1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2511) are expected to oscillate and weaken. The LME inventory warrants remain at a low level, while the SHFE warrants continue to increase. The overall analysis of various indicators shows a mixed situation, with some indicators being bullish, some neutral, and some bearish [2][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22,010, and the basis is +70, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On October 16, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 50 tons to 38,300 tons compared to the previous day. On October 15, the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,800 tons to 67,466 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main net position is short, and the short positions increased, indicating a bearish situation [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (October 16) - The trading volume of all contracts was 192,896 lots, with a total trading value of 2.11928299 billion yuan. The total open interest was 219,855 lots, an increase of 15,504 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (October 16) - The prices of zinc concentrate, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide all showed varying degrees of decline or remained unchanged [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (September 29 - October 16, 2025) - As of October 16, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.556 million tons, an increase of 195,000 tons compared to October 9 and 21,000 tons compared to October 13 [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (October 16) - The total zinc warrants in the SHFE on October 16 were 67,466 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (October 16) - The total LME zinc inventory on October 16 was 38,300 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (October 16) - The prices of zinc concentrate in major cities across the country decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (October 16) - The prices of zinc ingots from major smelters showed varying degrees of decline [11]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The planned production value in September was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production in October is 509,600 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (October 16) - The processing fees of zinc concentrate in different regions are in a certain range, and there is no change in the price compared to the previous period [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (October 16) - In the trading of the zn2511 contract, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 151,006 lots, a decrease of 51,065 lots compared to the previous day. The total long positions were 62,557 lots, a decrease of 620 lots, and the total short positions were 60,446 lots, a decrease of 1,223 lots [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved. However, during the peak maintenance period within the year, the output is expected to decline [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1232 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 72 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.16% compared with the previous value, the price in Shahe remained unchanged, and the basis decreased by 2.70% [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1160 yuan/ton, which is the same as the previous day [11]. Supply in Fundamentals - Production profit: The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process is - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production process is - 114.50 yuan/ton, and the production profit has rebounded from the historical low [14]. -开工率和产能产量: The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 88.41%, and the weekly output is 77.08 tons, including 42.87 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output at a historical high [17][19]. - Industry capacity changes: From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 is 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual production of 100 tons in 2025 [21]. Demand in Fundamentals - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.23% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.13 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass shows a downward trend, and the demand for soda ash is weakening [27]. Inventory in Fundamentals - The inventory of soda ash plants nationwide is 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate of soda ash over the years [35].

Group 1: Methanol Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The methanol market is affected by the news that some freight forwarders' warehouses have suspended accepting Iranian goods, causing port prices and basis to strengthen significantly. The 01 contract fluctuates between real - world pressure and future expectations. The supply side has a resumption expectation for some inland plants, and the inland inventory structure is relatively healthy, supporting prices. The demand side shows weakness as traditional downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the expected new polyolefin plant production suppresses MTO demand. With high port inventory and weak basis, attention should be paid to the expected supply reduction due to overseas gas restrictions in mid - October. Overall, focus on overseas plant operations, sanctions on Iranian vessels, and actual import arrivals [1]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 closed at 2342 on October 13, up 35 (1.52%) from October 10; MA2605 closed at 2354, up 3 (0.13%); MA15 spread was - 12, up 32 (- 72.73%); Taicang basis was - 54, up 82 (- 60.29%); Inner Mongolia northern line spot was 2083 yuan/ton, up 15 (0.73%); Henan Luoyang spot was 2200, up 5 (0.23%); Taicang port spot was 2300, up 85 (3.84%); the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia northern line was 218, up 70 (47.46%); the regional spread between Taicang and Luoyang was 100, up 80 (400%) [1]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory was 33.94, up 1.95 (6.08%); methanol port inventory was 154.3 tons, up 5.1 (3.42%); methanol social inventory was 188.3, up 7.05 (3.89%) [1]. - **Operating Rate**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate was 78%, up 0.78 (1.01%); the upstream overseas enterprise operating rate was 72.1%, up 3.65 (5.33%); the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio was 104%, up 3.99 (3.99%); the downstream external - procurement MTO device operating rate was 86.28%, up 3.82 (4.63%); the downstream formaldehyde operating rate was 30.1%, down 2.7 (- 8.22%); the downstream glacial acetic acid operating rate was 85.1%, down 0.83 (- 0.97%); the downstream MTBE operating rate was 66.2%, down 0.39 (- 0.59%) [1]. Group 2: Polyolefin Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The polyolefin market still faces significant post - holiday inventory pressure. On the supply side, the PE operating rate continues to rise, with few planned maintenance, and domestic production is increasing steadily. Overseas end - of - year inventory clearance also impacts the market, leading to prominent medium - and long - term supply pressure. For PP, due to the sharp decline in propane and crude oil, its valuation has been significantly repaired, and attention should be paid to the device restart rhythm. In