Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - 8月中国经济整体表现低于市场预期，内需需持续发力以保持经济较快增长，部分逆周期调节政策或近期落地，临近假期国债期货短线或震荡，交易型投资建议波段操作 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - 周一国债期货主力合约开盘全线小幅高开，多数早盘震荡走低、午后横向波动，30年期回调幅度大，截至收盘30年期国债期货主力合约TL2512下跌0.47%，10年期T2512下跌0.01%，5年期TF2512下跌0.04%，2年期TS2512下跌0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information - 公开市场：周一央行开展2886亿元7天期逆回购操作，当日有2405亿元逆回购到期，实现净投放481亿元 [1] - 资金市场：周一银行间资金市场隔夜利率基本不变，DR001全天加权平均为1.31%，DR007全天加权平均为1.59% [1] - 现券市场：周一银行间国债现券收盘收益率多数上行，2年期到期收益率上行0.43个BP至1.51%，5年期上行1.62个BP至1.64%，10年期上行0.89个BP至1.89%，30年期上行2.40个BP至2.24% [1] - 中共中央政治局9月29日召开会议研究制定十五五规划重大问题，二十届四中全会将于10月20日至23日在北京召开 [1] - 9月29日国家发改委表示新型政策性金融工具规模5000亿元用于补充项目资本金，正抓紧投放资金，后续将督促开工建设形成实物工作量，还将持续发力实施宏观政策并加强经济监测 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - 8月中国经济低于预期，内需需发力，部分逆周期调节政策或落地，8月工业企业利润同比大幅增长有去年同期低基数原因，央行将保证流动性充裕，周一国债期货主力合约高开后受股指上涨制约回调，超长品种回调多 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - 交易型投资进行波段操作 [2]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI in China increased by 0.4 percentage points to 49.8% in September, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - Factors contributing to this recovery include the easing of adverse weather conditions, the implementation of consumer loan interest subsidies, and the full rollout of the third batch of national subsidies for trade-in programs [1] - The production index rose to 51.9%, the highest in nearly six months, while the new orders index increased to 49.7% [1] Group 2 - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 51.0%, while medium and small enterprises had PMIs of 48.8% and 48.2%, respectively, indicating varying levels of manufacturing activity across different enterprise sizes [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI recorded a value of 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with the construction sector index at 49.3% and the services sector index at 50.1% [5] - Certain service industries, such as postal and telecommunications, showed strong activity with indices above 60.0%, while sectors like catering and real estate remained below the critical point [5] Group 3 - Economic forecasts suggest that the fourth quarter may see the implementation of new policy measures to support economic growth, including financial tools and potential monetary easing [2][4] - The National Development and Reform Commission is actively working on new policy financial tools, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at enhancing effective investment [4] - Proposed fiscal measures may include increasing support for equipment updates and extending special government bonds, which could significantly bolster the macroeconomic environment, particularly in manufacturing [5]

2025.09. 30 本文字数：3352，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 作为破解当前投资困境、推动经济高质量发展的关键抓手，新型政策性金融工具迎来新进展。 国家发改委新闻发言人李超29日在发布会上透露，为促进金融更好服务实体经济，推动扩大有效投 资，国家发改委会同有关方面积极推进新型政策性金融工具有关工作。新型政策性金融工具规模共 5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 李超表示，正会同有关方面，抓紧将新型政策性金融工具资金投放到具体项目，后续将督促各地方推 动项目加快开工建设，尽快形成更多实物工作量，推动扩大有效投资，促进经济平稳健康发展。 当前民间投资已连续3个月负增长，新型政策性金融工具有望向民营企业倾斜。第一财经记者了解 到，进一步促进民间投资发展的若干措施即将发布，部署拓宽民间投资空间，破除限制民间投资的各 种隐性壁垒。支持民间资本加大新质生产力、新兴服务业、新型基础设施等领域投资。 有望撬动6万亿投资 我国政策性金融工具运用由来已久。比如，2022年7400亿元政策性开发性金融工具应运而生，通过 补充项目资本金、撬动配套融资，对重大项目形成精准支持。 近期，投资增长持续承压。国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience volatile adjustments [2][4]. - The decline of the US dollar will push up copper prices [2][9]. - Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound [2][12]. - The decline in lead inventory will limit the price drop [2][15]. - Tin and aluminum will trade within a range, and alumina will remain weak. Cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22]. - Nickel prices will fluctuate at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations. Stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the short - term supply - demand and cost game [2][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, the closing price of SHFE Gold 2510 was 863.60 with a daily increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 870.42 with a 1.02% increase. For silver, the closing price of SHFE Silver 2510 was 10912 with a 3.07% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 10907.00 with a 0.66% increase. Gold trend strength is 0, and silver trend strength is 1 [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting; the National Development and Reform Commission announced new policy - based financial instruments; the US Bureau of Labor Statistics may suspend data release during a government shutdown; Trump mentioned an Israel - Gaza conflict plan; the value of US gold reserves reached $1 trillion [5][8][20]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 82370 with a - 0.12% daily change, and the night - session closing price was 83680 with a 1.59% increase. The LME copper 3M electronic - trading closing price was 10429 with a 2.19% increase. Copper trend strength is 2 [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission announced new policy - based financial instruments; investors worried about government shutdown delaying economic data; Freeport declared force majeure at the Grasberg mine; the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Copper Branch opposed "involution - style" competition; Foran Mining's project is expected to start commercial production; Argentina approved a copper project [9][11]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 21800 with a - 0.82% daily change. The LME zinc 3M electronic - trading closing price was 2886.5 with a - 1.23% change. Zinc trend strength is 0 [12]. - **News**: The US Bureau of Labor Statistics may suspend data release during a government shutdown [13]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16855 with a - 1.49% daily change. The LME lead 3M electronic - trading closing price was 2001.5 with a - 0.37% change. Lead trend strength is 0 [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission announced new policy - based financial instruments; investors worried about government shutdown delaying economic data [16]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 272410 with a - 0.61% daily change, and the night - session closing price was 279670 with a 2.62% increase. The LME tin 3M electronic - trading closing price was 35465 with a 3.05% increase. Tin trend strength is 0 [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver news, including Politburo meeting, new policy - based financial instruments, etc. [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20730. The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 2904. