Core Viewpoint - International oil prices continue to rise due to concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian oil production amid ongoing domestic protests and restricted Russian oil exports, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply risks [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 9, the price of light crude oil futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange increased by 2.35% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for March delivery rose by 2.18% [1] - For the week, the main contract price of U.S. oil futures increased by a cumulative 3.14% [1] - The main contract price of Brent oil futures rose by a cumulative 4.26% [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that international oil prices are in a complex negotiation phase due to the dual impact of escalating geopolitical risks and a continuous rise in global crude oil inventories [1]

前言： 你若有缘看到金晟富的文章，相信你也肯定是看了无数篇的文章，寻找了无数个老师，却依旧做不好一 单的交易，我相信大家进来这个市场，追求的是长期稳健的收益，可现实往往让大家迷失了本心，偏离 了初衷。现在，是做出改变的时候了，找到属于自己的机会，晟富要做的就是用自己多年以来丰富的经 验和专业能力助你洞悉行情的涨跌，透过涨跌看透行情的本质。 从日线结构看，昨日收报一根长下影探底饱满反阳K，一般来讲，这种形态的企稳作用都相对强烈，也 意味着短期10均线位置基本确认完毕，这周的震荡区间下轨4400基本也就出来了，后续就看上轨4500的 突破，拿下之后或又展开新的高位区间或走趋势拉升；黄金4小时图来看：昨夜一波探底拉升之后，站 上了中轨和10均线，今日则双双成为顶底支撑，也就是守住4480-4460这个范围，此周期依然倾向于偏 强看涨；从小时线周期分析，价格下探4452后形成逐步抬升的低点，MACD指标在零轴上方维持金叉 状态，红柱温和放量，显示短期多头动能仍在延续；布林带轨道开口走平，价格依托布林中轨震荡上 行，当前运行至中轨与上轨之间，上轨4520附近存在初步压力，下轨4480则构成日内短期支撑；RSI指 标运行 ...

受持续的市场避险需求推动，贵金属价格全周上涨，其中纽商所黄金期货主力合约价格上涨3.96%，纽 商所白银期货主力合约价格上涨11.72%。9日美国三大股指集体收涨，全周累计上涨，欧洲三大股指集 体上涨。 9日美国三大股指集体收涨 全周累计上涨 当地时间本周五，美国劳工统计局公布去年最后一个月的非农就业报告，去年12月美国非农新增就业人 数低于预期，但失业率回落至4.4%，就业数据好坏参半、美股风险偏好回归，再加上多家芯片制造商 股价上涨的提振，美国三大指数本周五集体收涨，其中道指涨0.48%，标普500指数涨幅0.65%，纳指涨 0.81%。从周线上看，美股芯片板块本周强势上涨，提振了市场情绪，美国三大股指集体上涨，其中道 指累计涨2.32%，标普500指数上涨1.57%，纳指上涨1.88%。 美国去年12月非农就业人数增加5万人 年度增幅创2020年以来新低 大宗商品方面，因市场担忧国内抗议活动不断的伊朗原油产量可能中断，以及俄罗斯原油出口受限，地 缘政治紧张局势与供应风险双重因素的推动下，国际油价延续前一日的涨势。截至本周五收盘，纽约商 品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格涨2.35%；3月交货的伦敦布伦特 ...

本文转自【央视财经】； 受持续的市场避险需求推动，贵金属价格全周上涨，其中纽商所黄金期货主力合约价格上涨3.96%，纽商所白银期货主力合约价格上涨11.72%。9日美国 三大股指集体收涨，全周累计上涨，欧洲三大股指集体上涨。 9日美国三大股指集体收涨 全周累计上涨 9日欧洲三大股指集体上涨 欧洲市场方面，本周五，受矿业巨头"力拓"与"嘉能可"合并谈判的消息提振，嘉能可公司股价大涨，科技股领涨助推欧洲三大股指当天全线收涨。其 中，英国富时100指数上涨0.80%，法国CAC40指数上涨1.44%，德国DAX指数涨0.53%。 9日国际油价上涨 全周布油涨超4% 当地时间本周五，美国劳工统计局公布去年最后一个月的非农就业报告，去年12月美国非农新增就业人数低于预期，但失业率回落至4.4%，就业数据好 坏参半、美股风险偏好回归，再加上多家芯片制造商股价上涨的提振，美国三大指数本周五集体收涨，其中道指涨0.48%，标普500指数涨幅0.65%，纳 指涨0.81%。从周线上看，美股芯片板块本周强势上涨，提振了市场情绪，美国三大股指集体上涨，其中道指累计涨2.32%，标普500指数上涨1.57%，纳 指上涨1.88%。 ...

