棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 中东冲突范围扩大 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨188收于4115林吉特/吨，涨幅 4.79%；棕榈油09合约涨396收于8536元/吨，涨幅4.86%； 豆油09合约涨370收于8156元/吨，涨幅4.75%；菜油09合 约涨416收于9726元/吨，涨幅4.47%；CBOT美豆油主连涨 3.85收 ...

农产品早报 2025-06-23 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：010-60167188 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 大豆/粕类 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 周五美豆小幅回落，交易天气较好及贸易战担忧，国内豆粕期货偏强震荡，因贸易战未解除 9 月以后买 船成本上升，且市场预期全球大豆新作产量可能有下降趋势，叠加美豆估值略低，远月豆粕合约有所支 撑，进而带动现货。周末国内豆粕现货稳中下调 10-20 元/吨，华东低价报 2900 元/吨。上周国内豆粕成 交较好，提货达历史同期高位，饲料企业库存天数也环比增加至历史中性水平，观察后续压榨提货进度。 本周 MYSTEEL 预估大豆压榨量达 251.53 万吨，上周压榨大豆 238.42 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我 ...

油脂周报 | 2025-06-22 受多重利好持续提振，油脂偏强运行 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，本周收盘棕榈油2509合约8536元/吨，环比上涨396元，涨幅4.86%；本周收盘豆油2509合约8156元 /吨，环比上涨370元，涨幅4.75%；本周收盘菜油2509合约9726元/吨，环比上涨416元，涨幅4.47%。现货方面， 广东地区棕榈油现货价格8480元/吨，环比上涨250元，涨幅2.95%，现货基差P09+194，环比下跌146元；天津 地区一级豆油现货价格8340元/吨，环比上涨300元/吨，涨幅3.73%，现货基差Y09+184，环比下跌70元；江苏 地区四级菜油现货价格9910元/吨，环比上涨400元，涨幅4.2%，现货基差OI09+184，环比下跌16元。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，马来西亚棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）最新数据显示，2025年6月1-15日马来西亚棕榈鲜果串单产 减少3.85%，出油率下调0.03%，棕榈油产量减少4%。由于前期产量同比增加幅度明显、基数增大，近期棕榈油 产量环比止增下降，供应方面对价格暂无较大压力，持续关注产区天气情况。周内（6.1 ...

油脂油料研究员 从业资格号: F03114441 交易咨询号: Z0022498 电话: 010-63951073 邮箱: sxwei@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 从业资格号: F0273729 交易咨询号: Z0002942 邮箱: wangja@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号: F03116327 交易咨询号: Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 隔夜美豆假期休市,国内豆粕期货偏强震荡,9月以后买船较少、美豆偏紧基本面支撑国内豆粕,远月 合约跟随外盘成本上涨,周四国内豆粕现货稳定,华东低价报 2910 元/吨。MYSTEEL 统计上周国内大豆 小幅去库,豆粕小幅累库,豆粕表需达历史同期最高,饲料企业库存天数也环比增加,观察后续压榨提 货进度。周四国内豆粕成交较好,远月成交放量,提货较好,开机率较高。 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好，覆盖大部分产区，前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程,不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动. 当前美豆端生物柴油 ...