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20270. Aluminum trend strength is 0, alumina trend strength is - 1, and aluminum alloy trend strength is 0 [22][24]. - **Comprehensive News**: The National Development and Reform Commission announced new policy - based financial instruments and measures to promote AI application [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 121100. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12760. Nickel trend strength is 0, and stainless - steel trend strength is 0 [25][31]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia plans to shorten mining quota periods, adjust RKAB production, some nickel - iron smelting plants suspend production, and there are various regulatory and production - related events in Indonesia and China [25][26][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The date of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee has been set, which is from October 20th to 23rd, and it will review the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". Market expectations continue to improve, and the impact of macro - policies is gradually shifting from "removal" on the supply - side to "stability", with the incremental demand on the demand - side being the focus for the future [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments. Based on the project capital ratio of 20% and the new policy - based financial instrument ratio of 50%, it can drive investment projects worth 5 trillion yuan. Attention should be paid to the stabilization and recovery of the economic cycle in the fourth quarter. There are differences between internal and external expectations, with external negative impacts on global total demand rising and internal positive impacts on the economy rising [4]. Summary by Related Content Event Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided on September 29th that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd in Beijing. The National Development and Reform Commission announced on September 29th that the scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan, all used to supplement project capital [2]. Policy Background and Impact - The new policy - based financial instruments were first proposed at the Political Bureau meeting on April 25th, 2025, aiming to solve the problem of insufficient project capital and supporting funds, with the direction of "supporting scientific and technological innovation, expanding consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, etc." [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 29, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose. IF rose 1.49%, IH rose 0.81%, IC rose 1.71%, and IM rose 1.68%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday and pay attention to PMI data [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2510, IF2511, IF2512, and IF2603 were 4623.6, 4609.6, 4604.6, and 4579.2 respectively, all rising. The total trading volume increased by 44999 lots, and the total open interest increased by 24225 lots [2][3]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2510, IH2511, IH2512, and IH2603 were 2974, 2976.2, 2976, and 2977.8 respectively, all rising. The total trading volume increased by 37395 lots, and the total open interest increased by 17889 lots [2][3]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2510, IC2511, IC2512, and IC2603 were 7342.8, 7277.4, 7232.2, and 7058.8 respectively, all rising. The total trading volume increased by 24390 lots, and the total open interest increased by 4379 lots [2][3]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2510, IM2511, IM2512, and IM2603 were 7484.2, 7403.8, 7337.4, and 7114.4 respectively, all rising. The total trading volume increased by 41629 lots, and the total open interest increased by 2392 lots [2][3]. 3.2 Index Futures Basis - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts from September 3 to September 29 are presented graphically, showing the basis changes of current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter contracts [5]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions in Index Futures - The changes in long and short positions of top 20 members in various index futures contracts are provided. For example, in IF2510, long positions increased by 4586 and short positions increased by 5783 [6]. 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish trend [7]. - **Important Drivers**: - The Politburo meeting on September 29 studied major issues related to formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20 - 23 [7]. - The new policy - based financial instruments amount to 500 billion yuan, all used to supplement project capital [7]. - In the US market, there were various price movements in stocks, bonds, and commodities. In the A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.74%, with a trading volume of 2.18 trillion yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of the new policy financial tools aims for long-term goals, differing from the previous year's approach in terms of investment focus, funding sources, and economic impact [2][4]. Group 1: Investment Focus - The new policy financial tools, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, are entirely allocated to supplement project capital [4]. - Unlike 2022, which focused on stabilizing growth under significant pressure, the current tools are designed to support expanding domestic demand and technological innovation, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [6]. - The focus areas for investment include digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, consumer infrastructure, green and low-carbon initiatives, agriculture and rural development, transportation logistics, and municipal parks, with 20% of the funds required to be directed towards private enterprises [7]. Group 2: Funding Sources - In 2022, the funding for policy financial tools came from policy banks issuing bonds and central bank's PSL support, with a net financing scale of 3,934.4 million yuan in September [11]. - As of August this year, the net financing scale of policy bonds reached 3,923.8 million yuan, indicating that the initial funds for the new financial tools may already be in place, with a faster-than-expected actual disbursement pace [12]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The 2022 policy financial tools had a multiplier effect of approximately 3.5 times on infrastructure investment, while the new tools could potentially leverage 2.75 trillion yuan in new social financing, driving 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan in fixed asset investment [16]. - The new financial tools support both infrastructure and manufacturing investments, with a notable emphasis on high-tech industries and advanced manufacturing, enhancing growth in these sectors [16].