地缘风险溢价重回能源市场，原油价格录得自去年6月以来最长的周连涨纪录。 据环球时报，伊朗骚乱已持续数日，伊朗最高国家安全委员会指责美国和以色列策划了伊朗动乱。伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊称，骚乱分子想通过破 坏公共财物从而取悦另一个国家的总统。 美国总统特朗普则警告称，如果伊朗方面对相关人员死亡事件负有直接责任，"他们将付出惨痛的代价"。他还称，若再有人员死亡，美国将对伊 朗进行"严厉打击"。 市场焦点已从委内瑞拉转向伊朗。前者在特朗普称取消进一步行动后一度令油价短暂回落，但伊朗作为更大的产油国和出口国，其潜在供应中断 的影响远超委内瑞拉。 周五WTI原油期货价格一度涨超3%，尽管尾盘涨幅回落，但过去两个交易日累涨超过5%，同时连涨三周、创下去年6月以来最长的周连涨纪录。 （WTI原油期货价格本周表现强劲） 此外期权市场也反映了风险偏好的转变，看涨期权的偏斜程度已达到自7月以来美国原油期货的最高水平，交易员正在为应对潜在的价格飙升支付 自去年夏天以色列与伊朗交火以来最高的保险溢价。 尽管价格走高，基本面压力依然存在，高盛指出其客户对油价的看跌程度为十年来之最。然而，正是这种极度的看跌情绪叠加突发的地缘政治风 险，可能 ...

Economic Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December 2025, below the expected increase of 70,000 and the previous value of 64,000 [1] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. for December 2025 was reported at 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5% and the previous 4.6% [1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The release of the employment data had minimal impact on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with no expectations for a rate cut in January [1] - The probability of a rate cut in March dropped to 30%, and in April, it fell below 50% [1] - Morgan Stanley predicts rate cuts of 25 basis points in June and September, while Citigroup expects cuts in March, July, and September [1] Commodity Market Reaction - Following the employment data, silver prices surged significantly, with spot silver in London rising by 4.11% and New York silver futures increasing by 6.18% [2] - WTI crude oil futures for February rose by 2.35% to $59.12 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 3.14% [3] - Brent crude oil futures for March increased by 2.18% to $63.34 per barrel, with a weekly rise of 4.26% [3] Geopolitical Factors - U.S. President Trump announced a collaboration with the Venezuelan government regarding an oil tanker, indicating potential changes in U.S. policy to allow oil companies to operate in Venezuela [3] - Trump mentioned that major oil companies would invest at least $100 billion to rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure [3] Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in oil prices is primarily a rebound from previous declines, influenced by geopolitical tensions and expectations regarding Venezuelan oil supply [5] - The CBOE Oil Volatility Index (OVX) increased from 28.4% to 35.8%, indicating heightened market volatility [5] - Despite the current price increases, long-term forecasts suggest that oil prices may remain in a downward trend, with Brent crude expected to trade between $59 and $63 per barrel [6] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global oil market is anticipated to face oversupply issues, with a projected surplus of 3.8 million barrels per day by 2026 [6][7] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.832 million barrels, providing some short-term support for oil prices [5] - The potential return of Russian oil to the market following the resolution of the Ukraine conflict could exert downward pressure on oil prices [7]