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 王凌辉 Z0019938 | | | | | | | 员知 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月19日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月18日 张跃 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | | 8400 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8350 50 0.60% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports 2.1 Oils and Fats Industry - Malaysian palm oil production is decreasing while exports are increasing, which may support the performance of crude palm oil futures. It is likely to break through and reach the range of 4200 - 4250. In China, there is pressure for a strong shock or short - term correction after reaching a high level. After sideways consolidation around 8500 yuan, it may follow the Malaysian palm oil and reach the previous range of 8800 - 9000 yuan. - Regarding soybean oil, the bio - diesel policies are only proposals. CBOT soybean oil has risen by 8 cents, with a nearly 17% increase, and may have a short - term adjustment. In China, the basis quotation is under pressure due to increasing inventory and the off - season demand [1]. 2.2 Meal Industry - The operation of US soybeans is mainly affected by policies. The new US soybeans have a fast planting progress but a lower good - quality rate. Brazilian soybean sales have declined recently while the crushing profit has recovered. - In China, the arrival volume, inventory of soybeans and bean meal are rising rapidly, and the basis is weak. However, the strength of US soybeans supports domestic bean meal prices. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate strongly, but there is pressure on the upside [2]. 2.3 Corn Industry - In the long - term, the tight supply and increasing demand of corn support its price increase. In the short - term, the price is strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high level, and the market will remain volatile at a high level. Attention should be paid to the wheat market and policy releases [3][5]. 2.4 Pig Industry - The spot price of pigs maintains an oscillating structure. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly, and the demand is weak. The market has no basis for a sharp decline, but the upward driving force is also weak [7][8]. 2.5 Sugar Industry - The global sugar supply tends to be loose, which puts pressure on raw sugar. It is expected to maintain a weak - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar price is also expected to be weak - oscillating due to factors such as increasing import profits and weak demand [11]. 2.6 Cotton Industry - The strong basis of old cotton supports the cotton price, but the expected high yield of new cotton brings long - term pressure. The downstream demand has a marginal improvement but lacks a strong driving force. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate within a range [13]. 2.7 Egg Industry - The national egg supply is large, and the digestion of low - price eggs is okay while high - price eggs have a slow sales. It is expected that the egg price will decline slightly and then stabilize, and there may be some factors trying to boost the price in the later stage [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats Industry - **Soybean Oil**: On June 18, 2025, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8350 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day, with a 0.36% increase; the futures price of Y2509 was 7680 yuan, up 0.87%; the basis of Y2509 was 670 yuan, down 5.10% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8800 yuan, down 10 yuan, a - 0.11% decrease; the futures price of P2509 was 8350 yuan, up 0.80%; the basis of P2509 was 450 yuan, down 14.45%. The import cost of palm oil in Guangzhou Port in September was 8872.7 yuan, up 0.31%, and the import profit was - 523 yuan, up 6.82% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9900 yuan, up 120 yuan, a 1.54% increase; the futures price of O1509 was 9375 yuan, up 1.57%; the basis of O1509 was 525 yuan, up 0.96% [1]. 3.2 Meal Industry - **Bean Meal**: On June 18, 2025, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan, down 30 yuan, a - 1.03% decrease; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan, down 12 yuan, a - 0.39% decrease; the basis of M2509 was - 154 yuan, up 27.27%. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans in July was 197 yuan, down 8 yuan, a - 4.1% decrease [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan, down 10 yuan, a - 0.38% decrease; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan, up 6 yuan, a 0.22% increase; the basis of RM2509 was - 72 yuan, down 22.22%. The crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed in November was 14 yuan, down 62 yuan, a - 442.86% decrease [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - one contract was 4242 yuan, up 5 yuan, a 0.12% increase; the basis of the main soybean - one contract was - 282 yuan, down 1.77%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3690 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean - two contract was 3686 yuan, up 29 yuan, a 0.79% increase; the basis of the main soybean - two contract was 1 yuan, down 2900.00% [2]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: On June 18, 2025, the futures price of Corn 2509 was 2397 yuan, down 2 yuan, a - 0.08% decrease; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port was 2380 yuan, up 10 yuan, a 0.42% increase; the basis was - 17 yuan, up 41.38%. The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 113 yuan, unchanged. The import profit was 521 yuan, down 2 yuan, a - 0.41% decrease [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2694 yuan, up 9 yuan, a 0.34% increase; the spot price in Changchun was 2720 yuan, unchanged; the basis was 26 yuan, down 25.71%. The 7 - 9 spread of corn starch was - 84 yuan, up 9.68%. The profit of Shandong starch was - 68 yuan, up 18.07% [3]. 3.4 Pig Industry - **Futures Market**: The main contract basis was 465 yuan, up 30 yuan, a 6.90% increase; the futures price of Live Hogs 2507 was 13340 yuan, up 35 yuan, a 0.26% increase; the futures price of Live Hogs 2509 was 13835 yuan, up 20 yuan, a 0.14% increase; the 7 - 9 spread of live hogs was 495 yuan, down 15 yuan, a - 2.94% decrease [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Henan was 14300 yuan, up 50 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14450 yuan, down 50 yuan; the spot price in Sichuan was 13850 yuan, down 100 yuan; etc. The daily slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 146597, up 561, a 0.38% increase; the weekly white - meat price was 20.32 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan, a - 0.64% decrease; the weekly piglet price was 27.14 yuan, down 0.9 yuan, a - 3.07% decrease; etc. [7]. 3.5 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: On June 18, 2025, the futures price of Sugar 2601 was 5535 yuan, down 19 yuan, a - 0.34% decrease; the futures price of Sugar 2509 was 5679 yuan, down 12 yuan, a - 0.21% decrease; the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.35 cents/pound, down 0.10 cents, a - 0.61% decrease; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar was - 144 yuan, down 7 yuan, a - 5.11% decrease [11]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan, a 0.17% increase; the spot price in Kunming was 6040 yuan, unchanged. The Nanning basis was 361 yuan, up 22 yuan, a 6.49% increase; the Kunming basis was 186 yuan, up 12 yuan, a 6.90% increase [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons, an 11.63% increase; the cumulative national sugar sales were 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons, a 26.07% increase; the national industrial sugar inventory was 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons, an 8.20% decrease; etc. [11]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The futures price of Cotton 2509 was 13540 yuan, up 15 yuan, a 0.11% increase; the futures price of Cotton 2601 was 13545 yuan, up 15 yuan, a 0.11% increase; the ICE US cotton main contract was 66.57 cents/pound, down 1.07 cents, a - 1.58% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread of cotton was - 5 yuan, unchanged [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14756 yuan, down 6 yuan, a - 0.04% decrease; the CC Index of 3128B was 14857 yuan, down 5 yuan, a - 0.03% decrease; the FC Index: M: 1% was 13604 yuan, down 87 yuan, a - 0.64% decrease [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 345.87 million tons, down 37.53 million tons, a - 9.8% decrease; the industrial inventory was 94.11 million tons, up 1.21 million tons, a 1.3% increase; the import volume was 4 million tons, down 2 million tons, a - 33.3% decrease; etc. [13]. 3.7 Egg Industry - On June 18, 2025, the futures price of the Egg 09 contract was 3691 yuan/500KG, up 42 yuan, a 1.15% increase; the futures price of the Egg 07 contract was 2956 yuan/500KG, up 101 yuan, a 3.54% increase; the egg - producing area price was 2.76 yuan/jin, up 0.68%; the basis was - 839 yuan/500KG, down 55 yuan, a - 7.05% decrease; the 9 - 7 spread was 735 yuan, down 59 yuan, a - 7.43% decrease [14].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The soybean supply is tight due to Argentina's reduced soybean production and Brazil's delayed harvest, and the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio has reached a five - year low. The demand for soybean oil from the food processing and biodiesel industries is increasing, and the rise in international crude oil prices has also had a positive impact on soybean oil futures prices. Therefore, the soybean oil futures market should be treated with a bullish bias [3]. - The overall situation is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations, but a short - term directional choice is pending [6]. - Gold is still bullish. Although the Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it will follow the upward trend. Reaching a new high is only a matter of time, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. - For iron ore, the supply has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports have resumed inventory accumulation. The over - valuation risk has increased. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and important support levels below, and it should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14][15]. - For glass, the supply side has not experienced significant cold repairs due to losses, factory inventories are still high, downstream demand has not seen a continuous increase, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies. Technically, it has shown narrow - range fluctuations recently and should be viewed with a fluctuating mindset [18][19]. - For urea, the domestic daily production is about 20560 tons with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price is in a weak adjustment. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position holders should take profits and beware of a strong long - side rebound [22]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Soybean Oil Futures - On June 18, 2025, the main contract y2509 of soybean oil futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose by 72 yuan to 8040 yuan. The reasons for the recent price increase include tight soybean supply (Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production decreased to 49 million tons, a 6% year - on - year decrease, and Brazil's soybean harvest was delayed, with the global soybean inventory - consumption ratio dropping to 28%, a five - year low), increased demand from the food processing and biodiesel industries, and the positive impact of the 4.28% increase in international crude oil prices on June 17 [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The overall situation is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations, but a short - term directional choice is pending. Today, the three major A - share indexes rebounded after hitting the bottom, oscillated slightly higher in the afternoon, and closed with small positive lines [6][7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Due to the intensification of geopolitical risks caused by Israel's raid on Iran, the external gold market is approaching a new high. Although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it still follows the upward trend. Gold is still bullish, reaching a new high is only a matter of time, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased month - on - month, iron water production has weakened seasonally, and ports have resumed inventory accumulation. The over - valuation risk has increased. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and important support levels below, and it should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply side of glass has not experienced significant cold repairs due to losses, factory inventories are still high, downstream demand has not seen a continuous increase, and it is necessary to wait for the effect of real - estate stimulus policies. Technically, it has shown narrow - range fluctuations recently and should be viewed with a fluctuating mindset [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Urea - The domestic daily production of urea is about 20560 tons with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price is in a weak adjustment. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position holders should take profits and beware of a strong long - side rebound [22].

五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 从业资格号: F0273729 交易咨询号: Z0002942 邮箱: wangja@wkqh.cn 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号: F03116327 交易咨询号: Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号: F03114441 交易咨询号: Z0022498 电话: 010-63951073 邮箱: sxwei@wkqh.cn 周一美豆震荡为主,美豆油仍因 RVO 草案给出的高需求延续上涨,不过美豆粕下跌,全球蛋白过剩, 限制美豆涨幅。周一国内豆粕现货上调 20 元/吨，华东低价报 2860 元/吨。MYSTEEL 统计上周国内大豆 小幅去库,豆粕小幅累库,豆粕表需达历史同期最高,饲料企业库存天数也环比增加,观察后续压榨提 货进度。周一国内豆粕成交尚可,提货较好,开机率较高。 美豆产区未来两周降雨偏好,覆盖大部分产区,前期偏干区域迎来降雨。前期我们预判美豆年度级别进 入了震荡磨底过程,不过走出底部区间仍然需要产量、生物柴油需求、全球宏观、贸易战的进一步驱动. 当前美豆端生物柴油政策 ...

文字早评 2025/06/17 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.35%，创指+0.66%，科创 50-0.21%，北证 50+1.84%，上证 50+0.32%，沪深 300+0.25%， 中证 500+0.48%，中证 1000+0.68%，中证 2000+1.07%，万得微盘+1.38%。两市合计成交 12151 亿，较上 一日-2521 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、5 月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，环比增长 0.61%。1-5 月全国固定资产投资增长 3.7%； 社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%，比上月加快 1.3 个百分点；环比增长 0.93%。 2、5 月各线城市二手房价环比降幅扩大，一线城市环比降幅扩大至 0.7%，二、三线城市环比降幅均扩 大至 0.5%；各线二手房价同比降幅继续收窄，商品房待售面积连续三个月减少。 3、2025 陆家嘴论坛将于 6 月 18 日至 6 月 19 日召开，论坛期间中央金融管理部门将发布若干重大金融 政策，有望呵护股市风险偏好。 4、特朗普表示，他认为以色列与伊朗"有很大可能"达成协议，但也称"有时候他们需要打一仗" ...