October, the new device production pressure is high, and the demand side lacks highlights. The supply - demand structure is loose, and the upside space of the 01 contract is limited [5]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: L2601 closed at 7053 on October 13, down 54 (- 0.77%) from October 10; L2509 closed at 7071, down 53 (- 0.74%); PP2601 closed at 6723, down 29 (- 0.43%); PP2509 closed at 6746, down 36 (- 0.53%); L2509 - 2601 was 88, up 1 (1.15%); PP2509 - 2601 was 20, down 40 (- 11.67%); the East China PP drawn wire spot was 6630, down 80 (- 1.21%); the North China LLDPE film material spot was 6980, down 30 (- 0.43%); the North China LL basis was - 30, up 30 (- 50%); the East China pp basis was - 90, unchanged (0%) [5]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory was 48.9, up 10.59 (27.67%); PE social inventory was 52.5, down 1.03 (- 1.93%); PP enterprise inventory was 68.1, up 16.11 (30.96%); PP trader inventory was 26.1, up 7.39 (39.48%) [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate was 83.9%, up 1.85 (2.26%); the PE downstream weighted operating rate was 44.4%, up 0.23 (0.52%); the PP device operating rate was 77.7%, up 1.14 (1.5%); the PP powder device operating rate was 39.3%, up 2.01 (5.4%); the downstream weighted operating rate was 51.8%, up 0.05 (0.1%) [5]. Group 3: Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For pure benzene, there are expectations of plant resumption and new capacity production, with high domestic supply. The demand side is weak as most downstream products are in loss, and some downstream devices plan to reduce production. The port inventory is decreasing. In October, the overall supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price driver is weak. For styrene, there are expectations of new device production and plant resumption, with increasing supply. The demand is affected by the holiday, with the seasonal peak demand providing some support but limited due to high downstream inventory. The supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price is under pressure [7]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil (November) was $63.32 on October 13, up $0.59 (0.9%); WTI crude oil (October) was $58.90, up $0.59 (1%); CFR Japan naphtha was $567, down $10 (- 1.7%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785, unchanged (0%); CFR China pure benzene was $703, down $3 (- 0.4%); pure benzene - naphtha spread was 136, up 7 (5.2%); ethylene - naphtha spread was 218, up 10 (4.7%); pure benzene (Sinopec East China listed price) was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged (0%); pure benzene East China spot was 5720 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.3%); BZ futures 2603 was 5682 yuan/ton, down 52 (- 0.9%); BZ basis (03) was 38, up 37 (3700%); pure benzene import profit was - 35 yuan/ton, up 13 (26.6%); exchange rate (RMB central parity) was 7.1007, down 0.0041 (- 0.1%) [7]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventory was 9.00 tons on October 13, down 0.10 (- 1.1%); styrene Jiangsu port inventory was 19.65 tons, down 0.54 (- 2.7%) [7]. - **Operating Rate**: Asian pure benzene operating rate was 80.1% on October 9, up 1.1 (1.4%) from October 2; domestic pure benzene operating rate was 79.3%, up 0.6 (0.7%); domestic hydro - benzene operating rate was 63.2%, down 0.8 (- 1.2%); phenol operating rate was 78.0%, unchanged (0%); caprolactam operating rate was 96.0%, up 2.2 (2.3%); aniline operating rate was 77.2%, up 2.3 (3.0%); styrene operating rate was 73.2%, down 0.1 (- 0.1%); downstream PS operating rate was 54.6%, down 1.7 (- 3.0%); downstream EPS operating rate was 40.7%, down 2.4 (- 5.5%); downstream ABS operating rate was 71.0%, up 1.5 (2.1%) [7]. Group 4: PVC and Caustic Soda Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For caustic soda, the spot trading is okay, and the overall price is stable with a slight decline. The demand from downstream alumina is average, so the caustic soda price is under pressure. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity change is limited, and the demand for alumina increment is also limited. In the context of supply - demand mismatch, the domestic spot price is expected to remain weak. There may be concentrated stocking in the fourth quarter of this year, and the short - term caustic soda price is weak, while the medium - and long - term has demand support. For PVC, the production enterprises' maintenance density has increased, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The domestic and foreign trade exports are gradually recovering after the holiday, but there is still inventory accumulation pressure in the short term. The external macro - environment is not good, and the demand in the peak season is not obvious. The overall upstream willingness to hold goods has decreased, and the export has relieved some surplus pressure. The short - term PVC price is under pressure [8]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% was 2593.8 yuan/ton on October 13, up 46.9 (1.8%); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda converted to 100% was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged (0%); East China calcium carbide - based PVC market price was 4610 yuan/ton, down 30 (- 0.6%); East China ethylene - based PVC market price was 4900 yuan/ton, unchanged (0%); SH2509 was 2614 yuan/ton, up 8 (0.3%); SH2601 was 2464 yuan/ton, down 6 (- 0.2%); SHITY was - 20.3 yuan/ton, up 38.9 (- 65.8%); SH2509 - 2601 was 150 yuan/ton, up 14 (10.3%); V2509 was 5175 yuan/ton, down 18 (- 0.3%); V2601 was 4721 yuan/ton, down 14 (- 0.3%); V24 was - 565 yuan/ton, down 12 (- 2.2%); V2509 - V2601 was 454 yuan/ton, down 4 (0.9%) [8]. - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 19.7 tons on October 9, up 0.1 (0.3%); liquid caustic soda Shandong inventory was 11.1 tons, unchanged (0.1%); PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.4 tons, up 6.6 (20.5%); PVC total social inventory was 55.7 tons, up 2.2 (4.2%) [8]. - **Operating Rate**: Caustic soda industry operating rate was 88.2% on October 10, up 1.4 (1.6%); caustic soda Shandong sample operating rate was 86.0%, up 0.4 (0.5%); PVC total operating rate was 80.8%, up 4.7 (6.2%); external - procurement calcium carbide - based PVC profit was - 946 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 5.6%) [8]. Group 5: Polyester Industry Chain Investment Rating Not provided. Core View For PX, the domestic load is high, and the demand side has some support from PTA new device production expectations and short - term polyester load maintenance, but overall, the supply - demand in the fourth quarter is expected to be weak, and the price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. For PTA, due to low processing fees, there are expectations of plant maintenance and new device production. With loose spot circulation and weak cost support, the short - term price may fluctuate weakly. For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, with expected inventory accumulation in October and a weak far - month supply - demand structure. For short - fiber, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by tariffs, with weak supply - demand expectations. For bottle - chip, it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation period, and the processing fee may improve