.70%, and 2.14%, respectively [3] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell from 25.31 to 21.5, indicating a clear trend of funds moving from safe-haven assets to risk assets [3] - In the commodity market, silver followed gold's decline but rebounded more strongly, with London silver rising by 2.00% on October 23. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil prices increased from $55.96 per barrel on October 21 to $60.74 per barrel on October 23, a three-day increase of 8.5% [3] Core Driving Factors - The easing of geopolitical risks, particularly the temporary de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contributed to the decline in gold prices. A joint statement from leaders of Germany, France, and the UK on October 21 called for an immediate halt to military actions, which alleviated tensions [4] - However, this situation reversed within 48 hours as the U.S. announced significant sanctions against major Russian oil companies, leading to a rebound in gold prices on October 23, reflecting the "pulse-like" nature of geopolitical impacts on gold prices [4] Market Structure and Dynamics - The gold market had experienced a "historic" rise in 2025, with prices soaring from $2500 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $4380 per ounce by mid-October, a cumulative increase of over 75% [10] - The extreme rise in prices led to significant profit-taking pressure, with speculative positions reaching historical highs, indicating that the market was nearing a critical adjustment point [10][11] - The technical breakdown on October 21, where gold prices fell below the $4120 per ounce level, triggered a wave of stop-loss orders, exacerbating the decline [12] Industry Impact - The sharp decline in gold prices directly affected the profitability of gold mining companies. For instance, Barrick Gold's production cost in Q3 2025 was $1250 per ounce, and if gold prices remain below $4000 per ounce, profit margins could drop significantly [19] - Midstream refining and processing companies faced inventory devaluation pressures, with significant drops in processing orders observed shortly after the price crash [20] - Retail markets showed a split response, with some investors viewing the drop as a buying opportunity, while others chose to wait, leading to varied sales performance across different brands [21] Global Financial Market Effects - The gold price crash triggered capital outflows from emerging markets, particularly affecting stock markets in gold-consuming countries like India and Turkey [22] - Some localized risks emerged in the derivatives market, with a European investment bank reporting significant losses due to client defaults on gold forward contracts [23] - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term trend of central banks increasing gold reserves remained intact, with significant net purchases continuing [24] Historical Comparison - The current gold price decline contrasts with the April 2013 crash, which was driven by fundamental shifts in monetary policy, while the recent decline is attributed to short-term factors and market sentiment [25] - The ongoing increase in central bank gold purchases is expected to provide a stabilizing effect on the market, suggesting that the current adjustment may be a temporary phase within a broader bullish trend [26] Future Outlook - Short-term price movements are expected to oscillate between $3950 and $4300 per ounce, influenced by upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical developments [28] - Long-term structural factors, including the acceleration of de-dollarization and ongoing central bank gold purchases, are likely to support gold prices moving forward [31]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. [1] - For both gold and silver, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Position management should be done well, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be implemented. [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Gold Core Logic - Short - term risk aversion: Sino - US may meet, easing trade war risks; US economic stagflation risks increase, employment weakens, inflation is moderate, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are being realized. - Risk - aversion attributes: Trump cancelled his meeting with Putin, complaining that negotiations were at a deadlock; European leaders issued a joint statement supporting a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict through negotiations; Trump said a 100% tariff on China was unsustainable. - Monetary attributes: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials might stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months; Fed Governor Waller warned that US employment growth might have turned negative in the past few months; the Fed's Beige Book showed that US economic activity had hardly changed recently, but there were signs of cooling consumption; the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and hinted at further cuts. The market expects a 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in October and about 2 more rate cuts this year. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating strongly. - Commodity attributes: The CRB commodity index is oscillating downward, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. [1] Gold - related Data - International prices: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4116.60 per ounce, down $21.90 (- 0.53%) from the previous day and $108.30 (- 2.56%) from the previous week; London gold closed at $4070.00 per ounce, down $99.60 (- 2.39%) from the previous day and $134.60 (- 3.20%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 10.28 yuan (- 1.08%) from the previous day and 24.14 yuan (- 2.50%) from the previous week; gold T + D closed at 940.14 yuan per gram, down 8.70 yuan (- 0.92%) from the previous day and 27.15 yuan (- 2.81%) from the previous week. - Other data: The gold - silver ratio (London gold/London silver) was 85.22, up 2.32 (2.79%) from the previous day and 5.26 (6.58%) from the previous week; the gold - copper ratio (Comex gold/Comex copper) was 8.22, down 0.13 (- 1.57%) from the previous day and 0.27 (- 3.21%) from the previous week; the gold - oil ratio (Comex gold/WTI crude oil) was 69.33, down 2.55 (- 3.54%) from the previous day and 3.14 (- 4.34%) from the previous week. [2] Futures Company Member Net Positions in Shanghai Gold - Among the top 10 net - long positions, the top 5 totaled 69,265.00, an increase of 1,459.00 (19.21%); the top 10 totaled 99,490.00, an increase of 369.00 (27.60%); the top 20 totaled 121,427.00, a decrease of 2,459.00 (33.68%). - Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 12,561.00, a decrease of 343.00 (3.48%); the top 10 totaled 16,710.00, a decrease of 773.00 (4.63%); the top 20 totaled 17,961.00, a decrease of 815.00 (4.98%). [3] Silver Core Logic The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net - long positions and iShare silver ETF slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver slightly decreased. [5] Silver - related Data - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closed at $48.18 per ounce, up $0.02 (0.04%) from the previous day and down $4.35 (- 8.27%) from the previous week; London silver closed at $47.76 per ounce, down $2.19 (- 4.37%) from the previous day and $4.83 (- 9.18%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 11,467.00 yuan per kilogram, up 63.00 yuan (0.55%) from the previous day and down 550.00 yuan (- 4.58%) from the previous week; silver T + D closed at 11,463.00 yuan per kilogram, up 82.00 yuan (0.72%) from the previous day and down 518.00 yuan (- 4.32%) from the previous week. - Other data: The visible inventory totaled 42,134 tons, down 87 tons (- 0.21%) from the previous day and 670 tons (- 1.56%) from the previous week. [6] Futures Company Member Net Positions in Shanghai Silver - Among the top 10 net - long positions, the top 5 totaled 105,851.00, an increase of 7,921.00 (14.02%); the top 10 totaled 137,439.00, an increase of 8,513.00 (18.21%); the top 20 totaled 168,854.00, an increase of 5,725.00 (22.37%). - Among the top 10 net - short positions, the top 5 totaled 35,243.00, an increase of 655.00 (4.67%); the top 10 totaled 53,998.00, an increase of 2,396.00 (7.15%); the top 20 totaled 72,007.00, an increase of 4,059.00 (9.54%). [7] Fundamental Key Data Federal Reserve Data - The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the discount rate is 4.25%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.15%, down 0.25 from the previous value; the Fed's total assets are $6,647.249 billion, up $55.81 billion (0.00%) from the previous value; M2 (year - on - year) is 4.77%, down 0.06 from the previous value. [8] Other Key Data - The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.25, down 0.06 (- 2.60%) from the previous day and 0.09 (- 3.85%) from the previous week; the US dollar index is 98.88, down 0.06 (- 0.06%) from the previous day and up 0.19 (0.19%) from the previous week; the US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.51, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.01 (- 1.85%) from the previous week. [8] Inflation and Economic Data - US inflation data: CPI (year - on - year) is 2.90; CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30; core CPI (year - on - year) is 3.10; core CPI (month - on - month) is 0.30; PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.74; core PCE price index (year - on - year) is 2.91. - US economic growth data: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00, down 0.30 from the previous value; GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80, up 4.40 from the previous value; the unemployment rate is 4.30%, up 0.10 from the previous value. [10] Other Data - Central bank gold reserves: China's is 2,303.52 tons, up 3.11 tons (0.14%); the US's is 8,133.46 tons, unchanged; the world's is 36,268.07 tons, unchanged. - Geopolitical risk index is 250.95, up 96.88 (62.88%) from the previous value; VIX index is 18.47, down 0.13 (- 0.70%) from the previous day and 6.84 (- 27.02%) from the previous week; CRB commodity index is 297.93, up 2.52 (0.85%) from the previous day and 4.08 (1.39%) from the previous week; the offshore RMB is 7.1270, up 0.0002 (0.00%) from the previous value. [11] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations The probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Fed meeting from October 2025 to September 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions over time. [12]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant drop after reaching a historical high, with spot gold falling by 5.31% and silver by 7.11%, leading to a decline in consumer confidence and market activity [1][3][5]. Market Reaction - The sharp decline in gold and silver prices has led to decreased sales in the gold market, with many consumers adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for further price drops before making purchases [3][5]. - In Shenzhen's Shui Bei gold market, sellers reported unprecedented price fluctuations, with gold prices dropping from 990 yuan to 930 yuan per gram in a single day [3]. Price Dynamics - The recent price correction is attributed to several factors, including excessive previous gains, a strong dollar, the end of India's seasonal gold buying peak, and profit-taking by investors concerned about overvaluation [5]. - Citibank predicts that the end of the U.S. government shutdown and easing U.S.-China trade tensions may lead to a period of price consolidation for gold, with a short-term bearish outlook and a target price of $4,000 per ounce over the next 1-3 months [5]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts from Guosen Securities believe that the long-term bullish trend for gold will continue due to structural factors such as the reconstruction of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization, and ongoing central bank purchases [6]. - HSBC forecasts that the upward momentum for gold could persist until 2026, setting a target price of $5,000 per ounce, driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal deficits and the demand for gold as a hedge against debt sustainability risks [6].

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is fluctuating around $4,195 per ounce, following a significant increase in recent weeks, leading to profit-taking ahead of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices found support at the 21-day moving average of $4,005, suggesting a potential short-term bottom has formed [1] - Market expectations indicate a 97% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming policy meeting, which is expected to support gold prices as low interest rates favor non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - The upcoming September CPI report is anticipated to show a core inflation rate of 3.1%, and if the data meets or falls below expectations, it may further strengthen rate cut expectations, supporting a rebound in gold prices [3] - Geopolitical uncertainty, particularly the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China relations, has been a key driver for rising gold prices [3] - Recent developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including the temporary shelving of a meeting between Putin and Trump, and Ukraine's willingness to support a ceasefire through diplomatic means, have created cautious optimism, although geopolitical risks remain high [3]

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-23原油早报 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普表示，他认为与俄罗斯总统普京会面"不合适"，所以取消了和普京在布 达佩斯的会面，特朗普表示，他认为是时候对俄罗斯实施制裁了，他希望制裁不会持续太久；美国财 政部发布制裁俄罗斯石油的声明，在最新一轮制裁目标中纳入Rosneft（俄罗斯石油公司）、LukOil（卢 克石油公司），美方准备在必要时对俄罗斯采取进一步行动；特朗普称与印度总理莫迪通电话，通话 后特朗普表示莫迪向其保证印度将限制从俄罗斯采购石油。有报道暗示美印接近达成贸易协议，该协 议可能使印度逐步削减俄罗斯原油进口，从而推 ...