油脂板块震荡收涨 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨61收于4036林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.53%；棕榈油09合约涨244收于8376元/吨，涨幅3%；豆 油09合约涨230收于7934元/吨，涨幅2.99%；菜油09合约 涨285收于9506元/吨，涨幅3.09%；CBOT美豆油主连涨1.38 收于49.7美分/磅，涨幅2.86%；ICE油菜籽活跃合约涨21.4 收于697.4加元/吨，涨幅3.17%。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [7] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the three major oils and fats fluctuated and rose. Soybean oil's spot tightness boosted the futures price, and the basis was firm before May Day. Palm oil entered the production - increasing season, and the basis decreased significantly this week. Rapeseed oil followed the other oils and fats due to quiet news. Recently, the main contracts of oils and fats shifted to 09, and the soybean - palm oil spread changed little. As of April 25, the spread of soybean - palm oil 09 contract was - 442, and that of rapeseed - palm oil 09 contract was 1130 [2][17] - Looking ahead, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Palm oil is expected to have large fluctuations, and rapeseed oil still has some opportunities to rise [3][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Quotes - Futures: This week, the closing price of palm oil 2509 contract was 8376 yuan/ton, up 244 yuan or 3% week - on - week; soybean oil 2509 contract was 7934 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan or 2.98%; rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9506 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan or 3.1% [12] - Spot: In the Guangdong area, the spot price of palm oil was 9030 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.56%, with a spot basis of P09 + 654, down 194 yuan. In the Tianjin area, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8284 yuan/ton, up 224 yuan or 2.78%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 350, down 6 yuan. In the Jiangsu area, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9626 yuan/ton, up 286 yuan or 3.06%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 120, up 1 [12] Palm Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% month - on - month. During April 17 - 24, 6 new ships were purchased in China. The consumption of palm oil remained at a rigid level, and the weekly trading volume was limited [13] - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions of China was 38.44 tons, up 1.33 tons or 3.58% week - on - week, and down 11.24 tons or 22.62% year - on - year [13] Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: In March 2025, China imported 350.3 million tons of soybeans, down 36.78% year - on - year. From January to March, the cumulative import was 1710.9 million tons, down 7.9%. It is expected that the domestic soybean supply will turn abundant in the second quarter. From April 12 - 18, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 131.54 million tons, with an operating rate of 36.98% [14] - Demand: During the statistical period, the total trading volume of bulk soybean oil in key domestic oil mills was 22.03 million tons, with an average daily volume of 4.406 million tons, up 17.376% week - on - week [14] - Inventory: As of April 18, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 65.04 million tons, down 4.35 million tons or 6.27% week - on - week, and down 18.86 million tons or 22.48% year - on - year [15] Rapeseed Oil Supply and Demand - Supply: As of April 18, the rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills was 7 million tons, remaining the same as the previous period. The production of rapeseed oil was 2.87 million tons, also unchanged. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week, and the production of rapeseed oil will also increase [16] - Inventory: As of this week, the inventory of imported rapeseed was 32 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal oil mills was 12.05 million tons, down 0.65 million tons [16] Future Outlook - Soybean oil: As of the week of April 20, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the five - year average of 5%. About 23% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. The CBOT soybean is expected to fluctuate strongly. Due to the soybean clearance issue in China, oil mills are short of soybeans, but the supply will increase in the second quarter. Soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [3][18] - Palm oil: From April 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 19.88% month - on - month. The export increased from April 1 - 20. It is expected that the soybean - palm oil spread will continue to repair, and palm oil is expected to have large fluctuations [4][19][20] - Rapeseed oil: As of April 20, the export volume of rapeseed this year reached 752.2 million tons, up 72.3% year - on - year. The supply of rapeseed is tight. Although the inventory of rapeseed oil in ports is high, the market circulation is scarce. Rapeseed oil still has some opportunities to rise [6][21]

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货油脂油料月报 春播逐步展开 美豆天气溢价或现 油脂油料 2025 年 4 月 27 日 蛋白粕方面，5月南美市场进入收割季，巴西、阿根廷大豆产量调整空间 不大。由于种植利润可观，巴西农民积极销售，经过4月升贴水回落后，5月巴 西升贴水底部或现，市场区间波动，并有上涨的可能。南美大豆市场对于国际 大豆价格的影响边际效应递减。5月CBOT大豆市场关注焦点从南美转向北美。 从天气预报来看，5月美国产区面临高温的局面，降雨则表现出先多后少的局 面。春播可能会受到影响。5月首度公布的25/26年度供求平衡表成为市场关注 的焦点。美国关税政策的走向则直接影响25/26年美豆出口的多寡。美豆25/26 年度供需是否偏紧则需要关注出口的调整。从目前来看，天气溢价炒作或有增 加，美豆或呈现区间震荡偏强的局面。国内豆粕5月供给前紧后松，油厂开工 恢复或要等到5月中旬左右，5月豆粕库存有回升的预期。豆粕现货、基差承压。 连粕市场在3000-3200之间区间偏强震荡运行。如能出现明显回调，回调买入 等待未来天气溢价的出现。