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, gold emerged as the best-performing mainstream asset, with a price increase of nearly 60% within the year and 138% over two years, outperforming major indices and real estate returns in first-tier cities [1][2][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Surge - Major driver: China reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, initiating a "gold-Treasury bond" swap strategy, with a significant reduction in U.S. debt holdings from $1.3 trillion in 2013 to below $700 billion by 2025 [9][10]. - Fundamental support: The weakening of U.S. dollar credit, with the national debt exceeding $38 trillion and concerns over debt repayment capabilities, led to gold being viewed as a safe haven [15][17]. - Direct drivers: Increased geopolitical risks and persistent inflation pressures contributed to heightened demand for gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [20][22]. - Additional support: Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 are expected to further boost gold prices, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [24]. Group 2: Impact on the Gold Industry Chain - The upstream gold mining sector benefited the most from rising gold prices, with companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold reporting significant profit increases due to fixed production costs [26][27]. - The midstream refining and processing sector experienced limited benefits, facing cost pressures from rising raw material prices, with profit margins remaining relatively low [30][33]. - The downstream jewelry retail sector faced challenges, as high gold prices suppressed decorative purchases while increasing procurement costs, leading to overall performance declines for many retailers [34][38].

Core Viewpoint - The market rally at the beginning of 2026 may face challenges due to high stock valuations and the risk of not meeting earnings expectations [1][2]. Valuation and Earnings Expectations - The forward price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the S&P 500 is currently 22 times, significantly above the 10-year average of 18.7 times, indicating a high valuation similar to the peak in January 2022, which preceded a bear market [2]. - S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow by 15% for the year, with the strongest growth expected in Q4 at 18.1% [3]. Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The December jobs report showed only 50,000 jobs created, falling short of the consensus estimate of 70,000, which could dampen optimism regarding corporate earnings in early 2026 [4]. - There is uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, which are anticipated to occur if inflation continues to cool, but the current stock market levels complicate this scenario [5]. Geopolitical and Regulatory Risks - The Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could significantly impact market dynamics, with potential for additional sectoral tariffs if current tariffs are deemed illegal [6]. - Geopolitical risks have resurfaced, particularly following actions taken by the Trump administration regarding Venezuela, which could further influence market stability [7].

宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 类别 宏观贵金属周报 日期 2026 年 1 月 9 日 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 美国入侵委内瑞拉推高地缘政治 风险 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：年末中美经济企稳回升 2025 年 12 月中国制造业 PMI 反季节回升至 50.1%，为 2025 年 4 月份以来首 次回到扩张区间。其中生产指数、新订单指数和新出口指数环比均回升 1.5 个百 分点左右，显示出中美博弈竞争阶段性缓和对中国出口和整体经济的刺激作用； 积压订单指数环比回升 0.1 个百分点至 50.2%，采购量指数环比大增 1.6 个百分 点至 51.1%，显示制造业企业积极采购原材 ...

中盛期货 能化板块周度报告 中盛期货 20260109 张伟伟 从业资格证号：F0269806 投资咨询证号：Z0002796 鲍玉虹 从业资格证号：F03149670 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 中盛期货 聚酯板块数据周报 中盛期货 宏观及原油重要资讯一览 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普8日再次就伊朗骚乱事件发出威胁，称如再有人员死亡，美国将对伊朗进行"严厉打击"。伊朗的原油出口星 在近年保持韧性，且紧邻霍尔木兹海峡，对全球能源运输咽喉的控制能力较强。一旦地缘冲突升级导致伊朗原油供应中断或霍尔木兹海峡航 运受阻，对全球原油市场的影响较大。 据Lloyds List Intellgence和另一海事安全消息来源周四发布的公告称，一艘驶往俄罗斯的油轮在黑海遭遇无人机袭击，促使其请求土耳 其海岸警卫队援助并改变航线。 3 1 2 中盛期货 聚酯板块期现货价格走势 据央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普日前称，将让美国大型石油公司前往委内瑞拉投资，维修该国石油基础设施并为美国"创造收益"。这一 表态进一步显露了美方染指委内瑞拉石油资源的企图。不过，美业内人士却普遍认为，目前美国石油企业在委内瑞拉的投资意愿相当低。 按当前披霸的最 ...