Core Insights - The report indicates that after the tariff impact, there is a need for policies to stimulate domestic demand, with expectations for more incremental policies to be introduced in the upcoming Politburo meeting, particularly in consumption, real estate, and livelihood areas [2][5][10] - The report highlights that the recent tariff adjustments have led to a marginal improvement in the negative impacts of tariffs, with the market expected to recover and enter an upward cycle [2][9] - The report emphasizes that the focus for the year will be on domestic demand policies and the application of AI technologies [9][10] Policy Directions - Consumption policies are expected to be strengthened, with historical precedents showing that direct cash subsidies and supply-side optimization are effective during severe external shocks [11][12] - The real estate sector may see increased efforts in city-specific policies and urban village renovations, aiming to stabilize the housing market [13] - Livelihood policies may include nationwide childbirth subsidies and measures to stabilize employment, reflecting a broader commitment to social welfare [14] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the recent fluctuations in the A-share market were primarily due to external shocks, including trade tensions and global market volatility [5][6] - The report indicates that the sales of excavators and new energy vehicles have shown significant year-on-year growth, suggesting a recovery in certain sectors [5] - The report mentions that the ETF market has seen record inflows, indicating strong institutional support for the A-share market [44][46] Tariff Exemptions - The report details that the U.S. has granted significant tariff exemptions on electronic products, which could positively impact China's exports to the U.S., with an estimated export value of $100.2 billion affected by these exemptions [49]

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研报称，3月重点城市新房成交同比增长3.5%，二手房成交同比 增长37%，二手房成交占比继续提升。核心城市表现亮眼。北上广深成杭二手房成交套数同比增速均在 30%以上。百强房企3月销售金额降幅扩大，主要系二手房替代和新开盘项目减少，但核心城市项目首 开去化率明显提升。土地市场延续火热，核心城市单价"地王"频现，推高土拍溢价率。3月全国宅地成 交溢价率为17.15%，环比提升4.4个百分点。贸易战背景下针对内需的宏观政策积极有为、靠前发力， 看好房地产行业板块整体表现。 中信建投证券主要观点如下： 新房成交延续止跌，二手房成交处于历史高位 一季度重点40城新房成交面积2580万方，同比增长4.5%。其中3月新房成交面积为1124万平，同比增长 3.5%。在新开盘项目收缩背景下，3月重点城市新房成交面积仍实现正增长，且一线城市新房成交面积 同比增速达到两位数。二手房成交景气度好于新房，一季度重点13城二手房成交面积为1960万方，同比 增长33%，成交量处于历史高位。其中3月二手房成交面积为850万方，同比增长37%，北上广深成杭六 个核心城市一季度二手房成交套数增速均在30% ...