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116号 油脂方面，5月美 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: April 3, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is concerned about the prospects of the US biomass diesel policy, and the USDA monthly crush report shows that the US soybean oil inventory is lower than expected. The sharp rise in US soybean oil drives the entire oil and fat sector. The increase in biomass diesel blending volume may increase the demand for US soybean oil by about 1.8 million tons. - Domestic oils and fats have different upward trends. Soybean oil is mainly traded in the domestic market, and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals in the second quarter puts pressure on soybean oils and fats. The spread arbitrage of going long on soybean oil 09 and short on palm oil 09 performs poorly. - China's additional 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and oilseed cake from Canada has taken effect, and the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed is pending. Affected by policies, future supply is uncertain, which is beneficial to far - month contracts. - Biodiesel policies and trade frictions significantly amplify market volatility risks. Supported by policies, the overall oil and fat market remains strong. Attention should be paid to policy changes. [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China region, the price of first - grade soybean oil is Y2505 + 260 from April to May, Y2509 + 220 from June to July, Y2509 + 230 from June to August, and Y2509 + 240 from June to September. In Dongguan, the quoted price of first - grade rapeseed oil from each factory is 05 + 200, and the quoted price of third - grade rapeseed oil is 05 + 40. In South China, the basis quotes are Dongguan 18 - degree palm oil P05 + 720 yuan/ton and Dongguan 24 - degree palm oil P05 + 460 yuan/ton. - Market Comments: The rise in US soybean oil drives the entire oil and fat sector. The potential increase in biomass diesel blending volume may increase US soybean oil demand. Domestic oils and fats have different trends, and policies have an impact on supply and price trends. [7][8] 3.2 Industry News - As of the end of February, the US soybean oil inventory was 1.924 billion pounds, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.4%, which was much lower than analysts' forecasts. - The 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production is expected to be 167.54 million tons, lower than the previous forecast due to poor weather in Rio Grande do Sul. - Brazil's soybean exports in March reached 16.09 million tons, setting a new monthly record. - The USDA expects US farmers to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans in 2025, lower than market expectations. [9][16] 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China 24 - degree palm oil, the P1 - 5, P5 - 9, and P9 - 1 spreads of palm oil, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Malaysian ringgit. [12][14][15][17][22][23]

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The protein meal market is affected by South American soybeans and US policies, with potential supply - demand imbalances in the domestic market and price fluctuations in the futures market [2][141]. - The global oil market, including US soybean oil, Malaysian palm oil, and domestic oils, faces uncertainties such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors [3][142]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Part I: Market Review - **CBOT Soybeans**: In Q1 2025, it first rose and then fell. Factors such as drought in Argentina, USDA reports, and tariff policies influenced its price movements [7]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: It was slightly stronger than CBOT soybeans. It followed the upward trend of CBOT soybeans in January and then showed its own characteristics due to domestic factors like logistics and inventory [7]. - **International Oils**: They fluctuated within a range. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil were affected by factors such as biodiesel policies, weather, and export data [8]. - **Domestic Oils**: They were stronger than the international market. Different oils had different price trends influenced by import costs, policies, and inventory [8]. Part II: Protein Meal - **South American Soybeans**: Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and exports are increasing. Although some regions had drought, the overall harvest is still expected to be abundant. The premium of Brazilian soybeans is rising [13][14]. - **US Soybeans**: The expected planting area for the new year may decrease. The market is concerned about the planting area report and US tariff policies. In the short - term, CBOT soybeans will continue to oscillate at a low level [22][50]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: In Q2, domestic imported soybeans will arrive in large quantities, and the supply of soybean meal will be abundant. Although the demand from pig and poultry farming remains high, there may be a situation of oversupply, and the spot and basis prices will be under pressure [78]. Part III: Oils - **US Soybean Oil**: In Q2, it still faces demand uncertainties. The export growth space may be squeezed by South American soybean oil, and the biodiesel demand outlook is not optimistic. It is advisable to adopt a range - oscillation strategy [91]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: It enters the production - increasing cycle in Q2, with significant supply growth. However, the export is facing problems, and price cuts may be needed to promote sales. There is a risk of price decline [105][107]. - **Domestic Oils**: In Q2, the differentiation of domestic oils will be prominent. Soybean oil has a demand advantage and may start to accumulate inventory. Palm oil has weak supply and demand, and the price difference with other oils may return. Rapeseed oil has sufficient short - term supply but may accelerate inventory reduction in Q2 [139]. Part IV: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Protein Meal**: The international market focuses on US soybean planting area and tariff policies. The domestic market may face an oversupply of soybean meal. For the Dalian soybean meal market, it is advisable to buy on dips [141]. - **Oils**: US soybean oil should be treated with a range - oscillation strategy. Malaysian palm oil may decline, and domestic oils will show differentiation. Operate by shorting palm oil at high prices and going long on the price differences between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [142].