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the resilience of China's economy despite external pressures, highlighting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in maintaining stable growth and advancing high-quality development [1][2]. Economic Performance - In August, key economic indicators showed fluctuations, with consumption growth slowing and investment growth weak. However, the overall economic operation remains stable, supported by continuous macro policy efforts [1]. - The manufacturing and service sectors demonstrated positive growth, with the added value of major industries such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 8.1% and 9.3% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - Industrial profits improved significantly, with profits of large industrial enterprises turning from a decline of 1.7% in the first seven months to a growth of 0.9% in the first eight months, and a monthly increase of 20.4% in August [1][2]. Demand Side Analysis - The effectiveness of policies is evident, with strong resilience in consumption and investment. Retail sales of products related to trade-in programs continued to grow rapidly, and manufacturing investment increased by 5.1% in the first eight months [2]. - The information service industry, aerospace equipment manufacturing, and computer and office equipment manufacturing saw substantial investment growth of 34.1%, 28.0%, and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - In foreign trade, the total import and export volume in August increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with both exports and imports achieving growth for three consecutive months [2]. Artificial Intelligence Development - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative aims for over 70% application penetration of new intelligent terminals and intelligent agents by 2027, with private enterprises playing a crucial role in this development [3]. - The NDRC plans to support various enterprises, including private ones, to participate in the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative through policy support, funding, and project involvement [3]. "Three North" Project - The "Three North" project is recognized as the largest and longest ecological protection and restoration project globally. The NDRC has released a comprehensive plan emphasizing larger strategic goals, systematic governance measures, and diverse governance models [4][5]. - The NDRC will establish a stable funding mechanism and enhance ecological product value realization to encourage participation from various stakeholders in the project [5]. New Policy Financial Tools - The NDRC announced the establishment of new policy financial tools with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital. This initiative is expected to accelerate project construction and promote stable economic development [5].

Market Overview - On September 29, 2025, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3862.53 points, up 0.9% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13479.43 points, up 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 3238.01 points, up 2.74% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Hong Kong stocks also experienced gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising 1.89% to 26622.88 points and a total trading volume of 3090.96 million HKD [1] - In the US market, all three major indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.15% to 46316.07 points and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.48% to 22591.15 points [1] New IPOs - Two new stocks were listed on September 29, 2025, with no new stock subscriptions [1] - Yunhan Xincheng, listed on the ChiNext with a stock code of 301563, had an issue price of 27 yuan per share and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.91 [1] - The company focuses on electronic component distribution and industrial internet integration, providing a full range of services from product selection to technical support [1] Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively promoting a new type of policy financial tool with a scale of 500 billion yuan to support effective investment in specific projects [3] - The NDRC aims to ensure that funds from this financial tool are quickly allocated to projects to promote stable economic development [3] Industry Licensing - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a satellite mobile communication business license to China Mobile, allowing it to engage in satellite communication services [4] - This move follows similar licensing for China Telecom and China Unicom, enhancing emergency communication and services in remote areas [4] Smart Technology Promotion - The NDRC is working to expand the market for smart terminals and intelligent entities by focusing on policy guidance, technological innovation, and market demand [6] - The initiative aims to support the application of artificial intelligence in key sectors such as education, healthcare, and transportation, promoting new products and applications [6]

Macro - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is promoting new policy financial tools with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aimed at supplementing project capital [1] - The NDRC will continue to implement macro policies to support effective investment [1] Company - DeepSeek officially released and open-sourced DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, which has significantly improved usability according to analysts [2] - Cambricon has achieved compatibility with DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp, indicating deep collaboration among leading companies in China's AI industry [2] Industry - Gold prices reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.42% to $3862.9 per ounce, and analysts predict further long-term price increases supported by factors like potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments released a plan for the mechanical industry, targeting an average annual revenue growth rate of about 3.5% and aiming for revenue to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2025-2026 [4] - The National Social Security Fund reported an investment return rate of 8.1% for 2024, with total assets reaching 33,224.62 billion yuan [5]