文 ｜ 明明 余经纬 秦楚媛 彭阳 周昀锋 王楠茜 王淦 耶鲁研究 表明若美国平均关税税率提升1%，则PCE会提升0 . 1% 。我们测算对等关税若全部落地（不考虑反制措施），美国加权平均关税税 率将提升1 7 . 9%，对应推升美国PCE 1 . 8%左右，会对美国经济产生较大的负面冲击。对等关税落地的时间差或为各个国家与美国谈判的窗 口，并且白宫公告表明"如果贸易伙伴采取重大措施补救非互惠贸易安排并在经济和国家安全事务上与美国保持一致，则降低关税"。当前泰 国、韩国等国家已表示将与美国就关税问题进行谈判。因而最后对等关税最终是否会全部落地还需观察等待，存在部分国家积极谈判后关税税 率下降或被豁免的可能性。 市场避险情绪浓厚，美联储降息预期升温。 特朗普对等关税落地推动1 0年期美债利率大幅下行，美股期货集体跳水，纳指期货跌幅至4%，市 场预期年内美联储降息次数升至3次。考虑特朗普关税落地后将在一季度后的美国通胀中显现，并且市场通胀预期已经在今年一季度明显上 升，因而此轮美联储降息或将较为被动，或会在就业等经济数据明显恶化后才重启降息。 ▍ 大类资产后续如何演绎？ 北京时间4月3日凌晨，美国总统特朗普在白宫 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on several sectors, particularly in chemicals, aviation, and refrigerants, indicating potential investment opportunities in leading companies like Baofeng and Wanhua [3][8]. Core Insights - The chemical sector has been in a downward cycle for over three years, but a significant decline in capital expenditure is expected in 2025, which may stabilize demand due to supportive domestic policies [3][5][6]. - The refrigerant sector is performing well, with rising market prices and expected profit increases in the second quarter [9]. - The aviation sector shows signs of recovery, with improving ticket prices and demand expected to rise during holiday periods [13][14]. - Companies like Manbang and China Civil Aviation Information Network are highlighted for their strong performance and optimistic growth forecasts [15][17]. Summary by Sections Chemical Sector - The chemical sector has faced a prolonged downturn, but capital expenditure is expected to decrease significantly in 2025, leading to a potential end to rapid capacity growth [3][5]. - Domestic demand is stabilizing as the real estate market's drag diminishes, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption [6]. - High upstream energy costs, particularly for crude oil, continue to pressure midstream chemical companies, but a potential adjustment in oil prices could present investment opportunities [7][8]. Refrigerant Sector - The refrigerant market has shown strong performance, with both market and long-term prices on the rise, leading to improved profits for companies in this sector [9]. Aviation Sector - Recent trends indicate a recovery in the aviation sector, with domestic ticket prices showing a narrowing decline and expected demand increases during holiday seasons [13]. - Boeing's limited capacity recovery continues to tighten global aircraft supply, benefiting the aircraft leasing industry [14]. Company Performance - Manbang's performance exceeded expectations, with projected compound profit growth of over 30% for 2025 and 2026, supported by strong online transaction capabilities [15][16]. - China Civil Aviation Information Network is expected to see optimistic growth in 2025, with a low valuation and potential for value appreciation [17][18]. Fiberglass Sector - The fiberglass industry is experiencing demand growth driven by wind power and consumer electronics, with leading companies maintaining strong pricing power [19][20]. Cement Sector - The cement sector shows signs of recovery with improved shipment rates and stable demand, particularly in southern markets, suggesting potential for price increases [21]. Glass Industry - The float glass industry faces challenges but is seeing marginal improvements in production and sales rates, with specific companies like Xinyi Glass highlighted for their competitive advantages [22]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals market, particularly copper and aluminum, is experiencing upward trends due to supply constraints and increasing demand, indicating a potential reversal in market conditions [26]. Titanium Industry - The titanium industry is poised for growth due to strong domestic demand and reduced import supply, with companies like Hunan Gold being recommended for investment [27]. Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to experience a downward trend in yields as monetary policy becomes more accommodative, indicating a favorable environment for bond investments [32].

Core Viewpoint - The national economic development plan emphasizes balancing the cultivation of emerging industries and the adjustment of supply-demand relationships, with more deployments aimed at resolving structural contradictions in the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development and Structural Adjustment - The report highlights the need to improve supply-demand relationships to keep the overall price level within a reasonable range, addressing structural contradictions in industries such as petrochemicals, steel, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and lithium batteries [2]. - New productivity cultivation focuses on cutting-edge industries like low-altitude economy, commercial aerospace, biomanufacturing, quantum technology, future energy, embodied intelligence, and 6G, while optimizing the structure of established industries like new energy and semiconductors [2]. Group 2: Domestic Demand Expansion Policies - The focus of domestic demand expansion policies remains on infrastructure, manufacturing investment, and consumption, with increased funding for trade-in programs from 150 billion to 300 billion yuan to promote durable goods consumption [3]. - Investment in manufacturing is set to increase from 150 billion to 700 billion yuan, while special bond issuance is expected to rise from 3.9 trillion to 4.4 trillion yuan, with a significant portion directed towards real estate [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Budget Report Insights - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate is expected to increase significantly this year, benefiting from the second set of accounts, with a projected growth of 9.3% compared to 2024 [4]. - The shift of consumption tax collection to local governments aims to alleviate the imbalance in local revenue and expenditure, while new tax systems for emerging industries are expected to balance tax burdens between new and traditional sectors [4]. Group 4: Trade and External Factors - The impact of U.S. tariffs and reduced overseas restocking is beginning to affect exports, particularly in the semiconductor supply chain, with labor-intensive product exports experiencing a notable decline [5]. - The upcoming U.S. tariffs and the results of the "America First Trade Policy" memorandum are anticipated to further influence China-U.S. trade relations [5].