slightly in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Brent crude oil (December) was $63.32 on October 13, up $0.59 (0.9%); WTI crude oil (November) was $58.90, up $0.59 (1%); CFR Japan naphtha was $567, down $10 (- 1.7%); CFR China MX was $679, down $6 (- 0.9%); CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was $785, unchanged (0%); POY150/48 price was 6690 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 0.8%); FDY150/96 price was 6740 yuan/ton, down 40 (- 0.6%); DTY150/48 price was 7800 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 0.6%); polyester chip price was 5704 yuan/ton, down 70 (- 1.2%); polyester bottle - chip price was 5650 yuan/ton, down 18 (- 0.3%); 1.4D direct - spinning short - fiber price was 6410 yuan/ton, down 15 (- 0.2%) [9]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: MEG port inventory was 54.1 tons on October 13, up 3.4 (6.7%); Asian PX operating rate was 79.9% on October 13, up 1.9 (2.4%); Chinese PX operating rate was 87.4%, up 0.7 (0.8%); PTA operating rate was 74.4%, down 2.4 (- 3.1%); MEG comprehensive operating rate was 75.1%, up 2.0 (2.7%); coal - based MEG operating rate was 78.8%, up 4.5 (6.0%); polyester bottle - chip operating rate was 72.4%, up 4.6 (6.8%); direct - spinning long - fiber operating rate was 93.8%, up 0.3 (0.3%); short - fiber operating rate was 94.3%, down 1.1 (- 1.2%); pure - polyester yarn operating rate was 64.7%, up 0.5 (0.8%) [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week, with a slight increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand is close to the historical average. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4690 - 4752. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The main risk points include the implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost - support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [8][10][13] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a small increase in production scheduling [8] - **Demand**: The overall downstream开工率 was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 15.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 23.0 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 32.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 68.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.000 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 77.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand is close to the historical average [8] - **Cost**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2403.45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 3.10%, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [8] - **Other Factors**: The main position is net short with an increase in short positions. On October 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 21 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The number of days of inventory in production enterprises was 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86%. The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Provides data on yesterday's PVC market, including enterprise prices, monthly spreads, downstream开工率, profit, cost, capacity utilization rate, production, and inventory, etc., showing various changes in prices, production, and inventory compared with the previous period [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: Displays the historical trends of the base price, PVC East China market price, and the closing price of the main contract from 2022 to 2025 [18] - **Futures Price and Volume**: Presents the trends of the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume of the main PVC futures contract from September to October 2025, as well as the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [21] - **Spread Analysis**: Shows the historical trends of the spreads of the main PVC futures contract from 2024 to 2025 [24] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related Materials**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, and开工率 of materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and their impacts on PVC production [27][30][32][34] - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC, showing the supply situation of PVC [39][41] - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different PVC products, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, construction area, and infrastructure investment [43][45][47][52][54] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory warehouses, ethylene method factory warehouses, and social warehouses, as well as the number of days of enterprise inventory [57] - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads related to the ethylene method [59] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Provides the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Positive Factors**: Cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to halt or reduce production [10]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand recovery is sluggish after the holiday; there is an oversupply in the downstream polysilicon market. The main reason is the mismatch between production capacity and demand, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 4.30% increase compared to the previous week. The demand was 82,000 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, at a high level. The silicone inventory was 55,100 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of -708 yuan/ton, in a loss - making state. The comprehensive operating rate was 70.43%, flat compared to the previous week, and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 757,000 tons, at a high level, with an import loss of 188 yuan/ton. The cost support in the Xinjiang region has increased [6]. - **Basis**: On October 10th, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 615 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% increase compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 167,850 tons, a 3.29% increase. The main port inventory was 120,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8,550 - 8,820 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% decrease compared to the previous week. The production in October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month. The silicon wafer production was 12.83GW, a 6.89% decrease, and the inventory was 167,800 tons, a 3.38% increase. The silicon wafer production is currently in a loss - making state. The production in October is expected to be 55.68GW, a 5.70% decrease compared to the previous month. The battery cell and component production have mixed performance, with battery cells mostly in loss and components in profit [8]. - **Basis**: On October 10th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 3,585 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply production is expected to increase in the short term and adjust in the medium term. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support is stable. The polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 48,060 - 49,870 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The spot prices of different grades of silicon in East China remained stable [14]. - The social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory showed different trends of change. The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also had corresponding changes [14]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends. The production, inventory, and cost - profit indicators also had corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon SI main contract and the spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon showed different trends over time [19]. - The price of polysilicon main contract and the basis showed different trends over time [23]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprises, and the number of registered warrants showed different trends over time [25]. 3.5 Production and Capacity Utilization - The weekly production of SMM sample enterprises, monthly production by specification, and operating rate of industrial silicon showed different trends over time [29][30][31]. 3.6 Cost - The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang showed different trends over time [35]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance 3.7.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends over time, with factors such as production, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [37][40]. 3.7.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time, with factors such as supply, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [64]. 3.8 Downstream Market 3.8.1 Silicone - The price, production, import - export, and inventory of DMC in the silicone industry showed different trends over time [43][50]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 in the silicone industry showed different trends over time [45][46]. 3.8.2 Aluminum Alloy - The price, import - export, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) of aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [53][56][57]. 3.8.3 Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time [61][64]. - The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry showed different trends over time [67][70][73][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [10][11]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week as maintenance is expected to decrease. The overall inventory is at a high level, while the current demand is close to the historical average. The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4704 - 4766. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors showed mixed trends, with the film and paste resin operating rates being higher than the historical average, while the profiles and pipes operating rates were lower. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand is close to the historical average [9]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,345.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 2.60%, lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling [9]. - **Base Difference**: On October 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 300,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.96%. Ethylene factory inventory was 83,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.11%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86% [12]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. - **Expectation**: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods has strengthened. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand is close to the historical average. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [10]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume Trends**: The report presents the price trends of PVC futures contracts such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price, as well as trading volume and open interest trends, including the net position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [24]. - **Basis Trends**: It shows the historical basis trends of PVC futures, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread from 2024 to 2025 [26]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: - **Lancoke**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2016 to 2025 [30]. - **Calcium Carbide**: Presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2018 to 2025 [33]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price, production trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 to 2025, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory trends of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [37][39]. - **PVC Supply Trends**: - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 to 2025 are presented, along with the profit trends of the two methods [41][42]. - **Production and Inventory**: Displays the daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Demand Trends**: - **Downstream Consumption**: Presents the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [46][48]. - **Downstream Industry Operating Rates**: Shows the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Paste Resin**: Displays the gross profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [51]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: Presents the real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2018 to 2025 [54][55][58]. - **Inventory**: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [60]. - **Ethylene Method**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spread from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025 [65].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core View - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc fluctuate and decline, closing with a negative line, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more short - position reduction. Overall, it was a volume - contracting decline. As prices fell, long - position holders exited actively, and short - position holders exited even more actively. In the short term, the market may fluctuate weakly. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong moving - average support. The short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the strong area; the trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the dominance of short - position strength narrowing. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 will fluctuate weakly [19]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,350, and the basis was + 80, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On October 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 300 tons to 37,950 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,777 tons to 60,644 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average rising, showing a bullish sign [2]. 5. Main Position Analysis - The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, showing a bearish sign [2]. 6. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on October 10 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on that day totaled 281,454 lots, with a total trading value of 3.15265218 billion yuan. The open interest was 215,372 lots, a decrease of 5,828 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 7. Domestic Main Spot Market on October 10 - The price of zinc concentrate was 17,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc ingots was 22,350 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets was 4,000 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes was 4,407 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy was 22,850 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder was 27,610 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide was 20,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide was 7,790 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [4]. 8. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/9/22 - 2025/10/9) - On October 9, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.362 million tons. Compared with September 25, it increased by 7,000 tons; compared with September 29, it increased by 73,000 tons [5]. 9. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on October 10 - The total zinc warrants on that day were 60,644 tons, an increase of 1,777 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on October 10 - The LME zinc inventory on that day was 37,950 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 11. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on October 10 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 160 yuan/ton [12]. 12. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons [14]. 13. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Market on October 10 - The processing fees of zinc concentrates in different regions varied, with the import processing fee for 48% zinc concentrate being 105 US dollars per dry ton [16]. 14. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Transaction and Position Ranking on October 10 - For the contract code zn2511, the total trading volume of members was 284,573 lots, an increase of 76,994 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 73,034 lots, a decrease of 3,740 lots, and the total short - position volume was 71,273 lots, a decrease of 4,868 lots [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, low purchasing willingness of traders, and the downstream real - estate industry in a downward cycle, it should be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coil, with weakening supply and demand, decreasing inventory, blocked exports, and potential domestic policy efforts, it should also be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [7]. Summary by Related Catalog Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is lackluster, inventory is rising from a low level, traders' purchasing willingness is low, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The rebar spot price is 3230, and the basis is 127; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities nationwide is 4.673 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; neutral [2]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Likely Factors**: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may be implemented; neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3340, and the basis is 55; bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities nationwide is 3.293 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; bearish [7]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of hot - rolled coil's main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report indicates that there are both positive and negative factors in the PVC market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [11] - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11] - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.42%, a 0.03 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 337,665 tons, a 2.76% month - on - month increase, and ethylene method enterprise production was 140,610 tons, a 6.27% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in production scheduling [7]. - **Demand side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 47.76%, a 1.5 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 38.91%, a 0.52 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 40.43%, a 0.3 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 63.93%, a 12.9 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 80.31%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 783.9115 yuan/ton, a 19.20% month - on - month increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 645.3653 yuan/ton, a 1.00% month - on - month decrease in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,249.25 yuan/ton, a 2.00% month - on - month decrease in profit, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [7]. - **Basis**: On October 9, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 69 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 318,237 tons, a 3.92% month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250,547 tons, a 3.94% month - on - month increase. Ethylene method factory inventory was 67,690 tons, a 3.81% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 537,700 tons, a 0.56% month - on - month increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.3 days, a 2.91% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [8]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [8]. - **Expectation**: Calcium carbide method cost weakens, ethylene method cost strengthens, and the overall cost weakens. Supply pressure increases this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in production scheduling. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,738 - 4,800 [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, spreads, and inventory data of different types of PVC products and related indicators [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, East China PVC market price, and the closing price of the main contract [18]. 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the spread trend chart of the main contract of PVC futures, including the spreads of different contract periods in 2024 and 2025 [24]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lanthanum carbon**: The report presents data on the price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and daily output of lanthanum carbon [27]. - **Calcium carbide**: It shows data on the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide [30]. - **Liquid chlorine and raw salt**: Data on the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt are provided [32]. - **Caustic soda**: Information on the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, maintenance volume, and inventory of caustic soda is given [35]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows data on the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [39][41]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report presents data on the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different downstream products of PVC. It also includes data on real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment [44][46][48][54][57]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows data on exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [59]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Data on the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads are provided [61]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC, including data on export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import from August 2024 to September 2025 [64].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-10） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿多执行前期订单，库存维持在中低位水平，产地各煤种价格多以稳为主，部分高价煤 种小幅调整，矿企多持看稳心态，湖南地区一煤矿发生事故，短期煤矿安监或将趋严；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1285，基差121；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：节日期间随着焦炭首轮涨价全面落地，焦企利润稍有修复，但经过节前补库之后，焦企对原 料煤采购放缓，叠加下游企业利润有限，对 ...